WarSclerotic

Gov’t mulling Iron Dome system in Haifa – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Home Front Defense Minister Vilnai says missile defense system may be deployed near Haifa to protect oil refineries in case of Hezbollah strike

Yoav Zitun

Home Front Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said Tuesday Israel was considering the permanent deployment of an Iron Dome missile defense battery in the Haifa Bay area to protect the oil refineries there.

During the Second Lebanon War in 2006 a rocket fired from Lebanon exploded in an open area near one of the refineries in Haifa. A direct hit on one of the refineries may cause numerous casualties as a result of leakage of dangerous chemical substances.

“The refineries are crucial to the continued functioning of Israel’s economy at times of emergency,” he said during a meeting with Oil Refineries CEO Pinchas Buchris and the company’s chairman of the board, Yossi Rosen.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallahsaid earlier in the day that the Lebanese Shiite group was capable of attacking “way beyond Haifa.”

Vilnai said protecting the refineries was “vital to the continued functioning of Israel’s economy at times of crisis.”

Buchris and Rosen, for their part, briefed the minister on the various defense mechanisms recently installed in the refineries.

They said the employees staged an exercise simulating an attack on the refineries. Vilnai was also presented with a plan detailing how the refineries would function at a time of war. According to the plan, work at the refineries would go on in order to maintain “economic continuity.”

Vilnai’s office has drafted a plan aimed at protecting the refineries in case of an attack. Israeli defense officials estimate Hezbollah would not hesitate to target the refineries.

Arab League rebuffs Damascus as Clinton to meet Syrian opposition in Geneva.

Al Arabiya

Tuesday, 06 December 2011

Demonstrators protest against President Bashar al-Assad in all Baidah, near Homs. The sign reads: Yes for Freedom, No to Sectarianism. No for the Assad gang. (Reuters)

inShare1

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

US stealth drone RQ-170

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has placed the Revolutionary Guards on a war footing amid fears that the West and Israel are about to attack their nuclear program, the London Telegraph, which has good ties with British intelligence, reported early Tuesday, Dec. 6.
Monday, debkafile reported increasing indications that the Middle East is set for war, including an attack on Iran, between mid-December 2011 and mid-January 2012.
In obedience to Khamenei’s directive to take all necessary measures to protect the regime, the Guards chief Gen. Mohammed Ali Jaafari has raised the operational readiness status of the country’s forces in preparation for external strikes and covert attacks. He ordered Iran’s arsenal of long-range Shahab missiles redistributed to secret sites around the country where they would be safe from enemy attack and could be used to launch retaliatory strikes; Guards units scattered to preset defense lines and air force “rapid reaction units” deployed after carrying out extensive exercises for responding to an enemy air attack on nuclear and strategic military targets.
Saturday, Dec. 3, Israel’s defense minister Ehud Barak, when asked about a covert war against Iran, denied it was taking place. Twenty-hours later, this clandestine war peaked in a major coup for Iran, its capture of the sophisticated US RQ-170 Sentinel stealth reconnaissance drone. Tehran reported that, apart from slight damage, the aircraft was shot down complete with all its top-secret electronic systems in working condition.
An American military source confirmed that Iran had the RQ-170, but added there was “absolutely no indication the drone was shot down.”

This leads to the conclusion that the Iranians were able to control the drone from a distance (over Afghanistan) and guide it across the border to land to Iran, say debkafile‘s military sources. The slight damage would then apply to the wings and may have been caused when it was brought in to land by an Iranian crew unused to handling an electronic warfare craft.
Our sources add that possession of the drone is more than just a major intelligence coup for Tehran; it has acquired an important military edge before any overt military operation has been launched. Western and Israeli war planners now have cause to fear that Iran has penetrated the heart of their most secret intelligence and electronic technological hardware for striking its nuclear infrastructure. If Tehran is capable of reaching out and guiding an American stealth drone into landing from a distance, it may also be able to control the systems of other aircraft, manned or unmanned.
This feat recalls Hizballah’s surprise attack on an Israeli missile boat  in the 2006 Lebanon war when its Chinese-made shore-to-ship C-802 missile was able to override the ship’s advanced electronic defense systems and so put the Israeli Navy out of action within range of the Lebanese coast.
According to an expert quoted by the Telegraph’s senior military commentator Con Coughlin, the campaign of assassinations, cyber war and sabotage of recent weeks “looks like the 21st century form of war.

