WarSclerotic

Diplomatic maelstrom – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Israel is facing its most complex strategic challenges in decades. The return of Israeli envoys from the region’s three most important countries is only the beginning.

By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel

The cabinet ministers’ diagnosis last week that Israel is facing its most complex strategic situation in decades is turning out to be correct. Even before the focus shifts to the Palestinian arena, with the bid by the Palestinian Authority to have the United Nations recognize it as a state, Israel has had to deal with the return home of senior envoys from three of the region’s most important countries. So far this month, Ankara expelled Israel’s ambassador to Turkey, Israel’s ambassador to Egypt was forced to flee Cairo in the middle of the night amid a mob attack, and yesterday all Israeli diplomats were evacuated from Amman due to warnings that Jordanians intended to copy the Egyptian demonstrations. In all three cases, it seems very unlikely that the ambassadors will return in the near future.

The claim by Benjamin Netanyahu’s political rivals that this is all the prime minister’s fault is baseless. And yet, Netanyahu should have considered compromising with Turkey over an apology for killing its citizens on the Mavi Marmara. The U.S. administration’s proposal was reasonable and did not undermine Israel’s dignity. More important, apparently, is Netanyahu’s behavior toward U.S. President Barack Obama. The White House has not yet forgotten the lesson in history that Netanyahu gave Obama in front of the cameras during his last visit in May.

	Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan in Egypt this week. No strategic anti-Israel alliance was formed between Ankara and Cairo.
	Photo by: AP

Israel’s dependence on the United States, in spite of the latter’s regional weakness, is evident daily, whether in the form of America’s huge defense assistance or the president’s intervention during the incident in Cairo last week, which was the only thing that kept the embassy security guards from being massacred. As far as the Palestinian problem is concerned, it’s true that it was Obama who drove Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to proceed with the superfluous UN declaration. But Netanyahu’s firm refusal to provide some diplomatic hope that would create a path out of the mess contributed to the crisis.

This past Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to Cairo to speak to the Egyptian people directly, sidelining temporary ruler Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. As opposed to what the Israeli press reported, no new strategic anti-Israel alliance was formed. The political situation in Egypt is too fluid: The parliamentary elections are supposed to take place two months from now, but they are likely to be postponed. The Egyptian economy is facing growing problems and the immediate interest of the supreme military council would seem to be to calm things down on the Israeli front. None of this prevented Erdogan from delivering a harsh anti-Israeli speech, borne on waves of affection from the Egyptian public.

In the background, the Turkish press continued to publish the government’s threats against Israel: Turkish combat planes will now identify Israeli planes as enemy planes, Turkish warships will escort flotillas to Gaza, and more. Of all the possible threats, the one that particularly disturbs the General Staff is a provocation by a Turkish ship against Israeli vessels, which could end in a violent confrontation.

The report by daily Yedioth Ahronoth that Foreign Minister Avidgor Lieberman recommends fostering closer ties with the Kurdish underground, the PKK, as retaliation for Erdogan’s incitement, was not favorably received in Turkey. Yet the fact that the international community is completely ignoring Turkey’s crimes against the Kurds is also worrisome.

In April, in a step described as historic, Turkey allowed independent Kurds to run in the parliamentary elections. But less than two years ago the pro-Kurdish party in the parliament was declared illegal. At the same time, the Turkish army, under Erdogan’s close supervision, is carrying out a campaign to kill Kurds outside Turkey. Last month the Turkish army killed about 160 Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. In May 2010, the army killed 150 rebels in the same region, and three months later the weekly German magazine Der Spiegel reported that chemical weapons were used against the Kurds in September 2009. Middle East expert Dr. Ely Karmon said this week that emphasizing the accusations against Israel was intended to distract attention from the Turkish repression of the Kurds, among other things.

Palestinian tent protests?

The West Bank’s economy expanded by 8 percent in the first half of 2010, but only 4 percent in the first half of this year, according to the World Bank report published this week. The report was published ahead of the Palestinian Donors’ Conference, which will take place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. While this growth rate is still far higher than in many other countries, it is significantly less than what the Palestinians have become accustomed to. In addition, the growth has barely managed to bring the West Bank back to its pre-intifada state.

The 2011 Palestinian budget was drafted based on a forecast of $967 million in donations. Yet by the end of June, only $293 million had been received. The construction sector is clearly slowing, while Palestinian exports to Israel did not increase at all compared to 2010.

Most experts and commentators have been assuming that the potential economic price would deter the Palestinian public from launching a new intifada, but it seems like the economic situation is less positive than they had thought. This is especially relevant for the average Palestinian, who did not benefit much even during the relatively good years; the fruits were concentrated among businessmen and well-connected PA employees. That is a problem for the PA, too, which is not certain it will be able to channel public fury exclusively at Israel without taking some of the heat itself.

On the Israeli side, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh finished reviewing various Israel Defense Forces units this week, and declared that the army is ready for possible mass unrest in the West Bank. Hundreds of millions of shekels have been invested in preparing for such action, code-named Operation Summer Seeds. This includes arms acquisitions, training and infrastructure work.

Last month the Central Command held a comprehensive exercise examining potential scenarios. In recent weeks most of the command’s regular units have been concentrated on the West Bank. Some are still in training, as part of the preparation for September. Today additional units will enter the West Bank, boosting the forces maintaining day-to-day security by about 20 percent. This is still an initial, limited stage of activity. If violent incidents break out, the IDF is prepared to double the number of soldiers deployed in the West Bank, which will require calling up reserves – at first only isolated brigades prepared for the task.

