Not long after Washington accused Tehran of involvement in terrorism, following the thwarting of the Iran-backed plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., the IAEA’s unequivocal pronouncement, in its November 2011 report that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon increased apprehensions and concern in Tehran regarding a possible Western or Israeli strike against it. Alongside these fears, however, Iran also reacted by escalating its threats against the U.S. and Israel.
Encouraged by Russia and China, who following the publication of the report expressed their opposition to both a strike against Iran and further sanctions against it, Tehran is taking a two-pronged approach. It is threatening to carry out a forceful military strike against the U.S. and its allies if attacked, and even to destroy Israel, while at the same time engaging in diplomatic activity, relying on the support of Russia and China.[1] Though Iranian regime spokesmen stress their skepticism about the likelihood of a Western attack on Iran, Iran is nevertheless threatening to destroy Israel – both via its allies Hizbullah, Hamas, and Syria, and with a direct military strike against Israel’s nuclear facilities and population centers – while stressing what it calls Israel’s geographical, moral, and technological inferiority to Iran.
The following are several Iranian responses to the IAEA report:
For more from MEMRI on the Nuclear Program – Iran, visit http://www.memri.org/subject/en/121.htm.
Fear of a Military Strike
In response to the report, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Tehran would not back down from its position or abandon its nuclear program. He expressed hostility toward the U.S., saying that “the nations of the world feel revulsion whenever they hear the name of Obama… who wants to run the world but can’t even run a stable.”[2] However, at a November 3 convention of his supporters in Tehran, Ahmadinejad warned: “The West has mustered all its strength to strike [at Iran] and to finish the job, and it is clear as day that NATO is eager to attack Iran. Circumstances are unusual. The final confrontation is drawing nigh. This confrontation does not have to be military, it can be political. [But in any case,] we are approaching the culmination, and if we are careless, we may suffer a blow from which we will not recover in 500 years.”[3]
Threats against the U.S. and Israel
Threats By Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
On November 10, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, at an officers’ commencement ceremony at a military academy: “The enemies – especially America, its puppet regimes, and the Zionist regime – must know that the Iranian nation is not aggressive towards any country or nation. However, it will respond with absolute force to any aggression and even to threats, to the extent that the aggressors will explode from within. The mighty Iranian nation will not sit quietly while the materialistic straw powers, which are rotting from within, issue threats [against it]. Anyone who is thinking of attacking Iran should be prepared for powerful blows and iron fists from [its] army, from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC], and from the Basij – or, to put it briefly, from the Iranian nation.”[4]
Threats to Attack the U.S.
In a November 9 interview on Al-Alam TV, Iranian Armed Forces deputy chief of staff Masoud Jazayeri warned that if attacked, Iran’s reaction would not be restricted to the Middle East: “Iran holds many cards, which are not limited to the region, and they will be used when the time is right.” He added: “We hope that no war breaks out in any part of the world. But, unfortunately, the people of the world are faced with leaders such as the Americans, the English, and the Zionists, so war might break out at any moment.”[5]
It should be noted that threats to harm the U.S. and Britain on their own soil were made as early as July 2010, by Jazayeri and by the daily newspaper Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei. Kayhan stated: “They [i.e. the Americans] know that such a war [against Iran] will not stop at the boundaries of Iran and the Persian Gulf, but will surely spread to international waters and even to the hearts of Washington, London, and Tel Aviv.”[6] Jazayeri likewise threatened that “Iran’s strategic [capabilities] can reach [all the way] to the heart of the U.S.”[7] Majlis National Security Committee member Hossein Naqavi said: “In case of a military attack, Iran’s forces will fight with all their might against the enemies across the European and American soil.”[8]
A less specific threat was voiced by Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani. In a November 9 speech at Semnan in northern Iran, he warned that a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities would have “serious consequences” for the West, and added: “The Iranian nation is prepared for anything, and deems the wicked plots of the Zionist regime, the U.S., and the West as hasty and uncalculated.”[9] In another speech at Semnan, Larijani said: “In light of the audacious acts of the Westerners, the Iranian nation must take a step that will cause them sorrow. The U.S., the Zionist regime, and the Western countries must know that Iran will not change its course under any circumstances…” Larijani added that further anti-Iran sanctions would have no immediate effect and that Iran’s reaction to them would be “stinging.”[10]
