Archive for November 2011

Israel’s Closing Window to Strike Iran

November 24, 2011

Israel’s Closing Window to Strike Iran.

David Makovsky , The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, November 24, 2011

In a revealing interview with CNN last weekend, Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak hinted that Israel and the world may reach the limit of their capacity to effectively strike Iran’s nuclear facilities within as little as six months. His comments suggest that unless additional international sanctions deter Tehran’s nuclear efforts, Israel is increasingly likely to opt for a military option while it still can.

New Statements Reflect Longstanding Concerns – Israel has repeatedly warned of the need to halt the Iranian nuclear program — whether by sanctions or a military strike — in light of its pace and the quantity of enriched uranium it has produced. Yet Barak’s statements mark the first time an Israeli official has made clear that the ability to target the program may be limited by technical capacity, firmly indicating that the window for a military option may be closing.

Whether or not Iran is able to produce a nuclear weapon in the coming years, Barak argued, the regime’s efforts to disperse and fortify its facilities mean that attempted strikes against them are unlikely to have the desired impact after next year. As he explained, “It’s true that it won’t take three years — probably three quarters [of a year] — before no one can do anything practically about it because the Iranians are gradually, deliberately entering into what I call a zone of immunity, by widening the redundancy of their plan, making it spread over many more sites.” When pointedly asked about the date at which a strike becomes impossible, he replied, “I cannot tell you for sure, nor can I predict whether it’s two quarters or three quarters [of a year]. But it’s not two or three years.” Yet he refused to answer direct questions about an Israeli strike, insisting that such a subject should not be discussed on television.

Barak has repeatedly made clear in the past that inaction now guarantees inaction later, since a nuclear Iran would be as untouchable as nuclear North Korea is today. From this perspective, a nuclear Iran would profoundly change the balance of power in the Middle East, intimidating moderate forces and unleashing a regional arms race that could even proliferate nuclear technology to nonstate actors.

If Barak is to be believed, little time remains for sanctions to have the necessary effect. Indeed, the potency and timing of new sanctions are inversely related to the probability of an Israeli military strike. Israel will presumably try to determine whether the latest sanctions are likely to succeed before it loses its ability to attack. And if the window for a strike will close by next fall, waiting until late 2012 to impose even tougher sanctions would already be too late for Israel.

Although there is wide agreement in Israeli decision making circles that sanctions are preferable to a military strike, and that they are better led by the United States in its capacity as a superpower, many Israelis also fear that their allies will eventually abandon them on this issue. And their fears are reinforced when U.S. officials such as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta comment on the inadvisability of a strike. These comments may therefore have the opposite effect than intended, convincing Israel that no one will come to its aid and that it has no other choice but to attack.

Impact of the IAEA Report – If Israel does attack Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012, the turning point in its decisionmaking may have already occurred earlier this month. On November 8, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors endorsed a report citing “credible” information “that Iran has carried out…activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.” Notably, this was the board’s first meeting since the discovery that Iran’s Qods Force had plotted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador on American soil.

David Makovsky is the Ziegler distinguished fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute.

The above article was published in washingtoninstitute.org on November 22nd, 2011.

France to unilaterally halt imports of Iranian oil

November 24, 2011

France to unilaterally halt impo… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

An oil drilling rig [illustrative]

    PARIS – France will stop importing Iranian oil at a national level as part of a proposal it made to its allies to consider ending purchases from the world’s fifth largest producer, the foreign ministry said on Thursday.

Asked by Reuters whether the French government would force French oil major Total to stop its crude shipping business with Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said in a written answer, posted on the ministry’s website:

RELATED:
EU ups heat on Iran, reaches new sanctions deal
‘Obama policy has slowed Iran nuclear effort’

“The interruption of Iranian oil purchases is among the measures proposed by France to its partners. We will apply this at a national level.”

France turned to Iranian oil in the first half of the year to make up for disruption during the Libyan war. Last year, Iran supplied 2.8 percent of French oil imports, or 1.8 million tons.