The Central Command has already listed problematic friction points, starting with the Qalandiyah checkpoint at the northern entrance to Jerusalem, the city of Hebron, the settlements around Nablus and areas where settlements are very near Palestinian cities. In addition, several regional defense groups, staffed by reservists who live in the settlements, will be recruited in areas considered problematic, such as the settlement of Psagot, which is adjacent to El Bireh and Ramallah.

This is where the second intifada began, exactly 11 years ago. This time, unlike in September 2000, the commanders are teaching the soldiers that even when blocking a mass march on a checkpoint, they need to minimize Palestinian casualties.

Security coordination with the PA has thus far been going smoothly, and the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas in May has had no negative repercussions for Israel. The IDF preparations are focused on the West Bank. In the south, the command is still busy preventing attacks from Sinai. Currently it has no reliable information stating that Hamas intends to lead parallel demonstrations on the Gaza border. Although Israel did not handle well the attacks on the borders with Lebanon and Syria on Nakba Day in May and Naksa day in June – the large number of dead among the demonstrators seems to have dampened the organizers’ desire for a repeat performance for now.

Anti-Iran messianics

Mass behavior is almost impossible to forecast. And under such sensitive circumstances, even a move or a mistake by a single person – a checkpoint commander who opens fire under pressure, an attack by a Hamas member, an extremist settler who tries to torch a mosque – could fuel the conflagration. That is the main reason why no one is willing to risk predicting what will happen in the coming weeks.

Netanyahu mentioned the Iranian threat again this week, in an address in honor of the 10th anniversary of September 11, while Dick Cheney, George W. Bush’s vice president during that critical period, said he believed Israel would act alone against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Enrichment activity at the facility built deep inside the mountain near Qom has intensified in recent weeks, and the centrifugal quality has been upgraded, according to International Atomic Energy Agency reports and official Iranian declarations. A senior Israeli official told an American Jewish delegation that conducting all their enrichment procedures in Qom will give the Iranians almost total immunity from an aerial attack.

Anyone who has spoken with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak in small forums in recent months was astonished to hear a firm, determined, almost messianic tone regarding the nuclear threat and how it should be handled. An Israeli attack against Iran, despite the Obama administration’s opposition, is liable to prove foolish. Not only is it not certain that it will postpone Iran’s nuclear program, but such an attack will almost certainly lead to a regional war that will cause serious damage to the Israeli home front.

DEBKA.

Bashar Assad

The wholesale slaughter of civilians has become a commonplace for the Syrian protesters who nonetheless refuse to give up after seven months of carnage.
One day, 32 anti-regime demonstrators are drily reported killed; 25, the next – as the killing, abuse and torture go on with only the feeblest protests from the West.
There are three more troubling aspects of Bashar Assad‘s barbaric crackdown on dissidents:
1. On September 8, he gathered all the military strength at his disposal for a final operation to crush the protest movement. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources report this is not one of the local massacres that are routine in one city after another, but an all-out effort to systematically cleanse Syria of every opposition element. Assad has mobilized his entire 300,000-strong army plus 75,000 reservists for this awesomely shocking operation dubbed “Biraq Assad” – Assad’s Flag. Its purpose: to return the Assad flag to every city, town and village.
Ordered to focus on army deserters, our sources report that Syrian forces have begun going house to house holding lists. Instead of making arrests, they burst into homes and rake all their occupants with automatic fire – men, women, children and elderly alike.
Since this new tactic was introduced, the size of anti-Assad demonstrations has declined by about two-thirds.
Russians, Chinese and Iran bolster Assad
2. In the month since US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on world countries to boycott Syrian oil and gas and halt weapons supplies to Syria, Russia, China and Iran have stepped up their arms consignments to the regime in Damascus. Moscow has also set up a military-diplomatic headquarters at the Russian embassy headed by President Dmitry Medvedev’s personal envoy, Mikhail Margelov.
The Russian experts are advising Assad on the weapons most effective for suppressing the revolt against him and how to dodge Western and NATO sanctions.
The Chinese have sent a special delegation to Damascus which coordinates its steps with the Russians.
Moscow has a big bone to pick with the West, DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s Russian sources report. Its offer to mediate solutions for the crises in Libya and Damascus did not entail overthrowing Muammar Qaddafi. The Russians claim that NATO’s capture of Tripoli and its handover to the Libyan rebels were not part of the deal, especially when the city was placed under the command of a former Al Qaeda operative.
Syria under the Assad dynasty is the second biggest market for Russian arms after Libya. After losing Qaddafi, Moscow is making sure Assad does not go the same way.
Major setback for US-Turkish goal to put moderate Muslims in power
3. The voices of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, not too long ago the most strident in threatening military action to cut Assad down, have fallen abruptly silent.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources confirm that President Barack Obama and Erdogan, who coordinated their Syrian policy until recently, never said Assad must go. They hoped to see him stay in office while pursuing political reforms for bringing the Muslim Brotherhood into government – in line with the Obama administration’s overall aspiration for the Arab revolts, including the uprisings in Egypt and Libya, to end with moderate Muslims in power.
This objective fits the Turkish prime minister’s agenda – as he formulated it for the benefit of Egyptian leaders in Cairo this week: Secular states governed by moderate Muslim rulers modern enough to cooperate with the West.
The Obama-Erdogan blueprint for the post-revolt Arab world has run into three major obstacles:
– Bashar Assad and the family around him resolved to follow in the footsteps of his father President Hafez Assad who in 1982 bombed the Muslim Brotherhood revolt in Hama into extinction. On no account are they willing to share power with their deadliest enemy.
Washington’s plans are confounded by Russia, China and Iran
– Shiite Iran is putting all its military and economic might at Assad’s disposal intent on frustrating the US-Turkish steps (in which Saudi Arabia is also involved) for opening government up to the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood in Damascus – any more than it wants to see them in control of the levers of government anywhere in the region, whether in Tripoli, Cairo or Ankara.
– For Moscow, fundamentalist Muslim power is traditionally anathema – an invitation to Russia’s own Muslim minority to get big ideas. Beijing is equally loath to see Muslim power reigning in the Middle East under US influence.
The power struggle in Syria has therefore morphed into a contest over the future of Muslim government in the new Middle East regimes. If the military rulers of Cairo see Assad defeating the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, they may be encouraged to crack down on the Egyptian Brothers too – to the dismay of the Obama administration.
Washington is now challenged by outside forces which outweigh the Obama administration at this moment of decline in the US president’s political standing and Europe’s life-and-death struggle to save the European Union and the euro.

