WarSclerotic

IDF general: Likelihood of regional war growing – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Senior IDF officer warns of ‘radical Islamic winter’ that may lead to regional war, could prompt use of WMDs; new, more lethal weapons discovered in hands of terrorists during latest round of fighting in Gaza, Major General Eisenberg says

Yoav Zitun

Recent revolutions in the Arab world and the deteriorating ties with Turkey are raising the likelihood of a regional war in the Middle East, IDF Home Front Command Chief, Major General Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday.

“It looks like the Arab Spring, but it can also be a radical Islamic winter,” he said in a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

“This leads us to the conclusion that through a long-term process, the likelihood of an all-out war is increasingly growing,” the IDF general said.

“Iran has not abandoned its nuclear program. The opposite it true; it continues full steam ahead,” he said. “In Egypt, the army is collapsing under the burden of regular security operations, and this is reflected in the loss of control in the Sinai and the turning of the border with Israel into a terror border, with the possibility that Sinai will fall under the control of an Islamic entity.”

Iranian missile (Photo: Reuters)

“In Lebanon, Hezbollah is growing stronger within government arms, but it has not lost its desire to harm Israel, and the ties with Turkey aren’t at their best,” Major General Eisenberg added.

Weapons of mass destruction?

Referring to what he characterized as the possibility of a “radical Islamic winter,” Major-General Eisenberg said: “This raises the likelihood of an all-out, total war, with the possibility of weapons of mass destruction being used.”

During his address, the senior IDF official revealed that new, more lethal arms surfaced in the hands of Gaza terror groups during the latest round of fighting in the area. As result of the disturbing development, Israeli civilians were instructed to adopt greater precautions, he said.”We discovered a new weapon, and as result of this we instructed the public to hide under two roofs, rather than only one,” he said.

Eisenberg added that some 25% of local authorities in Israel are ill prepared to face emergency situations.

Israel: Turkey wants confrontation – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Officials in Jerusalem not surprised by detention of Israeli passengers at Istanbul airport, say Turkey seeking clash; ‘Turkish economy will be hurt, businesspeople and tourists will refrain from traveling there,’ one source says

Attila Somfalvi

 Officials in Jerusalem say they were not surprised by reports that Israeli passengers were held up at the Istanbul airport Monday, charging that Ankara is seeking to provoke an open confrontation with Israel.

“The Turks are trying to forcefully lead us into an open confrontation and street fights in the international arena, but we shall not give them this pleasure,” one diplomatic source told Ynet Monday afternoon. 

“The operation against the flotilla was justified, the Gaza Strip blockade was justified, and the detention of Israelis at a Turkish airport is unacceptable – yet things may further deteriorate,” she said. “It won’t end with delays at the airport.”

Dozens of Israeli passengers on board a Turkish Airlines flight from Tel Aviv to Istanbul were held for several hours by local police after their passports were taken away from them. Some of them said they underwent a humiliating investigation by local authorities before being released. Israelis who frequently make the trip told Ynet such incident was unprecedented.

“I think that the police officers didn’t even know what they were looking for,” one of the passengers told Ynet. “They apparently got an order to detain us, one by one. Everyone was in shock; we didn’t know what they were going to do to us. Obviously this was done intentionally in order to create an unpleasant feeling.”

“We were not surprised by what happened there. After all, the Turks promised to harass us, and this is one way of doing it,” an Israeli official said. “Yet at the end of the day, the Turkish economy will be hurt after it loses businesspeople and tourists. Who would want to arrive in Turkey with such treatment?”

“We can obviously expect a difficult period vis-à-vis Turkey, yet this is something that was taken into account,” one official said.

Turkey’s decision to downgrade its diplomatic relations with Israel was taken after Israel’s refusal to apologize for the raid in a Gaza-bound Turkish vessel in 2010.

Opposition Chairwoman Tzipi Livni also addressed Monday’s incident in Istanbul, saying that Turkey recognizes Israeli weakness and allows itself to do things that were not done in the past.

Gunfire, explosions at Syrian military airport as more troops defect.

Al Arabiya

Monday, 05 September 2011

Clashes broke out this morning between defected Syrian troops and forces loyal to President Basar al-Assad in a military airport near Damascus, activists said. (File Photo)

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DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report September 5, 2011, 1:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

Advanced IR-2m centrifuge

The UN International Atomic Energy Agency Friday, Sept. 2 stressed its increasing concern “about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile, about which the Agency continues to receive new information.”