In the seven months to July this year, it supplied 1.6 million tons or about 55,000 barrels per day.

European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said Wednesday that a ban on Iranian oil imports to press Tehran to abandon its nuclear activity would not be a problem for the EU. “It can be substituted by OPEC and others,” he told Reuters.

On Tuesday the head of the National Iranian Oil Company said he had no fear of losing EU markets and that Iranian exports to the European Union were relatively small, with other countries willing to buy.

Report: Russia Sent Syria Advanced S-300 Missiles

November 24, 2011

Report: Russia Sent Syria Advanced S-300 Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

A report Thursday said that Russia has supplied Syria with advanced S-300 missiles, and has sent advisers to help Syria run the system.
By David Lev

First Publish: 11/24/2011, 1:15 PM

 

missile

missile
morgufile royalty free

Russian warships that have reached waters off Syria in recent days were carrying, among other things, Russian technical advisors who will help the Syrians set up an array of S-300 missiles Damascus has received in recent weeks, a report in the London-based Arabic language Al Quds-Al Arabi said Thursday. Citing sources in Syria and Russia, the paper said that Moscow sees a Western attack on Syria as a “red line” that it will not tolerate.

Despite the mounting opposition in the West and even in the Arab world against Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad for his assaults on protesters seeking to unseat him as leader of the country, Russia maintains its support for Assad, the report said. Russian and Syria military officials are working together to maintain Assad’s rule, and to deflect a possible attack by NATO or the U.S and EU.

Along with the missiles, the report says that Russia has installed advanced radar systems in all key Syrian military and industrial installations. The radar system also covers areas north and south of Syria, where it will be able to detect movement of troops or aircraft towards the Syrian border. The radar targets include much of Israel, as well as the Incirlik military base in Turkey, which is used by NATO.

The S-300 system is regarded as one of the most potent anti-aircraft missile systems available. The system’s radar is able to simultaneously track up to 100 targets while engaging up to 12. Deployment time for the S-300 is five minutes, and they have a very long life span, with no maintenance needed.

Russia had attempted to sell the system to Iran, but that sale was cancelled due to pressure by the U.S. and Israel, with Russia returning Iran’s deposit. According to the report, the Iranians paid for Syria’s S-300 missile system. It is not known if some of the missiles have reached Iran as well.

France calls for ‘secured’ humanitarian intervention in Syria

November 24, 2011

France calls for ‘secured’ humanitarian intervention in Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Foreign Minister Alain Juppe describes Syrian exiled opposition National Council as ‘legitimate partner with which we want to work.’

By Reuters

France has called for a “secured zone to protect civilians” in Syria, the first time a major Western power has suggested international intervention on the ground in the eight-month uprising against President Bashar Assad.

Foreign Minister Alain Juppe also described Syria’s exiled opposition National Council as “the legitimate partner with which we want to work,” the biggest international endorsement yet for the nascent opposition body.

Syria Homs - Reuters - 4.11.2011 A protester facings riot police at Khalidia, near Homs, Syria, November 4, 2011.
Photo by: Reuters

A spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said the EU was ready to engage with the Syrian National Council and other opposition groups, but stressed the need for them to maintain a peaceful, non-sectarian approach.

Asked at a news conference on Wednesday after meeting the SNC president if a humanitarian corridor was an option for Syria, Juppe ruled out military intervention to create a “buffer zone” in northern Syria but suggested a “secured zone” may be feasible to protect civilians and ferry in humanitarian aid.

“If it is possible to have a humanitarian dimension for a secured zone to protect civilians, that then is a question which has to be studied by the European Union on the one side and the Arab League on the other side,” Juppe said.

Further details of the proposal were not immediately available. Until now, Western countries have imposed economic sanctions on Syria but have shown no appetite for intervention on the ground in the country, which sits on the fault lines of the ethnic and sectarian conflicts across the Middle East.

“The French have tried to position themselves in a position of leadership, first with Libya and now here,” said Hayat Alvi, a lecturer in National Security studies, at the U.S. Naval War College. “Military intervention in Syria is a very different prospect of that in Libya, but we could well see an increase in covert action.”

