Archive for October 28, 2011

Syrian forces kill 24, protesters call for protection

October 28, 2011

 

 http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=243530

    AMMAN – Syrian forces shot dead at least 24 civilians on Friday when they fired on demonstrators demanding international protection from President Bashar Assad’s crackdown on seven months of unrest, activists and residents said.

Most of the killings took place in the central cities of Hama, where Assad sent tanks and troops to crush dissent three months ago, and Homs, a center of increasingly armed opposition to his autocratic rule.

“A no-fly zone is a legitimate demand for Homs,” read banners carried by protesters in the Khalidiya neighborhood.

NATO jets played a central role in the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, but the Western alliance has shown no appetite to intervene in Syria to halt violence which the United Nations says has killed 3,000 people.

Syria’s opposition National Council has called for international protection. It has not explicitly requested military intervention, although street protesters have increasingly voiced that demand.

Assad has not used warplanes against protesters and a no-fly zone in itself would have little impact on the crackdown unless – as in the case of Libya – pilots attacked his ground forces and military bases.

The anti-Assad protesters have been energized by Gaddafi’s death last week but their numbers are still well below those seen before a military crackdown in several cities in July.

Authorities also organized big pro-Assad demonstrations this week, with tens of thousands rallying in Damascus and the eastern town of Hasaka on Wednesday, and more pouring onto streets of the Mediterranean city of Latakia on Thursday.

 

Syrian forces kill 24, protesters call for… JPost – Middle East.

Israeli prisoner swap may be prelude to attack on Iran

October 28, 2011

Israeli prisoner swap may be prelude to attack on Iran – Washington Times.

 

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to execute a 1,000-for-1 prisoner exchange last week despite his frequently voiced opposition to such lopsided deals is seen by several Israeli military commentators as an effort to “clear the deck” before possibly undertaking an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Amir Oren, the veteran military analyst for Ha’aretz newspaper, took note of Israel’s exchanging 1,027 Palestinian convicts for army Staff Sgt. Gilad Schalit, who had been captured by Hamas in 2006. Mr. Oren wrote that the price paid by Mr. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak “can be interpreted only in a context that goes beyond that of the Gilad Schalit deal.”

He noted that Israeli leaders in the past have shown a readiness to absorb “a small loss” in order to attain a greater success, generally involving “some sort of military adventure.”

Mr. Oren also noted that, until recently, Mr. Netanyahu had faced opposition to attacking Iran from Army Chief of Staff Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and Mossad intelligence chief Meir Dagan. Both retired earlier this year and have been replaced by men believed to hold a different view on Iran.

Released Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit (second from right) walks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (second from left), Defense Minister Ehud Barak (left) and Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz at the Tel Nof Air base in southern Israel on Oct. 18, 2011. Looking thin, weary and dazed, Schalit returned home Tuesday from more than five years of captivity in the Gaza Strip in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners whose joyful families greeted them with massive celebrations. (Associated Press/Defense Ministry)Released Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit (second from right) walks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (second from left), Defense Minister Ehud Barak (left) and Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz at the Tel Nof Air base in southern Israel on Oct. 18, 2011. Looking thin, weary and dazed, Schalit returned home Tuesday from more than five years of captivity in the Gaza Strip in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners whose joyful families greeted them with massive celebrations. (Associated Press/Defense Ministry)

The Islamic republic has not been a top agenda item since the outbreak of the Arab Spring. Yet Iran’s nuclear program, which Western nations believe is geared for making an atomic bomb, has remained a key concern, despite Tehran’s denials that it is seeking to build a nuclear weapon.

According to Israeli media reports, a shift in the Israeli government’s views on Iran might have prompted Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s Middle East visit in April: His main mission was to pass on a warning from President Obama against any unilateral attack on Iran.

At a press conference with Mr. Barak in April, Mr. Panetta stressed that any steps against Iran’s nuclear program must be taken in coordination with the international community.

This week, Jerusalem Post military correspondent Yakov Katz wrote that, with the Schalit chapter behind it, “Israel can now move forward to deal with some of the other strategic problems it faces in the region, such as Iran’s nuclear program.” Had Israel first attacked Iran, Hamas‘ patron, it would have endangered the Schalit deal, Mr. Katz said.

Writing in Yediot Achronot, Alex Fishman said that for Mr. Netanyahu, who built a political career as a warrior on terror, the Schalit deal was a very courageous step, particularly in view of an estimate by Israel’s security services that 60 percent of Palestinians who are released in such exchanges return to terror.

“He took a risk in a certain area and thereby focused all our attention on much more troubling fronts — in distant Iran and in the Arab revolutions around us,” Mr. Fishman wrote. To deal with these problems, national consensus is necessary and the freeing of Gilad Shalit went far toward achieving that.

Mr. Oren offered another insight that he says may point Mr. Netanyahu toward military action against Iran.

Although the prime minister failed to make any enduring mark on history during his previous term or so far during his present term, Mr. Netanyahu may see Iran as an opportunity to achieve his Churchillian moment, Mr. Oren wrote. “The day is not far off, Netanyahu believes, when Churchill will emerge from him.”