DEBKA.

The first 10 months of the Arab Revolt have produced the overthrow of just two rulers, Zin Ben-Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt; two with one foot out, Muammar Qaddafi in Libya and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen; and two still at the helm, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Bahrain and Bashar Assad in Syria. The focus has shifted from anti-regime protest to civil war and cross-border conflicts amid a busy game of musical chairs.
Some intelligence analysts, especially in the United States, foresee the wheel of revolt turning back to its starting-point this year – or some time in 2012 and slamming into the royal houses of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Some assessments go so far as to include the Turkish and Iranian regimes in the next cycle. Instability on the Palestinian scene is a given.
For now, the Middle East is beset with three wars – the six-month old armed resistance to the Assad regime and the two actively simmering conflicts waged against Israel by Turkey and Egypt.
Violent war rhetoric hit the airwaves from Cairo Tuesday, Sept. 13 when visiting Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan delivered a diatribe entirely devoted to defaming Israel to the Arab League foreign ministers in session there.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked with misplaced faith that “common sense and cool reasoning would eventually prevail in Ankara.” Erdogan, for his part, shouted: “States (meaning Israel), just like individuals, have to pay the price for murders, for acts of terrorism they committed so that we can live in a more just world.” He warned Israel that its government was “endangering its existence.”
Washington and Moscow pull in opposite directions
These remarks amplified the accusation of casus belli which Turkish Prime Minister Thursday, Sept. 8 hurled at Israel’s naval interception last year of a Turkish vessel bound for the blockaded Gaza Strip. In Cairo, he called Israeli “a terrorist state” deserving of military punishment by the international community exactly the same way as NATO dealt with the Libyan ruler.
On Sunday, Sept. 11, just one day after an Egyptian mob burst into the Israeli embassy in Cairo, wrecked its interior and forced the ambassador and embassy staff to fly home, Israel transferred its elite Golani Brigade, to southern Israel for deployment along the 260-kilometer long Egyptian border
This action was in tune with Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz‘s comment Aug. 24 that the Israeli Defense Forces no longer perceived the Egyptian border as a frontier of peace.
Additional DEBKA-Net-Weekly analyses and reports in this issue will demonstrate how Washington and Moscow are now puling in opposite directions in the Middle East: The US is laboring to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up – at best into limited military confrontations – for the first time in the 10-month Arab upheaval, whereas Russia has stepped in to rescue Syria’s Assad and bolster his regime.
In other words, while the Obama administration is striving the contain the initial fallout from the Arab Revolt and save Israel from being dragged into a regional conflict, Moscow has put up a big Stop sign in Damascus against US and NATO intervention.
Russia helps Iran help Assad
Russia has therefore walked away from its earlier bid to mediate an amicable settlement of the Libyan crisis and Assad’s removal in harmony with Washington (See DEBKA-Net-Weekly 500 of July 15: A new Troika: Obama, Medvedev and Merkel Set out to Cut Short Libyan War, Remove Assad), claiming it was deceived. The Russians accuse America of using Moscow’s approach to Qaddafi to cover up its plot for his overthrow.
Three months on, they are resolved to prevent this fate overtaking the Syrian ruler.
Our Moscow sources report that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin assigned their top diplomatic troubleshooter, presidential personal envoy Mikhail Margelov, who is also chairman of the Russian upper house’s foreign affairs committee, with going to Damascus and advising Assad on ways and means of subduing the revolt against his rule without incurring the backlash of US and European diplomatic and economic sanctions.
(See a separate item on Syria’s decisive military operation for crushing the revolt)
On Saturday, September 10, Margelov declared his government would do everything in its power to save Syria from following the Libya scenario.
Ankara shifts military threats from Syria to Israel
Now for the first time in the ten months of the Arab Revolt, two non-Arab countries are keeping the Syria ruler on his feet against an uprising. In recent days, his Iranian advisers on tactics were seen putting their heads together with the Russian envoy and his staff. And while there is no solid intelligence that Russia and Iran are coordinating their aid shipments to Assad, it may be presumed that the holds of the Russian military planes unloading at Damascus military airport ammunition, night vision equipment and replacement parts for the Syrian tanks crushing the protesters do not carry the same cargoes as the Iranian planes bringing in mostly riot dispersal equipment.
Turkey too has shifted ground on Syria. Gone are the threats of imminent military intervention against Assad’s brutal crackdown on dissent; its Prime Minister is no longer aligned with President Barack Obama on Syria.
Indeed the last time Erdogan and Obama discussed their partnership on Syria was more than a month ago on Aug. 11 after Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called on Assad in Damascus. They decided then to raise the military heat on Syria incrementally, while supplying the protesters with logistics, money, intelligence and arms.
That decision has been overtaken by events.
In the light of Russian moves in Damascus – which DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources report are closely tracked by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization-MIT – Ankara is turning its ire on Israel.
Turkey changes partners
As for Syria, on September 6, 2011, Lt. Col. Husain Harmoush, spokesman and de facto leader of the Syrian Free Officers Movement (FOM), was interviewed by a Turkish Official at one of the camps accommodating Syrian refugees from Assad’s violence.
Shortly thereafter, he vanished. His whereabouts are still unknown.
FOM was established by defectors from Syria’s armed forces who refused to fire live ammunition at civilian demonstrators. Some are known to have gone to ground at Jabal al-Zawya, an inaccessible, rugged region of northeastern Syria not far from the Turkish border. They have been carrying out hit-and-run raids against the Assad regime’s Shabbiha thugs.
According to various Middle Eastern sources, Ankara handed Hamoush over to the Syrian authorities for the price of seven wanted Kurdish dissidents. Western and Arab intelligence sources confirmed that Turkish authorities held Hamoush in custody for a few days before surrendering him to Syria for almost certain torture and death.
Ibrahim Harmoush, the brother of the missing colonel said he would never have fallen into Syrian hands unless he was betrayed by Turkey.
That is not the only sign of Erdogan’s double game on Syria against both the US and the Saudis, who are supplying Assad’s antagonists with weapons via Jordan and Iraq.
On the one hand, he poses as the leader of the Western and Muslim effort to overthrow Assad. On the other, he is playing ball with the Syrian ruler and apparently delivering wanted protest activists into his hands.
Obama hedges his support for Ankara
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military experts say that Ankara sees the logic of its dive into the murky swamp of intrigue and counter-intrigue surrounding Bashar Assad. Before embarking on even a limited military clash with Israel, Erdogan feels he must turn his back on cooperating with the US and NATO – even though Turkey is a member – and switch to cultivating the antagonists of US Middle East policy like Russia, Iran and Egypt.
Sensing this change of spots, US officials in Washington reacted cagily Tuesday, September 13, to a Turkish request for a fleet of US Predator drones to be deployed on its soil to support operations against the Kurdish rebel PKK hideouts in northern Iraq. The US government was said to have reached no decision yet on the request.
Only a week ago, the US was aiding the Turkish operation against the rebels (as reported in our last issue No. 508, of Sept. 9: First US-Turkish-Iranian-Iraqi KRG Armed Alliance: Their Joint Offensive against Kurdish Rebels).
Today, the Obama administration thinks twice about its support – and not just because of spiraling Turkish military preparations for confronting Israel, but in view of the threatening Turkish fleet movements in the Mediterranean, which are taking place without reference to the US or NATO.

