WarSclerotic

Playing Iran with home-field advantage.

Al Arabiya

By Tariq Alhomayed

Monday, 17 October 2011

Iran’s Supreme Leader claims that the West is seeking to promote what he described as “Iranophobia”, or anti-Iranian sentiments. The truth is that with the revelation of the Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to Washington, and the international response, this is the first time that the international community plays Iran with home-field advantage, approximately since the 1980s.

Khameini’s words about “Iranophobia”, which are echoed by some ill-informed people among us today, are untrue, and evidence of ignorance. Rather, what is happening today, and the international response to Iran’s plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador, which may yet bring Iran to the guillotine of the Security Council, represents the first time that is Tehran feeling the gravity of international pressure, and its serious nature.

Hence this is the first time that the international community is dealing with Iran with home-field advantage, and although this is a sports term, it explains a lot about the international situation with Iran. From the year 2005 onwards, I would say to all those who have met with the Iranians, whether US, Saudi, or some Arab officials, your key problem with Iran is that you did not play with them on their home turf. Tehran instead is exploiting your resources, through agents or even through alliances with enemies such as al-Qaeda. It is playing on ethnic and sectarian divisions in your region, exploiting the Palestinian cause, and allying with the Muslim Brotherhood without attempting – even once – to play its opponents on its own territory.

The Iranian mosaic is more complex than Lebanon or Iraq for example. It has a population of more than 70 million, amongst them millions of Sunnis, in addition of course to the Shiites. There are also many Arabs, who are non-Persians, and whose rights are compromised, just as there are also Kurds, Baluchis, Ahwazi Arabs, Turkmen and Armenians. There are also religious minorities such as Baha’is, Mandaeans, Zoroastrians, Aliarsanyen, Jews and Christians. Despite all this, and despite Iranian interference in our region and other Islamic states, no one has once tried to say to Iran that people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones!

Iran is interfering in Bahrain under the pretext of supporting the Shiites, while there is not one Sunni mosque to be found in Tehran! It is interfering in Iraq, hence rubbing America’s nose in it, with help from the al-Assad regime, and though al-Qaeda and its Shiite counterparts. A few weeks ago an Iraqi official told me that numerous Sunnis have been swept under the sand, in fact not only Sunnis but also honorable Shiites in Iraq who do not accept Tehran’s intervention. Iran is also doing “wonders” in Lebanon, where it has established Hezbollah, members of which are accused of assassinating the Sunni leader Rafik Hariri.

Tehran itself supports Bashar al-Assad, a man from a minority leadership which governs the majority in Syria with an iron fist, so it is not surprising that the al-Assad regime representative to the Arab League rejected condemnation of the Iranian terrorist plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador!

This is not all; Iran also interferes in Yemen through the Houthis, and in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, through bombings and incitement, the latest example being the incidents in Awwamiya. Tehran has also occupied islands off the coast of the UAE, and has extended its terrorism to Nigeria and Sudan through weapons smuggling. Furthermore, Iran has supported and continues to support al-Qaeda, ever since the late 1980s. Despite all this, Iran has not been challenged, even once, to play their opponents at home, who would believe this?

(The writer is the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq al-Awsat. The article was published on the London-based newspaper on Oct. 16, 2011.)

Why did Iran plot the assassination of the Saudi ambassador?.

Al Arabiya

By Nasser al-Sarami

Monday, 17 October 2011

The Iranian threat to the Gulf and to Arabs has never stopped, not even for one day. In both the official and the popular memory, several sporadic unfortunate incidents the region has witnessed owing to Iranian intervention and Iran’s attempts to implant visible or invisible powers, a process commonly known as “exporting the Islamic Revolution,” still remain.

The very mention of Iran has never been for the good of the region, for its stability, development, or economic growth. Instead, it has always provided a reason for war and sedition, and this is demonstrated in its constant threats to wreak havoc to stop navigation in the Arabian Gulf and to activate its dormant cells in the area, all mentioned in Iranian official statements.

The last of those was made by Supreme Leader Khamenei, who threatened on October 1 to launch air strikes against Gulf countries.

