WarSclerotic

Syria: 47 soldiers killed over weekend – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Syrian army suffers major blow as deserters mount deadly attacks against Assad’s combatants. Arab League discusses further sanctions on Damascus

AFP

The Syrian armyhas suffered a major blow this weekend with 47 soldiers killed in clashes with deserters since Thursday. Twenty-six soldiers were killed on Thursday, 13 on Friday and eight in the latest attack on Saturday.

A Syrian rights group said that at least 40 were injured when defectors mounted an attack in the Idlib region. According to the report, none of the deserters were hurt themselves. As many as 70 people were killed on Saturday alone, human rights activists said. The Free Syrian Army, comprised of army defectors, claims to include 20,000 fighters led by General Riyadh al-Asaad.

Arab finance ministers are currently meeting in Cairo to discuss economic sanctions on Damascus after it rejected a proposal to send hundreds of inspectors into Syria.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judah asked Arab League members to discuss sanctions while taking into consideration each country’s interests. He said that Jordan has prosperous trade ties with Syria and noted that many Jordanian students study in the country.

Earlier on Saturday, Syrian President Bashar Assad lashed out at his Turkish critics remarking that “some in Turkey are still clinging to the dream of reinstating the Ottoman Empire.”

The Turkish leaders, he added, “Know that this dream is impossible, so they are trying to exploit parties with a religious agenda to expand their influence on the Arab world.”

Arab League plans to freeze Syria economic… JPost – Middle East.

    Arab states plan to cut commercial ties with Syria’s government and freeze its assets as they step up pressure to end months of political violence in the country, a draft document to be discussed by Arab ministers on Sunday showed.

The sanctions would also include a travel ban on senior Syrian officials and a halt to commercial flights to the country, according to the Arab League document seen by Reuters on Saturday.

Dealings with Syria’s central bank would be halted, it said, but basic commodities needed by the Syrian people would be exempted from the list of sanctions.

Syria’s economy is already reeling from months of unrest, aggravated by US and European sanctions on oil exports and several state businesses.

The document, drawn up by the Arab League’s Social and Economic Committee at a preparatory meeting in Cairo in Saturday, would need to be ratified by ministers before coming into force.

The document was drafted after Damascus missed a Friday deadline to sign an agreement under which the Arab League planned to send observers to Syria, where the United Nations says 3,500 people have been killed since the start of the uprising in March.

Despite Syria’s pledge this month to withdraw its army from urban areas and let in the monitors, the violence has continued, prompting reprisals from the Arab League, stinging rebukes from Turkey and French proposals for humanitarian intervention.

Damascus says regional powers have helped incite the violence, which it blames on armed groups targeting civilians and its security forces.

Russian navy nears Cyprus drilling zone | Defence news from Greece and Cyprus.

(This piece leaves me speechless…. Are the Russians actually IN on the plan to weaken Iran and just playing the good cop? – JW)

THE “Admiral Kuznetsov” class aircraft carrier is currently off the coast of Malta and heading for eastern Mediterranean from their base in the Barents Sea.

Informed sources have said that the Russian navy and Israeli military will hold joint exercises next week close to Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone.

The exercises are slated to begin on the 28th November and last a week.

Commentators say that Russia is determined to send the message that they have invested interests in the region and will secure them.

It is understood that the aircraft carrier is carrying 24-fixed wing planes and a number of helicopters. It has also been reported in the press that the Russian navy may request to use port facilities at Limassol.

The radio report also claimed that three Russian destroyers are currently anchored off the Syrian coast. Russia’s naval supply and maintenance site near Syria’s Mediterranean port of Tartus will be modernized to accommodate heavy warships after 2012, the Russian Navy chief said earlier this week.

“Tartus will be developed as a naval base. The first stage of development and modernization will be completed in 2012,” Adm. Vladimir Vysotsky said, adding it could then serve as a base for guided-missile cruisers and even aircraft carriers.

