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DEBKAfile Special Report August 4, 2011, 10:51 AM (GMT+02:00)

Bodies of Hama citizens in the Orontes

Horrifying images of bodies and limbs floating in the Orontes River in Hama were aired by Syrian state television early Thursday, Aug. 4. Contrary to official claims that they belonged to Syrian soldiers torn to pieces by protesters, debkafile reports they are the victims of Syrian tank fire and ZU-23 automatic anti-aircraft artillery trained on residential buildings and streets in the last 48 hours as the dead pile up in the streets.

Citizens cowering in their homes are throwing the dead out of windows and off roofs into the river.
They are reliving the terrors of the massacre President Bashar Assad’s father inflicted on this city of half-a-million in 1982 which left 30,000 dead.

Our sources report that the Syrian ruler decided to take advantage of three events for unleashing an all-out assault against rebellious Hama:
1.  World attention was riveted on the deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s trial which opened in Cairo Wednesday. As Mubarak was stunningly wheeled into the courtroom on a stretcher and deposited in an iron cage, Syrian tanks thundered into central Hama, indiscriminately shelling buildings and torching them. Their anti-aircraft guns mowed down the rebels who were firing anti-tank weapons from roadblocks.

Buildings suspected of housing snipers at windows or on rooftops were flattened.
Casualty figures cannot be confirmed because the Syrian authorities have cut off all the city’s ground and cell telephone and Internet links. Electrical current and water are also switched off. The dead are believed to be in the hundreds and rising all the time because the thousands of injured cannot be reached for medical care.
The satellite phones in the hands of some of the dissident leaders provide the only source of information on the situation in the embattled city.

2.  The crisis between the Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and the army after the entire top command resigned in a body, which Assad expected would preoccupy all the decision-making levels in Ankara to the exclusion of Syria. He counted on no one in authority venturing to order the Turkish units poised on the Syrian border for weeks to cross into northern Syria and establish a buffer zone there to ease the siege on Hama and other towns.

3. The UN Security Council convening Wednesday night routinely condemned the killing of civilians in Syria and human rights abuses but stopped at approving sanctions or any concrete penalties for the delinquent Assad regime.
Although US UN representative Susan Rice called the statement “an important and strong step,” Bashar Assad was not impressed and the Syrian army’s onslaught on Hama kept going through the night.

Assad was further encouraged by an event in the US Congress. After the Senate Tuesday, Aug. 3 approved the bill raising the national debt ceiling, the lawmakers were scheduled to turn to the crisis in Syria. However, US Ambassador Robert Ford, on hand to brief the senators, saw them hurrying to leave Capitol Hill. Only one senator remained for the briefing.

The Syrian ruler has therefore concluded he can safely ignore international opinion. In the face of US and Western indifference, he can continue to mercilessly slaughter his people without fear of the sort of intervention they undertook in Libya or UN sanctions.

Jerusalem Issue Briefs-Hizbullah’s Predicament in Light of Syria’s Decline.

Shimon Shapira

• Five years after the Second Lebanon War, a war whose results Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah considers a “divine victory,” Hizbullah has currently reached one of its lowest points due to the endangered survival of the Assad regime in Syria, as well as the international tribunal that has demanded the extradition of four Hizbullah members suspected of murdering former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

• Damascus functions as the primary bridge between Iran and Hizbullah in terms of all military and other assistance arriving from Tehran. This comes on top of the direct transfer of rocket and missile weaponry from the Syrian army’s arms depots to Hizbullah’s fighting units.

• Hizbullah has adopted a clear-cut stand in support of Bashar Assad, and therefore Hizbullah flags are being burned in the streets of Syria together with Nasrallah’s portrait. Without Syrian backing, Hizbullah will find it hard to continue dictating political moves in Lebanon.

• Recent signs of Hizbullah’s weakened position include the public revelation of an espionage network run by the CIA of people in important positions within the movement; the open sale of alcoholic beverages in Nabatiye, Hizbullah’s capital in southern Lebanon; and the attempt by the Lebanese government to appoint a security chief for Beirut International Airport from within the Maronite community, contrary to Hizbullah’s wishes.

