WarSclerotic

Peres sends condolences to Turkey in name of… JPost – Headlines.

By JPOST.COM STAFF
10/23/2011 19:00

    President Shimon Peres telephoned Turkish President Abdullah Gul Sunday and offered him Israeli aid following a massive earthquake that may have killed up to 1,000 people. The president also sent his condolences for those killed in the quake.

Peres told his Turkish counterpart, “The State of Israel shares your pain in the aftermath of the earthquake.” He added, “I am speaking as a human, as a Jew and as an Israeli who remembers and is well aware of the historic ties between our peoples. It is from that place that I send, in the name of my entire people, condolences to the families of those killed.”

At this difficult time, he added, Israel “is prepared to offer any aid that is needed, anywhere in Turkey at any time.”

Hillary Clinton To Iran: Don’t Misread Departure From Iraq.

Israel offers aid to Turkey in wake of massive earthquake – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Defense Minister Barak instructs top official to contact Ankara, despite the deep diplomatic crisis that has engulfed the two nations in recent years.

By Barak Ravid

Israel has offered to aid the Turkish government in any way it can after a massive earthquake that shook the Turkish southeast, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Sunday.

An earthquake measuring 7.3 in magnitude hit near Van in southeastern Turkey earlier Sunday, with state-run media initially reporting some buildings had collapsed and 50 people had been injured.

	Survivors reacting as the rescue workers try to save people trapped under debris after an earthquake in Tabanli village near the eastern Turkish city of Van October 23, 2011.
	Photo by: Reuters

Turkey’s Kandilli Observatory estimated a few hours after the earthquake struck that some 500 to 1,000 people were killed.

The Geophysical Institute of Israel indicated that the quake was also felt in residential high rises in central Tel Aviv.

Following word of the massive jolt, Barak instructed the head of the Defense Ministry’s diplomatic-security bureau, Amos Gilad, to contact Turkish officials and offer then “any aid that they may need.”

Meanwhile, Foreign Ministry officials have also initiated contact with Ankara in order to estimate the extent of aid required, if at all.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor indicated that, following orders by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, he had contacted Turkish authorities, saying that “Israel’s embassy in Ankara had already issued the offer to Turkish officials.”

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz instructed the IDF’s Home Front Command to prepare for the possible launching of a special delegation to the Turkish disaster zone.

Ties between Israel and Turkey have taken a dramatic turn for the worse ever since Israel’s raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla, which resulted in the death of nine Turkish nationals.

Israel has repeatedly refused to apologize for the incident, since it viewed the flotilla as a Turkey-sponsored provocation.

However, despite recent tensions, Turkey offered its aid during a massive wildfire which consumed a large part of Israel’s Carmel region late last year, eventually sending several firefighting aircraft.

Get serious with Iran – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Tepid White House response to Iranian plot will reassure Iran that US is a paper tiger

Matthew RJ Brodsky

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 23, 2011, 12:58 PM (GMT+02:00)

On their way out

Ten days have gone by since President Barack Obama accused Iran of instigating a foiled plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington last April. Yet neither the US nor Saudi Arabia has done anything about it – even at the UN.
Friday, Oct. 21, Obama reaffirmed that all US soldiers will be brought home from Iraq by the end of the year. Two days later, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged in Tajikistan: “To countries in the region, especially Iraq’s neighbors, we want to emphasize that American will stand with our allies and friends, including Iraq, in defense of our common security and interests.”

She spoke as the Obama administration was preparing to pull out of Iraq, leaving in Baghdad a government and national army incapable of defending the country against widening cycles of terror, headed by a prime minister under Tehran’s thumb and more than 30,000 armed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ terrorist arm, al Qods Brigades, deployed there.
Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is so completely in thrall to Iran that he was afraid to accede to Washington’s insistent demand for immunity to be extended to at least 5,000 US soldiers remaining in Iraq, although left on his own he would have been inclined to do so.
The eight-year US military presence in Iraq ends therefore leaving Iran sitting pretty on its two key strategic goals:

1. The exit of American soldiers, whose presence in Iraq since the 2003 invasion was deemed in Tehran a continuous threat to its borders. US military involvement in Afghanistan is seen in the same light.

