Archive for November 30, 2011

Britain to support oil embargo on Iran, say diplomatic sources

November 30, 2011

Britain to support oil embargo on Iran, say diplomatic sources – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

After Britain shut down Iran embassy in London, U.K. official says his country will support increased sanctions on Iran such as the French proposal for embargo.

By Reuters Tags: Iran Iran nuclear

Britain will support an embargo on Iranian oil imports following the deterioration of relations between the two countries, diplomatic sources told Reuters on Wednesday, as France tried to rally support for new sanctions within the EU.

Britain shut down the Iranian embassy in London and expelled its entire staff on Wednesday, saying the storming of the British diplomatic mission in Tehran could not have taken place without some degree of consent from Iranian authorities.

“Now that the U.K. has downgraded diplomatic relations with Iran, it will support increased sanctions … and would likely go ahead with those sanctions unilaterally or with France and Germany,” said a diplomatic source, referring to the ban on Iranian crude oil imports.

A British government source said Britain was “broadly supportive” of further energy sanctions on Iran when asked about the proposal for an Iran embargo.

Britain imposed sanctions on Iran’s central bank last week after a report by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency suggested Iran may have worked on developing a nuclear arsenal.

U.S. sanctions already forbid imports from the OPEC member and the European Union is considering new sanctions against Iran – which may include oil – to press Tehran to abandon its nuclear activity.

But diplomats said earlier this week that the French proposal for an embargo is being met with resistance from some EU capitals, which could shrink the pool of backers.
Britain has not recently imported Iranian oil but France and Germany have, according to the International Energy Agency.

About 450,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil is exported to European Union, where Italy is the biggest buyer with 183,000 bpd or 13 percent of its needs, Spain with 137,000 bpd (13 percent) and France with 49,000 bpd (4 percent), according to the latest U.S. data.

Industry sources told Reuters EU countries could negotiate with the world’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia with the aim of replacing some of Iran’s main export grade Iranian Heavy with a similar grade Arab Light.

“Saudi Arabia would have to make up the deficit in supply because I really can’t see Greece being happy if the oil market goes to e130 to e150 per barrel,” said a senior trade source.

He said any decision on a ban could come with a three-month notice to allow refiners to switch to alternative suppliers.

China is seen as the most likely buyer of extra Iranian volumes in the event of a European ban, with discounting possible due to reduced competition for supplies.

‘UK embassy attack bolsters EU push for Iran sanctions’

November 30, 2011

‘UK embassy attack bolsters EU push for … JPost – International.

Protesters burn UK flag removed from Iran embassy

    BRUSSELS – The storming of the British embassy compound in Tehran could provide extra ammunition to European governments pushing for stronger sanctions against Iran, in particular a contentious embargo on Iranian oil, diplomats said on Wednesday.

EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Thursday to map out Europe’s response to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency in recent weeks that suggested Iran has worked on designing an atom bomb.
Much has already been agreed – the EU will add some 180 names to a list of people and entities targeted by pan-European sanctions – but a number of EU capitals have yet to decide exactly how much economic pressure the EU should apply on Iran over its nuclear program, which it says is peaceful.

Tuesday’s attack on the British embassy by dozens of students and protesters angry over Britain’s unilateral sanctions could go some way towards convincing them stronger action is needed, diplomats said.

“From a political point of view this (attack) cannot, I think, work in the direction of EU member states wanting to ease pressure on Iran,” the diplomat said. “On the contrary.”

“The whole question is do we go further and add a new set of sanctions apart from those adopted in the past.”

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said that following the embassy attack, Paris would push foreign ministers in Brussels to look at sanctions beyond what had already been agreed, especially proposals made by President Nicolas Sarkozy to freeze the central bank’s assets and to ban oil imports.

French sources say that Paris feels the attack has added to the already long list of factors playing against Tehran and those that have wavered will be more inclined to listen to the French proposals.

In the past week, some EU capitals have insisted it is too early to adopt them, concerned about the economic consequences of tighter restrictions on a big OPEC oil producer.

