WarSclerotic

IAEA board rebukes defiant Iran … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    VIENNA – The UN nuclear watchdog board of governors censured Iran on Friday over mounting suspicions it may be seeking to develop atomic bombs, after the six big powers overcame divisions on how to best deal with a defiant Tehran.

But the resolution, which won overwhelming support at the 35-nation meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), omitted any concrete punitive steps, reflecting Russian and Chinese opposition to cornering Iran.

It was adopted by 32 votes for and two against – Cuba and Ecuador. Indonesia abstained.

Iran showed no sign of backing down in the protracted dispute over its atomic activities, threatening to take legal action against the Vienna-based UN agency for issuing a hard-hitting report about Tehran’s nuclear program.

Last week’s IAEA report presented a stash of intelligence indicating that Iran has undertaken research and experiments geared to developing a nuclear weapons capability. It has stoked tensions in the Middle East and redoubled calls in Western capitals for stiffer sanctions against Tehran.

Iran says it is enriching uranium only as fuel for nuclear power plants, not atomic weapons. It has dismissed the details in the IAEA report obtained mainly from Western spy agencies as fabricated, and accusing the IAEA of a pro-Western slant.

Iran’s ambassador to the Vienna-based IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, accused the agency of leaking the report early to the United States, Britain and France. Some of its contents appeared in Western media before their release on 8 November.

Iran considers the IAEA report “unprofessional, unbalanced, illegal and politicized”, Soltanieh told the board meeting before the vote, the second against Iran in as many years.

“Any resolutions based on this report … are not legally binding, thus they are not applicable.”

Overcoming divisions between the big powers

The six powers spearheading diplomacy on Iran – the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany – this week ironed out the resolution in intense talks and submitted it to the board, a mix of industrialized and developing countries.

The fact that it was backed by all the big powers guaranteed it would sail through the board, whose governors comprise a mix of industrialized and developing states.

But it will not placate those in the West and in Israel, Iran’s arch-foe, who had hoped Amano’s report would bring about concrete international action to corral Tehran, such as an IAEA referral of its case to the UN Security Council.

“At this point, it doesn’t really ratchet up the pressure on Iran,” said proliferation expert Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noting the text did not set any deadlines for Iran to resolve outstanding issues.

With several rounds of nuclear talks having led nowhere, failing even to agree an agenda, the Security Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran since 2006. But Moscow and Beijing, with hefty trade and energy stakes in Iran, have made clear their opposition to further such steps.

Diplomats cast the powers’ resolution text as a compromise between Western states, which would have preferred sharper language, and Russia and China, which resisted out of concern not to lose trade or burn all bridges for talks with Tehran.

Russia has criticized the IAEA for publishing its report on Iran last week. In contrast, Western states seized on it to press for additional sanctions on the Islamic Republic, but Russia has flatly ruled this out at the UN level.

The resolution expressed “deep and increasing concern about the unresolved issues regarding the Iranian nuclear program, including those which need to be clarified to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions”.

It called on Tehran to open up fully to UN inspectors and investigators and “engage seriously and without preconditions in talks” to address nuclear concerns. It asked Amano to report back to the board’s next meeting in March.

In November 2009, IAEA governors including Russia and China rebuked Iran for building a uranium enrichment plant in secret. Iran rejected that vote as “intimidation.”

Scores killed as Syria requests change to Arab plan; Russia calls for ‘restraint’.

Al Arabiya

y, 18 November 2011

Demonstrators shout slogans as they protest against the government of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad after Friday prayers in front of the Syrian consulate in Istanbul. (Reuters)

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Clinton on GOP Criticism on Iran Policy: ‘Iran Cannot Be Permitted to Have a Nuclear Weapon; No Option Is Off the Table’ – ABC News.

( While she doesn’t make the final decision, it’s hard to ignore Clinton on Iran. – JW)

Michael Loccisano/Getty Images

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton refrained from wallowing into the political waters stirred during the recent Republican presidential debate, when the Obama administration’s foreign policy – especially as it pertains to Iran – was assailed.

But asked about Mitt Romney’s pledge that Iran would never obtain a nuclear weapon during his presidency, and Romney’s assertion that he would more aggressively remind the Iranians that he would be willing to use military means to end their nuclear weapons capability, Clinton reiterated that “it is the policy of this administration that Iran cannot be permitted to have a nuclear weapon and no option has ever been taken off the table.”