2.  A weak Shiite-led government in place in Baghdad, heavily dependent on Tehran’s will. Torn by strife among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, Iraq is in no state to obstruct Iran’s hegemonic plans for the Persian Gulf and Syria.

The Iranian regime’s right hand for achieving those goals was – and is – Al Qods commander Lt. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the man also accused by Washington of masterminding the assassination plot.

Washington is well aware of Soleimani’s capacity for interfering with American interests. Indeed he crows about it.

Last July, US sources leaked a message he posted in 2008 to Gen. David Petraeus, then head of US Central Command and now CIA Director: “General Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan. And indeed, the ambassador in Baghdad is a Quds Force member. The individual who’s going to replace him is a Quds Force member.”

He was flaunting his control of Baghdad at American expense.
Since then, he has expanded this control, debkafile‘s military sources report, by injecting 30,000 al Qods fighting personnel into Iraq, all trained in guerrilla tactics to the standards of Western and Middle East elite units.

At least half are deployed in Baghdad in the guise of bodyguard units Iraqi government members and political figures have hired from local firms. Most of the Shiite figures in government and parliament are now using al Qods details for protection. This makes the easily vulnerably to manipulation from Tehran.

Today, Al Qods has the run of Baghdad’s Green Zone, the top-security enclave built a cost of billions of American dollars to keep the US embassy and high commands in Iraq and its seat of government safe from terrorist bombs.
After the US military drawdown in just over two months, the 16,000 US embassy staffers remain in the Green Zone, including 5,000 security officers from civilian contractors.

They will stand eyeball to eyeball with a like number of al Qods operatives defending the pro-Iranian Iraqi government. It is on this jarring note that America is about to end its war in Iraq.

Israeli official: Cyprus military drills not meant to ‘send message’ to Turkey – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Israeli source tells Cyprus Mail that its plan to hold military exercised in Cyprus airspace is routine for the Israeli military and there is no political agenda behind it.

By Haaretz

An Israeli official said on Saturday that there was no political agenda behind its decision to hold a military drill in Cyprus airspace, denying allegations it way trying to “send a message” to Turkey, Cyprus’s longtime enemy, the Cyprus Mail reported.

Tensions have been high between Israel and Turkey after Israel refused to apologize for a deadly flotilla raid last year, in which Israeli commandos killed nine Turkish citizens.

The United Nations released a report last month stating that the soldiers acted in self defense and Israel’s blockade on Gaza is legal, prompting a further escalation in tensions between two countries and the removal of Israel’s diplomatic presence in Turkey.

“Air force exercises over our allies’ air space are routine for the Israeli military and there is no political agenda behind this,” an Israeli source told the Cyprus Mail.

The Nicosia Defense Ministry’s acting spokesperson, Andreas Tyrimos denied participation in the drills. “The Defence Ministry is not participating in any exercises,” he said according to the report.

	In this Dec. 26, 2010 file photo, the Mavi Mara ship returns to Istanbul, Turkey.
	Photo by: AP

Report: Israel, Cyprus to hold joint military exercise – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Turkish media says Jerusalem, Nicosia to hold aerial maneuvers next week; blames both for trying to ‘send menacing message’ to Ankara over its prolonged tensions with Israel, mineral resources dispute with Cyprus

Ynet

Ashton: Nuclear talks with Iran … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

(Feels like a “last chance” offer is being made. – JW)

    VIENNA – Major powers are willing to meet with Iran within weeks if Tehran is prepared to “engage seriously in meaningful discussions” on its disputed nuclear program, the European Union’s foreign policy chief said in a letter to Tehran on Friday.

