Yediot: Bibi Did Shalit Deal Because He Has Something Bigger Prepared for Iran – OpEd.

Written by: Richard Silverstein

October 12, 2011

A number of very peculiar things have happened or been published today that relate directly or indirectly to the Shalit deal.  First among them is an official IDF statement that the Israeli and Egyptian militaries have completed their investigation of the Israeli assault on Egyptian forces that followed the Eilat terror attack.  The Israeli media, including yesterday’s Haaretz (Hebrew), says the IDF killed five Egyptian officers, so why does Ethan Bronner and his entire NY Times Israel bureau continue to say, and repeatedly, only three were killed?  The report is under seal (of course) because presumably there are many things in it that would be embarrassing to the IDF and create greater tension between Israel and Egypt.  But the important passage is this:

Based on the findings of the investigation, Barak decided to express an apology to Egypt for the deaths of Egyptian policemen as the result of IDF fire.

Haaretz reports the apology in its Hebrew edition.  Interestingly, neither the official IDF statement or Haaretz’s report makes clear that Israel invaded Egyptian territory in hot pursuit of the terrorists.  This of course would’ve been dealt with in the secret report, which is why it’s secret.  H/t to reader Ruth.

News reports also indicate Israel will free some 80 Egyptians held in Israeli prisons and that Egypt will release Ilan Grapel, the Israeli-American arrested during the Tahrir Square protests several months ago.  It would seem (and Amos Harel confirms this in the Hebrew report linked above) that the Israeli apology for the killings in Eilat is part of this package deal.

Perhaps the most ominous story coming out of today’s news, is this report by a well-placed, well-regarded Israeli journalist, Alex Fishman, who says the reason that Bibi did the Shalit deal now, is that he has something really big up his sleeve.  Read on:

All Because of Iran

Bibi Netanyahu is dying to clear the table [“clean house”] and redecorate in preparation for something different, something bigger, something more important.

…If you’re looking for the things that worry Netanyahu and Barak they’re always connected to Iran.  This appears to be the background for the prime minister’s decision to back down from his previous position and to pressure the senior ministerial committee not to interfere and to close the Shalit deal.

Whatever’s happening regarding the Iran chapter [of this story] isn’t clear.  But it’s clear that this is the next hot subject and it’s important that Israel comes to it with the image of a moderate, pragmatic state prepared to compromise.  The Europeans will applaud us.  This is no less important: this will strengthen the international consensus and the image of the prime minister in the face of the next challenge.

The article details all the compromises and back pedaling Bibi agreed to in sealing this deal, all the retreats he made from previous red lines he’d drawn.  Fishman says there has to be a reason for Bibi capitulating to so many Hamas demands he’d been loathe to do before.  The answer: something’s cooking with Iran:

From Bibi’s point of view this deal is a default setting.  In his view, not completing it would’ve caused far more damage in light of the preparations for the battle with the great enemy [Iran] to come.

Bibi knew that if he attacked Iran, Hamas might never free Shalit.  In light of this, Bibi’s explanation that the deal was a “now or never” thing; that if it wasn’t done now the uncertainties and dangers of the Arab Spring might prevent a deal from ever being sealed–all make sense in a perverse way.  What he’s saying, if I’m right, is that the aftermath of an Israeli attack on Iran will leave the region so unstable that we might never see Shalit again.  And Bibi, and what little moral conscience he has, was troubled by this considering that he’d made numerous promises to free the Israeli soldier during his term in office.

If you read today’s news of our exposure of an alleged Iranian terror plot and the clear exaggeration the Justice Department is offering to explain the conspirators, their goals, and the means they attempted to use to achieve them, I think it reads like the U.S. and Israel preparing the world for an attack on Iran.  Before they do, they need to ratchet up pressure, intensify the demonization campaign.  They need to make Iran look the part of the villain before they strike.  Read Muhammad Sahimi’s further reporting on the alleged plot here.

Looking at the map above, isn’t it convenient that we uncovered this alleged plot against Saudi Arabia which has a possible Iran attack route outlined above.  The article specially notes that Saudi Arabia may wish to take steps of its own against Iran.  Gee, what might they be?  I wonder.