Clinton said that “President Obama has forged a consensus in the international community, including China and Russia, to a much greater extent than was ever done before. … The sanctions are really having an impact, and there will be … more to come if necessary.”

TAPPER: The foreign policy of the Obama administration was under fire a few days ago when the Republicans had a debate. Particularly the Iran policy, which so far has failed to convince the Iranian leadership to stop pursuing a nuclear weapon. Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, said that if he was president he would be more aggressive about asserting the fact the military option is on the table. He would be reaching out more to what he called the insurgency. And he said under the Romney administration, Iran would not get a nuclear weapon. Can the Obama administration make such a guarantee?

CLINTON: Well first of all, I’m not going to comment on the political give and take of the Republican primary. That’s something that, uh, I’m really not paying a lot of attention to –

TAPPER: — Sure, but the issue itself –

CLINTON: But the issue itself, I think that what has actually happened over the last three years is that President Obama has forged a consensus in the international community, including China and Russia, to a much greater extent than was ever done before. You get no argument now from anybody that, uh, we want to work together to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

And I think we’ve made progress. The sanctions are really, having an impact and there will be, you know, more to come if necessary. And what we are looking at is what’s going on inside Iran. There’s a lot of discontent. A lot of political upheaval and some of that is due to the pressure that is being brought to bear from the outside.

So, you know, I understand politics. I’ve spent a lot of my life in it, but I think looking at the facts, uh, we are, uh, on a steady course that combines our dual tracks of pressure and engagement and it is the policy of this administration that Iran cannot be permitted to have a nuclear weapon and no option has ever been taken off the table

Nuclear resolution keeps pressure on Iran but lacks teeth | World | Deutsche Welle | 18.11.2011.

Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: For many the IAEA resolution on Iran doesn’t go far enough

An IAEA resolution on Iran expresses ‘deep and increasing concern’ over a nuclear program which few now doubt has military links. A more strongly worded document failed to win support from Russia and China.

Panetta Seems More Interested in Stopping Israel Than Iran « Commentary Magazine.

(What this article fails to consider is the possibility that Panetta is doing his job an putting out disinformation. – JW)

Last week, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta did Iran a favor by publicly pouring cold water on the possibility of the United States using force to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In doing so, the Pentagon chief removed whatever lingering doubts the ayatollahs may have had about America’s long-term intentions. This piece of mind will, no doubt, spur them to redouble their efforts to go nuclear. But in case they missed that message, the secretary doubled down on it yesterday. According to Reuters, Panetta told reporters (who had accompanied him on a trip to Halifax, Canada, where he will attend a security forum and meet with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak), the same points he mentioned last week about the unintended consequences of an attack on Iran and how it would only delay their nuclear program. He added that such hostilities would also hurt the world economy.

While there are good reasons to be cautious about embarking on a military campaign against Iran, Panetta’s concerns are overblown. But more importantly, with this second statement in a week against an attack, Panetta’s priorities on the issue are becoming clear. At this point, he’s not so much trying to stop Iran from going nuclear as he is doing all he can to make sure Israel doesn’t attack them.

As for Panetta’s worries about the use of force, it’s true even a full-scale American bombing campaign on Iranian nuclear targets would not end the threat for all time. But the use of force would delay their nuclear project for years; if the U.S. military’s job was thorough, perhaps quite a long time. But however much time was bought, it would not be in vain. Because an Iranian nuclear presents a strategic challenge to the entire region as well as an existential threat to Israel, every day of peace purchased by such an offensive would be precious. In the meantime, a lot could happen to prevent further mischief, such as regime change in Tehran or the development of even better anti-missile defenses. Even a few years could make the difference between life and death for millions.

Panetta’s also right that another war in the Persian Gulf would have a big impact on the global economy. But what does he think the consequences of Iranian nukes would have on world finances? An Iranian nuclear bomb would give Iran outsized influence over the world’s biggest suppliers of oil and perhaps give them the ability to hold the world hostage. An Iranian nuclear umbrella over Iran’s terrorist proxies in Lebanon and Gaza would also make the region more dangerous and perhaps set in motion a chain of events that could do just as much damage to the financial world as an effort to prevent the ayatollahs from gaining nukes.

