WarSclerotic

Syrian pipeline attack raises supply threat – FT.com.

Rebel fighters have blown up a key oil pipeline in Syria, in their first significant attack against the oil industry since the uprising began nine months ago.

Damascus confirmed the attack on Thursday, blaming “terrorist groups”, according to the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency. “A destructive terrorist group targeted a crude oil pipeline in Tal Al-Shur, north-west of Homs refinery,” the agency said.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed that opposition groups attacked the pipeline, which it said was the main feed to the Homs refinery. A video posted on YouTube showed a large plume of black smoke and some fire.

The Homs refinery is the second largest in Syria, with a capacity to process about 107,000 barrels a day from domestic oilfields, according to the US Department of Energy. The country’s largest refinery is located at the Mediterranean port of Banias.

The so-called Arab Spring has disrupted oil markets throughout 2011, with lower oil supplies in Libya due to the civil war, in Yemen and more recently in Syria.

The attack had a brief bullish impact on global energy markets, which focused on concerns about the eurozone debt crisis. ICE Janaury Brent rose in early trading to $109.60 a barrel but in late afternoon trading in London it was down $1.50 to $108.01 a barrel. Nymex January West Texas Intermediate fell $1.69 to $98.78 a barrel.

The explosion, which followed an attack on a smaller pipeline in late July, is a reminder of the fragility of the oil industry in the region, analysts said. The European Union has already imposed an embargo on oil exports from Syria that has forced the country to reduce production from 380,000 b/d to about 250,000 b/d as Damascus has failed to find new customers for its oil.

The attacks come as oil analysts and diplomats anticipate that Syrian crude oil production will drop further in coming months after oil companies Royal Dutch Shell and Total of France ceased their operations in the country following a new round of European sanctions. The EU said last Friday that it had widened its sanctions to include the Syrian state-owned General Petroleum Company, Al Furat Petroleum Company and Syria Trading Oil Company.

The UN has warned that more than 4,000 people have been killed in the unrest since March and more than 14,000 people are believed to have been held in detention. Syrian activists said at least 950 people were killed in November, making it the bloodiest month in the uprising against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Obama: Iran won’t be allowed to develop nuclear weapons – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In White House statement, U.S. President says his administration imposed the toughest sanctions on the Islamic Republic, adding the world was unified against its nuclear aspirations.

By Natasha Mozgovaya

Iran won’t be allowed to reach nuclear weapons’ capabilities, U.S. President Barak Obama said in a statement on Thursday, adding that Iran was isolated in the international community as a result of American efforts.

Earlier Thursday, Iran claimed to have evidence of covert U.S. efforts against it, displaying what it said was a downed U.S. surveillance drone on official Iranian television.

	President Barack Obama during a news conference in the White House briefing room in Washington, Thursday, Dec. 8, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

“Military experts are well aware how precious the technological information of this drone is,” the Fars news agency quoted a chief Iranian military officer as saying.

Addressing American efforts against Iran’s reported attempts to achieve nuclear weapons capabilities, Obama reiterated later Thursday that “no options off the table means I’m considering all options” in regards to Iran, adding that Tehran has a choice if it wanted to end international sanctions and isolation.

Iran, Obama said, could either act “responsibly,” and foreswearing the development of nuclear weapons, which would still allow them to pursue peaceful nuclear power, like every other country that’s a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or they can continue to operate in a fashion that isolates them from the entire world.”

“And if they are pursuing nuclear weapons, then I have said very clearly, that is contrary to the national security interests of the United States; it’s contrary to the national security interests of our allies, including Israel; and we are going to work with the world community to prevent that,” the U.S. president said.

Obama also spoke of what he said were the lengths the U.S. had gone to ensure Iran would pay a price for its nuclear aspirations, saying that it was “very important to remember, particularly given some of the political noise out there, that this administration has systematically imposed the toughest sanctions on Iran ever.”

“When we came into office, the world was divided, Iran was unified and moving aggressively on its own agenda,” the American president said, adding: “Today, Iran is isolated, and the world is unified in applying the toughest sanctions that Iran has ever experienced. And it’s having an impact inside of Iran. And that’s as a consequence of the extraordinary work that’s been done by our national security team.”

Earlier Thursday, U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro said that Washington has been fully cooperating with Israel when it comes to the Iran and its nuclear program.

“There is no issue that we coordinate more closely than on Iran,” Shapiro said during a briefing to reporters in Tel Aviv.

Shapiro’s comments come against the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Israeli coordination on a possible strike on Iran.