The nuclear watchdog was also alarmed by three disclosures made by Fereydoon Abbas, head of Iran’s atomic energy agency, Monday, Aug. 29, attesting to the speeding-up of its military nuclear program and preparations for a possible attack on its installations.
1. Abbasi boasted that Iran’s nuclear fuel production already far exceeded its needs. debkafile‘s military sources report that this first public announcement meant that Tehran was about to move on from 20 percent enriched uranium to 60 percent – the last step before the 90 percent enrichment for weapons-grade fuel.

According to several sources, Iran has already stocked 4,500 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, which would be enough for four nuclear weapons after further enrichment.
2.  Abbas pronounced “dead” the 2009 proposal for the West to supply Iran with new fuel for its small research reactor in return for an end to Iranian production of the fuel. “We will no longer negotiate a fuel swap and a halt to our production of fuel,” he said.

3. The head of Iran’s atomic agency also revealed the imminent transfer of its critical enrichment facilities from Natanz to a heavily fortified subterranean facility near the holy city of Qom to keep it safe from air, missile and cyber attack.

Tehran has made it clear that the facility will not be open to international oversight and will use the most advanced centrifuges – IR-4 and IR-2m – for speeding up the production of highly-enriched uranium.

Western intelligence sources estimated Sunday, Sept. 4, that Iran’s advances had brought forward to the spring of 2012 the potential completion of between two and four bombs and the ability to conduct  a nuclear test.

At the White House, Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the National Security Council said that the Iranian plan “to install and operate centrifuges at Qom is a violation of their United Nations security obligations and another provocative act.”

While demonstrating the arrogance of a would-be global nuclear power, Iran suffered an unexpected diplomatic snub Sunday, Sept. 4, when parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani was informed at the last minute that he would not get to meet the Chinese and North Korean heads of state when he visited Beijing and Pyongyang – only low-ranking officials. He thereupon cancelled his trips.
China and North Korea appear to have decided to keep their distance from the nuclear miscreant in Tehran.
Last Wednesday, Aug. 31, French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned, “Iran’s attempts to build long-range missiles and nuclear weapons could lead unnamed countries to launch a pre-emptive attack.”

Defense establishment to simulate strike on nuclear facility – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Security forces to hold ‘worse case scenario’ drill testing enemy strike on nuclear compound, lessons learned from Japan’s Fukushima disaster

Yossi Yehoshua

The defense establishment will hold a special emergency drill this week, simulating an enemy strike on Israel‘s nuclear facility, Ynet has learned on Sunday.

According to a Yedioth Ahronoth report, “Operation Fernando” will aim to test the defense establishment’s readiness for the worst case scenario – a missile strike on the facility itself or its immediate surroundings.

The report found that while emergency services and municipalities’ communication and coordination with the Home Front Command had improved, the coordination between the emergency services themselves was still lacking.

The drill, whose details have been classified as top secret, is scheduled for Tuesday. Given its classification, only a handful of senior defense establishment officials are privy to its outline.

The Israel Atomic Energy Commission will oversee the drill, along with the Home Front Command and Ministry for Home Front Defense.

Apart from an enemy strike scenario, “Operation Fernando” also aims to test the implementation of various lessons learned from Japan’s Fukushima disaster.

“Operation Fernando” is the first of its kind to be held in Israel in the past seven years.Meanwhile, the defense establishment has finished its review of the results of “Turning Point 5” – the nationwide Home Front Command emergency drill, which tested war readiness in 85 cities and towns across Israel.

Security and Defense: Growin… JPost – Features – Week in review.

    When the Yom Kippur War broke out in 1973, Muhammad Tantawi was a young commander of Battalion 16 in the Egyptian Army’s 16th Infantry Division. Armed with Soviet-made Sagger anti-tank missiles, Tantawi’s battalion was ordered to hold a line along the Suez Canal and prevent Israeli tanks from crossing it.

On October 16, midway through the war, his battalion faced off against the IDF’s 14th Armored Brigade in what would later become known as the Battle of the Chinese Farm, named for an old agricultural station located just north of the Great Bitter Lake on the Suez Canal’s eastern bank.

Tantawi held his position for almost 48 hours, earning a medal of valor following the war. He fended off Israeli tanks and a battalion of paratroopers who tried to clear the area so Israel could lay down bridges to cross the canal.

