WarSclerotic

Worries grow over fate of Syrian chemical … JPost – Middle East.

    Five months into the Syrian uprising, fissures continue to grow within Bashar Assad’s once rock-solid police state. Sunnis are battling pro-regime Alawites, army defections are on the rise and the Damascus government looks vulnerable as ever. As the prospect of internecine warfare looms, observers are increasingly worried that Syria’s massive chemical weapons could fall into the wrong hands, to devastating effect.

The Washington Post reported Monday that some weapons experts believe Syria to have the world’s largest chemical stockpile, much of it acquired from the Soviet Union starting in the 1970s.

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States, Russia and many other countries have gradually eliminated their chemical-weapons arsenals. Syria, however, was one of seven states that refused to ratify the 1993 UN Chemical Weapons Convention and proceeded to expand and develop its own stockpile.

Israel has signed but not ratified the UN treaty, and a 1993 US Congressional report described the country as generally believed to have undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities.

The newspaper cited Central Intelligence Agency estimates that Damascus has a large store of mustard-gas and sarin-based warheads (sarin is a lethal nerve agent even in minute quantities) and is developing VX, an even deadlier chemical that resists breaking down in the environment. A 2009 CIA report found Syria has had a chemical weapons program “for many years and already has a stockpile of CW agents, which can be delivered by aircraft, ballistic missiles and artillery rockets.”

“We are very concerned about the status of Syria’s WMD, including chemical weapons,” Israel’s ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, told the Wall Street Journal this week. “Together with the US administration, we are watching this situation very carefully.”

Israeli officials have expressed concern over the instability that could follow the ouster of the Assad regime, which for four decades kept a quiet border on the Golan Heights even as it armed Lebanese and Palestinian terrorist groups. According to Oren, however, Israel is not necessarily opposed to seeing Assad leave the international stage. “We see a lot of opportunity emerging from the end of the Assad regime,” he said.

Assad is not believed to have transferred chemical weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah, radical groups to which it serves as a bridge for their main sponsor Iran. But analysts said the fate of those weapons could be unclear should the Assad regime be weakened or Syria plunged into full-scale civil war.

“If anti-Assad insurgents take up arms, the chemical sites, as symbols of the regime’s authority, could become strategic targets,”  Leonard Spector, a Washington-based nonproliferation expert, wrote last week in a ForeignPolicy.com article entitled “Assad’s Chemical Romance.”

“This could lead to disastrous outcomes, including confiscation of the chemical weapons by a radical new national government or sale of the weapons as war booty to organized nonstate actors or criminal groups,” he wrote, noting that the main weapons storehouses – in Damascus, Hama, Latakia and Aleppo – are all in areas that have seen some degree of popular unrest. Hama and Latakia have been the scenes of particularly heavy fighting between the army and insurgents, and both have come under intense artillery barrages.

Spector wrote that Syria’s successor regime could be as aggressive and destabilizing as any radical group: “[L]et’s imagine that Assad is eventually removed: What leaders would gain control of these weapons after he departed? Saudi-backed Sunni groups? Iranian-backed Shiite organizations? Whoever they might be, it is unclear that the newcomers would follow the Assads’ cautious-use doctrine and refusal to share chemical weapons with nonstate groups, or that the new leaders would be able to maintain strict security measures at the chemical sites.”

Moreover, an existential threat to the Assad regime could cause it to abandon its previous policy of restraint regarding its chemical weapons. “It is not a huge leap from attacking civilians with tank fire, machine guns, and naval artillery to deploying poison gas, and the shock effect and sense of dread engendered by even limited use could quash a citywide uprising within an hour,” he wrote.

Should the uprising succeed in unseating Assad, Spector wrote, the international community needs to set clear criteria for ensuring the remaining stockpiles’ safe handling. “If a new government replaces Assad – or even if different groups compete for international recognition – a US-led coalition, including Turkey and the leading Arab states, should demand as a condition of support that the weapons immediately be placed under control of international monitors,” he wrote. “Hopefully, Syria’s new leaders will have genuine legitimacy and will not need to prop up their credibility at home by clinging to these barbaric weapons.

Someone wants a war in the Middle East – KansasCity.com.

Something extremely important and exceedingly dangerous is unfolding in a most explosive part of the globe, but it is receiving only minimal attention by the media and by world leaders. An outbreak of violence in Southern Israel, Gaza, and along the Egyptian border, triggered by a recent attack against Israelis civilians, could easily escalate into much more serious fighting.

A new war between Israelis and Palestinians right now would have immediate, horrific repercussions for the people who live there. It would also have potentially disastrous consequences for those who want freedom and democracy in the Middle East, as well as those in the West who would like to see a moderate Arab world emerge from the regional wave of popular uprisings.

It began on Aug. 18, when an attack against an Israeli passenger bus – terrorism by any definition – killed eight Israelis, four of them members of the same family.