General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last month that he did not know whether Israel would alert the United States ahead of time if it decided to take military action against Iran.

5 rockets explode in Israel after IDF kills te… JPost – Defense.

    Palestinian terrorists responded to the IDF assassination of an Al Aksa Martyrs Brigade senior commander on Thursday, as a number of rockets exploded in the Negev desert and sirens sounded in southern communities.

No casualties or damages were reported in any of the blasts, which occurred mostly in open fields and one in the city of Netivot.

The first rocket exploded in the Sedot Hanegev Regional Council at 7:05 p.m.

There were no casualties or damage in the attack, the IDF Spokesperson said via its Twitter account, adding that over one million civilians live in rocket fire range.

A little over an hour later, at 8:10 p.m., three rockets landed in the western Negev. No casualties or damage were reported in the attacks.

At 8:10 p.m. police said two rockets were fired at the western Negev and landed in open territory. Bomb squad units were surveying the scene to locate the rockets.

A third rocket exploded around the same time in the Eshkol Regional Council in an open area.

Sirens rang in southern communities minutes before an additional rocket exploded in Netivot, a city near Sderot, according to the IDF Spokesperson’s Office.

No damages or casualties were reported in that blast.

The defense establishment has told southern residents to stay indoors and near a bomb shelter fearing retribution by Gazan terrorists over the killing of Sobhi Ismail Batash, a resident of Gaza City.

Earlier Thursday, a Hamas spokesperson blamed Israel for escalating violence between the Jewish state and Gaza, and urged Egypt and the United Nations and to pressure Jerusalem against strikes in the Strip.

Fear, speculation in Iran over military strike | Top News | Reuters.

By Parisa Hafezi and Hashem Kalantari

TEHRAN (Reuters) – The threat of military strikes on Iran has upturned the quiet and comfortable lives once enjoyed by many Iranians, ushering in a new era of struggle and fear.

Like many Iranians, Maryam Sofi says the West and Iran are locked in a dangerous game. “I don’t think we can know just yet if war will break out, but I am concerned for my family and my country,” says university teacher Sofi, 42, a mother of two.

“I cannot sleep at night, thinking about destruction and bloodshed if Israel and America attack Iran.”

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails to resolve a dispute over a program they suspect is aimed at developing atomic weapons.

Although sanctions and diplomatic pressure appear to be Washington’s preferred course of action, Israelis have been sending mixed signals, unnerving their Iranian enemies.

Shouting above the clanking hammers of coppersmiths in Tehran’s busy bazaar, nut seller Ali encouraged his customers to hoard his wares: “Buy and store! War is looming!”

Tensions with the West rose after hardline students stormed two British diplomatic compounds in Tehran last week, in protest against new sanctions imposed after the U.N. nuclear watchdog suggested that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

Britain closed its embassy and France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands recalled their envoys.

The diplomatic exodus, swollen by some foreign businessmen based in Tehran, has heightened nervousness in the capital to a level not felt since the outbreak of war with Iraq in the 1980s, or the turmoil that preceded the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed Shah.

“Foreigners are leaving Iran … Isn’t it obvious that they want to attack Iran?,” said a teacher named Mina. “The rich will flee but middle class people like me have to stay and suffer.”

Jane Heshmatzadeh, 59, among many Western women married to Iranians, is torn between fear of attack and loyalty to Iran. “My home is here. It’s not easy to just walk away and leave everything behind,” said the Swede, who has lived in northern Iran for 21 years since marrying an Iranian businessman.

And Iranians have been stoking their own fears with speculation about what would happen if war broke out.

“In case of an attack … we will be imprisoned inside the country … the borders will be closed,” said Zahra Farzaneh, 82, whose son lives in the United States. “I will die without seeing my grandchildren again.”

ATTACKS IN THE GULF

Tehran denies that its nuclear program is anything but peaceful. It says it is developing the technology to generate electricity, not to create an atom bomb.

Analysts say Tehran could retaliate against any military strike by launching hit-and-run attacks in the Gulf and by closing the Strait of Hormuz. About 40 percent of all traded oil leaves the Gulf region through the strategic waterway.

Iranian citizens, already feeling the impact of international sanctions, are starting to take precautionary measures. On social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook, exiled Iranians talk about their concerns, exchanging ideas about how to help their relatives in case of an attack on Iran.

“We have survived a revolution, the (Iran-Iraq) war … Our people cannot tolerate another crisis,” Mitra, and Iranian in Brussels, said on her Twitter page.