Finally, Yoram Cohen, Israel’s Shin Bet chief, has reassured Israel (Hebrew) that none of the Palestinian prisoners with “blood on their hands” will be released, by which he specifically refers to Ahmed Sadaat and Marwan Barghouti among others.  Frankly, I find it hard to believe that Hamas would wait six years to do a deal and not manage to free the most important of all the prisoners, Barghouti.  I believe, despite what Cohen says, that there must be a provision involving freeing Barghouti, even if it’s not considered formally part of the overall deal.

Shalit and Iran connection – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Netanyahu finalized Shalit swap because Israel must prepare for greater challenge

Alex Fishman

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuurgently wanted to clear his desk and prepare for something else; something bigger and more important.

The Gilad Shalit affair is one of the greatest burdens faced by the prime minister, and he had to remove it from the agenda in order to create a new image and elicit tolerance and sympathy to the government and its decisions – both in the domestic theater and among Israel’s friends, especially in Western Europe.

So why does the PM need this new image, to the point of renouncing his uncompromising principles on the issue of fighting terror? The answer to this mystery can be found in the enigmatic message he conveyed to the nation Tuesday evening.

Netanyahu spoke of a window of opportunity that is about to be closed and connected it to geostrategic developments. The average listener would translate this to mean the so-called Arab Spring and Arab world upheaval, which create uncertainty. Yet this is not the real reason.

When Netanyahu and Ehud Barak are concerned, it’s always somehow related to Iran. This is apparently the backdrop for the prime minister’s decision to show flexibility and convince the forum of top eight government ministers not to interrupt and finalize the Shalit deal.

What exactly is happening on the Iranian front? The answer is unclear. Yet this is clearly the next hot issue, and Israel better get there with an image of a flexible, pragmatic state that is willing to offer concessions. The Europeans will be applauding us, and no less importantly, it will boost the national consensus and the prime minister’s image ahead of the next challenge.

Red lines breached

The moment the PM was convinced to change direction, the way to completing the Shalit deal was paved. Once Netanyahu was convinced that he can renounce his principles, because more important matters are on the agenda, he gave the green light to Israel’s top negotiator, David Midan, to prepare a new list that breached all the red lines.

The freed prisoners will include representatives of the entire Palestinian nation, from every organization and every region – from the 1947 Palestine, from the Golan Heights and from Jerusalem. While these are not the numbers Hamas wanted, it won the public opinion battle. Israel also agreed to release some 15 heavyweight terrorists whom Netanyahu obligated not to free and said no other PM would release.

For Netanyahu, this deal is a default option. In his view, failing to implement it would have caused greater damage, in light of Israel’s preparation ahead of its encounter with the great threat.

Shalit swap based on ‘ultimate value of human life,’ rabbis say – CNN Belief Blog – CNN.com Blogs.

By Richard Allen Greene, CNN

Israel’s government approved an extraordinary deal Tuesday night – releasing more than 1,000 Palestinians from prison, including hundreds serving life sentences for attacks on Israelis, in exchange for a single slender young Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.

But the exchange of 1,027 inmates for a single captive does make sense in a Jewish context, Rabbi Arik Ascherman explained Wednesday.

“Judaism places ultimate value on human life. Therefore in the Jewish tradition, in Jewish law, redeeming captives trumps just about everything else,” said Ascherman, of Rabbis for Human Rights. “It takes priority over anything else you can possibly do.”

Jews around the world greeted the news that Shalit would be released after spending more than a fifth of his life in captivity with overwhelming joy, said William Daroff of the Jewish Federations of North America.

“We have prayed for his release. We have met with his parents, we have sat with his family in their tent outside the prime minister’s residence, we have marched for Gilad’s release,” he said.

“When I announced the news of Gilad’s forthcoming release at a reception with Jewish leaders on Capitol Hill this afternoon, it was met by tears, applause, and a spontaneous prayer of thanks,” he told CNN late Tuesday.

“Jews across the world have been pining for Gilad Shalit’s release for over five years,” he added.

Many have left an empty chair in honor of him at their seders – the family meal marking the beginning of Passover – and have marched for him, met with his parents and supported them in their protest, Daroff said.

“We are indeed thankful that Gilad Shalit will soon return to his family and to the Jewish people. It is long overdue,” he said.

But the exchange is not without controversy, said Ascherman.

“There has been a very, very difficult debate about this and similar cases over the years,” he said.

There is a question in Jewish law about whether it’s moral to free a captive in a deal that could potentially endanger other lives – as many Israelis fear will happen when Palestinians who have killed Israelis are released.