Israel immediately shot back, killing the head of a group called the Palestinian Popular Resistance Committees (PRC). The attack left dead four PRC members and a young boy who was with them. Since then, Palestinians have fired more than 160 rockets into Israeli cities. At least one Palestinian missile landed in Egypt, injuring an Egyptian woman. Israel has fired back, targeting other militant leaders. More civilians have died on both sides. As always, Palestinians are aiming – and occasionally hitting – civilian targets. Israelis are aiming at militant targets, but innocent civilians are also getting killed by Israeli fire.

A truce accepted by Israel and Hamas has not held. With every missile launched from Gaza, with hundreds of thousands of anxious Israelis rushing into shelters, there is more pressure on Israel to launch a larger offensive. Somebody clearly wants to provoke a war between Israelis and Palestinians.

The key question is: Who would benefit from war at this moment? The answer is long and troubling.

The list of potential beneficiaries of a Palestinian-Israeli war includes Syria’s Bashar Assad, the Iranian regime, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah in Lebanon, possibly Hamas in Gaza, and certainly radical Islamists all over the Arab world. The list of losers from a new war includes, first of all, the civilian populations of Israel and Gaza. Other losers would include those fighting to overthrow the regime in Syria, along with pro-democracy forces all over the Middle East and their supporters in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.

The last thing Israel wants now is another war. Israel is worried about relations with Egypt, about Palestinian plans for a unilateral declaration of statehood at the United Nations, and about the turmoil in surrounding countries. It would have much to lose and little to gain in a major conflict.

Relations with Egypt reached a new low in the aftermath of the bus attack, when Israeli forces pursuing the militants – some of whom were wearing Egyptian army uniforms – apparently killed several Egyptian policemen. Israel, eager to preserve ties, has offered to carry out a joint investigation with Cairo.

As Egypt moves through its political transition, the views of the “street” carry much more weight. In case of war, the inevitable images of Israeli bombs slamming into Gaza would create pressure for authorities to allow Egyptian volunteers to fight alongside Palestinians. It is likely that Hezbollah would also attack from Lebanon, and Syria, too, would be tempted to join in.

For Egypt’s Islamic Brotherhood and the even more radical political forces in the country, an Israeli-Palestinian war would come as a fantastic gift, especially as the country gears up for elections.

An Egyptian newspaper reports that some of the men who launched the Aug. 18 attacks were, in fact, Egyptian citizens.

Syria’s dictator would also welcome a war. The pictures of the fighting would grab the world’s attention by the lapels and leave the Syrian opposition, whose members Assad is slaughtering, weak and forgotten. Similarly, Iran and Hezbollah, whose key ally in Damascus is in danger, would rejoice in a new war

For Hamas, a war would be a double-edged sword. A massive Israeli onslaught in Gaza could be devastating, but it would also rally support for its side and away from the rival Fatah. Hamas may prefer to avoid the risk.

The world’s media tend to ignore or minimize the important Palestinian rockets crashing on Israeli cities, even when they kill civilians, as the recent ones have done. But this is a critical story. We should all pay close attention. World leaders should intensify efforts to bring an end to the violence, particularly at this pivotal moment in history.

Iran denies Revolutionary Guard helping Syria suppress protests – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

European Union claims Revolutionary Guard provided Syrian President Bashar Assad with technical help, equipment and other support.

By DPA

Tehran on Monday rejected as baseless accusations by the European Union over the involvement of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in suppressing protests in Syria.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast described the EU allegations as lies lacking any evidence.

The EU last week said the Revolutionary Guards’ Al-Qods force provided Syrian President Bashar Assad with technical help, equipment and other support in violently suppressing the country’s unrest and announced sanctions against the guards.

	Members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
	Photo by: AP

Mehmanparast said the Syrian government and people were mature enough to handle their own affairs and settle their problems with no need for any interference from the EU.

Iran has backed several of the anti-government protests during the Arab Spring, saying the voice of the people “echoes the Islamic reawakening” and should be heard but has stayed silent over the uprisings in its regional ally Syria.

Iran has cautiously called on the Syrian government to accept the reforms demanded by its people but has warned against foreign interference in Syria and what it called the grave regional and international impact of trying to topple Assad.

“We recommend to the regional states to acknowledge their people’s will for freedom and justice,” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said last week. “… The Syrian government and people should be careful and implement the necessary reforms by themselves.”

Syria has historically supported Tehran’s anti-Israel stance, and this support could be weakened by a political change in Damascus.
Damascus has also supported the Shiite Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, a firm ally of Tehran and an equally firm enemy of Israel.

Syrian forces besiege central town after report of army

Al Arabiya

Monday, 29 August 2011

Syrian anti-regime protesters carry banners during a rally in Talbiseh, in the central province of Homs, Syria. (File Photo)

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