WarSclerotic

President Obama Misleads the Public on Iran.

To what extent the Obama administration would provide support for an outright attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel or launch one itself is unclear

Speaking from the lush Hawaiian venue of the Asia-Pacific economic summit, Obama falsely claimed during a televised news conference on November 13th that “we are in a much stronger position now than we were two or three years ago with respect to Iran.”

The truth is precisely the opposite. Iran poses a graver and more immediate danger to world peace and security, and to the security of the U.S. homeland, than ever before. Iran is moving, virtually unimpeded, ever closer to developing a nuclear arms capability. Iran is also planning, or already building, at least one missile base in Venezuela, which will be equipped with medium-range missiles capable of reaching the United States mainland.

Moreover, Iran has announced that it will send its warships to establish a presence along the marine border with the eastern and southern coasts of the United States. Iranian Rear Adm. Seyed Mahmoud Mousavi said in July 2011 that its frigates and destroyers have been equipped with “surface-to-surface missiles.”

Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and military reach have extended beyond the Middle East, including to the Western Hemisphere. Its Quds forces, along with Hezbollah cells, are using Venezuela as a base from which to expand their activities throughout Latin America and to form collaborations with drug cartels in Mexico, for the purpose of infiltrating the United States through its porous southern border. And let’s not forget the alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington.

All of these serious provocations are happening during Obama’s watch. His appeasement policies, including his naive engagement-without-conditions approach to negotiating with Iran, have exacerbated the dangers.

Valuable time was lost as Obama continued his quixotic quest for unconditional talks with Iranian officials. And when there was a real opportunity for regime change during the Iranian “Green Movement” uprising against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent re-election in June 2009, Obama was AWOL.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations watchdog body dealing with nuclear power security, issued an alarming report last week with more detailed evidence than ever before that Iran is working toward developing a nuclear bomb capability. The report laid out information on the secretive Iranian program to enrich uranium, its development of a payload system to carry a nuclear weapon on a missile, and the computer modeling and testing of high explosives to trigger a nuclear device.

According to an ex-CIA agent, who had penetrated inside Iran’s Revolutionary Guard,  the Iranian regime “now has enough enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs.” Other more conservative experts have said that Iran now has the capability to make weapon-grade uranium and build at least one atomic weapon within six months. Either way, we are clearly running out of time to stop Iran from becoming a full-fledged nuclear arms power.

What has been Obama’s public response? More sanctions on top of the ones that have not stopped Iran’s progress. Obama even lauded Russia and China for standing with the United States in support of the past ineffective sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council, and held out the hope for a continued unified approach to Iran.

“When I came into office, the world was divided and Iran was unified around its nuclear program,” Obama said at his news conference. “We now have a situation where the world is united and Iran is isolated.  And because of our diplomacy and our efforts, we have, by far, the strongest sanctions on Iran that we’ve ever seen.  And China and Russia were critical to making that happen.”

Referring to the Russian and Chinese presidents with whom he met at the Asia-Pacific summit, Obama said that he spoke with “President Medvedev, as well as President Hu, and all three of us entirely agree on the objective, which is making sure that Iran does not weaponize nuclear power and that we don’t trigger a nuclear arms race in the region. That’s in the interests of all of us.”

What Obama failed to mention is that Russia in particular opposes any further sanctions or other punitive measures against Iran. In fact, Russia was angry that the IAEA report was even made public. A statement issued by the Foreign Ministry said that the report was “nothing but an intentional — and counterproductive — whipping up of emotions.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov was quoted by Interfax as saying that any new sanctions “will be seen in the international community as an instrument for regime change in Tehran. That approach is unacceptable to us, and the Russian side does not intend to consider such proposals.”

Russia and China, along with significant emerging countries like India, Brazil and South Africa, have complained that NATO misused the UN Security Council resolution authorizing military action to protect civilians in Libya as a pretext to force regime change in Libya. They are using that precedent as justification to oppose other Western initiatives in the Security Council against rogue regimes, including with respect to Syria as well as Iran.