Ascherman is in favor of the deal.

“On the one hand, we have somebody who – if he isn’t redeemed – faces death or danger or captivity, versus a theoretical possibility that someone could be harmed if these people go back to terror,” he said.

“I would say it is possible to redeem the prisoner you definitely know,” he argued. “But it’s certainly a terrible dilemma and Israelis are coming down on both sides.”

Rabbi Jonathan Rosenblum is not certain the swap for Shalit is wise.

He too cites Jewish law, or halacha, and says the literature is so vast that there’s no clear answer.

“Unfortunately there is an abundance of halachic literature about the redemption of captives,” he said.

He cited the example of the 13th-century German Rabbi Meir ben Baruch, known as the Maharam of Rothenburg, who refused to allow the Jewish community to pay a ransom for him when he was held by the Emperor Rudolph.

“He feared that his ransom would encourage any cash-strapped person to grab a hostage. You can’t create an incentive for kidnapping,” the rabbi said.

“He did not allow the community to redeem him. He died in jail,” said Rosenberg, an ultra-Orthodox rabbi and writer. “The idea is that you shouldn’t encourage further kidnappings.”

The precedent still applies, he argued.

“You see in any Latin American country in which captives are ransomed, it becomes a major criminal activity,” he said.

But he, too, circled back to the value Judiasm places on human life.

“However one arrives at the balance in this case, the redemption of captives is a tremendous value,” he said.

He said one of Israel’s most important rabbis, Shas party spiritual mentor Ovadiah Yosef, had backed the Shalit exchange, and that government ministers must have discussed it with him before it was announced.

“The Shas party would not have voted for it otherwise,” he said.

“A friend of mine in the gym the other day asked me why so many government ministers have been going to see Rabbi Yosef,” he said. “This has obviously been in the works for some time.”

CNN’s Paul Colsey and Michael Schwartz contributed to this report.

Evidence of Iranian plot to kill envoy is overwhelming, Saudi prince says.

Al Arabiya

Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Saudi Arabian Prince Turki called for the Iranian authorities to help bring those responsible for the assassination plot to justice. (Photo by Reuters)

inShare0

Evidence that Iran was behind a plot to kill the Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington is ‘overwhelming’, a former chief of Saudi intelligence services said on Wednesday.

‘The burden of proof and the amount of evidence in the case is overwhelming and clearly shows official Iranian responsibility for it,’ Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal told an industry conference in London.

‘This is unacceptable. Somebody in Iran will have to pay the price, and that price will have to be on the terms acceptable to the norms and practices in Iran and other countries,’ Prince Turki said.

U.S. authorities said on Tuesday they had broken up a plot by two men linked to Iran’s security agencies to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir. One was arrested last month while the other was believed to be in Iran.

Iran has denied the charges and expressed outrage at the accusations.

Prince Turki called for the Iranian authorities to help bring those responsible for the assassination plot to justice.

‘Whoever is responsible for this (in) the Iranian government will hopefully be brought to justice by the Iranian authorities, no matter how high the level of that person is.’

‘Clearly this is an act ˗˗ how should I put it? ˗˗ so criminal in its intent, to devise a plot to assassinate a representative of one country in another country and to use drug barons and other such characters in order to achieve that. It is beyond description.’

The motive for the alleged plot was not clear. Iran has in the past assassinated its own dissidents abroad, but an attempt to kill an ambassador would be a highly unusual departure.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are bitter regional rivals, but they maintain diplomatic ties and even signed a security agreement in 2001. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Riyadh in 2007.

Ali Larijani, Iran’s parliament speaker, said the ‘fabricated allegations’ aimed to divert attention from Arab uprisings Iran says were inspired by its own Islamic revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed Shah.

‘America wants to divert attention from problems it faces in the Middle East, but the Americans cannot stop the wave of Islamic awakening by using such excuses,’ Larijani said.

U.S. President Barack Obama called the alleged conspiracy a ‘flagrant violation of U.S. and international law’.

Meanwhile the European Union voiced “grave concern” over the alleged Iranian plot, warning it could have serious international implications.

“Should the facts be confirmed, this would constitute a major breach of international law with serious international implications,” said Maja Kocijancic, spokeswoman for EU chief diplomat Catherine Ashton.