A November 10 article in the conservative daily Resalat noted that Iran’s obfuscation of its missile capabilities, as well as the wide deployment of U.S. forces across the Gulf, give Iran an advantage over its enemies: “The [enemy’s] uncertainty regarding the range of the missiles manufactured by Iran, and the [wide] dispersal of U.S. bases and headquarters across the Middle East, which makes them easy to hit, are the [enemy’s] two main problems in any hypothetical confrontation between the U.S. and Israel [on the one hand] and Iran [on the other]… A handful of missiles fired randomly from the Persian Gulf coast towards the sea is likely, or even certain, to endanger the battleships, missile carriers, and submarines of the Americans and their allies… Moreover, in interviews, Iranian senior military figures have addressed the range of Iran’s shore-to-sea and sea-to-sea missiles, saying that the entire Gulf region and even [areas] beyond it are within the range of [these] missiles.”[11]
Threats to Destroy Israel
Even more blunt and direct were the threats to strike, or even destroy, Israel. Yadollah Javani, head of the IRGC political bureau, told the news agency Fars in an interview that IRGC troops were ready for martyrdom in defending Iran, and that if Israel attacked it, its days would be numbered. Hinting at Lebanon, he stressed that Iran was positioned as close as possible to Israel and would make Israel regret any attack.[12]
Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that an Israeli attack on Iran would be an act of suicide, since “it would put an end to the Zionist regime.”[13] Similar statements were made by the vice president of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Baqeri. Speaking in Moscow prior to the announcement that a Russia-Iran strategic cooperation agreement had been signed on November 11, 2011, he said: “If the Zionist regime permits itself such an act, its [continued] existence will be in doubt – not its legitimacy, but its actual existence.”[14]
In an interview on the Arabic-speaking Iranian Al-Alam TV, Iranian Armed Forces deputy chief of staff Massoud Jazayeri said: “Tel Aviv knows well that the smallest operation against Iran will endanger [Israel’s] existence. We are not the only ones who say this; everyone believes that a military operation against Iran by the Zionist regime will lead to Israel’s total annihilation from the pages of history.” He added: “If Iran’s nuclear facilities are attacked, the [nuclear] facilities of the occupying regime [i.e. Israel] in Dimona will be the easiest possible target for Iran’s military capabilities.[15] (See also MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 4268, “‘Occupy Wall Street’ – Reactions and Support in the Arab and Muslim World, Part VIII: Iranian Deputy Chief of Staff Brig.-Gen. Masoud Jazayeri Calls On Occupy Wall Street to Denounce U.S. Threats to Iran, Says: An Israeli Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Installations Would Lead to ‘Total Annihilation of That Entity’; Dimona Nuclear Plant Is ‘Easiest Target,'” November 10, 2011[16])
Majlis Supreme National Security Committee member Hossein Naqavi said: “Israel does not have the capacity to carry out a military attack against Iran, even if it wants to. But if it does this foolish deed, Iran’s soldiers will fight the Zionist soldiers in the streets of Tel Aviv, and will expel them from the land of Palestine.”[17] In contrast, publicist and Kayhan staff member Saadollah Zarei told Fars in an interview that although Israel did, in fact, have the military capacity to attack Iran, it would not do so for non-military reasons. He explained that a mere four Iranian rockets fired at Israel would create a million Israeli refugees. He added that even if Israel fired 100 rockets at Iran, it would cause only minimal damage, whereas “the almond shape [and size] of Israel” meant that its citizens would not have enough time to defend themselves or find shelter before the Iranians struck back. He also said that the Zionists knew that Iran could withstand an Israeli attack and that it would respond with an even fiercer attack.[18]
Iranian Website: All-Out War If Israel Attacks
On November 5, 2011, the Iranian website Bultan News, which appears to be close to Iran’s Intelligence Ministry, set out a scenario of all-out war in response to an attack by Israel. In the scenario, Iran would strike U.S. military bases in the region and fire long-range missiles at Israel, while Syria, Hizbullah, and Hamas would join in the attack. The article threatened that the Western economy, particularly Europe’s, would suffer serious losses if it supported Israel in such a war, whereas Russia and China would provide Iran with an umbrella of protection, resulting in a third world war. The following are the main points of the article:
Iran Will Strike U.S. Bases, Warships
“If the planes take off from Israel, the minute they are spotted [by Iran], the Zionist regime’s nuclear [facilities] and all of Israel will be targeted by a barrage of Iranian long-range missiles. In addition, there is no guarantee that these [Israeli] fighter planes will reach their predetermined targets. If U.S. fighter planes rush to Israel’s aid from Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, or from [countries] neighboring [Iran], all the bases [from which they take off] will become targets, considering Iran’s size and according to the statements of Iranian military chiefs. The tests of shore-to-sea missiles [fired] from a long distance at moving targets at sea prove [the validity of] this claim.”