Even if Medvedev were inclined to be cooperative with Obama at this point to bring more pressure to bear on Iran, which he is not, Medvedev will soon be replaced by the more hardline, bellicose Vladimir Putin.

Moreover, the Obama administration itself is reluctant to impose the one additional sanction that could have a real bite – cutting off Iran’s central bank from the international financial system. Iran’s central bank is the clearinghouse for much of its petroleum trade, which is the key driver of its economy. Cutting off Iran’s central bank from the international financial system would effectively freeze much of its oil export market with crippling effects on Iran’s economy. But fearing a spike in global oil prices that would likely result from such a cut-off and a potentially negative economic impact on U.S. allies which currently depend on imports of Iranian oil for which they make payments linked with the central bank, the Obama administration is unwilling to take the one bold step short of military action that could actually make a difference.

Obama did declare during his news conference that he was not taking any option off the table, presumably including the military option: “I have said repeatedly and I will say it today, we are not taking any options off the table, because it’s my firm belief that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would pose a security threat not only to the region but also to the United States.”

What that warning means is hard to say. Hopefully, the Obama administration is using covert actions to sabotage the Iranian nuclear program in cooperation with Israel, such as the Stuxnet virus that slowed down, but did not cripple, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Was last Sunday’s explosion at a Revolutionary Guards arms depot, which killed at least seventeen members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps including the architect of Iran’s missile program, General Hassan Moqaddam, an accident as Iran is claiming or was it an act of sabotage that may harbinger more such acts to come?

To what extent the Obama administration would provide support for an outright attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel or launch one itself is unclear, although it should be noted that the Obama administration has sold bunker-busting bombs to Israel. This is not to suggest that such an attack would be a good idea.  It would be almost impossible to take out all of Iran’s nuclear facilities and end its program entirely. Thus, the benefits of causing merely a further delay in Iran’s weapons development would have to be weighed against the potential costs. As United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said, “You’ve got to be careful of unintended consequences here. It could have a serious impact in the region, and it could have a serious impact on U.S. forces in the region.”

A naval blockade against Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to counter-attacks on U.S. naval forces by Iran, disruptions of key oil transport routes and the unleashing of Hezbollah rockets against Israel and other targets. Again, the costs may outweigh the benefits unless a truly crippling blow could be assured against Iran’s nuclear program.

However, a blockade to prevent the introduction of Iranian missiles or missile parts into Venezuela or other Latin American countries allied with Iran would send the kind of signal to Iran that President John F. Kennedy sent to the Soviet Union when he ordered a military “quarantine” of Cuba to prevent offensive weapons from being delivered to Cuba. If an overt military option is needed, this could be one that would show the U.S. means business and would be the easiest to carry out.

Perhaps Obama will surprise us and show the boldness he displayed in making the decision to take out Osama bin Laden. But his record to date on Iran is dismal. His pathetic attempt at his news conference to spin his record as placing us in “a much stronger position now than we were two or three years ago” is an insult to the intelligence of the American people.

MinnPost – Did Israel assassinate Iran’s ‘missile king’?.

By Scott Peterson | Published Tue, Nov 15 2011 8:40 am

Gantz: IDF will be forced to attack Gaza if ro… JPost – Defense.

    The IDF will be forced to launch an offensive if rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip continue to be launched into southern Israel, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday. He added that Israel must take the initiative.

In the next round of fighting, Gantz added, “we will need to shorten the length of fighting as much as possible,” noting that speed is dependent on quality intelligence and quick action.

The IDF chief also addressed preparations made ahead of the Palestinian UN statehood bid in September, warning that “September is no just a date but a process. The preparations are not behind us yet.”

The potential for disappointment over the failure of the statehood bid, Gantz added, means that there is still a danger violence could break out in the West Bank.

