WarSclerotic

Two opposing attack-Iran analyses | Capital J | JTA – Jewish & Israel News.

By Ron Kampeas · November 2, 2011

I follow CNN’s Ben Wedeman on Twitter (@bencnn) and today he recommended two decidedly different forecasts viz: the West and Iran in coming months.

There’s this from the Guardian:

Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.

The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.

In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air- and sea-launched campaign.

Let’s stipulate here that what the British seem to be preparing for is a potential attack — not one that is in the go-ahead stages. But still.

And then, at 972, Larry Derfner reads the Israeli press and makes a persuasive case that the debate has effectively changed in Israel; the Israeli defense establishment opposes an attack, and they are not alone. And without the defense establishment’s approval, there will be no attack.

In all the rising volume over Netanyahu and Barak’s plot to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilties, by far the most important sound in the air is silence – the silence of the heads of the IDF, IDF Intelligence, Mossad and Shin Bet. In his Friday column that broke it all open, Nahum Barnea wrote in Yediot Aharonot that the four security/intelligence chiefs – Benny Gantz (IDF), Aviv Cochavi (IDF Intelligence), Tamir Pardo (Mossad) and Yoram Cohen (Shin Bet) were all opposed to an attack. Since then, none of them have denied it, none of them or “sources close to” them have said a word. Which means it’s confirmed – all four leaders of Israel’s professional military-intelligence establishment are against bombing Iran.

Which means it ain’t gonna happen, at least not until further notice. The prime minister and defense minister can’t overrule the unanimous opinion of Israel’s war council – especially when all four of their immediate predecessors, led by ex-Mossad chief Meir Dagan – are also against it.

Are Israel’s military drills preparation for an Iran strike? – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(Lots, and lots, and LOTS of “coincidences lately.  P.W. Bridgman said, “A coincidence is what you have left over when you apply a bad theory. – JW)

The IDF military drills taking place this week were planned a long time ago, but as they occurred alongside a public debate on a strike on Iran, there are some who seek to maximize their gains.

By Anshel Pfeffer

It is important to note that the drills and tests of recent days, and those expected to take place in the coming days, were all planned months ago.

The test-firing of a ballistic missile on Wednesday at the Palmahim Israel Defense Forces base in central Israel would not have been possible without a long and complex process of serious planning and rigorous safety standards; The joint drill with the Italian Air Force last week over Sardinia could not have occurred without extensive pre-planning with the Italians. The drill planned for Thursday in Holon, simulating a rocket attack on Gush Dan, was scheduled a long time ago by the Home Front Command.

	An IAF helicopter
	Photo by: Tal Cohen

However, one cannot ignore the proximity of these events, together with the continuing operational work on the Iron Dome systems in Gaza and in northern Israel, the acceleration of the Magic Wand and Arrow 3 defense systems – and naturally the public discourse over the last few days concerning the possibility of a strike on Iran.

All these elements – with differing degrees of planning – provide the background music in a concert of a military apparatus preparing for a possible large-scale operation. Even if the decision to attack Iran has not yet been made, and despite opposition by senior security officials, the IDF’s task – and that of the rest of the security and intelligence bodies – is to provide the decision-making level with the maximum number of operational options and the offensive and defensive options.

The speed in which events are unfolding, and the advancement of the IDF and military industries’ development and training programs, often result in such a combination – drills simulating long-range attacks and drills simulating missile attacks on population centers. Such coincidences have occurred quite often in the past, and they will happen again in the future.

Yet when such a coincidence occurs alongside a whirlwind of news and an unprecedented public discussion concerning the decision-making process at the top echelon of Israel’s political-military pyramid, it is hard to ignore the feeling that there are some elements who are trying these days to highlight every drill and maximize their gains.

UK military steps up plans for Iran attack amid fresh nuclear fears | World news | The Guardian.

British officials consider contingency options to back up a possible US action as fears mount over Tehran’s capability

Iranian nuclear technicians in protective wear. Photograph: Mehdi Ghasemi/AP

Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.

The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.

In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air- and sea-launched campaign.

The Guardian has spoken to a number of Whitehall and defence officials over recent weeks who said Iran was once again becoming the focus of diplomatic concern after the revolution in Libya.

They made clear the US president, Barack Obama, has no wish to embark on a new and provocative military venture before next November’s US election. But they warned the calculus could change because of mounting anxiety over intelligence gathered by western agencies, and the more belligerent posture that Iran appears to have been taking.

One senior Whitehall official said the regime had proved “surprisingly resilient” in the face of sanctions, and sophisticated attempts by the west to cripple its nuclear enrichment programme had been less successful than first thought.

