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DEBKAfile Special Report October 8, 2011, 6:11 PM (GMT+02:00)

Slain Syrian Kurdish leader Mashaal Tammo

Targeted assassinations now dominate Bashar Assad’s savage confrontation with the popular opposition to his rule. Friday, Oct. 7, Mashaal Tammo, 53,  the popular head of the opposition Kurdish Future Party and former member of parliament, was murdered by masked men who burst into his home in Qamishli, northern Syria. At his funeral attended by 50,000 mourners, clashes with security forces left five people dead.
For the first time in seven months since President Bashar Assad embarked on his bloody crackdown on dissent, the White House has called on him to “step down now before taking his country farther down this very dangerous path.”

Spokesman Jay Carney’s wording implied that Syria was set on the path to civil war in the wake of the murder of Mashaal Tammo, the popular head of the opposition Kurdish Future Party and former member of parliament. Friday, Oct. 7, killing him and seriouslyl injuring his son.

Even after Moscow along with Beijing vetoed UN sanctions against the Syria,  Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Friday that the Syrian leadership would have to go if it was incapable of conducting reforms and did not stop shooting demonstrators.
While the Syrian News Agency attributed the murder to “an armed terrorist group,” debkafile‘s intelligence sources disclose it was the work of a death squad run by the Syrian Air Force Intelligence Directorate commanded by Jamil Hassan. The largest and most powerful of Syria’s “intelligence” branches, this directorate’s function is not espionage but safeguarding the Assad family at home and abroad. A SAFID officer is therefore posted in every Syrian Arab Airlines office outside the country.
On the background leading up to the assassination, debkafile reports:

Meshaal Tammo stood out as one of the most innovative and audacious leaders of the anti-Assad opposition movement. He was also one of the most principled. Although elected to the Syrian National Council, the new opposition leadership established in Istanbul last week, he refused to travel to Turkey for a role in the external campaign against the regime telling his followers that this was a Syrian revolt in which foreign elements should not be involved
Four months earlier, he declined to join the “reformist delegation” Assad invited to Damascus in July, ostensibly to discuss political reforms which turned out to be sham.
He let it be known that Syria’s 2.5 million Kurds – 11 percent of the population, mostly Sunnis and the largest non-Arab minority – did not support the Assad regime but were not in active revolt against it. The Kurdish minority held occasional quiet rallies in its areas but abstained from violent rioting. This was a big help to Assad: It meant he could avoid detaching military and security forces for quelling Kurdish outbreaks and focus on the crackdown of uprisings in other parts of the country.
Yet the Tammo assassination could not have taken place without the personal say-so of Bashar Assad. So why did he condemn the Kurdish leader to be assassinated at this time?

1.  Two weeks ago, armed Syrian rebels began to pick off prominent regime officials in Aleppo, Idlib, Homs and on their travels on the highways linking them. Among the victims were senior medical hospital staff and university lecturers who were suspected of informing the authorities of the presence of wounded protesters in the hospitals and fingering anti-government student protesters.
Sunday, Oct. 2, armed men murdered the son of Syria’s Grand Mufti Ahmad Hassoun, a high-profile Assad supporter, and a senior university professor. They were riding in the same car when it was attacked.
The Tammo assassination was the regime’s reprisal for the two deaths.
The contest between the regime and the opposition has shifted in the last two weeks from street confrontations between massed protesters and government forces backed by tanks  – a contest in which Assad has more or less gained the upper hand – to a shadow war of reciprocal targeted assassinations of prominent figures on both sides.

2. Like many other personages in the Middle East, the late Kurdish leader also served intelligence agencies in clandestine, backdoor capacities.  Because there are many  Syrian fighters in the Turkish rebel Kurdish Workers Party, the PKK,  Tammo often acted as its go-between with the Turkish intelligence agency, the MIT, in an effort to end Ankara’s war on the Kurds or at least douse the flames.

By cutting this valuable channel of communications between Turkey and the PKK, Bashar Assad wrought his revenge on Ankara for the Erdogan government’s policy against him. He was especially incensesd by the big mobilization exercise the Turkish army is staging on the Syrian border up until Thursday, Oct. 13.
debkafile‘s military sources report that by striking down a Kurdish leader, Assad may find he is playing with fire. The clashes Saturday at his funeral attended by a vast crowd of angry Kurds demanding the Syrian ruler’s overthrow may spark internecine violence in Syria and across the Kurdish populations stretching across Iraq, Iran and Turkey in support of their Syrian brothers.

