Archive for September 2011

Erdogan says misquoted on warships

September 10, 2011

Erdogan says misquoted on warships – Israel News, Ynetnews.

 

Turkish PM’s office softens threat of military clash at sea, says country ‘won’t send vessel to Mediterranean Sea as long as Israel avoids intervening in freedom of movement in international waters’

Ronen Medzini

Published: 09.10.11, 14:32 / Israel News
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statement that Turkish warships would escort the next Gaza-bound aid flotillas spared a row in Israel and across the world. The remarks were perceived as particularly aggressive, creating a basis for further escalation in the deteriorating relations between Israeland Turkey. 

Now it seems the Turks are attempting to soften the statement, claiming that Erdogan’s words were translated in a way that distorts his original intention.

 

“Turkish warships, in the first place, are authorized to protect our ships that carry humanitarian aid to Gaza,” Erdogan was quoted as saying this week. “From now on, we will not let these ships to be attacked by Israel, as what happened with the Freedom Flotilla.

 

According to official sources in Turkey, reporters artificially combined two different remarks made by the Turkish prime minister, creating one sentence perceived as a threat of a military clash in high seas.

 
ארדואן. הדברים לא הובנו כהלכה (צילום: gettyimages )

Erdogan. Remarks taken out of context? (Photo: Getty Images)

 

The new version, sent to the media from Erdogan’s office, attempts to clarify the statement. 

“We stressed the principle that we will ensure the safe movement of Gaza’s aid vessel,” said a senior Turkish government source. “The eastern Mediterranean Sea is not Israel’s private playground. As long as it avoids intervening in the freedom of movement in the region, we won’t send any warships to escort the vessels.” 

The source dismissed the published quotes as a bad translation which failed to understand Erdogan’s intention. “It appeared as if we were offering to have warships escort every aid vessel. This is not true. Turkey will defend the rights of its citizens only when Israel chooses to intervene and prevent free movement in international waters.”

 

The diplomatic relations between Ankara and Jerusalem reached a new low last weekend, after Israel refused to apologize for the May 31, 2010 deadly IDF raid on a Gaza-Bound flotilla.

 

In response, Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador and senior diplomats and said it would increase its Navy’s activity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and suspended all military trade ties between the two countries.

Report: Egypt PM to resign over protests

September 10, 2011

Report: Egypt PM to resign over protests – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Government-owned newspaper says Essam Sharaf expected to step down along with cabinet ministers following failed handling of Cairo riots, which left three people killed and some 1,000 injured

Roee Nahmias

Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf is expected to resign Saturday along with his cabinet ministers over the failed handling of Friday’s protests in Cairo, sources close to the cabinet told government-owned newspaper al-Ahram.

According to the report, Sharaf discussed the issue with his ministers in an urgent cabinet meeting.

Meanwhile Saturday, Israel received surprising support from Bahrain’s foreign minister, Sheik Haled bin Ahmad bin Muhammad al-Halifa, who condemned the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo.The minister wrote on his Twitter page that “the failure to defend the embassy building is a blatant violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.”

Some 4,000 people demonstrated outside the Israeli Embassy in Cairo on Friday evening, tore down the wall set up to defend the diplomats, removed the Israeli flag from the building and clashed with security forces. Three protestors were killed and more than 1,000 were injured.Dozens of protestors stormed the embassy building, where six security guards and workers were stranded. The rioters threw Israeli documents out of the windows and reportedly beat up one of the employees.

Protestors storm Israeli Embassy building (Photo: EPA)

The six Israelis were evacuated from the embassy by an Egyptian commando force early Saturday, and returned to Israel. Ambassador Yitzhak Levanon, some 80 diplomats, their family members and other Israelis residing in Cairo were flown back to Israel earlier. The deputy ambassador remained in the Egyptian capital to maintain the embassy.Sharaf was appointed prime minister on March 3, after the revolution which led to President Hosni Mubarak’s downfall. Sharaf enjoyed the citizens’ support but his government began drawing criticism recently.According to recent reports, several years ago, when he served as minister, Sharaf gave his associates official roles.Friday’s protests were not just against Israel, but also against the Military Council controlling Egypt. Sharaf convened his cabinet for an urgent meeting Saturday morning. At the same time, the Interior Ministry said it put police on high alert and canceled all police holidays.

News analysis: Crises with Turkey and Egypt signal political tsunami for Israel

September 10, 2011

News analysis: Crises with Turkey and Egypt signal political tsunami for Israel – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

The political crisis has become a reality even before the UN unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state, leaving Israelisolated facing Iran, Turkey and Egypt, countries which in the past were considered close allies.

By Aluf Benn

The anxiety caused by the Arab Spring among the Israeli public became reality this weekend, when protesters broke into the Israeli Embassy in Cairo, and expelled the Israeli diplomats from their country. The embassy staff’s urgent evacuation in a special IAF plane, in the wake of President Obama’s intervention, serves as a stark reminder of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Seven months after the downfall of Hosni Mubarak’s regime, Egyptian protesters tore the Israeli flag, a symbol of peace between Egypt and its eastern neighbor, to shreds after 31 years. It seems that the flag will not return to the flagstaff anytime soon.