The Arab League has suspended Syria’s membership over the conflict, one of the most important signs of Assad’s isolation, but has shown little appetite for international intervention.

Britain said it welcomed the opportunity to discuss the French proposal and repeated its call for Syria to end human rights violations.

Ashton’s spokesman said the EU foreign policy chief had met this week with leaders of the Syrian National Council. “The EU stands ready to engage with the Syrian National Council and other representative members of the opposition who adhere to non-violence and democratic values,” he said.

Addressing the need for a humanitarian response, he said: “Protection of civilians in Syria is an increasingly urgent and important aspect of responding to the events in the country.”

Darkness of the Middle Ages

Syria’s bloodshed could pitch the Muslim world into “the darkness of the Middle Ages,” Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Wednesday.

A day earlier, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan criticized the “cowardice” of Assad, once a close ally, for turning guns on his own people. Erdogan spoke of the fate of defeated dictators from Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini to Muammar Gadhafi, and bluntly told Assad to quit.

In Brussels, an EU diplomat said European Union governments were considering a new range of sanctions against Syria that would bar investment in Syrian banks, trading its government bonds and selling insurance to state bodies.

Gul told a think-tank in London: “We exerted enormous efforts in public and behind closed doors in order to convince the Syrian leadership to lead the democratic transition.”

“Violence breeds violence. Now, unfortunately, Syria has come to a point of no return,” he said. “Defining this democratic struggle along sectarian, religious and ethnic lines would drag the whole region into turmoil and bloodshed.”

The violence in Syria shows no sign of let-up.

Syrian forces killed two villagers on Wednesday in an agricultural area that has served as a supply line for defectors, activists and residents said.

An armoured column entered the town of Hayaleen and surrounding villages on the al-Ghab Plain. Troops fired machineguns from tanks and trucks and set fire to several houses after arresting around 100 people, they said.

The region, northwest of the city of Hama, 240 km north of Damascus, has been a transit route for defectors operating in the province of Idlib near Turkey, activists said.

Two youths were also killed in the central city of Homs, 140-kms north of Damascus, which has become a centre of resistance against Assad. Activists said evening demonstrations were held in several neighborhoods of Homs.

A YouTube video showed a rally being led by a local soccer player. Protesters waved green and white Syrian flags from the era before Assad’s Baath Party took power in a 1963 coup and a woman sang a lament to those who had been killed, while the crowd chanted after her.

In the south, two villagers were killed near the city of Deraa on the border with Jordan, where more tanks and armoured vehicles deployed in the last month after a slew of defections and attacks on loyalist forces, activists said.

It was not possible to confirm the events independently. The authorities, who blame the unrest on “armed terrorist groups,” have barred most independent media from Syria.

Thousands of soldiers have deserted the regular army since it started cracking down on the eight-month protest movement. Some have formed rebel armed units loosely linked to an umbrella “Free Syrian Army” led by officers in Turkey.

Syria army reinforce near border

Syrian defectors say they are hopeful that Turkish troops will create a safe haven within Syria. Defectors say they could use such a zone as a staging ground to mount a rebellion.

Turkey is reluctant to take military action across the border but Turkish officials say they could set up a sanctuary on Syrian territory if huge numbers of refugees head for the frontier or if massacres take place in Syrian cities.

Ground forces commander Hayri Kivrikoglu inspected troops near the border on Tuesday, Turkish state television reported.

Syrian deserters and civilians in refugee camps and villages in Turkey close to the frontier say the Syrian army has reinforced its positions in border areas.

“There are tanks in the valleys, hidden among the trees, and they’ve dug trenches,” Syrian refugee Hamid Fayzo told Reuters in the Turkish village of Guvecci, overlooking the border.

The United Nations says 3,500 people have been killed in the uprising, triggered by Arab revolts which have toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

Assad, 46, seems prepared to fight it out, playing on fears of a sectarian war if Syria’s complex ethno-sectarian mosaic shatters.

