WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 8, 2011, 6:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

Syrian tanks hunt Turkish command center at Jabal Al-Zawya

The Syrian ruler has ordered his military chiefs to get set to launch their biggest operation they have ever staged to once and for all destroy the protest movement bedeviling his regime for six months, debkafile‘s military sources report exclusively. All units are deployed around the protest centers  on full preparedness for coordinated strikes in the coming days and all leaves cancelled.
Assad’s preparations entail three additional steps:
1. He has filled the vacant position of deputy chief of staff with Gen. Ali Ayub, commander of the 1st Formation made up of the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th Divisions, deployed until now on the Golan Heights and Mt. Hermon borders with Israel. Its personnel have been left out of Assad’s military campaign against the opposition until now.

2. Those divisions, made up mainly or Sunni conscripts, have begun pulling back from their positions on the Syrian-Israeli border and are heading north.
For the first time, therefore, Assad feels he can safely send Sunni troops into battle against protesters and is not afraid to leave his borders undefended against an Israeli attack.

3. The Syrian president holds Erdogan responsible for authorizing the Turkish army and his National Intelligence Organization-MIT to set up a state-of-the-art command center for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood at Jabal al-Zawiya in the Syrian province of Idlib near the Turkey border. He believes it is working with a parallel command center on the Turkish side which directs the steps of Syrian protest tacticians against the Assad regime.

To settle its score with Ankara, Damascus this week stepped up military raids on towns and villages near the Turkish border, seeking out for destruction the Turkish MIT command center ahead of Assad’s final massive onslaught on opposition centers.
4.  Thousands of protesters turned out in Aleppo Tuesday, Sept. 6  for the first time in the anti-Assad uprising. Syria’s second largest city and its financial hub has therefore been included in Assad’s targets for his major offensive.

The Syrian ruler has also added Turkey’s Erdogan government to his list of enemies. Tuesday, debkafile discloses, Assad secretly ordered without warning  the total suspension of the Syrian-Turkish free trade treaty. Neither partner has revealed this decision, which our sources estimate will cost Turkey a trading loss of $5 billion per annum.

Assad’s move against Turkey had important implications for the balance of his confrontation with countrywide protest. The suspension of free trade with Turkey has hit Aleppo’s merchants in their pockets since most of their business came from trade with Turkey and finally brought them out against the regime.
It is therefore hard to fathom Assad’s motivation for striking Turkey at the risk of potentially raising Syria’s financial center against him when, for six months Aleppo’s trading and religious leaders took care to keep its five million inhabitants out of domestic strife.
One theory explains the Syrian ruler’s action by the discovery of weapons and funds for the protesters hidden in containers of Turkish goods delivered to Aleppo.

Analysis: Turkey’s gunboat diplomacy makes waves in region | Reuters.

Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan visits the Seyidka camp in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu August 19, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Omar Faruk

ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkey’s plan to flex its naval muscles in the eastern Mediterranean risks being perceived as an over-reaction in Ankara’s dispute with former ally Israel and as an assertion of regional power that could alienate even its new Arab admirers.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s ploy may fuel Western unease over Turkey’s reliability as a NATO partner and its penchant for actions designed to court popularity in the Muslim world.

Turkey’s mix of economic growth and secular democracy under an Islamist government has fascinated Arab countries eager for a new model, but even those in the throes of popular uprisings may feel qualms if Ankara starts throwing its military weight about.

Stung by Israel’s refusal to apologize over last year’s killing of nine Turks during an Israeli commando raid on an aid ship bound for Gaza, Erdogan said Turkish warships would be seen in waters where Israel’s navy operates, raising the risk of a clash between the once close allies.

Bolstered by a booming economy and unprecedented political stability at home, Turkey has seen its “soft power” rise in the region under Erdogan’s AK Party, rooted in political Islam.

Conservative on social and religious issues and liberal on economic ones, the AK government has cemented business ties in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa and pursued a foreign policy of “zero problems with neighbors” — a policy buffeted by the dispute with Israel and tensions with Syria.

But threats to deploy warships show that Turkey, a prickly NATO member and European Union candidate, is now tempted to use its military power to push its interests in a changing region.

“Erdogan is taking a very aggressive stance to assert Turkey’s status as a regional power instead of using the soft power we have seen until recently,” said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based security analyst.

“There is a sense in the AK Party that Turkey is a major regional power and that the Mediterranean is its sphere of influence. But NATO and the West increasingly see Turkey as a loose cannon,” he said.