Those historians whom will write about the collapse of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty will start their stories during the twilight years of the Mubarak regime, when the government gradually lost control over the Sinai Peninsula, turning the desert into an abandoned frontier of weapon smuggling, trafficking of women, and African refugees. The demilitarization agreements, which removed the Egyptian army from the Sinai and were slowly eroded ever since Israel’s disengaged from the Gaza Strip, have accelerated sharply in the last several months. Time after time, Egypt requested and received permission to “temporarily” deploy more troops and weaponry along the border, in order to impose order and security in the region. For the Egyptians, this was an opportunity to shake off the limitations imposed on them by the peace agreement, and regain their full sovereignty over the buffer zone that lies between the Suez Canal and the Negev.

Netanyahu Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset on June 15, 2011.
Photo by: Emil Salman

In the 70s, when the peace accords were signed, the Egyptian military’s presence in Sinai posed the greatest security threat. Now, Egyptian soldiers seem like the lesser evil, like an antidote to the much larger threat of a political and security vacuum across the border. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned that the Sinai Peninsula will turn into a larger version of the Gaza Strip, full of weapons and launching pads aimed at Israeli territory. The fence that Israel is building along the Egyptian border is intended to ensure routine security measures in order to prevent terrorists and refugees from spilling over the border. Israel will not be able to grapple with the strategic dangers that unfold on the other side.

The “embassy crisis” exploded in the wake of the killing of five Egyptian soldiers on August 18 during a border skirmish that came on the heels of a terrorist attack against Israeli civilians on their way to Eilat. The Tahrir protesters, along with Egyptian politicians, frustrated with the slow pace of regime change, have directed their anger toward the most hated target in Cairo – the Israeli Embassy. Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s public expression of regret, and the Israeli promises to cooperate with Egypt in investigating the incident did not interest the Egyptian public. The protests continued, and a week after the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador from Ankara on similar grounds – anger stemming from the killing of Turkish citizens aboard last year’s Gaza flotilla – the Israeli ambassador was expelled from Cairo. The only difference is that in Turkey, the government initiated the downgrading of ties, while in Egypt the people did so against the will of their rulers.

Netanyahu and his government boast of their determined stance regarding national pride, and the prime minster is convinced that he was right in refusing to apologize to the Turks for killing their citizens. According to his worldview, the Arab world observes Israel’s actions, and an apology to Turkey would be interpreted as a sign of unforgivable weakness. But Netanyahu was not content with a mere refusal. Instead of attempting to calm the conflict with Turkey, Israel was dragged into a dangerous battle with Ankara.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to send a Turkish naval fleet to accompany the next flotillas to Gaza, and Netanyahu responded with a widely-covered visit to an Israeli naval base. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who consistently outflanks Netanyahu from the right, suggests, publicly, that Israel aid the PKK Kurdish insurgency, in order to balance out Turkey’s support for Hamas.

Netanyahu and Lieberman are heroes of the media, but when the chips are down, it turns out that Israel has direct influence on Egypt. Thus, Netanyahu must resort to asking for help from Obama, his great opponent, in order to evacuate the embassy employees. Once again, it becomes clear that Israel cannot manage without help from America.

Netanyahu now hopes that Israel might be able to get close with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States, who also seek to block the possibility of an Arab Spring in the region. In the West, Netanyahu seeks to circumvent Turkey by strengthening ties with Gree, Bulgaria and Romania. During his visit to the Balkans, he was shown photos and status of national heros, sent to their deaths by the Ottoman Empire. A real basis for friendship.

These are but minor comforts. The political tsunami that Ehud Barak foresaw has come true prior to the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state in the UN. Israel is left isolated facing Iran, Turkey and Egypt, which in the past were considered close allies. Netanyahu is convinced that the Arab Spring uprisings are a decree of fate, leaving Israel with little to do but to stand firmly in its place.

Israel cannot prevent the rise of Erdogan or the fall of Mubarak, the same way that it cannot halt Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The fall of the American superpower is not Netanyahu’s fault. But he has not done a thing in order to soften the fallout from the aforementioned developments. Israel’s political and strategic positions are far worse under his leadership.

Doomsday weapon: Israel’s submarines

September 10, 2011

Doomsday weapon: Israel’s submarines – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Ynetnews special: Rare glimpse into Israel’s doomsday weapon – the submarine fleet

Alex Fishman

Navy's Dolphin sub. One of first walls of defense (archives) Photo: Zvika Golan, IDF Spokesperson's Office

The day the Twin Towers collapsed in Manhattan, September 11, 2001, Israeli submarine “Leviathan” of the advanced Dolphin model was on a training sail somewhere at sea – the exact location of Israel’s submarines will always remain classified, even dozens of years after the fact. At one point, the submarine rose to the surface to take a break. The sub’s commander, then-Lt. Colonel Oded, looked through the periscope and saw a calm, blue sea. However, one crew member soon informed him that he just saw the New York towers collapsing on television. Oded’s first reaction was laughter: What kind of movie are you watching there? How could the Twin Towers collapse? Yet soon after, the official announcement arrived from Israel.

