WarSclerotic

FM: Media reports on Iran are ca… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Wednesday said that 99 percent of what is being published in the media in relation to a strike on Iran “has no relation to the truth.” The foreign minister was responding to a question about whether he had been convinced to support such a strike. Nonetheless, he said that the media reports had caused “tremendous damage.”

In an interview with Israel Radio, Lieberman stressed that bringing private discussions from inside the security establishment into the public domain “is madness.”

Lieberman also discussed sanctions on Iran, saying that “the international community has much more to do on the Iranian issue.”

“We expect that the international community imposes sanctions,” which he said are needed on the Iranian Central Bank and on the Iranian oil industry.

Minister-without-Portfolio Benny Begin also slammed the Israeli media’s conduct surrounding talk of a possible IDF strike on Iran, in an interview with Army Radio Wednesday morning. “There has never been a breakdown of responsibility and a campaign of recklessness like there is today,” Begin said.

Last week, Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot ran a front-page column entitled, “Atomic Pressure,” which alleged that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are in the midst of a campaign to convince cabinet ministers of the necessity of striking Iran’s nuclear program.

The media attention, Begin said, “pales in comparison to the acts of Anat Kamm, for which she was sentenced to four and a half years in prison,” echoing sentiments expressed by Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor Wednesday in a Ma’ariv op-ed.

Seemingly referring to former Mossad chief Meir Dagan’s push in recent months to discredit the necessity of a military strike on Iran, Begin said that public servants “swore to guard state secrets forever, also after they leave their positions.”

Making such discussions public, he added, “can present real damage to the government’s abilities to make decisions.”

Former National Security Council head Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland countered Begin’s attack on public discourse on the Iranian issue, saying that such debate is natural.

“It’s hard to take a topic that the prime minister declares to be the most important to the state of Israel and then prevent public debate about it,” Eiland told Army Radio.

“It is only natural that the media took an interest in it,” he added.

Iran warns Israeli strike will meet ‘harsh punishment’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Tehran’s top military chief says Islamic Republic will not hesitate to mount severe response should Israel ‘make the mistake’ of attacking it

Dudi Cohen

Analysis: What may be involved i… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    Over the past several days, Hebrew media reports have been engaged in intense speculation regarding a possible imminent Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak appeared to have made a veiled reference to the issue again on Tuesday, when he told the Knesset that Israel may have to protect its vital interests alone, while other reports focused on comments by Interior Minister Eli Yishai, who stated this week that difficult decisions were “keeping him up at nights,” without elaborating further.

Israel is believed to have a fully prepared plan to launch such a strike, which would likely involve at least several hundred aircraft.

Multiple aerial routes are theoretically available for Israeli aircraft to reach targets in Iran. In all those paths though, the jets would likely have to either neutralize or evade radar systems of other countries along the route, as well as face the potential fallout that could follow an intrusion of foreign airspace.

Israel also possesses the advanced midair refueling capabilities required for carrying out sorties over multiple Iranian targets situated between 1,500 and 2,000 km.

away from home. Possible targets could include uranium- enrichment sites at Natanz and Qom, the uranium- conversion plant at Isfahan, and a heavy water reactor in Arak suspected of being used to pursue a plutoniumbased nuclear arms program, as well as additional facilities.

But getting there is only half the story.

The Air Force, which according to foreign reports has gone on dry runs to practice such an attack on previous occasions over the past decade, would first have to neutralize Iran’s aerial defense capabilities, blind Iran’s radars, destroy command and control centers and paralyze Iran’s own air force for a while, before overcoming fortifications and special aerial defense measures placed by the Iranians around their nuclear sites. The operational challenge is vast.

The Air Force would in effect have to take temporary control over sections of Iran’s airspace before being able to target nuclear facilities, some of which are hidden in mountains or deep underground.

The mission would require the use of powerful bunker-busting bombs, as well as possible repeated strikes to ensure success.

According to a Newsweek article from September, the US has already transferred 55 such bombs to Israel.

The attack would likely be coordinated with the assistance of Israeli intelligence satellites that could provide real time detailed images from the battle arena, as well as Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft.

It could also involve the use of a fleet of giant Heron 2 drones, which are the size of 737 commercial airliners.