Analysis: U.S. ramps up warnings on Iran strike risks – World news – Mideast/N. Africa – Iran – msnbc.com.

WASHINGTON — The United States has pointedly ramped up its public warnings over the last few weeks about the risks of military action against Iran, accompanied by private words of caution to Israel, which sees Tehran’s nuclear push as a direct threat.

But so far, at least, comments by U.S. and Israeli officials suggest that Washington’s private lobbying has yet to convince Israeli hard-liners and even some moderates that alternatives, like sanctions and diplomatic pressure, will ultimately succeed in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

It is unclear whether the differing views are any indication about whether Israel might be moving closer to a go-it-alone military strike, an option Tel Aviv has ruled out for the moment. Indeed, that may ultimately not be the case.

Rhetoric has periodically escalated over the years, often bolstering pushes – like the present one – for tougher sanctions against Iran.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a speech on Sunday widely seen within Israel as hinting about policy on Iran, spoke about making “the right decision at the right moment,” even when allies object.

A nuclear-armed Iran, Netanyahu has said, is an existential threat to Israel.

Netanyahu’s comments came on the heels of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s strongest comments yet explaining America’s concerns about a military strike on Iran.

Panetta said it risked “an escalation” that could “consume the Middle East in confrontation and conflict that we would regret.” It could also hobble the fragile U.S. and European economies and might do little to actually stop Iran from getting an atomic weapon – a goal Tehran denies having.

Iran says its uranium enrichment is for peaceful purposes.

Panetta, citing conversations with his “Israeli friends,” said an attack would only set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two years at best. He also warned about blowback to U.S. forces in the region.

“The United States would obviously be blamed and we could possibly be the target of retaliation from Iran, striking our ships, striking our military bases,” Panetta told a forum in Washington on Friday.

Panetta privately outlined U.S. concerns in talks with Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Canada last month, including the impact a strike would have on the world economy.

Analysts say Tehran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway where about 40 percent of all traded oil passes.

GLOBAL MELTDOWN

President Barack Obama, who is gearing up for a re-election battle next year, has had more trouble than his Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, in winning Israeli trust.

Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to the Obama administration and former senior CIA expert on the Middle East, said Washington was deeply wary of being dragged into a conflict that, from its perspective, might be unnecessary.

“Obama knows a strike on Iran by Israel will create a regional war and a global economic meltdown that America will have to clean up,” Riedel said.

“And he knows Israel – with its own considerable nuclear arsenal – does not face an existential threat from a nuclear Iran.”

But, even considering likely retaliation on U.S. forces, the top U.S. military officer told Reuters in an interview this week he did not know whether the Jewish state would even give the United States notice ahead of time if it decided to act.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also suggested there was a gap in perspective between Israel and the United States, which sees sanctions and diplomatic pressure as the right path to take on Iran.

“I’m not sure the Israelis share our assessment of that. And because they don’t and because to them this is an existential threat, I think probably that it’s fair to say that our expectations are different right now,” Dempsey said.

Iran is facing another wave of sanctions following a report last month by the U.N. nuclear watchdog which said Tehran appeared to have worked on designing an atom bomb and may still be pursuing secret research to that end.

Barak said on Thursday an Israeli attack on Iran was not imminent. But, asked about Dempsey’s comments to Reuters, Barak said Israel “greatly respects” the United States.

“But one must remember that ultimately, Israel is a sovereign nation and the Israeli government, defense forces and security services – not others – are responsible for Israel’s security, future and existence,” Barak said.

Barak, in a radio interview, said Israel would be very glad if sanctions and diplomacy brought the Iranian leadership to a clear decision to abandon its nuclear military program.

But, “unfortunately, I think that is not going to happen,” he said.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards prepare for war – Telegraph.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been put on a war footing amid increasing signs that the West is taking direct action to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s spiritual leader, issued a directive to the heads of all the country’s military, intelligence and security organisations to take all necessary measures to protect the regime Photo: AP

Its ballistic missile programme suffered a major setback on Nov 12 after an explosion at the regime’s main missile testing facility at Bidganeh, about 30 miles west of Tehran.

Regional threats t… JPost – Iranian Threat – Opinion & Analysis.