Experts says a European embargo could boost global crude prices at a time when Europe is teetering on the brink of recession and struggling with a mounting debt crisis.

Greece, in particular, has expressed reluctance, EU diplomats say. Traders say debt-strapped Athens has been relying on Iranian oil, which comes with an attractive financing offer at a time when banks are increasingly denying it credit.

Stern warning expected to be issued

In addition to discussing sanctions, EU governments are expected to issue a stern warning to Tehran over the attack on Britain’s interests, expressing their “outrage”, EU diplomats said, using a word seldom used in diplomat communiques.

Germany announced on Wednesday it would recall its ambassador from Tehran for consultations, and Britain has shut the Iranian embassy in London, although it has held back from taking any more dramatic steps at this stage.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe also said in an interview in a weekly news magazine that international measures against Tehran should be strong enough to paralyze the country.

Tehran has denied its nuclear work is aimed at building bombs and says it needs it to generate extra power to feed a growing demand for energy and for medical research purposes.

But the IAEA report appeared to offer evidence backing up Western concerns, prompting a wave of unilateral sanctions from the United States, Canada and Britain, announced this month.

The United States has taken steps designed to dissuade non-US banks from dealing with Iran. Washington blacklisted 11 entities suspected of aiding Iran’s nuclear programs, and expanded sanctions to target companies that aid its oil industry.

Britain banned all its financial institutions from doing business with Iran, including the Iranian central bank, and Canada said it would ban the export of all goods used in Iran’s petrochemical, oil and gas industries and “block virtually all transactions with Iran”, also including with the central bank.

Rocket fire in northern Israel is isolated incident, defense establishment says

November 30, 2011

Israel Hayom.

Defense officials decide not to raise alert level or deploy additional troops along border with Lebanon • Washington condemns rocket fire, says, “It undermines Lebanon’s stability” • “Orange Flame 6” exercise simulating non-conventional biological terror attack to be conducted in northern region.

Lilach Shoval, Daniel Siryoti and Eli Leon
A sapper checks the remains of one of the rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel, Tuesday.

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Photo credit: Ancho Gosh / JINI

A firefighter extinguishes the gas container that was hit by one of the rockets, early Tuesday morning.

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Photo credit: Michel Dot Com

A sapper checks the remains of one of the rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel, Tuesday.

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Photo credit: Ancho Gosh / JINI

The rocket attacks on northern Israel on Monday night are an isolated incident and not the beginning of an escalation on the country’s northern border, defense officials believe. Residents of the western Galilee were awakened by the sound of explosions Monday night when at least three rockets fired from Lebanon struck the region. There were no reported injuries, while one rocket caused minor property damage. The Israel Defense Forces said it had shelled the launch sites in retaliation.

Following the incident, defense officials and the Northern Command on Tuesday conducted assessments on the security situation in the north. Based on conclusions that the rocket attacks were an isolated incident, the alert level in the northern sector was not raised. There has also been no change in the deployment or number of forces stationed along the northern border, but the IDF continues to be vigilant in the area.

The IDF said on Tuesday that it had no intelligence information about who was responsible for the rockets, even though the global, al-Qaida-affiliated Sunni terrorist organization Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility. Hezbollah has denied involvement in the attacks.

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The Lebanese Army confirmed in a statement on Tuesday that a rocket had been launched “into Israel from southern Lebanon.” The statement also said that two rocket launchers were found ready to be used in a house in the village of Aita al Shaab, near the Israeli border. The launchers have since been disabled.

According to reports coming out of Lebanon, a few houses in Aita al Shaab were damaged by IDF artillery fire on southern Lebanon in retaliation for the rocket attacks.

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman condemned the rocket fire on Israel and said, “The attack disrupted southern Lebanon’s stability.”

Washington also condemned the attacks and urged both sides to exercise restraint. Deputy State Department spokesman Mark Toner said, “We condemn the firing of rockets from Lebanon toward Israel. This was a provocative act. It undermines the stability of Lebanon.”

