WarSclerotic

Israel: Lion or Lamb? | FrontPage Magazine.

As military analyst Yaakov Katz wrote recently in The Jerusalem Post, “Something has changed in Israel.” Once, it was renowned for daring military operations like the 1972 capture of five Syrian intelligence officers, the 1976 raid on the hijacked aircraft at Entebbe Airport in Uganda, and even as recently as 2007, the airstrike on a Syrian nuclear reactor. Today – following the Gilad Schalit swap last month for more than 1,000 convicted Palestinian terrorists – it is perceived by many as a country that caves to the arrogant demands of its enemies.

With Iran on the verge of acquiring the nuclear capability it needs to, as Ahmadinejad is fond of saying, “wipe Israel from the map,” many wonder if Israel is considering a possible preemptive military strike. But is Israel the country it once was? These days it seems it can barely push back against the Obama administration’s pressure to negotiate with Hamas and return to indefensible borders. Does an Israel that seemingly surrendered to the demands of terrorists have what it takes to neutralize the looming threat of a nuclear-weaponized Iran?

Yaakov Katz is the military correspondent and defense analyst for The Jerusalem Post and the Israel correspondent for Jane’s Defence Weekly, the international military magazine. Katz led the Post’s coverage of the recent IDF wars and operations, including the Second Lebanon War against Hezbollah in 2006 and Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip in 2009. He served in the IDF Armored Corps and lectures widely in the U.S. and Israel on military affairs. His first book, Israel vs. Iran: The Shadow War was a 2011 national bestseller in Israel and will be published in the U.S. next March.

Earlier this month at Temple Ner Maarav in Encino, California, Katz spoke on the recent, world-changing upheavals in the Middle East, particularly how the so-called Arab Spring is quickly degenerating into an Islamic Winter. He discussed how dramatic developments like the Schalit exchange are impacting Israel, its national security, and its future.

For Katz, one word characterizes the so-called Arab Spring: uncertainty. Will the Muslim Brotherhood make Egypt an Islamic state? When will Syria’s Assad be deposed, and when he does, into whose hands will his extensive arsenal of ballistic missiles and chemical weapons fall? Will the Iranian regime itself succumb to revolution? Such questions are at the core of the Israeli Defense Force’s challenge: how to prepare for the various elements of uncertainty arising in the wake of the Arab Spring/Islamic Winter.

The big winner and beneficiary of the Middle Eastern turmoil referred to blithely by the mainstream media as the Arab Spring is Iran. With Arabic regimes toppling left and right, Iran remains standing strong, and a looming threat to Israel, which it openly promises to obliterate. The window of opportunity for an Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities is closing rapidly. Katz says such a military option is unlikely to be chosen soon, but Israeli President Shimon Peres said recently that

The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option.

Where Iran is concerned, Katz pointed out, there are two clocks ticking: the nuclear clock and the revolution clock. Both are ticking down, but which will run out of time first?

When Katz ended his presentation to take questions, the recent Shalit swap was in the forefront of the audience’s collective mind; many wanted to know, quite simply, why? Why did Israel release over a thousand terrorists to gain Shalit’s release? Katz deplored the message that it sends – that terrorism and abductions are successful strategies – and said it’s time for Israel to establish a definitive policy about responses to such kidnappings, which are now sure to escalate. As to why, Katz reiterated what he suggested in his article cited above, about timing being the principal reason for the negotiation. Israel had to make the deal for Shalit before upcoming elections in Egypt bring to power an even more anti-Israel government: “By reaching a deal now, Netanyahu clears his desk and is able to focus on Israel’s true strategic predicaments.”

An audience member asked if Israel could put forward a tougher image by adopting the death penalty for convicted terrorists. But Katz noted that studies show, unsurprisingly, that capital punishment is no deterrent to Palestinian suicide bombers. As the terrorists often remind us, they love death more than we love life. The Palestinians, by the way, are definitely not partners in the peace process, Katz noted. They have one goal only: to delegitimize and isolate Israel until the Palestinians get everything they want.

Responding to a question about dealing with the threat of Syria, Katz explained that Israel would naturally like to see the antagonistic Assad regime fall, but throughout history, power vacuums in the Middle East are never filled by moderate elements. And so it could go with Syria, where a regime change could lead to a situation as in Egypt, where the Islamists are positioning themselves for control. So there is a debate within the Israeli defense establishment as to whether the Syrian devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.