He said Iran appeared to be “newly aggressive – and we are not quite sure why”, citing three recent assassination plots on foreign soil that the intelligence agencies say were co-ordinated by elements in Tehran.

On top of that, the agencies now believe Iran has restored all the capability it lost in a sophisticated cyber-attack last year.

The Stuxnet computer worm, thought to have been engineered by the Americans and Israelis, sabotaged many of the centrifuges the Iranians were using to enrich uranium.

Up to half of Iran’s centrifuges were disabled by Stuxnet or were thought too unreliable to work, but diplomats believe this capability has now been recovered, and the International Atomic Energy Authority believes it may even be increasing.

Ministers have also been told that the Iranians have been moving some new, more efficient centrifuges into the heavily fortified military base dug beneath a mountain at the city of Qom.

The concern is that the centrifuges, which can be used to enrich uranium for use in weapons, are now so well protected within the site that missile strikes may not be able to reach them. The senior Whitehall source said the Iranians appeared to be shielding “material and capability” inside the base.

Another Whitehall official, with knowledge of Britain’s military planning, said that within the next 12 months Iran may have hidden all the material it needs to continue a covert weapons programme inside fortified bunkers. He said this had necessitated the UK’s planning being taken to a new level.

“Beyond [12 months], we couldn’t be sure our missiles could reach them,” the source said. “So the window is closing, and the UK needs to do some sensible forward planning. The US could do this on their own but they won’t. So we need to anticipate being asked to contribute. We had thought this would wait until after the US election next year, but now we are not so sure. President Obama has a big decision to make in the coming months because he won’t want to do anything just before an election.”

Another source added there was “no acceleration towards military action by the US, but that could change”. Next spring could be a key decision-making period, the source said.

The MoD has a specific team considering the military options against Iran. The Guardian has been told that planners expect any campaign to be predominantly waged from the air, with some naval involvement, using missiles such as the Tomahawks, which have a range of 800 miles. There are no plans for a ground invasion, but “a small number of special forces” may be needed on the ground, too.

The RAF could also provide air-to-air refuelling and some surveillance capability, should it be required. British officials say any assistance would be cosmetic: the US could act on its own but would prefer not to.

An MoD spokesman said: “The British government believes that a dual track strategy of pressure and engagement is the best approach to address the threat from Iran’s nuclear programme and avoid regional conflict. We want a
negotiated solution – but all options should be kept on the table.”

The MoD says there are no hard-and-fast blueprints for conflict but insiders concede that preparations at headquarters and at the Foreign Office have been under way for some time.

One official said: “I think that it is fair to say that the MoD is constantly making plans for all manner of international situations. Some areas are of more concern than others.

“It is not beyond the realms of possibility that people at the MoD are thinking about what we might do should something happen on Iran. It is quite likely that there will be people in the building who have thought about what we would do if commanders came to us and asked us if we could support the US. The context for that is straightforward contingency planning.”

Washington has been warned by Israel against leaving any military action until it is too late. Western intelligence agencies say Israel will demand that the US act if Jerusalem believes its own military cannot launch successful attacks to stall Iran’s nuclear programme. A source said the “Israelis want to believe that they can take this stuff out”, and will continue to agitate for military action if Iran continues to play hide and seek.

It is estimated that Iran, which has consistently said it is interested only in developing a civilian nuclear energy programme, already has enough enriched uranium for between two and four nuclear weapons.

Experts believe it could be another two years before Tehran has a ballistic missile delivery system. British officials admit to being perplexed by what they regard as Iran’s new aggressiveness, saying that they have been shown convincing evidence that Iran was behind the murder of a Saudi diplomat in Karachi in May, as well as the audacious plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, which was uncovered last month. “There is a clear dotted line from Tehran to the plot in Washington,” said one.

The International Atomic Energy Authority is due to publish its latest report on Iran this month. Earlier this year, it reported that it had evidence Tehran had conducted work on a highly sophisticated nuclear triggering technology that could only be used for setting off a nuclear device. It also said it was “increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organisations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”

Last year, the UN security council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran to try to deter Tehran from pursuing any nuclear ambitions.

Last weekend, the New York Times reported that the US was looking to build up its military presence in the region, with one eye on Iran. According to the paper, the US is considering sending more naval warships to the area, and is seeking to expand military ties with the six nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

Jerusalem Issue Briefs-Hizbullah Discusses Its Operational Plan for War with Israel: Missile Fire on Tel Aviv and Conquest.

• In recent weeks Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah held a series of meetings with his top-level military command as well as field commanders responsible for preparing for war with Israel. According to a source close to Hizbullah, Nasrallah’s operational directive was that in the next military conflict with Israel, Hizbullah will hit Tel Aviv with missiles at the outset of the war, while also dispatching forces to conquer the Galilee.

