WarSclerotic

Syrian forces besiege central town after report of army

Al Arabiya

Monday, 29 August 2011

Syrian anti-regime protesters carry banners during a rally in Talbiseh, in the central province of Homs, Syria. (File Photo)

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‘Single strike would not halt Iran’s nuclear p… JPost – Defense.

(By all appearances, a “textbook case” of disinformation. Scary. – JW})

    Israel would not be able to halt Iran’s reported quest for atomic weapons with a single strike, a senior Israeli defense official said on Sunday.

The defense official, who in line with Israeli army guidelines declined to be identified, mentioned Iran during a review of the security situation in the Middle East in a briefing to foreign reporters.

“We’re not talking about Iraq or Syria where one strike would derail a program,” the official said, referring to Israel’s 1981 air strike that destroyed Iraq’s atomic reactor and the bombing in 2007 of a Syrian site which the UN atomic agency said was very likely a nuclear reactor.

“With Iran it’s a different project. There is no one silver bullet you can hit and that’s over,” the official said.

Israeli leaders have urged the United States and other Western countries to present Tehran with a credible military threat to back up economic sanctions already in place.

The official said the United States stood a better chance of forcing Iran to change its mind over its nuclear program than Israel.

“With all respect to Israel … the greatest fear of the (Iranian) regime is the USA. There is no question about it.”

Some analysts say the likelihood of an imminent Israeli war with Iran has ebbed, thanks to the perceived success of political pressure on Tehran.

Recent Israeli estimates do not show Iran developing nuclear weapons before 2015.

Israel is widely believed to have the only nuclear arsenal in the Middle East, and Iran has accused it of hypocrisy over the issue.

Turkey president says reforms in Syria would be ‘too little too late’ – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Gul’s statement comes as the Head of the Revolutionary Council of the Syrian Coordination Committees announces that council decided to arm the Syrian revolution; Arab League calls on Syria to stop the bloodshed.

By News Agencies

Turkish President Abdullah Gul said he has lost confidence in Syria, and that the situation has reached a point where changes would be too little too late, Turkish state-run news agency Anatolian reported on Sunday.

Commenting on the situation in Turkey’s neighbor, Gul told Anatolian in an interview: “We are really very sad. Incidents are said to be ‘finished’ and then another 17 people are dead.”

	Turkish President Abdullah Gul during a press conference in Cairo, Egypt, March 3, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

He continued, asking, “how many will it be today? Clearly we have reached a point where anything would be too little too late. We have lost our confidence.”

Earlier this month Gul, who like other Turkish leaders has piled pressure on Syria to end a violent crackdown on protests, appealed to Syrian President Bashar Assad not to leave reforms until it was too late.

Gul’s statement comes as the Head of the Revolutionary Council of the Syrian Coordination Committees, Mohammad Rahhal, announced in remarks published Sunday that the council had decided to arm the Syrian revolution.

Arab foreign ministers also implored Syria to end months of bloodshed “before it’s too late”, and decided to send Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby to Damascus to push for political and economic reforms.

But in a conciliatory message to Damascus, the ministers also said after an extraordinary meeting in Cairo that Syria’s stability was crucial for the Arab World and the whole region.

The Syrian government has sent in troops and tanks to crush five months of street protests demanding President Bashar Assad steps down, killing at least 2,200 protesters according to the United Nations.

Syria says it is working hard to introduce reforms in the Arab country which borders Lebanon, Israel and Iraq but blames militants for the violence.

“The (Arab League) council expresses concern and worry over the dangerous developments on the Syrian arena that had caused thousands of casualties, including dead and wounded,” the Arab League council said in a statement after an expected news conference was cancelled.

“It also stresses the importance of ending bloodshed and to resort to reason before it is too late,” the statement said.

It was the first official Arab League meeting on Syria since the start of the uprising.
Many Arab commentators have criticized the League for its timid reaction to the violence. It spent months only voicing “concern”, suggesting divisions among its members, some of whom are facing their own public protests.

Pro-democracy protests have engulfed most of Syria since mid-March, with the people calling for political and economic reforms as well as the ousting of Syrian president Bashar Assad.

Syrian opposition decides to take up arms against Assad regime – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Leader of Revolutionary Council tell London-based As-Sharq al-Awsat that the only solution to regime’s violence is armed uprising.

By DPA

The leader of the Revolutionary Council of the Syrian Coordination Committees, Mohammad Rahhal, said in remarks published Sunday that the council took the decision to arm the Syrian revolution.

Since mid-March pro-democracy protests have engulfed most of Syria calling for political and economic reforms as well as for the ousting of Syrian president Bashar Assad.

	A Syrian national shouts slogans against President Bashar Assad during a demonstration outside Syria’s embassy in Cairo.
	Photo by: AFP

“We made our decision to arm the revolution which will turn violent very soon because what we are being subjected to today is a global conspiracy that can only be faced by an armed uprising,” he told the London-based As-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper. Circumstances no longer allow dealing peacefully with the regime’s “crimes,” he added. “We will use whatever arms and rocks … We will respond to the people’s calls to arm the revolution,” he said.