“It will be a terrible war … After the first strike the country and then the whole region will turn into a war zone,” said Hossein Alaie, a shopkeeper in central Tehran.

“They will destroy everything. I am stockpiling goods and have told my relatives to do so.”

Analysts say the closure of Western embassies, by cutting off communication channels, will complicate finding a diplomatic solution to the nuclear dispute.

“The withdrawal of diplomats and foreigners means the further diplomatic isolation of Iran … it means cutting the diplomatic channels and heading toward confrontation,” said one analyst in Tehran who did not want to be named.

ISRAELIS LESS PREOCCUPIED

Iran has warned Israel and the United States that Tehran’s response will be tough should they launch a military strike.

Israelis, however, seem not to be preoccupied with a possible conflict and life goes on as before. A December 1 poll by the Saban Center for the Middle East Policy at the U.S. think-tank Brookings found that 43 percent of Israeli Jews backed attacking Iran, while 41 percent opposed.

“I think it’s all media hype,” said Matti Silver, 35, a video technician in Jerusalem.

“Israeli people are divided among themselves. Just as there are fears of an attack, there are also no less heartfelt fears of not taking a preemptive strike at the proper time,” columnist Israel Harel wrote in the Haaretz newspaper.

Regularly scheduled siren tests are being carried out in different parts of Israel, a common phenomenon in a country whose southern areas often come under rocket attack from Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.

“One just sounded in Jerusalem and shoppers in the parking lot of the city’s main indoor mall across the street didn’t even break stride as they headed toward its entrance or their cars,” a witness said.

But in Tehran, the heavy demand for hard currency reflected war jitters.

“People are converting any assets they can. Some are selling jewelry or withdrawing their cash from savings accounts and selling stock market shares to buy dollars,” said Hamid, a currency dealer on a busy street in southern Tehran.

Fear was mixed with defiance.

“America has economic problems and wants to resolve it by attacking Iran … I am ready to sacrifice my blood for my country,” said a member of the hardline Basij militia, who refused to give his name.

The cost of many basic necessities like bread, meat and transportation has shot up, sometimes by over 50 percent in recent months, painful in a country where the average monthly wage is around $600. Despite sharply climbing prices, most grocery stores and markets are still well-stocked.

Many factories in Iran are facing closure because of deteriorating economic conditions, and hundreds of thousands of workers are have taken wage cuts, inflation is surging, and shortages are spreading.

“We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them … I am very worried,” said unemployed worker Ali Tavangar, 45, a father of four.

(Additional reporting by Jeffrey Heller in Jerusalem; Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Rosalind Russell)

NTI: Global Security Newswire – U.S. Boosts Monitoring of Iran.

Thursday, Dec. 8, 2011

The United States has regularly used an advanced radar-evading unmanned aircraft as part of a program of increased monitoring of Iranian nuclear facilities, the New York Times reported on Wednesday (see GSN, Dec. 7).

Flights of high-flying drones from Afghanistan are one example of a much broader program to gather data on Iran’s atomic activities, which Washington and partner nations believe is aimed at giving the Middle Eastern state a nuclear-weapon capability. Tehran says its atomic ambitions do not include military efforts.

The drone program came to light this week with the crash of a RQ-170 Sentinel deep within Iranian territory. Iran has claimed it intentionally brought down the aircraft, an assertion rejected in Washington, which has blamed the crash on an equipment glitch.

The drone was being used in the hunt for subterranean passageways, installations or other locations that might house secret uranium enrichment operations or production of centrifuge components, the newspaper reported. Uranium enriched to high levels can be used to fuel nuclear weapons.

The United States, France and the United Kingdom in 2009 announced the existence of a secret Iranian enrichment plant at Qum. That find, though, seemed to be largely the result of efforts by Israel.

“We’ve got nothing of that scale yet,” said one high-level U.S. official, but “we are looking every day.”

Iranian atomic plants, missile installations and defense positions have been under the eye of U.S. spy satellites for years. Drones, though, can keep watch over a particular location for hours, compared to the minutes offered by any one space orbiter.

“It’s basically like staking out a Mafia social club,” said John Pike, of GlobalSecurity.org. “If I’m just looking at brick-and-mortar targets, satellite’s fine. But if I want to see what people are doing all day, the drone is a whole lot better.”

Along with collecting video, the RQ-170 is likely to be equipped with technology that could identify minute levels of radioactive materials and separate substances that would indicate a nuclear operation, according to nongovernmental specialists.

One of the drones was reported two years ago to be set for deployment in South Korea, from where it would conduct operations in the skies above aspiring nuclear power North Korea (Shane/Sanger, New York Times, Dec. 7).

