WarSclerotic

How will Israel attack Iran? – Israel News, Ynetnews.

(I can promise you one thing.  Whatever is written here is NOT how Israel will attack, if it attacks. = JW)

Analysts examine ways Israel could carry out strike against Iran, issue warning: Losing tactical edge of initial sneak attack will make it hard to keep up precision strikes

Reuters

Should the Israelis attack Iran, they would probably focus strikes on select nuclear facilities while trying to avoid killing civilians en masse or crippling the oil sector.

Past operations by Israel, such as the 1981 bombing of Iraq’s Osirak atomic reactor and a similar strike against Syria in 2007, suggest a strategy of one-off pinpoint raids, due both to military limitations and a desire to avoid wider war.

“It (Israel) has the capability to get there, and it has the capability to do serious damage to the Iranian nuclear program,” said Sam Gardiner, a retired US air force colonel who has run war games for various Washington agencies and academic forums.

Israeli subs – will attack come by sea? (Photo: AFP) 

Israel remains publicly committed to the US-led big power strategy of diplomacy and punitive sanctions to get the Iranians to curb their uranium enrichment and ensure it is for peaceful purposes only.

But the specter of unilateral Israeli strikes resurfaced with the publication on Tuesday of charges by UN inspectors of a possible military dimension to Iran’s nuclear project.

Israel lacks heavy long-range air force bombers, but its advanced F-15 and F-16 warplanes could hit sites in western Iran and further inland with air-to-air refueling and by using stealth technology to overfly hostile Arab nations.

Israel attacked Iraq and Syria before their alleged nuclear weapons projects had yielded fissile material that could end up as toxic debris. Similarly, analysts say, it would try to avoid an Iranian death toll that would fuel public calls for revenge.

Control escalation

A 2009 simulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington theorized that Israel, intent on halting or hobbling what the West suspects is Tehran’s covert quest for the means to make atomic weaponry, would launch a sneak pre-emptive attack on half-a-dozen nuclear sites in Iran.

Israeli commandos – will they be heading ot Iran? (Photo: IDF Spokeman) 

Israel would not want to risk drawing in Iranian allies like Hezbollah, Hamas or Syria, especially with political upheaval shaking US-aligned Gulf Arabs and Egypt. Israel’s armed forces are geared for brief border wars, not prolonged open conflict.

Terrific opportunity

“Israel would most likely begin efforts to control escalation immediately after the strike,” said Gardiner, who posits Iranian retaliation could compel the United States – perhaps by Israeli design – to weigh in with its superior arms.

Facing recrimination from allies like the United States, Israel might argue the strike “created a terrific opportunity for the West to pressure Iran, weaken it, and possibly even undermine the regime”, said the Brookings simulation summary.

Aircraft are not the only means at Israel’s disposal.

It could also launch ballistic Jericho missiles with conventional warheads at Iran, according to a 2009 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Israel’s three German-built Dolphin submarines are believed to be capable of carrying conventional and nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. They would have to transit through Egypt’s Suez Canal – as one did in 2009 – to reach the Gulf.

Elite foot soldiers might be deployed to spot targets and possibly launch covert attacks. Far-flying drones could assist in surveillance and possibly drop bombs of their own.

UAV’s will gather intelligence (Photo: AFP) 

Israel has also been developing “cyber warfare” capabilities and could use this together with other sabotage by Mossad spies on the ground.

Blowback

Israel would be loath to hit Iranian energy assets, like oil production and shipping facilities. This could stoke a spike in oil prices, turning world opinion against Israel while alienating the Iranian dissident movement.

The same would follow a large Iranian death toll, though civilian infrastructure might not be spared.

Gardiner said the Israelis, like the US air force during the Serbia campaign of 1999, might fry Iran’s electricity grids by dropping carbon fibers on its exposed power lines.

“Israel knows that an attack on Iran, no matter how much evidence to show that Iran is on the cusp of acquiring nuclear weapons that could kill large numbers of Israelis if it chooses, would cause an international outcry,” said Richard Kemp, a retired British army colonel who has studied Israeli doctrines.

“It is very much in Israel’s interest to take every possible precaution to make it as precise and effective as possible (and) do everything to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties.”