• In light of all this, Nasrallah is looking for a new pretext to confront Israel, focusing this time on the gas fields that Israel is developing within its maritime economic zone. Nasrallah believes his threats will distract attention from the decline in Hizbullah’s status and the international accusations that it currently faces.

Hassan Nasrallah delivered an address on July 26, 2011, commemorating the fifth anniversary of the Second Lebanon War. He recounted the war’s achievements from his perspective, including Hizbullah’s increased military build-up and its power to deter an Israel that is frantically maneuvering to protect its civilian rear. As a result, Israel has strictly preserved the quiet in southern Lebanon. Nasrallah made it clear that Israeli warnings about “surprises” that it was preparing for Hizbullah in the event of a military confrontation were merely psychological warfare that was doomed to fail. In response to the demands by the international tribunal in The Hague (STL) to extradite Hizbullah members accused of murdering former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri, Nasrallah observed that the accused are examples of the “honorable resistance” and they would not be extradited.¹

Nasrallah used the occasion to make it clear that in addition to acting as the defender of Lebanese security, henceforth he would also protect the Lebanese state’s natural resources. “Lebanon now has a real chance to become a wealthy state since treasures of natural gas and oil lie opposite its shores.” “These treasures do not belong to any sect or party, but constitute the national treasures of the Lebanese state and are valued at billions of dollars. This represents an opportunity to improve living conditions in Lebanon and pay off the Lebanese state’s debts. This is a golden opportunity and we must behave responsibly.” Israel claims about 850 km of maritime waters that contain Lebanese gas and oil and Israel has no rights to this gas and oil, Nasrallah said.

Nasrallah demanded that the Lebanese government act expeditiously to chart Lebanon’s maritime boundaries and commence production at the appropriate time. The Hizbullah leader clarified that this was the Lebanese government’s top national priority. Nasrallah followed this up with threats: “I can say with confidence that Lebanon is capable of defending its oil and gas installations. We will avenge any attack on these installations. We warn Israel against taking any steps whatsoever to steal natural treasures from beneath our territorial waters.”²

Five years after the Second Lebanon War, a war whose results Nasrallah considers both a “veritable miracle” and a “divine victory” that God bestowed on his party, Hizbullah has currently reached one of its lowest points. Nasrallah is confronting a genuine crisis that poses a significant challenge to Hizbullah’s status in Lebanon.

Two major reasons account for this strategic reversal:

• The endangered survival of the Assad regime in Syria.

• The international tribunal in The Hague has demanded the extradition of four Hizbullah members suspected of murdering Prime Minister Hariri. Heading the group is Mustafa Badr al-Din, who replaced Imad Mughniyeh as head of the military and security wing and is part of the Hizbullah leadership.

The threat to the Assad regime’s survival is having a direct impact on Hizbullah’s strategic position in both the internal Lebanese arena and vis-à-vis Israel. It is true that Iran gave birth to Hizbullah as a small militia during the era of Hafez Assad, but during the reign of Bashar Assad it matured and attained the dimensions of a state in social, economic, and military terms, one that threatens the very existence of the Lebanese state. Syria represents the womb in which Hizbullah was born and it served as the militia’s adoptive mother that suckled and nurtured it, together with Iran, since its establishment.

Damascus functions as the primary bridge between Iran and Hizbullah in terms of all military and other assistance arriving from Tehran. This comes on top of the direct transfer of rocket and missile weaponry from the Syrian army’s arms depots to Hizbullah’s fighting units. Hizbullah has adopted a clear-cut stand in support of Bashar Assad, and therefore Hizbullah flags are being burned in the streets of Syria together with Nasrallah’s portrait. The images of Saladin and Gamal Abd el-Nasser that were once displayed together with that of Nasrallah have been replaced by derogatory slogans against the Shiite leader who is offering support to the Alawite leader in the mass slaughter in Syria. It is now clear to Hizbullah that without Syrian backing it will find it hard to continue dictating political moves in Lebanon. The removal of Hizbullah missiles from the Syrian interior and their recent transfer to the Bekaa Valley provides the most tangible sign that Hizbullah is apprehensive about the Assad regime’s future.

