WarSclerotic

Iran warns over NATO’s anti-missile radar in Turkey | Updated News.

TEHRAN – Iran’s defence minister on Tuesday criticised the pending deployment of a NATO early-warning radar system in Turkey, saying Tehran would not tolerate any aggression against its national interests.

The Turkish and U.S. governments said on Friday the radar system will help spot missile threats coming from outside Europe, including potentially from Iran. The system, provided by the United States, is to become operational later this year.

“The West claims the radar system (in Turkey) is to confront Iranian missiles but they should be aware that we will not tolerate any aggression against our national interests,” Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi was quoted by state TV as saying.

Muslim Turkey, with NATO’s second biggest military, has become a bigger player in the Middle East emboldened by its booming economy and a more Islamic identity, seeking stronger ties with Muslim countries in the Middle East, like Iran.

But Turkey, increasingly critical of Iranian ally Syria, has split with Iran recently over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s bloody crackdown on popular unrest in his country.

Vahidi warned Turkey over the radar system, which Ankara says is not against any specific country. “We regard the presence of America and the West as a troublesome and harmful presence for the Islamic countries,” Vahidi said.

Turkey has also sought stronger ties with Russia, which has said a NATO missile defence system could threaten its security if it develops the capability to down Russian nuclear missiles.

However, Russia’s NATO envoy said a radar system in Turkey would not threaten Russian security.

The United States and its allies are at odds with Iran over its nuclear programme, saying Tehran is trying covertly to develop atomic bombs. Iran denies this, saying it is enriching uranium only for electricity or other civilian purposes.

Israel and the United States have not ruled out military strikes on Iran if diplomatic means fail to stop it obtaining nuclear weapons. Iran refuses to recognise Israel.

Iranian officials have previously announced that the country’s domestically-produced missiles can reach Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. Iran says its response to any military attack will be “painful”.

Moscow unilaterally suspended the delivery of S-300 missiles to Iran after the United States and Israel expressed concern that the Islamic Republic could use the anti-aircraft system to shield its nuclear facilities.

Attrition: Loud And Generally Not Fatal.

September 6, 2011: In late August, Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza fired nearly 200 rockets and mortar rounds into south Israel. What was unusual about this was the large number of factory made 122mm rockets used (against more distant, heavily populated areas.) This resulted in higher than usual casualties, including three deaths. But, as is often the case, most (two out of three) of those deaths were not a direct result of the rockets. Two of the victims died while rushing for a bomb shelter. Both were elderly, tripped and fell, and suffered fatal injuries. The third victim suffered fatal wounds from a rocket. Heart attacks and strokes induced by rocket and mortar attacks are also counted.

The Palestinian rocket attacks had been around for a decade now, but got much worse once Israel pulled out of Gaza in August of 2005. This was a peace gesture that backfired. From 2001 to 2005, about 700 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel. Since the 2005 withdrawal, over 3,400 more rockets were fired into Israel. The rate of firings increased after Hamas took control of Gaza in June, 2007.

Hamas has been bringing in more factory made Iranian and Chinese made BM-21 and BM-12 rockets. Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas currently has in Gaza hundreds of factory-made BM-21 rockets, each with a range of 20-40 kilometers. They also have some shorter range (six kilometers), Russian designed B-12 rockets. These are not smuggled in much, because the locally made Kassam II has about the same range. However, the B-12 is more reliable (more reliable trajectory and fuze, so more are likely to land where aimed and explode.)

The B-12 is a 107mm, 19 kg (42 pound), 84 cm (33 inch) long rocket that is very popular with terrorists. This rocket has a range of about six kilometers and 1.35 kg (three pounds) of explosives in its warhead. Normally fired from a launcher, in salvoes of dozens at a time, when used individually, it is more accurate the closer it is to the target. This 107mm design has been copied by many nations, and is very popular with guerillas and terrorists because of its small size and portability. There is a Chinese BM-12 variant which has a smaller warhead and larger rocket motor. This version is supposed to have a range of about 12 kilometers.

The 122mm BM-21s weigh 68.2 kg (150 pounds) and are 2.9 meters (nine feet) long. These have 20.5 kg (45 pound) warheads, but not much better accuracy than the 107mm model. However, these larger rockets have a maximum range of 20 kilometers. Again, because they are unguided, they are only effective if fired in salvos, or at large targets (like cities, or large military bases or industrial complexes.) There are Egyptian and Chinese variants that have smaller warheads and larger rocket motors, giving them a range of about 40 kilometers.