DEBKA.

Barbarossa Hayreddin Pasha

Unannounced and unobtrusively, Turkey has embarked on the biggest naval “exercise” it has ever staged in the Mediterranean Sea, although its codename Operation Barbarossa speaks louder than words,
The US Sixth Fleet and European NATO members’ navies won’t have missed the new arrivals in the waters they regularly cruise and Turkish historians will have picked up the connotation of its codename:
Barbarossa Hayreddin Pasha (1478 –1546) was an Ottoman admiral who dominated the Mediterranean for decades. He was born on the island of Lesbos/ Mytilini and died in Constantinople (Istanbul), the Ottoman capital. Hayreddin which literally means Goodness or best of the Religion of Islam was an honorary name given him by Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent. The name Barbarossa (Redbeard in Italian) he inherited from his elder brother “Baba Oruç” who died in battle with the Spanish in Algeria.
The operation’s label therefore trumpets Turkey’s ambition to hark back to the days when the Ottoman Empire ruled the waves of the Middle East and beyond.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military experts evaluate the new naval balance:
The Turkish Navy has 19 frigates, 14 submarines, 7 corvettes, 75 navy aircraft and 108 fast attack craft, manned by a total of 48,600 personnel.
Based at its Southern Sea Area Command headquartered in Izmir are a naval infantry brigade and an amphibious group operating out of Foca and a naval infantry battalion in Izmir.
At the Aksaz Naval Base Command near Marmaris, Turkey maintains special units for underwater defense and attacks, as well as six naval helicopters.
Also in the south, Turkey has its largest naval training center at Iskenderun.
The Turkish Air Force has more than 250 F-16 and F-4E Phantom fighter aircraft. Over 50 of the latter were modernized by Israel in the 1990s and 2000s. Turkey is also purchasing some 100 next-generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Lightning II fighter jets.
Turkey outmatched both quantitatively and qualitatively
It is obvious to any naval warfare expert that this fleet is not up to challenging the US and European forces on duty in the Mediterranean.
It would even be outmatched by Israel’s much smaller navy, which numbers only three corvettes, 10 missile boats, three submarines and 42 patrol boats and is manned by some 19,500 personnel. This is because Israel enjoys air superiority in the eastern Mediterranean thanks to a flock of missile-armed drones operating from bases close to its Mediterranean coast and its novel electronic systems, which are capable of jamming the command, control, weapons systems and communications networks carried aboard Turkish warships.
In May 2010, Israel chose not to impose an electronic blackout on the Turkish-led flotilla which aimed to break Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip so as not to expose its electronic secrets to Turkey whose Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was already showing marked hostility to the Jewish state. Instead, Israeli commandos boarded the Turkish Mavis Marmara to face armed activists in a clash which left nine dead.
Undeterred by the superior naval strength facing him, Erdogan let it be known the day before his “historic visit” to Cairo on Sept. 12, that the Turkish Navy is to dispatch three frigates to the eastern Mediterranean “to ensure the freedom of navigation” and to confront Israeli warships if necessary..
Turkish naval sources added that the frigates dispatched by the Southern Sea Area Command will protect civilian ships carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza. If they encounter an Israeli military ship outside Israel’s 12-mile territorial waters, they are instructed to advance to within 100 meters and disable its weapon.
The same sources likened a potential confrontation of this nature to “Turkish dogfights in the Aegean Sea with Greek jet fighters.”
Ankara scraps with Nicosia over gas and oil exploration
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources read into the reference to dogfights with Greece Ankara’s awareness of the military ties taking solid form between Greece, Turkey’s traditional archenemy, and Israel since Ankara turned its back on Jerusalem. Under a mutual defense pact they signed secretly on Sept 4, the Israeli Air Force has permission to use Greek air bases.
The mention of Greece is a veiled Turkish threat to hold in its sights the Greek base from which Israeli combat planes and helicopters may take off. Also targeted are the Greek air and naval umbrella over Cyprus and the oil and gas wells Nicosia is about to drill in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara suspects that the Israeli-Greek defense accords provide Greek Cyprus with an Israel air and naval shield. It is therefore packaging Israel, Greece and Greek Cyprus together as its prey.