At the same time, Hizbullah is being forced to contend with the demands of the International Tribunal at The Hague (STL) to extradite the murderers of Prime Minister Hariri, a demand that enjoys the support of the international community. Nasrallah’s blatant refusal to extradite the “patriotic mujahedin,” “neither in 30 days nor in 30 years,” carries with it the potential of touching off an internal Lebanese conflagration. Powerful parties in Lebanon are just itching for Hizbullah to weaken as a result of the Assad regime’s fall in Syria and intensified international pressures on Nasrallah in order to erode Hizbullah’s political standing and subsequently Hizbullah’s military power as well.

The first signs of Hizbullah’s weakened position have recently appeared:

• In internal meetings that Nasrallah held with Hizbullah activists, he spoke frankly about the difficult circumstances in which Hizbullah finds itself – the most serious that the movement has experienced since the 1990s. Its main problems include the public revelation of an espionage network run by the CIA of people in important positions within the movement, including Mahmoud al-Haj (“Abu Turab”), the man responsible for training Hizbullah’s military forces, and Mohammed Atwe, responsible for supervision and inspection of the armed forces. Likewise, an additional person, who only had his initials A.B. publicized, turns out to be none other than Ahmed Badr al-Din, who holds no official Hizbullah position but is related to Mustafa Badr al-Din and served as a money-launderer for Hizbullah.³
• In Nabatiye, Hizbullah’s capital in southern Lebanon, the total prohibition imposed by Hizbullah on the sale of alcoholic beverages is being violated and one can find alcoholic beverages on sale. Previously, Hizbullah hastened to forcibly shut down any store that violated this prohibition, but now it is hesitating to act. Hizbullah vented its humiliation and anger on the village of Houla in south Lebanon, where Hizbullah activists attacked a store selling alcohol. However, for the first time, they encountered opposition by leftist elements and members of the Communist Party who defended the sale of alcohol – an incident that is a most definite rarity in recent decades and ever since the beginning of the 1980s.⁴
• An additional event that could cloud Hizbullah’s prospects is the attempt by the Lebanese government to appoint a security chief with the rank of Brigadier General for Beirut International Airport from within the Maronite Christian community, contrary to Hizbullah’s wishes. It may be recalled that in 2008 Hizbullah set Beirut ablaze and took over regions that it had not previously controlled in response to the attempted removal of a Shiite officer loyal to Hizbullah from the same position.⁵

In light of all this, it would appear that Nasrallah is looking for a new pretext to confront Israel in order to make it clear that jihad – the movement’s raison d’etre – is alive and well and that Hizbullah constitutes the spearhead of the struggle against Israel. The pretext this time is the gas fields that Israel has discovered and is developing in the framework of its maritime economic zone. Nasrallah is threatening a renewed conflagration and believes that his threats will distract attention from the decline in Hizbullah’s status and the international accusations that it currently faces. Nasrallah has already argued in the past that had he anticipated the Israeli response, he would have refrained from kidnapping the Israeli soldiers in 2006, the event that triggered the Second Lebanese War. One can only hope that five years after this war, Nasrallah still remembers his grievous mistake.

*     *     *

Notes

1. Moqawama.org, July 26, 2011.

2. Ibid.

3. Majalat Aleman, July 16, 2011; al-Shiraa, July 15, 2011.

4. Hanin Ghaddar, “Hizbollah Is Bleeding Alone,” Now Lebanon, July 25, 2011.

5. Naharnet.com, July 25, 2011.

*     *     *

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira is a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

With Syria in tailspin, Lebanon said under control of Iran, Hizbullah.

NICOSIA — The Lebanese government, amid the decline of its Syrian mentor, has lost control over much of the country.