The rocket attacks from Gaza have been remarkably ineffective, killing only 44 people (half from rockets, the rest by mortars) in ten years. Hamas has had to fire nearly a hundred rockets or mortar shells for each Israel soldier or civilian they have killed. Israeli counterfire killed or wounded a Palestinian for every three Palestinian rockets or mortar shells fired. Israeli fire was much more accurate, with most of the Palestinian casualties being terrorists or others involved in building or firing the rockets and mortars. Hamas has tried to get civilians killed, by storing rockets in residential areas, and firing them from those neighborhoods as well. Although Hamas believes in the concept of “involuntary martyrdom” (getting civilians killed for the cause, even if the victims are not willing), many of its chosen candidates are not eager to die. So civilians stay away from areas where the rockets are launched, and try to conceal the fact that rockets are hidden under their homes.

Meanwhile, up north in Lebanon, Hezbollah have stockpiled over 40,000 factory-made rockets, mainly BM-21s brought in from Iran via Syria. This is three times as many rockets as they had in the Summer of 2006, when over 4,000 rockets were fired into northern Israel, killing about fifty people, most of them civilians. Another 1,500 were wounded and 2,700 suffered from serious stress and anxiety. This was the same casualty pattern experienced in the south.  Over a thousand Lebanese died from Israeli counterattacks. Hezbollah and Hamas plan to launch a joint rocket attack on Israel eventually. The Israelis have been planning more effective countermeasures, which they have not been discussing openly. There is also the option of installing Iron Dome in the north, but that has not been assured yet.

Meanwhile, the only known weapon that can stop the short range rockets is the new Israeli Iron Dome and the older American Centurion, a U.S. Navy Phalanx autocannon designed to knock down anti-ship missiles. Centurion has been successful in shooting down mortar shells and short range rockets in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Israel has not bought any yet.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 6, 2011, 10:39 AM (GMT+02:00)

Gen. Eyal Eisenberg’s wake-up call

After just a month on the job as Home Front Commander, Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday, Sept. 5 of the increasingly peril of a total Middle East war in the wake of the Arab revolts and Israel’s rift with Turkey.

Stressing the long term, Eisenberg warned that the Arab Spring would likely evolve into “a radical Islamic winter” raising the potential for “total war in the Middle East” and the possible use of weapons of mass destruction.

His comments shocked Israel’s policy-makers and defense establishment out of their placidity into issuing a vehement denial of his predictions.
Eisenberg also revealed that Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip had recently acquired a new weapon. The million Israelis battered by 150 missiles in recent weeks had accordingly been advised to take shelter under two roofs – not just one.
debkafile‘s military sources recall that before Gen. Eisenberg made his dire prediction, chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz recently lectured to the IDF’s General Command on the danger of the Arab Spring fast degenerating into “an Arab autumn or winter.”

“There is no need to sow panic,” said the defense minister’s political adviser Amos Gilead in an early morning interview Tuesday, Sept. 6 in which he sharply contradicted the Home Front commander point by point with “the real facts.”
“Israel’s security situation has never been better,” said Gilead. “We have deterrence in the north and the south, the Arab regimes around us are stable” and “all we need do is take care that current situations don’t develop into threats.” Israel has broad leeway for action, he insisted, and plenty of time to prepare for the unexpected. “It is therefore not correct to say that we face total war.”

Asked about the potential use of unconventional weapons in war against Israel, the defense minister’s adviser was a lot less certain. While anxious to refute the Home Front Commander, the defense minister’s adviser still took care to hedge his bets.

“We must behave as though it is a weather forecast,” said Gilead. “We know weather forecasters can’t always be accurate and we are often surprised by unexpected rain and stormy weather. The same applies to national security forecasts.”
debkafile‘s military analysts point out that while Gen. Eisenberg’s outlook is substantially credible for the long term, the events rushing forward in Libya, Syria and Egypt and the uncertainty in Jordan are rapidly shrinking the foreseeable time scale to weeks and making his words a wakeup call, whereas Gilead’s words aim at obfuscating six pertinent facts:

1. The “stable regimes” he referred to are a myth: In Egypt the military rulers are not in control. The latest US intelligence assessments, as the defense ministry’s adviser is no doubt aware, register dismay over the discovery that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi extremist groups are assured of a two-thirds majority in elections for the presidency and parliament, for which the movement for toppling Hosni Mubarak fought so hard. The military rulers’ only hope of staying in power is to stage a second Egyptian revolution to suppress the drive for democracy. For now, they are playing ball with the Islamic extremists, a fact which Mr. Gilead has not revealed.