Aid to Turkey continues: 2 cargo flights head to Van

October 28, 2011

Aid to Turkey continues: 2 cargo flights head to Van – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Israel prepares to send off additional aid to quake hit region, plans for additional requests as Turkish politicians continue to stress: ‘We do not mix humanitarian, political issues

Yoav Zitun

Published: 10.28.11, 12:33 / Israel News
The Defense Ministry is continuing in its operation to provide humanitarian aid to thousands of survivors from the Turkish earthquake that hit the eastern region of Van earlier this week.

 

At least two more cargo flights carrying at least 7 mobile homes and additional aid requested by Turkey are expected to take off for Ankara this weekend.

 

In order to ease and speed up the procedures, the mobile homes have already been assembled in Israel so that they can be utilized immediately upon unloading. These structures will be remaining in Turkey and will not be returned to Israel. 
מבנים מוכנים כדי לקצר זמנים (צילום: דוברות משרד הביטחון)

Mobile home units head to Turkey (Photo: Defense Ministry Spokesman)

 

On Tuesday Israel sent the first aid shipment which included five mobile five mobile units, 2,000 fleece coats, 2,000 fleece blankets and 100 inflatable mattresses. The shipment reached Van on Thursday.

 

At this stage, Turkey has said that it is not interested in receiving any medical or search and rescue manpower from Israel and the flights do not include an Israeli delegation other than the flight crew itself. The aid is being transferred through the few Israeli diplomats still remaining in Turkey following the expulsion of Ambassador Gabi Levi following the Gaza flotilla crisis.

 

The Defense Ministry is preparing for the possibility that Turkey will request additional aid shipments and is setting aside a more significant number of mobile home units and equipment. Should Ankara request a more significant aid contribution, then the aid will be loaded up and shipped via cargo ships. 

Meanwhile, Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal stated that there was no change in Turkey’s demands from Israel following Israel’s earthquake aid offer – including an apology over the Gaza flotilla incident. “We do not mix humanitarian issues and political issues, he stressed.

 

Earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu noted that the Israel’s enlistment in the earthquake aid efforts would not lead to a change in relations and that the conditions placed by Turkey for the restoration of diplomatic ties still stand.

 

The earthquake death toll has risen to 570, with 2,555 people injured, the Disaster and Emergency Administration said on Friday.

More deaths reported in Syria crackdown as protesters renew call for no-fly zone

October 28, 2011

More deaths reported in Syria crackdown as protesters renew call for no-fly zone.

Al Arabiya

Demonstrators protesting against President Bashar al-Assad gather in Hula, which is near Homs, to demand an end to his rule. (Reuters)

Demonstrators protesting against President Bashar al-Assad gather in Hula, which is near Homs, to demand an end to his rule. (Reuters)

As many as 35 people have been killed when security forces opened fire at demonstrators on Friday, Al Arabiya reported citing Syrian activists as protesters called for nationwide rallies to demand the imposition of a no-fly zone over Syria to protect civilians.

Demonstrations started after Friday prayers in Hama and Homs despite a heavy military presence, activists and residents said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the fatalities were in the protest hubs of Hama, in the north, and Homs in the center, and that security forces encircled mosques and made arrests before and after weekly Muslim prayers.

“Eight civilians were killed in various neighborhoods of Hama, 11 others in the city of Homs and one civilian was killed in Qusayr, in the region of Homs,” the Observatory said in a statement received by AFP in Nicosia.

The army has been carrying out operations in Qusayr for several weeks, amid fighting there between troops and suspected army deserters, activists say.

“Despite the siege, the proliferation of checkpoints and the encirclement of mosques, people staged a mass demonstration in Kafr Nabl,” a town in Idlib, near the Turkish border, demanding the “imposition of a no-fly zone,” the rights watchdog reported.

The latest bloodletting comes as activists called for nationwide protests on Friday to demand the imposition of a no-fly zone over Syria to protect civilians and to encourage soldiers to defect.

“We call on the international community to impose a no-fly zone so that the Syrian Free Army can function with greater freedom,” said the Syrian Revolution 2011 on its Facebook page.

A defecting army officer who has taken refuge in Turkey, Colonel Riad al-Asaad, claimed in July to have established an opposition armed force called the “Syrian Free Army,” but its strength and numbers are unknown.

Nationwide rallies

Similar rallies took place across Syria after prayers, the activists said. The protests, calling for President Bashar al-Assad to quit, were energized by Qaddafi’s death last week, according to Reuters.

Qaddafi had close links with Assad, who has sent tanks and troops to put down seven months of street protests demanding an end to 41 years of Assad family rule.

An armed insurgency has also emerged in the last several weeks, mainly in rural regions and in Homs, a city of one million, 140 km (85 miles) north of Damascus, where the army and militiamen loyal to Assad have been assaulting old neighborhoods that have been scene of regular protests.