Opposition sources said the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has lost control over the military and security services. They said the pro-Hizbullah government has watched how Iran and Hizbullah have taken virtual command over units in such areas as southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and the north.

“There are commanders in charge of key border areas who have little contact let alone take orders from the General Staff,” an opposition source said.

On Aug. 1, the U.S.-trained Lebanese Army opened fire on an Israel Army patrol along the border town of Rajar. The Israelis returned fire and a Lebanese soldier was injured in the second such incident in a year. The United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon determined that the Israelis had not crossed in Lebanon.

The sources, who include opposition parliamentarians, said neither Mikati, President Michel Suleiman nor Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwaji has control over much of the military. They said Hizbullah now dominates all military forces along the border regions with Israel and Syria.

“The Israeli enemy tried again to revert back to attacks and provocations in the Wazani region, but you stood guard,” Suleiman, a former chief of staff, told Lebanese soldiers.

Kahwaji was also said to have lost control over Sunni areas of Lebanon. The sources pointed to the lack of communications and coordination in wake of the latest bombing of a UNIFIL convoy near Sidon on July 26. Five French officers were wounded in the attack, with the Lebanese authorities unable to make arrests or identify the suspected bombers.

“The culprits for this attack and the previous attack on the Italians on May 27 must be found and detained and tried,” UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Michael Williams, said on Aug. 2.

The sources said they expect attacks on Israel and UNIFIL to increase over the next few weeks. They said the decline of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has left a power vacuum filled by Iran and Hizbullah.

“It [Hizbullah] is exercising hegemony over the state’s strategic decisions,” Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said. “Hizbullah is not even willing to let its allies take part in these decisions.”

Iran centrifuge news increases risk – By Cliff Kupchan | The Call.

By Cliff Kupchan

News that Tehran is reportedly planning to deploy faster centrifuges at a hardened site and intends to triple production of highly enriched uranium increases somewhat the risk of Israeli strikes, if Iran can follow through. If these steps are successfully implemented, Iran would have the ability to make a nuclear weapon more quickly. However, Tehran frequently overstates its capabilities, and the degree of looming threat is uncertain. Observers will need to watch future International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) statements carefully.

If Iran places both advanced generation machines and a large stockpile of 19.75 percent uranium at the hardened Fordo site near Qom, the threat of dash to a bomb would significantly increase. Even using very conservative assumptions, Iran could make a bomb in 12-18 months, depending on how many advanced machines are deployed, their efficiency, and other factors. The possibility that Fordo may not be vulnerable to air strikes increases the chance an Iranian breakout could succeed.

There are doubts, however. First, Iran’s ability to make and operate advanced machines that work well, individually and in cascades, is uncertain. Second, Iran may not have enough component material to make large numbers of advanced machines.

Several explanations are possible for why Iran is, rhetorically at least, again emphasizing its nuclear program. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may now feel the need to boost the regime’s domestic legitimacy and international influence, for two reasons. The Iranian regime is concerned about the effect of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s possible fall on its regional clout, and may seek to augment that clout through progress on the nuclear program. In addition, Khamenei faces the prospect of a low turnout from a disaffected population at parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012 and 2013, and could be seeking to preempt a loss of legitimacy through nuclear advances. Finally, Iran may have made at least enough progress on advanced centrifuges to deploy two cascades and reap the political benefits of doing so.

The central question is how quickly Iran is able to move forward. Several signposts in quarterly IAEA reports will be telling. The reports will reveal how quickly Iran deploys the two test cascades and then how quickly, in what quantity, and with what efficiency Tehran deploys these machines at Fordo. Finally, these documents will provide information about how much 19.75% material is being accumulated.

The chance of Israeli strikes remains now very low for now, as Israel has been pleased with the effect of covert action and sanctions. But Israeli officials have revealed increasing concern over these issues. Progress by Iran on the above agenda will increase the chance of strikes; movement of advanced centrifuges into Fordo would be especially provocative. Unless Israel believes it could successfully attack the hardened site, it will face a very tough decision point. This more dangerous scenario would very likely rattle markets.