“Confronting this monster (the Syrian regime) now requires arms, especially after it has become clear to everyone that the world only supports the Syrian uprising through speeches,” he added. Rahal lashed out some Arab regimes and described them as “cowards.”

Assad’s troops have harshly cracked down on protests against almost five decades of Baath Party rule, killing over 2,200 people and triggering a wide-scale international condemnation.

Iranian FM warns NATO against in… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    TEHRAN – Iran warned NATO on Sunday against any temptation to intervene in Syria, saying that rather than defeating a regime it would be bogged down in a “quagmire” similar to Iraq or Afghanistan.

Syria’s closest ally in the Middle East, Iran has in recent days tempered its strong support for President Bashar Assad with calls for him to respect the “legitimate demands” of his people.

But with the fall of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, aided by NATO bombings, Tehran is concerned at the possible, if unlikely, prospect of something similar happening in Syria.

“Syria is the front-runner in Middle Eastern resistance (to Israel) and NATO cannot intimidate this country with an attack,” Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told the official IRNA news agency.

“If, God forbid, such a thing happened, NATO would drown in a quagmire from which it would never be able to escape…

“If the West should want to follow the same course as they have done in Iraq and Afghanistan they would not realize the desired result.”

The United Nations says 2,200 people have been killed since Assad sent in tanks and troops to crush demonstrations that erupted in March after the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt were toppled by popular protests.

While most neighboring countries have criticized the crackdown, Tehran has explicitly backed Assad, although Salehi said on Saturday that “governments must be responsive to the legitimate demands of (their) people … be it Syria, Yemen or other countries.”

Unsettled Neighbors Leave Israel With Difficult Policy Choices | BlueRidgeNow.com.

Report: Syrian army fights defectors near Da… JPost – Headlines.

AMMAN – Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad fought gun battles overnight near a northeast Damascus suburb with army defectors who had refused to shoot at a pro-democracy protest, residents said on Sunday.

Dozens of soldiers fled into an area of orchards and farmland after pro-Assad forces fired at a large crowd of demonstrators near the suburb of Harasta to prevent them from marching on the capital in defiance of an Interior Ministry order not to demonstrate in Damascus, they said.

“The army has been firing heavy machine guns throughout the night at al-Ghouta (old gardens surrounding Damascus) and they were being met with response from smaller rifles,” a resident of Harasta told Reuters by phone.

Syrian authorities have repeatedly denied any army defections taking place. They have expelled independent media since the uprising against Assad, from Syria’s minority Alawite sect, erupted in Mach. Activists have been reporting increasing defections among the rank-and-file army, mostly drawn from Syria’s Sunni majority but dominated by an Alawite officer core effectively under the command of Assad’s brother Maher.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

(If true, this is the best way to deal with the Sinai problem. – JW)

At home with the Sawarka tribe in Sinai

The Egyptian army is negotiating deals with 13 Sinai Bedouin tribal chiefs for setting up militias to counter alien militant activity in their territories across the peninsula and in the Israeli border region. On offer are new weapons, training and monthly paychecks for undertaking this task. Sinai has a Bedouin population of approximately 100,000 from which, debkafile‘s military sources estimate, a fighting force of 8,000-10,000 can potentially be mustered.

Those sources note that Egypt has turned to the doctrine US Gen. David Petraeus, now CIA Director, applied in Iraq 2006 and 2007 to enlist Iraq’s Sunni tribal leaders in the western region to the war on al Qaeda by providing them with arms, training and regular payments.
The Egyptian army has so far managed to recruit two tribal leaders.

Abu Ahmed, chief of the Sawarkas, agreed this week to organize his men into a fighting force for securing the Egyptian-Israeli border and safeguarding it against terrorist and smuggling incursions from Sinai. Sawarka territory starts at the Philadelphi strip bordering southern Gaza and runs west along the Mediterranean coast of northern Sinai.

The Tiyaha tribe was also persuaded to join the Egyptian effort to purge Sinai of terrorists and smugglers. It controls a large square of land between the Nitzana border crossing south of the Gaza Strip up to central Sinai. This tribe and the Sawarka command the routes from southern Gaza into southern Sinai. They are partners in the arms smuggling tunnels into the Gaza Strip and control the criminal networks smuggling people, drugs and arms into Israel.

Now Cairo wants them to turn to preventing a repeat of the Aug. 18 cross-border terrorist raid by gunmen who killed 8 Israelis on the Eilat highway. debkafile‘s military sources report that the 15-20 terrorists who carried out the Eilat highway raid spent days in Tiyaha territory before they attacked Israel.
On the principle that it takes one to catch one, the Egyptians hope to transform these Bedouin tribes from smugglers and abettors of terrorists into guardians of the law and strong arms for stamping out the criminal networks and cross-border terrorist violence in Sinai.