Tuesday, Sept. 13, Cyprus and Turkey exchanged heated words over Nicosia’s plans to start deep sea drilling for oil and gas next month. This further raised tempers at the peace talks taking place on the fate of the divided island at the same time as Ankara feuds with Israel.
Cypriot President Demetris Christofias denounced Turkish “threats.” He asserted that Cyprus as a member of the European Union would expect the international community to come to its aid. Greece and Israel are already involved.
The Turkish foreign ministry spokesman hit back by slamming the Greek Cypriot government’s plan to start exploiting oil and gas reserves before reaching a peace accord with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus –TRNC, which only Turkey recognizes.
Oil needed to promote neo-Ottomanism
Erdogan believes his maneuvers for stirring up a quarrel between Israel and Cyprus will result in pushing both out of the offshore oil and gas fields they are developing. The way will then be clear for a Turkish grab which is almost certain to be backed by Syria, Hizballah, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
Therefore, behind the Turkish leader’s bitter taunts against Israel (“States like individuals have to pay the price for murders, for acts of terrorism they committed so that we can live in a more just world”), lurks a crude ulterior objective – namely, to snatch the oil and gas away from the Jews and Christians and transfer them into Muslim hands.
In a word, Erdogan needs control of energy resources to promote his neo-Ottoman ambitions and exercise his superiority in the oil-rich Middle East.
The Turks maintain that their new naval strategy is designed to ensure the security of navigation in the Eastern Mediterranean with the help of Turkish frigates, fast patrol boats, submarines, helicopters, maritime patrol aircraft and coast guard boats – and expand their destinations.
Our military and intelligence sources affirm that Operation Barbarossa is not confined to the Mediterranean. It aims to bring the Turkish navy to the Aegean Sea, the Black Sea, the Adriatic Sea, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, maintaining these naval assets in a state of constant navigation in the sense of the Turkish phrase süyrüsefer.
Ruling the waves of six seas
The Erdogan regime thus seeks to establish a permanent fleet presence on the six seas of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and southern Europe, having taken a leaf out of the Iranian book as articulated by Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari on Aug. 21:
“Presence on the high seas needs a strategic naval force and any country able to maintain its long-term presence on the high seas enjoys a strategic advantage.”
The Iranian general had his eye on the Atlantic Ocean.

US Urges Americans Out of Syria.

(AFP) – The US government Thursday urged Americans to leave Syria “immediately while commercial transportation is available.”

In an updated travel warning, the State Department also said that “given the ongoing uncertainty and volatility of the current situation, US citizens who must remain in Syria are advised to limit nonessential travel within the country. US citizens not in Syria should defer all travel to Syria at this time.”

Noting the massive, recurring demonstrations against the government of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, the statement said, “We remind US citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence. US citizens are urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of a demonstration.”

It also warned, “Syrian efforts to attribute the current civil unrest to external influences have led to an increase in anti-foreigner sentiment. Detained U.S. citizens may find themselves subject to allegations of incitement or espionage.”

Syrian authorities sometimes wait days or weeks to notify the US embassy of the arrest of an American citizen, it cautioned, and “there have been numerous credible reports of torture in Syrian prisons.”

Last July, the American embassy in Damascus was violently attacked by pro-government demonstrators and closed for a day.

However, the statement said the embassy “continues to provide passport services, as well as other emergency services to U.S. citizens.”

The State Department ordered all eligible family members of US government employees as well as certain non-emergency personnel to leave Syria on April 25.

Energy Tribune- Spying Iran’s Nuclear End Game.

As John le Carré’s Cold War spy movie Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy opens to rave reviews in London, so the story of Iran’s nuclear program is taking on a dark le Carré-esque ‘keep-em-guessing’ undercurrent. Probably how Teheran’s ‘cloak and dagger’ regime prefers it. The question is: whose intelligence (pun intended) would it fool?