Mediterranean Tensions Challenge U.S.-Turkey Ties – WSJ.com.

By JAY SOLOMON in Washington and MARC CHAMPION in Istanbul

WASHINGTON—Escalating tensions in the Mediterranean are complicating the U.S.-Turkey alliance at a time when President Barack Obama views Ankara as central to helping the U.S. manage the Middle East’s political upheavals.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton privately has pressed Turkish officials to back off from their threats to send warships to waters around Cyprus in a dispute over energy deposits, according to U.S. officials. The top American diplomat cautioned that any escalation could jeopardize U.S. interests in the Mediterranean, as the gas fields are being jointly developed by Cyprus and Houston-based Noble Energy Inc.

U.S. officials also are concerned by Turkish threats to deploy naval vessels to accompany flotillas headed to the Palestinian territories, which could heighten the potential for a military conflict between Turkey and Israel, both close U.S. allies. American diplomats have worked to broker a rapprochement between Turkey and Israel, but officials in the White House and State Department acknowledge the rift could endure.

Some strategists in Washington and Europe are calling on the Obama administration to lay down stricter red lines in the Mediterranean, by using more aggressive diplomacy and the U.S. Navy. This is seen as crucial for guarding against any miscalculations by Turkey, Israel or Cyprus, though they acknowledge such steps could anger Ankara.

“I don’t think the Turks are intent on starting hostilities, but you never know what can happen in this environment,” said Morton Abramowitz, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey. He added that Washington needs to be up-front with Ankara and tell them that if conflict breaks out between Turkey and Israel, “We’ll choose Israel.”

Turkish officials stressed in interviews they aren’t seeking a war with either Cyprus or Israel, and said Turkey has been forced to take action to guard against provocative steps by others. “Look, nobody wants any disasters here. We are aware of the situation,” said a senior Turkish official.

Mr. Obama has cultivated Turkey as a major strategic partner since coming into office in 2009. White House officials say the U.S. president speaks regularly with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to coordinate on the political transformation in the Middle East and North Africa. And the Obama administration hailed Ankara’s decision last month to house a North Atlantic Treaty Organization radar facility, which is focused on Iran’s long-range missiles.

“Turkey is a NATO ally, a great friend and a partner on a whole host of issues,” Mr. Obama said prior to a meeting with Mr. Erdogan last month.

Still, the deepening dispute between Turkey and Cyprus over energy exploration has placed Washington squarely in the middle.

Tensions flared last month when the Cypriot government announced that Noble Energy would begin drilling for gas in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Ankara doesn’t recognize Cyprus’s government and said the energy exploration undercuts prospects for a United Nations-backed process aimed at reunifying the island. Cyprus was divided into ethnic-Greek and Turkish enclaves in 1974, after Turkey invaded the island following a Greece-inspired coup.

In recent weeks, Turkey has dispatched naval vessels into this economic zone, including frigates and gunboats, according to senior Cypriot officials. They said these moves are a violation of international law and aimed at intimidating Cyprus and preventing Noble from moving ahead with developing the gas fields. Cyprus’s government is calling on the U.N, U.S. and European Union to increase pressure on Ankara to pull out of Cypriot waters.

“The gravity of the problem stems from the threats that are being voiced, nearly daily, by the Turkish leadership,” said Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, in an interview.

Turkish officials said the international community should be focused on the Cypriot actions, which they believe are aimed at undermining the U.N. talks.

More recently, Turkey also began exploring for energy deposits in Cypriot waters. “We just need to make a point… to show the Greek Cypriots that they don’t own the whole island,” said the Turkish official.

Continuing tensions between Turkey and Israel are also undercutting U.S. efforts to stabilize the Middle East. Once close allies, Turkey and Israel have been locked in a growing war of words in the wake of Israel’s military action last year against an international aid flotilla headed for the Gaza Strip. The operation killed eight Turkish nationals and one Turkish-American.

For months, the Obama administration has worked to ease tensions between Israel and Turkey. But the process broke down after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government refused to apologize to Ankara for the flotilla deaths. Turkey cut military ties with Israel and downgraded diplomatic relations, saying it would use its navy to protect future aid flotillas headed toward Gaza.

On Friday, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davatoglu reiterated that threat, but specified that it applied to Turkish vessels in international waters.