The night of the 16th was the bloodiest of all, and the paratroopers suffered heavy losses. In an attempt to rescue the force, the IDF sent another armored battalion into the farms, led by a young lieutenant-colonel named Ehud Barak.

Today, 38 years later, Tantawi and Barak – once enemies – are leaders in their respective countries. Barak went on to become chief of the IDF General Staff, prime minister and now defense minister. Tantawi was appointed commander-in-chief of the Egyptian military in the early 1990s, and earlier this year he became the official interim leader of his country with the downfall of Hosni Mubarak.

In recent weeks, Barak and Tantawi have spoken several times by phone, and a number of Israeli delegations – led by the head of the Defense Ministry’s Diplomatic- Security Bureau, Amos Gilad – have traveled discreetly to Cairo for talks with Tantawi’s transitional government.

Considering the potential alternatives, Tantawi is described as a good partner for Israel, at least for the time being. While he is not overly warm toward the Jewish state – he fought against it in two wars that Egypt lost – he is part of the military’s old guard and understands that peace with Israel is what has opened the doors to America’s most advanced military equipment, from F-16 fighter jets to Harpoon missiles and Apache attack helicopters to M1A1 Abrams Tanks.

That is why, as tense as ties may have become in recent weeks, Tantawi will not be the one to rip up the peace treaty with Israel. The military needs the US and, as a result, needs Israel.

The real concern in Jerusalem is what happens the day after elections in Egypt, and whether a new president or parliament will share the same sentiment. The growing popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the growing anti-Israel sentiment on the streets and among presidential candidates, demonstrate just how volatile the situation really is.

For that reason, Israel is looking to remove itself from the Egyptian election agenda. One of the ways under consideration to do this is establishing a strategic dialogue with Egypt, in the framework of which Israel will initiate a comprehensive review of the peace treaty in light of recent changes, particularly the military developments in the Sinai.

While Israel has allowed 1,500 soldiers into the peninsula, for the most part these have been tactical decisions, something like crisis management. The thinking is that a comprehensive review, followed by overarching changes, could settle all of the open issues between the countries before the Egyptians go to the polls.

For something like this to happen, Israel would need to depend on strong American involvement. That is why Israel has remained quiet as American military sales to Egypt continue, like the announcement in July that the Pentagon had approved the sale of 125 additional Abrams tanks – the first large arms deal with Cairo since Mubarak was ousted from power in February – for an estimated $1.3 billion.

The sale itself raises serious questions for Israel. Egypt already has 1,000 Abrams tanks. With all of the economic, social, political and security challenges the interim regime faces, why does it need an additional 125 tanks? And why would the Obama administration approve the sale at a time of uncertainty regarding the future of Egypt and peace with Israel?

The answer to the first question is that while there has been a revolution, the Egyptian military is continuing with its set procurement plans as if nothing has changed. The more serious question, a senior defense official said this week, is against whom the Egyptians are continuing to arm themselves, when their borders are with Sudan and Libya and Israel. The first two don’t really have a military; the third is a country with which Egypt has a peace treaty.

The answer to the second question is that by selling arms and military platforms to Egypt, the US ensures that it retains a certain level of pressure and authority over the interim and future governments in Cairo. The thinking in the defense establishment is that in theory, this is an important factor, even at the risk of the Egyptians getting their hands on more advanced weaponry. The problem is that in practice, the US involvement in Egypt has yet to be truly felt. One clear example is the continued imprisonment of Ilan Grapel, the American-Israeli who has been held in Egypt since June on allegations that he was spying for the Mossad. If the US really has leverage, why is Grapel still in jail?

This sensitive situation is what brought Israel to restrain itself when responding to the attacks from the Sinai in mid-August even though the attackers came from Egypt and some of them were even Egyptians.

Israel today understands that the Gaza- Egypt axis is different than it was during the days of Mubarak and that the current regime and likely any future one will not be as understanding when Israel finally decides, if it ever does, to launch another Cast Lead.

One country that continues to gain from the world’s involvement in the so-called Arab Spring, and particularly the ongoing fighting in Libya, is Iran, which for the most part appears to have fallen off the world’s agenda.

The last major piece of news that came out of Iran regarding its nuclear program was the assassination of nuclear scientist Darioush Rezaie in late July, which has been attributed to the Mossad. Otherwise, things appear to be quiet, when in reality they are not.