But escalation might be impossible to avoid.

Losing tactical edge

Should Iran retaliate with Shehab missile launches against Tel Aviv, for example, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would find it hard not to strike back. It would need outside assurances that the Shehab salvoes would stop – say, through a US military enlistment against Iran, or a truce.

After losing the tactical edge of the initial sneak attack, Israeli forces would find it hard to keep up precision strikes.

Iran would be on alert for hostile warplanes, submarines and commandos. Iraq, Turkey or Saudi Arabia – countries which a 2006 study by the Massachusetts Institutes of Technology envisaged Israeli warplanes overflying en route to Iran – would shut down their air space.

The Israeli public would chafe at losing troops and living in bomb shelters. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in rare remarks on such a sensitive subject, said on Tuesday he saw the home front suffering “maybe not even 500 dead”.

In such a situation, Israel might rely increasingly on “stand-off” weaponry such as the Jerichos, which Jane’s missile experts believe are accurate only to around 1,000 yards (meters). This could mean more damage to Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including the lifeblood energy sector.

Svia Israeli officials: ElBaradei an Iranian agent – Israel News,

Israeli officials said Tuesday night that the International Atomic Energy Agency report stating that Iran has been working on developing a nuclear weapon design proves that the former UN nuclear watchdog chairman “was an Iranian agent”.

The former IAEA chairman, Mohamed ElBaradei, is an Egyptian diplomat who even won the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize.

For years he defended the Iranian nuclear program, claiming that it was peaceful, thus allowing the Iranians to continue their activity with the nuclear watchdog’s seal of approval.

According to one of the state officials, the new report published Tuesday proves “just how much he was working for the Iranians.

“He simply rescued Iran and was constantly busy covering up for them, causing serious damage by allowing the Iranians to fool the entire world and play for time. History may judge him as the person who helped Iran obtain a nuclear weapon.

“The things exposed now are not new. These are old things which were hidden and not published,” the official added. “Now it turns out that ElBaradei led an active policy of concealment and disregard. This is very serious. He is a despicable person.”

“ElBaradei didn’t just mess us up, he messed up the entire sane world,” added Uzi Eilam, former head of Israel‘s Atomic Energy Agency. “He was dishonest his entire term. He is the one who stopped the Security Council from imposing serious sanctions, providing the Iranians with precious time.”

Russia says will not back new Iran sanctions over nuclear program – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(In my view, the Russians may very well want the Israelis to strike.  What better way to help that along than by opposing sanctions?  They can’t be comfortable with Iran getting the bomb.  They have a worse radical Islam problem than anyone but Israel.  If oil prices spike, so much the better for the oil exporting Russia.  And afterward…  Think about all the remunerative “rebuilding:” contracts they’d be likely to be awarded having kept their skirts all clean and starched.  Russia is a true Oligarchy in every sense of the word.  What pays, plays. – JW)

Iranian army general: Dimona nuclear site could be targeted in response if Israel attacks Iran.

By News Agencies

Russia will not support new, tougher sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, Interfax news agency quoted a senior Russian diplomat as saying on Wednesday.

“Any additional sanctions against Iran will be seen in the international community as an instrument for regime change in Iran. That approach is unacceptable to us, and the Russian side does not intend to consider such proposals,” Interfax quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov as saying.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tehran, 2007.
	Photo by: AP

Earlier on Wednesday, France said it wanted to convene the UN Security Council and could push for unprecedented sanctions against Iran after an International Atomic Energy Agency report said Iran had worked to develop an atomic bomb design.

“Convening of the UN Security Council is called for,” Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told RFI radio.

In a statement, Juppe said diplomatic pressure needed to be ramped up.

“If Iran refuses to conform to the demands of the international community and refuses any serious cooperation, we stand ready to adopt, with other willing countries, sanctions on an unprecedented scale,” Juppe said.

Also on Wednesday, an Iranian army general warned Israel that any attack against Iranian nuclear sites would not only be met with the “destruction” of Israel, but would invite a reaction that spread beyond the Middle East.

Deputy armed forces chief Massoud Jazayeri did not further elaborate, but said that the Dimona nuclear site in Israel could be targeted by Iran if Israel attacked it.