“Turkey played its cards well in the past when it had good relations with everyone, but now it is playing them very badly.”

Jenkins said non-Arab Turkey behaving like a neighborhood bully would be regarded with grave concern by Arabs, who were subjects of the Ottoman empire for centuries.

“The Arabs distinguish between a Turkey that stands up to Israel and engages with them and a Turkey that wants to dominate the entire region,” Jenkins said.

Omer Taspinar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said Turkey might be using Israel as a convenient punching bag following a series of diplomatic setbacks and domestic failures, including the Kurdish problem.

Turkey’s ties with Syria, a former friend, are near breaking point — President Bashar al-Assad has defied Turkish calls for him to end a bloody crackdown on protesters. Shi’ite Iran, another close ally of Turkey, has reacted frostily to Ankara’s decision to host a NATO early-warning radar system.

“Turkey is going through a difficult period and Israel has given Erdogan the chance to demonstrate he is a strong leader in a strong country,” Taspinar said.

“Turkey has experienced a period of economic growth and political stability and it feels very powerful. But they don’t realize there is a price to pay for this saber-rattling.”

A larger presence of Turkish vessels in the eastern Mediterranean would be unsettling Greece and for the divided island of Cyprus as it eyes oil drilling exploration.

Turkey says oil deals granted by the Greek Cypriot government, which represents the island in the European Union, are illegal as the borders of Cyprus remain undetermined while Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots pursue reunification talks.

Turkey and Greece, also a NATO member, have a history of territorial disputes, and their navies were involved in a standoff in 1996 over an uninhabited islet in the Aegean Sea.

BALANCE OF FORCES

Turkey is NATO’s second biggest military and its navy is considered to be far superior to that of Israel, although the Jewish state is widely assumed to have submarines that carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

Israel has expanded patrols in the eastern Mediterranean to enforce the Gaza blockade it says is needed to prevent arms smuggling to the Palestinian group Hamas and to deter any Lebanese Hezbollah militant attack on offshore gas platforms.

Few Turkish analysts believe Turkey is planning to send frigates in open defiance of Israel’s blockade of Gaza, which the United Nations has declared legal, but their mere presence in international waters not far from Gaza could risk a clash.

It seems implausible that Turkey, as a NATO member, could get involved in actual hostilities with Israel.

NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Wednesday that the Turkish-Israeli relationship was a “bilateral matter” and urged the two to find ways to ease tensions.

However, Erdogan’s words that Turkish naval bases have “the power and opportunity to provide escorts,” suggesting that Ankara could put a future aid flotilla under its protection, set off alarm bells.

“They have created the conditions for another flotilla to challenge the blockade,” said Henri Barkey, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

“What is the Turkish navy going to do if another flotilla decides to go in? They would have to keep their promise and escort the flotilla. This puts the U.S. administration in a terrible position.”

President Barack Obama’s administration is keen to smooth ties between its two most important allies in the Middle East and U.S. diplomats are working in private to heal the rift.

CYPRUS

Some Turkish and Israeli analysts say that Turkey’s motive is not to seek a showdown with Israel over Gaza, but to build up a naval presence between Cyprus and Israel to create a sense of menace and scare investors away from the gas fields there.

Turkey has been chafing at Cypriot-Israeli energy deals, and the tensions with Israel could enable Ankara to send a message without making explicit threats.

“Turkey’s emphasis on freedom of navigation is also connected to the assessment that in the eastern Mediterranean there are natural gas deposits beyond what have already been discovered,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

Sinan Ulgen, from the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said Erdogan, known as a temperamental leader, is driven by public opinion.

Erdogan, who won a third consecutive term in office last June, has become a hero among Muslims for his stance against Israel and in favor of the Palestinians.

“It is very dangerous for a country when it starts to believe its own propaganda,” Jenkins said.

France accuses Syria of crimes against humanity as regime forces kill 23 people.

Al Arabiya

Thursday, 08 September 2011

A Syrian military tank takes position in a residential street in the flashpoint city of Homs, 100 miles northeast of Damascus. (Photo by AFP)

inShare3

Iran urges Assad to cease violent crackdown of Syria protest – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iranian president, longtime ally of the besieged Syrian leader, says Assad should negotiate with opposition, saying: ‘A military solution is never the right solution.’

By The Associated Press

Syrian President Bashar Assad should back away from his violent crackdown on protesters and enter talks with the opposition, Iran’s leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday.