A quick look at the map of the Arab world also confirms the path Iran has been taking to create non-stop chaos. There isn’t a country or a regime that, for example, used pilgrimage for political purposes through fabricating actions that varied between crime, terrorism, and subversion, as Iran has done for the past three decades.

Take the support given to the Houthis in Yemen and to certain opposition powers in Bahrain in order to destabilize this peaceful island, as well as intervention in Iraq and the destructive intelligence and economic presence currently visible in the new Iraqi state. Add to that the support of Hamas and the encouragement of internal Palestinian divisions, implanting Hezbollah and its weapons in Lebanon, embracing the remnants of al-Qaeda and forming a suspicious partnership with the Sudanese government.

This is all, of course, in addition to Iran’s most strategic ally and the main reason behind its influence in the Arab world: Syria and its tattered regime.

Then came the unraveling of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington while he was involved in a campaign that has been gaining momentum by the hour and which called upon Bashar al-Assad to end the systematic killing of his people and demanded that Iranian nuclear ambitions be curbed as soon as possible.

The ambassador met on a daily basis with members of Congress, the State Department, and State Security to convey the concerns of the Arab world about the crimes committed by the Syrian regime.

Another story reveals the collaboration between Iran and Syria in order to thwart Syrian opposition. The FBI recently charged a Syrian residing in the United States with collecting information about members of Syrians opposed to Assad’s regime.

In fact, it is hard to separate the assassination plot from its purpose: obstructing all attempts to condemn the Syrian regime and to issue a U.N. resolution against it so that at the end of the day Iran stays Syria’s first and foremost ally. Tehran is afraid of losing a regime that constitutes its power base in the entire Middle East.

That is why we might be up against a much bigger plan that aims at exporting terrorism to the whole world. This can be seen in the way the alert level has been raised internationally in the face of Iran’s terrorist scheme.

(The writer is head of media at Al Arabiya. This article was first published in al-Jazirah newspaper on Oct. 16, 2011 and translated from Arabic by Sonia Farid)

Why don’t they believe the assassination story?.

Al Arabiya

By Abdul Rahman al-Rashed

Monday, 17 October 2011

Asia Times Online :: Obama totes his Iranian smoking gun.

By Victor Kotsev

Regardless of what we believe about the alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, it has attracted a lot of attention. The specifics are less important than the highly charged context in which the news broke – with tensions running so high in so many parts of the Middle East, Iran is involved practically everywhere, locked in an intense power struggle with its American-backed arch-enemies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

In the immediate future, the charges can serve to further isolate the Islamic Republic in the international community. The United States has been trying to do just that (supported by Saudi Arabia, which officially notified the United Nations of the alleged conspiracy), and despite initial skepticism, [1] the debate seems o be picking up.

Different observers have compared it to the hostage crisis at the United States Embassy in Tehran in 1979, the bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina in 1992, and numerous other attacks worldwide, many on diplomatic targets, that were attributed to Iran, the Lebanese Shi’ite militant group Hezbollah (closely allied with Iran), or both.

Israeli analyst Yossi Melman points out, “Saudi Arabia’s ambassador Adel al-Jubeir is considered a bitter rival of Iran and his actions have been loathed by the ayatollah regime for years … al-Jubeir maintains close ties with the Saudi king, and according to WikiLeaks documents he was one of the people who succeeded in toughening the king’s stance toward Iran.” [2]

Investigative journalist Gareth Porter suggests that the American secret services may have practically entrapped the main suspect, Mansour Arabsiar, and influenced him heavily to pursue the terrorist track with his Iranian handlers (See FBI account of ‘terror plot’ suggests sting, Asia Times Online, October 14, 2011). “On May 24, when Arabsiar first met with the [Drug Enforcement Administration] DEA informant he thought was part of a Mexican drug cartel, it was not to hire a hit squad to kill the ambassador,” writes Porter. “Rather, there is reason to believe that the main purpose was to arrange a deal to sell large amounts of opium from Afghanistan.” [3]

Others, such as former high-ranking American diplomat Martin Indyk, find the Iranian plot convincing. “Seldom is the Iranian hand in terrorism revealed as clearly as it was Tuesday in the careful details provided by the US Justice Department,” writes Indyk. He goes even further, linking the plot to the prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas last week, and arguing that the latter was a blow to Tehran.