But many experts say Assad, who can depend mainly on the loyalty of two elite Alawite units, cannot maintain current military operations without cracks emerging in the armed forces

Israel’s policy of nuclear ambiguity won’t be changing for long

November 24, 2011

Israel’s policy of nuclear ambiguity won’t be changing for long – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

With El Baradei gone and the Arab countries more conciliatory, Israel’s policy of nuclear opacity won’t be changing for long.

By Yossi Melman

 

“The sky didn’t fall on us,” admits the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, whose representatives returned from two days of talks at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The subject was a nuclear-weapon-free Middle East.

The meeting they had so much feared was nonbinding and academic. The goal was to learn from other nuclear-weapon-free zones. These five are Africa, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the South Pacific and Central and South America.

nuclear resesearch installation in Dimona - AFP - 24112011 A 2002 picture of the nuclear resesearch installation in Dimona.
Photo by: AFP

Israel has taken part in similar meetings in the past. One of them took place in Cairo in August 2010 at the initiative of an international organization headed by the foreign ministers of Australia and Japan. Iranian representatives took part. Another conference, initiated by the European Union, was held in June 2011 in Brussels. But the conference this week in Vienna, with the participation of Israel, Arab states and about 70 other countries, marked the first discussion under the IAEA’s sponsorship on forming a nuclear-weapon-free zone.

Iran boycotted the event, apparently not because of Israel’s participation but because it is angry at the IAEA and Director General Yukiya Amano, who didn’t hesitate to publish a tough report about two weeks ago. The document claims that Iran’s nuclear program includes worrisome military aspects.

For 11 years Israel refused to take part in every forum the IAEA wanted to convene on the issue. The Israeli delegation to the Vienna talks was headed by David Danieli, deputy director of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. He told Haaretz that Israel expressed its willingness to participate after the agenda and terms of reference were coordinated in advance. The terms of reference included a decision to discuss lessons learned – not only in nuclear-weapon-free zones but also parts of the world where this is no such zone. Europe, for example.

Soft on Iran

But the real reason for Israel’s refusal to take part in a meeting sponsored by the IAEA until now was the person who headed the organization, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, whose name is now being mentioned as a possible Egyptian president. ElBaradei is seen in Israel – and in Washington and Western European capitals as well – as soft on Iran, someone who closed his eyes to Iran’s military nuclear activities. He is also seen as hostile to Israel. Danieli does not respond directly to the question of whether the change in Israel’s attitude stems from the IAEA’s change in leadership. He prefers to put it this way, without mentioning names: “In previous years the agreement among the countries and the IAEA secretariat that has now made the event possible had not yet formed.” At the meeting, Israel’s representatives were surprised by two interesting developments. One is that the representatives of the Arab countries, headed by Egypt, presented their views in a practical and nonbelligerent tone. Only the Syrian representative, whose country was exposed as having secretly built a reactor to produce nuclear weapons (which was destroyed by the Israel Air Force ) delivered a tough and characteristic speech. He described Israel as a threat to peace and security in the region because it has nuclear weapons and refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Let there be no mistake. The Arab countries have not changed their stance. They would still like to see Israel get rid of what the entire world believes it has: nuclear weapons. But apparently a reason for the moderate and sometimes confused tone of Arab spokesmen is domestic problems. The violent unrest sweeping the Arab world is preoccupying them more than their desire to see nuclear disarmament in Israel. Israel’s nuclear policy is defined as “ambiguous.” The world believes that Israel has nuclear weapons, but Israel has never declared this and repeats the mantra formulated already in the early 1960s by then-Deputy Defense Minister Shimon Peres: Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the region. Nor did Israel sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. From that day it has rejected any international pressure – and the pressure has not been heavy – to join the treaty and let IAEA inspectors check out the nuclear facility in Dimona and other facilities suspected of engaging in nuclear activity for military purposes.