Cliff Kupchan is a director with Eurasia Group’s Middle East practice

Rocket Hits South of Ashkelon – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Hamas Kassam Launcher

Arutz Sheva: Wikimedia Commons photo

Terrorists in Hamas-controlled Gaza attacked with a rocket south of Ashkelon Wednesday morning as missiles strikes increase. Twenty rocket and missile explosions were aimed at Israeli civilians in July, four times the number in the previous month.

August started out with a continuing escalation in violence from Gaza, and a Bedouin woman was lightly wounded by shrapnel on Monday after a missile exploded near a Negev cemetery.

Israel generally has retaliated after every terrorist attack, usually striking tunnels used by terrorists as well as rocket manufacturing facilities and weapons storehouses. The IDF has not carried out pre-emptive strikes unless it identifies a “ticking bomb,” such as a terrorist cell preparing to launch rockets.

Hamas several times has announced a “ceasefire” or “calm” both before and after the Operation Cast Lead counterterrorist campaign, which lasted for three weeks until mid-January 2009.

The last fatality from the attacks was a 16-year-old who was killed in April when terrorists fired a laser-guided rocket at a school bus, which a few minutes earlier had unloaded most of the children rising home.

The Kornet rocket was made in Russia and smuggled into Gaza from Iran. Israel maintains a maritime embargo on Gaza to prevent arms smuggling, but smuggling tunnels operate freely from Egypt. The new provisional military government has largely lost control of the Sinai area, south of Gaza, to Bedouin tribes and terrorist-linked cells.

Syrian tanks occupy main Hama square, shell city-residents and besiege protest hubs.

Al Arabiya

Wednesday, 03 August 2011

Military tanks are seen in the Jabal Al-Zawya area of Idlib. (File Photo)

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MK Mofaz: Reserves likely to be mobilized in September – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Former IDF chief says IDF’s answer to coming September’s potential threats may include calling in the Reserves

Ynet

Former IDF chief MK Shaul Mofaz (Kadima) said Tuesday that it is highly likely the military will mobilize Reserve forces – to some extent – in September, either ahead or pursuant to the Palestinian Authority’s unilateral UN bid for statehood.

“We have to look the public in the eye and tell the truth. September can potentially turn into a violent, painful event, with unclear results,” Mofaz told Army Radio.

The former military chief said that he believes the IDF is gearing for a wide spectrum of scenarios, including some that call for Reserve mobilization: “The military is getting ready… I believe that the (regional) unrest won’t skip the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.”

Mofaz voiced his concerns over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “lacking assessment of the reality being formed and his job at the prime minister… The social omissions and the political ones – Netanyahu hasn’t negotiated with the Palestinian for two and a half years – will collide in the coming months.

“Alll Netanyahu had to do was say ‘yes’ to Obama, but he lacks the courage and political leadership. He is afraid of Lieberman, of his coalition and of his own party, so he shies away from every chance of talking to the Palestinians,” Mofaz concluded.

The Enemy of Iran’s Enemy – By Barbara Slavin | Foreign Policy.

Al Qaeda’s tangled history with the Islamic Republic.

BY BARBARA SLAVIN | AUGUST 1, 2011

Despite the alarmist headlines, no one should have been shocked by last week’s U.S. Treasury Department designation of a Syrian based in Iran as a conduit for sending money and personnel to al Qaeda.

Iran has had links to members of what became known as al Qaeda since the early 1990s, when both had a presence in Sudan. What many may not know is that the United States missed several opportunities to divide the two and gain custody of senior al Qaeda figures and relatives of Osama bin Laden.

Al Qaeda, with its militant Sunni ideology that despises Shiites as worse than apostates, is hardly a natural ally for the world’s only Shiite theocracy. Iranian officials indignantly denied the Treasury Department’s allegations; one official, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that Iran opposes al Qaeda adherents in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Iran’s leaders, however, share al Qaeda’s hatred of the United States and Israel, and both have a long history of grievances against the West.