“There should be talks” between the Syrian government and its opponents, Ahmadinejad said in a live interview in Tehran with Portuguese broadcaster Radiotelevisao Portuguesa.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, holds up the hand of his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad after he awarded Iran’s highest national medal to Assad, October 2, 2010.
	Photo by: AP

“A military solution is never the right solution,” Ahmadinejad said, according to a simultaneous Portuguese translation of his comments.

“We believe that freedom and justice and respect for others are the rights of all nations. All governments have to recognize these rights,” he said. “Problems have to be dealt with through dialogue.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said last month that Assad should answer the legitimate demands of his people.

“Other countries in the region can help the Syrian government and people to talk to each other with a view to resolving their differences and introducing the reforms that are needed,” Ahmadinejad said.

Iran, Damascus’ chief ally, has blamed the U.S. and Israel for instigating more than five months of protests in Syria.

The U.S. and other nations have accused Iran of helping Assad crush the uprising.

“Other countries have no right to interfere in … domestic discussions,” Ahmadinejad said, citing NATO’s intervention in Libya as an example of misguided actions.

Iranian president’s comments came as new reports claimed that Syrian security forces have unleashed a barrage of gunfire, killing at least 11 people and leaving thousands cowering in their homes,

Nine of those killed on Wednesday died in Homs, a hotbed of opposition to Assad’s autocratic regime. Two others were shot dead during raids in Sarameen, in northern Syria.

Iran warns over NATO’s anti-missile radar in Turkey | Updated News.

TEHRAN – Iran’s defence minister on Tuesday criticised the pending deployment of a NATO early-warning radar system in Turkey, saying Tehran would not tolerate any aggression against its national interests.

The Turkish and U.S. governments said on Friday the radar system will help spot missile threats coming from outside Europe, including potentially from Iran. The system, provided by the United States, is to become operational later this year.

“The West claims the radar system (in Turkey) is to confront Iranian missiles but they should be aware that we will not tolerate any aggression against our national interests,” Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi was quoted by state TV as saying.

Muslim Turkey, with NATO’s second biggest military, has become a bigger player in the Middle East emboldened by its booming economy and a more Islamic identity, seeking stronger ties with Muslim countries in the Middle East, like Iran.

But Turkey, increasingly critical of Iranian ally Syria, has split with Iran recently over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s bloody crackdown on popular unrest in his country.

Vahidi warned Turkey over the radar system, which Ankara says is not against any specific country. “We regard the presence of America and the West as a troublesome and harmful presence for the Islamic countries,” Vahidi said.

Turkey has also sought stronger ties with Russia, which has said a NATO missile defence system could threaten its security if it develops the capability to down Russian nuclear missiles.

However, Russia’s NATO envoy said a radar system in Turkey would not threaten Russian security.

The United States and its allies are at odds with Iran over its nuclear programme, saying Tehran is trying covertly to develop atomic bombs. Iran denies this, saying it is enriching uranium only for electricity or other civilian purposes.

Israel and the United States have not ruled out military strikes on Iran if diplomatic means fail to stop it obtaining nuclear weapons. Iran refuses to recognise Israel.

Iranian officials have previously announced that the country’s domestically-produced missiles can reach Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. Iran says its response to any military attack will be “painful”.

Moscow unilaterally suspended the delivery of S-300 missiles to Iran after the United States and Israel expressed concern that the Islamic Republic could use the anti-aircraft system to shield its nuclear facilities.

Attrition: Loud And Generally Not Fatal.

September 6, 2011: In late August, Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza fired nearly 200 rockets and mortar rounds into south Israel. What was unusual about this was the large number of factory made 122mm rockets used (against more distant, heavily populated areas.) This resulted in higher than usual casualties, including three deaths. But, as is often the case, most (two out of three) of those deaths were not a direct result of the rockets. Two of the victims died while rushing for a bomb shelter. Both were elderly, tripped and fell, and suffered fatal injuries. The third victim suffered fatal wounds from a rocket. Heart attacks and strokes induced by rocket and mortar attacks are also counted.

The Palestinian rocket attacks had been around for a decade now, but got much worse once Israel pulled out of Gaza in August of 2005. This was a peace gesture that backfired. From 2001 to 2005, about 700 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel. Since the 2005 withdrawal, over 3,400 more rockets were fired into Israel. The rate of firings increased after Hamas took control of Gaza in June, 2007.