Israel’s many conditions

Israel has never claimed that there is no possibility it will change its nuclear policy one day. But for Israel that’s a vision for the distant future. First, as Danieli said during the discussion, there are several conditions: Every country in the region must recognize Israel, sign peace agreements and make security arrangements with it; only then will it be possible to discuss regional nuclear disarmament. Israel believes that there should also be a simultanenous discussion on eliminating all weapons of mass destruction: biological and chemical weapons and the missiles that launch them.

Israel also points out another issue: How the Middle East’s borders should be defined. Isn’t the status of Pakistan, considered the largest proliferator of nuclear weapons (Pakistan supplied the know-how and technology to Iran, Libya and perhaps Syria ), relevant to the creation of a nuclear-free Middle East? For the Israel Atomic Energy Commission the answer is clear.

The second development that was sweet music to Israeli ears was the stance of most non-Arab countries at the meeting. They gave the impression that they support Israel’s position in principle. The ambassador of a large Western country asked a rhetorical question: Was there ever a situation in which a discussion about promoting a nuclear-weapon-free zone was launched without the countries in the region recognizing one another?

Even the Russian representative, who also spoke in the name of Britain and the United States (the three are considered the NPT’s “trustees” ), said the region won’t be able to become nuclear free without progress in the peace process.

In his summation, Amano praised the “positive atmosphere” and summed up the conference as a “symbolically important” attempt to bring together rival nations, even if no “concrete results” were achieved.

Even after the conference, and perhaps even more emphatically because of it, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission does not intend to recommend a change in Israel’s position. Despite calls for doing so both at home and abroad, Israel will not change its policy of nuclear ambiguity. That may happen only if Iran has nuclear weapons and other countries in the region such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Algeria follow in its footsteps.

Report: U.S. carrier sent to Syrian coast as tensions flare

November 24, 2011

Syria | Aircraft Carrier | Bush | The Daily Caller.

USS George H.W. Bush

The USS George H.W. Bush, the Navy’s newest aircraft carrier, has reportedly parked off the Syrian coast. The move comes as the U.S. embassy in Damascus urged Americans to “immediately” leave the country.

“The U.S. embassy continues to urge U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available,” began a statement released Wednesday on the embassy website. “The number of airlines serving Syria has decreased significantly since the summer, while many of those airlines remaining have reduced their number of flights.”

In addition to urging citizens to leave the country, CBS News reports that Ambassador Robert Ford, who was recalled from Syria last month due to what the Obama administration called credible threats to his safety, will not return to the country later this month as planned.

Syria’s government has been strongly condemned by the international community following months of state-sponsored violence against political activists protesting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The violence is said to have left thousands dead in the country, which is a close ally of Iran and a sponsor of the Islamic terrorist group Hezbollah.

Adding to the sense of danger, Turkey, a NATO member and fierce critic of Assad’s government, recently warned its citizens to avoid traveling through the country after Syrian troops fired on at least two buses carrying Turkish Muslims returning from the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

Some Arab publications have reported this week that a no-fly zone will soon be put in place over Syria — similar to the one implemented over Libya last spring. And while such reports in the Arab press are often met with skepticism by western observers, the financial news service ZeroHedge flagged down a report from the respected private intelligence company Stratfor stating that CVN 77, better known as the George H.W. Bush, had left the strategically vital Straits of Hormuz for the Syrian coast.

The idea of imposing a no-fly zone over Syria — an increasingly hot topic in Washington, D.C. — was discussed at Tuesday’s CNN Republican debate. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has said he would “absolutely” propose a no-fly zone for the country, but when asked if they would do the same, other Republican presidential candidates remained hesitant.

“This is not the time for a no-fly zone over Syria,” said Romney.

U.S. urges Americans to leave Syria “immediately” – CBS News

November 23, 2011

U.S. urges Americans to leave Syria “immediately” – CBS News.

(CBS/AP)

BEIRUT – The U.S. Embassy in Damascus urged its citizens in Syria to depart “immediately,” and Turkey’s foreign ministry urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling through Syria.

“The U.S. Embassy continues to urge U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available,” said a statement issued to the American community in Syria Wednesday and posted on the Embassy’s website. “The number of airlines serving Syria has decreased significantly since the summer, while many of those airlines remaining have reduced their number of flights.”