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon echoed Toner’s comments and the U.N.’s Interim Force in Lebanon spokesman said, “The act is a serious violation of resolution 1701, and it was carried out with the clear intention of destabilizing the region.”

On, Tuesday, Northern District Police searching a forest near a residential community in the Western Galilee found the remains of a fourth rocket fired from Lebanon. The fragments were taken in for a laboratory inspection.

Towns in the western Galilee that were targets of the attacks responded to the rocket fire with indifference, focusing more on the damage that resulted. A chicken coop and a gas container were damaged.

“[The rocket attacks] were a reminder of less pleasant days, but we’re not afraid,” one of the chicken coop owners told Israel Hayom. “Some of the neighbors didn’t even wake up from the explosions and heard about the rocket attacks only in the morning.”

Despite the indifference conveyed by some northern residents, others complained about the siren systems not working before the rockets fell. “Communities near the Lebanese border have no sirens at all,” an official from the northern forum of communities in the line of fire told Israel Hayom. “In times of routine calm, the calibration of the siren systems is less sensitive and therefore the sirens did not work.”

Meanwhile, under the auspices of the Defense and Health Ministries, an “Orange Flame 6” exercise simulating a non-conventional terror attack will be conducted on Wednesday and Thursday in the northern cities of Afula, Tiberias, Nazareth and Nazareth Illit.

This is the sixth time such an exercise is set to be carried out, with this year’s drills having focused on “nonconventional biological incidents.”

During the exercise, the country’s Biological Institute will be asked, among other things, to determine what type of biological material was used against Israel in the simulation. In addition to the Defense and Health Ministries, bodies expected to participate in the drill include local hospitals, health funds, local councils, the police, Magen David Adom, firefighting services, the Environmental Protection Ministry, the Foreign Ministry and the Water Authority.

As part of the drill, treatment centers will be set up in the local authorities to provide imitation preventative treatment to citizens suspected of having been exposed to biological material released in a nonconventional terror attack. Each treatment center will practice treating 5,000 civilians daily for exposure to biological hazards. Hospitals will practice treating those who already have symptoms of the diseases.

Smallpox, plague and anthrax are considered to be the most hazardous diseases in any potential non-conventional terror attack on Israel, but the country is able to immunize large parts of the population and even quarantine vast areas with the aim of preventing the diseases from spreading. To date, as far as it known, no terrorist organizations possess such biological substances.

In coming months, another drill, simulating a nuclear bomb attack, is also expected to be conducted. The exercise will simulate a “dirty bomb” attack on Haifa.

‘The Missiles May Have been a Warning of Things to Come’

November 30, 2011

front lines: Israel: ‘The Missiles May Have been a Warning of Things to Come’.

The head of the Shlomi Local Council warns: The Katyusha missiles might be a warning of a new conflict. We need to be prepared.
Katyusha Missile

Katyusha Missile
Flash 90

Gabi Naaman, head of the Shlomi Local Council, warned on Tuesday that the Katyusha missile attack on northern Israel may be a warning sign that a new conflict is coming along the northern border.

No one was physically hurt as four Katyusha missiles fired from Lebanon at northern Israel exploded in the northern Galilee. Damage was caused to a chicken coop in one local community. The IDF retaliated and fired back at the location from which the missiles were launched.

Shlomi is a town located very close to the border with Lebanon and has been hit in the past by missiles. The four missiles fired overnight Monday landed very close to the town, and Naaman told Arutz Sheva that he hopes that there will be no need to activate the air raid sirens in the near future.

“Unfortunately, once in a while we get a reminder that we have enemies in the north,” he said. “For us this was a warning and all the heads of the local councils should be ready for further attacks, though we obviously hope such attacks won’t happen.”

Naaman called on residents of Israel’s north to be prepared and vigilant.