The Soviet-era facility is operated under a 1971 agreement by Russian personnel.

Russian relations with Cyprus are at their best in many years. Last month, the Russian Ambassador to Cyprus Vyacheslav Shumskiy said that Moscow fully supports the sovereign right of Cyprus to exploit its natural resources.

“Our position is absolutely clear , and we were among the first countries to comment on that, and we totally support the sovereign right of the Cypriot people for exploitation of natural resources , this is totally in accordance with the international law and with the EU regulations, so there is no doubt about that”, he noted.

Invited to comment on Turkish threats against Cyprus, he said that Turkey’s position is not “very wise”.

The Associated Press: Iran threatens to hit Turkey if US, Israel attack.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — A senior commander of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard says the country will target NATO’s missile defense shield in Turkey if the U.S. or Israel attacks the Islamic Republic.

Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Guards’ aerospace division, is quoted by the semiofficial Mehr news agency as saying the warning is part of a new defense strategy to counter what it sees as an increase in threats from the U.S. and Israel.

He says Iran will now respond to threats with threats rather than a defensive position.

Tehran says NATO’s early warning radar station in Turkey is meant to protect Israel against Iranian missile attacks if a war breaks out with Israel.

Turkey agreed to host the radar in September as part of NATO’s missile defense system.

Syrian dissidents to get arms, volunteers from Libya to fight Assad’s regime.

Al Arabiya

Saturday, 26 November 2011

Lebanese and Syrians living in Lebanon carry a Syrian flag as they march in a protest in solidarity with Syria’s anti-government protesters, in Tripoli, northern Lebanon. (Reuters)

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France bid for Syria humanitarian corridor unjustified, UN says – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(I wonder how many civilians per day Assad has to kill before the UN would say it was justified. – JW)

Humanitarian coordinator Valerie Amos says 3 million people affected by uprising against President Bashar Assad, Syria’s Red Crescent sought support to feed 1.5 million people.

By Reuters and DPA

French proposals for “humanitarian corridors” in Syria to help civilians affected by eight months of unrest are not justified by humanitarian needs identified so far in the country, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator said.

Valerie Amos said 3 million people had been affected by the uprising against President Bashar Assad, and Syria’s Red Crescent had sought support to feed 1.5 million people.

	Valerie Amos, UN undersecretary-general for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, speaks during a press conference in Beijing.
	Photo by: AP

“A number of suggestions have been made on how to provide assistance to Syrians affected by the current unrest,” Amos said, referring to proposals for humanitarian corridors or buffer zones.

“At present, the humanitarian needs identified in Syria do not warrant the implementation of either of those mechanisms,” she said, adding that the United Nations had been unable to assess comprehensively those needs because of the limited number of international staff operating in Syria.

“Before any further discussion of these options, it is essential to get a clearer sense of what exactly people need, and where,” Amos said in a statement released on Friday.

Discussion on Syria comes as the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate. Ten people were killed Saturday as government forces continue to crush a revolt against President Bashar Assad and his government, activists said.

“Syrian security forces stormed the area of Deir az-Zour, near the Turkish border, killing eight people, while two others were shot dead near a mosque in the central Homs region,” activists based in northern Lebanon told a DPA reporter.

The United Nations says more than 3,500 people have been killed in Assad’s crackdown on eight months of protests against his rule. Syria blames armed groups for killing 1,100 soldiers and police.

The proposal for humanitarian corridors to address civilian suffering were outlined by France on Wednesday, in the first Western initiative for intervention on the ground.

They could link Syrian civilian centers to the Turkish or Lebanese frontiers, to the Mediterranean coast or to an airport, enabling the supply of humanitarian supplies or medicines to people in need.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said the plan fell short of a military intervention but acknowledged that humanitarian convoys might need armed protection.

Foreign powers are seeking to persuade Damascus to accept such a scheme, diplomats said. Without Syrian agreement, they said the only way humanitarian corridors could work would be if they were backed by force, ideally supported by a UN resolution.

