WarSclerotic

Bahrain: Alleged terror cell had high Iran links – Yahoo! News.

Gaza rocket lands near Sderot; no injuries – Israel News, Ynetnews.

IDF official says Israel can topple Hamas regime, ‘conquer all of Strip’ if necessary

Shmulik Hadad

Some three weeks after a new round of fighting with Palestinian terrorists in Gaza subsided, a Qassam rocket fired from the northern Strip exploded Sunday evening in an open area within the limits of the Sha’ar Hanegev Regional Council. There were no immediate reports of injury or damage.

The ‘Color-red’ alert system was sounded in Sderot and the surrounding area.

Prior to the rocket attack, a senior IDF official told AP Sunday that Israel is ready and able to topple Gaza’s Hamasgovernment, though it has no immediate plans to do so.

The official also said Gaza terrorists have steadily built up an already formidable arsenal, in part with weapons smuggled out of Libya, and now have rockets capable of striking Tel Aviv, Israel’s cultural and business hub.

“If we have to conquer the whole Gaza Strip, we’ll do it,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity under Israeli military guidelines. Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 after a 38-year military occupation.

Israel’s volatile front with Gaza, a crowded seaside strip along Israel’s southwest flank, has been largely quiet since an Israeli military offensivethree years ago. The operation, launched in response to heavy barrages of rocket fire, killed some 1,400 people and inflicted heavy damage on Hamas.

But since then, Hamas has restocked its arsenal, and fighting has sporadically flared up, most recently late last month when one Israeli and 10 Gaza terrorists were killed over several days of violence.

Hamas officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Hamas, along with smaller terror groups, now possess sophisticated anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, the official said. He said they also have rockets capable of reaching the northern suburbs of Tel Aviv, roughly 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Gaza, meaning that Israel’s main population center is now within range.

The official said many arms have flooded into Gaza in the wake of the Libyan revolution, with looted weapons making their way through Egypt’s Sinai peninsula and into Gaza through the border tunnels. He said the weapons shipping is taking place despite improved efforts by Egypt’s new government to stop the smuggling.

He said the weapons have not changed militants’ abilities, since armed groups already possessed these arms. But he said the amount of weapons has grown substantially.

One beneficiary, he said, is Islamic Jihad, a smaller armed group that sometimes rivals Hamas. Islamic Jihadwas responsible for most of the latest wave of fighting against Israel.

“Hamas has more of everything and good stuff, but the Jihad … got stronger by far, not stronger than Hamas, but it’s a very strong organization now,” he said.

Abu Ahmad, spokesman for Islamic Jihad’s military wing, confirmed his group had beefed up its capabilities, including the new use of mobile rocket launchers. But he said there is still “a big difference between our humble arsenal and the occupation army’s weapons.”

“What I can say here is that the occupation army commanders and soldiers will find themselves in trouble if they commit any folly against Gaza,” he said. “We have many new things that will be used if there is a new Zionist escalation.”

For the past three years, Israel has generally been in a tit-for-tat cycle against terrorists, responding to rocket fire with pinpoint strikes against the attackers. Israel holds Hamas, which seized control of Gaza in 2007, for all attacks that emanate from the territory.

The official cited several scenarios that could trigger a heavier Israeli response against Hamas, including a deadly rocket attack on a school or school bus, a kidnapping of an Israeli soldier or the introduction of a new strategic weapon.