“The best way for Iran to spread its influence into the Arab heartland is to stoke the flames of conflict with Israel. Any prisoner swap deal between Hamas and Israel would take fuel off the fire.” [4]

Given how clumsily the Washington plot was reportedly executed, it is hard to imagine that it was specifically coordinated with another complex process that lasted for months (the Shalit deal). Still, there is reason to believe that the Iranian regime is on the defensive, and Indyk’s reasoning that “[w]hen the Iranian regime finds itself in a corner, it typically lashes out” may not be too far off.

Not that the United States, Israel or Saudi Arabia are doing very well in the Arab Spring revolutions – the events in Bahrain, Egypt and Yemen attest to that – but Iran has suffered several particularly bad setbacks recently.

It is hardly an exaggeration to say that Syria is burning in a slow civil war; the government of Bashar al-Assad, a close Iranian ally, still appears to be strong, barring a foreign intervention [5], but the situation in the country is so bad that, according to US ambassador there Robert Ford, people cannot even afford to buy eggs. [6]

Syria is a crucial part of Iran’s defensive network in the Middle East, and its loss would be a major blow to both Iran and Hezbollah. As a result of the civil war there, Iran has already lost a lot of influence with Hamas.

If Francesco Sisci’s analysis is correct, a great fear of the Iranians may well be that, should relations between Israel and the Palestinians warm, Arabs and Israelis could cooperate against the Islamic Republic (and other powers that seek to dominate the Islamic world, such as Turkey). Sisci writes:

… Arabs and Israelis could have common ground, and Palestinians could be in the golden position of being able to mediate between Arabs and Israelis – and between the Arab-Israeli front and Turkish or Persian ambitions. This could change forever the shape of the Middle East, and potentially bring about a more integrated market where Muslims, Christians and Jews could co-exist and thrive outside of an oil-driven economy. [7]

While any major alliance certainly does not seem imminent, since last year a flurry of reports has asserted that Saudi Arabia would cooperate with Israel in an attack on Iran – for example, by opening up its air space. [8]

Down the road, if proven, and especially if bolstered by additional credible charges (for example of Iranian involvement in the killing of US troops in Iraq), the plot against the Saudi ambassador could even serve as a casus belli for the United States against the Islamic Republic. It could also be a justification for President Barack Obama to tacitly approve (sometimes called giving the “yellow light”) on an Israeli operation against Iranian nuclear facilities.

Whether Israel is capable of confronting Iran on its own – or ultimately willing to do so – is another question, one that nobody seems to be able to answer. In any case, Israeli officials are again drumming up the heat on the Iranian nuclear program.

Leaked estimates claim that the window of opportunity for a strike on the Islamic Republic this winter will close in two months, because “[i]n normal winter weather conditions, it would be very difficult to carry out such a complex assault”; reports in the Israeli press convey how worried American officials are about a unilateral Israeli operation.

One even has to wonder if the continuous dire admonitions of the former chief of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, of the Benjamin Netanyahu government to abstain from attacking Iran aren’t to an extent a show intended to dramatize the threat. [9]

According to most estimates, Iran is at least several years away from producing a nuclear weapon – if it is even going down that route, something it denies. Nevertheless, tensions in the region are running extremely high – Iraq also deserves a mention – and the rhetoric of the American administration has grown very loud. Reportedly, Obama claimed that no options were “off the table in terms of how we operate with Iran” following the plot incident. [10]

It is possible that elements within the Iranian regime are interested in a confrontation; the Islamic Republic responded to the accusations with threats of its own. “Any inappropriate measure against Iran, whether political or security-related, will be strongly confronted by the Iranian nation,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said, quoted by Reuters. [11]

None of this bodes very well for regional peace in the Middle East; if it turns out that neither side is sufficiently motivated to ward of a confrontation, war might come around just by inertia.