• Hizbullah forces are being trained to fire at least ten thousand missiles, right at the war’s outset, at military and strategic targets such as airfields, military camps, and vital facilities including maritime ones, followed by the firing of rockets from launch sites whose location will come as a surprise to Israel.

• The operational plan was formulated in tandem with senior Iranian strategic experts and will include a force of five thousand fighters who have recently trained in Iran, tasked with taking over designated zones in northern Israel including Nahariya, Shlomi, and Carmiel.

• It was said that engineering units of the Iranian army had mined areas in the eastern Bekaa Valley that were seen as possible landing sites for Israeli special forces, and that Hizbullah had equipped itself with “smart” Iranian anti-tank missiles that can disrupt the defensive systems of Israel’s Merkava tanks.

• Nasrallah’s recent escalation of public statements stems from heightened fear in Hizbullah that an Israeli and/or American attack on Iran is drawing nearer. As a strategic arm of Iran, Hizbullah sees itself as Iran’s first line of defense against Israel.

On 27 October 2011 the Lebanese newspaper Al Joumhouria reported that in recent weeks the leader of Hizbullah, Hasan Nasrallah, held a series of meetings with the organization’s highest level military command, as well as field commanders and operational-level commanders responsible for preparing Hizbullah’s military force for war with Israel. Nasrallah updated his commanders on regional developments, the situation in Lebanon, and on Hizbullah’s internal and organizational affairs. Nasrallah emphasized the supreme importance of maintaining the organization’s field security, given U.S. and Israeli intelligence organizations’ successes in penetrating Hizbullah and recruiting individuals holding sensitive posts. The exposure of agents within Hizbullah was profoundly unsettling to Nasrallah and the other leaders.

According to a source close to Hizbullah, Nasrallah’s operational directive to the commanders was to prepare for the fact that in the next military conflict with Israel, Hizbullah will hit Tel Aviv with missiles at the outset of the war, while also dispatching forces to conquer the Galilee. The source stressed that this is an operational directive and not a matter of psychological warfare.

Hizbullah’s conclusion from the lessons of the Second Lebanon War is that, next time, Israel will have no red lines in waging all-out war against Lebanon and Hizbullah. Hence, Hizbullah is planning “many surprises” that will change the force equation with Israel both at the start of the conflict and during its operational phase.¹

The Operational Plan 

The operational plan to conquer the Galilee was first aired in Nasrallah’s announcement on 16 February 2011, as part of events marking the third anniversary of the assassination of Hizbullah commander-in-chief Imad Mughniyeh. Nasrallah told his fighters to be prepared for the fact that, should Israel launch a war against Hizbullah, they will be conquering the Galilee. Since that announcement, Hizbullah forces have been training and preparing to carry out Nasrallah’s order. This preparation includes:

• Identifying landing sites for Israeli helicopters where explosive charges have been laid and dispersed.

• Deploying substantial rocket and artillery firepower in areas Hizbullah does not see as suitable for guerrilla warfare, mainly in parts of the Bekaa Valley.

• Visits by commanders to the front, which have included delegations of military experts headed by Haj Zu Alfikar. He is none other than Mustafa Badr Aldin, Mughniyeh’s replacement as the most senior security-military figure in Hizbullah, who is continuing to act despite an extradition order against him for the murder of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The senior military delegation visited the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon.

• The end of a series of intensive training sessions for some 727 fighters in Iran, who learned new combat methods for guerrilla and special commando units.

• The completion of courses for operators of advanced missiles and anti-tank weapons. Here it was said that Hizbullah had equipped itself with “smart” Iranian anti-tank missiles that can disrupt the defensive systems of Merkava tanks on the way to striking them.

The military scenario for which Hizbullah forces trained is the firing of at least ten thousand missiles, right at the war’s outset, at military and strategic targets such as airfields, military camps, and vital facilities including maritime ones, followed by the firing of rockets from launch sites whose location will come as a surprise to Israel.

The Operational Plan to Conquer the Galilee

The source said that the operational plan Hizbullah has formulated in tandem with senior Iranian strategic experts is based on using a force of five thousand fighters who have recently trained in Iran, particularly in the context of this plan. Another report said that in recent weeks Hizbullah forces had completed intensive training in Iran and had been deployed in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. It was further reported that in the area of Maydon in the western Bekaa Valley, Hizbullah engineering units had finished excavation work and the improvement of positions, while engineering units of the Iranian army had mined areas in the eastern Bekaa Valley that were seen as possible landing sites for Israeli special forces tasked with attacking Hizbullah’s missile and artillery deployment.²

The source close to Hizbullah said its fighting force would number five brigades, each consisting of a thousand fighters. Each brigade has a designated combat zone in northern Israel that it is tasked with taking over. Each brigade is familiar with the layout and special topographical conditions of its sector and has trained to conquer it.