Iran’s nuclear activities happen to be in the shadow of the post-Fukushima world which, among other things, includes Germany’s knee-jerk reaction to dump its nuclear program. And presently, the nuclear explosion at Marcoule, France is making news – not least for the problems it is likely to create for the vital implementation of nuclear policies in places such as Britain. Plenty on our nuclear radar to keep us busy then.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic’s first nuclear power plant finally opened for business this month garnering surprisingly few headlines. While for some, Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain unclear with the real stories currently in Germany and France, just as in a le Carré novel, there is a growing abundance of tantalising ‘clues’ that suggest a more significant master plan taking shape out east. All along, there is this widespread suspicion that a nuclear reactor in Iran is not just for power generation in the first place so the same soul searching now gripping several countries simply does not apply.

Just before midnight on Saturday September 3, the Russian-built, Bushehr nuclear plant finally began trial producing 60 megawatts of power to the country’s power grid. Just nine days later, however, senior Iranian and Russian officials were in attendance as the $1 billion plant officially opened shifting gear to deliver between 350-400 megawatts, around 40 percent of the plant’s proposed capacity. The 1,000 megawatt facility is scheduled to operate at 100 percent capacity by December 2011. Thereafter Iran proposes a network of similar plants that will help Iran “abandon its reliance on fossil fuels”.

Ironically, if people could trust Iran, there is quite a rational reason for the country to develop nuclear power. That would free quite a bit of fossil fuels now used in power generation. Iran with massive oil and natural gas reserves but with a burgeoning population has been dependent for years on the importation of foreign refined gasoline to run its cars. Sanctions and a woefully inefficient energy management have prevented Iran to develop its fossil fuel reserve potential.

As the Bushehr trial got under way in early September, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told AFP that the, “agreement with Iran on Bushehr means that Russia will provide fuel for Bushehr and will take back the spent fuel”. So there it is. Russia is pencilled in both to provide the enriched uranium Bushehr needs and will also remove the spent fuel rods. Unfortunately for those weary of Iran, uranium enrichment in that country is about to be stepped up.

Alluding to Russia’s role in dealing with Bushehr’s enriched uranium, U.S. State department’s Nuland also stated that it, “underscores the point that Iran doesn’t need its own enrichment facilities”. She was referring to Iran’s defiant message in June this year that it would be moving its 20 percent enriched high-grade uranium from its Natanz site to the underground mountain bunker site at Fordow, near the city of Qom. And, just for good measure, Iran announced it would also increase its enriched uranium capacity. Western intelligence only detected the Qom bunker site in September 2009 and concluded, given Iran had kept the site top secret, it provided clear evidence of covert nuclear work.

Nuland further sets the ball of current diplomatic concern rolling, stating: “Iran is now the only country in the world with an operating power reactor that has not ratified the Convention on Nuclear Safety, a fact she finds “quite troubling”.

Enter Yukiya Amano, head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear agency who has announced plans to publish new information backing his “increasing concern” that Iran is in fact working on a nuclear warhead. It seems that before going public, Amano first had to square things with the agency’s 35 board member nations. The IAEA’s next detailed report on Iran’s nuclear developments was formally due in November; the Bushehr launch may, however, force a pre-emptive ‘publication’ strike.

Clearly an increasingly twitchy Israel is weighing its options. Last month former United States Vice President Dick Cheney upped the diplomatic ante in an interview with U.S. Newsmax magazine. Asked about the possibility of an Israeli attack, Cheney said, “Iran represents an existential threat, and the Israelis will do whatever they have to do to guarantee their survival and their security.” Pressed on his source, Cheney maintained he was not quoting any individual Israeli but was summing up conversations he had recently had with “a number of Israeli officials” who “correctly perceive Iran as a basic threat.”

Israel’s nerves are bound to fray further as they await the IAEA’s “new evidence”. But then there’s also the issue of the “bizarre article” on an Iranian Revolutionary Guard website. As Julian Borger’s Global Security Blog at the UK’s Guardian newspaper rightly points out, “Any mention of an Iranian nuclear weapon is taboo in the Islamic Republic”. So why, Borger asks, has an article (in Farsi) appeared on the Gerdab website, a site run by revolutionary guards, that suggests to domestic readers that the impact of an Iranian nuclear weapon test would just amount to another “normal day” in Iran? Borger’s goes on to provide an extensive translation of the article that appears, as Borger suggests, to “have the look of a kite being flown …to get Iranians used to the idea of a nuclear test, and less fearful of international reaction” in its wake. As Borger observes, the article “hammers home the message that an Iranian nuclear test will not lead to disaster” and that “life will go on as before”.

While world leaders continue to be perplexed as to Iran’s ultimate nuclear ambitions, we might wonder why Iran with the world’s second largest natural gas reserves has not develop them and, instead, it has opted for a fast-track a nuclear power program, essentially one that it does not need. As we wait to hear the IAEA’s “concerning” evidence, it seems that it is far from difficult to discern Iran’s real master plan which involves catapulting itself to superpower status, assume technological pre-eminence in the Islamic world and, for good measure, fulfil its openly stated ambition to “wipe Israel off the map”.

The fact is, however the West and Israel play it from here – as last year’s Wiki-leaks releases made abundantly clear – Iran’s Arab neighbors fear Teheran’s regional ambitions every bit as much as Israel does. Anti-Israeli scimitar-rattling apart (purely for domestic consumption), Arab leaders would be just as pleased to see Iran’s nuclear uranium enrichment facilities ‘closed down’. While Iran continues to believe its bunkers to be bomb-proof, U.S. General David Petraeus is already on record countering that assertion that even if it moved below ground, “Washington had developed a contingency plan for dealing with Iran’s contentious nuclear program”.