    There are too many signals to ignore the possibility that war might be looming on the horizon.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu declared that leaders are tested by their ability to make decisions that might be unpopular among their own people and around the world.

While a possible Israeli strike against Iran was not specifically mentioned, Netanyahu’s speech over the grave of Israel’s founding father David Ben-Gurion came just two days after US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta spoke out against Israeli unilateral action.

As Netanyahu spoke, Syria launched a Scud B missile.

While not the most sophisticated missile in its arsenal, the Scud was detected by Israeli radars, which tracked its trajectory and flight path. It was also noticed by the Israeli intelligence community, which understood President Bashar Assad’s message that he still controls his missiles and could use them against Israel or other Western targets if they try to topple his regime.

Next, came Netanyahu’s decision to hold Likud primaries by the end of January. The move, which came as a surprise, is Netanyahu’s way of reaffirming his leadership and support among his constituents.

This way, if he were to decide at a later date to attack Iran, he would be able to say that he did so as the uncontested leader of the country, or at least of Likud.

And finally, there is the Home Front Command exercise being held on Tuesday in the North and will simulate a chemical missile attack. The drill is part of the command’s annual training regimen but is also part of a series of exercises, like the one held last week to simulate a biological attack and the one that will be held next month to simulate a radioactive dirty bomb attack.

When will this war take place? No one knows yet.

While the press has been full of headlines in recent weeks about a possible Israeli strike against Iran, the cabinet has yet to make such a decision.

Contrary to what has been reported, the differences between the ministers is not over the extent or gravity of the threat – all agree Iran needs to be stopped – but rather when the right time would be for Israeli action.

Some, like Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, appear to be arguing that time is against us due to Iranian efforts to harden and disperse their facilities. Others, like Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya’alon and former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, believe there is time at least until we know for certain that Iran is building the bomb.

The possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran has always been on the table and while it was occasionally discussed over the years, in today’s global political climate, every comment, every exercise and every political move can be interpreted as being part of the a larger Iranian-connected plot.

The mysterious explosions that rocked the Iranian missile base near Tehran last month and the Isfahan nuclear facility are part of the covert war the West is waging against Iran. Even if the explosions were not caused by sabotage, the general atmosphere in Iran is one of suspicion and fear, particularly among scientists who are involved in the country’s missile and nuclear programs.

That is why even if Israel was not behind the bombings, it has no interest in making this publicly known since it is in its interest for the Iranians to think their program is vulnerable and can be infiltrated.

The combination of these bombings, together with the beating of war drums by Netanyahu and the new round of sanctions being imposed by the West are all part of the general effort to get the Iranians to rethink their current course of action.

The problem is that all assessments in Israel are that without sanctions on the Iranian energy sector it is skeptical that the Islamic regime will stop its program no matter how hard the sanctions are and how isolated Tehran becomes around the world.

In the meantime though, Iran and its ally, Syria, are showing the world there is a price for trying to interfere in their affairs. The launching of the Scud combined with the takeover of the British Embassy in Tehran last week is their way of explaining to the world that the covert war against them will not go unanswered.

‘Iranian forces go on war alert’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Iran moving missiles to secret sites, Western officials tell British paper; earlier, Tehran residents reported to stockpile goods, fearing imminent strike

Growing panic in Iran? The commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards has ordered his forces to raise their operational readiness ahead of a possible war or strike on the country’s nuclear facilities, The Telegraph reported late Monday.

The British newspaper quoted Western intelligence sources as saying that Iran will be moving ballistic missiles, explosives and troops to defensive positions, in order to offer a quick response in the case of an attack by Israel or the United States.

According to the report, Revolutionary Guards Commander Mohammed Ali Jaafari directed his forces to deploy Iran’s long-range missiles at secret sites nationwide. Meanwhile, the country’s Air Force has reportedly set up “rapid reaction units” that would respond to aerial assaults.

A senior Western intelligence official was quoted as saying: “There is deep concern within the senior leadership of the Iranian regime that they will be the target of a surprise military strike by either Israel or the US.”

“For that reason they are taking all necessary precautions to ensure they can defend themselves properly if an attack happens,” the official said.