Gantz told Knesset committee that along the southern border with Egypt, the army has increased its preparations in light of increased terror threats coming from the Sinai Peninsula.

The IDF’s role along the western part of the Israeli-Egyptian border, Gantz said, has changed from being prepared to deal with infiltrators to now being prepared for terrorism.

Discussing the ongoing construction of a fence along the Egyptian border, the IDF chief told committee members that 30 contractors are employing 400 workers to accelerate construction of the fence. Seventy kilometers have already been built, and Gantz said he gave orders that the fence be completed by the end of next year.

Iran: Et Tu Duqu? | Iran | Intelligence | Secrets | Foreign Matters | Sky News Blogs.

The undercover war between Iran and several countries has been going on for decades. It appears to be intensifying.

There are many explanations for why there was an explosion which killed 17 people at a military base near Tehran at the weekend. The base houses missiles, including probably the Shahab 3, which can reach Israel.

The blast may have been caused by munitions exploding whilst being moved. Perhaps the liquid fuel used by the Shahab caught fire. Maybe a test launch went wrong. Or maybe the Israeli’s blew it up.

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe it was the Americans.

Whatever caused the explosion, it killed a Brigadier General in the Revolutionary Guard who was closely involved in Iran’s alleged attempt to aquire nuclear weapons.

There’s no proof of sabotage, but if it was, it fits into a long pattern of covert warfare.

Last year four Iranian nuclear scientists were killed or injured in what looked like professional assassination attempts. In one, two men on a motorcycle drew up along side a car carrying a scientist. A bomb was stuck to the driver’s car window at head height. Fereidoun Abbasi-Davani died as the motorcycle sped off through the Tehran traffic.

2010 also saw the worlds most famous computer attack. The Stuxnet virus wormed its way into the Natanz enrichment plant causing centrifuges to crash and delaying Iran’s attempts to stockpile enriched uranium.

Last month another virus appeared. The Duqu ‘cyber weapon’ was said to be trying to gather information from the Iranian nuclear sites in order to allow a future cyber attack similar to Stuxnet.

The Iranians admitted they had been targeted. What has not been acknowledged, nor proven, are the rumours that Israeli and British intelligence have been involved in ensuring that parts supplied to the Iran nuclear industry were faulty and designed to cause damage.

Last week saw another mysterious incident. Mohsen Rezai is a senior Iranian politician and possible contender for the Presidency. Rezai’s son, Ahmed, was found dead in a hotel room in Dubai. Local reporting mentioned a slit wrist and suicide, the Iranians said he died of an electric shock. Suicide is plausible and the son was not known to be an integral part of Iran’s nuclear drive.

Murder is also a possibility. The father is wanted by Interpol in connection with the bombing of a Jewish cultural centre in Argentina in 1994 which killed 85 people.

The Argentinian incident brings us to the fact that it’s not all one way traffic. Tehran denies any involvement but the attack in Argentina resulted in Interpol issuing Red Notices for 6 Iranians.

Iran has a long reach. It can activate cells all over the world, has strong connections in Gaza, and a proxy army in Lebanon in the shape of Hizbollah.

The Americans suffered hundreds of losses in Lebanon in the 1980’s and the hand of Iran was seen in almost all of them.

More recently the Americans alleged that the Iranian concocted a wild plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington DC. This week the Bahrain government says it has uncovered an Iranian led plan to murder some of its politicians. Iran says both claims are false.

This is an ongoing war of secrets and spies, secrets and lies. We won’t know all the secrets, and we won’t always know which are the lies. What is clear is that it is happening.

ANALYSIS-Israelis doubt world will stop Iran’s nuclear quest | Agricultural Commodities | Reuters.