The Assad government says it intends to carry out political reform and that the unrest is fomented by militants trying to wreck the program. More than 1,100 soldiers and policemen have been killed in the violence, it says.

Local residents said helicopters fired machineguns and rockets at residential neighborhoods of Homs this week in an escalation of the military operation. The authorities have barred independent media from the city, making confirmation impossible.

“God, Syria, We want a no-fly zone over it,” shouted protesters in the Bab Tadmur neighborhood of Homs.

“A no-fly zone is a legitimate demand for Homs,” read banners carried by protesters in the Khalidya neighborhood.

In Hama, activists and one resident said Assad loyalists fired at a demonstration demanding his overthrow as soon as it broke out from Abdelrahman Bin Aouf mosque.

“They attacked the protest immediately because the mosque is near the old Hamiuidya neighborhood and they did not want the two protests to meet,” said one activist, who did not want to give his name for fear of persecution.

“Since the military occupied the main square in Hama the protests have been organized in separate neighborhoods,” he said.

Continual attacks on Hama

Hama, scene the massacre of thousands by the military in the 1980s that was the bloodiest in modern Syrian history, came under attack by government forces at the beginning of the fasting month of Ramadan in August to end pro-democracy rallies.

The authorities said “armed terrorist gangs” were operating in Hama, killing army and police and “frightening inhabitants yearning for peace and security.”

In Damascus, Youtube footage showed a crowd of hundreds holding shoulders and swaying in a traditional ‘dabka’ dance while singing an adaption of an old ballade.

“Tears flows from the eye, my mother, crying for Syria’s youth,” they chanted.

International outrage has mount as the civilian toll rose in Syria. The United Nations is conducting an investigation into what it says are possible human rights violations, but world powers show no sign of repeating action similar to Libya.

Assad held an inconclusive meeting on Wednesday with Arab ministers seeking to end the bloodshed by mediating a dialogue between him and his opponents.

The Arab League had called on the two sides to agree to a dialogue within two weeks.

The authorities said they had reservations about the proposal while opposition figures said they cannot sit down with them if killings of protesters, disappearances and mass arrests do not stop.

Spain summoned Syria’s ambassador

Spain, meanwhile, summoned Syria’s ambassador to Madrid on Friday, complaining of allegations that members of his embassy abused Syrian opposition sympathizers on Spanish soil, the government here said.

The foreign ministry summoned ambassador Hussamedin Alaa “after repeated complaints by Syrian and Spanish-Syrian citizens, opponents of the current regime, of acts allegedly committed by members of the embassy in clear abuse of their status,” it said in a statement.

Human rights watchdog Amnesty International on Oct. 3 reported intimidation and torture of opposition sympathizers living in Europe and the United States, and of their relatives in Syria.

The foreign ministry told Alaa “to put an end to any activity by (embassy) staff that could be considered a violation of the human rights of demonstrators, in particular their freedom of association and expression.”

The Spanish government “will not hesitate to take appropriate measures over acts committed on its territory by staff with diplomatic accreditation or official status,” it added.

‘Iran is our central threat, must be prioritized as such’

October 28, 2011

‘Iran is our central threat, mus… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Amos Gilad [file]

    Senior Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad warned on Friday that Iran is the central threat to Israel and said it should be prioritized as such by leaders in Jerusalem.

Speaking at the Ashkelon Academic College, Gilad admitted that there is no immediate nuclear threat,” but said “there is certainly great motivation and determination [for one]” in Iran.

From a security perspective, Gilad said, Israel has never had to deal with so many fronts. “We need to know how to priorities what to deal with first. In my opinion, we’re talking about the Iranian front.”

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, he added, see and understand the depth of that threat and the danger it poses Israel.

Asked whether Israel should attack Iran, the Defense Ministry official said, “All options are open.”

Israel, he explained, has no place under the sun in the Iranian perspective. “[Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Khamenei says that Israel has no place. Iran believes that it needs to be an empire equal in strength to the United States. That is the motivation driving the development of Iran’s missile capabilities.”

“As of now the Iranians have enriched uranium. Today the situation is that they are on the starting line – there is uranium, the knowledge is there, but they are not producing” nuclear weapons, he said.

Can you imagine 24 million Israelis?

October 28, 2011

Can you imagine 24 million Israelis? | Jerusalem Post – Blogs.

The analysis is quite terrible, but the numbers presented in this Asia Times article are intriguing. Take a look. Population aged 15 to 24 years, Israel vs selected countries:

And here’s what the Asia Times has to say about it:

With a total fertility rate of three children per woman, Israel’s total population will rise to 24 million by the end of the present century. Iran’s fertility is around 1.7 and falling, while the fertility for ethnic Turks is only 1.5 (the Kurdish minority has a fertility rate of around 4.5).

Not that the size of land armies matters much in an era of high-tech warfare, but if present trends continue, Israel will be able to field the largest land army in the Middle East. That startling data point, though, should alert analysts to a more relevant problem: among the military powers in the Middle East, Israel will be the only one with a viable population structure by the middle of this century.