“We call on the government of Iran to fully cooperate with the U.S. justice system,” she told a news briefing.

The EU is following developments “very closely” and officials are in touch with their U.S. counterparts, Kocijancic said.

“We have taken note with grave concern the information that was provided by the U.S. Justice Department regarding this alleged participation of two Iranian individuals in a plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., and alleged involvement of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps,” she said.

“We trust the U.S. justice system will rapidly bring full clarity to this alleged criminal act,” she added.

The EU has slapped a raft of sanctions against Iranian officials over human rights violations and the Islamic republic’s refusal to halt controversial nuclear activities.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 12, 2011, 10:52 AM (GMT+02:00)

Iranian-American Mansour Arbabsiar caught redhanded

Washington Wednesday, Oct. 12, published a worldwide travel advisory warning US citizens to beware of Iranian-instigated terrorist attacks following the uncovering of an Iran-directed plot to assassinate Saudi Arabian ambassador Adel Al-Jubeir and bomb the Saudi and Israeli embassies.

The US holds Iran accountable for its actions, said Attorney General Eric Holder, following which Tehran turned to the UN Secretary General to accuse the US of warmongering.
US officials are deeply concerned that Tehran may not take lying down Washington’s charge that the Revolutionary Guards’ Al Qods Brigades were complicit in the assassination plot or the success of a prisoner exchange deal releasing the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity.

After being caught out, Iran is behaving as though it is under threat of war, its fury fueled by the US-Egyptian-Israeli-Hamas prisoner deal which threatens to cut the Islamic Republic out of Palestinian affairs and curtail its influence in the Gaza Strip, an important outpost.

The Washington advisory issued Wednesday said: “The US government assesses that this Iranian-backed plan to assassinate the Saudi ambassador may indicate a more aggressive focus by the Iranian government on terrorist activity against diplomats from certain countries, to include possible attacks in the United States.”

With a valuable Middle East holding about to be lost, Iran is capable of unleashing terrorists for acts that would force the hands of the United States and Israel. By drawing Hamas into such operations, Tehran would seek to torpedo the Shalit deal a moment before its consummation.

Sources in Washington therefore criticized Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for jumping the gun by his announcing the deal Tuesday for domestic political kudos. “Prisoner swaps are counted successful only after or during the fact,” said one official.

Other Western intelligence sources commented that by letting the cat out of the bag a week in advance, Israel gave Iran and Hizballah time to sabotage it. Both maintain a strong presence of undercover agents in the Gaza Strip who are fully capable of blowing away the deal Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal struck with Israel in the framework of an accord with the United States for packing up his Hamas bureau and command centers and moving them out of Damascus.

As Israelis joyously celebrated news of the forthcoming release of their soldier from five years in Hamas captivity, US officials in Washington released details of the plot instigated by Iran to murder Saudi ambassador Al-Jubeir, one of King Abdullah’s closest advisers.
US Attorney General Holder and FBI Director Robert Mueller named Iranian-American Mansour Arbabsiar, 56,and a second man, Gohlam Shakuri, an Iranian official, in a five-count criminal complaint filed Tuesday afternoon in the federal court in New York. It included counts of conspiracy to kill a foreign official and conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction, a bomb.
Shakuri is still at large in Iran. Holder identified him as an Iran-based member of the Al Qods force.
The complaint described a conversation in which Arbabsiar was allegedly directing the informant to kill the Saudi ambassador and said the assassination could take place at a restaurant. When the informant feigned concern about Americans who also eat at the restaurant, Arbabsiar said he preferred if bystanders weren’t killed but, “Sometimes, you know, you have no choice, is that right?”
The Attorney General said that the plan was “conceived, sponsored and was directed from Iran” by a faction of the government and called it a “flagrant” violation of U.S. and international law. “The US is committed to holding Iran accountable for its actions,” Holder said.

US officials disclosed that Arbabsiar met twice in July with a DEA informant in the northern Mexico city of Reynosa, and negotiated a $1.5 million payment for the assassination of the Saudi ambassador. As a down payment, officials said Arbabsiar wired two amounts of $49,960 on Aug. 1 and Aug. 9 to an FBI undercover bank account after he had returned to Iran.

Those officials stressed that had the plotters succeeded in assassinating a foreign diplomat on US soil, it would have been deemed an act of war. Its actual planning too was an act of Iranian aggression against the United States.