“When moving to continuation of our talks, it is crucial to look for concrete results,” Catherine Ashton said in the letter addressed to Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

“We have to ensure that when we meet again we can make real progress on the nuclear issue so that both sides can draw concrete benefits,” said the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters.

Ashton has been handling contacts with Iran on behalf of six powers, which include the United States, Britain, France and Germany as well as non-Western states Russia and China.

In September Jalili sent a letter to Ashton saying that Iran was ready to hold fresh talks “for cooperation on common issues.” In the letter, he also made it clear that Tehran has no intention of backing down on its “rights” in the nuclear row with the West.

Jalili spoke of the “necessity of achieving a comprehensive, long-term and negotiated solution for both sides.”

But he also stated that any “measures that would lead to the deprivation” of countries’ rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “including the noble nation of Iran is unacceptable.”

Arab World: A cold war re-em… JPost – Features – Week in review.

    Winston Churchill, speaking in the British House of Commons in 1922, discussed the transformative effect of the 1914-18 war on Europe. “Great empires have been overturned,” he said. “The whole map has changed, the modes of thought of men, the whole outlook on affairs.” But, he continued, “as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short, we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.” Churchill was referring to the durability of the Irish question.

A sense of the weary re-emergence of previous patterns is apparent also in the revelations of the Iranian plot to kill Saudi ambassador Adel Jubair in Washington. The plot’s revelation casts the spotlight on a crucial fact underlying the upheavals that have shaken the Arab world this year: Namely, for all the sound and fury that the ‘Arab Spring’ has wrought, the underlying strategic contours of the Middle East remain largely unchanged. As the wave of popular discontent begins to draw back, so these structures are once again becoming apparent.

The contest between Iran and Saudi Arabia formed the central dynamic in the larger regional cold war which has defined the Middle East in recent years. Iran has sought very publicly in recent years to build its regional popularity through enmity toward Israel. But the primary strategic ambitions of the Islamic Republic are directed not westward toward the Mediterranean – but rather southward, toward the Persian Gulf. Iran is the most populous country of the Gulf region, with the largest army. It sees domination of this area as a matter of manifest destiny. Tehran seeks to replace the United States as the guarantor of the security of Gulf energy routes. This ambition by its very nature brings it into a situation of conflict with the main beneficiary of that American guarantee – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

This core geo-strategic basis to Iranian-Saudi enmity is reinforced and deepened by the stark sectarian and ideological divide between the two countries. Saudi Arabia holds to an ultra-conservative interpretation of Sunni Islam which demonizes Shia Muslims.

Riyadh has long scorned the Iranian regime as a purveyor of fitna (discord) in the Muslim world.

Ayatollah Khomeini, meanwhile, described the Saudi monarchy unambiguously as “heretics” and “vile and ungodly Wahhabis.”

Saudi-Iranian rivalries have underlain a number of recent central events in the region – some related to the so-called “Arab Spring,” some clearly separate.

When the Shia majority in Bahrain proved restive, the Saudis discerned Iranian fingerprints. A new regime in Bahrain aligned with Tehran would mean Iranian control of the western littoral of the Persian Gulf. The uprising was also interpreted as the beginning of an Iranian attempt to spread Shia sedition southwards toward the majority Shia Saudi eastern province. The Saudis led a military expedition to crush the revolt in its infancy.

In Syria, the Saudis see the uprising as an attempt by a Sunni Arab people to throw off the yoke of an Iran-backed, heretical regime.

Through his maternal line, Saudi King Abdullah has close kinship ties with Sunni clans in Syria.

Riyadh discerns a strategic opportunity in Assad’s current travails.

The Iranians too understand the disastrous implications for them of the danger to the Assad regime, and are consequently making every effort to preserve it. The Saudis were the first Arab country to remove their ambassador from Syria, and to denounce Assad.

There are reports of Saudi links to radical Sunni preachers in Syria.