       The training session ended abruptly. Orders started to pour in from Navy headquarters. The submarine went into high alert and sunk into the water for a lengthy period of several weeks. “In such case,” Oded says, “nobody knows where you are except for your crew and your direct commanders. Even your family doesn’t know. They don’t know what you’re doing or when you’ll be back. They know nothing.”

 Oded says that doubling the fleet’s size is “not only a challenge for the army; it’s a challenge for the State.” When asked whether Israel needs such large fleet, especially in an era of cutbacks, Oded has no hesitation: “I have no doubt we need it. A large submarine fleet gives us much more than a multiplier effect in strategic and security terms.”

What does a terror attack at the World Trade Center have to do with an Israeli submarine going on high alert? This question shall remain unanswered as well. We can only guess: When the US experiences an unprecedented terror event whose implications are still unclear, nobody knows how the superpower would respond and what will happen in the Middle East as result. At such moments of uncertainty, Israel’s first walls of defense are its long-range strategic arms – the most secretive one is the submarine fleet.Israel’s enemies must be made to understand that should they dare use any weapon of mass destruction, their own fate will be sealed. According to foreign reports, Israel’s Dolphin fleet plays a crucial role in the game of deterrence with its second strike capability.

Virtual passport

Just like Israel’s submarine fleet is secretive, so are its commanders. Colonel Oded, 44, has recently completed his tenure as the fleet’s commander, ending a chapter of more than 20 years where he performed almost every command post in the fleet. “If a layman would see submarine troops from the side, he would not understand how we can withstand it,” Oded says in a rare interview. “It’s a group of people who perform missions at very certain locations and feel like home there. People wake up for their shifts, eat breakfast and follow a routine in the least trivial locations one can imagine.”

Dolphin fleet plays crucial role in game of deterrence (Photo: AFP)

When I ask Oded whether his troops’ passports would be filled with stamps, had they theoretically stamped them at border control, he smiles and says nothing. Indeed, we can imagine that these virtual passports would have been full of stamps. The Navy’s submarines, as opposed to other vessels, never dock at foreign ports, including friendly ones. This is the nature of the service: The submarines only dock in Israel.

Exceptional soldiers

In order to serve on a submarine, one needs more than to excel at school and accumulate more and more knowledge. Such soldiers need a specific mental makeup that enables them to be isolated for lengthy periods of time from their natural environment, while living with 40 other people under crowded conditions and an intensive, tense operational atmosphere.

“People who cannot withstand the pressure drop out in the screening process and during the courses,” Oded says. “There is only one way to minimize the fear and improve the ability to function during emergencies: Sisyphean training. For that reason we constantly engage in simulating extreme scenarios, so when things happen in real life the soldiers are trained and already experienced those things during training sessions.”“When you arrive at the sub after the course, you feel that nobody is better than you, but very quickly you realize that you have much to learn from the people around you,” Oded says. “The veteran non-commissioned officer is much more professional than you in his area of expertise. The secret of the submarine’s power is the accumulated knowledge of everyone on board. Each soldier is an expert, so you learn to appreciate and trust them…you learn very quickly that the quality of the soldiers is so high that you cannot just issue orders.”

Not like in the movies

So what happens to a young man who one day becomes privy to the State of Israel’s deepest secrets? “If we developed the right person, and his ego is at a healthy place, not much happens,” Oded says. “The heavy responsibility and significance of the work merely increase the need for modesty. Even though it’s quite surprising and fascinating to discover what this country can do, we don’t tell our parents or anyone else. Never. Everything stays within the submarine. This is one of the reasons why the friendships formed between the soldiers and officers don’t exist elsewhere. We develop a culture where secrecy means life or death.

In the movies we often see a submarine commander receiving a mysterious message, walking over to the safe, pulling out an envelope and discovering a dramatic mission for the first time. Yet when Oded is asked whether this happens in real life, he bursts into laughter. “This happens in the movies. These are precisely the things that are not done in real life, because the sub commander works completely independently, and at times has no contact whatsoever with his superiors. Hence, he must have all the information available to him and be familiar with the mission’s big picture, so he can make the right decisions.

Having fun in the shower

At the end of the 1980s, Oded completed a degree in electrical engineering and physics at the Technion. Upon graduation, he was appointed as commander of a missile boat that specializes in anti-submarine warfare (the Navy ensures that future sub commanders serve on such boats first, as there is no better way to learn how they behave when confronting a submarine.) After two years, Oded embarked on a submarine commander’s course – an intensive eight-month track with a personal mentor. In 1999 he was assigned to command the old-model submarine “Gal.” The only thing he is willing to say about that period is: “It was a very operational year, with plenty of counter-terror activity.” In 2001, he was appointed as the second commander of “Leviathan,” a new model Dolphin sub.