These UAVs form the first line of defense against an expected Iranian counterstrike, involving the launch of long-range Shihab 3 missiles.

The Israeli drones can reportedly reach Iran and hover over missile launch sites. Israel’s Arrow missile defense shield would also come into play to intercept missiles heading into Israeli airspace.

However, such a strike would undoubtedly touch off conflict with Iran’s proxy in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah, which is armed with tens of thousands of rockets, as well as Hamas in Gaza, and possibly with Syria. The resulting chain of events could easily lead to a major regional war and long-term instability, so much so that some senior Israeli defense figures have reportedly been rejecting the idea of attacking Iran for years.

With Syria on the way down, Iran needs nukes more than ever – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

With nuclear weapons, Assad could presumably have slept well even as he continued to massacre his citizens.

By Avi Issacharoff

The deteriorating position of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, both at home and abroad, goes a long way toward explaining his never-ending attempts to obtain nuclear weapons. It also goes some way toward explaining the Iranian regime’s stubborn determination to produce a nuclear bomb.

The goal is not only to obtain weapons that would allow them to destroy the State of Israel, but also, and primarily, to obtain an insurance policy for their decaying totalitarian regimes – one of which is already on the way out, while the other, in Tehran, is worried that the Syrian precedent will create a domino effect in its country.

	Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, center, laying a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier in Damascus on Thursday, the 38th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.th anniversary o
	Photo by: AFP / Sana

Tuesday’s Associated Press report that the International Atomic Energy Agency has discovered another complex that appears to be part of Syria’s nuclear program merely underscores how ambitious the Syrian project is. Assad did not make do with building a plutonium production facility near Deir al-Zor, which the Syrians claim Israel bombed in 2007, but also tried to build a uranium enrichment facility in the buildings recently discovered in Al-Hasakah, in the northeast of the country.

For now, it’s business almost as usual in Syria. The Syrian army is continuing its brutal violence in an attempt to suppress demonstrations all over the country; to date, between 3,000 and 4,000 civilians have been killed. Shooting from helicopters, tanks and ships has become an almost daily occurrence, as have mass arrests. On Monday, “only” 12 people may have been killed in confrontations between the army, the protestors and the armed groups that oppose Assad, but the daily average for the previous week stood at 20 to 30 people killed every day.

These worrisome numbers have prompted calls from the international community – including, perhaps surprisingly, parts of the Muslim world – for military action against Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gone a step further, saying his country cannot stand idly by in the face of the regime’s ongoing repression of the Syrian people.

It’s a very long way from such remarks to a Turkish declaration of war on Syria. But Erdogan’s message is clear, and so is the general mood in the new Middle East: Assad must go.

Most of the moderate Sunni states agree with this position, and that is why Assad’s regime went on the attack against them on Tuesday, claiming that various circles in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon are operating terrorist groups inside Syria. Damascus also rejected the Arab League’s latest proposal on Tuesday: to withdraw its military forces from Syria’s cities, end the violence and launch a dialogue with the opposition in Cairo.

The Syrian army also does not hesitate to go into Lebanon to kidnap opposition activists or deserters. And a few days ago, Syria’s president warned that if his country is attacked, the shock waves will reverberate throughout the region.

One of the considerations often mentioned in recent months to explain why the West is in no hurry to attack Syria the way it did Libya are the missiles with chemical warheads that Assad has, and the fear that he would use them if his regime were on the verge of collapse. Had he also had nuclear weapons, Assad could presumably have slept well at night even as he continued to massacre his citizens, in the full knowledge that no Arab, Muslim or Western nation would even consider attacking his country.

The town of Deir al-Zor, which has turned into a focus of opposition to Syria’s president, is not far from the place where the plutonium manufacturing facility was bombed. On Tuesday, a demonstration in favor of Assad’s regime was held there. But Assad’s supporters in Iran and Hezbollah understand the gravity of his situation.

On Tuesday, Samir Kuntar, the terrorist who killed the Haran family in Nahariya in 1978, came out in support of Assad. Kuntar said he is willing to cut off the hands of anyone who opposes the Syrian government, and that the opposition is a conspiracy to weaken Hezbollah.

The Iranians may be more cautious about speaking their minds on the matter, but they, too, understand that their Alawite ally’s reign is in danger. In these troubled times, obtaining nuclear weapons has become even more critical for Tehran.