That is why it is in America’s interest to keep Israel as an ally. Israel is not only the strongest power in the region; in a generation or two it will be the only power in the region, the last man standing among ruined neighbors. The demographic time bomb in the region is not the Palestinian Arabs on the West Bank, as the Israeli peace party wrongly believed, but rather Israel itself.

Syria sows mines along Lebanese, Jordanian, Turkish borders

October 28, 2011

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report October 28, 2011, 10:06 AM (GMT+02:00)

Syrian soldiers mining Lebanese border

In the last 48 hours, the Syrian engineering corps has laid minefields along the Jordanian, Turkish borders to cut down on the influx of weapons and armed manpower supporting the anti-Assad opposition and the outflow of army deserters.  debkafile‘s military sources add: By this action, Syria aims to seal itself off against foreign military intervention by Arab or NATO troops.

Syrian troops were sighted this week sowing mines along the northern bank of the Yarmouk River which marks the Syrian-Jordanian frontier. They started at the juxtaposition of the Syrian, Israeli and Jordan borders thereby linking the newly mined sector to the existing field on Syria’s Golan boundary with Israel.
The mines on the Lebanese frontier were laid near the northern Lebanese villages of Knaysseh and Al-Hnayder and on both sides of the border near Heet and Buwayt. On the Turkish frontier, the Syrian minelayers went to work in the Idlib and Jebel Zawayeh regions where large numbers of officers and soldiers who defected to the rebels are concentrated.

According to our military sources, Turkey recently boosted its direct intervention in the Syrian uprising. The rebel military commands permitted to operate from its soil have now received permission to start recruiting Syrian army deserters and volunteers, bring them over for short training stints and send them back armed with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), automatic weapons and hand grenades.
The new Syrian minefield is intended to put a stop to this traffic.

Bashar Assad is reported by our sources to have started acting like a hunted man since Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s violent death. Apparently haunted by that event, he fears the expanding volume of weapons smuggled into Syria is providing infrastructure for a NATO-backed Arab military operation in support of the uprising.

Thursday, Oct. 27, the Qatari chief of staff Gen. Hamad bin Ali Atiya admitted for the first time that the emirate had injected ground troops into the Libyan conflict:  “We were among them and the numbers of Qataris on the ground were hundreds in every region,” he said.

He did not disclose how they were brought into Libya. debkafile‘s military sources report that they were transported by American military freighter planes. Inside Libya, Qatar established a mobile command center which moved around with the troops. The Qatari foot soldiers were not alone. Jordanian special forces also fought with the rebels in Libya.

Since Saudi and Qatari intelligence agencies are organizing and funding the arms consignments smuggled into Syria, military and intelligence chiefs in Damascus fear that the next stage will be incursions by Saudi, Qatari and Jordanian special forces to team up with the indigenous rebels.
There has been no official comment from the Syrian government on Qaddafi’s death, but opposition activists have gone to town on it. This week, they ordered demonstrators to turn out in force Friday, Oct. 28, and to call on NATO to declare Syria a no-fly zone to prevent its air force attacking rebels. That was how Western military intervention in Libyan began last March.

Iranian Assassination Plot

October 28, 2011

Iranian Assassination Plot: » Publications » Family Security Matters.

Scripted Chaos Leads Cultists to Seek Islamist “Genie’s” Return

 