* Israeli experts don’t share government confidence in sanctions

* Iran seen resisting international pressure on nuclear programme

* Experts doubt Israel can strike Iran alone without U.S. signal

By Dan Williams

TEL AVIV, Nov 14 (Reuters) – The latest report by U.N. inspectors has hardened suspicions that Iran is seeking nuclear arms capability, but Israeli experts have little confidence that international action will deny the Islamic Republic the means to make a bomb.

The pessimism sounded by academics, retired generals and statesmen on the consequences of last week’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) findings contrasted with how Israel and the United States responded in public — with pledges to use the report to rally support for stiffer sanctions against Iran.

Nor did the conference on Monday at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hear confident predictions that Israel or its allies would attack Iran.

“Can this (IAEA) report create a new basis for increasing the pressure on Iran? There is no good reason for being optimistic,” said Ephraim Kam, INSS deputy director and a former Israeli military intelligence colonel.

“Iran wants a bomb, or at least the capacity to make a bomb, and is willing to pay the price.”

Iran denied the IAEA allegations that it appeared to have worked on designing an atomic bomb and may still be conducting secret research. Tehran says its nuclear programme is peaceful, mainly to generate electricity to meet its growing energy needs.

Israel, widely thought to have the Middle East’s only atomic arsenal, views Iran as the greatest threat to its existence.

Several speakers agreed that Tehran was unlikely to be deterred by more sanctions, even if these materialise from a divided U.N. Security Council amid fears of Iran’s influence over oil markets at time of global economic turmoil.

Underlining the problems in getting a new U.N. resolution, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying on Monday that Moscow opposed tightening the screws on Iran.

“We consider the sanctions track on Iran to have been exhausted,” Lavrov said, according to Interfax news agency.

W. Pal Sidhu of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation told the Tel Aviv conference: “I think we have reached a limit in terms of sanctions,” adding that Iran had “a complete (nuclear) fuel cycle that is unlikely to be stopped only with outside technical sanctions”.

Sidhu said Iran’s distant, dispersed and defended facilities “may well be a bridge too far” for Israel’s armed forces and that the United States would be loath to launch its own preemptive strikes without Security Council approval.

Sidhu and Zvi Bar’el, a university lecturer and analyst for Israel’s liberal Haaretz daily, saw in the faceoff with Iran a chance for dialogue — perhaps on a long-proposed accord ridding the Middle East of weapons of mass destruction.

Israel and the United States have said a WMD-free zone would require full Iranian and Arab recognition of the Jewish state.

“STRANGLING” SANCTIONS?

Robert Silverman, political counselor at the U.S. embassy, said neither Washington nor Israel had renounced the military option but that “clearly what we’re talking about right now is ratcheting up sanctions and pressure through international engagement”.

In Jerusalem, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman sounded optimistic about the efficacy of punitive diplomacy.

“So far the international community has imposed sanctions on Iran only on 30 percent of areas where it could be possible,” he told an Israeli parliamentary panel, according to a spokesman. “Even if the Western world would impose sanctions without China and Russia, it would be enough to strangle Iran.”

Yet even such a Western expansion of sanctions might not be forthcoming without a “smoking gun” — incontrovertible proof of Iran building a bomb, such as an announcement from Tehran, a controlled atomic blast or the expulsion of U.N. inspectors.

Ephraim Asculai, a 40-year veteran of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and of the IAEA, said Iran might defy world scrutiny by pursuing “nuclear breakout” in secret or gathering all the components for a warhead without actually making it.

“The big problem is: would we know about it if Iran decided to break out and not tell anyone?” said Asculai, who estimated that the Iranians could have enough uranium for a nuclear device in a year, should they recalibrate their enrichment centrifuges.

While Israel welcomed the IAEA report, some of its officials groused at what they called the slow work of the Vienna-based agency, even as Iran forges on with sensitive nuclear work.

“In their cautious way they would probably send more inspectors to check and recheck,” Asculai said. “And meanwhile the Iranians would accomplish a lot.”