He warned, however, that a broad operation would carry a heavy price that would likely include military and civilian casualties both on the Israeli and Palestinian sides. “If you want a bigger achievement, then you pay a bigger price,” he said.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 13, 2011, 9:58 PM (GMT+02:00)

Dubai Hotel

Shortly after two big explosions rocked Iranian Revolutionary Guards bases near Tehran Saturday, Nov. 12,  Ahmed Rezaie, 31, was found dead in Dubai’s Gloria Hotel. He was the the son of a high-ranking Iranian official, Mohsen Rezaie, secretary of the powerful Expediency Council and former IRGC commander. The cause of his death strongly resembled the method by  which Hamas’ contact man with Tehran Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was slain on Jan. 19, 2010 in another Dubai hotel. The local authorities laid that death at the door of Israel’s Mossad. For instance, Rezaie’s body showed no signs of violence. He appeared have been injected with the Suxamethonium muscle relaxant and then smothered with a pillow.
debkafile‘s intelligence sources report that Ahmed Rezaie was physically fit. He did not take drugs or medication. The Iranian news agency reported that he died in suspicious circumstances at a Dubai hotel withough comment. An Expediency Council spokesman said the case was scrutiny and more information would be released soon.
Our Iranian sources add that Ahmad Rezaie left for the United States in 1998 when his father was at the highest point of his career. There, he gave interviews to American and Western media, including the Voice of Israel’s Farsee station, in which he openly criticized Iran’s rulers especially Supreme Ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

At one point he contacted Israelis with an offer to help run down what happened to the Israeli navigator Ron Arad, who has been missing since 1986 when his plane went down over Lebanon and he was captured by Shiite groups and believed handed over to Tehran. Rezaie offered to travel to Dubai and use his contacts in the Expediency Council to discover what happened to the Israeli navigator in return for a handsome down-payment. His Israeli contacts eventually turn him down.

Over the years, the Supreme Ruler leaned hard on Ahmad’s father to bring his son home, promising he would not be harmed. In 2005, the young Rezaie returned to Tehran. He lived quietly, but was kept under surveillance as a suspected American spy. During that time, he married four times, once to a South Korean woman. Because of his frequent trips overseas on business, the authorities in Tehran began to use him as an informal pipeline for passing information to the West.

He then took up residence in Dubai, with frequent side trips to the Iranian capital.

debkafile‘s intelligence sources take into account the possiblity that he was murdered on the direct orders of Ayatollah Khamenei – partly as a warning to his father to cool his close ties with former president-turned opposition figure Hashem Rafsanjani.
Rafsanjani took up the cudgels against the regime at the time of the 2009 anti-regime riots which were sparked by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s rigged reelection as president.

The untimely death would also have aimied to caution Rafsanjani himself to continue to keep his head down although inthe last two years, Khamenei has managed to strip of honors, high office and political clout.

It would not be the first time that a political enemy of the Supreme Ruler dies in suspicious circumstances, but in most other cases, the deaths occurred in Iran and faked to look like accidents.

via The Associated Press: Iran: Dead Guard commander was missile expert.

(A “happy” obituary… JW )

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — A Revolutionary Guard commander killed in an explosion at an ammunition depot west of Tehran was a key figure in Iran’s missile program, the elite military force said in a statement Sunday.

Gen. Hasan Moghaddam was killed together with 16 other Guard members Saturday at a military site outside Bidganeh village, 25 miles (40 kilometers) southwest of Tehran. The Guard said the accidental explosion occurred while military personnel were transporting munitions.

The Guard praised Moghaddam, saying the military force will not forget his “effective role in the development of the country’s defense … and his efforts in launching and organizing the Guard’s artillery and missile units,” the semiofficial Fars news agency quoted the statement as saying Sunday.

The Revolutionary Guard is a key Iranian military force closely tied to the country’s powerful clerics.

Moghaddam headed a “self-sufficiency” unit of the Guard’s armaments section.

Iranian officials did not explain why Moghaddam was at the site at the time of the explosion.

Saeed Qasemi, a Guard commander, said Iran owes its missile program to Moghaddam.

“A major part of (our) progress in the field of missile capability and artillery was due to round-the-clock efforts by martyr Moghaddam,” Qasemi told the conservative news website rajanews.com.

Another Guard commander, Gen. Mostafa Izadi, called Moghaddam a “founder of the Guard’s surface-to-surface missile systems.”