Alleged plot is uncharacteristically bold – The Washington Post.

U.S. aims to “unite the world” against Iran – CBS News.

(CBS/AP)

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration plans to leverage charges that Iran plotted to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States into a new global campaign to isolate the Islamic republic.

“It’s critically important that we unite the world in the isolation of and dealing with the Iranians,” Vice President Joe Biden said on “The Early Show” Wednesday. “That’s the surest way to be able to get results.”

U.S. officials say the administration will lobby for the imposition of new international sanctions as well as for individual nations to expand their own penalties against Iran based on allegations that Iranian agents tried to recruit a purported member of a Mexican drug cartel to kill the Saudi envoy on American soil.

Biden also said that U.S. action against Iran could go beyond sanctions, but added that “we’re not going there yet.”

Holder: Iran aimed to bomb Saudi ambassador
Iran rejects U.S. plot claim as “childish”
Read the criminal complaint (PDF)

“This really, in the minds of many diplomats and government officials, crosses a line that Iran needs to be held to account for,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told The Associated Press in an interview Tuesday. She said she and President Barack Obama want to “enlist more countries in working together against what is becoming a clearer and clearer threat” from Iran.

Britain’s government said Wednesday it was consulting with the U.S. and others over new international sanctions against Iran. “We would support any measures that help hold Iran accountable for its actions,” said Steve Field, spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron.

Clinton and other U.S. officials said the alleged plot is a gross violation of international law and further proof that Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, a label Washington has for decades applied to the Iranian government. The officials said it also underscores concerns that despite its denials Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian atomic energy program.

“The idea that they would attempt to go to a Mexican drug cartel to solicit murder-for-hire to kill the Saudi ambassador? Nobody could make that up, right?” Clinton said shortly after U.S. prosecutors accused two suspected Iranian agents of trying to murder Saudi envoy Adel Al-Jubeir. The purported plan was to carry out the assassination with a bomb attack while Al-Jubeir dined at his favorite restaurant.

U.S. issues terror alert after foiled Iran plot
The Quds: Iran’s shadowy terrorist trainers

Mr. Obama called al-Jubeir on Tuesday to declare that the foiled assassination plot was a “flagrant” violation of U.S. and international law, the White House said. The president expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and said he was committed to ensuring the security of diplomats in the United States. White House press secretary Jay Carney disclosed broad outlines of the call in a statement.

Iran’s parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, called the Justice Department’s claims a “childish game.”

“These are cheap claims. By giving it a wide media coverage, it was evident that they are trying to cover up their own problems,” Larijani told an open session of the parliament Wednesday.

“They (Americans) suffered a political stroke and learned that they had begun a childish game,” he said. “We have normal relations with the Saudis. There is no reason for Iran to carry out such childish acts.”

The State Department late Tuesday warned Americans around the world of the potential for terrorist attacks against U.S. interests. It said Iranian-sponsored attacks could include strikes in the United States.

Kessler: Bomb Iran Now for Washington Terror Plot.

The Iranian plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador and blow up the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Washington is a clear act of war says former Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Newsmax chief Washington correspondent Ronald Kessler — with Kessler adding the plot should be answered with a U.S attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The plot will “heighten the tensions throughout the Middle East… These are acts of war, and they need to be viewed and treated as such,” said Hoekstra, the former ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, told Newsmax in an exclusive interview.

Ignoring the magnitude of the plot by treating it as a criminal conspiracy — rather than an act of aggression by a rogue nation — would be appeasement on a par with America’s acts at the beginning of World War II, said Kessler, an intelligence expert and best-selling author of books on the CIA and FBI.

“This plot shows how foolhardy it is to continue to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon without taking it out,” said Kessler. “The U.S. should bomb their nuclear facilities before Iran gets a nuclear weapon which could be in the next year or two.”

Kessler described the plot to attack sites in our nation’s capital as “an act of war,” adding, “It’s the first overt sign of what everyone has feared, that Iran is a totally out-of-control government, an enemy and a threat.

“To just ignore it and be in denial, as the U.S. government has been, is risking our lives.”

Hoekstra also blasted the Obama administration’s attempts at appeasing Iran. But he stopped short of calling for an attack.

“This is a rogue nation,” he said. “They are developing nuclear weapons. They are an outlaw state. And for them to undertake, participate, or lead this type of effort shouldn’t be surprising at all.