IDF assessments are that Iran is purposely keeping a low profile regarding its nuclear program, but is at the same time using the world’s focus on the revolutions throughout the Arab world to speed up its nuclear work, and particularly the enrichment of uranium.

In the past two weeks alone, Iran has made two significant announcements.

The first is that it is moving its centrifuges to a site called Fordo, near Qom, which is located deep inside a mountain – seemingly to protect it from air strikes. The site, which Western intelligence agencies believe was supposed to store centrifuges for militarygrade enrichment, was hidden from United Nations inspectors and was exposed to the world by President Barack Obama in 2009.

The second announcement, made this week, was that Iran was stopping all negotiations over a potential nuclear fuel swap and that the Islamic Republic would continue to enrich its uranium independently.

Both announcements were made by Dr. Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization.

In November, Abbasi-Davani was on his way to work when a motorbike pulled up alongside him, and the rider attached a magnetic bomb to his car. Abbasi-Davani managed to escape the car and suffered light wounds. In another bombing that same morning, Majid Shahriari, another scientist with the Atomic Energy Organization, was killed.

Israel’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear program has not changed all that much despite the clear escalation in activity. Iran, Israeli intelligence believes, is continuing to stockpile enriched uranium and perfect its technology, and will then wait for the right time to go to the breakout stage and build the bomb.

When this happens is up to Iran, but for the time being, the threat is only growing.

Ahmadinejad: World changing to favor Pales… JPost – Middle East.

    World opinion is changing in favor of the Palestinian cause and Israel is on its way to collapse, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told head of Hamas political bureau Khaled Mashaal in a phone conversation on Saturday evening, according to IRNA news agency.

Ahmadinejad also added that Palestinians will always enjoy Iranian support.

Mashaal expressed gratitude for the support and said that Palestinian resistance will continue until they reach their ultimate goal.

Ahmadinejad’s comments echo a statement he made weeks ago that the creation of a universally-recognized Palestinian state would be just a first step towards wiping out Israel.

Restating a position expressed soon after taking office in 2005 that Israel was a “tumor” to be wiped off the map, he urged Palestinians not to settle for a two-state solution that is backed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas but to strive for a complete return of what they consider their land.

“Recognizing the Palestinian state is not the last goal. It is only one step forward towards liberating the whole of Palestine,” Ahmadinejad told worshippers at Friday prayers on international Quds Day – an annual show of support for the Palestinian cause.

‘Iran’s first nuclear power plan… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

TEHRAN – Iran’s first nuclear power plant, near the Gulf city of Bushehr, has started adding electricity to the national grid, the ISNA news agency reported on Sunday.

“The Bushehr nuclear power plant joined the national grid on Saturday at 23:29 (1859 GMT) with the power of around 60 megawatts,” ISNA said.

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The announcement comes three days after a statement by diplomats claiming that the UN International Atomic Energy Agency will once again highlight concern about possible military aspects to Iran’s nuclear activities in its latest quarterly report, due to be submitted to member states in the next few days.

“I expect it will be a bit tougher than the last one. Still a number of outstanding matters related to PMD (possible military dimensions) that Iran refuses to answer,” a Western envoy told Reuters.

An Iranian effort to show rare openness about its disputed nuclear program is doing little to dispel Western suspicions about Tehran’s atomic ambitions, with one Vienna-based envoy dismissing it as just a “charm offensive”.

Another diplomat painted a similar picture, saying Tehran had failed to address the IAEA’s core concerns.

Western nations suspect Iran is trying to use its nuclear program to develop atomic weapons. The Islamic Republic has denied the charge, saying it wants to produce nuclear energy.

The IAEA – tasked with ensuring that nuclear technology is not diverted for military aims – has repeatedly complained about Iran’s lack of cooperation over allegations of military-linked nuclear work

IAEA: Iran reaches breakthrough in suspected nuclear weapons push – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

UN nuclear watchdog report claims Tehran installs self-made, advanced centrifuges that would protect its nuclear facilities from cyber attacks, such as those reportedly perpetrated by the Stuxnet computer worm.

By Yossi Melman

The United Nations nuclear watchdog released a report Saturday stating that Iran is pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, adding that the Islamic Republic has upgraded its nuclear facilities in order to defend them from possible cyber attacks.

According to the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has installed new and improved 2IR as well as 4IR centrifuges, which according to experts, will be immune to cyber attacks that were able to breach the older centrifuges.