Prepare for Iran war – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: In wake of damning UN report on Iran’s nuclear plan, world must prepare for war

Yigal Walt

Tuesday’s dramatic United Nations report indicating that Iran has been working towards producing nuclear weapons constitutes a huge humiliation for the world. For years now, the international community has foolishly dismissed this menace as either nascent or non-existent, while refraining from earnestly confronting the ayatollahs’ obvious nuke ambitions. Did anyone honestly think this approach would make the threat go away?

The blunt revelations contained in Tuesday’s report make a mockery of the global so-called effort to curb Iran’s race to the bomb. They also highlight the extent to which Tehran has been making a mockery of the world, lying brazenly and feeding absurd explanations to statesmen all too willing to accept them. How could anyone believe that Iran’s nuclear reactor was established for “medical research” purposes?

Yet now the game is over, at least in its current format, with a series of charges that are no less than shocking (in terms of their gravity that is, if not in respect to them actually surprising anyone.) The report charges that Iran has “carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device” while enlisting the help of “a clandestine nuclear network.” Moreover, Tehran’s high explosive experiments are “strong indicators of possible weapon development,” the UN says.

If you seek peace, prepare for war

Now that the “secret is out,” the moment of truth has arrived, not only for Israel but for the entire world. If the international community seeks to restore any semblance of deterrence and credibility, preventing the mad mullahs from acquiring doomsday weapons and dramatically changing the global balance of power, it must act decisively, aggressively and forcefully.

A failure to harshly and uncouthly respond to the latest revelations would mark the growing disintegration of our world into a lawless, reckless realm of violence and chaos. A soft approach on Iran at this time would serve as a signal of global surrender and usher in an era of horror and terror, forcing large parts of the civilized world to live under the cloud of an unprecedented radical threat.

The era of futile words and half-hearted actions has ended abruptly. The world, headed by the West, must now impose paralyzing, severe sanctions on Iran that would bring the Ayatollah regime to its knees. Should this fail to cool off Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, the fighter jets will have to be scrambled. Indeed, it would be no exaggeration to declare that the fate of modern civilization as we know it is now at stake. Si vis pacem, para bellum.

Photo by: REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl

    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday declared that Tehran will not pull back “even a needle’s width” from its nuclear path, even after an incriminating UN report on its nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad decried the UN nuclear watchdog’s report – which was released Tuesday night – saying it damaged the International Atomic Energy Agency’s dignity and was based on “invalid” US claims.

“You should know that this nation will not pull back even a needle’s width from the path it is on,” he said in a speech carried live on Iranian state television. “Why do you damage the agency’s dignity because of America’s invalid claims?” he asked.

Ahmadinejad’s comments echoed those of Iran’s IAEA envoy on Tuesday, who spoke shortly after the report’s release.

“The IAEA report is unbalanced, unprofessional and politically motivated,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s envoy to the IAEA.

Soltanieh said the IAEA report “did not contain any new issue.”

“Despite Iran’s readiness for negotiations, the IAEA published the report … which will harm its reputation,” Soltanieh said.

On Wednesday, hours before the report was released, Ahmadinejad criticized IAEA chair Yukiyo Amano, calling him a pawn for US interests.

Ahmadinejad said that IAEA was a tool for a few countries bent on world domination, and stated that Iran would continue to pursue nuclear development despite international pressure.

“They have empowered a person in the IAEA that has no authority and violates the agency’s rules by repeating the words of the US,” the Iranian president said according to Iranian semi-official FARS News Agency.

Ahamdinejad made the comments just as the IAEA was expected to release a report detailing intelligence about Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

The Iranian president also lashed out at the United States, saying Iran does not need an atomic bomb to “cut off [the] US’s hands,” official Iranian PressTV reported.

Noting that the United States possesses over 5,000 nuclear warheads,  Ahmadinejad accused Washington of arrogance in its campaign against Tehran.

The US, he said, has allocated “$81 billion to upgrade its atomic bombs, while the entire annual budget of Iran’s nuclear research is merely $250 million,” according to the report.

The UN nuclear watchdog report is expected to show recent activity in Iran that could help in developing nuclear warheads, including computer models of such weapons.