The United States has no easy choices when it comes to Iran. Russian and Chinese backing for Iran dooms efforts to create meaningful international sanctions. Military action would be costly and messy, as Panetta rightly insists, with unintended consequences that could be complicated.

But we also know that doing nothing — and it must be said that the Obama administration’s feckless diplomacy on the issue has turned out to be the moral equivalent of nothing — will be just as dangerous and costly. Whatever the United States’ intentions regarding Iran, it’s imperative for Panetta to stop sending signals to Tehran that demonstrate the administration’s unwillingness to act. A series of statements that makes it look as if Washington is more afraid of Israel taking action on Iran than it is of the nuclear threat itself has made the already difficult task of restraining Iran even harder.

Iran to start air defence drill simulating Israeli attacks – Monsters and Critics.

Nov 18, 2011, 16:57 GMT Tehran – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards will carry out an air defence drill simulating an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites, the official news agency IRNA said Friday. The Revolutionary Guards said in a statement that the drill was aimed at ensuring Iran was ready for any attacks on its nuclear facilities and other strategic sites. The announcement came shortly after the United Nations nuclear agency adopted a resolution calling on Iran to respond to a report by the watchdog indicating that Tehran had made tests on designs used for making a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking a nuclear bomb and says its programme is peaceful. Israel considers a nuclear armed Iran an existential threat. There has been mounting speculation in the media that Israel would strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if Iran continues to defy international demands that it allay western concerns over it nuclear activities. Iranian military officials have warned that Israel would regret such any preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities.

Report: Arab Nations Pressing for Iran Strike – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

F-16

US Department of Defense

Newly acquired intelligence reports indicate several Arab countries in the Middle East are lobbying the US to strike Iran this year, Israel’s Channel 10 reported.

According to the report, which is said to be making its rounds in Britain’s political circles, Saudi Arabia wants the Obama administration to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before the final withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

US president has vowed to close the door on American military involvement in Iraq by year’s end, but Riyadh is reportedly afraid Iran will use the American exit to take over the country.

Since 2008, officials in the Iraqi interim government have complained to Washington that both Iran and Saudi Arabia were, respectively, funding the Shiite and Sunni insurgencies that have plagued the country since the US-led invasion that toppled late dictator Sadam Hussein.

Security experts say Baghdad’s security forces are unprepared to confront the rival insurgencies that hold Iraq in their grip – and that Obama’s dogged drive to fulfill his campaign promise may have disastrous consequences both for the region and US interests.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies have been locked in a strategic battle with Iran for hegemony over the Persian Gulf – and have accused Tehran of seeking to destabilize the region through its ‘Shiite Diaspora.’

Gulf Arab leaders have sought to exert pressure on Iran and its regional allies – most notably Syrian president Bashar al-Assad – by allying themselves with Western powers opposed to Tehran’s aggressive posture.

They have also joined western powers in targeting Iran’s nuclear program, which they see as targeting them first and foremost – rather than Israel, who Iran has threatened repeatedly with destruction.

Suadia Arabia has also said, should Iran obtain nuclear weapons, Riyahd will seek them as well – raising the specter of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Analysts say this may be a lever to spur Obama to alter course from his current passive, sanctions-driven posture towards Iran.

Despite this, Arab powers have been reticent to publicly call for an Iran strike – which has been a high profile part of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s diplomatic agenda.

Instead, observers say, they have sought to work behind the scenes to avoid being seen as working in concert with Israel.

‘Iran is on a collision course with the West’ – Defence Management.

18 November 2011

Defence analyst Anthony Tucker-Jones reports on how close Tehran is to war with the West

In recent weeks it has looked increasingly like the West is on a collision course with Iran. This would be a disaster for all concerned.

The cause for this is the mounting alarm is that Iran may only be a year away from possessing a nuclear weapon. Israel’s sabre rattling in response has become particularly strident, raising fears it may take unilateral military action.

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council have expressed “deep and increasing concern about unresolved issues regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, including those which need to be clarified to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions.”