Employing CIA drones to spy on Iran suggests a growing line of thought in Washington that Iran might be persuaded to give up its contested atomic operations solely through a program of secret operations and orchestrated sanctions, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

The administration is increasing secret operations within Iran, according to present and past U.S. officials. The CIA has used a number of aircraft to conduct dozens of monitoring operations within Iran, sources said.

Increasingly strong rhetoric from the Obama administration and other moves — such as boosting weapons exports to other Middle Eastern states — indicates there is a growing feeling that pursuing a diplomatic path with Iran is not likely to be fruitful, according to sources.

Previously, President Obama had publicly stated his hope for direct talks with Iranian leaders.

“There’s greater skepticism now,” according to Ray Takeyh, a former State Department specialist who helped the Obama administration with its Iran posture in 2009. Foiled in its hopes for bilateral diplomacy, the administration now seeks to “press Iran further and isolate Iran further,” he said.

The United States is also stepping up sanctions against Iran and pressing allies to do the same. However, a Congressional Research Service report issued in recent days indicates that Iran has been able to restrict the harm delivered by four rounds of U.N. Security Council measures and various national sanctions.

The country has been helped by the high cost of oil — its major export — which could climb further if more restrictive punitive measures are taken against the nation’s petroleum or financial sectors, the analysis states.

“The easy stuff has been done already,” according to one high-level administration source. “The choices now are much harder” (Warrick/Miller, Washington Post, Dec. 7).

Meanwhile, Republican presidential aspirants on Wednesday lashed Obama for failing to do enough to protect Israel from Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapon drive and other threats, the Associated Press reported.

Obama has “insulted its prime minister, Bibi Netanyahu, and he’s been timid and weak in the face of the existential threat of a nuclear Iran,” said former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

“This president, for every thug and hooligan, for every radical Islamist, he has had nothing but appeasement,” charged former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

The GOP candidates emphasized that a nuclear-armed Iran must be prevented (David Espo, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, Dec. 7).

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said if elected president he would employ “covert capability” to ensure “regime replacement” in Iran, Agence France-Presse reported.

“They only have one very, very large refinery. I would be focused on how to covertly sabotage it every day,” he said in a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Romney also backed replacing the government in Tehran.

Santorum added at the same event: “We need to say very clearly that we will be conducting covert activity to do everything we can to stop their nuclear program. And that means using covert activity like may have occurred at the missile site.”

“We need to be very clear: Any foreign scientists working in Iran on this nuclear program will be termed an enemy combatant and will be subject — like any other enemy combatant, like Osama bin Laden — to being taken out by the United States government as a threat to this country,” he added (Olivier Knox, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Dec. 8).

There is continued debate within Israel and externally on whether the government there is prepared to carry out a unilateral strike on Iran, Reuters reported.

There have been hints recently that Israel might be readying the use of military force, though Jerusalem might hope that indications of its strike plans would prompt Washington to lean harder on Iran and put greater fear into the leadership in Tehran, according to Reuters.

Publicly, Israeli leaders have said they do not anticipate a near-term assault on their longtime foe. However, the have made it clear that the use of military force has not been ruled out.

There are major questions surrounding a potential Israeli attack, including skepticism that it would be carried out without Washington’s OK and whether it would have a long-term effect on Iranian capabilities.

Netanyahu might take the chance, noting that previous Israeli attacks on known or suspected Iraqi and Syrian nuclear sites did not harm relations with the United States over the long term.

“In the two previous experiences, even an American public, that may not have been persuaded, subsequently found out that the Israelis probably did what was necessary to be done,” said one-time U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer. “So there’s a huge public relations issue here: Can you make a credible case over the head of the administration, and get the American public to buy into the pain that is going to follow — Americans being killed in terrorism, oil shock, whatever it is.”

Only “5 percent” of Israeli thinking on the matter is likely to derive from U.S. cautioning against a strike, according to Kurtzer. Of much greater importance would be Israel’s own security analysis, the former envoy said.

Potential repercussions of an attack could include missile strikes from Iran and armed conflict with militants that partner with Tehran, according to Reuters. Syria might also join the fray, according to former Mossad chief Meir Dagan (Dan Williams, Reuters I, Dec. 7).

Separately, issue specialists on Wednesday continued to debate the pace at which Iran could produce a nuclear weapon, Reuters reported.

“If Iran were to now make an all-out effort to acquire nuclear weapons, it could probably do so in two to six months,” Greg Jones, of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington, stated in an analysis posted on the organization’s website.

A recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency “outlined in unprecedented detail the substantial progress Iran has made in the development of the non-nuclear components needed to produce nuclear weapons,” Jones stated.

He added, though, that the “ineffectiveness of Western counteraction” means Iran does not have to take up a major push for a nuclear weapon. “Rather Iran will probably continue on its current course, producing an ever-growing stockpile of enriched uranium and carrying out additional research to produce non-nuclear weapons components.”

Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Jones’ assessment “is not realistic. He is basing his assessment on a series of worst-case assumptions, including Iran utilizing a method of enrichment that has never been used before for nuclear weapons.”

He said Iran would need “over a year” to produce one weapon, but that one would not be sufficient.

“To take the risk of breaking out of the NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty) they would want to be able to assemble at least a handful of weapons. Going for one would be suicidal,” Fitzpatrick said (Fredrik Dahl, Reuters II, Dec. 8)

NATO chief to Haaretz: We won’t intervene in Syria crisis – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

UN says more than 4,000 people were killed in the 9 month crackdown, but Assad says only a ‘crazy’ leader kills his own people and that most of those killed were government supporters.

By Amir Oren and Reuters

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has no intention to intervene in the Syrian crisis, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Haaretz on Thursday following a meeting of treaty members’ foreign ministers in Brussels.

Rasmussen avoided a direct response on whether or not NATO would intervene should Turkey and Syria be embroiled in a military confect, a situation which could bring Ankara to ask for the support of treaty members.

	A pro-Syrian regime protester waving a Syrian flag as he stands in front of portrait of Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, Syria, Friday Dec. 2, 2011
	Photo by: AP

The NATO chief’s comments came after France earlier Thursday that Syrian President Bashar Assad would not escape justice, rejecting his denial that he ordered troops to kill anti-government protesters.

The United Nations says more than 4,000 people have been killed in a nine-month crackdown, but Assad told the U.S. television channel ABC that only a “crazy” leader kills his own people and that most of those who had died were supporters of the government.

“Like all those responsible for the repression, he will have to pay for the crimes he has committed in Syria for months,” French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said. “He will not escape justice.”

France has been one of the strongest voices pushing for a UN resolution to threaten Syria with sanctions if it does not end the crackdown. Paris is now pushing for the creation of humanitarian corridors to provide aid to the population.

Valero said Paris gave Assad’s “provocative” comments no credibility as they were in stark contrast with the reality on the ground. The United States has also rejected Assad’s remarks.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in Syria have stalled, with Assad rejecting a peace plan offered in early November by the 22-state Arab League.

“The Damascus regime continues to obstinately refuse the demands of the Arab League and the international community,” Valero said. “(But) the Syrian people and international community have judged him.

U.S. Unclear on Israel’s Intentions for Iran – Global Security Newswire Staff – NationalJournal.com.

By Global Security Newswire Staff

December 8, 2011 | 10:38 a.m.

The United States is not sure how seriously Israel is considering using armed force to derail Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapon operations, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

There is a “sense of opacity” in Washington on the developments that might lead Israel to attack its longtime foe, and on when a strike might take place, a high-level U.S. national security official said.

Two senior U.S. senators offered similar thoughts on the matter. “I don’t think the administration knows what Israel is going to do. I’m not sure Israel knows what Israel is going to do…. That’s why they want to keep the other guys guessing–keep the bad guys guessing,” said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Added the panel’s top Republican, Sen. John McCain of Arizona: “I’m sure [administration officials] don’t know what the Israelis are going to do. They didn’t know when the Israelis hit the reactor in Syria. But the Israelis usually know what we’re going to do.”

Speculation has increased in recent months that Israel has been planning military action against Iran, particularly in the wake of a new International Atomic Energy Agency report that further pointed toward potential Iranian nuclear-weapon efforts. Israeli leaders have publicly dismissed such talk, while reaffirming that they have eliminated no options to deal with the perceived threat.

Tehran says that its atomic program has no arms component.

The Obama administration at the moment continues to favor diplomatic efforts and punitive economic measures to address the nuclear standoff. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned on Friday that an attack on Iran could lead to “an escalation” that might “consume the Middle East in confrontation and conflict that we would regret.”

Lack of clarity on the question could allow the administration to say it had not known Israel was planning an assault on Iran, according to Reuters. “There are plenty of instances when the Israelis have undertaken action without informing the United States first,” one former U.S. official said. “So not always should we assume a level of coordination [between Washington and Israe] in advance on all issues.”