Some Turkey analysts believe Mr. Erdogan is bluffing. But there are increasing fears that the Turkish leader, now among the most popular in the Muslim world, could have staked a position that will be hard to back away from. And they note that Washington would be likely be dragged into any conflict.

“At some point, the U.S. is going to have to say: This rhetoric is too much,” said Henri Barkey, a Turkey scholar at Lehigh University.

Exclusive: War is only option to topple Syrian leader: colonel | Reuters.

(Reuters) – The most senior officer to defect from Syria’s armed forces has said there is no option but to topple President Bashar al-Assad by force and he was directing a military uprising against the Syrian leader from within Turkey.

Colonel Riad al-As’aad, who is now living under Turkish government protection in Hatay province on the Syrian border, said some 15,000 soldiers, including officers, had already deserted, and he was waiting to move his command inside Syria.

As’aad, A slim, softly-spoken man dressed in civilian clothes and open-collared shirt, said rebel soldiers were forming brigades around the country who were setting up ambushes against government forces to prevent them entering villages.

Morale in the Syrian army, he said, was low.

“Without a war, he will not fall. Whoever leads with force, cannot be removed except by force,” As’aad told Reuters in a Syrian refugee camp in Hatay.

“The regime used a lot of oppressive and murderous tactics so I left, so that I will be the face outside for the command inside, because we have to be in a secure area and right now there is no safety in all of Syria,” he said.

As’aad sat in the shade of a tree as Syrian refugee children laughed and played in the background. Music rang out from a nearby tent that served as a makeshift school.

Like most of the military, al-As’aad is Sunni Muslim; but the command is in the hands of officers from Assad’s Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam that also dominates the security apparatus and the ruling elite in the majority Sunni country.

As’aad, who has been in Turkey for more than two months, is under constant guard by Turkey’s gendarmerie and his exact location is kept secret for his own security.

“We’re in contact with defectors on a daily basis. We coordinate on a daily basis with officers. Our plan is to move to Syria. We’re waiting to find a safe place which we can turn into a leadership base in Syria,” he said.

Damascus portrays the rebel soldiers as traitors serving the enemies of Syria.

Some of the fighting has come close to the Turkish border and there has been speculation in Turkish media that if the flow of refugees became too great, Ankara could impose a ‘buffer zone’ on the Syrian side of the frontier — something it did in northern Iraq in the 1990s. Turkey denies any such plans.

Turkey’s open harboring of As’aad marks a further sharpening of its attitude toward President Bashar al-Assad, whom it had long seen as an ally.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has called for Assad to go and is drawing up sanctions that could hit the Syrian economy hard. He is expected to fly down to the Syrian border soon to make a speech at a refugee camp for Syrians fleeing fighting.

“ONE ARMY”

Graying and clean-shaven, except for a mustache, As’aad reflected on the situation inside Syria, painting a picture of movement to and fro across the border.

“The army officer comes here only if he’s reached the stage of death or if he’s in very serious danger, so he is forced to enter Turkey . sometimes they don’t stay for too long and then re-enter Syria, depending on the security situation.”

“Today there was an attack on Jabal al-Zawi and the Ghab region and military jets bombarded civilians who had escaped to the mountains. Until now three have been martyred, and 27 are missing. I have the names of the martyrs,” he said, pulling out a folded piece of paper with three names scribbled in Arabic.

The 50-year-old colonel, who served as an engineer in Syria’s air force for 31 years, said the Syrian government had started to harass him and other officers when pro-democracy protests first started in Tunisia.

“During the revolution in Tunisia, the regime started getting ready. It felt there will be a revolution in Syria. So it (stepped up security), hired spies to harass us. We were always under surveillance,” he said.

As’aad said he was summoned to the air force intelligence department in Aleppo where he was coerced into confessing there were armed groups among his relatives because there were demonstrations in his village. It was after this that he deserted.

As’aad says he commands the Syrian Free Army, which he helped form after his defection and that they had joined forces with another rebel force, the Free Officers movement, which activists have said is led by Lieutenant Abdelrahman Sheikh inside Syria.

“We’re all one group, we’re all one army. We’re all waiting, the defecting brothers are working inside,” he said.

As’aad said 10-15,000 soldiers, out of the roughly 200,000-strong military, had defected all over the country and that desertions were continuing every day.

“The Syrian army’s morale is tired. Defections are happening daily . there are several units that have lost their function because of the defections,” he said.