As a final note, a recurring element in many of the subplots mentioned above is Hezbollah. While nothing so far points to its direct involvement in the Saudi ambassador plot, it is known to have significant networks in South America, to cooperate closely in terrorist activities with the Iranian Qods force, and to be keenly interested in everything involving Israel and Syria (the latter being its resupply life line from Iran), including the Shalit deal. Its presence is rumored in many places touched by the Arab Spring, and its role in the region is likely gravely underestimated by most analysts

Notes
1. U.S. Challenged to Explain Accusations of Iran Plot in the Face of Skepticism, The New York Times, October 12, 2011 (registration required).
2. The mystery behind the alleged Iran assassination plot, Ha’aretz, October 16, 2011.
3. FBI account of ‘terror plot’ suggests sting, Inter Press Service.
4. The Iranian Connection, Foreign Policy, October 12, 2011.
5. The Issue Of Foreign Intervention – US Calls on Assad to “Step Down Now”. Robert Ford, making a difference (By Ehsani), Syria Comment, October 7 2011.
6. Robert Ford: Syria violence reminds me of Iraq, Foreign Policy, October 14, 2011.
7. Israel, Palestine and the art of war, Francesco Sisci, October 13, 2011.
8. See, for example, CISI, Report Alleges Saudi Arabia Approves Israeli Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Sites, June 14, 2010.
9. Former Mossad chief: Iran far from achieving nuclear bomb, Ha’aretz, October 4, 2011.
10. Obama: No options off the table over Iran assassination plot, Ha’aretz, October 13, 2011.
11. Iran warns off West over alleged Saudi envoy plot, Reuters, October 16, 2011.

Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst.

U.S. intelligence on alert for Israeli strike on Iran.

WASHINGTON – The Pentagon is watching for the possibility that Israel could use the occasion of an alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States as a pretext for launching a long-anticipated attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, according to a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

The source, who is in a position to monitor Israeli defense activities, said the U.S. is watching “an indicator and warning matrix” in which the U.S. can “go so far as to plot the illumination tables to pick out what nights would be best” for such an attack.

The intelligence source said that there is “a green light” for the Israelis “to do a strike.”

The source said that the concern among some U.S. analysts is that an attack could be “imminent.”

For some time, Israel has sought to get the U.S. to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear-enrichment facilities sprinkled throughout the country. Until now, however, the U.S. has sought to impose more stringent sanctions against the Islamic republic, even though Tehran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and it has a “right” under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty to engage in enrichment for its reactors.

The indicators and warning, or I&W, are being watched closely following an arrest last month and an indictment this week in a New York federal courthouse in Manhattan of an Iranian-American, Mansour Arbabsiar, allegedly for conspiring to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Adel al-Jubier. Arbabsiar was arrested in a sting operation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The U.S. alleges that Arbabsiar, a used-car salesman living in Texas, had conspired with individuals in Iran said to be linked to Iran’s Quds Force. The Quds Force is an arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that undertakes foreign operations.

According to the indictment, Arbabsiar allegedly had contacted a member of a Mexican drug cartel who was an informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency to carry out the assassination at a Washington restaurant frequented by al-Jubier.

Arbabsiar allegedly was to funnel some $1.5 million from the Quds Force to the Mexican drug cartel contact. Prior to the arrest, two payments adding up to $100,000 allegedly were sent from Iran as a down payment, with the rest to be paid once al-Jubier was killed.

A total of $5 million potentially was to be paid out for other operations, which allegedly were to include attacks on the Israeli and Saudi embassies in Argentina following al-Jubier’s assassination.

The U.S. intelligence source said while some analysts believe an Israeli attack may be imminent, close I&W monitoring of Israeli defense posture indicated that only their civil defense had been “spun up” at the moment.

“You can’t launch a strike where the possibility of massive retaliation is very high and not have anything activated,” he said.

“One curious thing is that we’re taking a lot of imagery of the (Israeli) defense sites – more than usual,” he added. “You might see one report every few weeks on something (but) there were five just today.”

Even President Obama has stated that “nothing is off the table” when it comes to responding to Iran.