In Lebanon, of course, members of the Iranian client Hezbollah organization are wanted by the tribunal investigating the 2005 murder of Saudi citizen and former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al- Hariri. The Saudi-backed March 14 movement in the country was eclipsed by the pro-Iranian forces after a brief clash in May/June 2008. Yet, by backing the opposition to the Assad regime in Syria, Riyadh hopes to cut Hezbollah off from its hinterland and source of weaponry, leaving it dangerously isolated on the Mediterranean.

In Iraq, with the US set to leave, the Saudis and the Iranians are once again set to face each other.

The Shia-led government in Baghdad already enjoys close relations with Tehran. Iran also sponsors powerful Shia militia groups.

Riyadh, meanwhile, has actively funded Sunni insurgents. The presence of US troops in Iraq was a disincentive to more overt support.

With an increasingly pro-Iranian Shia government in Baghdad this disincentive will no longer apply.

The Iranians are by far the stronger of the two rivals. They have compromised their ‘brand’ in the Arab world through their support for the Assad regime in Syria. This, however, could be rapidly reversed in the wake of new confrontations with the US or Israel. Their nuclear program is proceeding apace. The Tehran regime looks safe in its seat at home. It still possesses powerful assets across the region.

The Saudis, by contrast, can offer a credible barrier to Iranian ambitions only as part of a larger, de facto alliance including the US and Israel.

The Saudi-Iranian cold war was one of the factors defining the Middle East prior to the upheavals of 2011. It has been a significant element in determining the course of those upheavals so far. In Bahrain and in Syria, the Saudis are winning. Iranian anger and frustration at Riyadh and a desire to strike at it should therefore come as no surprise. As the deluge subsides, the dreary minarets of Riyadh and Tehran are emerging once again.

Gadhafi’s killing fuels Syria’s Friday protests – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

At least 13 anti-Assad protesters killed by Syrian security forces, mostly in Homs and Hama; demonstrators chant ‘Gadhafi is finished. It is your turn now Bashar!’

By Reuters

The killing of Libya’s Muammar Gadhafi fuelled demonstrations across Syria after Friday prayers that called for the ouster of President Bashar Assad, braving a heavier than normal security presence, activists and residents said.

Syrian forces shot dead on Friday at least 13 anti-Assad protesters, according to activists and residents.

	Bashar Assad and Muammar Gadhafi, March 2005.
	Photo by: AP

Most of the killings were in the central city of Homs and in Hama to the north, scene of some of the largest military operations in a crackdown on the seven month uprising, where a nascent insurgent movement has also emerged, they said.

“Gadhafi is finished. It is your turn now Bashar!” shouted demonstrators in the town of Maaret al-Numaan in the northwestern province of Idlib, according to one witness.

“Prepare yourself Assad!” chanted protesters in the town of Tayyana in the tribal province of Deir al-Zor, on the border with Iraq’s Sunni Muslim heartland.

Assad, an ophthalmologist who inherited power from his late father in 2000, strengthened ties with Gadhafi months before the Arab Spring wave of popular unrest against repressive ruling elites erupted in Tunisia in December.

The two countries struck a series of cooperation deals and Assad later allowing a Syrian-based satellite station to broadcast messages from Gadhafi while he was on the run. He was killed in unclear circumstances after his capture on Thursday.

In the town of Houla northwest of Homs, a crowd of several thousands held shoulders and waved old Syrian flags dating to before Assad’s Baath party took power in a coup 48 years ago.

“Doctor, you are next!” read banners carried by the villagers, according to live video footage.

Demonstrations also broke out in Homs, the provincial capital 140 km (85 miles) north of Damascus, where three members of same family were also shot dead at an army road block in Bab Sbaa district on their way to prayers, local activists said.

Syrian authorities say they are fighting “armed terrorist groups” in Homs who have been killing civilians, prominent figures and troops. The authorities have banned most foreign media, making verification of events on the ground difficult.