Their tactical ties were forged in Khartoum, when the Sudanese capital was a virtual resort for Islamist militants and agents of rogue states, including bin Laden; members of Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese protégé; and Iran’s Quds Force, the external arm of the Revolutionary Guards. According to the 9/11 Commission, in the 1990s the Iranians and al Qaeda reached an “informal agreement to cooperate in providing support — even if only training — for actions carried out primarily against Israel and the United States. Not long afterward, senior al Qaeda operatives and trainers traveled to Iran to receive training in explosives.”

Al Qaeda recruits also went to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, where they “showed particular interest in learning how to use truck bombs” from Hezbollah trainers, the report found. The commission goes on to say that eight of the 10 Arab “muscle hijackers” who took control of the planes on 9/11 crossed Iran en route to Afghanistan between October 2000 and February 2001. The commission, however, “found no evidence that Iran or Hezbollah was aware of the planning for what later became the 9/11 attack.”

That attack provoked a sympathetic response in Iran, in contrast with other Middle Eastern countries. The Iranian government, then under President Mohammad Khatami, saw an opportunity to improve relations with the United States and defeat a shared enemy — al Qaeda’s hosts, the Taliban, with which Iran had nearly gone to war in 1998. Iran’s Quds Force indirectly helped U.S. forces topple the Taliban in 2001 by working with Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance. Iranian security officials also caught and deported scores of al Qaeda members who fled into Iran from Afghanistan. Iran, however, held on to several of bin Laden’s children and senior figures, including Saif al-Adel, then al Qaeda’s No. 3. Iranian officials said they were under “hotel arrest.”

Roberto Toscano, Italy’s ambassador in Iran from 2003 to 2008, said an Iranian diplomat told him that Tehran hoped to use the al Qaeda figures as bargaining chips and also as insurance to prevent al Qaeda from attacking targets in Iran. Tehran’s main hope, Toscano told me in an email, was that it could trade the detainees for leaders of the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), an anti-Iranian regime group that Saddam Hussein had harbored and that had several thousand adherents at a base in Iraq called Camp Ashraf. After the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran offered to swap its al Qaeda “guests” for MEK leaders. George W. Bush’s administration refused, according to then Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, because Pentagon hawks Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith wanted to retain MEK members as possible agents against Iran. Around the same time, Washington also rejected an Iranian offer for comprehensive negotiations that included on its agenda “decisive action against any terrorists (above all Al Qaida) on Iranian territory.”

The MEK, on the State Department’s list of terrorist organizations since 1997, is a Marxist-Islamist group that attacked Americans in Iran before the 1979 revolution and Iranian officials afterward. It has scant support within Iran because it sided with Iraq during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. Although Barack Obama’s administration has so far kept the MEK on the terrorist list — despite lobbying by a number of former senior U.S. officials paid to speak on the group’s behalf — Iran has not forgiven Washington for going back on a commitment to declare the MEK members in Iraq as enemy combatants. Instead, the United States put Camp Ashraf’s inhabitants under its protection. Responsibility for them passed to Iraq as part of the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement. U.S. diplomats have been trying to arrange new homes for camp residents, but have been frustrated because the MEK refuses to allow its members to accept refugee status.

In light of this tangled history — as well as mounting U.S. economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program — it is hardly surprising that Iran would not sever all ties to al Qaeda. Iran lives in a dangerous neighborhood where the enemy of my enemy can be a tool, if not a friend. Even though it failed to swap the detainees for MEK leaders, Iran appears to have used its al Qaeda chips to obtain the release in March 2010 of an Iranian diplomat kidnapped 15 months earlier in Pakistan by Sunni jihadists. According to the Associated Press, Iran agreed to give more freedom of movement to Adel, allowing him to travel from Iran to Pakistan and resume contacts with al Qaeda leaders based there. Around the same time, the Iranians also allowed one of bin Laden’s daughters, Iman, to join her mother in Damascus.