“I’m telling everybody: do not be complacent,” he said. “You must be ready to enter the bomb shelters and protected spaces. We must be prepared. This is a turbulent region. We need to continue with our routines and yet still be prepared.”

Naaman noted that currently the sirens are not going off in real time but said he fully trusts the security forces to change that procedure if it becomes necessary.

“For now the IDF has made a decision not to activate the sirens that detect missile attacks,” he explained. “This has proven itself during periods of calm because there is no reason to have the entire Galilee panic over a single missile, and sometimes there are false alarms.”

In a separate interview earlier on Tuesday, former Kiryat Shmona mayor Prosper Azran told Arutz Sheva that the latest Katushya attack is just the beginning.

“The terrorist hand has always been quick on the trigger because our deterrent power is forgotten and amounts to nothing,” Azran said. “We residents of Kiryat Shmona have faced this for decades. I’m afraid I have to report Israel’s government regularly neglects the security of some citizens.”

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the attack on Tuesday, urging maximum restraint by all parties and calling them to respect UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigades in Lebanon has claimed responsibility for the attack.

‘Germany approves subsidized sale of military submarine to Israel’

November 30, 2011

‘Germany approves subsidized sale of military submarine to Israel’ – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

German official, speaking on condition of anonymity, says his country set aside $180 million to fund about a third of another Dolphin-type submarine.

By The Associated Press

A senior German official said Wednesday that the government has approved the subsidized sale of another Dolphin-type military submarine to Israel.

The official said Germany has set aside €135 million ($180 million) in next year’s budget to pay for about a third of its cost.

A Dolphin submarine. A Dolphin submarine. A better option for strategic deterrence.
Photo by: Reuters

Dolphin-class submarines are capable of carrying nuclear-tipped missiles, but there is no evidence that Israel has armed them with such weapons.

Israel already has three Dolphin submarines from Germany — one half-funded and two entirely funded by Berlin, a staunch Israeli ally.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Wednesday a 2005 agreement between the two nations included an option for another subsidized submarine which was now activated at Israel’s request.

 

Loose Syrian Weapons Could Pose a Serious Threat

November 30, 2011

Israpundit » Blog Archive » Loose Syrian Weapons Could Pose a Serious Threat.

AIPAC sounds the alarm. Remember all the weapons that came into the hands of terrorists in Libya. Don’t let the same thing happen in Syria. Ted Belman

AIPAC, NEAR EAST REPORT

In a sign that Syria may be on the brink of civil war, defectors from the military were reportedly responsible for recent attacks on an intelligence base near Damascus and a ruling Baath party office in the northwest of the country. There is a growing boldness among deserters in confronting President Bashar Assad’s regime, which the U.N. estimates has killed more than 3,500 people in a brutal crackdown.

The United States, European Union and Turkey all agree that Assad has lost the legitimacy to lead. But what will happen to Syrian weapons stockpiles if and when Assad’s rule collapses?

The experience of Libya’s rebellion revealed that hidden weapons caches can be vast and quickly transferred to regional buyers. Earlier this month, the U.N.’s top envoy in Libya confirmed that thousands of highly sophisticated missiles and others weapons have disappeared or been looted from unguarded compounds in Tripoli. Some of these weapons have already ended up in the hands of terrorist organizations in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.

Syria possesses the region’s largest known supply of chemical weapons, including missile warheads, aerial bombs, artillery shells and containers of pre-weaponized poison agent. Such items would command huge profits from terrorist organizations that have sought to acquire them for years.

In addition to the chemical and biological weapons themselves, Syria’s arsenal includes sophisticated delivery systems. Damascus is believed to have as many as 1,000 Scud ballistic missiles, with a range of up to 435 miles, as well as tens of thousands of locally made rockets covering all of northern and central Israel. It has also reportedly transferred Scud and even more advanced M-600 surface-to-surface missiles to Hizballah in Lebanon, providing the terrorist organization’s missile arsenal with a range and accuracy it did not previously have.