• Brigade 1 will take over the town of Nahariya or parts of it, after crossing the border in the area of Rosh Hanikra. According to Hizbullah information, means of protection in that area are meager, the distance is small (seven kilometers), and there are no military capabilities or special topography that will retard the unit in achieving its goal. Concurrently, a force of 150 fighters from the first brigade will reach Nahariya by sea in speedboats that Hizbullah already possesses. This force’s mission is to take as many hostages as possible so as to prevent Israel from bombing the Hizbullah forces in this sector.

• Brigade 2 will take over the town of Shlomi, which has 6,500 residents and is about 300 meters from the border. The aim is to cut the IDF’s supply lines and force it to send reinforcements from the east.

• Brigade 3 was ordered to reach the town of Carmiel and conquer areas south of it with the aim of blocking traffic from Acre, on the Mediterranean coast, to Safed.

• Brigade 4 will take over the communities of Malkiya, Ramot Naftali and Yiftach in order to prevent the IDF from firing from these areas into southern Lebanon.

• Brigade 5 will serve as a strategic reserve force for special missions.

Syria

Hizbullah is discussing the question of whether Bashar Assad will take part in the war, and is not excluding this possibility, particularly in light of Syria’s domestic situation. On 27 October 2011 the newspaper Al Akhbar, which is close to Hizbullah, disclosed that Nasrallah had met with Assad a few days earlier in Damascus. It said Nasrallah had come to explain to Assad why Hizbullah insists that the Lebanese government stop contributing to the funding of the international investigatory commission (the STL) on former Lebanese premier Hariri’s murder. Assad, according to the paper, did not give a clear answer on the issue and only emphasized the need to maintain the Lebanese government’s representation. If such a Nasrallah-Assad meeting indeed occurred, it can reasonably be assumed that the subject of a military conflict with Israel was central to it.³

A day after the article appeared in Al Akhbar, the paper published a correction saying the Nasrallah-Assad meeting had not occurred and apologizing for the error.⁴ It should be stressed that the paper is very close to Hizbullah and not infrequently serves as Nasrallah’s mouthpiece. It is hard to imagine that it would publish a detailed report of this meeting, including specific quotations, against Hizbullah’s wishes. It could be that, on second thought, Hizbullah decided the timing of the article was unwise. As Assad kills his people, Hizbullah faces bitter criticism for supporting him and is losing its standing in the Arab street. Indeed, since the reports in the Lebanese press on Hizbullah’s operational plan and preparations to implement it, Hizbullah has in no way related to these matters either directly or indirectly.

Summary

Nasrallah’s recent escalation of public statements on concrete targets for the next war – rocket fire on Tel Aviv at its outset and the conquest of the Galilee, along with the completion of military preparations – do not come in a vacuum. They stem from heightened fear in Hizbullah that an Israeli and/or American attack on Iran is drawing nearer. Hence, as a strategic arm of Iran that sees itself as Iran’s first line of defense against Israel, Hizbullah is seeking, with Iran’s help, to deter Israel. This explains Nasrallah’s care in emphasizing that he is not referring to an offensive thrust by Hizbullah but, rather, a harsh response to an Israeli move that would engulf Lebanon in war. But even if what is envisaged is a reaction by Hizbullah, let alone a surprise move by Nasrallah, it is important to see the picture as reflected in Hizbullah’s vision.

*     *     *

Notes

1. Al Joumhouria, 27 October 2011.

2. Al Shiraa, 27 October 2011.

3. Al Akhbar,  27October 2001.

4. Al Akhbar, 28 October 2011.

*     *     *

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira is a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 2, 2011, 3:00 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli Air Force F-16s

Wednesday, Nov. 2, shortly after announcing the successful test launch from the Palmachim base of a new, intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, Israel disclosed in unusual detail a joint Israeli-Italian air exercise ending last Friday, Nov. 29, at Sardinia.

Foreign sources identified the ICBM as an upgraded Jericho 3 said able to deliver a 750-kilo nuclear warhead to a distance of 7,000 kilometers – further, if fitted with a smaller warhead. Western intelligence experts estimate that 42 missiles with conventional warheads are enough to seriously disable Iran’s main nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and Arak.

As for Iran’s newest subterranean Fordo facility near Qom, the US supplied Israel with GBU-28 bunker busters in the third week of September.