“What should be surprising is the Obama administration’s reaction to this regime in Iran since they’ve been in office,” he added. “Remember, when there was the Green Revolution developing in Iran, it was the Obama administration that tamped it down and refused to give it any support. Their refusal to recognize the threat from Iran — that’s the problem here.”

Added Mike Rogers, who replaced Hoekstra as chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligenc: “This is dangerous new territory for Iran. It is the latest in a series of aggressive actions – from their nuclear program to state sponsorship of terrorism, from complicity in killing our soldiers in Iraq to now plotting hostile acts on U.S. soil. This episode underscores the need for concerted international unity to confront Iran.”

Director Robert Mueller said many lives could have been lost in the plot to kill the ambassador with bombs in the U.S. But Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said no explosives were actually placed and no one was in any danger because of the informant’s cooperation with authorities.

Kessler said that in an interview he had with Dick Cheney, the former vice-president had said he believed Israel would strike Tehran’s nuclear facilities if the U.S. refused. “But it would be much better if the U.S. did it because otherwise we are going to be in a position where we are going to be held hostage to Iran threatening to detonate a nuclear weapon on our soil unless we give in to whatever demands they might have.”

Ahmadinejad has described the alleged links with his government as “a fabrication,” but Kessler said nothing he says can be trusted. “He is basically nuts,” he said. “That’s what we had with Adolf Hitler – a raving lunatic.

“I would put Ahmadinejad in the same bracket as Hitler, definitely. Nobody thought Hitler would carry out any of his threats. We allowed Germany to re-arm despite the Armistice after World War I and look what we got – millions of deaths.

“We have the same people in denial, people who are isolationists in the United States who didn’t want to go after Nazi Germany and the result was World War II, so it’s the same situation. If we don’t learn from history we are going to repeat it.”

Kessler described the foiled plot as “proof that Ahmadinejad has no compunction about engaging in an act of war with the United States.
“They have the capability of developing a nuclear weapon and we simply cannot take a chance that he is going to develop and use it.”

But, he said the United States can avoid a full-fledged war with Iran. “We would just limit the bombing to their nuclear facilities and not go after their population or their military forces.

“But we have to protect ourselves, we have to do what we have to do.”

Alleged Iran plot could have been trigger for war in Middle East | World news | The Guardian.

State-sponsored or a rogue act, the killing of Saudi ambassador in the US would have ensured the Middle East went up in flames

The US case accuses the Quds Force of being behind the plot. If true, such an act would have required a direct order from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, above. Photograph: Rouzbeh Jadidoleslam/AP

Whoever was behind the Washington plot was ready to start a war in the Middle East. The region is already on the brink of conflict over Iran‘s nuclear programme, with Israel increasingly twitchy over the progress Tehran is making towards a capacity to make nuclear weapons.

Leaked US State Department cables also make clear that the Saudi king, Abdullah, has repeatedly urged the US to “cut off the head of the snake” and attack Iran.

Against that backdrop, the assassination of the Saudi ambassador in Washington, with mass American casualties and perhaps an attack on the Israeli embassy too, would have ensured that the region went up in flames.

The US accuses the Quds Force (QF), the external operations wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, of being behind the plot. Given the hierarchy of the Iranian regime, such a huge undertaking would have required a direct order from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who personally controls the QF.

Khamenei’s involvement would be surprising, to say the least. Throughout his tenure – since the death of the Islamic republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei in 1989 – he has shown himself to be highly cautious and devoted to entrenching the power of the clerical regime.

Meir Javendafar, an Iranian-Israeli, said: “Khamenei’s first priority is regime stability, and then a distant second, safeguarding the nuclear programme.”

One speculative explanation circulating on Tuesday night was that Khamenei feels so threatened by internal opposition that he would provoke a foreign attack to allow himself to strengthen his grip on the country. But the opposition Green movement is currently in abeyance, and the nuclear programme is advancing steadily with little threat of concerted international action, or much global support for an Israeli strike.

The plot is also out of character for the QF. The unit is well-funded and has considerable freedom of action abroad. It is suspected of involvement in the bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires in 1994, the funding and arming of Hezbollah in Lebanon, of Shia militias in Iraq, and even the Taliban in Afghanistan. In 2008, the head of the QF, Kassim Suleimani sent the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus a message in which he said, according to Petraeus, that he controlled Iranian foreign policy in the region.