In the chaos of a Syrian civil war or regime collapse, the most difficult weapons to protect would be “small arms,” weapons for one or two people, as they are the easiest to move. Syria has more than 4,000 man-portable air defense systems known as MANPADS, which have proven deadly even to advanced American aircraft and can also be used to target civilian airplanes. Yiftah Shapir, an Israeli strategic analyst, says MANPADS may now be in Gaza for the first time, smuggled into the territory from Libya through tunnels under the border between Egypt and Gaza.

“[MANPADS] can shoot down a plane, from about five kilometers [3.1 miles] give or take, and altitude of usually up to 10,000 feet, 12,000 feet,” he said.

Syria also has the Kornet—a heavy anti-tank missile—in its arsenal. This missile has been used to deadly effect against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israeli civilian targets. A loss of centralized Syrian control could lead to the region being flooded with Kornet missiles.

U.S. officials have recently expressed the belief that Assad’s days are numbered amid growing international censure and internal pressure. The regime faces a rapidly deteriorating economic situation under tough sanctions, desertions within the security forces and deepening isolation even among the Arab states and its traditional allies. Assad is seen to be in an inescapable decline of power, but of unknown duration.

Assad has proven willing to transfer advanced missiles and weapons technology to Hizballah in the past, and individual Syrian commanders on either side of a civil war could see the benefit of quick cash sales. In a total collapse of civil authority, chemical, biological and other advanced weapons systems could easily find their way to neighboring countries and into the hands of terrorist groups, threatening regional stability and adding to the complex security challenges that Israel faces.

As in the case of Libya, outside powers are unlikely to be able to fully prevent the realization of these potential threats should they materialize. The U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) could tighten the implementation on the Syrian border and along the Lebanese coast of its mandate to “assist the Government of Lebanon in securing its borders and other entry points to prevent the entry in Lebanon without its consent of arms or related materiel.” Yet this would be a partial answer at best, and given UNIFIL’s poor security performance to date, it’s unlikely that Israel would find it possible to rely on the U.N. force for its security.

Iran nuke threat close to crisis point

November 30, 2011

Iran nuke threat close to crisis point | The Australian.

WHILE Europe remains preoccupied with its own slow-motion crisis and other global powers continue to be mesmerised by the bizarre spectacle of European officials’ efforts to rescue the euro (and thus the global financial system), clouds of war are massing over Iran once more.

For years, Iran has been pursuing both a nuclear program and the development of long-range missiles, which points to only one conclusion: the country’s leaders are intent on building nuclear weapons, or at least on reaching the technological threshold beyond which only a single political decision is required to achieve that end.

The latter course would arguably keep Iran within the scope of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which it is a signatory. But there can be no reasonable doubt about the Iranian leadership’s intentions. Otherwise, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs would be a pointless waste of money. After all, Iran does not need uranium-enrichment technology. The country has only one civilian nuclear reactor, with fuel rods supplied by Russia, and the Iranian technology now being developed cannot be used in it.

But uranium enrichment makes a lot of sense if you want a nuclear weapon. Moreover, Iran is building a heavy-water reactor, supposedly for research purposes, but which is also needed to build a plutonium bomb.

Iran has, in violation of the NPT, hidden substantial parts of this program. The country has also spent millions of dollars on illegal purchases of enrichment technology and nuclear-weapon designs from the Pakistani nuclear scientist and black marketeer A.Q. Khan, the “father of the Pakistani bomb”.

An Iran armed with nuclear weapons (or one political decision away from possessing them) would drastically alter the Middle East’s strategic balance. At best, a nuclear-arms race would threaten to consume this already-unstable region, which would endanger the NPT, with far-reaching global consequences.

At worst, nuclear weapons would serve Iran’s “revolutionary” foreign policy in the region, which the country’s leaders have pursued since the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The combination of an anti-status quo foreign policy and nuclear weapons and missiles is a nightmare not only for Israel, which at least has second-strike capabilities, but also for Iran’s non-nuclear Arab neighbours and Turkey.