Hamas, Hizbullah, Syria Will Join Iran in War
“The moment the Zionist regime attacks, Hamas, Hizbullah, and Syria will join Iran in the war against [this] regime (which, in the 2006 Lebanon War, suffered more than a million war refugees). [This time, its] citizens will throng to the airports to flee the country, because Israeli society is a society of immigrants who, thanks to their wealth, can easily return to Europe.”
Israel‘s Destruction
“Even if the Zionist regime has a nuclear bomb and is capable of using it, [this will not avail it], thanks to Iran’s geographical size and its ability to strike Israel with long-range missiles even from distant locations like Damghan [in northeast Iran]. Following this [Iranian] attack, the state of the Zionist regime will no longer exist on the world map.”
Closing the Strait of Hormuz Will Paralyze the World Economy
“The crucial factor in this war [will be] the continuation of the flow of energy sources to Europe and the West. If Europe makes a strategic error and joins the fight, [Iran’s] closing of the Strait of Hormuz will paralyze not only Europe but the entire world. Therefore, Europe and America’s support of the Zionist regime will come at a high price.”[19]
Russia, China Will Provide a Security Umbrella for Iran
“If the U.S. joins Israel in an attack on Iran, this will be a warning bell for Russia and China. The possibility of Russia and China remaining passive in this fight is remote from reality. If Moscow and Beijing enter the war, the possibility of even the smallest possible nuclear weapon being fired at Tehran will be nil.”
The Islamic States Will Rush to Help Iran
“Considering the [recent] wave of Islamic awakening, the Islamic countries of the region must also be added to this equation, in order to understand the depth of the panic the Zionist regime [will experience] in this fight.”
An Attack Will “Mark the Start of the Countdown to the End of the Cancerous Growth”
The article concluded by saying that “an attack against Iran will mark the start of the countdown to the end of the cancerous growth [i.e. Israel].”[20]
Internal Assessments Regarding a Possible Attack
Alongside those who issued bold threats, others dismissed the possibility of a Western attack on Iran, which they said would not surrender to Western pressure. Defense Minister Vahidi said that Israel was too small to attack Iran.[21] An article in the IRGC weekly Sobh-e Sadeq estimated that the West and Israel would not attack Iran because Iran “was capable of endangering and challenging the interests of the West and the Zionist regime anywhere in the world… Any attack on Iran will bring an end, once and for all, to the [U.S.] hegemony, bring about the collapse of the U.S., and finally annihilate Israel.” The article concluded: “If only the West and the Zionists had already committed this foolish act!”[22]
The daily Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei, reaffirmed Iran’s stance vis-à-vis the U.S., claiming that Tehran would not surrender to its pressure to pass up the historical opportunity of the “Islamic awakening” of the Arab Spring, to leave intact the corrupt Al-Sa’ud regime in Saudi Arabia and OPEC’s control of oil flow to the West, and to accept the illegitimate existence of Israel.[23]
The daily Jomhour-e Eslami claimed that the one to surrender would be Washington, not Tehran. It added that the IAEA report was politically biased, was no more than a guess based on satellite images and assessments by Western spy agencies, and presented no clear proof that Iran was, in fact, aspiring to produce a nuclear bomb.[24]
In contrast, the Iranian website Diplomacy claimed that apprehensions over the possibility of a strike by the West were once again noticeable in Iran’s cities, and, addressing Russia and China, added that they would have to redouble their efforts in order to prevent either an attack or harsher sanctions against Iran.[25] The moderate-conservative daily Ebtekar warned that the Western strikes on Libya and Iraq were proof that Iran could not depend on Moscow’s and Beijing’s protection: “We must not rely on countries like China and Russia. Every time we hear that these countries oppose an attack against some country, we are disgusted. They opposed the attack on Iraq [in 2003] and on Libya [in 2011], but when the time came for action, they danced to the drums of the U.S. and the West.”[26]