The warning followed an announcement in Washington this week that Ambassador Robert Ford would not return to Syria this month as planned, indicating concerns over his safety.

The Obama administration quietly pulled Ford out of Syria last month, citing credible personal threats against him.

The Turkish foreign ministry on Wednesday urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia and avoid traveling through Syria for security reasons.

The warning came two days after Syrian soldiers opened fire on at least two buses carrying Turkish citizens, witnesses and officials said, apparent retaliation for Turkey’s criticism of Assad. The Turks were returning from Saudi Arabia after performing the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, Syrian security carried out raids in rebellious areas in the center and the south of the country Wednesday, and at least six people died, raising the death toll in the past two days to 34, activists said, as the U.S. and Turkey took unusual steps to protect their citizens.

Syrian President Bashar Assad was under increasing international pressure to stop the brutal crackdown, but no effects were apparent on the ground.

Activists and human rights groups said at least six people died in central and southern Syria on Wednesday, some during raids by Syrian security forces, and others who died of injuries sustained earlier.

Wednesday’s casualties raised to 34 the number of Syrians killed in the past 24 hours.

Two main activist groups, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Local Coordinating Committees, documented the deaths, which were reported Tuesday in the central cities of Hama and Homs, the eastern city of Deir el-Zour and elsewhere.

The violence came a day ahead of Arab League talks in Cairo to assess the Syria crisis after the 22-member organization rejected proposed Syrian amendments to its plan to send Arab observers to Syria to protect civilians.

The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership over the bloodshed and Syria’s failure to abide by an Arab peace plan it signed.

A key U.N. committee voted Tuesday to condemn human rights violations by Assad’s government and called for an immediate end to all violence. Nearly 4,000 people have been reported killed in the military crackdown on the popular uprising since March.

The nonbinding resolution adopted by the General Assembly’s human rights committee calls on Syrian authorities to implement the Arab League peace plan, agreed to earlier this month, “without further delay.”

The resolution, sponsored by Britain, France and Germany, was passed by a vote of 122-13 with 41 abstentions. It must now be approved at a plenary session of the 193-member world body, where its adoption is virtually certain.

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said in a statement that the committee’s first-ever resolution on Syria’s human rights violations “has sent a clear message that it does not accept abuse and death as a legitimate path to retaining power.”

Syria’s U.N. Ambassador Bashar Jaafari again accused Britain, France and Germany of “waging a media, political and diplomatic war against Syria” and encouraging armed groups to engage in violence rather than national dialogue with the government.

Israeli security forces: Turkey nearing military intervention in Syria

November 23, 2011

Israeli security forces: Turkey nearing military intervention in Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Defense officials in Israel say Turkey is likely to set up secure buffer zones in Syria, near the border, to allow armed Syrian opposition groups to battle against the regime.

By Anshel Pfeffer

Israeli security forces officials said Wednesday that they believe Turkey is nearing a military intervention in Syria, in order to create a secure buffer zone for opposition activists.

Thus far, Ankara has given shelter to some 20,000 refugees who escaped the deadly crackdown by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s security forces, and also housed Syrian opposition groups.

Syria Homs - Reuters - 4.11.2011 A protester facings riot police at Khalidia, near Homs, Syria, November 4, 2011.
Photo by: Reuters

In recent days, however, Israeli officials said that according to an updated assessment of the situation, Turkey is expected to set up secure buffer zones on its border with Syria that would allow armed opposition groups to organize against the Syrian regime from bases that would be protected by the Turkish army.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently hardened his stance against Assad and suggested for the first time the possibility of foreign intervention in Syria.

Wide protests against Assad’s regime have been ongoing across Syria, but in recent weeks the focal point of the armed resistance by army defectors was in the three northern cities close to Turkey’s border – Idlib, Homs, and Hama.