Six IAF squadrons took part in the joint one-week exercise with Italy consisting of fourteen F-16 F-16 single and twin-seaters from the Ramat David air base, joined by Boeing craft for in-flight refueling of war planes, the Eitam (G550) Air Control early warning aircraft and Hercules transports taking off from the Nevatim air base in the Negev.

The Italian air force flew the advanced Eurofighter Typhoon, AMX, Panavia Tornado and F-16s.

After the two releases, the Israel Defense Forces announced Wednesday that a large-scale exercise had just begun to prepare central Israel for missile attack.

This rush of military activity coincided with speculative reports splashed across Israeli media in the last fortnight that Israeli leaders are in mid-debate over whether or not to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Those reports are unfounded, debkafile‘s military sources report. Binyamin Netanyahu’s inner cabinet of eight is in fact trying to determine the usefulness of abandoning its longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity at this time. An attack is not on its current agenda.

November promises to be an especially critical month.

The report on Iran the International Atomic Agency in Vienna is due to publish next Tuesday, Nov. 8 is generally expected to reveal in close detail the advances the Islamic Republic has made toward producing a nuclear weapon. Most of this will not be news to the parties which follow Iran’s progress toward this goal. However, the formal exposure of the scale of this program and Iran’s indictment by the nuclear watchdog is intended to shock world opinion, thereby helping US President Barack Obama to go all the way with really tough sanctions, such as international boycotts of Iranian fuel and the Iranian state bank.
Tehran has warned that these sanctions would be deemed an act of war.

Western intelligence experts as well debkafile‘s Iran watchers believe that the Iranian leadership will not be content with statements refuting the IAEA report but will opt for a more active response. They suggest Tehran may lift the veil over a section of its nuclear achievements, as though to say: Enough of this nuclear hide-and-seek; we are about to be a nuclear power like just like Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
Tehran may also conduct a complete or partial nuclear test, or else exhibit a new ballistic capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

These steps might be designed to give President Obama pause. Because Tehran would calculate that if it has already crossed the nuclear threshold, what would be the point of tough sanctions?
At the same time, Tehran has made the necessary preparations for counteracting the impact of drastic penalties with the help of Russia, China and to a lesser extent India. Nearly all Iranian oil deals are now channeled through a Russian-Iranian sales mechanism operating in Moscow and out of American and Western reach. Russian banks are handling Iran’s international financial transactions in currencies other than the US dollar – mostly the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan.

However, Iran’s leaders are still weighing their response to the IAEA report and have not yet decided finally how to treat the new sanctions President Obama may have up his sleeve. The tense debates afoot in Washington and Jerusalem over how to handle the volatile scenario ahead have not missed Tehran.
Syria is another complicating factor and poses hard dilemma:

This is because Bashar Assad’s continued crackdown on protest with dozens of deaths caused day by day on both sides of the conflict could at any moment galvanize Tehran into radical action in the wake of the nuclear controversy. Counter-responses by the West and Israel could light the fuse of a regional war.

In these circumstances, a damaging IAEA report on Iran would do more than expose its nuclear misconduct; it could bring the Middle East dangerously close to a regional conflict.

In the last two weeks, therefore, Western governments led by the US as well as Israel have been turning over their options for urgent decisions on how to react to potential Iranian aggression.

The Israeli media’s portrayal of the debate within the cabinet in Jerusalem as an argument between two ministerial factions for and against attacking Iran is false, designed to assault the judgment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
It is also seriously detrimental to Israel’s security.

In an angry statement Wednesday, Nov. 2, Minister of Intelligence Dan Meridor condemned those reports as irresponsible and more damaging even than the betrayal by the Israeli soldier Anat Kamm of secret military documents to an unauthorized person for which she was given jail time this week. The more publicity given this non-existent debate, he said, the edgier Damascus and Tehran will become and the closer to warlike steps. It also has an undesirable effect on Iran’s nuclear decision-making and the severity of Assad’s campaign of suppression.

Military action against Iran, alone or with US support, is therefore not Israel’s current agenda, although an ever-present option.The subject under discussion, debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources stress, is what to do if the nuclear watchdog’s revelations next Tuesday demonstrate that Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon is too far advanced to stop and a nuclear-armed Iran is therefore close to reality.
The cabinet is consequently trying to decide whether the time has come for Israel to come clean on its presumed nuclear capability, or stay silent and back Washington on the imposition of sanctions, knowing that their deterrent value has dropped to nil.