An exiled Iranian dissident group, the Mujahedin-e Khalq or MEK, has claimed that the blast hit a missile base run by the Revolutionary guard rather than an ammunition depot.

Lawmaker Parviz Soroori was sure the blast was accidental.

“No sabotage was involved in this incident. It has nothing to do with politics,” Soroori was quoted as saying by the parliament’s website, icana.ir.

Qasemi said Moghaddam was one of a few Guard commanders favored by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“The exalted leader had a special interest in him,” he said.

Iran’s arsenal boasts missiles with a range of about 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers) that were designed for Israel and U.S. targets. The missile capability, along with Iran’s nuclear program, are among the reasons why Israel considers Iran its most dangerous enemy.

The Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s most powerful military force, is in charge of Iran’s missile program.

Iran’s chief Guard commander, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, and other top officials visited Moghaddam’s family Sunday to offer condolences. Moghaddam’s body will be buried Monday.

Netanyahu: Iran is closer to a nuclear bomb than people think – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Following publication of damning IAEA report, PM says document by UN’s nuclear watchdog does not represent reality as it only includes ‘provable’ facts.

By Barak Ravid

Iran is closer to assembling a nuclear bomb than “people think,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday, following a the publication of a report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Last week, the hotly anticipated document said Iran appeared to have worked on designing an atomic bomb and that secret research may continue. It was the most detailed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report to date on the issue.

	Netanyahu at a session of the Knesset.
	Photo by: AP

Based on what the agency called “credible” information, the IAEA repot indicated that Iran had built a large explosives vessel there to conduct hydrodynamic experiments, which are “strong indicators of possible weapon development.”

Israel has used the report to convince the international community to impose tougher sanctions on the Islamic Republic, a move opposed by countries such as China and Russia.

Commenting on the Iranian nuclear program on Sunday, Netanyahu said that “international [diplomatic] efforts did not prevent Iran from advancing toward a nuclear bomb, and it may get there sooner than people think.”

“The IAEA report includes only the evidence provable at a court of law, but the reality is that there are many more things that we are seeing beyond what the report states,” Netanyahu added.

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Iran must respond soon to a report by the UN atomic agency alleging that it is working secretly on developing a nuclear weapon, saying that “Iran has a long history of deception and denial regarding its nuclear program and in the coming days we expect Iran to answer the serious questions raised by this report.”

“The U.S. will continue to consult closely with our allies on the next steps we can take to increase pressure on Iran,” Clinton said.

Egypt arrests suspect believed linked to E… JPost – Middle East.

    Egyptian authorities arrested a top member of an Islamist terror group suspected of involvement in pipeline bombings that have disrupted gas supplies to Israel and Jordan, Egyptian state media reported on Sunday.

The Palestinian news agency Ma’an reported that the detainee, Mohammed al-Teehi, was also being investigated for an August terror attack in southern Israel that killed eight people.

Teehi, of the armed Islamist group Al-Takfir Wa Al-Hijra (Excommunication and Exodus), was arrested in the northern coastal city of El-Arish, Egypt’s news agency MENA reported.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported in September that an Israeli army investigation had revealed the attack, near the southern city of Eilat, had been planned by Egyptians operating in Sinai.

The Sinai gas pipeline was attacked on Thursday for the seventh time this year. Egyptian authorities have struggled to maintain full control over the peninsula, especially since state security was disrupted by the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in February.

Authorities see Teehi as the mastermind behind attacks on police stations in the city and he has topped a government “wanted” list, MENA said. Some residents of al-Arish confirmed that he belongs to a “well-known religious current” but said he cannot move because of a car accident that fractured his pelvis.

Egyptian officials say limits on troop numbers in Sinai under a 1979 peace treaty with Israel make it harder to secure the area, which local Bedouin say has been neglected for decades. Some have taken to smuggling and gun-running to scrape a living.