No smoking gun, but rather an Iranian nuclear missile – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

The findings and evidence illustrate – in the clearest wording ever by the IAEA – that Iran has systematically, consistently been working in the past decade to produce its first atomic bomb.

By Yossi Melman

No smoking gun, but rather a missile with a nuclear warhead. This could well be the summary of the severe and unprecedented findings of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report submitted yesterday to the organization’s 35 board members and immediately leaked to the media.

Despite the fact that the findings deal with technical details and are formulated in soft diplomatic jargon, they are unequivocal. The findings and evidence illustrate – in the clearest wording ever by the IAEA – that Iran has systematically and consistently been working in the past decade to produce its first atomic bomb.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility in 2008.
	Photo by: Sipa Press / Rex features

The report, and especially the findings and evidence provided in the annex, describe the full chain of Iranian actions, carried out in the dark while trying to cover up, confuse and spread disinformation throughout the world.

Through these activities Iran has succeeded in purchasing the knowledge, the technology and the designs, and in carrying out the experiments that got it ever so close to producing a nuclear weapon. Iran has conducted experiments in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead on a Shihab missile.

The report is a certificate of excellence and courage of the IAEA, led by director general Yukiya Amano, and it puts to shame past reports written by the same organization during the tenure of its Egyptian director general, Dr. Mohamed El Baradei.

It’s true that in the past two years, since Amano was appointed, the organization has received new evidence and information. However, most of the incriminating evidence was available when El Baradei led the IAEA, but he preferred not to publish the findings, or soften the wording in a way that would confuse the readers and portray Iran in a deceptive light, as if there wasn’t conclusive evidence that it was aiming to produce nuclear weapons.

El Baradei, one must add, reiterated his beliefs even in the past few weeks, most notably in an interview with the “New Yorker.”

Amano, on the other hand, wasn’t intimidated by the pressure and threats of Iran, or of Russia and China, who tried until the last moment to prevent the publication of yesterday’s report, or at least of the annex that includes the damning evidence.

Iran is right about one thing: Amano is backed by the West and especially the U.S., who provided the information that forms the basis for the report. According to its text, the information in the report was provided by ten other countries, meaning ten intelligence agencies. One can assume, and read into foreign reports that the Israeli intelligence agencies – the Mossad and the IDF’s Aman (military intelligence) – also contributed their share of the evidence.

Still, it remains doubtful whether the unequivocal evidence will bring the results Israel, the U.S. and the West hope for. Their hope is that the clear information regarding Iran’s secret military nuclear program will persuade the leaders of Russia and China that one can’t wait any longer before applying new, more comprehensive sanctions.

The sanctions of 2006, approved by Russia and China – and that too, after a long struggle – didn’t deter the Iranians, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, from continuing to walk on the stealth path to nuclear armament.

Russia and China have their own interests, and an opposing foreign policy to that of the U.S. and the West. They have already indicated that they do not believe new sanctions should be applied, and are even outraged that the report – and especially the annex – is being published. They believe that the the timing is unfortunate and would further complicate diplomatic negotiations with Iran, aimed at persuading the Islamic Republic to change direction.

It is highly unlikely that the UN Security Council will be convened in the upcoming weeks to discuss a new set of aggressive sanctions. The only step that could possibly affect Iran’s government would be severe sanctions against its banking system, including the Iranian central bank, which funds the networks that purchase the knowledge and means, or against it’s energy products, which are the main source of Iran’s income.

Without sanctions that would harm these two sectors, Iran will continue on its way, albeit possibly hurt and weakened. The report is actually a victory for the Israeli point of view and somewhat harms American prestige. It completely contradicts the assessment of U.S. intelligence from 2007, which claimed that Iran stopped its secret nuclear program in 2003.

The IAEA actually claims the contrary, Iran didn’t stop the program but rather increased it’s pace. Still, Israel might feel frustrated when it tells the world, “We told you so.” This frustration will emanate from the fact that in spite of the smoking gun that’s on the table for all to see, it’s doubtful that a shot will be heard in the final scene. In light of international interests, it seems that the only sanctions that could work will not be applied, and therefore Israel will find itself back at square one, facing the same dilemma: to attack or not to attack.