A key area of concern is the Fordo enrichment facility, 30km north of Qom. Intelligence indicates Iran intends to shift much of its nuclear production to this old Revolutionary Guard missile site, secure beneath the mountains. The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expecting Fordo to commence enriching Uranium this year, and Israel may feel compelled to act before that happens.

To compound matters it has emerged that Washington and Tel Aviv are at loggerheads over Israel’s possible military intentions. Israel had made it clear that it is simply not prepared to warn America in advance of any strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, nor will it seek Washington’s permission first.

Leon Panetta, the US Defence Secretary, has stated that any military strike will only delay Iran for up to three years. In the meantime the Iranians will be lashing out in revenge.

The IAEA has said in its latest report on Iran’s nuclear programme that it suspects Tehran is conducting secret experiments with the aim of developing nuclear weapons. The European Union claims the report indicates a fully-fledged nuclear weapons programme. However, in line with the IAEA’s usual doublespeak the report is fairly woolly and has not explicitly accused Iran of building a bomb. Instead, the IAEA states it has information indicating Iran has conducted activities “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.” Just how relevant is the burning question.

Claiming the IAEA report endorses intelligence is spurious, as the report is inevitably informed by intelligence. Once again the IAEA simply continues to hedge its bets, while Russia argues the report ‘does not contain fundamentally new information.’

Israel’s top defence priority is stopping Tehran acquiring the bomb, and the Israelis clearly feel that unilateral action is rapidly becoming their only option. In some quarters, recent talk of an Israeli air strike is considered to be dangerous brinkmanship by Tel Aviv to force the international community to impose punitive sanctions against Tehran. Indeed, former senior Israeli military and intelligence officials endorse this view and are aghast at the prospect and consequences of attacking Iran.

Israel wants a ban on Iran’s oil exports and sanctions against the Iranian central bank – this is not going to happen. The reality is that within the UN Security Council the West will be unable to overcome objections by China and Russia, leaving military action as the only alternative. Indeed, Russia has already said fresh sanctions are “unacceptable.”

Worryingly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has replaced all four of his senior military and intelligence chiefs who opposed military action. Their younger replacements will be much more amenable.

Israel’s ballistic missile programme means it could conduct missile strikes and avoid risking the Israeli Air Force. An upgraded Jericho 3 missile, able to hit anywhere in the Middle East, was test fired on 2 November. To make matters worse it is believed that the Jericho can carry a nuclear payload.

Possible targets include the suspected nuclear weapons development facility at Parchin, the heavy water reactor site at Arak, the Busheher nuclear power station, Gachin Uranium mine, the Uranium yellowcake conversion facility at Isfahan, the Uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and the Fordo enrichment facility.

There has even been talk of an attack before Christmas, but weather conditions indicate that next spring or summer would be more favourable. Behind the scenes, Washington will be working hard to persuade Tel Aviv not to act to this schedule.

Although the international community has been in this situation numerous times before, Iran seems incapable or unwilling to placate Western fears, as a result sooner or later something is going to give.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2011, 2:29 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s Sejil 2 ballistic missile.

Is the Stuxnet computer malworm back on the warpath in Iran?

Exhaustive investigations into the deadly explosion last Saturday, Nov. 12 of the Sejil-2 ballistic missile at the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Alghadir base point increasingly to a technical fault originating in the computer system controlling the missile and not the missile itself. The head of Iran’s ballistic missile program Maj. Gen. Hassan Moghaddam was among the 36 officers killed in the blast which rocked Tehran 46 kilometers away.
(Tehran reported 17 deaths although 36 funerals took place.)

Since the disaster, experts have run tests on missiles of the same type as Sejil 2 and on their launching mechanisms.

debkafile‘s military and Iranian sources disclose three pieces of information coming out of the early IRGC probe:
1.  Maj. Gen. Moghaddam had gathered Iran’s top missile experts around the Sejil 2 to show them a new type of warhead which could also carry a nuclear payload. No experiment was planned. The experts were shown the new device and asked for their comments.
2.  Moghaddam presented the new warhead through a computer simulation attached to the missile. His presentation was watched on a big screen. The missile exploded upon an order from the computer.

The warhead blew first; the solid fuel in its engines next, so explaining the two consecutive bangs across Tehran and the early impression of two explosions, the first more powerful than the second, occurring at the huge 52 sq. kilometer complex of Alghadir.