Europe’s security profile, too, would change dramatically if Iran were to possess nuclear warheads and long-range missiles.

All attempts at negotiations have led nowhere. Sanctions, while useful, work only in the very long term. So it is only a matter of time, and not much time, until Iran’s neighbours and the international community will confront a fateful choice: either accept Iran as a nuclear power or decide that the mere prospect, as it becomes more realistic, is leading to war.

President Barack Obama has already made clear that the US will not accept Iran as a nuclear power under any circumstances. The same is true of Israel and Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbours.

The next year promises to be critical. The Israeli government recently suggested that Iran would reach the nuclear threshold within nine months, and Iran could become a major issue in the long run-up to the US presidential election next November. And it is difficult to imagine that Israel’s current government will stand by idly while Iran becomes a nuclear power (or a nuclear quasi-power).

On the other hand, talk of military intervention which, under the circumstances, would largely boil down to air strikes, is cheap. There are grave doubts about whether the Iranian nuclear program could be eliminated from the air. In fact, with large parts of the world most likely condemning any attack, military intervention could clear the diplomatic path to an Iranian bomb.

Iranian opposition forces would likely be the first victim of Western military action, and, elsewhere in the region the Arab Spring would likely be submerged under a massive anti-Western wave of solidarity with Iran. The region would be pushed back into violence and terror, instead of continuing its transformation from the bottom up. The effects on the global economy would be no less significant, to say nothing of the humanitarian consequences.

A last-ditch diplomatic solution appears unlikely, given that the nuclear question plays a decisive role in the Iranian regime’s factional struggles, in which anyone favouring compromise can be considered the loser. Moreover, Iran’s leaders seem to assume that the country is too big and too strong to be subdued by sanctions or air strikes.

Historically, the road to disaster has usually been paved with good intentions and grave errors of judgment. That could happen again in 2012, when miscalculations on all sides could clear the path to war or a nuclear Iran or, quite realistically, to both. Further escalation in the Middle East will culminate in these wretched alternatives sooner rather than later, unless a diplomatic solution is found (or unless diplomacy can at least buy time).

Unfortunately, that may be unlikely in the year ahead. In the absence of any viable route to US diplomatic engagement with Iran, the burden of organising, convening, and conducting such highly sensitive negotiations falls on Europe. And European leaders, as Iran knows very well, have other things on their minds.

Joschka Fischer, Germany’s foreign minister and vice-chancellor from 1998 to 2005, was a leader in the German Green Party for almost 20 years

UK: All Iranian diplomats must leave Britain within 48 hrs

November 30, 2011

UK: All Iranian diplomats must leave Bri… JPost – International.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague

    UK Foreign Secretary William Hague told the British parliament Wednesday that he has ordered the Iranian Embassy in London to close. He added that Iranian diplomats will be given 48 hours to leave the country.

Earlier Wednesday the UK said it had withdrawn some diplomatic staff from Tehran after protesters stormed and ransacked its embassy in the Iranian capital.

The events came in response to Iran’s decision to expel the UK ambassador in response to economic sanctions imposed by Britain on Tehran.

Hague also told British parliamentarians that all UK-based British diplomatic staff had been evacuated from Iran prior to his announcement Wednesday.

Earlier Wednesday, UK Prime Minister David Cameron said Britain was considering taking “very tough action” after protesters stormed the country’s embassy in Iran.

Cameron said his main concern was ensuring the safety of British embassy staff.

“After that we will consider taking some very tough action in response to this completely appalling and disgraceful behavior by the Iranians,” Cameron told parliament.


“The prime minister and foreign secretary have made clear that ensuring the safety of our staff and their families is our immediate priority,” the UK Foreign Office said in a statement.

“In light of yesterday’s events, and to ensure their ongoing safety, some staff are leaving Tehran,” it added.

Earlier, Western diplomatic sources in Tehran told Reuters that Britain had evacuated all its diplomatic staff from Iran.