Some observers believe that Israel doesn’t have the military capability for a strike that would efficiently stop the progress of the Iranian nuclear program, and that a failed attack would have severe consequences – maybe even a full fledged regional war that would disrupt the oil supply to the already problematic markets. And without an attack – only the U.S. might carry it out effectively – Israel, Saudi Arabi and the Gulf states would be hostages to the Iranian regime. The fact that up until now Iran has acted rationally doesn’t mean that it won’t change course and press the button for apocalyptic, messianic reasons.

France wants UNSC meeting over I… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    France wants to bring together members of the UN Security Council in light of the International Atomic Energy Agency report saying Iran has worked to develop an atomic bomb design.

“Convening of the UN Security Council is called for,” Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told RFI radio, adding that pressure needed to be ramped up on Iran and that France was willing to go further with sanctions.

“We cannot accept this situation which is a threat,” said Juppe.

China, meanwhile, called for a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue, amidst Chinese media speculation that the Iranian nuclear program would lead to a showdown between the Islamic Republic the West.

“China advocates using peaceful means to resolve the Iran nuclear issue,” Chinese Foreign Minister Hong Lei told a daily news briefing.

Hong said China – one of five permanent members of the Security Council also including France – was still studying the report, but urged Iran to show “flexibility” and “sincerity”.

A Chinese state newspaper warned on Wednesday that a standoff between Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear plans could erupt in military conflict.

Chinese policy-makers are caught between their demand for Iranian oil and worry that the United States and its allies will demand harsher sanctions against Iran, even risk military action, after the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded Iran appeared to have worked on designing an atomic weapon.

“It is clear that contention between the various sides over the Iranian nuclear issue has reached white hot levels and could even be on the precipice of a showdown,” the overseas edition of the People’s Daily said in a front-page commentary.

If Iran refused to back down in the face of growing US conviction that it was developing nuclear weapons, “the risks of war will grow”, said the paper, noting reports that Israel could consider a military strike on Iranian nuclear sites.

The People’s Daily is the top newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party and broadly reflects official thinking.

China’s official Xinhua news agency also suggested that Beijing would respond warily to the report. The UN watchdog still “lacks a smoking gun”, Xinhua said in a commentary.

“There are no witnesses or physical evidence to prove that Iran is making nuclear weapons,” it said.

“In dealing with the Iran nuclear issue, it is extremely dangerous to rely on suspicions, and the destructive consequences of any armed action would endure for a long time.”

China is likely to face difficult choices as it tries to keep steady ties with the United States, which is likely to introduce new unilateral sanctions on Iran.

“If these sanctions harm China’s substantive interests, then China will have to respond in some way,” said Li Hong, the secretary general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, a government-controlled body.

“It would certainly have an impact on bilateral relations,” Li said in an interview.

Israel and Turkey showing moderate signs of renewed ties – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Revival of relationship happens as Turkey regains its place as a major asset to the West; Israel would do well to forget its pride and cozy up.

By Zvi Bar’el

Political manners and diplomatic behavior are not exactly the trademark of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Israel is already intimately acquainted with his sharp tongue and in-your-face style, and it is not the only one.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has also been treated to a heavy helping of sharp criticism and sanctions from Ankara, accompanied by the demand that he resign. When Erdogan is angry, he says what is in his heart. Even the French president and the German chancellor have not been spared by him.

	Workers at Ben-Gurion Airport loading a jumbo jet with supplies for Turkey last month, after the devastating earthquake there.
	Photo by: Hadar Cohen

Any new nuance in his speech requires attention, and with regard to Israel, the nuances are beginning to turn positive.

Thus, for example, Erdogan refrained from expressing his views about the latest Israeli attacks on Gaza. Even the government’s plan to fast-track thousands of housing units in the territories as a punishment for the Palestinians’ UNESCO bid, went by without comment.

One could claim that in the wake of Israel’s donation of temporary housing after the earthquake that hit Turkey last month, Erdogan is merely refraining from biting the hand that feeds.

But turkey’s readiness to accept David Meidan, the mediator in the Shalit swap, who has been appointed to thaw relations with Ankara, is a sign of good will. To this can be added the fact that Turkey did not accompany the latest flotilla that made a run at Gaza.

It can be stated, cautiously, that something good is developing between the two countries.