When asked how it feels to command “Leviathan,” a submarine that is three-times larger than the previous sub he led, Oded first speaks about the improved shower experience. “When you are sailing for weeks and your only way to take a shower is to use the air-conditioner’s water, yet suddenly you have a shower, only then you understand the meaning of this,” he says.“Suddenly there is a convenient space for service, in submarine terms of course. Suddenly your sub has more than one floor. There are also more arms and more advanced sonar systems. There is also a leap in atomization and in command and control capabilities. It’s like flying into space. Moreover, it’s a very quiet submarine that can perform its mission with greater secrecy.

Doubling the fleet

At this time the Navy is preparing to double Israel’s submarine fleet from three to six in the next five years, making it one of the region’s largest and most advanced fleets. As result of this process, Oded was not only required to double the submarine fleet’s manpower, but also to create a larger cadre career officers for a lengthy service term, as the need for professional expertise will only be growing. Hence, the Navy realized it must offer these soldiers the army’s best service terms. For example, sub troops can study almost anything they want, as long as they stay in the force. Notably, a sub officer is required to serve nine years at least.

Oded says that doubling the fleet’s size is “not only a challenge for the army; it’s a challenge for the State.” When asked whether Israel needs such large fleet, especially in an era of cutbacks, Oded has no hesitation: “I have no doubt we need it. A large submarine fleet gives us much more than a multiplier effect in strategic and security terms.”

 

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security

September 10, 2011

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report September 10, 2011, 4:51 AM (GMT+02:00)

Mob burns Israeli embassy in Cairo

The Egyptian government declared a state of emergency early Saturday, Sept. 10 as thousands of demonstrators using sledgehammers smashed through the wall outside the Israeli embassy, broke into the building and dumped the flag and hundreds of documents through the windows. debkafile: Egyptian security forces using tear gas and shooting the in air failed to contain the howling mob led by Muslim Brotherhood adherents.
At least 5 Egyptian soldiers killed and more than 500 police and demonstrators were injured. Ambassador Yizhak Levanon, his family and 70 embassy personnel were evacuated from Egypt by military plane.

The Egyptian government after declaring an emergency sent armored vehicles to the burning building and cut off the power in the street. The demonstrators set up barricades in the streets around the embassy building and attacked police vehicles and other vehicles with Molotov cocktails. They moved on then to attack a police station.
Ambassador Yitzhak Levanon, his family and staff were taken from their homes in Cairo to await the military plane which evacuated them. US President Barack Obama expressed concern at the attack and told Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu he was taking steps to help resolve the situation without further violence.
He called on the Egyptian government to honor its international obligations to safeguard the embassy. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak asked US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta for assistance in safeguarding the building.

The attack came two days before a scheduled visit by the Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan to Cairo amid an escalating Turkish diplomatic offensive against Israel which the US is seeking to contain.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood whipped up the Israeli embassy attack to show the military rulers in Cairo who calls the shots and pressure them into breaking off three decades of peace ties with the Jewish state.
The Turkish leader set the scene for the rampage in Cairo by his spiraling anti-Israel hate campaign which is winning him popularity on the Arab Muslim street.
Not only have Egyptian-Israeli ties entered a crisis phase, so have US relations with the Arab world.

Erdogan’s campaign has derailed America’s Middle East policy by placing its key allies Turkey and Israel on a course of military collision.  He is putting Washington on notice that Turkey’s friendship and support in the region is contingent on the US turning against Israel.

Israel is taken back 32 years to the seventies when it stood out as the only pro-Western outpost of democracy in the Middle East beset by Arab enemies. The burning of the Israeli embassy in Cairo means that Ambassador Levanon will not return to his post in a hurry, the temperature of relations with Egypt will drop from cold to frigid and Israel can forget about the resupply of natural gas.
Already, the military junta instead of battling the terrorists at large in Sinai, including al Qaeda, has forged deals with them and left them in control of the inflammable Israeli border area.

The Egyptian rulers’ policy of appeasement for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic extremists has backfired against them too. The spreading extremist violence climaxing in the attack on the Israeli embassy augurs the further breakdown of their authority. As well as an outrage against Israel and setback for US influence, it confronts the generals with their moment of truth: Their failure to deal with the rioters, who quickly vented their fury on police vehicles and buildings, will pave the way for Muslim extremist control of Egypt. Israel stands in grave peril of the region’s two top Muslim powers lining up at the head of its enemies.

First US-Turkish-Iranian-Iraqi KRG Armed Alliance

September 9, 2011

DEBKA.