The UN Security Council released a statement Tuesday condemning the protesters’ actions “in the strongest terms.” UNSC President Jose Filipe Moraes Cabral expressed the council members’ “deep concern over the attacks” and called on the “Iranian authorities to protect diplomatic and consular property and personnel.”

The speaker of Iran’s parliament Wednesday criticized the Security Council statement  and said it put global security at risk. “The hasty move in the Security Council in condemning the students’ actions was done to cover up previous crimes of America and Britain while the police did all they could to keep the peace,” Ali Larijani told parliament in an address broadcast live on state radio.

“This devious action will lead to instability in global security,” he said.

British Prime Minister David Cameron chaired a meeting of the government crisis committee Tuesday to discuss the attacks which he said were “outrageous and indefensible.”

“The failure of the Iranian government to defend British staff and property was a disgrace,” he said in a statement.

“The Iranian government must recognize that there will be serious consequences for failing to protect our staff. We will consider what these measures should be in the coming days.”

The United States, alongside the European Union and many of its member states also strongly condemned the attacks.

China also criticized the storming of the compounds in Tehran Wednesday, opening a rare public crack in outwardly amicable relations with Iran.

“China has always maintained that the safety and dignity of diplomatic personnel and properties must be ensured and protected,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily news briefing in Beijing, in answer to a question about the incident.

“The attacks in question were contrary to international law and rules, and they should be appropriately dealt with,” he said.

Who’s Blowing Up Iran?

November 30, 2011

Who’s Blowing Up Iran? » Publications » Family Security Matters.

 

The blast at a suspected uranium enrichment site at Isfahan, as reported on an unofficial Iranian news site on November 28.
Another week, another explosion at or near an Iranian military installation (or is it a nuclear research facility?).  As usual, the regime doesn’t know what to say.  The mullahcracy is so intensely divided that different “spokesmen” from different ministries/news outlets/cults/mafias put out different versions.  There was an explosion, or at least “the sound of an explosion.”  This goes out on the wires.  Then, no, there was no explosion, it was just the sound of our fierce military training.  Then again, yes, there was something, but not to worry, just go home and shut up.  And so it goes in the Islamic Republic of Iran, as our president so loves to call his intended international partners.
I’ve been reporting for many months about the ongoing sabotage of pipelines, refineries, military sites, Revolutionary Guards’ aircraft and trains, and groups of regime thugs. and have received the usual cold shoulder from publications “of record,” which is to say silent sneers.  But the tempo of attacks, most notably the monster blast a week ago that vaporized General Moghaddam and his foreign visitors (at least some of whom had taken the shuttle from Pyongyang to be with him on what they wrongly expected would be a happy day) led the Washington Post’s man in Tehran, Thomas Erdbrink, to note the phenomenon in a useful story entitled“Mysterious Explosions Pose Dilemma for Iranian leaders.”  He gives us a pretty good rundown of the explosions, and, living as he does in Tehran, gives ample space to regime “explanations” such as bad welding, western sanctions, and so forth.  Given the number of foreign journalists who have come to a bad end in Iran, you’d do the same.
Satellite image of damage at a missile site near Bid Kaneh, where an explosion happened on November 12.
Safe in London, on the other hand, Roger Cohen of the New York Times has no doubt about what’s happening:  his guy Obama is waging a secret war against the mullahs. “It would take tremendous naïveté,” he lectures the great unwashed,  “to believe these events are not the result of a covert American-Israeli drive to sabotage Iran’s efforts to develop a military nuclear capacity. An intense, well-funded cyberwar against Tehran is ongoing.”
So color me tremendously naive.  I would really love to believe Roger Cohen;  the very idea that Obama, at long last,  has ordered a response to the Iranian war against the west (totally unmentioned, needless to say), is delightful.  But I don’t believe it, and Cohen doesn’t give us any evidence for it, aside from intoning, as the mullahs themselves are so wont to do, that it’s the infidels and the Zionists.
Yes, there’s a cyberwar, but Revolutionary Guards generals don’t get vaporized by Stuxnet.  And Cohen’s judgment is so swayed by his fandom for Obama that it verges on the worst of the early Chris Matthews.  Try this, for example:
Foreign policy has been Obama’s strongest suit. He deserves great credit for killing Osama bin Laden, acting for the liberation of Libya, getting behind the Arab quest for freedom, winding down the war in Iraq, dealing repeated blows to Al Qaeda and restoring America’s battered image.
I suppose some copy editor took out “ordering the” before “killing” and the “of” right after it, but sure, full marks for seeing it through.  As for the Libyan, Egyptian, Tunisian and Iraqi decisions, the jury’s out, and seems to be leaning against Cohen’s client nowadays.  The blows to Al Qaeda–by which he is referring to drone attacks and the like–are fine, albeit the really vicious body blow was the defeat of AQ and their sponsors in Iraq.  If you think our national image has been “restored” under this president as a result of his great foreign policy, more power to you.  Ring up Roger in London, maybe he’ll give you tea.
Since I’m pretty much the only guy in town who forecast the war against the mullahs, and it’s now so obvious that even MSM reporters and columnists can mention it without blushing, I’m sticking to my story.  I don’t think the ongoing assault against the regime is coming from outside Iran.  I think it comes from the Iranian opposition within the country.  And I think it shows that the opposition is a great deal stronger than the experts have opined.
If you were Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, what would you be saying to that unhealthy face in the mirror?  You’d say, “they come and go at will;  they obviously have the full cooperation of traitors at very high levels of the regime, even inside the Guards.  They not only knew Moghaddam was going to be there, but exactly where and when.  Now Isfahan, another heavily guarded base.  That doesn’t look like Zionists and infidels, whose pathetic collaborators we round up easily over and over again;  it looks like people who are trusted and supported by the traitors in my own house.”
When a regime cracks, even very high officials start to do favors for the opposition, hoping to avoid the worst if the regime comes down.  Khamenei knows that the head of the shah’s secret intelligence service went on to hold the same position under the fanatical Ayatollah Khomeini.  Recent events will have convinced the supreme leader that his own security may be as compromised as the shah’s was.
Add to this the dreams common to regular users of opium (Khamenei is one of them) and you’ve got a very explosive situation.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributor Dr. Michael Ledeen is the Freedom Scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is also a contributing editor at PJ Media and at National Review Online.