Hamas has been bringing in more factory made Iranian and Chinese made BM-21 and BM-12 rockets. Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas currently has in Gaza hundreds of factory-made BM-21 rockets, each with a range of 20-40 kilometers. They also have some shorter range (six kilometers), Russian designed B-12 rockets. These are not smuggled in much, because the locally made Kassam II has about the same range. However, the B-12 is more reliable (more reliable trajectory and fuze, so more are likely to land where aimed and explode.)

The B-12 is a 107mm, 19 kg (42 pound), 84 cm (33 inch) long rocket that is very popular with terrorists. This rocket has a range of about six kilometers and 1.35 kg (three pounds) of explosives in its warhead. Normally fired from a launcher, in salvoes of dozens at a time, when used individually, it is more accurate the closer it is to the target. This 107mm design has been copied by many nations, and is very popular with guerillas and terrorists because of its small size and portability. There is a Chinese BM-12 variant which has a smaller warhead and larger rocket motor. This version is supposed to have a range of about 12 kilometers.

The 122mm BM-21s weigh 68.2 kg (150 pounds) and are 2.9 meters (nine feet) long. These have 20.5 kg (45 pound) warheads, but not much better accuracy than the 107mm model. However, these larger rockets have a maximum range of 20 kilometers. Again, because they are unguided, they are only effective if fired in salvos, or at large targets (like cities, or large military bases or industrial complexes.) There are Egyptian and Chinese variants that have smaller warheads and larger rocket motors, giving them a range of about 40 kilometers.

The rocket attacks from Gaza have been remarkably ineffective, killing only 44 people (half from rockets, the rest by mortars) in ten years. Hamas has had to fire nearly a hundred rockets or mortar shells for each Israel soldier or civilian they have killed. Israeli counterfire killed or wounded a Palestinian for every three Palestinian rockets or mortar shells fired. Israeli fire was much more accurate, with most of the Palestinian casualties being terrorists or others involved in building or firing the rockets and mortars. Hamas has tried to get civilians killed, by storing rockets in residential areas, and firing them from those neighborhoods as well. Although Hamas believes in the concept of “involuntary martyrdom” (getting civilians killed for the cause, even if the victims are not willing), many of its chosen candidates are not eager to die. So civilians stay away from areas where the rockets are launched, and try to conceal the fact that rockets are hidden under their homes.

Meanwhile, up north in Lebanon, Hezbollah have stockpiled over 40,000 factory-made rockets, mainly BM-21s brought in from Iran via Syria. This is three times as many rockets as they had in the Summer of 2006, when over 4,000 rockets were fired into northern Israel, killing about fifty people, most of them civilians. Another 1,500 were wounded and 2,700 suffered from serious stress and anxiety. This was the same casualty pattern experienced in the south.  Over a thousand Lebanese died from Israeli counterattacks. Hezbollah and Hamas plan to launch a joint rocket attack on Israel eventually. The Israelis have been planning more effective countermeasures, which they have not been discussing openly. There is also the option of installing Iron Dome in the north, but that has not been assured yet.

Meanwhile, the only known weapon that can stop the short range rockets is the new Israeli Iron Dome and the older American Centurion, a U.S. Navy Phalanx autocannon designed to knock down anti-ship missiles. Centurion has been successful in shooting down mortar shells and short range rockets in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Israel has not bought any yet.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 6, 2011, 10:39 AM (GMT+02:00)

Gen. Eyal Eisenberg’s wake-up call

After just a month on the job as Home Front Commander, Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday, Sept. 5 of the increasingly peril of a total Middle East war in the wake of the Arab revolts and Israel’s rift with Turkey.

Stressing the long term, Eisenberg warned that the Arab Spring would likely evolve into “a radical Islamic winter” raising the potential for “total war in the Middle East” and the possible use of weapons of mass destruction.

His comments shocked Israel’s policy-makers and defense establishment out of their placidity into issuing a vehement denial of his predictions.
Eisenberg also revealed that Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip had recently acquired a new weapon. The million Israelis battered by 150 missiles in recent weeks had accordingly been advised to take shelter under two roofs – not just one.
debkafile‘s military sources recall that before Gen. Eisenberg made his dire prediction, chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz recently lectured to the IDF’s General Command on the danger of the Arab Spring fast degenerating into “an Arab autumn or winter.”

“There is no need to sow panic,” said the defense minister’s political adviser Amos Gilead in an early morning interview Tuesday, Sept. 6 in which he sharply contradicted the Home Front commander point by point with “the real facts.”
“Israel’s security situation has never been better,” said Gilead. “We have deterrence in the north and the south, the Arab regimes around us are stable” and “all we need do is take care that current situations don’t develop into threats.” Israel has broad leeway for action, he insisted, and plenty of time to prepare for the unexpected. “It is therefore not correct to say that we face total war.”