“Israel has a long history of conducting military operations from Baghdad to Tunis without giving Washington advance notice,” former CIA official Bruce Riedel noted.

Israel is believed in Washington to have identified “red lines” on Iranian atomic activities that, if breached, could lead to military action, according to an official.

The Israeli air force on Monday allowed journalists to visit a base that houses drones that could provide data for an attack on Iran, the Xinhua News Agency reported. The deputy head of the 200th Squadron at Palmachim Air Base, not far from Tel Aviv, would not address the situation with Iran. “All I can say is that we can get anywhere we want and need to,” said the officer identified only as Major Gil.

The Israeli drone briefing occurred one day after Iran claimed to have shot down a U.S. aerial drone flying over its territory. The United States has acknowledged losing contact with what is believed to be a RQ-170 Sentinel aircraft but denied that it had been intentionally brought down by the Iranian military.

There are concerns about Iranian acquisition of sophisticated U.S. technology, the Los Angeles Times reported on Tuesday. The drone is believed to be equipped with radar-evasion systems and advanced software.  “It carries a variety of systems that wouldn’t be much of a benefit to Iran, but to its allies such as China and Russia, it’s a potential gold mine,” said writer P.W. Singer, who specializes in military use of unmanned technology.

Nonetheless, “I don’t think this is a dagger pointed at the heart of democracy,” said Loren Thompson, a defense-policy analyst for the Lexington Institute. “A lot of information about this aircraft was already known by foreign military intelligence officials.”

He said that an equipment glitch is the probable cause of the drone crash.  “That means what the Iranians have is a pile of wreckage — many small and damaged pieces from which they could glean little in the way of technological insights,” Thompson said.

Meanwhile, Russia on Wednesday expressed opposition to oil embargoes as a lever to persuade Iran to give up its contested atomic program, Reuters reported. The European Union is expected to consider such a ban next month. On Tuesday, European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said there was widespread agreement among the 27-nation bloc on an embargo and that it could also encompass nations such as Russia.

“It is quite obvious that this decision is based on some political motivation…. In these situations, we try to be as neutral as possible,” said Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko. “Do you realize the impact of this decision once it is made?” he added. Diplomatic measures should still be pursued, he said. “As far as the nuclear program of Iran is concerned, we try to discuss these issues in other forums, for example the U.N. Security Council.”

South Korea is also trying to determine how to address stepped-up U.S. calls to penalize Iran, the Yonhap News Agency reported.

Washington and other capitals have already strengthened sanctions against Iran in recent weeks. The Obama administration sent Robert Einhorn, the State Department special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, to Seoul to raise the matter with South Korean officials. “We cannot talk about anything about Iran,” one South Korean official said. “We cannot say whether or not the government is considering any sanctions at this moment, not to mention of any specific measures or timetable.”

South Korea and Iran in 2011 conducted roughly $14.5 billion in trade through October. In 2010 bought Seoul bought more than 8 percent of its oil from Tehran and is a major automobile exporter to the Middle Eastern state.

“We have maintained relations with Iran relatively well since Seoul imposed sanctions against an Iranian bank last year, but it is yet another quite sticky situation being asked again to take actions against the country,” one government source said.

Home Front Command Drill Panics Students – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Home Front Command emergency drill

Israel news photo: Flash 90

A Home Front Command drill testing air raid sirens in the north on Thursday panicked students who were unaware the test was taking place.

The practice has become routine as Home Front Command continues its efforts to prepare Israel’s citizens for whatever may soon come their way from surrounding Arab nations, as well as from its enemies within, be that war, or peace. The IDF had continued testing air raid sirens Thursday with drills in the north and in Jerusalem. The first test was conducted in the Galilee at about 10:00 a.m., but in one school in the Tzfat area, a number of students went into a panic, not realizing the siren wasn’t real.

“They didn’t let the school know! Why didn’t they let the school know?” a student exclaimed in an interview with Arutz Sheva following the drill. “Two girls panicked, and then we walked quickly downstairs to the dorm mother,” she continued. The student requested anonymity since she was not authorized to speak to media.

“We didn’t go to the shelter,” she added, admitting that because several other students had figured out that it was probably a drill, they had decided “there was no need.” Still, she said, “There are girls here from all kinds of places in the country, who live in places where rockets have exploded and who could have been traumatized by this. The students should have been told,” she contended.

Later in the morning, the student discovered that other students also were frightened, prompting school officials to attempt to soothe the girls by making an announcement over the intercom that the siren was, in fact, only a drill and not to panic.