If the Arab Spring turns into a broader Islamic Spring and comes to Iran as well, the regime in Tehran will also repress the opposition, using methods even more brutal than Assad has. An atomic bomb would provide it with immunity against any attempt by the international community to intervene.

Netanyahu trying to persuade cabinet to support attack on Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who previously objected to attacking Iran, was recently persuaded by Netanyahu and Barak to support such a move.

By Zvi Zrahiya, Jonathan Lis, Barak Ravid and Amos Harel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are trying to muster a majority in the cabinet in favor of military action against Iran, a senior Israeli official has said. According to the official, there is a “small advantage” in the cabinet for the opponents of such an attack.

Netanyahu and Barak recently persuaded Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who previously objected to attacking Iran, to support such a move.

	IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz watching tank exercises during a special ceremony in the Golan Heights, on Tuesday.
	Photo by: Yaron Kaminksy

Although more than a million Israelis have had to seek shelter during a week of rockets raining down on the south, political leaders have diverted their attention to arguing over a possible war with Iran. Leading ministers were publicly dropping hints on Tuesday that Israeli could attack Iran, although a member of the forum of eight senior ministers said no such decision had been taken.

Senior ministers and diplomats said the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report, due to be released on November 8, will have a decisive effect on the decisions Israel makes.

The commotion regarding Iran was sparked by journalist Nahum Barnea’s column in Yedioth Ahronoth last Friday. Barnea’s concerned tone and his editors’ decision to run the column under the main headline (“Atomic Pressure” ) repositioned the debate on Iran from closed rooms to the media’s front pages.

Reporters could suddenly ask the prime minister and defense minister whether they intend to attack Iran in the near future and the political scene went haywire.

Western intelligence officials agree that Iran is forging ahead with its nuclear program. Intelligence services now say it will take Iran two or three years to get the bomb once it decides to (it hasn’t made the decision yet ).

According to Western experts’ analyses, an attack on Iran in winter is almost impossible, because the thick clouds would obstruct the Israel Air Force’s performance.

Netanyahu did not rule out the possibility of the need for a military action on Iran this week. During his Knesset address on Monday, Netanyahu warned of Iran’s increased power and influence. “One of those regional powers is Iran, which is continuing its efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. A nuclear Iran would constitute a grave threat to the Middle East and the entire world, and of course it is a direct and grave threat on us,” he said.

Barak said Israel should not be intimidated but did not rule out the possibility that Israel would launch a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. “I object to intimidation and saying Israel could be destroyed by Iran,” he said.

“We’re not hiding our thoughts. However there are issues we don’t discuss in public … We have to act in every way possible and no options should be taken off the table … I believe diplomatic pressure and sanctions must be brought to bear against Iran,” he said.

Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon said he preferred an American military attack on Iran to an Israeli one. “A military move is the last resort,” he said.

Interior Minister Eli Yishai has not made his mind up yet on the issue. In a speech to Shas activists in the north on Monday Yishai said “this is a complicated time and it’s better not to talk about how complicated it is. This possible action is keeping me awake at night. Imagine we’re [attacked] from the north, south and center. They have short-range and long-range missiles – we believe they have about 100,000 rockets and missiles.”

Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor said he supports an American move against Iran. In an interview to the Walla! website some two weeks ago Meridor said “It’s clear to all that a nuclear Iran is a grave danger and the whole world, led by the United States, must make constant efforts to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The Iranians already have more than four tons of 3-4 percent enriched uranium and 70 kgs. of 20 percent enriched uranium. It’s clear to us they are continuing to make missiles. Iran’s nuclearization is not only a threat to Israel but to several other Western states, and the international interest must unite here.”

Former Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer said he feared a “horror scenario” in which Netanyahu and Barak decide to attack Iran. He warned of a “rash act” and said he hoped “common sense will prevail.”

On Tuesday, Barak said at the Knesset’s Finance Committee that the state budget must be increased by NIS 7-8 a year for five years to fulfill Israel’s security needs and answer the social protest. “The situation requires expanding the budget to enable us to act in a responsible way regarding the defense budget considering the challenges, as well as fulfill some of the demands coming from the Trajtenberg committee,” he said.