As details were released of the Iranian sponsored plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US in Washington and of a secondary plot targeting Israel’s ambassador, the undertone of the US media was one of disbelief. Directed by Iranian agents, a naturalized US citizen from Iran tried to recruit a Mexican drug cartel hit man to do the job—a hit man who turned out to be a US government informant. In announcing that one conspirator had been arrested last month, even US government officials suggested the plot sounded like something out of a Hollywood script. The official was partially correct—there is a script involved, but it is one that has been written thousands of miles away from Hollywood and, more importantly, is not fiction.
A disconnect exists between how we wish to perceive the theocratic government that has ruled Iran for 32 years and the reality of that leadership’s rationality. Through their appeasement policies, every US president from Jimmy Carter, who opened the door to Iran’s Islamic extremist takeover by pressing the Shah to leave and ushering in Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to Barack Obama, who led us to believe he could talk to the Iranians, is guilty of contributing to the American perception that eventually Tehran’s mullahs would exercise reason. That has been far from the case. The Iranian leadership is devoid of rationality, only using the time that has been wasted to realize this to create a much more dangerous world. And, according to the script written in Tehran, the worst is yet to come for non-believers!
Iran’s theocrats view their rise to power in 1979 and their increasing global influence, coupled with the fall of US influence and our economic woes, as part of Allah’s grand design. The fact the West has done little to check Iran’s march to become a global threat by which Islam will be imposed upon the rest of the world is also part of this design. So too was the US invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring sweeping through the Middle East. As Allah’s design allegedly plays out, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad earlier this year produced a documentary film to educate Iran’s clerics on what lies ahead.
The film reveals Ahmadinejad as one of three players on a world stage where chaos will soon run rampant. Other players include Iran’s current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah (the terrorist group in Lebanon serving as Iran’s puppet) leader Hassan Nasrallah. How this all plays out in Allah’s design is the focus of the Iranian leadership’s cultist prophecy. (Ironically, as Iran moves closer towards fulfilling this prophecy, rather than focusing on this violent cult’s religion, US presidential politics focus on raising allegations a candidate’s nonviolent religion is a cult.) But, understanding the Iranian cult’s prophecy is critical to understanding why the Saudi ambassador in the US was targeted. Ahmadinejad’s film suggests an answer—and makes clear the doom fast approaching for the West he seeks to impose.
Ahmadinejad is a “Twelver”—as are 90% of Iran’s Shiite population. Twelvers believe in the twelve divinely ordained imams. The twelfth supposedly disappeared as a child in the ninth century while attending the funeral of the eleventh. It is believed he ascended into a state of occultation where he remains until, like a genie in the bottle, he is released to descend to Earth.
However, the “stars must be in alignment” as certain events need occur before the Twelfth Imam (also known as the “Mahdi”) returns. Two of these events should be of particular concern to non-believers.
First, the world must be engulfed in chaos. The vast majority of Twelvers believe this chaos will evolve naturally with Mahdi returning to ease the suffering. But a small sect known as the “Hojjatieh Society” believes man can initiate the necessary chaos, thus triggering Mahdi’s return, after which he will subject the world to Shariah law and rid it of non-believers. Since Hojjatiehists yearn for Mahdi’s return, they also believe any means possible is justified to precipitate the chaos.
In 1984, the Society’s views were so worrisome to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini—a brutal leader in his own right—that he outlawed the group. But, understanding the Hojjatieh mindset explains Ahmadinejad’s determination to possess nuclear weapons and his “end of the world” scenario, documented in his film, yet to come for non-believers.
This is not something we should dismiss lightly as we do with radio evangelist Harold Camping who is constantly revising the date of his “end of world” prophecy. Camping poses no threat to mankind for he leaves fulfillment of his prophecy to a Greater Power. But Ahmadinejad believes he is part of a Greater Power ordained by Prophet Muhammad to carry out his prophecy. He only awaits development of the “means” to rain chaos upon the world—and, in Ahmadinejad’s cultist world, he firmly believes the end does justify the means by which he seeks to accomplish it.
According to the film, the Twelfth Imam’s return is “very close” to happening. This comports with statements Ahmadinejad has made to various Middle East leaders that the return will occur before he leaves office as president in 2013. He has claimed, after speaking at the UN in 2006, his divine role in the prophecy’s fulfillment was suggested as he found himself surrounded by an aura that left all listeners spellbound. Unsurprisingly, no one else observed it.
Ahmadinejad has been preparing for Mahdi’s return for years. As Tehran’s mayor before becoming president, he ordered some city streets widened to accompany parades to commemorate Mahdi’s eventual return.
Not to be out-done by Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei asserts Mahdi has already visited him. During this visit, the Twelfth Imam supposedly shared his return plans, telling Khamenei it would occur while he was still Supreme Leader.
Second, another star that must align to signal Mahdi’s return is one which might shed light on the plot to kill the Saudi ambassador.
Ahmadinejad’s film reveals Saudi Arabia factors into Mahdi’s return in two ways.
The first way involves the two nations’ sectarian rivalry. Because Iran and Saudi Arabia represent two different sects of Islam, Shia and Sunni respectively, religious tensions have long existed between them. For this reason, Shiites resent the fact Sunni Saudi Arabia is guardian of Islam’s two most sacred cities, Medina and Mecca.