Tehran residents fear strike

Meanwhile, international schools in Iran have shut their doors after hardline students stormed the British embassy last week, stoking ordinary Iranians’ fears that foreigners are about to pull out of the Islamic Republic ahead of a US or Israeli-led attack.

Protesters stormed and ransacked Britain’s two diplomatic compounds in Tehran on Tuesday, prompting Britain to evacuate its staff from the country and expel Iranian diplomats from London.

The French school in Tehran is located on British embassy grounds and children were in class when the mob swarmed through the compound gates. Windows at the German school nearby were shattered in the attack, but the British school escaped the worst of the chaos after teachers sent pupils home early.

The schools have remained shut since, forcing hundreds of children to stay home. Foreign teachers and their families have left Iran, parents were told, though the French school hopes to resume lessons on Sunday, and Britain’s in the New Year.

‘We are going to be attacked’

Iran’s isolation over its nuclear ambitions, its claim to have shot down a US spy drone in its airspace on Sunday and the British embassy attack are feeding ordinary Iranians’ fears.

“Many foreigners are leaving Iran … I suspect that there will be military action … we will become another Iraq,” said architect Mahsa Sedri, 35. “Obviously something is going on … otherwise the foreigners would not leave Iran.”

“We are going to be attacked … I sense it … I am pulling out my money from the bank to have cash in hand in case of an attack,” said government employee Hassan Vosughi. “I and all my friends have stockpiled goods at home.”

Washington and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iranian nuclear facilities should diplomacy fail to resolve the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, a position that has only hardened since the critical report by the International Atomic Energy Agency last month.

Reuters contributed to the report

Iran Revolutionary Guard raises alert ahead of possible strike, report says – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Western intelligence sources, speaking with U.K.’s Telegraph newspaper, say chief of military corps issues orders to disperse long-range missile batteries, heighten security.

By Haaretz and The Associated Press

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has raised its alertness level fearing a military strike by a foreign power, Western intelligence sources told the U.K. newspaper the Telegraph on Monday.

According to the Telegraph report, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Mohammed Ali Jaafari issued a command to raise operational readiness, fearing what the report called “potential external strikes and covert attacks. ”

Will Iran’s defensive preparedness weaken Western resolve for military intervention? Join the discussion on Haaretz.com’s Facebook page.

	A Shahab missile. Even a hundred of them wouldn’t bring Israel down, one reckless voice said.
	Photo by: Reuters

Raised readiness levels, the sources indicated, included plans to disperse the country’s long-range missile batteries, as well as sending artillery and guard units to “key defensive positions.”

The Telegraph report came after American and Israeli intelligence officials told the New York Times earlier Monday that a recent explosion at a military base near Tehran was a major setback for Iran’s long-range missile program and completely destroyed the base.

The officials said that surveillance photos showed that the Iranian base was a central testing center for advanced solid-fuel missiles, which are better equipped than older, liquid-fuel designs to carry warheads long distances.

According to the report, satellite photos taken after the blast show that the base was almost completely destroyed, which amounts to a serious setback to Tehran’s missile development, intelligence officials said.

Earlier this month, Iran reiterated that the explosion at a military base near Tehran that killed 17 members of the Revolutionary Guards was an accident.

Last week, a top Israeli security official said that the explosion could delay or stop further Iranian surface-to-surface missile development, but warned that it was far from halting all of Iran’s military options.

Iran has vehemently denied that the blast was carried out by Israel or the United States, and Western intelligence and defense officials say the consequences – the setback of Iran’s military program – are more important than the cause.

“Anything that buys us time and delays the day when the Iranians might be able to mount a nuclear weapon on an accurate missile is a small victory,” one Western intelligence official told the New York Times. “At this point, we’ll take whatever we can get, however it happens.”

Also Monday, U.S. military officials said that they were concerned that a stealthy surveillance drone that crashed in Iran could give Tehran the opportunity to glean information about the classified program.

But experts said Monday that even if the Iranians found parts of the unmanned spy plane, they will likely get little from it. And since it probably fell from a high altitude, there may be very few large pieces to examine.

The RQ-170 — known as the Sentinel — has been used in Afghanistan for several years. U.S. officials acknowledge that the military lost control of one of the stealthy drones while it was flying a mission over western Afghanistan. The official IRNA news agency has said that Iran’s armed forces shot it down.

U.S. officials have rejected that claim.