In announcing the designation on July 28, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen said, “By exposing Iran’s secret deal with al Qaeda allowing it to funnel funds and operatives through its territory, we are illuminating yet another aspect of Iran’s unmatched support for terrorism.”

Intelligence experts say it’s quite possible that al Qaeda is moving money and personnel between the Middle East and Afghanistan and Pakistan through Iran, but that does not amount to a formal alliance and the Obama administration should not overstate the links.

“When the undersecretary talked about a ‘secret deal,’ that was probably an inappropriate phrase,” said Paul Pillar, a retired veteran CIA analyst who served as national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia under the Bush administration. He called this a “tendentious way” of describing al Qaeda-Iran ties.

The use of such language — besides providing grist for headline writers — may reflect U.S. frustration at its inability to resolve the nuclear issue as well as anger at recent attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq that Washington has blamed on militants armed with Iranian weapons. The United States is also seeking to cut off funding for al Qaeda from Kuwait and Qatar. Two of the alleged al Qaeda members designated by the Treasury Department last week are based in Qatar and one is in Kuwait.

Assuming the White House approved Cohen’s comments, Pillar said it could have also meant to placate Iran hawks who have been lobbying for more aggressive action, including military attacks. With a presidential election approaching, “the administration doesn’t want to be seen as soft on Iran,” Pillar said.

There is, however, a danger that such rhetoric will only give new ammunition to the hawks and increase pressure on the administration to take military action — or risk looking weak if it does not. After all, the Bush administration made the case for war in Iraq using the same three issues Obama has raised against Iran — weapons of mass destruction, support for terrorism, and abuse of human rights.

“You get enough of the mood music out there and it can’t help but affect some people,” Pillar warned. “Even if you think you are buying time [for a diplomatic solution], it can come back to haunt you later.”

‘Der Spiegel’: Mossad behind Iran scient… JPost – International.

    Der Spiegel reported on Monday that the Mossad was behind the assassination of Darioush Rezaie, an Iranian nuclear scientist who was murdered on July 23.

The German news magazine quoted an unnamed Israeli intelligence source as saying that the move was the first act of the new head of the Mossad, Tamir Pardo.

Rezaie, who was fatally shot by a motorcyclist, is the fourth known Iranian nuclear scientist to be killed since 2010. Der Spiegel noted that each of the other three, Masood Ali Mohammadi (January 2010), Majid Schahriari and Feridun Abbasi (November 2010), was killed by either motorcycle riding gunmen or motorcycle bombs.

An International Atomic Energy Agency investigation showed that Rezaie held a Ph.D. in physics and was working on developing a nuclear switch used for detonating nuclear weapons, according to the Der Spiegel report.

The German magazine wrote that while Iran accuses the United States and Israel of hiring hitmen to carry out various attacks inside Iran, Washington denies any involvement and Israel is silently ambiguous. However, a purported smile on the face of Defense Minister Ehud Barak when refusing to speculate on the killing gave the Der Spiegel reporter who wrote the story reason to believe he was hiding something.

Although Israel maintains a strict policy of ambiguity when it comes to Mossad operations, the Israeli spy agency was widely believed to have been involved in creating and planting the Stuxnet computer virus, which crippled Iranian nuclear research facilities during the summer of 2010.

According to the Der Spiegel article, the Mossad and Israel Air Force (IAF) are competing for both the privilege and the funding to attack the Iranian nuclear program. Each claims that the other is incapable of effectively delaying, let alone destroying Iran’s ability to attain nuclear weapons.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report August 1, 2011, 8:41 AM (GMT+02:00)

Bashad Assad blasts dissident city of Hama

Early Monday Aug. 1, undeterred by international condemnation, President Bashar Assad broadened his bloody tank assault to all of northern Syria – a 20,000 square kilometer area almost the size of Israel. He is now waging war on the 3.5 million inhabitants of Hama, Deir al-Zour, Homs, Idlib and Ar-Raqqah, after inflicting a one-day death toll Sunday of 150 – 120 in Hama, 30 in Deir el-Zur and more than 1,000 injured.
Syrian armored forces shooting at random are now running into heavy resistance: Awaiting them are anti-tank traps and fortified barriers manned by protesters armed with heavy machine guns.