However, to extend those operations to US territory would represent a significant leap in scope and ambitions. The way the plot was conducted would also suggest that the ruthlessly efficiently QF had lost its touch, being clumsy enough to transfer money from accounts under its control directly to US bank accounts.

Robert Baer, a former CIA agent with long experience of observing the QF, said: “This stinks to holy hell. The Quds Force are very good. They don’t sit down with people they don’t know and make a plot. They use proxies and they are professional about it. If Kassim Suleimani was coming after you or me, we would be dead. This is totally uncharacteristic of them.”

Another possibility is that this is a rogue operation, perhaps organised by a faction inside the QF, without the Supreme Leader’s blessing. There is an argument that it suited the purposes of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who recently lost a bloodless power struggle with Khamenei.

If the attack succeeded, it would set in train events dramatic enough to turn the rigid, dusty hierarchy of the clerical republic on its head, giving Ahmadinejad the chance to seize the advantage.

Or the plotters could be fanatics inside the military establishment, bent on bringing the Revolutionary Guard to the top of the regime pyramid, beginning an open race to develop a nuclear weapon and confronting Israel directly.

“If this is a bunch of crazies, then anything is possible,” Baer said.

All such possibilities are speculative. They would fundamentally reshape the Islamic Republic, and yet – for Iran experts – they are scarcely any more far-fetched that the idea that the Iranian establishment was behind a plot as brazen and reckless as this.

The thwarting of the plot almost certainly averted a conflict, but regional tension will escalate nevertheless. Any remote hope of resumed nuclear talks is dead for now. More sanctions and UN Security Council resolutions will be on the table instead.

Conceivably, that could break Khamenei’s will to press on with the nuclear programme, and produce a compromise deal that defuses the threat of conflict.

Or it could just as plausibly convince him to accelerate the programme, persuaded that the regime’s enemies are closing in. In that case, this extraordinary plot could yet succeed in sparking a new conflict in a very fragile region.

Iranian Terror: Nothing New | FrontPage Magazine.

The Iranian-backed terror plot targeting the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States, along with multiple targets throughout South and Central America, should come as no surprise. Iran has always sought measures to jeopardize U.S., Israeli, and Saudi interests. U.S. authorities should be praised for their interdiction of this activity. This was not the first, nor will it be the last, attempt that the Iranians undertake to kill Americans and our allies through terrorism.

Below are just a handful of the more significant atrocities perpetrated by Iran against the U.S. and our allies:

1979—U.S. diplomats were taken hostage in Tehran held for more than one year.

1983–Iranian supported Hezbollah detonated a VBIED killing over 241 U.S. service members in Lebanon.

1984—William Buckley was taken hostage by Iranian terrorists and was later killed by the Revolutionary Guard Corp.

1985—U.S. Navy Underwater Diver Robert Stethem was brutally murdered on TWA flight 727.

1992—Israeli embassy in Argentina was attacked by Iranian operatives leaving more than 250 injured and 20 killed.

1995—The Amia Jewish Center was targeted with an explosive killing 85 leaving over 230 injured—Al Quds force commander Vahidi was behind the execution of the attack.

1996—Iranian supported Hezbollah in Hijaz detonated a VBIED at Khobar Towers killing 19 service members.

2003—Reports that Al Qaeda​ was operating in Iran through protection of Al Quds forces to engage in operations throughout Iraq and Afghanistan against U.S. service members.

20010—Substantial signs of Iranian infiltration into the United States were identified on the U.S. southern border—Congresswoman Sue Myrick cried for investigations with no resolve.

2011—Iran threatens U.S. coastal waters through articulating its desires to send its naval vessels on patrol around North America.

Evidence proves Iran’s hatred towards the United States, Israel, and its Sunni rival Saudi Arabia. U.S. politicians have known for several years that Iran has engaged in a very unique proxy war in Iraq. Such activities fuels Iraqi Shiite insurgents threatening U.S. forces with advanced shape charged IED’s yet very little has been done against the Shiite nation state.

Sanctions have been enforced on Iran due to its nuclear program yet they continue to laugh in our face. Today, the threat has become a reality on our own U.S. soil. Arrests have been made but that does not mean the threat has vanished.  Iran’s behavior has a pattern—a pattern that can only change with austere corrective measures.