The mystery surrounding Teheran’s nuclear plotting looks, finally, to be heading for its intriguing denouement.

Once More Into the Swamp: The Attack on Israel’s Embassy Opens A New Era in Middle East History.

The attack and looting of Israel’s embassy in Cairo is an event as significant as the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Iran, in 1979, and the attack on the World Trade Center in 2001.

The first event signaled a change in Iran and the rise of a powerful revolutionary Islamist movement. The results have included an increase in anti-Western politics in the Middle East, an upsurge in terrorism, and three wars in the Persian Gulf (Iran-Iraq, 1980-1988; Kuwait, 1990-1991; Iraq, 2003).

The second event brought the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq; a major upsurge in terrorism, and big advances for revolutionary Islamism despite the later defeats suffered by al-Qaida itself.

And now the third event, which many will see as far less significant. But it isn’t. While ground center for the first two were, respectively, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan, this one strikes at the core area of the Arabic-speaking world and the Arab-Israeli issue.

What the attack on the Israeli embassy signifies can be divided into Egyptian and wider implications. Concerning Egypt, the era of Egypt-Israeli peace is over. Egypt will be a hostile country to Israel and the government will make no attempt to stop hysterical incitement and hatred. It is more likely to stop cross-border attacks from Egyptian territory and try to avoid direct war.

Yet even those limits are misleading. Mubarak’s Egypt was aligned — though not allied — with Israel and the United States. Post-Mubarak Egypt is allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, even if that group isn’t in power, and Hamas. It will not cooperate with the United States. The cornerstone, the lynch-pin, the most powerful country, of the Arab world has gone over to the other side.

Within Egypt itself, the riot and the military junta’s permissiveness toward it is a big step toward ending any hope of democracy or moderation within Egypt itself. Recognizing the power of the mob and the potency of its ideas — kill the Jews, wipe Israel off the map, down with America, war, jihad, total victory, a million martyrs! — the military junta stood aside and let the crowd rampage. Egypt’s international image and legitimate commitments are of no consequence in the face of this tidal wave of insane, suicidal hatred.

Not far from the Israeli embassy was a famous statue called Egypt’s Awakening. Anti-Israel demonstrators broke off pieces of the statue in their attack on the embassy. In other words, Egypt’s new “awakening” (the February revolution) is being reinterpreted as the same old determination to destroy Israel. At the same time, that choice is destroying any chance for a real Egyptian awakening, that is one involving democracy, pragmatism, and material progress.

A young Egyptian, describing himself as a “liberal reformer” cheered the use of the statue for this purpose saying that he was glad it had served the cause. Asked by an American whether he feared the revolutionary Islamists taking advantage of this kind of activity, he responded — by twitter, of course — that Israel is his enemy and that the Muslim Brotherhood is “a piece of cake.”

By using such an American slang phrase he showed his cosmopolitan background, with which such sentiments are obviously consistent in Egypt. “Piece of cake” means something dealt with easily. He is saying that the moderates can easily deal with the Brotherhood. That is, of course, ridiculous. The American responded that the moderates are the “piece of cake” and they will end up in the Brotherhood’s stomach.

The April 6 Youth Movement, the left-oriented group that began the revolution back in January, made a surprising statement criticizing the attack. It is especially surprising since that group has a long history of anti-Israel activity and has in the past been in partnership with the Brotherhood. A couple of months ago, at a time when there was no fighting in the Gaza Strip and Israeli sanctions there had already been minimized, one Movement leader said that Israel was committing “genocide” in the Gaza Strip and that Egypt must act. Be careful what you wish for because you might get it.

Now the Movement’s leaders, if not the tweeter mentioned above, are getting scared. They see that the revolution is no longer in their hands and is headed toward a new dictatorship likely to repeat all of the mistakes of Egypt’s past.

Another example of this awakening about the nature of Egypt’s awakening. A CNN television crew covering the attack on the embassy was attacked by some of the demonstrators, who screamed that they were American spies. The CNN people finally escaped.

Afterward, the crew’s producer said that the attackers had acted like “animals.” If she had been a Westerner she would have immediately been fired and no one would ever have employed her again. But since she was herself Egyptian such an expression was considered acceptable. One can well imagine how it feels for an Egyptian to see her neighbors turned once again into a raging mob out for blood and indifferent to the consequences.

Like Iranians in the 1970s, and like Lebanese, Turks, Libyans, and perhaps soon Tunisians, she is witnessing her country run eagerly back into the darkness of a new, even worse situation than the one that had driven them to dream of a stainless brave new world.

The broader, foreign policy, implications of this lynch mob are equally enormous.

First, Egypt will not try to restrain Hamas from attacking Israel. If Hamas does attack Israel from the Gaza Strip, the Egyptian government will not inhibit the flow of arms, money, and volunteer fighters to join the war against Israel from Hamas-held territory. Under such circumstances, Egypt could conceivably be dragged into a war with Israel.

Second, Egypt will seek out a new alliance system. The most likely candidates for its friendship are Hamas, Turkey, and the Muslim Brotherhoods in Jordan and Syria. It will oppose Iran’s Shia-led Islamist bloc and the two sides could clash in various places.

Third, whatever minimal hope remained for any Arab-Israeli or Israeli-Palestinian peace process is now dead, killed not only by the defection of Egypt but also by that of Turkey, by the Palestinian decision to pursue unilateral independence, and by the self-chosen weakening of the United States.