Egypt’s 20-year gas deal with Israel, signed in the Mubarak era, is unpopular with the Egyptian public, and critics argue that the Jewish state was not paying enough for the gas.
Previous explosions have closed the pipeline, run by Gasco, Egypt’s gas transport company, a subsidiary of the national gas company EGAS, for weeks.

The armed forces launched a security sweep in August to root out suspected Islamist gangs and, according to security sources at the time, captured four Islamist militants as they prepared to blow up the pipeline in El-Arish.

Iran Guards: Officer killed in blast a ‘martyr’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Senior Revolutionary Guards member says Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam’s work helped Hezbollah, Hamas ‘triumph over Israel’ in wars

Dudi Cohen

A day after a mysterious explosion killed at least 17 people at an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps base near Tehran, Iranian media outlets on Sunday published photos of a senior officer who was killed in the blast.

In an obituary published by the Revolutionary Guards, Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam, whose rank was equivalent to that of a brigadier general, is described as a “shahid (martyr)” and one of the key figures in Iran’s missile program. The Guards vowed to continue in Moqaddam’s “path.”

The funeral of Moqaddam and the other 16 people killed in the blast is scheduled for Monday morning.

Moqaddam, according to the obituary, was one of the “cornerstones” of the artillery and missile units at the Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq war. “We will continue in his path and in the paths of the rest of the shahids – a path of courage, advancement and growing deterrence of the regime and the Islamic homeland,” the obituary read.

The officer reportedly served as a researcher at a Tehran university and headed the “Jihad Self-Reliance” unit, mostly tasked with developing arms and missiles.

Senior Guards member Mustafa Izadi published an article saying Moqaddam’s research helped the terror groups fight Israel. “Undoubtedly, the blessed ideas of this shahid assisted in the victories of Hezbollah in the 33-day war (Second Lebanon War) and Hamas in the 22-day war (Operation Cast Lead in Gaza),” Izadi wrote. He was apparently referring to Moqaddam’s contribution to the development of short-range missiles, which Iran transfers to the terror groups.

According to reports based on information provided by Iranian opposition groups, the base in which the blast occurred stores Shahab-3 as well as surface-to-surface missiles.

The explosion on Saturday rocked the base at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard on the western outskirts of Tehran, some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the city, according to media reports.

Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran against internal and external threats, the Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic’s missile program, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

Despite four sets of UN Security Council sanctions, Iran has refused to abandon its nuclear and missile programs.

Saturday’s blast came amid a spike in international condemnation of Iran following the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to fit inside its medium-range missiles.

Israeli officials in past weeks have warned Iran of the possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

US blogger Richard Silverstein said Saturday that Israel was the mastermind behind the blast.

In his blog, Tikun Olam, Silverstein quotes an Israeli expert as saying that the Mossad was responsible for the explosion, in collaboration with the Iranian militant opposition group Mojahedin-e-Khalq.

US military experts in late October suggested in Congress that the United States organized covert operations to assassinate the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran admits to facing attack by new ‘Duqu’ computer virus – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Head of Iranian civil defense says organizations, corporations supplied with software to help them defend themselves from new virus; earlier this year Tehran admitted the Stuxnet computer worm targeted its nuclear program.

By Yossi Melman

For the first time, Iran admitted on Sunday that it had been on the receiving end of a new cyber attack by the Duqu computer virus that allegedly targeted computers of firms in the Islamic Republic.

Speaking with the official IRNA news agency, head of Iranian civil defense Brigadier General Gholamreza Jalali said that Tehran had developed a software to thwart attacks by the Duqu virus, adding that the “software to control the [Duqu] virus has been developed and made available to organizations and corporations” in Iran.

	A worker in the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Iran.
	Photo by: AP

“The elimination [process] was carried out and the organizations penetrated by the virus are under control … The cyber defense unit works day and night to combat cyber attacks and spy [computer] virus,” he added.

Earlier this year, Iranian officials confirmed that the another cyber attack, the Stuxnet virus, hit staff computers at the Bushehr nuclear plant but said it had not affected major systems.