According to various reports, there is an area in Idlib where the Syrian army lost control and has the potential to become an independent, rebel-controlled area, such as the Libyan city of Benghazi, which was seized by the rebels early in the revolution and became the temporary base for the opposition movement.

 

Report: US & Arab States Set To Impose No Fly Zone Over Syria

November 23, 2011

» Report: US & Arab States Set To Impose No Fly Zone Over Syria Alex Jones’ Infowars: There’s a war on for your mind!.

Plan to cripple Assad’s military forces within 24 hours

Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
Wedneday, November 23, 2011

Reports out of Kuwait suggest that Arab states are set to impose a no fly zone over Syria with US logistical support, advancing the prospect of a military assault to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad under a “humanitarian” pretext.

Egypt

“Senior European sources said that Arab jet fighters, and possibly Turkish warplanes, backed by American logistic support will implement a no fly zone in Syria’s skies, after the Arab League will issue a decision, under its Charter, calling for the protection of Syrian civilians,” reports Albawaba, citing Kuwait’s al Rai daily.

YNet news, the website for Israel’s most widely read newspaper, also carried the report.

As part of a plan to cripple the country’s military forces within 24 hours, the “movement of Syrian military vehicles, including tanks, personnel carriers and artillery,” would all be banned under the terms of the no fly zone.

Syrian opposition forces have repeatedly called for a no fly zone to be enforced over the country, but last month NATO all but ruled out the prospect. Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry has also called on the Obama administration to impose a no fly zone without waiting for a green light from the United Nations.

“If indeed Europe and the Western world is dead set upon an aerial campaign above Syria, then all eyes turn to the East, and specifically Russia and China, which have made it very clear they will not tolerate any intervention. And naturally the biggest unknown of all is Iran, which has said than any invasion of Syria will be dealt with swiftly and severely,” reports Zero Hedge.

Hostilities have accelerated in recent days, with Russian warships entering Syrian territorial waters on Friday in an aggressive maneuver designed to discourage any NATO-led attack.

Without Russia’s help, Syria would be largely defenseless against a NATO attack. “I don’t see any purely military problems. Syria has no defence against Western systems … [But] it would be more risky than Libya. It would be a heavy military operation,” former French air force chief Jean Rannou commented.

While NATO powers have accused the Syrian regime of carrying out atrocities against its citizens, others have framed the bloodshed in the context of a civil war. As we saw with Libya, rebel fighters who were commandeering fighter jets and firing rocket-propelled grenades were still being described as “protesters” by the establishment media days before the no fly zone was imposed and the bombing campaign began.

As we saw prior to the attack on Libya, which was also framed as a “humanitarian intervention,” NATO powers are keen to demonize Assad’s government by characterizing attacks by his forces as atrocities while largely ignoring similar attacks by opposition forces, such as a raid on a Syrian air force intelligence complex earlier this month that killed or wounded 20 security police.

*********************

Paul Joseph Watson is the editor and writer for Prison Planet.com. He is the author of Order Out Of Chaos. Watson is also a regular fill-in host for The Alex Jones Show.

Israeli Military Intelligence Caused Massive Explosion In Hezbollah South Lebanon Arms Cache

November 23, 2011

Israeli Military Intelligence Caused Massive Explosion In Hezbollah South Lebanon Arms Cache – OpEd.

Written by:

November 23, 2011

The history of military intelligence is full of nation’s whose personnel made rash, foolish and careless decisions ending in disaster.  Israel has done this.  Yesterday, news broke that the CIA allowed two Hezbollah double agents penetrate and roll up its Lebanese spy network, in part because U.S. agents met repeatedly at the same Pizza Hut, using the code word “Pizza” to arrange their rendez vous.

Now comes an exclusive report from an authoritative Israeli source with considerable military experience, that IDF military intelligence (Aman) has out foxed Hezbollah by deliberately crash-landing a booby-trapped Trojan Horse drone in southern Lebanon.

Here is how the incident was reported by an unsuspecting Wall Street Journal reporter:

On a recent Saturday afternoon, a radar operated by French United Nations peacekeepers picked up a pilotless Israeli reconnaissance drone crossing into south Lebanon. It was given no more attention than any of the dozens of other surveillance missions flown by the Israelis in Lebanese airspace each month.