In Hama Sunday, the 4th and 11th Syrian army divisions kept to the southern and western districts and were still fighting their way to the barricaded center early Monday. debkafile‘s military sources estimate it will take the Syrian army at least ten more days to conquer this key town of a million inhabitants – provided the army holds up.
However, signs of extensive disintegration emerged Sunday night and early Monday: A Syrian armored division ordered to set out for Damascus from its base in Qatana southwest of the capital broke up when most of its officers and men deserted, taking with them their armored vehicles and weapons.
This was the first time in the five-month conflict that an entire armored column has fallen back from an operational mission.
Our military sources report urgent White House requests Sunday night to Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to send into northern Syria the Turkish units held ready on the border for two months to establish a protected zone for refugees and the growing number of Syrian army deserters seeking asylum. Operational plans for this incursion had been in place for some weeks, ready for execution as soon Assad launched a general offensive against the opposition.
The plan is now up in the air, placed in doubt by the grave crisis between the prime minister and the Turkish command, which peaked last Thursday (July 28) when the entire Turkish high command, including the chief of staff resigned in a body.
This development certainly helped Assad decide now on his crushing offensive in northern Syria.
Monday night, his crackdown is the subject of an urgent UN Security Council session called by Germany.
debkafile reported Sunday:

No Arab ruler before him has gone to the bloody lengths Syrian President Bashar Assad went Sunday, July 31, on the eve of Ramadan on Aug. 1, to snuff out the five month-long protest against his regime. Before dawn, troops and tanks, indiscriminately blasting city streets with cannon, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns, stormed the two most active centers of resistance. By evening, the 4th division had killed 130 people and left 1,000 injured in Hama in the north, while the 7th division had left 20 dead and more than 100 injured in Deir al-Zour. Hundreds were arrested.

US President Barack Obama said he is appalled by the Syrian government’s use of violence and brutality against its own people. While Obama still avoided calling on Assad to step down,  an official at the US embassy in Damascus said the Syrian military’s deadly attack on the flashpoint protest city of Hama on Sunday amounted to “full-on warfare” and was a “last act of utter desperation”.

JJ Harder, the press attache at the embassy, told the BBC World Service that “there is one big armed gang in Syria, and it’s named the Syrian government.” He said: “I think we can safely say it’s full-on warfare by the Syrian government on its own people.”
Syrian troops encountered armed resistance in both towns, where in the last month both had formed local committees and erected makeshift anti-tank barriers. Since many army deserters, including officers, have joined the protesters in facing the troops, and there is no shortage of arms, the battles are not expected to die down before the end of the week.

debkafile‘s intelligence sources report that Assad chose to turn his army loose on the two cities with no holds barred to pre-empt what he regards as his Ramadan test: He had hoped to avert the nightly processions from the mosques after the Taraweeh prayer marking the end of each day’s fasting and win a 30-day lull in the bloody clashes. The regime had pinned its hopes on calming the charged anti-regime climate in the country on a huge public event in Aleppo Thursday July 29, complete with Syria’s top performing artists, as a show of self-assurance.
This did not work – any more than an appeal from the authorities to the 30 most senior clerics for help to keep the crowds off the streets. They were asked to issue a collective fatwa (religious edict) excusing the faithful from attending the mosques for Taraweeh and permitting them to recite the prayer at home – in consideration of the exceptionally hot summer weather.
Twenty-nine clerics declined to cooperate with this transparent tactic for suppressing the protest. The thirtieth, Sheikh Al Bouti, Syria’s foremost scholar, world Muslim eminence and head of the Theology Department in the faculty of Islamic Law at Damascus University, agreed to issue the dispensation.
Its circulation was widely accompanied by the burning of his books on Islamic law in one town after another.
When Assad realized there was no way he could use Ramadan for a respite from the revolt against his regime, he turned to a horrendous outburst of violence.