“The coming year will be critical for Israel,” says Katz. In 1948 David Ben-Gurion pondered the question, “How will Israel survive amid its many enemies?” That same question is relevant today, and in partial answer, Katz claims that there is one characteristic the Israelis can be particularly proud of: resilience. Resilience is what enabled Israel to defeat its enemies in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, the Palestinian Intifadas, the wars in Lebanon. “That same resilience,” Katz is confident, “will continue to ensure the greatest miracle of modern times” – Israel’s existence and future.

But will it? Is resilience enough? As Steven Plaut puts it, the endless war in the Middle East will only end when Israel pursues “peace through victory,” “when Israel returns to its determination to end the terror through military victory and force of arms.”

A message from Iran – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: It is no coincidence that rocket attack on north came hours after Iran explosion

Daniel Nisman

Late Monday, residents of Israel‘s western Galilee were awoken by blasts caused by several rockets that landed near the Lebanon border. The barrage caused some property damage but no injuries.

Unlike Israel’s south, the Lebanese border has been relatively quiet, despite the presence of several militant groups that operate south of the Litani River. These factions vary in their religious and political ideologies, as well as their operational capability. Hezbollah is by far the most powerful of the groups, and boasts the capability to simultaneously launch hundreds of rockets as far south as the city of Dimona at nearly a moment’s notice.

Other, less capable groups include Palestinian and global Jihad factions, many of which have small arsenals of short-range rockets, and have been blamed for similar flare-ups in the past.

The latest attack was in no way a fluke. Unlike the Gaza Strip, any attack on Israel from Lebanon is perpetrated after considerable calculation by several parties, including Hezbollah which controls southern Lebanon, and its backers in Iran and Syria. These parties understand that a serious provocation could result in an even broader conflict that would result in widespread damage across Lebanon, far greater than that inflicted in the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

Despite the relative calm in Israel’s north, localized flare-ups have occurred over the years, oftentimes drawing an Israeli response in the form of symbolic artillery barrages into open areas. Many of these attacks have coincided with events concerning the Palestinians, either in the territories or elsewhere in the region.

It is no coincidence that the relative calm in the north was shattered just hours after another mysterious explosion rocked a strategically important Iranian city. The reported blast in Esfahan, a hub of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, was the latest in what is perceived to be an enhanced sabotage campaign by Western spy agencies following the latest critical report by the IAEA.

Volatile neighborhood

In addition, Syria has recently threatened retaliation against Israel and Jordan over the killing of six air force pilots by insurgents in a raid earlier this week. It is no secret that both Syria and Iran wield considerable influence of both Shiite and Sunni militants in southern Lebanon, providing them with logistical, monetary and ideological support. Of these groups, Hezbollah has long been open about its close alliance with Iran, often stating that an attack on the Iranian nuclear program would result in an escalation with Israel.

Despite these close ties, it is unlikely that Hezbollah was directly responsible for the latest attack. Domestically, the group’s political wing is facing the worst political crisis since it took power, with the March 14 opposition taking aim not only at its pro-Assad policies, but also on its insistence on maintaining its private army.

Amin Gemayel, a prominent opposition Christian figure, recently lashed out at Hezbollah, claiming that its “resistance” approach was no longer viable. Similar statements by other political figures signal that such sentiment is rapidly spreading among the Lebanese population, meaning that Hezbollah itself would have an especially difficult time justifying another conflict with Israel in the name of “resistance.”

The Syrians and Iranians understand Hezbollah’s military card is severely limited by its precarious domestic situation, yet still need an outlet from which to send a warning message to the Israelis. Palestinian and Sunni militant groups provide the most convenient option. The Syrian conflict has caused many of these groups to return to Lebanon, and the latest rocket barrage was preceded by a flux in inter-faction violence in Palestinian refugee camps in recent weeks.

Given its limited scope, the flare-up on the Lebanese border was mostly an example of the highly volatile way in which Israel and its enemies communicate. The fact that the attack was small in both scale and range signals that the Iranians and Syrians seek to warn the State of Israel that its operations to undermine Iranian or Syrian aspirations will not go unchecked.

Israel’s limited response was meant to send a message that it will retaliate for any provocation, but does not seek a major conflict. As in past flare-ups, Lebanese militias will not likely respond, a message to Israel that they too do not seek a wide-scale confrontation. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is likely to keep its military option hidden in its many bunkers for the time being, unleashing it only when it senses a substantial threat to its position of power in Lebanon, or at the behest of its Iranian puppet masters.

Daniel Nisman works for Max Security Solutions, a risk consulting company based in the Middle East

UNIFIL to deploy extra troops, patrols in Leba… JPost – Defense.