Their Joint Offensive against Kurdish Rebels Saves Assad – For Now

In one of the world’s most forgotten wars, an improbable coalition of allies has come together to defeat the two groups leading the long Kurdish war for national recognition: The Turkish PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) and the PJAK (the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), mostly Kurdish rebels of Iranian descent living in northern Iraq.
The US, Turkey, Iran and the Kurdish Regional Government-KRG have combined their military and intelligence operations in a concerted drive to demolish the two Kurdish movements.
The Americans are actually transferring intelligence gathered by drones and observations points along the Iraqi-Iranian border to Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) forces fighting the PJAK rebels. Some Iranian raids take them across the border into Iraq. The information is relayed through the Kurdish Regional government (KRG) of northern Iraq.
It is the first instance of such cooperation since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Furthermore, Turkish special units crossing into northern Iraqi Kurdistan to fight PKK rebels are fed intelligence from both American forces and Iran. This input is also channeled through the KRG, a willing military and intelligence coordinating hub for the US, Turkish and Iranian military drives to defeat fellow Kurds who have been using KRG territory for their revolts against Turkey and Iran.
The four main battle arenas in northern Iraq are located at Sinath-Haftanin, the Qandil Mountain region, Hakurk and Gara.
The KRG accepts role of coordination hub
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report that last week, Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani visited Tehran at the head of a large KRG military delegation which also numbered Kurdish Interior Minister Karim Sinjari, who is in charge of internal security and intelligence.
The delegation met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and senior Revolutionary Guards commanders for aligning joint Kurdish-Iranian military steps against the PJAK rebels.
From Tehran, the Kurdish delegation headed to Ankara for talks with Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. There too they met Turkish military chiefs for more coordination in the wake of the large-scale air and ground offensive Ankara mounted against the PKK on August 17 in reprisal for Kurdish attacks at Hakkari in southeastern Turkey and dozens of Turkish military deaths.
The full scale of the Turkish operation may be appreciated from the figures released by the Turkish general staff: 457 targets were attacked: 349 hit by ground forces and another 108 destroyed by air strikes.
It is obvious that Turkey’s massive ground assaults in northern Iraq are carried out with the full knowledge of the Americans and the autonomous Kurdish government of northern Iraq.
Upon the KGR delegation’s return home to Irbil, their capital, orders went out to block the roads to Qandil, one of the battle arenas, and the supply and escape routes of the two rebel movements, the PKK and PJAK.
The accords negotiated by the KGR delegation in Tehran and Ankara permitted Iranian troops to advance five to seven kilometers into northern Iraq and destroy PKK and PJAK camps; Turkish forces were allowed deeper penetration of the triangle formed by the Turkish, Iranian and Iraqi borders, particularly in the Qandil Mountains, where the Iranians too began operating for the first time.
The two Kurdish rebel movements face only two stark choices: destruction or surrender.
A recent PJAK declaration of a unilateral ceasefire to halt the Iranian offensive was rejected by Tehran, which announced that nothing less than surrender would halt the IRGC offensive.
KRG’s Barzani draws line on annihilation of rebel movements
To keep the wheels of the four-way collaboration spinning, KRG President Masoud Barzani will soon visit Tehran.
At the same time, Barzani draws the line on letting Iran and Turkey go all the way and annihilate the two Kurdish rebel movements. The Qadil Mountain peaks are accessible to no one but the KRG army, the Pershmerga. It is the two rebel movements’ last fortress and Barzani will make sure that neither outside armies will reach it.
The Obama administration is very much in favor of Barzani’s visit to Tehran and urging him to go as soon as possible. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources in Washington say the US is convinced that its standing in Kurdistan will profit from Kurdish-Iranian military ties by opening up three new options:
1. American soldiers remaining in Iraq after the drawdown at the end of the year, many in Kurdistan bases, will be safer after the PKK and PJAK rebels are gone. The elimination of the twin Kurdish rebel presence in this territory is rated supremely important in Washington.
2. Intelligence-sharing between Washington, Ankara, Tehran and Irbil against the Kurdish rebels has opened up for the Obama administration a new channel of communication and dialogue with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after a ten-month disconnect.
Communications via Turkey broke down when Ankara and Tehran started bickering. Turkey’s threat to invade northern Syria unless President Bashar Assad abandoned his military crackdown on protest elicited an Iranian warning of missile reprisals against Turkish military installations.
US hopes for Turkish-Iranian cooperation in reining Assad in
3. Turkish-Iranian military and intelligence cooperation against Kurdish rebels could, Obama administration strategists believe, bring them together for a joint bid to persuade Assad to turn away from brutal force and begin implementing long-promised political reforms.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Iranian sources report that Iran’s leaders have begun to appreciate that the Syrian ruler’s savage abuses against dissidents are counter-productive and should be stopped.
Indications of this changed approach appearing of late in Iranian state-controlled media were misinterpreted by some Western pundits as a weakening of Tehran’s commitment to its bonds with the Assad regime. This, say our sources, is way off the mark. The Iranians are merely advising the Syrian ruler to change his methods in favor of more prudent and appropriate tactics.
The study of these shifting nuances and aiding the Turkish-Iranian offensive against Kurdish rebels, have distracted Washington from its focus on Turkish military intervention against the Syrian regime. They have contented themselves with diplomatic pressure and sanctions against Assad.
Having gained a partial reprieve, the Syrian ruler has turned to settling scores with Turkey and reproving its ally, Iran.
In other parts of the Middle East, US intervention in anti-Kurd operations while making common cause with Iran have raised the level of distrust for the Obama administration and its regional policies.

War Fever Mounts as Erdogan Pushes into E. Mediterranean

September 9, 2011

DEBKA.