Amos said thousands of Syrians had fled their country and many more sought refuge with family or friends away from their homes. Food and fuel prices had risen, and the economy was declining, she said.

US Government Urges American Citizens to Leave Syria [Updated] –

(What the author fails to take into account is that the confusion over the carrier could well be the result of intentional disinformation.  The Iranians and the Russians are both reporting it being off Syria. – JW)

USS George H W Bush (via Wikipedia)

Please see updates below.

As the violent crackdown against Syrian dissidents continues, the US government is warning all American citizens in the country to leave immediately, according to CBS. Turkish citizens are also being warned to stay out of the country. The US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, was pulled from that country last month.

The U.S. embassy continues to urge U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available,” began a statement released Wednesday on the embassy website. “The number of airlines serving Syria has decreased significantly since the summer, while many of those airlines remaining have reduced their number of flights.”

Meanwhile, Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge notices that according to Stratfor, the “CVN 77 George H.W. Bush has left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz, a critical choke point, where it traditionally accompanies the Stennis, and has parked… right next to Syria.”

What does all this mean?

Well, the initial success of the mission in Libya may be giving leaders in the Western world the confidence boost they need to initiate yet another intervention.

Of course, any intervention into Syria will prompt an Iranian response. War with Syria and Iran would make the Iraq War look like a leisurely stroll along the Tigris.

Are we going to war with Syria? It’s much too early to say, but the ominous warnings to leave the country, the sudden arrival of the aircraft carrier, and the increasing tension in Syria along with the inability of anyone to force Syria’s hand makes it look increasingly, and frighteningly, more likely.

As unthinkable as this is, I don’t think we should discount the possibility. I think it would be a disaster with long-term, wide-ranging consequences both at home and abroad, but I don’t think we should count on the wisdom of our elected officials to keep us out of foreign wars. Especially during an election season.

[Update]

According to its Facebook page the USS George H. W. Bush is off the coast of France at the moment. A few thoughts:

1) Not sure if Stratfor got this wrong or if Durden interpreted the Stratfor information incorrectly.

2) The US Government is still telling citizens to leave the country. This doesn’t mean we’re planning an invasion, obviously, but signs are not good. Even if this is all posturing, I think recent history should give us pause. We have reason to worry regardless of the location of this particular aircraft carrier.

3) Aircraft carriers have Facebook pages. Seriously, who knew?

Follow me on Twitter or Facebook. Read my Forbes blog here.

Forbes.

Blog: US urges citizens to leave Syria ‘immediately’.

Rick Moran

Assad’s fall good for Israel – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

(Precisely the same as my own analysis.  I add, however, that this situation was likely purposefully created or helped along by the Western powers and the Arab countries precisely for this purpose.  To make Iran an irrelevancy in the Middle East. – JW)

Op-ed: Greatest opportunity to curb Iran’s ambitions lies in toppling Syrian regime

Yishai Fleisher

Everyone is talking Iran. Go to any AIPAC meeting and you will hear about Iran, and if Israel’s PM speaks publicly he will surely mention Iran.

This is what Prime Minister Netanyahu said at the Joint Session of Congress: “Time is running out, and the hinge of history may soon turn. For the greatest danger facing humanity could soon be upon us: A militant Islamic regime armed with nuclear weapons.” On CNN, Ehud Barakmade similar points. The threat of Iran has been articulated loudly by Israel.

Indeed, even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report confirmed Israel’s long-standing concerns that Iran aims to build a nuclear weapon, which Israelsees as a threat to its existence.

However, the greatest opportunity to curb Iran’s ambitions is sitting on the world’s doorstep. The potential upcoming fall of the Syrian regime opens the door for Israel to finally gain greater regional stability and for the world to begin throwing off the yoke of Iranian fear.