3.  Because none of the missile experts survived and all the equipment and structures pulverized within a half-kilometer radius of the explosion, the investigators had no witnesses and hardly any physical evidence to work from.

Iranian intelligence heads entertain two initial theories to account for the sudden calamity: a) that Western intelligence service or the Israeli Mossad managed to plant a technician among the missile program’s personnel and he signaled the computer to order the missile to explode; or b), a theory which they find more plausible, that the computer controlling the missile was infected with the Stuxnet virus which misdirected the missile into blowing without anyone present noticing anything amiss until it was too late.
It is the second theory which has got Iran’s leaders really worried because it means that, in the middle of spiraling tension with the United States and Israel or their nuclear weapons program, their entire Shahab 3 and Sejil 2 ballistic missile arsenal is infected and out of commission until minute tests are completed. Western intelligence sources told debkafile that Iran’s supreme armed forces chief Gen. Hassan Firouz-Abadi was playing for time when he announced this week that the explosion had “only delayed by two weeks the manufacturing of an experimental product by the Revolutionary Guards which could be a strong fist in the face of arrogance (the United States) and the occupying regime (Israel).”

Iran needs time to thoroughly investigate the causes of the fatal explosion and convince everyone that the computer systems controlling its missiles of the Stuxnet malworm will be cleansed and running in no time just like the  Natanz uranium enrichment installation and Bushehr atomic reactor which were decontaminated between June and September 2010.

If indeed Stuxnet is back, the cleanup this time would take several months, according to Western experts – certainly longer than the two weeks estimated by Gen. Firouz-Abadi.

Those experts also rebut the contention of certain Western and Russian computer pros that Stuxnet and another virus called Duqu are linked.

The head of Iran’s civil defense program Gholamreza Jalali said this week that the fight against Duqu is “in its initial phase” and the final report “which says which organizations the virus has spread to and what its impacts are has not been complete yet. All the organizations and centers that could be susceptible to being contaminated are under control.”

Iranian drug ring funding terror? – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Former Revolutionary Guard members claim despite strict anti-drug policy in Iran, elite forces run mass smuggling network to support radical Islamic factions including Hamas, Hezbollah

Dudi Cohen

The revenues of an Iranian-run global narcotics network is being transferred to terrorist organizations, London-based The Times newspaper quoted former Revolutionary Guard officials as saying on Friday.

According to the sources, members of the elite guard took over the Islamic Republic’s drug smuggling industry, and are using the revenues – estimated to reach dozens of billions of dollars – to build a solid support base for global crime networks and terror organizations acting against the West.

The report noted that hundreds of people are executed in Iran annually for drug smuggling and drug possession, as part of the administration’s hard-line policy against narcotics. However, behind the stage, the Revolutionary Guard is engaged in an extremely profitable business that is fueled by the smuggling of heroin, opium and methamphetamines.

The report was published on the heels of a recent controversy surrounding the suspected involvement of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite unit – the Quds Force – in the assassination attempt of the Saudi Ambassador to the United States.

Opium fields in Afghanistan (Photo: AFP)

Sources in Washington, who claimed that the Iranians planned to blow up a New York restaurant while the Saudi ambassador was dining there, said that the narcotics ring leaders were also planning to expand their smuggling routes to North America.

‘Their lives are worth less because they’re not Muslim’

The United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) identified at least one Revolutionary Guard commander directly involved in drug trafficking from Afghanistan through Iran, the sources told The Times.

The Iranian sources named two other seniors officials who they claimed were involved in the smuggling ring, including the Revolutionary Guard’s Tehran District Commander Abdullah Araqi, who is suspected of developing close relations with the eastern European underworld.

According to the report, the Iranians are using ships and planes to transport drugs to Albania, Bulgaria and Romania, and from there to western Europe.

“We were told that the drugs will destroy the sons and daughters of the West, and that we must kill them. Their lives are worth less because they are not Muslims,” a former Revolutionary Guard member told the paper.

The revenues funneled from the drug industry, the sources claimed, ars used to fund various Iranian military projects, including the development of missiles and weaponry, but is mostly aimed at “exporting the Islamic revolution” – a code name for sowing imbalance in other countries by supporting radical Islamist factions, including Hezbollah, the Islamic Jihad and Hamas.