Accordingly, the film mentions a military commander who will form an army to march into Mecca. That commander is Hezbollah’s Nasrallah. He will invade Saudi Arabia to wrestle Mecca from Sunni control.
Some Iran critics suggest the reason for the assassination plot was Tehran’s desire for retribution for Saudi Arabia’s interference with its efforts to destabilize pro-US governments in Bahrain and Yemen. The interference even prompted some of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders to call for military action against Saudi Arabia. But, according to the film, another reason may well exist.
The second way Saudi Arabia factors into the prophecy is that no invasion can occur until after Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has died. At 86 and ill, Abdullah may be close to death’s door. But having an uncertain timetable for launching world chaos and, as an Hojjitieh cultist believing he can cause a date certain for Abdullah’s demise through assassination, Ahmadinejad may have sought the King’s “symbolic” death by seeking to assassinate his personal representative in the “Great Satan’s” capital of Washington DC.
The US Treasury Department designated as terrorists four ranking members of Iran’s special operations Qods Force—a paramilitary unit under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which also is designated by the US as a terrorist organization—for their involvement in the assassination plot. Also designated was the naturalized US citizen, Manssor Arbabsiar. Arbabsiar, as well as one of the Qods leaders, were indicted. Only Arbabsiar is in custody with the others believed to be in Iran. One of these four is known to have masterminded a 2007 raid in Karbala, Iraq, responsible for killing five American soldiers, four execution style after being kidnapped.
While Iran denies involvement in the assassination plot, taped telephone conversations between co-conspirators—referring in code to the assassination as “buying a Chevrolet”—prove otherwise. Cooperating with investigators, Arbabsiar reported the plan called for using an explosive device outside a restaurant to kill the Saudi ambassador, with no concern for innocent bystanders.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the plot “crosses a line.” Such a statement ignores other transgressions by which Iran’s terrorist activities have repeatedly crossed that line. Each time Iran has crossed it, Tehran has done so without fear of US retaliation. The 1979 seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran, the 1983 bombing of the Marine Barracks in Lebanon, the 1996 bombing of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, support for the 9/11 terrorists, responsibility for the deaths of thousands of US troops in Iraq and Afhganistan by providing militants with IEDs, and the aforementioned 2007 Karbala raid, all involved Iran.
Before retiring as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen testified, “Iran is very directly supporting extremist Shiite groups which are killing our troops. There is no question they are shipping high-tech weapons in there…that are killing our people. And the forensics prove that.” Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has denounced this support by Iran, stating, “We cannot sit back and simply allow this to continue to happen. This is not something we’re going to walk away from. It’s something we’re going to take on head-on.”
The failure of the US to ever take action against Iran for the above acts has only emboldened Tehran to continue to cross the line. Although US Attorney General Eric Holder reported unspecified action would be taken for Iran’s involvement in the assassination plot, once again Tehran’s line crossing is not deemed serious enough to warrant retaliation. A senior defense official has indicated the plot “is not a trip wire for military action in Iran.” As to taking international action against Iran, a former US National Security staff member is skeptical, stating, “It is one thing to put together an international coalition in the aftermath of a terrorist attack; it’s quite different when the attack has been foiled, especially when, as in this case, it was a sting operation.”
Iran’s charter to wage war against non-believers anywhere in the world without regard for a nation’s territorial integrity has been evident ever since 1979. It is a war sanctioned at the highest levels, as evidenced by the 1994 suicide bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina. Evidence revealed involvement by Iran’s president at the time, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, leading to a warrant being issued by the Argentine government. Although, for political reasons, Interpol would not issue a warrant for Rafsanjani, it did issue warrants for his co-conspirators.
Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism. Its constitution mandates the exportation of the Islamic revolution beyond its borders. Therefore, it has no reservations as to how it does so, including covert assassination, as was intended in this case, or more openly, as evidenced by Iranian Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini’s 1989 assassination order for author Salman Rushdie after publishing “The Satanic Verses.”
If Tehran has not hesitated to undertake such aggression against the US without a nuclear weapon in its arsenal, we can only imagine what aggression is planned once it is so armed. Meanwhile, we naively ignore the threats of a nuclear holocaust upon us by a madman who denies an earlier Holocaust ever occurred.
Ahmadinejad’s film indicates the trio composed of him, Khamenei and Nasrallah will wage war against the enemies of Islam—i.e., the US, its Arab allies and Israel—and it will be a war the trio, not their enemies, seek out. When the nuclear chaos intended for the West occurs, will the line crossed finally be sufficient to trigger a US military response?
Ahmadinejad’s film is very telling. By definition, a movie “based on a true story” follows a past event in time.  However, should Iran not be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons, it may be the first time a movie “based on a true story” precedes the event upon which it is based.
Iran is hellbent on releasing the Mahdi “genie” from its bottle by visiting chaos upon the US and Israel. Reality tells us the return of the Mahdi Ahmadinejad so desperately seeks to trigger will never occur. But based on Ahmadinejad’s cultist beliefs, reality should also tell us—if not stopped from arming with the capability to do so—the nuclear chaos he seeks to inflict will.
 