Earlier this week, a similar drill was conducted in communities in southern Israel, in Israel’s northeastern Negev region, and in the upper Galilee the day before.

Late last month, terrorists in southern Lebanon fired a barrage of four Katyusha missiles at northern Israel in an attack that military analysts reviewed to determine whether it might be a harbinger of things soon to come. One struck a gas tank, which exploded. A second struck a chicken coop in an agricultural community. Two others landed in open areas. Although there was damage and people were traumatized, no one was physically injured. The IDF returned fire to the source.

Mental health professionals have estimated that up to 80 percent of Israel’s population suffer from some form of trauma — and a significant percentage of those meet criteria for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) as a result of living with the constant threat of terror attacks.

Oil pipeline destroyed in Syria; protesters launch civil disobedience campaign.

Al Arabiya

Thursday, 08 December 2011

Syrian armed forces carry out a live ammunitions exercise in an undisclosed location. (Reuters)

inShare0

Connecting the Feckless Foreign Policy Dots.

There are no coincidences in politics. There is only calculation, and few administrations have been as calculating as this one as we head into the 2012 presidential campaign. Moreover, nowhere has that calculation been as circumspect as this president’s treatment of Israel, or its reticence in doing what is necessary to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It’s time to connect some dots that need connecting.

We begin with last Wednesday’s speech by Howard Gutman, the Obama administration’s ambassador to Belgium. Speaking before an audience at a Jewish conference on anti-Semitism organized by the European Jewish Union (EJU), Gutman warned the audience that he was apologizing in advance, if what he had to say might not be to their liking. It wasn’t. Gutman explained that there were two types of anti-Semitism. The first type is “traditional,” which one assumes is the “good old fashioned kind,” in all its “Jews descended from apes and pigs” and “drink the blood of Muslims” glory. That kind of anti-Semitism should be condemned, Gutman contended.

On the other hand, a distinction should be made between that kind of anti-Semitism and the anti-Semitism that arises from the ongoing conflict between the Jews and the Palestinians. A peace treaty between the two entities would significantly diminish that kind of anti-Semitism, according to Gutman. Previous to his speech, but obviously used as a rationale for it, Gutman showed a video of his appearance at a Muslim school in Brussels. He was greeted applause, which he contended was the kind of reception a Jew who supports the president’s policy of “openness” to Islam could expect to receive.

The audience, comprised of Jewish lawyers from across Europe, was visibly stunned. The next speaker up, German attorney Nathan Gelbar offered a scathing rebuttal:

“The modern Anti-Semite formally condemns Anti-Semitism and the Holocaust and expresses upmost sympathy with the Jewish people. He simply has created a new species, the ‘Anti-Zionist’ or, even more sophisticated, the so-called ‘Israel critic,’” said Gelbar. “The ‘Israel critic’ will never state ‘Jews go home,’ but is questioning the legality of the incorporation of the State of Israel and therefore the right for the Jewish people to settle in their homeland. He will not say the Jews are the evil of the world, but claim that the State of Israel is a major cause for instability and war in the region. There is no other country, no other people on this planet the ‘Israel critic’ would dedicate so much time and devotion as to the case of Israel.”

Why is a hack like Howard Gutman an ambassador in the first place? Perhaps being a major fundraiser for president Obama’s 2008 election campaign was a contributing factor. Gutman was a campaign bundler who put together $500,000, including a personal contribution of $2300. He was nominated as the ambassador to Belgium by the president a year later.

On Sunday, both White House Speaker Tommy Vietor and Gutman himself were in damage-control mode. “We condemn anti-Semitism in all its forms and believe there is never any justification for prejudice against the Jewish people or Israel,” said Vietor. “I strongly condemn anti-Semitism in all its forms. I deeply regret if my comments were taken the wrong way,” said Gutman. “My own personal history and that of my family is testimony to the salience of this issue and my continued commitment to combatting anti-Semitism.”

Next up, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Last Friday, Panetta, like Gutman, underscored the Obama administration’s unsubtle contention that the chief impediment to peace in the Middle East is Israel. According to Panetta, “Israel can reach out and mend fences with those who share an interest in regional stability — countries like Turkey and Egypt, as well as Jordan. This is not impossible. If the gestures are rebuked, the world will see those rebukes for what they are. And that is exactly why Israel should pursue them.” With respect to peace talks, it was Panetta’s contention that Israel should “Just get to the damned table.”