Syria is the long arm of Iran, its striking force. From within Syria’s borders the powerful terror/political groups Hezbollah and Hamas suckle the poison milk of armament, training, and Jihadinculcation in relative safety. Syria provides the key overland route between Iran and Lebanon which has served as a conduit for the transfer of massive shipments of military hardware to Hezbollah in from Iran.

The US State Department estimates Iranian support of Hezbollah ranges between $100 and $200 million annually. Through this military might, south Lebanon has become the sole domain of Hezbollah.

Syria is also host to Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Hamas’ control room of terror. That makes perfect sense as both Hamas and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies, and Iranian proxies feel good in Syria.

But now, the Syrian regime is facing what the Iranian regime faced in 2009 – a popular revolt. This time there is also an ethnic component: Bashar Assad‘s sect, the Alawites, are but a 15% of Syria’s majority Sunni population. The Syrian regime, true to its emulation of the Iranian regime, is simply killing people in the streets to put down the revolt. So far the UN believes that the assault on opposition supporters has left more than 3,500 dead in nine months. People on the ground report much greater numbers, upwards of 10,000.

In Syria, opposition forces are gathering steam. Syrian army defectors, some 15,000 Sunni conscripts, are banding together under the name Free Syria Army and are transforming the uprising into an armed insurgency. A new umbrella organization called Syria’s National Council is trying to unite anti-government groups. Even the Arab League, usually reticent to call out a member state, has strongly condemned and then suspended Syria from its ranks.

Support of Hamas will wither

However, while Syrians unite to fight the regime, and members of the Arab League feel the pressure of the Arab street, China and Russia have shown support for Assad’s grip. In early October, Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution blaming the Syrian regime for the escalation of violence. Syria has long been Russian’s main ally in the Middle East and Russia maintains a naval base there. China fears instability in a region that sells it oil. Both Russia and China also have important economic and geopolitical interests in Iran and do not want its power diminished.

But even the Chinese and Russian wall is destined to crumple. Ausama Monajed, an adviser to the president of the Syrian National Council, was quoted in “The Atlantic” saying that “The only thing saving the regime so far has been that Russia and China were prepared to block any resolution against Syria at the Security Council. But now it has become clear that the Arab League will use its leverage with Russia and China to persuade them to back their position and not use their veto power, and it is clear that neither Russia nor China would compromise their position with the Arab League, particularly Saudi Arabia, just to save Assad.”

So far the Arab Spring may have benefited Iran overall. Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-Syrian Fulbright scholar and columnist for Harvard International Review, wrote on Fox: “In terms of the nuclear proliferation, the events of the Arab Spring seem to have benefited the Iranian regime due to the fact that it has diverted the attention of the international community from Iranian nuclear development to the socio-political transitions in neighboring Arab nation.”

That may have been true up to this point. But with the upcoming fall of the Assad regime Iran’s power will be weakened, at least locally. The pernicious overland route between Iran and Hezbollah will be hampered or broken. Hezbollah will have to go at it alone and maybe face its own Arab Spring down the line. Without the Assad-state, the Iranian backing of Hamas and Hezbollah will wither and leave the terror proxies more vulnerable to an Israeli attack as well.

And for those who fear a Hezbollah preemptive strike on Israel, Michael Young from the Lebanese English paper The Daily Star argues that Sunni and Christians in Lebanon will balk at the idea of Hezbollah taking Lebanon into a war against Israel on behalf of Iran. Without Assad’s regime to control these groups, Hezbollah will have hostile elements at its rear preventing it from attacking Israel as an Iran proxy.

Hopefully the effects of a successful Syrian uprising will spread even farther. Maybe the fall of Syrian dictatorship will re-inspire the Iranian people to try again, to stand up to despotic violence and throw off the yoke of Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad once and for all.

No one knows what will replace the brutal Assad regime: A Jihadist junta, a drawn out civil war or, or even the eventual rise of a freedom loving society. But it is certain that breaking the Syria-Iran axis will benefit Israel and the world also stands to gain through any weakening of the ambitious Iranian war machine.