An indirect answer to this question was provided Wednesday by the test launch of the Jericho 3 ballistic missile. Israel’s military censor allowed the local media to report “from foreign sources” that the missile is nuclear-capable, indicating that the Netanyahu government may well be approaching a decision on nuclear exposure.

IDF to hold mass exercise in the Dan Region – JPost – Headlines.

he IDF Home Front Command was set to conduct a wide-scale exercise in the center of the country Wednesday and Thursday. Slated to participate in the exercise were search and rescue units, biological and chemical units of the Home Front Command, and civilian emergency services of Israel Police, firefighters, Magen David Adom and national emergency service personnel.

The public should expect to see heavy traffic of emergency and security service vehicles in the following areas:

On Wednesday, an exercise will take place at the Yamit 2000 parking lot in Holon from the evening hours until the early morning.

On Thursday, at 10:05 a.m., a civilian evacuation exercise will begin at Kfar Mikve Israel.

On Thursday at 10:05 a.m., a mobile clinic will be erected at the Country Club Holon.

Also on Thursday at 10:05 a.m., a test siren will be sounded throughout the Dan Region in the following cities: Tel Aviv, Holon, Bat Yam, Azor, Ramat Gan, Givatayim, Bnei Brak, Givat Shmuel, Kiryat Ono, Ganei Tikva, Savion, Yehud and Or Yehuda.

Sirens may also be heard in the following cities: Ramat Hasharon, Petah Tikva, Gat Rimon, Kfar Ma’ash, Be’erot Yitzhak, Bnei Atarot, Beit Dagan and Rishon Lezion.

The siren will be sounded for 90 seconds. If an actual emergency siren is sounded, a second siren will take place and the announcement will be made through the media.

All of the current press hysteria about a potential Israeli attack on Iran combined with this morning’s successful test of an enhanced Jericho 3 rocket, reminded me of a post I made a year and a half ago in June 2010.  At the time, there was another frenzy going on that an attack was immanent. 

One of the main obstacles to the use of an EMP bomb against Iran would be that it would remove the “nuclear ambiguity” that Israel has maintained over the last four decades.  However, if Debka’s report that Israel is considering ending that ambiguity has any validity, then the use of EMP to wipe out Iran’s nuclear program as well as it’s capability to retaliate, makes even more sense now than it did then.

I have reproduced my June 2010 post below. – JW

_____________________________________________________________

The Time Has Come…

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose…”

Kris Kristofferson’s lyrics to his classic song Bobby McGee have never been more appropriate than they are right now to an Israel facing a soon to become nuclear Iran.

Any hope that the West, led by the US and Barak Obama would succeed in preventing this terrifying threat to world order have by now been completely dashed.  The hysteria over Israel’s enforcement of it’s blockade against the Iranian proxy Hamas, removes all doubt that the West will find any and all excuses to avoid confronting the threat posed to the world by radical Islam.

The parallels to the catastrophic “appeasement” policy towards Nazi Germany prior to 1939 are more than an exaggerated overstatement.  In many ways the parallels are frighteningly similar.

Germany, a country of 78 million in 1939 laid before the world its dream of an Aryan empire that would last a thousand years.  They also blamed all the troubles of the world on the Jews and promised to put an end to them.

The West stood by and did nothing as the Nazis built up the most powerful war machine in the world in contravention to the Versailles treaty.  What resulted was the greatest cataclysm in the history of the world.

Iran today,  also a country of 78 million  has announced its intentions to bring the world under the domination of Islamic sharia law.  It also blames the Jews for all the troubles in the world, although it includes the US as well.  While its war machine cannot compare to that of the US, its acquisition of nuclear weapons would make it safe from any retaliation for its continuing and increasing support for terrorism world wide.

Look at the reaction to the direct act of war by North Korea in its unprovoked sinking of the South Korean destroyer.  While North Korea blithely denies having committed the act, they threaten the Korean peninsula with war if any response is made against them.

Other than mealy mouthed tut-tutting, what has been the response of the civilized world?  Nothing at all.  Nor will there be for the very simple reason that the North has nuclear weapons.

Understand that this is the very reason Iran is so intent on acquiring these weapons at any cost.  They know that it will insure the survival of their corrupt and hated regime against any and all threats whether from without or within.

Israel at this point has nothing left to lose by putting an end to this Iranian threat once and for all.  The endless pundits and military analysts who claim that the most Israel can do is slow down their progress for a few years do so out of their ignorance of the power of EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse).

A nuclear based EMP weapon launched on a Jericho III missile and detonated 150 miles above Iran would cause no casualties whatsoever to the people on the ground.  What it would do is destroy all electrical based equipment from radios to trucks to power grids to tanks to missiles to centrifuges.