Kam said he believed Israel could manage a unilateral strike on “three or four” Iranian nuclear sites, but described this as unlikely given its reliance on its strategic U.S. ally.

President Barack Obama’s administration, trying to extract troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, is wary of starting another war in the Muslim world.

“If the Americans will not give Israel a green light, or at least what we call a ‘yellow light’, then Israel will not be able to attack,” Kam said.

Giora Eiland, a former Israeli general and national security adviser, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government had “a year, maybe two” to decide, given Iran’s nuclear progress.

“And if you don’t make a decision, you make a decision” to leave Iran to its course, Eiland said. “Two terrible choices. I believe the international community will fail to reach a solution on the Iranian case, so such a dilemma will be real.”

For now, those seeking to hobble, if not halt, Iran may have to make do with covert attacks such as cyberwarfare or sabotage.

“Will these things be accorded new legitimacy in light of the difficulty of nuclear diplomacy through negotiations?” said INSS arms control expert Emily Landau. (Editing by Alistair Lyon)

Iranian students form human shield near nuclear site amid fears of Israeli attack – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Protesters chant ‘Death to Israel’ and ‘Death to America’ in demonstration near Isfahan uranium conversion plant in central Iran.

By DPA

Hundreds of students on Tuesday formed a human chain around the uranium conversion plant in central Iran, in a demonstration staged by students to show that Iranians were ready to sacrifice their lives if the nuclear sites were attacked by Israel.

It followed a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that accused Iran of using its nuclear technology to seek atomic warheads. Israel also threatened to attack the Islamic state’s nuclear sites.

	The reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant is seen, just outside the southern city of Bushehr, Iran.
	Photo by: AP

After holding a noon prayer session in front of the plant’s main gate, students from Isfahan universities shouted “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” They vowed to resist in the event of an attack.

The plant in Isfahan and the neighboring uranium enrichment plant of Natanz are two probable targets of a possible Israeli air raid.

Other potential targets are the heavy reactor site of Arak, also in central Iran; a new enrichment site at Fordo south of the capital Tehran; the nuclear power plant in southern Bushehr and the medical reactor in western Tehran.

A senior lawmaker said the parliament would hold a special session next week to reconsider the country’s cooperation with the IAEA.

“The parliament will next week debate the various aspects of reviewing cooperation with the IAEA,” foreign policy committee chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi said.

Tehran dismissed the charges in the IAEA report as politically motivated and accused the UN nuclear watchdog of having turned into a political tool of its arch-foes Israel and the U.S.

Report: Iran in direct contact with Syrian opposition – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Daily Telegraph says Tehran most likely trying to ‘mould oppositions wider views on Israel, West rather than offering any real support’

Ynet

Iran, the closest ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, has been holding talks with members of Syria’s opposition for the past month, the Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday.

On Monday Jordan’s King Abdullah called on Assad to step down, and over the weekend the Arab League suspendedSyria in response to the killings of anti-regime protesters.

According to the British newspaper, Iranian officials met moderate Syrian opposition leader Haytham Manna, as well as other members of a group known as the National Coordinating Body for Democratic Change, or the National Coordinating Committee.

The group, the report said, is strongly opposed to foreign intervention in Syria, and is likely to be seen as more acceptable to the regime in Tehran than the largest group, the Syrian National Council, which has called for “international protection” for civilians.

Dead Syrian protestors (Photo: AFP) 

A Syrian opposition journalist was quoted by the Telegraph as saying that Iran “used Haytham Manna to prepare for an opposition conference.” However, he said the attempt failed as “no one trusted Iran.”

Syrian opposition leaders claimed early in the uprising that members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Al-Quds force were working with the Syrian army to put down demonstrations.

But according to the Telegraph, even Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has shown signs of “becoming frustrated with Mr Assad.” In August he called for the Syrian government to negotiate with the opposition, and by last month he was directly demanding that Assad implement reform.