	A worker in the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Iran.
	Photo by: AP

The centrifuges have allegedly been installed, the report states, in a fortified underground facility for uranium enrichment near the city of Qom.

Although the number of installed centrifuges is relatively small, Iran has stated that it will continued to install additional ones of the same make in order to enrich its uranium supply to a level of 20%.

Experts emphasize that, according to the report, Iran has been able to achieve a technological breakthrough by producing its own centrifuges, despite the sanctions that have been imposed on the state by the UN Security Council.

The sanctions forbid Iran from enriching uranium, as well as obtaining materials for constructing centrifuges.

It seems, however, that Iran has been able to bypass the embargo, and through its own independent acquisition networks, working in clandestine around the work, acquired rare metals and other materials with which it is now building the carbon fiber blades for the centrifuges.

Compared to the old centrifuges, the new ones will allow Iran to enrich larger amounts of uranium at higher quality in a shorter period of time.

It is important to note that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took pride in such developments over five years ago, although, as it turns out, a rather long period of time was needed in order to implement the plan.

The five-year delay shows that despite Iran’s progress and determination, it is having difficulty advancing its nuclear program at the rate it aspires to.

The IAEA report restates the fact that Iran ignores any Security Council decisions calling on it to halt its uranium enrichment, and that the Islamic Republic only partially cooperates with the organization, while refusing to provide any required documents.

Said documents are needed in order to determine the nature of the state’s nuclear program, specifically to determine whether Iran is secretly developing nuclear weapons alongside its declared program of uranium enrichment.

Furthermore, the report details unnamed intelligence sources, most likely from the West, which claim that Iran is performing a series of actions and experiments, from which it seeks to assemble a nuclear warhead.

The latest report expresses what it called “increasing concerns,” over Iran’s nuclear aspirations, harshening the rhetoric from the organization’s previous reports.

The Stuxnet computer worm, attributed, at least by foreign sources, to the Israeli Mossad, allegedly attacked over 1,000 centrifuges in a uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz.

Iran does allow IAEA inspectors to visit most of its nuclear facilities, including those in Qom and Natanz, although the organization suspects that Iran does have secret facilities that are unknown to inspectors, or are located in military facilities, where the IAEA has no legal authority to visit.

IAEA worries over Iran military nuclear work – Israel News, Ynetnews.

International Atomic Energy Agency expresses ‘increasing concern’ about possible activity in Iran to develop a nuclear payload for a missile in confidential report

Reuters

The IAEA’s information had come from many states and also through its own efforts, and was “broadly consistent and credible in terms of technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved”.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is “increasingly concerned” about possible activity in Iran to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the IAEA said in a confidential report obtained by Reuters on Friday.

The UN nuclear agency’s report said it continued to receive new information adding to such worries.

The developments highlighted in the IAEA’s latest quarterly inspection report are likely to fan Western suspicions about the underlying nature of Iran’s nuclear activity, which Western powers suspect is aimed at developing atom bombs.

It could provide additional arguments for the United States and its European allies to further tighten sanctions pressure on Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers.

The IAEA used “stark language” to show its concerns about possible military links to Iran’s nuclear program, a US-based think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security, said in a commentary.

Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, dismissed what he called “baseless allegations” about Iran’s program.

But he nevertheless described the report as a step in the right direction, saying it showed that Iran had fully cooperated with the IAEA by allowing a senior nuclear inspector full access to atomic sites during a five-day visit last month.

“This new trend of positive cooperation between Iran and the IAEA should continue,” Soltanieh told Reuters.

Western diplomats have dismissed Iran’s attempt to show increased openness about its nuclear work, saying it is still failing to address core concerns about its aims.

 Nuclear missile at work?

In addition to addressing the issue of alleged military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program, the UN agency said Tehran had begun installing machines for higher-grade uranium enrichment in an underground bunker near the holy city of Qom.

Shifting enrichment activity to such a subterranean site could offer greater protection against any attacks by Israel or the United States, which have both said they do not rule out pre-emptive strikes to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.

At a separate research and development site, the Vienna-based IAEA said, Iran had started enriching uranium experimentally with a more advanced model of centrifuge than the erratic, 1970s vintage machine it has been using for years.

“Iran has made progress on the enrichment side,” a diplomat familiar with the IAEA’s investigation said, adding the Islamic state was making a “lot of effort” to get the underground Fordow site up and running.