The destruction is not temporary, it is permanent.  Every circuit board and electrical switching device in Iran would have to be replaced.  The net effect would be to remove Iran as a military threat on any level whatsoever for a minimum of one to two decades.

No more threats against the straights of Hormuz; their navy simply won’t function.  Their nuclear program would be permanently stopped dead its tracks.

The negative result would be an enormous humanitarian crisis as the basics for the functioning of a modern society in Iran would be wiped out.  The entire world would have to pitch in to help the Iranian people survive the loss of their 21st century technology.

However, the cost of doing this and the unavoidable suffering that would result pales in comparison to the potential for true Armageddon should the radical Islamic mullahs gain the power of nuclear weapons.

Of course Israel would be roundly condemned by the entire world for taking this action, the same way it was when it destroyed Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor.  Nonetheless, underneath the condemnation would be the biggest sigh of relief the world has ever experienced.  The only powers that would be truly upset by such an action would be Iran’s terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and perhaps also North Korea.

Israel is a small country, but a great and powerful one at the same time.  Golda Meir is quoted as saying, “We Jews have a secret weapon in our struggle with the Arabs; we have no place to go.”  That remains the truth to this day.  While the Western nations look the other way while Iran develops the power to destroy the Jewish state, Israel does not have that luxury.

The time has come to put an end to radical Islam’s threat to the world.  Almost every violent struggle in the world today has at its root this atavistic and intolerant ideology whose world leader and main source of funding worldwide is Iran.

It is a very frightening choice for Israel to make.  The sad truth is that the weak-willed and hypocritical governments of the world have forced Israel’s hand.  It is no longer a choice, it is a necessity.

The time has come…

Joseph Wouk
June 3, 2010

Israel Air Force conducts drills for long-range attacks – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

While the media and political sphere is abuzz with news on a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear development facilities, the Israel Air Force conducts comprehensive drills on long-range attacks at Italy NATO base.

By Anshel Pfeffer

While the media and political sphere is abuzz with news on a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear development facilities, the Israel Air Force continues conducting comprehensive drills on long-range attacks.

The last drill of this sort took place last week at the NATO base in Italy, in which six different types of air force squadrons participated. The drill was widely covered on websites around the world that specialize in aviation.

	Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.
	Photo by: Stefano Sitzia

Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.Stefano Sitzia

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The drill included most of the aviation components that are likely to take part in future long-range attacking missions: combat squadrons, aerial refueling and air monitoring stations.

That Sunday, several IAF planes arrived at the Italian Decimomannu air base on the Sardinia island of Italy. This base is considered to be one of NATO’s training bases. The advanced investigative system that exists at the base allows fighter jets of various air forces to conduct military air-drills, following which they can assess and analyze the performance of various pilots. In the past few years, the IAF has increasingly carried out drills at the Decimomannu air base, especially since it stopped flying in Turkey’s air space due to recent diplomatic tensions between the two states.

Israel’s fighter jets participated in air combat drills against the Eurofighter planes of the Italian air force, Tornado planes of the German air force (Luftwaffe) and F-16 planes of the Dutch air force.

Normally, long-range drills last two weeks, but the IAF left this drill after five days, and by the weekend all the IAF planes had returned to their air bases in Israel.

The IAF’s early departure ignited the spreading of conspiracy theories which suggested Israel was heading into a possible mission, but according to a senior IAF official, the departure was not sudden and spontaneous, rather a short visit planned from the start, due to time constraints of the Italian and Israeli air forces.

קראו כתבה זו בעברית: חיל האוויר תירגל תקיפה לטווח ארוך

	Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.
	Photo by: Stefano Sitzia

	Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.
	Photo by: Stefano Sitzia

	Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.
	Photo by: Stefano Sitzia

	Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.
	Photo by: Stefano Sitzia

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 2, 2011, 1:33 PM (GMT+02:00)

Jericho 3

Wednesday,Nov. 2, Israel successfully test-fired from the Palmachim base a new, intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Foreign sources identified the ICBM as an upgraded Jericho 3 said able to deliver a 750-kilo nuclear warhead to a distance of 7,000 kilometers – or further, if fitted with a smaller warhead. Western intelligence experts estimate that 42 missiles with conventional warheads are enough to seriously disable Iran’s main nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and Arak.

As for Iran’s newest subterranean Fordo facility near Qom, the US supplied Israel with GBU-28 bunker busters in the third week of September.
The ICBM test was carried out amid speculative reports splashed across Israeli media in the last fortnight that Israeli leaders are in mid-debate over whether or not to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Those reports are unfounded, debkafile‘s military sources report. Binyamin Netanyahu’s inner cabinet of eight is in fact trying to determine the usefulness of abandoning its longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity at this time. An attack is not on its current agenda.