Every gain made in the Middle East since the 1970s is now melting away. What makes this all worse is that the disaster is being cheered in much of the West as something good, or at least has been up until now.

European parliament calls for Assad to go as Syrian activists form ‘national’ council.

Al Arabiya

Thursday, 15 September 2011

A child with his face painted in the colours of the Syrian flag attends a protest march against President Bashar al-Assad organised by the Syrian minority in Bucharest. (Photo by Reuters)

inShare0

‘Warships could be in E… JPost – Arts & Culture – Entertainment.

    ANKARA – Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan said on Thursday Israel could not do whatever it wanted in the Eastern Mediterranean and that Turkish warships could be there at any moment.

“Israel cannot do whatever it wants in the eastern Mediterranean. They will see what our decisions will be on this subject. Our navy attack ships can be there at any moment,” Erdoğan told a news conference on a visit to the Tunisian capital.

Erdoğan was in Tunisia as part of a so-called Arab Spring tour of Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, three nations that saw their long-time leaders deposed within the last number of months.

Last week, Erdoğan said Turkish warships will escort any Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Erdogan also said that Turkey had taken steps to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern Mediterranean, according to Al Jazeera’s Arabic translation of excerpts of the interview, which was conducted in Turkish.

Israel has stuck to its policy of restraint despite continued threats from Turkey that it will attack the IDF and amid concern that Erdoğan’s trip to Egypt was aimed at establishing a permanent Turkish naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Erdoğan visited Egypt on Tuesday for talks with the transitional government as part of a bid to solidify Turkey’s standing in the Arab world. The visit came as media in Turkey reported that its defense industry has developed a new identification system for its F-16 fighter jets that will allow it to attack Israeli planes.

The report on the fighter jet identification system was the latest in a series of threats coming out of Ankara, and followed a report on Monday that Turkey was sending three frigates to the Eastern Mediterranean to protect aid ships trying to break the Israeli-imposed sea blockade on the Gaza Strip.

In an effort to prevent a further deterioration in ties, Israeli government officials declined to comment specifically on the various reports originating in Ankara and said Tuesday that Israel was growing concerned with the threats.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 15, 2011, 10:51 AM (GMT+02:00)

Turkish warplanes

Israel and Greece have invoked the mutual defense pact they signed secretly only 12 days ago in the light of heavy Turkish sea and air movements in the eastern Mediterranean. debkafile‘s sources report that this was decided in a long nocturnal phone conversation Wednesday night Sept. 14 between the Israeli and Greek prime ministers, Binyamin Netanyahu and George Papandreou, and at Israel’s expanded cabinet of eight, which was called into session over the Turkish threat to its off-shore oil and gas rigs.
The Greek Prime Minister added to the information recorded so far on Turkish fleet movements in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas. He was particularly concerned by the observation flights suddenly increased in the past 48 hours over the Greek island of Kastelorizo in the southeast Mediterranean just two kilometers from the Turkish coast. Those flights are escorted by Turkish combat jets.
Athens fears a Turkish attack on the island, whose population is fewer than 1,000, and an attempt to damage or seize it. Israel suspects that a Turkish attack on the Greek island will be the signal for Turkish military aggression against its oil and gas platforms located in the Mediterranean between Israel and Cyprus. Papandreou said the Turks are capable of surprise attacks on additional Greek islands near the Turkish coast.
Ankara would be acting on the pretext that Israel and Cyprus have no right to mark out and exploit the gas and oil zones of the eastern Mediterranean – a fuel-rich region known as Block 12 – without the consent of Turkish Cyprus (the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus – TRNC). Turkey also backs Lebanon’s complaint that Israel is robbing it of its natural resources. Talks between Lebanon and Cyprus to resolve this issue broke down. Beirut refuses any discussion with Israel.

Neither Jerusalem nor Athens has disclosed in what way they have invoked the new defense pact.

debkafile‘s military sources surmise that in the first stage, Israeli navy and air forces are to be posted at Greek Mediterranean bases. The two intelligence agencies are already sharing input.
Up until now, Israel could only respond to a Turkish threat from its own borders. With a presence at Greek military bases, Israel will be able to operate from the rear of Turkish forces in the event of an attack by those forces in the Mediterranean.
Monday, Sept. 12, Ankara dictated conditions for Israel to obey in order to keep its navy afloat free of Turkish aggression:

1. Israel vessels are prohibited from taking action against Turkish ships heading for the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has declared “null and void” the UN report confirming the legality of Israel’s blockade of Gaza.

2. Israeli warships crossing the 12-mile line bounding its territorial waters will be challenged by Turkish warships, which are instructed to approach them to within 100 meters and “disable their weapons.”

This threat covers not only shipping bound for Gaza but also Israel’s oil and gas drilling platforms which are more than 60 miles out to sea.
Israel’s political and military spokesmen have been trying hard to downplay the Turkish menace. On Wednesday, Sept. 14, they brushed aside reports of Turkish naval and air movements in the eastern Mediterranean. After the cabinet of eight’s meeting, the official line was that Israel is practicing “restraint in contrast to Turkish wildness” and they should be given time to cool down. In any case, the US and NATO were closely monitoring the crisis Ankara is generating with Israel, Greece and Cyprus, and won’t let it degenerate into Turkish military action.

But both Israel and Greece appear to know better: They decided to invoke their mutual defense pact – not before obtaining a green light from Washington – because they believe the Turkish threats indicated by its military movements are real and tangible.