Asked about the potential use of unconventional weapons in war against Israel, the defense minister’s adviser was a lot less certain. While anxious to refute the Home Front Commander, the defense minister’s adviser still took care to hedge his bets.

“We must behave as though it is a weather forecast,” said Gilead. “We know weather forecasters can’t always be accurate and we are often surprised by unexpected rain and stormy weather. The same applies to national security forecasts.”
debkafile‘s military analysts point out that while Gen. Eisenberg’s outlook is substantially credible for the long term, the events rushing forward in Libya, Syria and Egypt and the uncertainty in Jordan are rapidly shrinking the foreseeable time scale to weeks and making his words a wakeup call, whereas Gilead’s words aim at obfuscating six pertinent facts:

1. The “stable regimes” he referred to are a myth: In Egypt the military rulers are not in control. The latest US intelligence assessments, as the defense ministry’s adviser is no doubt aware, register dismay over the discovery that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi extremist groups are assured of a two-thirds majority in elections for the presidency and parliament, for which the movement for toppling Hosni Mubarak fought so hard. The military rulers’ only hope of staying in power is to stage a second Egyptian revolution to suppress the drive for democracy. For now, they are playing ball with the Islamic extremists, a fact which Mr. Gilead has not revealed.

2.  This pattern applies equally to Israel’s security backyard in Sinai, where debkafile‘s intelligence and counter-terror sources report that the military rulers in Cairo have abandoned any attempt to root out terrorists despite their increasing use of this territory as a jumping-off base.
Not a single smuggling tunnel carrying arms to Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, contrary to reports appearing in the Israeli media.
For three weeks, Israel has maintained troops on high alert on its southern border with Egyptian Sinai and kept main highways closed to civilian traffic, since being forewarned of a large Palestinian Jihad Islami terrorist team from the Gaza Strip lying in wait to strike southern Israel from the Egyptian border. Egyptian security forces have not lifted a finger to interfere with their movements.
The supply of arms to the Gaza Strip has since the Egyptian revolution swelled to an unprecedented volume. It is bringing to Hamas and other terrorist groups quantities of surface missiles of greater range and power even than the Grads, which last month hit targets at a distance of 30 kilometers, such as Beersheba; F-7 anti-air and anti-tank missiles.
Nonetheless, Gilead referred to Israel’s situation as “never better” and lauded its deterrent capacity in the south.
3. He was just as smug about Israeli deterrence in “the north,” including the Lebanese border facing Hizballah.
4. In Syria, circumstances are so volatile that a war situation could ignite in hours.
5. In Jordan, the political and security ground under the throne is far from stable and while domestic unrest has scarcely broken surface, it could erupt at any time.
6. While Libya was never part of the Arab front line against Israel, its relevance to Israeli security is growing. Since NATO launched its operation to unseat Muammar Qaddafi in March, gunrunning from Libya is rife, channeling large quantities of Libyan arms by smuggling routes into the Gaza Strip and Sinai.
7. Iran is fast nearing nuclear weapon capability and missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
One of the greatest threats comes from the new regime the US, Britain, France and NATO are preparing to anoint in Tripoli. Since Qaddafi’s departure, the Libyan capital has fallen under the control of pro-Al Qaeda rebel elements and extremist Salafis. Their Western sponsors have put their trust in these extremists changing their spots and embracing moderation and democracy. This illusion they are liable to replicate in Cairo and Damascus. Israel would then be beset at all hands by avowedly hostile Islamist regimes whose ideology obliges them to wage jihad against the Jewish state.

Eisenberg tried to open Israeli eyes to the real perils around the corner, while Gilead made haste to close them.

Barak downplays likelihood of all-out war with… JPost – Defense.

    The day after OC Home Front Command Maj.-Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned of growing chances for an all-out war, Defense Minister Ehud Barak downplayed the threats to Israel, and said that he did not predict that any of the country’s enemies would initiate a large scale conflict in the near future.

“We do not see a reason for any of our adversaries to initiate a large scale conflict with Israel. I am also convinced that none of our enemies will dare use chemical weapons against Israel, not now and not in the future,” he said on a tour of the border with Syria Tuesday morning. “Our adversaries know very well why they should not even think of using chemical weapons against Israel.”

On Monday night held a conference in Tel Aviv that the ongoing upheaval in the Arab world raised the chances for an all-out war against Israel, as well as the use of weapons of mass destruction.