Let’s review why those fences are broken. It was Turkey who engineered the 2010 flotilla seeking to break the Gaza blockade. Eight Turks and one Turkish-American were killed when flotilla flagship, Mavi Marmara, was boarded by Israeli commandoes. Turkey was incensed by Israel’s refusal to apologize for the incident, and a U.N. report calling the blockade legal.

As for Egypt, who, exactly, should Israel be mending fences with? It was the Obama administration that stood aside and allowed long-time U.S. ally — and Egyptian/Israeli treaty-maintainer — Hosni Mubarak to fall. Who took his place? In the first round of elections since Mubarak’s ouster, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Peace Party won 40 percent of the vote, and the Salafist party al-Nour came in second, with 20 percent of the tally. Writer Mark Steyn illuminates the reality. “In the so-called Facebook Revolution, two-thirds of the Arab world’s largest nation is voting for the hard, cruel, bigoted, misogynistic song of sharia.”

As for Jordan, it was King Abdullah II who last May praised the reconciliation of Fatah and Hamas, and promised to help them in “confronting Israeli unilateral measures,” with respect to Jerusalem. That would be the same Hamas still considered a terrorist organization by the United States, one whose charter still calls for the annihilation of Israel. Those are the “fences” Mr. Panetta contends must be mended. By Israel, no less.

Yet it is with respect to Iran that the administration’s true fecklessness is revealed. Mr. Paentta offered the typical bromides. “No greater threat exists to the security and prosperity of the Middle East than a nuclear-armed Iran,” he said, adding that Obama has not ruled out military force with respect to that threat. Then came the hedge. “We have to be careful about the unintended consequences” of an Israeli or U.S. attack.

Unintended consequences of an attack? What Mr. Panetta tellingly leaves out of the equation is the step taken by Britain in the latest rounds of sanctions against the world’s most formidable terror threat. It was a step that undoubtedly precipitated the attacks on their embassies last week by government-endorsed thugs masquerading as students, despite Vice President Joe Biden’s stunningly naive statement that there was “no indication” the attacks were orchestrated by the regime. What was the step Britain took? It was the first and only nation so far to completely sever its ties with the Iranian Central Bank.

Why hasn’t the United States done the same? The administration claims the move, which calls for freezing US-based assets of any financial institutions that do business with the Central Bank, “could shatter a growing but fragile global consensus” and drive oil prices substantially higher, “inadvertently lining Iran’s pockets.”

How well did that argument resonate with the Senate? They voted 100-0 to cut off Iran’s Central Bank from the global financing system. And one of the bill’s co-sponsors, Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ), revealed the flaw in Leon Panetta’s contention. “This is the maximum opportunity to have a peaceful diplomacy tool to stop Iran’s march to nuclear weapons,” said Menendez.

Yet the bill still contains an out for the president if such sanctions disrupt global oil supplies, or conflict with America’s national security interests. Reality check? Saudi Arabia has already indicated a “great interest” in picking up any slack engendered by blocking Iran’s oil exports. Their spare capacity of 4 million barrels of oil produced per day, could more than offset Iran’s exports, currently totaling only 2.5 million barrels per day.

So why the hesitation on the part of the administration? Because Mr. Obama has an election to win in 2012, and anything that would even hint at another economic disruption, even one that could conceivably force regime change in Iran, will be met with the highest level of skepticism.

That skepticism includes another calculated, election-campaign dynamic. In order to maintain his bona fides with his environmentalist constituency, the president ordered yet another environmental review of the proposed Keystone KL oil pipeline project. It would delay any decision about the $7 billion effort until after the 2012 election. How disingenuous is the additional eighteen months? “The Keystone pipeline has already been held up for more than three years, despite being deemed environmentally sound,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).

In other words, the president is willing to delay any effort to improve America’s level of oil independence, even as it urges caution in putting the hammer down on Iran. That may benefit the president. But it is a policy completely at cross-purposes with America’s national security interests. Interests that should prioritize weaning ourselves off oil imports from hostile nations as quickly as possible.

Those are the latest dots all that must be connected to an Obama administration purporting itself to be a tireless supporter of Israel, and one determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, no matter what it takes. There is time to rectify all of the above: Howard Gutman can be fired, a concerted effort can be undertaken to put the onus on peace in the Middle East exactly where it belongs, and a forceful confrontation of Iran that could engender regime change without all-out military action can be initiated — -even as we improve our domestic oil capacity.

None of it is likely to occur. And perhaps the only thing more likely than that prediction is the fact that Jewish American liberals will continue to support the most anti-Israeli administration since the one headed by Jimmy Carter, the president who authored “Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid.”