Iran’s Allies Stand With It in Light of Possible Attack
Immediately following the release of the IAEA report, Palestinian Islamic Jihad secretary-general Ramadan ‘Abdallah Shalah and Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mash’al arrived in Tehran for consultation and coordination.[27]
On November 9, 2011, the Iranian news agency Fars published an exclusive report noting that 30,000 Syrian and Palestinian martyrdom seekers residing in Syria had informed the Syrian authorities that they were prepared to be martyred in Palestine the moment the Syrian regime deemed it appropriate. Apparently, this report signals a threat by the Iranian regime in response to the possibility of a Western military strike against Iran or Syria.[28]
Similarly, the website Abna, which is identified with the Iran-based Shi’ite organization World Assembly of Ahl Al-Bayt, published an exclusive report stating that a group of Shi’ites from Bahrain had declared themselves the soldiers of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and said that they were prepared to defend Iran in the event of an attack.[29]
In Egypt, Sheikh ‘Abd Al-Hamid Al-Atrash, former head of the Al-Azhar Fatwa Committee, issued a fatwa stating that it was considered a sin and a crime against Islam for Arab and Islamic countries to collaborate with the U.S. against Iran, as they would be abetting an enemy that does not believe in Allah and His Messenger in its fight against an Islamic country. The fatwa stated that it is the duty of the other Arab and Islamic states to annihilate these Arab and Islamic collaborators.[30]
Also, Muhammad Alaa Eddin Abu Al-‘Azayem, leader of the Egyptian Sufi Al-‘Azmeyya order, said that he would issue a fatwa calling for jihad against Israel. He added that his order would fight shoulder to shoulder with Iran if Israel attacked it.[31]
*A. Savyon is Director of the Iranian Media Project; Y. Mansharof is a Research Fellow at MEMRI.
Endnotes:
[1] During his visit November 8-10, 2011 visit to Russia, Ali Baqeri, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, discussed the IAEA report with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and with the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev. IRNA, IRIB (Iran), November 9, 2011. A few days later, it was reported that Iran and Russia had signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Press TV (Iran), November 11, 2011.
[2] Snn.ir, November 8, 2011.
[3] Dolatema.com, November 3, 2011.
[4] Leader.ir, November 10, 2011. Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said at a defense convention that “any bold and hostile move against Iran’s territorial sovereignty will be met with a crushing and swift response by Iran’s armed forces.” Javan (Iran), November 8, 2011.
[5] Al-Alam (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[6] Kayhan (Iran), July 28, 2010.
[7] Fars (Iran), July 26, 2010.
[8] Javan (Iran), November 11, 2011.
[9] Press TV (Iran), November 10, 2011.
[10] Mehr (Iran), November 10, 2011.
[11] Resalat (Iran), November 10, 2011.
[12] Fars (Iran), August 11, 2011. He also said accused the U.S. of acts of terror, and reiterated calls to bring its leaders to trial, stating that 99 percent of Americans hated the administration.
[13] Yjc.ir, November 13, 2011.
[14] Reuters, November 10, 2011.
[15] Al-Alam TV (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[17] Javan (Iran), November 8, 2011.
[18] Fars (Iran), November 5, 2011.
[19] It should be noted that threats to paralyze the Western economy have been a central motif in statements by Iranian spokesmen in recent years.
[20] Bultannews.com (Iran), November 5, 2011.
[21] Yjc.ir, November 13, 2011.
[22] Sobh-e Sadeq (Iran), November 14, 2011.
[23] Kayhan (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[24] Jomhour-e Eslami (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[25] Irdiplomacy.ir, November 5, 2011.
[26] Ebtekar (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[27] Tehran Times (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[28] Fars (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[29] Abna (Iran), November 9, 2011.
[30] Al-Gumhouriyya (Egypt), November 10, 2011.
[31] Elfagr.org (Egypt), November 8, 2011.
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