But when the drone passed above Wadi Hojeir, a yawning valley with steep, brush-covered slopes, it abruptly vanished from the radar screen. The startled peacekeepers contacted the Lebanese army, and a search of the rugged valley was conducted in the early-evening gloom. Nothing was found.

No one can recall the last time that an Israeli drone malfunctioned over Lebanon and crashed, and there were no reports of antiaircraft fire. The Israelis have said nothing. Neither has Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and arch foe of Israel. The peacekeeping force is now abuzz.

And now I can tell them what happened.  For over a year, Hezbollah has been attempting to discover how to jam the ground signals commanding the drone so as to disable them in flight.  When it discovered the downed craft, its operatives must’ve crowed that they’d finally discovered the key to success.  This bit of hubris is how Aman drew Hezbollah into its net.  Its soldiers dutifully collected the imagined intelligence trophy and brought it to a large weapons depot it controlled in the area.  Once inside the arms cache, Aman detonated the drone causing a massive explosion.  Here is how the Daily Star described that event:

A huge explosion shook a Hezbollah stronghold near Siddiqin in the southern coastal city of Tyre overnight, a security source told The Daily Star Wednesday.  The source said the cause of the blast, which was heard shortly before midnight, could not be determined due to the heavy security blanket by Hezbollah.

Lebanese security forces were unable to access the scene of the explosion after the resistance group set up a security perimeter around the blast site, which is located in a valley called Wadi Al-Jabal al-Kabir between Siddiqin and Deir Ames, the source added.  Local media said the explosion likely took place at a Hezbollah arms cache.

Given that Hezbollah is reputed to have many more missiles and more advanced models than it had before the 2006 Lebanon War, we can only imagine how serious this blow will be to the group’s war fighting capability.  Hezbollah is known to possess some of the most advanced Iranian rockets (the Zelzal) in anticipation of possible use should Israel attack Iran.  Given the size of the explosion, we should expect that a good deal of its weapons cache in the south has been destroyed.

Hezbollah is known for being highly professional and quite crafty in its intelligence capabilities having penetrated the IDF intelligence network in the 2006 war.  That’s why I find it almost inexplicable that its fighters wouldn’t have at least considered the craft might be a Trojan Horse.  It’s possible that Hezbollah did consider the idea and searched for an explosive charge & didn’t find one.  In that case, the IDF must’ve very cleverly concealed it.

At any rate, as soldiers, even brilliant ones, often do, Hezbollah made a fatal error which the IDF exploited.  And before Israel’s supporters jump for joy at another Israeli victory in the unending war on terror, remember that in 1999, a Hezbollah cell phone was brought to the vaunted IDF Unit 8200 headquarters for examination.  The soldiers preparing to view it joked “If it explodes, we’ll know.”  It did indeed explode seriously wounding the two senior Israeli intelligence officers.  Not to mention the major amount of egg it splattered on the face of Israel’s renowned intelligence agency.

The moral being, in this dirty game called asymmetrical warfare, you and your enemy circle each other warily seeking to exploit any weakness.  And you will make mistakes because you are only human.  The fatal assumption is that your opponent is the only dumb one who will make them, and you never will.

An additional embarrassment for Hezbollah is that the destroyed arms cache is located south of the Litani River in a zone which is forbidden to contain any armaments.  This means that the group has committed a major violation of the UN ceasefire resolution 1701.

This article appeared in Tikun Olam

About the author:

Richard Silverstein is an author, journalist and blogger, with articles appearing in Haaretz, the Jewish Forward, Los Angeles Times, the Guardian’s Comment Is Free, Al Jazeera English, and Alternet. His work has also been in the Seattle Times, American Conservative Magazine, Beliefnet and Tikkun Magazine, where he is on the advisory board. Check out Silverstein’s blog at Tikun Olam, one of the earliest liberal Jewish blogs, which he has maintained since February, 2003.