    The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said late Tuesday morning that it will deploy extra troops and patrols in southern Lebanon. The UN body also called for restraint from both sides: “This is a serious incident in violation of UN Security Council resolution 1701 and is clearly directed at undermining stability in the area.”

IDF artillery cannons pounded Lebanese targets early Tuesday morning in response to four Katyusha rockets fired into northern Israel.

Four 122 millimeter rockets fired from within Lebanon, just north of the border, landed in the Western Galilee shortly after midnight. No injuries were reported in the attacks.

The rockets landed close to the Lebanese border, causing some damage to a chicken coop and a propane gas tank. Firefighting crews were called in to cool down the gas tank.

Searches after the incident by the Lebanese army found the rocket launchers in the Rumaysh area of south Lebanon.

Lebanese security sources confirmed that four Katyusha rockets were fired into Israel from an area between the villages of Aita Shaab and Rumaysh, about 2 km from the border.

The IDF assessment is that it is not Hezbollah, but rather al-Qaida or Palestinian terror groups who operate inside Lebanon that were behind the rocket fire, as has been the case in the past with isolated attacks.

Israel holds the government of Lebanon responsible for keeping the peace along the border. Homefront Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said Tuesday that “the Lebanese government is responsible for everything that happens in Lebanon and everything that exits from its border.”

The IDF has planned to file an official complaint with UNIFIL over the attacks, and the IDF Northern Command went on full alert and was holding continuous evaluations in light of the events.

The Western Galilee was the target of Hezbollah rocket attacks during the 2006 Lebanon War, but the front has been largely quiet for the past several years. A small number of isolated rocket attacks struck northern Israel in the years following the Second Lebanon War, but no attacks have been reported in the last two years.

Davutoglu: Turkey ready for any scenario o… JPost – Middle East.

    ISTANBUL – Turkey does not want to consider a military option for intervention in neighboring Syria as Damascus cracks down on popular protest, but it is ready for any scenario, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Tuesday.

Davutoglu also said the international community may decide a buffer zone is needed in Syria if hundreds of thousands of people try to flee the violence there.

Syria is facing growing economic sanctions and condemnation over what the United Nations calls “gross human rights violations,” but President Bashar Assad shows no sign of buckling under pressure to end his military crackdown on protesters calling for his overthrow.

Davutoglu told Kanal 24 TV that the Syrian government needed to find a way to make peace with its own people, adding that Damascus still had a chance to accept international observers proposed by the Arab League.

“If the oppression continues, Turkey is ready for any scenario. We hope that a military intervention will never be necessary. The Syrian regime has to find a way of making peace with its own people,” he said, adding that a regime which tortures its own people has no chance of survival.

Another minister said Turkey would conduct trade with the Middle East via Iraq if the violence worsened in Syria.

Transport Minister Binali Yildirim made the comments after the Arab League imposed sanctions on Damascus over the crackdown, in which more than 3,500 people have been killed in eight months, according to the United Nations.

Turkey’s state-run Anatolian news agency quoted Yildirim on Tuesday as saying that Ankara would open new border gates with Iraq if necessary.

Ankara is expected to follow the Arab League in imposing sanctions on Syria, with which it has an 800-km (500 mile) border.

Yildirim said the sanctions would not harm the Syrian people. Turkey will selectively impose those sanctions announced by the Arab League to avoid harming the Syrian people, the Turkish newspaper Sabah reported on Tuesday.

The Arab League imposed the sanctions on Sunday and the European Union weighed in one day later.

Four Katyusha rockets from Lebanon hit northern Israel, gas tank struck – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Israel’s security services do not believe Hezbollah to be responsible for overnight attack, but rather a smaller faction; IDF calls incident serious and say responsibility lays with Lebanese government.

By Jack Khoury, Eli Ashkenazi, Gili Cohen and Reuters Tags: IDF Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah

Four Katyusha rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel on Monday night, causing damage to buildings and igniting a blaze that firefighters fought for hours. One of the 22-millimeter rockets struck a gas tank. No casualties were reported.

Police and IDF forces scanned the area in search of more rockets and were able to confirm that four rockets had fallen. While Northern District Police raised the alertness level it did not issue instructions for northern Israel’s residents to enter bomb shelters, and no alarm was sounded. The Israel Defense Forces said the incident is serious and that it holds the Lebanese government responsible for stopping rocket fire.

Israel’s security services do not believe Hezbollah is responsible for the overnight attack, but blame a smaller faction instead, likely to be linked to the global jihad movement. Those operating with the global jihad in southern Lebanon are known to be Palestinians.

This is the first disturbance of its type in almost two years and the eighth since the cease fire ended the Second Lebanon War. So far, one Israeli has been wounded in those incidents.