Reports have also surfaced that the computer worm was meant to sabotage the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz – where the centrifuge operational capacity has halved over the past year.

Security experts say the computer worm may have been a state-sponsored attack on Iran’s nuclear program and may have originated in the United States or Israel.

Last month, however, security software firm Symantec indicated that a new virus was alerted by a research lab with international connections to a malicious code that “appeared to be very similar to Stuxnet.” It was named Duqu because it creates files with “DQ” in the prefix.

“Parts of Duqu are nearly identical to Stuxnet, but with a completely different purpose,” Symantec said. “Duqu is essentially the precursor to a future Stuxnet-like attack.”

Elder of Ziyon.

Crazed anti-Israel nutcase blogger Richard Silverstein has an exclusive!

The face of the Israeli terror machine may have reared its ugly head again in the world. This time it may have produced yet another massive act of sabotage (Hebrew original) at an IRG missile base west of Teheran. …

Ynet raises the possibility that it was a deliberate act of sabotage on not just a missile base, but an intelligence facility. Teheran Bureau says the IRG is telling the Iranian media that the incident was not an act of terror, but purely an industrial accident. An Iranian who worked at the base for several months and was interviewed by Iranian media discounted the likelihood of an act of sabotage since security at the base was extremely strict.

However, an Israeli source with extensive senior political and military experience provides an exclusive report that it was the work of the Mossad in collaboration with the MEK.

…[M]y source has never been wrong so far in the reports he’s offered.

Silverstein is so anxious to blame Israel for everything that he was once taken in by an obvious Ha’aretz Purim joke article claiming that advertising messages would be projected onto the Kotel. He is known as a thin-skinned, sloppy, and unreliable blogger.

Nevertheless, YNet is now headlining an article with Silverstein’s unsourced allegations!

And from what I hear, Israel’s Army Radio mentioned it as well.

Not to mention Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad mouthpiece Palestine Today.

Now, from the beginning of this story, everyone recognized that it was entirely possible that Israel or other Western intelligence agencies were behind this explosion. I’m hardly an expert and I noted that as well.

But one of the features of espionage is plausible deniability.

Last week, on numerous occasions, Iran threatened to send hundreds of missiles to Israeli targets if it was attacked, or even if it was threatened with an attack.

Silverstein names his blog “Tikun Olam” in a bizarre attempt to pretend that somehow his unhinged and hateful postings help “repair the world.” (By the way, along with most Jews who know nothing about Judaism, Silverstein’s concept of “tikkun olam” is far from what the phrase actually means.)

If Iran becomes convinced that Israel has just attacked its missile facility, it will consider an avalanche of missiles aimed at Israel to be a response, not an attack.

So Silverstein, hiding his hate for Israel behind a misunderstood concept  of “repairing the world,” has no problem with doing his part to help bring war. And if quoting some random Israeli who makes him feel important by even talking to him is the method to do that, then, no problem. (Every real reporter would require corroboration from a second source before publishing something this incendiary.)

Since Silverstein’s entire blogging career has always been more about boosting his immense-but-fragile ego and fueling his intense hate of Israel than anything remotely positive, Silverstein can be counted upon as not giving a damn if he just helped edge the region – and possibly the world – towards war.

That’s the “tikun olam” of fools.

Is an Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Program a Bad Idea? – Jeffrey Goldberg – International – The Atlantic.

Yes, an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is a bad idea. So is the idea of an Iran with nuclear weapons. Hence, a dilemma.

James Fallows has a characteristically thoughtful post up about the latest Iran brouhaha, and comes to the conclusion (actually, he came to the conclusion quite some time ago) that bombing Iranian nuclear sites — either by America, Israel, or some combination of states to be named later — is a bad idea. We don’t really disagree on this basic point. I think it would be reckless for either Israel or America to try to preempt by force the Iranian nuclear program now (as I wrote in this column, it would be smart to continue, and intensify, the sabotage programs that have already apparently slowed-down the Iranians, and tightening sanctions on Iranian banks, in particular, might have some impact). I tend to think now that an Israeli strike would be very ineffective and dangerous no matter what point in the future it is launched, in part because Israel’s capabilities are so much more limited than America’s.