Turkish Warships Sent to Challenge Israel
Tayyip Erdogan

It is not discussed openly in Washington, Jerusalem or Ankara, but privately, high military and intelligence officials in all three capitals are looking at the possibility of air and naval clashes erupting between Turkey and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean at some future point and their wider impact on the region.
Their attention was first drawn, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources report, by the secret transfer of Turkish naval, air and marine units to North Cyprus (the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus – TRNC) Sunday, Sept. 4.
Their concern was fueled further by the sudden and steep decline in Turkey-Israel relations in the past week, persuading US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to shelve her other business and put her back into averting a clash of arms.
And the tension boiled over into the explicit threat of a collision at sea Thursday, Sept. 8, when Erdogan confronted Israel with what was perilously close to a casus belli by announcing an order to Turkish warships to escort Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
In a broadcast to Al Jazeera television, he also said Turkey had “taken steps to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern Mediterranean.”
This was a direct challenge to Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip after it was ruled legitimate by the UN and the gas wells it is exploring offshore.
The evil hour of armed conflict may be postponed for weeks if not months. But the animus between the two countries has taken a dangerous turn.
Friday, September 2, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan summarily rejected the UN panel’s report which justified the Israeli commando interception of a Turkish vessel bound for breaking Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip in May 2010. In the clash on its decks, nine mostly Turkish armed activists were killed.
Erdogan chooses E. Mediterranean as confrontation arena with Israel
In a hot outburst against the panel’s findings, Erdogan immediately downgraded Israel’s diplomatic mission in Turkey from embassy to consular level and froze all military ties and contracts. He issued a warning that the Turkish Navy would start paying more frequent visits to the eastern Mediterranean – the stretch of water between Cyprus and Israel.
Five days went by and Tuesday, September 6, the irate Turkish prime minister slapped down more anti-Israel sanctions, explaining the steps taken so far were part of Plan B, while Plan C, he said, was ready to go depending on developments. He then said, “…We are totally suspending our commercial, military and defense ties. They are being frozen entirely.”
Regarding Turkish steps in the eastern Mediterranean, Erdogan said: “The eastern Mediterranean is no stranger to us. Our ships will be seen more frequently in those waters.”
Thursday, Sept. 8, Erdogan’s meaning became clear when he instructed Turkish warships to not only frequent the eastern Mediterranean, but actually guard vessels breaching the Israeli blockade against interception, as well as preventing Israeli offshore gas exploration.
While ratcheting up the war fever day by day, Erdogan also works hard to drive a wedge between Washington and Jerusalem.
“Israel has always acted like a spoiled child in the face of all UN decisions that concern it. It assumes that it can continue to act like a spoiled child and will get away with it,” Erdogan told reporters.
This remark was interpreted in Washington and Jerusalem as pressure on President Barack Obama to withdraw America’s diplomatic and military support from Israel and once and for all decide where the US stands in the Muslim, Arab conflict with Israel.
Erdogan’s bid to make trouble between the US and Israel
Two hardline signals were seen as the subtext of the Turkish leader peroration:
1. Flat rejection of Secretary Clinton’s appeal to Erdogan and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to cool their hostile steps and fiery rhetoric against Israel.
2. A warning to the Obama administration that if its plan for establishing a US-led alliance linking Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States were to prosper, Washington could not avoid treating Israel like a spoilt child.
As relations between Ankara and Jerusalem continued to spin out of control, Israel leaders showed disquiet.
Monday, Sept. 5, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Commander Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg made the following comments to a forum of senior security officials in Tel Aviv:
The Arab revolts and Israel’s rift with Turkey are capable of sparking all-out war in the Middle East. “In the long term (he emphasized the long-term aspect here), the probability of such a war will increase.”
Eisenberg foresaw the Arab Spring evolving into “a radical Islamic winter that would raise the likelihood of total war with the potential for the use of WMD.”
The general spoke shortly after attending an IDF General Staff meeting headed by the Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz which ranged over Israel’s strategic position in the light of the uprisings besetting its Arab neighbors.
Israeli general and ex-diplomat agree on imminence of threat
Eisenberg was called to order at home because it is not the function of Israeli generals in his position to issue public national security forecasts.
However, the home front chief clearly spoke candidly under the impression of what he heard at the general staff meeting, especially in the context of the crisis with Turkey.
Alon Liel, former Foreign Ministry director-general and Israeli ambassador to Turkey, followed with a similar succinct warning Wednesday, Sept. 7:
“I think that Turkey and Israel may fight – not over Gaza or Lebanon, but over Cyprus. Arguments over the rights of gas and oil reserves, shipping, the demarcation of territorial waters, may cause conflict,” said the ex-diplomat.
“Both navies know each other. This may help to overcome crisis, but it is possible for the two countries to enter into an armed conflict.”
The general and the former diplomat are therefore of one mind over the dispute, which began in a clash over a Turkish-led flotilla’s attempt to break Israel’s naval blockade on Gaza in May 2010, and more than a year later has acquired the potential for an armed Israeli-Turkish conflict capable of seeping out across the Middle East and gathering in Greece and Cyprus.
Ankara also challenges Athens and Nicosia over gas and oil
Turkish clouds were already gathering over Cyprus following a harsh warning from Ankara to halt the Nicosia government’s planned gas and oil exploration of waters opposite its southern shore.
In late 2010, Cyprus and Israel signed zoning agreements demarking areas of maritime exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus starts deep-water drilling in just four weeks.
Greece has endorsed these agreements, but Turkey, Iran, Lebanon and Egypt have called them illegal.
Ankara is clearly eying both Cypriot and Israeli offshore gas reserves.
On Sept. 6 Turkey’s European Union Affairs Minister Egemen Bagis threatened to send Turkish naval vessels to the drilling area if Cyprus proceeds with its exploration for hydrocarbons.
“It is for this reason that we built our army and trained our soldiers,” said Bagis, accusing Cyprus of illegally exploring “waters that do not belong to them.”
Turkey will make use of all its rights under international law and act accordingly, said the angry Turkish minister: “They know Turkey is serious and that all options are on the table.”
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources report that Jerusalem and other Middle East and Gulf capitals are convinced that the Erdogan government is willing to go to great lengths to provoke a crisis between Washington and Jerusalem, even if this means whipping up an armed clash between the Turkish, Israeli and Greek armies.
Ankara is also strongly motivated by covetousness for control of the oil and gas resources opposite the shores of Israel and Cyprus.
Washington turns heat on Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his government have always kept a wary eye on President Obama and his Middle East and Palestinian intentions. Their mistrust was not allayed by the leak to the US media on Tuesday, Sept. 6, of remarks Robert Gates made before his retirement as Defense Secretary to the National Security Council Principals Committee.
The former secretary coldly laid out the many steps Washington had taken to guarantee Israel’s security – access to top-quality weapons, assistance in developing missile-defense systems, high-level intelligence-sharing. He then declared bluntly that the US has received nothing in return, particularly with regard to the peace process.
Netanyahu, Gates argued, is not only ungrateful, but also endangering his country by refusing to grapple with Israel’s growing isolation and the demographic challenges it faces if it keeps control of the West Bank.
The leaked report claimed Gates met no opposition to his remarks from other members of the committee.
Our sources say administration officials leaked these comments months after they were made to accompany two senior White House officials who were on their way to Jerusalem in an attempt to twist the Israeli prime minister’s arm into being more accommodating on the Palestinian issue.
Obama’s Middle East adviser Dennis Ross and Israel-Palestinian peace negotiator David Hale were sent out for a last-ditch bid to draw from Israel enough concessions to change Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas‘s mind about submitting a unilateral application for UN recognition of Palestinian statehood on September 20.
Cairo and Riyadh look askance at Erdogan’s machinations
The Gates leak, unbeknownst to Washington, coincided with the Turkish prime minister’s condemnation of Israel as a “spoilt child” and had the same results.
Concern in Jerusalem over the purpose of Ankara’s provocations grew more acute as the week advanced.
Cairo and Riyadh are also profoundly distrustful of Erdogan and his intentions.
The Turkish prime minister has invited himself for a visit to Cairo Monday, Dec. 12. He says he is eager to develop economic and strategic ties with the generals ruling Egypt since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, who spurned his overtures. Turkish sources constantly harp on the importance of this visit and the accords their prime minister has drafted for cementing an alliance with Egypt’s new rulers.
Their eagerness is not reciprocated, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources report. The military junta’s attitude towards Erdogan differs very little from that of the ousted president. The Egyptian side may therefore go through the motions of signing high-sounding economic and other accords but will stop short of meeting Turkey’s expectation for agreements with strategic content.
In Riyadh, Saudi King Abdullah and his strategic advisers look askance at Erdogan’s machinations. They take exception to the Islamic rulers installed in Arab capitals for a new Middle East alignment which President Obama and the Turkish prime minister are plugging hard.
(See separate article in this issue: US Reinvents ex-Al Qaeda as “pro-Democracy Converts” Fit to Rule).
The Saudis have nothing but resentment for Erdogan’s policy initiatives for Syria, Egypt and Iraq, regarding them as blatant attempts to disrupt the front they are building for challenging Iran.