Turning to Syria, Barak said that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad was nearing its end but that it could take still several months for anything to happen. “On the other side of the border, the Assad family is slaughtering its people throughout Syria in an effort to survive. I believe that it will not help, and that the future of Assad’s regime is clear even if it will take several more months.”

Barak said “even if there will be a new reality or new situation in Syria that will be difficult to predict ahead of time, I hope it will be quiet and there’s no doubt that when his regime falls it will be a heavy blow to the entire radical front that is led by Iran and Hezbollah.”

Barak also weighed in on the current crisis with Turkey and said that even in a time of disagreement it was important that both countries worked together for the sake of the stability of the entire region.

IAF sets new guidelines for reconnaissance fli… JPost – Defense.

    Due to the ongoing instability in the Arab world, the Israel Air Force has instituted new guidelines for surveillance and reconnaissance flights in the region to minimize the risk that such flights will lead to a military escalation.

Under the new guidelines, only experienced and advanced pilots can fly the reconnaissance flights, which are conducted regularly over Lebanon. In addition, the flights can only be conducted when a senior officer is present in the IAF control room in Tel Aviv. Such flights are usually approved by the IDF Chief of General Staff.

“We need to consider the effect such flights can have, considering the changes in the region,” a senior officer said this week. “We understand that there is a short distance between a tactical mistake and a larger crisis.”

Israeli flights over Lebanon have been the source of continuous tension between Israel and Lebanon since the end of the Second Lebanon War five years ago. The flights are conducted by manned aircraft such as fighter jets as well as IAF unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition to Lebanon, Israeli aircraft also fly over the Red Sea where they track ships suspected of transferring weaponry to Hamas and Hezbollah.

Israel claims it needs to continue flying over Lebanon to track Hezbollah’s military buildup and particularly the flow of arms from Syria to the Iranian-backed guerrilla group. On Monday, as an example, Lebanese media said six Israeli planes flew over the Bekaa Valley, a known Hezbollah stronghold.

Israel’s concern is not just about the potential diplomatic fallout from such flights and how they could fuel already growing anti-Israel sentiment in the region, but also stems from concern that Hezbollah will receive advanced surface-to-air defense systems.

Media reports recently revealed Hezbollah was transferring advanced high quality weaponry that it had been storing in Syria to Lebanon. The move was made out of concern for the weaponry’s fate in the face of the ongoing unrest in the country and the possibility that President Bashar Assad, the group’s close ally, will be overthrown.

Hezbollah’s air defense systems are believed to have been recently boosted by the arrival last year of a sophisticated radar system to Syria.

The radar is perceived as a significant challenge for Israel’s continued operational freedom and is reportedly believed to be capable of providing Syria with early warning of Israeli sorties.

Iranians suspected in hacking of Mossad, CIA, MI-6 info – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

By forging security certificates, the hackers were also able to steal information from Google, Yahoo, Facebook and Twitter.

By Oded Yaron

Hackers thought to be of Iranian origin managed to steal security certificates from the websites of the Mossad, the CIA, and the Israeli internet portal Walla, according to a report by a security official for Mozilla, publishers of the popular web browser Firefox, whose website was also breached.

The Mozilla report also claimed that security certificates were stolen from British intelligence agency MI-6, Twitter, Yahoo, Facebook and others, as well. There are reports of 531 stolen certificates in total thus far, including a break-in to Google’s servers, which occurred in July and were reported in late August.

	Google headquarters in Mountain View, CA.
	Photo by: AP

The security certificates allow web browsers to communicate securely with web servers over the internet, according to Blogger Lior Kaplan. The SSL certificates are created by special companies that provide this service and are generally thought to be dependable and trustworthy.

“Forging certificates allows malicious people to play the ‘man-in-the-middle’ trick, impersonating the secure site with a fake certificate, and then passing the user’s information on to the actual site. It then passes the reply on to the user. In this way, the malicious person sits between the two parties and listens in on their conversation,” Kaplan wrote in his blog.

“Encryption is not synonymous with secure data,” said Raviv Raz, CEO of Hybrid Security, experts on preventing internet fraud. “You can encrypt all over the place, but it’s not worth a thing if you don’t know who you’re talking to on the other end of the line.”

Many people believe that those behind the thefts are Iranian hackers, perhaps even connected to the Iranian government. These suspicions arose after Google reported that the stolen certificates affiliated with it were used to attack web users in the general area of Iran.