Israel is not ignoring the signals coming out of Ankara and is even reciprocating in kind. Last week, the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which is in charge of selling arms, informed the American Senate that it planned to sell Turkey three Super Cobra assault helicopters for $111 million. The choppers are meant to be used against the Kurdish rebel group PKK.

Before the official announcement to the Senate, Pentagon officials examined whether the request was likely to meet with opposition, particularly from pro-Israel circles. Once it became clear Israel was not likely to oppose the sale, the official request was submitted and is expected to be approved on November 13.

Washington has also agreed to sell Ankara – once again without opposition from Israel – information about the source code of the F-16’s weapons system, allowing Turkey to program the aircraft it has bought. Congress had previously opposed selling Turkey weapons systems or software programs because of its frosty relations with Israel.

Turkey’s day

Ankara and Washington’s relationship goes much deeper than how Israel feels about it. Turkey has agreed to let the Americans station an anti-missile warning radar system designed as a first line against an Iranian missile attack on its territory. (The Turks only acceded after being promised that information from the radar would not be transferred to Israel ).

And Turkey has also toed the American line on its position toward the Syrian regime. But Israel still could have derailed the arms deals. It is good that it refrained from doing so.

Turkey has begun a huge project of beefing up its defense infrastructure. It is adding 30 F-16s to its air force at a price of $2 billion (the deal was signed in 2007 ) and is increasing the budget of its intelligence service and army by some $6 billion. It is also expanding its arms exports to African countries and Pakistan.

Erdogan should be especially pleased with his country’s new international status. Just six months ago, Turkey was being accused of abandoning the West and sliding toward Iran and Syria. Today, no reasonable Western leader would point to Turkey as an opponent.

Erdogan has succeeded in turning Turkey into a sought-after country with a strong economy. It had 9 percent growth in 2010 and is expecting 7 percent growth in 2011.

It is true that there are fears about this hot economy since inflation peaked at 7.7 percent in October and the central bank dramatically raised the interest rate so as to reduce the scope of loans, but so far that has not threatened the political or diplomatic wave that Erdogan is riding.

In Washington, Turkey no longer has to rely on Israel lobbying on its behalf. Ankara’s interests are now seen as in line with American interests, whereas Jerusalem is quickly gaining a reputation as a tiresome burden on American policy.

Turkey will be front and center as a major regional influence should Assad lose power in Damascus, it will exert its influence in Iraq after the final withdrawal of the American troops from that country, and it is currently helping curb Iranian influence in central Asia. Any rational country would want strong relations with a Turkey of that kind.

It is a shame that Israel still considers prestige and honor strategic assets, and not an alliance with a rising regional power.

The signs of thawing between Ankara and Jerusalem are important and encouraging but they will not be sufficient unless Israel escapes from the trap in which it is stuck, apologizes for killing Turks aboard the blockade-running Mavi Marmara in 2009, and reaches an agreement on compensation.

A country that agreed to hand over 1,000 terrorists in order to bring home a single soldier can also apologize in order to preserve national interests.

Israeli defense minister warns Iran military strike is possible, downplays retaliation fallout – The Washington Post.

In this Nov. 2, 2011 file photo, the smoke trail of a missile test-fired by the Israeli army is seen from the central Israeli town of Yavne. Among the many alliances of convenience in the Middle East, there is one so unusual that the partners can barely hint about it publicly: Israel and the Gulf Arab states linked by shared fears over Iran’s nuclear program.

Will world confront Iran? – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Effort to curb nuclear Iran requires quick, firm action, but is West up to challenge?

The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shows that Iran’s nuclear program has military aims. The report not only details up-to-date information about Iran’s uranium enrichment, but also the vast information accumulated by the organization on the ayatollah regime’s efforts to produce the bomb itself.

This is where the report’s main significance lies. It does not assert that Iran already possesses nuclear weapons or even provide an estimate of when such arms would be acquired, yet it decisively disproves Tehran’s claims that its nuclear program has peaceful aims. Hence, the very publication of the report constitutes an impressive diplomatic achievement for the United States and its allies, granting them a powerful political lever against Iran, and mostly against Russia and China (which object to so-called “paralyzing sanctions” that would threaten the survival of the Tehran regime.)