Assad declares war, mobilizes Syrian forces

September 9, 2011

Assad declares war, mobilizes Syrian forces – JPost – Headlines.

Syria declared a state of war and mobilized troops to neutralize “terrorists who threaten us,” Al-Quds newspaper reported Thursday evening.

Operation “Bayrak al-Assad” was implemented secretly, mobilizing full military forces in Syria for concentrated offensives on cities across the country, according to the report.

The military operation is a continuation of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s violent crackdown against pro-democracy activists which began in March.

The difference however, according to the Al-Quds report, is that with this declaration, Assad has declared that the state is no longer simply crushing terrorist elements during peacetime, but rather at war.

Erdogan drives toward armed clash with Israel. Oil and gas at stake

September 9, 2011

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 9, 2011, 12:04 AM (GMT+02:00)

Tayyip Erdogan wants war with Israel

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan this week coolly moved his country step by provocative step towards an armed clash with Israel – not just over the Palestinian issue, but because he covets the gas and oil resources of the eastern Mediterranean opposite Israel’s shores.
Thursday night, Sept. 8, he announced that Turkish warships will escort any Turkish aid vessels for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. In his remarks to Al Jazeera television, the Turkish prime minister also said he had taken steps “to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern Mediterranean.”

He did not say what steps he had taken. However, for some time now, he has moved mountains to isolate Israel by drawing a double diplomatic noose around it.
If Turkish ships breach the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza, which a UN report last week pronounced legitimate under international law, Erdogan will become the first Muslim leader to embark on military action in the Palestinian cause. The Arab nations which fought Israel time after time in the past will be made to look ineffectual and the Turkish leader the regional big shot. Even Iran would be put in the shade for never daring to provoke Israel the way Turkey has.
The Turkish prime minister clings to the belief that the foremost Arab powers, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which have been watching his maneuvers with deep suspicion, will have no choice but to play ball with him now that he has confronted Israel. The first crack in the Arab ice came about Thursday, Sept. 8, in the form of Egyptian consent to join the Turkish Navy in sea maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean.
Erdogan plans to send his warships into this water for two missions:

1. To split the Israel’s small Navy into two heads – one for sustaining the blockade against Gaza and one for safeguarding the gas and oil rigs opposite its shores.
2.  To scare Israel into the full or partial stoppage of its offshore oil and gas operations, thereby robbing it of energy power status and substantial economic gains. Erdogan is determined never to let Israel overshadow Turkey in the regional stakes and will put a stop to the Jewish state’s progress – even if military aggression is called for.
debkafile‘s military sources report that the Turkish prime minister is resolved to corner Israel into an inescapable military confrontation. It might not happen at once or even within a week, but it will happen a lot sooner than many Israeli politicians and military chiefs imagine because he is using Israel as his ticket to regional prestige.
Erdogan is driven to assert Turkey’s importance additionally by the way he was shouldered aside in Libya. Ankara invested heavily in its support for the Libyan rebels. But when British, French, Jordanian and Qatari special forces stormed Tripoli on Aug. 21 and overthrew the Qaddafi regime, Turkey was left behind and forgotten in the heat of the action.

From Ankara, the Turkish leader watches the sharing out of Libyan oil as the spoils of war among the Western powers and Qatar as an outsider.
Since he can’t pluck up courage to intervene in Syria, he has plumped for seizing eastern Mediterranean natural resources to elevate Turkey’s standing. Not only will he snatch the treasure out of Israel’s hands but no less important, he will challenge his country’s traditional rival Greece whose military ties with Israel are growing stronger.

As for Washington, Erdogan is counting on President Barack Obama’s backing in a military clash with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are less confident of US support. This gives Turkey an edge in a conflict – the cost of the passive military policy pursued consistently by Israeli leaders in the face of security threats.
The Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will also suffer if Turkey and Israel come to blows by being overshadowed.

Turkish PM: Warships will escort future aid vessels to Gaza

September 8, 2011

Turkish PM: Warships will escort … JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister

    Turkish warships will escort any Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said in remarks broadcast on Al Jazeera television on Thursday.

Erdogan also said that Turkey had taken steps to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern Mediterranean, according to Al Jazeera’s Arabic translation of excerpts of the interview, which was conducted in Turkish.

The comments from Erdogan came as Turkey has downgraded diplomatic ties with Israel and heated up rhetoric against the Jewish State in the aftermath of the publication of the UN Palmer Commission report on the Mavi Maramara raid and Israel’s refusal to answer Turkish demands to apologize for the incident.

Erdogan, when asked Wednesday by reporters about the economic cost to Turkey of the sanctions the country has taken against Israel, said, “The cost could be $15 or $150 million. We, as Turkey, would not be bothered by this. What is important for us is that we don’t let anyone trample on our pride.”

Erdogan, who has rattled the saber by promising to step up naval patrols in the eastern Mediterranean to ensure freedom of maritime traffic, and who has frozen all defense contracts with Israel, also used the opportunity to preach to Israel about business ethics.

He accused Israel of not providing maintenance for Heron unmanned aerial vehicles that Israel Aerospace Industries supplied to Turkey last year. In 2005, IAI and Elbit Systems won a $183m. contract to supply 10 Heron UAVs and associated systems to the Turkish Air Force. Deliveries were completed last year.

“Israel is not being loyal to bilateral agreements in the defense industry,” Turkish Today’s Zaman’s website quoted Erdogan as saying. “There could be difficulties, problems with another country, such things may happen, but there is an international code of ethics that needs to be upheld in business agreements.”

Turkey and Egypt will hold a joint naval exercise at the end of the year, according to an unconfirmed report in Egyptian news Web site ‘Masrawy’ Thursday. An unnamed Egyptian official told the web site the drill would help in the exchange of knowledge and combat techniques between the countries.

Erdogan will make an official visit to Cairo next week and meet with high-ranking Egyptian officials in a bid to strengthen strategic and business relations between the two countries.