Family Security Matters Contributing Editor Lt. Colonel James G. Zumwalt, USMC (ret) is a retired Marine infantry officer who served in the Vietnam War, the US invasion of Panama and the first Gulf war.  He is the author of “Bare Feet, Iron Will–Stories from the Other Side of Vietnam’s Battlefields” and frequently writes on foreign policy and defense issues.

EU trip to Iran canceled amid international criticism

October 28, 2011

EU trip to Iran canceled amid internatio… JPost – International.

The German Bundestag in Berlin

    BERLIN – A slated European Union lawmakers’ five-day trip to Iran in late October and early November was canceled on Wednesday. The controversial trip – which was organized by five lawmakers, including two German European members of parliament (EMP), Barbara Lochbieler and Kurt Lechner – faced intense criticism from fellow EMPs and Iranian dissidents.

Saba Farzan, a prominent German-Iranian expert on the Islamic Republic and EU-Iranian relations, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday, “The planned Iran trip by a European delegation and an Iran event hosted by a think tank in Berlin reveals a major dilemma. Germany refuses to realize that isolation is important, that isolation works and that we need more isolation, including cutting diplomatic ties with one of the most brutal regimes of this world.”

She continued that “only in Berlin have I observed such a refusal. As a German Iranian journalist, this leaves me ashamed and shocked while it would be so easy and without any major cost for my country to side with the cause of freedom for the country of my childhood. Ongoing dialogue and business is not in our strategic interest. A Middle East with a democratic Iran certainly is.”

There were conflicting reports about which party canceled the visit to Tehran.

According to a report from the Kuwait News Agency on Wednesday, the Iranians pulled the plug on the planned trip. The news agency quoted the Finish EMP chairwoman of the Iran delegation, Tarja Cronberg.

“This decision means that the visit is effectively canceled, despite considerable preparations and planning. No clear reasons were given for this unexpected decision,” said Cronberg in a statement.

She added that the “European parliament’s delegation was ready to engage in a constructive dialogue with Iranian parliamentarians, government officials and representatives of civil society on issues such as the nuclear program; human rights; drug related issues; energy and the environment; regional security and the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iran. The delegation very much regrets the fact that the Iranian authorities chose to break off this timely opportunity for dialogue.”

There was, however, speculation in Europe that rising political and media pressure contributed to the cancellation.

During an EU debate about the controversial Iran trip in October, British MEP Struan Stevenson, said, “In view of the news this morning that the American government has uncovered a plot by the Iranians to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, together with the news that another 300 prisoners have been transferred to death row expecting imminent execution – and these are people, mostly students, who were arrested during the uprisings in Tehran and other cities in Iran – I think it is a deeply retrograde step that this house, that the conference of presidents, has agreed to send a delegation to Tehran in two or three weeks time.”

“I think Iran is now beyond the pale; to give them that kind of publicity, to give them that kind of oxygen is completely wrong. We should think again about that conference of presidents’ decision,” he continued.

President of the EU Parliament Jerzy Busek, who hails from Poland, responded to Stevenson, saying, “Your remarks will certainly be taken into consideration.”

According to Christian Zimmermann, from Germanbased human rights NGO Büro für Menschenrechte und MinderheitenAngelegeneheiten, Busek said during an October visit to Berlin that he does not “think this trip will take place because in view of the changing behavior of the Iranian regime, it is not a good time to travel to Iran to hold talks.”

Zimmerman’s human rights NGO fights to combat repression against pro-democracy Iranians and victims of the Iranian government’s policies.

The Italian MEP Marco Scurria, joined his colleague Stevenson in objecting to the EU visit. He placed a statement on his personal website requesting that Cronberg walk away from the visit because of Iran’s alleged assassination plot to bomb a Washington restaurant and murder the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US.

A report in last week’s The Huffington Post said the EU trip to Iran would cost European taxpayers 100,000 euros.

The Huffington Post article titled “European Parliament ‘Iran Delegation’ Plans Shameful Trip To Tehran” cited outraged Iranian dissidents.

According to the Huffington Post, “an EP visit would only be interpreted by Iran as if no matter what crimes they commit, they are still respected and welcomed by the international community!” said Ali M., who escaped from repression in Iran several months ago. He is seeking asylum in Luxembourg, noted the Huffington Post.

“Any visit to that regime is an insult to the blood of our loved ones who were murdered by the regime’s henchmen,” Fereshte Dashti, told the Huffington Post, adding, “I am appalled to see these people insisting so much to make such trips. They seem to have nothing but personal interests. Human lives seem to mean nothing to them.”

The online news website reported that she “lost seven of her closest relatives for opposing the dictatorship in Iran.”

Meanwhile, the German Foreign Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), a policy think tank, unleashed a storm of criticism on Wednesday for hosting Iran’s Deputy Finance Minister Muhammad Reza Farzin. According to a report on Ynet, diplomatic sources said Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon raised Farzin’s appearance at the DGAP event with German diplomats.

DGAP president and former German ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran Paul von Maltzahn personally invited Farzin to Berlin.

The German political scientist Dr. Matthias Küntzel slammed the DGAP decision to court Iran’s government and reject tough sanctions against Tehran. Küntzel, an author of essays and an authoritative book on German- Iranian economic and political relations, wrote on his website on Tuesday that the DGAP’s “orientation takes for granted an acceptance of the Iranian bomb and Iranian terror.”

 

Qaddafi’s Demise and the Syria Ruler

October 28, 2011

DEBKA.