2.  This pattern applies equally to Israel’s security backyard in Sinai, where debkafile‘s intelligence and counter-terror sources report that the military rulers in Cairo have abandoned any attempt to root out terrorists despite their increasing use of this territory as a jumping-off base.
Not a single smuggling tunnel carrying arms to Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, contrary to reports appearing in the Israeli media.
For three weeks, Israel has maintained troops on high alert on its southern border with Egyptian Sinai and kept main highways closed to civilian traffic, since being forewarned of a large Palestinian Jihad Islami terrorist team from the Gaza Strip lying in wait to strike southern Israel from the Egyptian border. Egyptian security forces have not lifted a finger to interfere with their movements.
The supply of arms to the Gaza Strip has since the Egyptian revolution swelled to an unprecedented volume. It is bringing to Hamas and other terrorist groups quantities of surface missiles of greater range and power even than the Grads, which last month hit targets at a distance of 30 kilometers, such as Beersheba; F-7 anti-air and anti-tank missiles.
Nonetheless, Gilead referred to Israel’s situation as “never better” and lauded its deterrent capacity in the south.
3. He was just as smug about Israeli deterrence in “the north,” including the Lebanese border facing Hizballah.
4. In Syria, circumstances are so volatile that a war situation could ignite in hours.
5. In Jordan, the political and security ground under the throne is far from stable and while domestic unrest has scarcely broken surface, it could erupt at any time.
6. While Libya was never part of the Arab front line against Israel, its relevance to Israeli security is growing. Since NATO launched its operation to unseat Muammar Qaddafi in March, gunrunning from Libya is rife, channeling large quantities of Libyan arms by smuggling routes into the Gaza Strip and Sinai.
7. Iran is fast nearing nuclear weapon capability and missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
One of the greatest threats comes from the new regime the US, Britain, France and NATO are preparing to anoint in Tripoli. Since Qaddafi’s departure, the Libyan capital has fallen under the control of pro-Al Qaeda rebel elements and extremist Salafis. Their Western sponsors have put their trust in these extremists changing their spots and embracing moderation and democracy. This illusion they are liable to replicate in Cairo and Damascus. Israel would then be beset at all hands by avowedly hostile Islamist regimes whose ideology obliges them to wage jihad against the Jewish state.

Eisenberg tried to open Israeli eyes to the real perils around the corner, while Gilead made haste to close them.

Barak downplays likelihood of all-out war with… JPost – Defense.

    The day after OC Home Front Command Maj.-Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned of growing chances for an all-out war, Defense Minister Ehud Barak downplayed the threats to Israel, and said that he did not predict that any of the country’s enemies would initiate a large scale conflict in the near future.

“We do not see a reason for any of our adversaries to initiate a large scale conflict with Israel. I am also convinced that none of our enemies will dare use chemical weapons against Israel, not now and not in the future,” he said on a tour of the border with Syria Tuesday morning. “Our adversaries know very well why they should not even think of using chemical weapons against Israel.”

On Monday night held a conference in Tel Aviv that the ongoing upheaval in the Arab world raised the chances for an all-out war against Israel, as well as the use of weapons of mass destruction.

Turning to Syria, Barak said that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad was nearing its end but that it could take still several months for anything to happen. “On the other side of the border, the Assad family is slaughtering its people throughout Syria in an effort to survive. I believe that it will not help, and that the future of Assad’s regime is clear even if it will take several more months.”

Barak said “even if there will be a new reality or new situation in Syria that will be difficult to predict ahead of time, I hope it will be quiet and there’s no doubt that when his regime falls it will be a heavy blow to the entire radical front that is led by Iran and Hezbollah.”

Barak also weighed in on the current crisis with Turkey and said that even in a time of disagreement it was important that both countries worked together for the sake of the stability of the entire region.