November promises to be an especially critical month.

The report on Iran the International Atomic Agency in Vienna is due to publish next Tuesday, Nov. 8 is generally expected to reveal in close detail the advances the Islamic Republic has made toward producing a nuclear weapon. Most of this will not be news to the parties which follow Iran’s progress toward this goal. However, the formal exposure of the scale of this program and Iran’s indictment by the nuclear watchdog is intended to shock world opinion, thereby helping US President Barack Obama to go all the way with really tough sanctions, such as international boycotts of Iranian fuel and the Iranian state bank.
Tehran has warned that these sanctions would be deemed an act of war.

Western intelligence experts as well debkafile‘s Iran watchers believe that the Iranian leadership will not be content with statements refuting the IAEA report but will opt for a more active response. They suggest Tehran may lift the veil over a section of its nuclear achievements, as though to say: Enough of this nuclear hide-and-seek; we are about to be a nuclear power like just like Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
Tehran may also conduct a complete or partial nuclear test, or else exhibit a new ballistic capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

These steps might be designed to give President Obama pause. Because Tehran would calculate that if it has already crossed the nuclear threshold, what would be the point of tough sanctions?
At the same time, Tehran has made the necessary preparations for counteracting the impact of drastic penalties with the help of Russia, China and to a lesser extent India. Nearly all Iranian oil deals are now channeled through a Russian-Iranian sales mechanism operating in Moscow and out of American and Western reach. Russian banks are handling Iran’s international financial transactions in currencies other than the US dollar – mostly the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan.

However, Iran’s leaders are still weighing their response to the IAEA report and have not yet decided finally how to treat the new sanctions President Obama may have up his sleeve. The tense debates afoot in Washington and Jerusalem over how to handle the volatile scenario ahead have not missed Tehran.
Syria is another complicating factor and poses hard dilemma:

This is because Bashar Assad’s continued crackdown on protest with dozens of deaths caused day by day on both sides of the conflict could at any moment galvanize Tehran into radical action in the wake of the nuclear controversy. Counter-responses by the West and Israel could light the fuse of a regional war.

In these circumstances, a damaging IAEA report on Iran would do more than expose its nuclear misconduct; it could bring the Middle East dangerously close to a regional conflict.

In the last two weeks, therefore, Western governments led by the US as well as Israel have been turning over their options for urgent decisions on how to react to potential Iranian aggression.

The Israeli media’s portrayal of the debate within the cabinet in Jerusalem as an argument between two ministerial factions for and against attacking Iran is false, designed to assault the judgment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
It is also seriously detrimental to Israel’s security.

In an angry statement Wednesday, Nov. 2, Minister of Intelligence Dan Meridor condemned those reports as irresponsible and more damaging even than the betrayal by the Israeli soldier Anat Kamm of secret military documents to an unauthorized person for which she was given jail time this week. The more publicity given this non-existent debate, he said, the edgier Damascus and Tehran will become and the closer to warlike steps. It also has an undesirable effect on Iran’s nuclear decision-making and the severity of Assad’s campaign of suppression.

Military action against Iran, alone or with US support, is therefore not Israel’s current agenda, although an ever-present option.The subject under discussion, debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources stress, is what to do if the nuclear watchdog’s revelations next Tuesday demonstrate that Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon is too far advanced to stop and a nuclear-armed Iran is therefore close to reality.
The cabinet is consequently trying to decide whether the time has come for Israel to come clean on its presumed nuclear capability, or stay silent and back Washington on the imposition of sanctions, knowing that their deterrent value has dropped to nil.

An indirect answer to this question was provided Wednesday by the test launch of the Jericho 3 ballistic missile. Israel’s military censor allowed the local media to report “from foreign sources” that the missile is nuclear-capable, indicating that the Netanyahu government may well be approaching a decision on nuclear exposure.

Israel successfully launches rocket from Palma… JPost – Defense.

    Israel carried out a test launch of a rocket propulsion system from the Palmachim Air Force Base Wednesday morning.

The smoke trail from the launch was seen by many residents of central Israel in the morning sky.

The Defense Ministry said that the experiment had been planned long in advance and that it had ended successfully. No further details were available.

A Defense Ministry official declined to comment on the type of rocket tested. But Israel Radio’s military affairs correspondent said a ballistic missile was launched.

In 2008, a two-stage, long-range ballistic missile was successfully test-fired.

Israel is widely believed to have Jericho missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, civilian “Shavit” rockets used to launch satellites and the Arrow missile interceptor, according to Reuters.

Reuters contributed to this report