‘Iran is developing low-flying cruise missiles’

November 30, 2011

‘Iran is developing low-flying cruise missiles… JPost – Defense.

Iranian ballistic missile [illustrative]

    Iran is developing an advanced low-flying cruise missile that could potentially carry a non-conventional warhead, Arieh Herzog, director of the Defense Ministry’s Homa Missile Defense Agency, said on Wednesday.

Herzog, who will step down from his post in the beginning of the year, spoke at the annual International Aerospace Conference in Jerusalem.
Satellite image shows damage to Iran missile base

Earlier this month, close to 20 Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps officers, including the architect of Iran’s long-range ballistic missile program, were killed in a mysterious explosion at a missile base near the city of Bid Kaneh. The officers were reportedly working on the development of a new missile when the explosion took place.

“The Iranians are developing a capability that within several years, they will have cruise missiles that can fly at low altitudes and carry non-conventional warheads,” Herzog said.

Herzog said that Israel’s missile defense capabilities were drawn from the Iranian’s development of missiles.

Israel currently has three Iron Dome counter rocket defense batteries deployed throughout the country in additional to two Arrow batteries to defend against long-range ballistic missiles.

In 2012, the Air Force plans to begin deploying the David’s Sling to protect against medium-range missiles. The David’s Sling is being developed to also intercept cruise missiles.

Herzog also referred to the development of the Arrow-3 missile defense system which will serve as the upper tier of Israel’s multi-layered missile defense program. The system is expected to become operational by 2015.

“The system is in an advanced development stage and due to its capabilities we will have a number of interception possibilities out of the atmosphere,” Herzog said.