Their effort may face its first test quite soon: Israel has solid intelligence of a Palestinian Jihad Islami group, which is sponsored by Tehran, heading from Gaza into Sinai for more cross-border raids into Israel. If the new arrangement stands up, one or both of the new Bedouin militias will intercept the attackers in time and hand them over to the Egyptian authorities.

Movement is also reported in another part of northern Sinai, where the US military contingent of the Multinational Force, posted there for the past three decades to secure the Israeli-Egyptian peace accord, has been ordered to enhance its training to meet the situation declining in Sinai since the Egyptian revolution.

An MFO official said the nearly 900 American soldiers were being instructed in force and facility protection amid Al Qaida-aligned attacks in Egypt.

“We have probably added more combat drills,” US Army Col. Eric Evans said. “We’re doing more stuff with weapons and movements. We added a little more intensity.”

Our military sources report, however, that the claims in the Cairo media of an Egyptian plan to demolish the Hamas smuggling tunnels were nothing more than disinformation to mask its ongoing campaign of recruitment among Bedouin tribes. If it takes off, Israel and its military will be confronted with three fundamental issues:
1.  Since the Egyptian-Israeli natural gas pipe was first blown up on February 5, Israel has allowed around 3,000 soldiers to enter Sinai, over and above the quota of limited to lightly-armed border police permitted by military clauses of their peace treaty.
Nonetheless, Saturday, Aug. 27, Egyptian officials made a point of contradicting an assertion by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak the day before that Israel had already agreed to the transfer of several thousands Egyptian troops to Sinai to tighten security there. Cairo is clearly not satisfied and wants to augment their numbers. Israel will have to make up its mind whether to allow Egypt pumping more troops into Sinai. Even if its consent is ad hoc, once there, the extra Egyptian troops are unlikely to leave.

2.  For the first time in Sinai history, the competent authorities will be handing security to its indigenous inhabitants.
Since most of the Sinai tribes have kinship ties with Bedouins on the Israeli side of the border, Israel might have to decide to set up a corresponding Bedouin militia for guard duty on its side. The framework is there. The Israeli army already has a Bedouin reconnaissance battalion operating in the Gaza sector.
3.  Both Egypt and Israel have had enough experience of Sinai Bedouin tribes in at least three wars not to trust their shifting loyalties. Unlike the Iraqi Sunni tribes of al Anbar, their obligations to paymasters whom they regard as aliens or interlopers are interchangeable according to circumstances and the size of imbursement on offer. So if the smugglers, al Qaeda ore Palestinian terrorist organizations top the Egyptian offer, the tribal chiefs won’t say no. Cairo’s plan for combating Sinai terror by proxy is therefore pretty flimsy.

Syrian death toll escalates in Damascus, Idlib as Iran urges Assad to listen.

Al Arabiya

Saturday, 27 August 2011

People protest against President Bashar al-Assad in the city of Amude. (Photo by REUTERS)

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Iran launches production of banned carbon fiber – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Islamic Republic says it has begun domestic production of substance embargoed by UN due to its use in uranium enrichment

AP

Iran has inaugurated its own production of carbon fiber, a material under UN embargo because of its potential use in the country’s controversial nuclear program, the official IRNA news agency reported Saturday.

Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said Iran decided to manufacture the strategic material domestically since it could no longer access carbon fiber on foreign markets because of the international sanctions.

“Because of the restrictions imposed by the enemies, Iran faced challenges in getting access to carbon fiber,” Vahidi was quoted by IRNA as saying.

“That had caused a bottleneck in Iran’s production of advanced and smart defense systems,” Vahidi said. He claimed Iran has mastered the entire process of carbon fiber production.

Iran uses carbon fiber for more advanced centrifuges, which spin uranium gas to produce enriched uranium. Low-enriched uranium can be used as nuclear fuel while highly enriched uranium can be used in a warhead.

4 rounds of sanctions imposed on Iran

The West suspects Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. Iran denies the charge and says its uranium enrichment is only geared toward peaceful activities, such as power generation.

Carbon fiber is extremely strong, light and flexible, with high tolerance for heat. It can be used in aerospace and civil engineering, as well as for military purposes. Its production is extremely complex.

Iran often makes announcements of technical and military advancements but those reports cannot be independently verified.

The United Nations has imposed four rounds of Security Council sanctions over Tehran’s refusal to halt the enrichment. Iran has been producing low-enriched uranium for years and began higher enrichment in February 2010, asserting it needs the higher grade material to produce fuel for a Tehran reactor that makes medical radioisotopes, needed for cancer patients.

Because of the UN ban on sales of carbon fiber to Iran, Tehran has previously had to buy it on foreign markets, presumably through middlemen. It has not disclosed where it obtained previous batches.