“The regime is weakening and the biggest proof, is that they’re using air support in addition to tanks and artillery, that proves their weakness.”

Some opponents of Assad argue resistance should remain peaceful and that armed action could only worsen the situation.

“WE WILL FIGHT WITH OUR NAILS”

There are fears, including in Turkey, that an escalation of violence in Syria, particularly with an armed opposition, may lead to a sectarian civil war. But As’aad said while Assad’s rule was discriminatory, it would not lead to sectarian war.

“The regime depends on a sect … and it is a sectarian and discriminatory regime. But our people are wiser than that. All Syrians are one people, whether Alawite, Druze or Christian or even the Kurds. We respect them we consider them our family,” he said.

There had so far been no defections from Syria’s political elite as happened in Libya, As’aad said, because they were tied too closely through economic interests or positions.

As’aad said he did not want to see any foreign soldiers in Syria but that the international community should provide the rebels with weapons and enforce a no-fly zone.

“If they don’t give it to us, we will fight with our nails until the regime is toppled. I tell Bashar al-Assad, the people are stronger than you.

Iran tells Turkey: change tack or face trouble – Yahoo! News.

(Talk about irony….  JW)

Syria Funeral Shooting: Forces Open Fire On Mashaal Tammo Mourners.

BEIRUT — Security forces opened fire on tens of thousands of mourners who turned out Saturday for the funeral of a slain Kurdish opposition leader in northeastern Syria, killing at least two people, eyewitnesses said.

Activists said security forces also fired on a funeral procession in the Damascus suburb of Douma for three people who were killed a day earlier. Ten people were wounded, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The biggest crowds took to the streets of Qamishli, where people marched to mourn Mashaal Tammo, the prominent and charismatic Kurdish opposition figure who was gunned down Friday by masked gunmen. The slaying was the latest in a string of targeted killings in Syria as the country slides further into disorder, seven months into the uprising against President Bashar Assad.

“All of Qamishli is out today, the funeral is turning into a massive protest,” Kurdish activist and lawyer Mustafa Osso told The Associated Press by telephone. The grieving cries of fellow mourners could be heard in the background.

The mourners swelling through Qamishli’s streets called on Assad to step down, with chants of “Leave, Leave,” while others demanded the “execution of the president.” Osso said more than 50,000 people were in the procession.

Security forces opened fire on the crowd, killing two mourners and wounding several others, he said.

The Local Coordination Committees activist network also said at least one person was killed and others injured in the gunfire. The group said the city has been completely shut down after a general strike was declared to mourn Tammo.

It said security forces clashed with protesters trying to tear down a statue of Assad’s late father, Hafez Assad, who ruled Syria with an authoritarian grip until his death in 2000.

Tammo, a 53-year-old former political prisoner and a spokesman for the Kurdish Future Party, was also a member of the executive committee of the newly formed Syrian National Council, a broad-based front bringing together opposition figures inside and outside the country in an attempt to unify the deeply fragmented dissident movement.

A vocal regime opponent, Tammo had been instrumental in organizing anti-government protests in Qamishli in recent months.

It was not clear who carried out the killing. Some in the opposition said the regime was responsible for his assassination. Osso said Tammo had no enemies and blamed security forces, but others noted there was a power struggle between him and rival Kurdish parties.

State-run news agency SANA reported his killing by “four masked gunmen in a black car,” calling him a “national” opposition leader.

His death could spark violent protests in the Kurdish region at a time when Syria’s security forces already have their hands full in trying to stamp out dissent across much of the rest of the country. Kurds – the largest ethnic minority in Syria – make up 15 percent of the country’s 23 million people and have long complained of neglect and discrimination.

Assad granted citizenship in April to stateless Kurds in eastern Syria in an attempt to address some of the protesters’ grievances.

The White House condemned Tammo’s killing and said Assad must step down before he takes his country further “down this very dangerous path.”

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said Tammo was another victim of a “brutal regime of lawlessness.”

“The opposition’s determination won’t be crushed by violence. And the international pressure won’t diminish, but will increase further,” he added.

Tammo’s assassination was similar to other recent targeted killings in Syria by unknown gunmen, raising concerns the country might be sliding toward civil war. The most recent was the assassination of the son of Syria’s top Sunni cleric, who died in a hail of bullets outside the university where he studied earlier this week.

Several academics and physicists have also been shot dead by gunmen in the past month, most of them in the country’s restive central and northern regions.