The question now is how the West will be using this lever to curb Iran’s nuke program. The fairly well-established assessment at this time is that the West has a year or more to take steps that would prevent Iran from producing a nuclear device.

An up-to-date summary of the information available to the IAEA and Western intelligence services is that Iran currently possesses enough low-grade enriched uranium that would provide sufficient fissile material for 2-3 nuclear bombs. In order to produce enough material for one nuclear device (similar to the bomb dropped by the US on Hiroshima,) Iran would need to enrich some 1,600 kilograms (roughly 3,500 pounds) of uranium to the 90% mark. Iran is believed to already posses the technological know-how to do this.

However, Tehran’s ability to rapidly enrich large quantities of uranium is still limited. The reason for this is that the number of centrifuges at its disposal is still rather low and totals several thousands. The bottom line is that given the current state of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, it would need at least two years to produce enough fissile materials for one to three bombs once it takes the decision to do so.

Will Iran develop nuke device?

Meanwhile, Iran’s weapons program is at a much more advanced stage. The IAEA report indicates that Iranian scientists have been working for seven years now, and possibly more, on developing the bomb’s mechanism. This so-called implosion apparatus is designed to produce heat and pressure that would stimulate the nuclear chain reaction.

Based on available information, experts and Western spy agencies estimate that Iran is currently six months to a year away from completing the development of a first nuclear device. Once the development work would be done, Iran would need to test such device in order to ensure it works properly, as done by India and Pakistan for example. It’s unlikely that Tehran would settle for a computerized simulation of such detonation.

Once such device is tested, the world would know that Iran possesses military nuclear capabilities; the implication of this for the region and for Israel’s security would be fateful.

However, we must keep in mind that a nuclear device, even if tested and operational, does not constitute a nuclear weapon. It would be a giant object, the size of a small car, which can produce a nuclear explosion but is very hard to direct at its target. In order to turn a “nuke device” into a “nuke weapon”, one must minimize it and reduce its weight so it would fit on a ballistic missile or as a bomb that a fighter jet could carry for long distances.

Yet once Iran possesses a working nuclear device, regardless of how large it is, it would still be able to use it in order to target another state: For example, by placing it in a container and shipping it to a foreign port, detonating it using a remote control. Hence, even if Iran does not complete the development of a nuclear warhead, it would still possess a primitive nuclear device that can be used.

In other words, a successfully tested nuclear device would mean – for Israel and for the international community – that Iran has turned into a nuclear military power.

Counting on Saudis

For the time being, Iran is working towards fortifying and hiding its nuclear development and production sites underground, so that a potential Israeli or Western military operation would fail to secure its aims. Yet the West still has a window of opportunity of a year to a year and a half where it can exert economic and other pressure on Iran, without resorting to a military strike. Such moves comprise economic means that would threaten the regime’s survival, topped by a global boycott of Iran’s central back and an embargo on importing and exporting oil products.

The IAEA granted Iran a time-out to explain the report’s grave findings and urged Tehran to embark on discussions, without delay, in order to provide clarifications. The real aim of this time-out is to enable the US, the European Union, Russia and China to restart negotiations with Iran aimed at reaching a compromise that would halt Tehran’s nuke effort. Iran would likely jump at the opportunity and agree to dialogue, yet exploit it – as happened in the past –to buy time while advancing its nuclear program.

Another option available to the US and its allies is to adopt tough sanctions independently, not in the framework of the Security Council. However, as it turned out in recent days, America and the EU are not eager to impose such sanctions, because they would hurt the Iranian people first and foremost and possibly prompt them to rally around their government.

Another concern is that an oil embargo on Iran would prompt global oil prices to skyrocket, thereby indirectly also undermining the US and European economies. In order to avert this possibility, the US would have to convince Arab oil producers in the Persian Gulf to boost their production, to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil and avert a global price hike.

There is a good chance that Gulf states, headed by Saudi Arabia, would comply with the American request, and therefore there is still a good chance that the latest IAEA report would prompted substantive, effective pressure on Iran should Western steps be taken quickly and firmly. Otherwise, the military option will be placed on the agenda with renewed vigor, not only in Israel but apparently in the US and in other Western states as well.