The British daily said Iran “has a lot to lose” if Assad falls, as Damascus is home to the headquarters of Iran’s two main terrorist clients in the Arab world, Hamas and Hezbollah, and provides both a route for supplying them and diplomatic cover.

Manna did not reply to the Telegraph’s requests for comment, but according to the newspaper the Iranians were most likely trying to “mould the wider views on Israel and relations with the West of the opposition rather than offering any real support.”

Suspicion falls on Israel as new computer ‘supervirus’ hits Iran.

75 killed in Syria fighting – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Fierce clashes between troops, Assad foes; Arab League to send observers to Syria

Reuters

At least 40 Syrians were killed in fighting on Monday between forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and insurgents in a town near the border with Jordan, local activists said, in the first case of major armed resistance to Assad in the region.

They said troops backed by armor killed 20 people – army defectors, insurgents and civilians – in an assault on Khirbet Ghazaleh in the Hauran Plain, and in fighting that ensued near.

Elsewhere, at least 16 civilians and 19 members of the regime’s forces were killed in the Syrian town of Deraa, a previous focal point of anti-Assad resistance.

Meanwhile, Syria has called for an emergency Arab League summit in an apparent effort to forestall its suspension.

People were bound and shot in Homs (Photo: AFP)

Nabil Elaraby, the organization’s secretary general, said he had delivered the request to rulers of Arab League states and 15 members would have to approve in order to hold a summit, according to Egypt’s state news agency MENA.

500-strong fact-finding committee

The League’s suspension is a particularly bitter blow for Assad who has always seen himself as a champion of Arab unity. But adding to the injury, the Cairo-based League plans to meet Syrian dissident groups on Tuesday.

Even so, Elaraby said on Sunday it was too soon to consider recognizing the Syrian opposition as the country’s legitimate authority.

Elaraby met representatives of Arab civil society groups on Monday and agreed to send a 500-strong fact-finding committee, including military personnel, to Syria as part of efforts to end the crackdown on demonstrators and dissenters.

“Syria agreed to receive the committee,” said Ibrahim al-Zafarani, of the Arab Medical Union.

Report: Iran blames Israel for deadly blast – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Senior Iranian source says deadly explosion at military base outside Tehran that killed 17 people ‘part of covert war against Iran, led by Israel’

Ynet

For the first time since Saturday’s deadly blastin a military base outside Tehran that killed 17 people, Iranian sources say that Israel was behind the explosion, which also claimed the life of a senior Revolutionary Guards officer.

According to a report in the Guardian, a source with close links to the Iranian regime said Israel’s Mossad was involved in the blast outside Tehran, which rattled windows in Iran’s capital Saturday.

The source, who spoke to the Guardian on condition of anonymity and was identified as a former director of a state-run organization, was quoted as saying: “I believe that Saturday’s explosion was part of the covert war against Iran, led by Israel.”

The ex official said the mysterious explosion was similar to a blast in October 2010 at a Revolutionary Guards missile base located near the city of Khorramabad, the source said.

“I have information that both these incidents were the work of sabotage by agents of Israel, aimed at halting Iran’s missile program,” the former official was quoted as saying.

‘More bullets to come’

Earlier Monday, a Western intelligence source told Time Magazine that he estimates the Mossad was behind Saturday’s explosion.

“Don’t believe the Iranians that it was an accident,” the official said, referring to official accounts of the incident.

According to the Time report, the same anonymous source said that more sabotage is being planned to impede Iran’s ability to develop and deliver a nuclear weapon.

“There are more bullets in the magazine,” he said.

Saturday’s blast killed at least 17 people and wounded 16 others, some of them gravely. Earlier reports put the number of fatalities at 27, but a Revolutionary Guards spokesman said the numbers were inflated as result of a “fax error.”

A senior officer in Iran’s weapons industry was killed in the explosions, officials in the country said. The officer, identified as Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam, held a rank parallel to brigadier general in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, the Fars news agency said.