The Israel Defense Forces responded to the fire with artillery directed at the source of the attack.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hinted earlier this month that an Israeli attack on Iran or Western military involvement in Syria would lead to confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. “I’m not issuing threats, but it’s plain to see that an Israel-American attack on Iran or military involvement in Syria will lead to a regional war,” Nasrallah said.

No organization has yet to take responsibility the rocket fire.

The Israeli-Lebanese border has been largely quiet in recent years, though some have worried about a possible spillover of tensions from a months-old revolt in Syria against President Bashar Assad and from a stiffening of Western sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

IDF fires on Lebanon after at least 3 rockets … JPost – Defense.

    IDF artillery cannons pounded Lebanese targets early Tuesday morning in response to at least three rockets fired into northern Israel.

Three 122 millimeter rockets fired from within Lebanon, just north of the border, landed in the Western Galilee shortly after midnight, with police searching for a possible fourth rocket. No injuries were reported in the attacks.

The rockets landed close to the Lebanese border , causing some damage to a chicken coop and a gas tank. Firefighting crews were called in to cool down a propane gas tank that was struck.

Police were searching for a possible fourth rocket in the Western Galilee after residents reported hearing an explosion in the area.

The IDF said in a statement that it views the rocket attacks as a severe incident and it holds the Lebanese government and the Lebanese military responsible for preventing such actions.

The IDF Northern Command has gone on full alert and is holding continuous evaluation in light of the events, the statement added.

The Western Galilee was a target of Hezbollah rocket attacks during the 2006 Lebanon War, but the front has been largely quiet for the past several years. A small number of isolated rocket attacks struck northern Israel in the years following the Second Lebanon War, but no attacks have been reported in the last two years.

The IDF assessment is that it is not Hezbollah, but rather al-Qaida or Palestinian terror groups who operate inside Lebanon that were behind the rocket fire, as has been the case in the past with isolated attacks.

The IDF planned to file an official complaint with UNIFIL over the attacks.

The IDF has confirmed that their was not an explosion near the southern Lebanese city of Tyre last week, as opposed to media reports claiming that a blast had occurred.The reports had claimed that a Hezbollah weapons cache had exploded in the area, but the IDF sent a drone over the village which did not detect any indication of an explosion.

The IDF in the past has used footage taken by drones to disseminate to the media information about Hezbollah’s continued violations of UN Resolution 1701 and its continued military buildup in the area.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 28, 2011, 7:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

Coffin of Syrian elite pilot

A group of military officers from NATO and Persian Gulf nations have quietly established a mixed operational command at Iskenderun in the Turkish Hatay province on the border of North Syria, debkafile‘s military sources report. Hailing from the United States, France, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with Turkish officers providing liaison, they do not represent NATO but are self-designated “monitors.” Their mission is to set up “humanitarian corridors” inside Syria to serve the victims of Bashar Assad’s crackdown. Commanded by ground, naval, air force and engineering officers, the task force aims to move into most of northern Syria.

Laying the groundwork for the legitimacy of the combined NATO-Arab intervention in Syria, the UN Independent International Commission set up to assess the situation in Syria published a horrendous report Monday, Nov. 28 on the Assad regime’s brutalities. It documented “gross violations of human rights” and “patterns of summary execution, arbitrary arrest, enforced disappearance, torture including sexual violence, as well as violations of children’s rights.”
Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Moallem fought back by showing a press conference Monday photos of dismembered bodies of Syrian soldiers as proof of the atrocities he claimed were perpetrated by the anti-Assad opposition.  He also complained that “the Arab League and others refuse to believe that there is a foreign conspiracy targeting Syria.”

debkafile military sources report exclusively that the Western-Arab intervention in the Syrian crisis is in an advanced state of operational planning. It entails a buffer zone in northern Syria encompassing beleaguered towns, primarily Idlib, Rastan and Homs – but also Aleppo, Syria’s largest city (2.5 million mostly Sunni and Kurdish inhabitants).

The protest movement never caught on in Aleppo, home to the moneyed classes who run the country’s financial and trading sectors, and it was confined to the highway network feeding the city. Therefore, for the Assad regime, bringing Aleppo into the “humanitarian corridor” system under foreign military control will round of the damage caused by the economic sanctions approved this week by the Arab League. Losing Aleppo will fatally hammer the economy into the ground and rob the Syrian ruler of funding for sustaining his military crackdown to wipe out the unrest in the areas remaining under his control.

Aware of this threat, Foreign Minister al-Moallem accused the Arab League of declaring economic war on Syria.