Tehran Bets on Assad Going on the Warpath before NATO Attacks Him

After Muammar Qaddafi’s death in Libya, the spotlight has swung round to Damascus and Brussels and two questions: Will NATO forces intervene in Syria as they did in Libya? And will Bashar Assad suffer the same fate at his enemies’ hands as Qaddafi did in Libya?
On Tuesday, Oct. 25, President Barack Obama told NBC’s “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno,” “We gave him (Qaddafi) ample opportunity and he wouldn’t do it. Qaddafi’s death sends a strong message around the world to dictators that people long to be free.”
The next day, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe reinforced the impression left by Obama’s remarks by saying: “This will end with the fall of the (Assad) regime, it is nearly unavoidable, but unfortunately it could take time…”
Both seemed to be suggesting that Assad’s fall would not come about through a NATO offensive as in Libya, but at the hands of his own people.
Li Hongmei, a Chinese analyst who often reflects the official Beijing line wrote on Wednesday: “Libya acts as an outlandish model (for the West) which has satisfied the appetite of the powers involved for the unchallenged position (of) superior military might, as well as its logic: Might is Right. But, whether or not NATO would recalibrate its focus upon Syria is not merely a question… whether or not the Libya military model could be replicated elsewhere, and how far the proxy war can go.”
Iran and Hizballah rule out NATO intervention – but are prepared
However, Syria’s only partners in the Arab and Muslim world, Iran and Hizballah of Lebanon, seem to take the opposite view, that barring a radical change in the Syrian equation, the US and NATO would not venture to wage war on Syria.
Saturday, Oct. 22, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said: “I think and we believe that there should be no interference (in Syria) from outside.”
Three days later, on Oct. 25, Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah had this to say: “What’s happening in Syria is not a call for reform and change; it’s a bid to oust the regime, which has been fighting the US and Israel.”
He ruled out any military interference in Syria noting, “The West would not venture to wage any military war against Syria, because it is Israel’s neighbor, and they fear this would affect the security of Israel. External interference will not achieve any goal in Syria now because of the majority’s support for the regime.”
Majority support?
debkafile’s military and intelligence sources remark that Iranian and Hizballah leaders feel the need to assure themselves that the US and NATO are not poised to attack Syria, but they are whistling in the dark and are immersed meanwhile in military preparations for this very contingency.
Those preparations, far from focusing on rescuing Bashar Assad and his regime, are geared to preserving the Iranian-Hizballah grip on Lebanon whatever becomes of the Syrian ruler. They are predicated on three unfolding scenarios.
1. A possible direct NATO strike against Syria by air and the sea:
If the Western alliance does go to war on the Assad regime, it would be expected to follow the Libyan pattern of first blasting government centers in the capital along with military command centers and infrastructure. This intervention would be held back until after a full-scale guerilla war evolves to a pitch that cannot be suppressed without the Syrian army capturing entire cities from rebel control.
Two northern cities Homs and Hama are close to this situation.
With every passing day, the Syrian military is moreover plagued by widening strata of defections at the rate of dozens or even hundreds of soldiers and officers dropping out of their units to fight with the opposition.
The troops remaining loyal are exhausted after eight months of fighting and killing protesters. They are further demoralized by seeing the protesters’ ranks swelled day by day by well-trained, highly-motivated fighters at the expense of their own depleting strength.
2. Expanding weapons smuggling:
The heads of Assad’s military and intelligence services have failed totally to halt the smuggling of weapons pouring into opposition hands from two friendly sources: Jordan, where smugglers cross the Yarmouk River and drop their consignments in the restive Horan area of southern Syria whence they are distributed to central and eastern Syria; And Lebanon: The weapons smuggled through the central and northern sectors of the Lebanese-Syrian border bolster the rebels fighting the regime in northwestern Syria.
The consignments are organized, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report, by agents of Saudi Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, who coordinates the kingdom’s intelligence operations in the Arab Revolt, and the Qatari intelligence chief Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani.
Both exponentially increase the number and quality of arms pumped to the Syrian rebels every two or three weeks. Today, the Syrian army is confronted with protesters armed with a large number of anti-aircraft weapons, especially rocket-propelled grenades – RPGs – and more advanced hardware on the way.
The Syrian ruler has no diplomatic channel for interceding with the Saudi and Qatari rulers to get the flow of weapons shipments to his enemies stopped. His relations with Riyadh and Doha are severed. He was not invited to the state funeral of Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdel Aziz this week. But his uncle, sworn enemy and opposition leader Rifaat Assad was.
This week Syrian armored forces and commandos increased their raids into Lebanon in pursuit of deserters and gunrunners. Washington confirmed for the first time Thursday, Oct. 27, that Syrian forces have been entering Lebanon in the last few weeks.
But that is just the beginning. In the view of Tehran and Hizballah, the Syrian military will be drawn into seizing ever larger parts of Lebanon and then Jordan as the only way to stanch the arms smuggling. This would provoke NATO, Saudi Arabia, the GCC Gulf security pact nations and Israel into military intervention.
3. Increasingly painful economic sanctions:
The economic sanctions imposed on Syria, especially by its European trading partners, are increasingly squeezing the Assad regime. Its grave cash shortage, as reported in earlier issues, has forced Damascus to borrow money from Iranian and Russian banks to at least cover the armed forces’ payroll.
Assad may opt for instigating a Middle East war as a desperate shift to fight his way out of a tight corner. The Syrian ruler characteristically reacts to adversity with aggression. And in fact in recent months he and his associates have threatened more than once to ignite the entire region, including targeting Tel Aviv, if the Assad family goes to the wall.
It seems to Hizballah and its Iranian masters that the Syrian ruler is more likely to go on the offensive before -rather than after – he is attacked by NATO.