As for the U.S., I believe two things: One, that President Obama is serious and sincere when he says that all options remain on the table and that a nuclear Iran is “unacceptable” to him, and two, it is a good thing that Obama is sincere, because I don’t have much faith in the idea that the U.S. could safely contain a nuclear Iran, as some people have argued. President Obama rightfully fears a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, which is what would happen once Iran goes nuclear, and a nuclear arms race in the world’s most volatile region could lead to a nuclear exchange, even an inadvertent nuclear exchange.

I’ve been raising the issue of Obama’s record of seriousness on counter-terrorism and nuclear nonproliferation issues (to the chagrin of some critics to my right) because I believe Iran should take him seriously on this particular matter, and I also believe Israel should take him seriously. There are many advocates in Israel of a preemptive strike against Iran who do not believe that Obama would ever use force to stop its nuclearization. These are the sort of people who are pushing hardest for a unilateral Israeli strike, soon. I think they are wrong. I believe, in part based on reporting that appears in this article, that Obama understands the threat posed by Iran, and would contemplate military action against Iran.

Jim writes:

You know, and I know, that promising to kill Osama Bin Laden, and doing it, is different from telling the Iranians that “all options” are under consideration — and going ahead and “doing it” with an attack. Barack Obama knows that better than anyone else. But if the best way to avoid having to launch an attack, and deterring the Israeli government from launching one, is by really, truly convincing the Iranians that he might very well do it, then any bluster for dramatic effect, and to leave doubt in their mind, is fine with me. (In keeping with Goldberg’s very sensible point #2.) As long as he doesn’t fool himself, or back himself in a “manhood” / “losing face” corner of having to do something he realizes will only compound longer term problems.

He goes on to write:

Do I worry that in the high councils in Teheran someone would say at the crucial moment: “Oh, Obama is just bluffing. We read some blogger in the Atlantic saying that he should. So let’s just call his bluff.” ? No. I do not worry about that.

Jim underestimates the power of Atlantic bloggery, but I’ll cede him this point. I believe our only disagreement comes in forecasting what a Middle East with a nuclear Iran might look like, and what it would mean for the U.S. My sense is that Jim thinks this is something America and its allies could handle, and he might be right. But I fear his (appropriate) loathing of preemption has led him to posit a best-case scenario for what might happen if Iran goes nuclear. As for me, well, I don’t know which one is worse: A preemptive attack, or a nuclear Iran. An attack would be disastrous on many levels, but I also think that a nuclear Iran would not be fully containable.

In any case, for those of you who doubt Israeli seriousness about the Iran threat, please look at Ehud Barak’s recent statements on the subject. Last year, when I wrote my cover story on the subject, I sensed that Barak was more ambivalent than Netanyahu about the likelihood of Israeli preemptive success. Now, he seems to be readying the Israeli public for a decision he may already have made:

Barak dismissed concerns raised in Israel in recent days that military action against Iran could lead to heavy casualties in an Iranian counterstrike or in missile attacks by the Iranian-backed militant groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

“Let’s assume we get to war against our will,” Barak said. “There will not be 100,000 dead, not 10,000 dead and not 1,000 dead. And Israel will not be destroyed. There’s no way today to prevent certain damage. It’s not pleasant on the home front . . . [but] if everyone just goes into their homes, there will not be 500 dead, either. And I don’t belittle a single fatality.”

He continued: “If there is no alternative, and in certain stages there will be no choice, and Israel will have to protect its vital interests, then there will also be missiles on the home front. But we are preparing for this, and there’s no real danger either to Israel’s existence or to its ability to withstand [attacks] . . . . There’s no existential threat to Israel from the types of rockets and missiles held by Iran and Hezbollah.”