WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

(If true, this is the best way to deal with the Sinai problem. – JW)

At home with the Sawarka tribe in Sinai

The Egyptian army is negotiating deals with 13 Sinai Bedouin tribal chiefs for setting up militias to counter alien militant activity in their territories across the peninsula and in the Israeli border region. On offer are new weapons, training and monthly paychecks for undertaking this task. Sinai has a Bedouin population of approximately 100,000 from which, debkafile‘s military sources estimate, a fighting force of 8,000-10,000 can potentially be mustered.

Those sources note that Egypt has turned to the doctrine US Gen. David Petraeus, now CIA Director, applied in Iraq 2006 and 2007 to enlist Iraq’s Sunni tribal leaders in the western region to the war on al Qaeda by providing them with arms, training and regular payments.
The Egyptian army has so far managed to recruit two tribal leaders.

Abu Ahmed, chief of the Sawarkas, agreed this week to organize his men into a fighting force for securing the Egyptian-Israeli border and safeguarding it against terrorist and smuggling incursions from Sinai. Sawarka territory starts at the Philadelphi strip bordering southern Gaza and runs west along the Mediterranean coast of northern Sinai.

The Tiyaha tribe was also persuaded to join the Egyptian effort to purge Sinai of terrorists and smugglers. It controls a large square of land between the Nitzana border crossing south of the Gaza Strip up to central Sinai. This tribe and the Sawarka command the routes from southern Gaza into southern Sinai. They are partners in the arms smuggling tunnels into the Gaza Strip and control the criminal networks smuggling people, drugs and arms into Israel.

Now Cairo wants them to turn to preventing a repeat of the Aug. 18 cross-border terrorist raid by gunmen who killed 8 Israelis on the Eilat highway. debkafile‘s military sources report that the 15-20 terrorists who carried out the Eilat highway raid spent days in Tiyaha territory before they attacked Israel.
On the principle that it takes one to catch one, the Egyptians hope to transform these Bedouin tribes from smugglers and abettors of terrorists into guardians of the law and strong arms for stamping out the criminal networks and cross-border terrorist violence in Sinai.

Their effort may face its first test quite soon: Israel has solid intelligence of a Palestinian Jihad Islami group, which is sponsored by Tehran, heading from Gaza into Sinai for more cross-border raids into Israel. If the new arrangement stands up, one or both of the new Bedouin militias will intercept the attackers in time and hand them over to the Egyptian authorities.

Movement is also reported in another part of northern Sinai, where the US military contingent of the Multinational Force, posted there for the past three decades to secure the Israeli-Egyptian peace accord, has been ordered to enhance its training to meet the situation declining in Sinai since the Egyptian revolution.

An MFO official said the nearly 900 American soldiers were being instructed in force and facility protection amid Al Qaida-aligned attacks in Egypt.

“We have probably added more combat drills,” US Army Col. Eric Evans said. “We’re doing more stuff with weapons and movements. We added a little more intensity.”

Our military sources report, however, that the claims in the Cairo media of an Egyptian plan to demolish the Hamas smuggling tunnels were nothing more than disinformation to mask its ongoing campaign of recruitment among Bedouin tribes. If it takes off, Israel and its military will be confronted with three fundamental issues:
1.  Since the Egyptian-Israeli natural gas pipe was first blown up on February 5, Israel has allowed around 3,000 soldiers to enter Sinai, over and above the quota of limited to lightly-armed border police permitted by military clauses of their peace treaty.
Nonetheless, Saturday, Aug. 27, Egyptian officials made a point of contradicting an assertion by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak the day before that Israel had already agreed to the transfer of several thousands Egyptian troops to Sinai to tighten security there. Cairo is clearly not satisfied and wants to augment their numbers. Israel will have to make up its mind whether to allow Egypt pumping more troops into Sinai. Even if its consent is ad hoc, once there, the extra Egyptian troops are unlikely to leave.

2.  For the first time in Sinai history, the competent authorities will be handing security to its indigenous inhabitants.
Since most of the Sinai tribes have kinship ties with Bedouins on the Israeli side of the border, Israel might have to decide to set up a corresponding Bedouin militia for guard duty on its side. The framework is there. The Israeli army already has a Bedouin reconnaissance battalion operating in the Gaza sector.
3.  Both Egypt and Israel have had enough experience of Sinai Bedouin tribes in at least three wars not to trust their shifting loyalties. Unlike the Iraqi Sunni tribes of al Anbar, their obligations to paymasters whom they regard as aliens or interlopers are interchangeable according to circumstances and the size of imbursement on offer. So if the smugglers, al Qaeda ore Palestinian terrorist organizations top the Egyptian offer, the tribal chiefs won’t say no. Cairo’s plan for combating Sinai terror by proxy is therefore pretty flimsy.

Syrian death toll escalates in Damascus, Idlib as Iran urges Assad to listen.

Al Arabiya

Saturday, 27 August 2011

People protest against President Bashar al-Assad in the city of Amude. (Photo by REUTERS)

inShare1

Iran launches production of banned carbon fiber – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Islamic Republic says it has begun domestic production of substance embargoed by UN due to its use in uranium enrichment

AP

Iran has inaugurated its own production of carbon fiber, a material under UN embargo because of its potential use in the country’s controversial nuclear program, the official IRNA news agency reported Saturday.

Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said Iran decided to manufacture the strategic material domestically since it could no longer access carbon fiber on foreign markets because of the international sanctions.

“Because of the restrictions imposed by the enemies, Iran faced challenges in getting access to carbon fiber,” Vahidi was quoted by IRNA as saying.

“That had caused a bottleneck in Iran’s production of advanced and smart defense systems,” Vahidi said. He claimed Iran has mastered the entire process of carbon fiber production.

Iran uses carbon fiber for more advanced centrifuges, which spin uranium gas to produce enriched uranium. Low-enriched uranium can be used as nuclear fuel while highly enriched uranium can be used in a warhead.

4 rounds of sanctions imposed on Iran

The West suspects Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. Iran denies the charge and says its uranium enrichment is only geared toward peaceful activities, such as power generation.

Carbon fiber is extremely strong, light and flexible, with high tolerance for heat. It can be used in aerospace and civil engineering, as well as for military purposes. Its production is extremely complex.

Iran often makes announcements of technical and military advancements but those reports cannot be independently verified.

The United Nations has imposed four rounds of Security Council sanctions over Tehran’s refusal to halt the enrichment. Iran has been producing low-enriched uranium for years and began higher enrichment in February 2010, asserting it needs the higher grade material to produce fuel for a Tehran reactor that makes medical radioisotopes, needed for cancer patients.

Because of the UN ban on sales of carbon fiber to Iran, Tehran has previously had to buy it on foreign markets, presumably through middlemen. It has not disclosed where it obtained previous batches.

Syria’s youth coalition accuses Hezbollah of role in Assad’s brutal crackdown.

Al Arabiya

Friday, 26 August 2011

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised speech at an undisclosed location in Lebanon on August 26, 2011.

inShare3

Syrian Weapons Sites Worry U.S., Israel – WSJ.com.

Intelligence Services Allege Significant Stockpiles of Gases, Missiles at Military Bases Could Be Targets Amid Unrest

ByJAY SOLOMON

WASHINGTON—The U.S. and Israel are closely monitoring Syria’s suspected cache of weapons of mass destruction, fearing that terror groups could take advantage of the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad to obtain blistering agents, nerve gas and long-range missiles, according to officials from both countries.

United Nations investigators also recently concluded that Damascus had been secretly constructing a nuclear reactor with North Korean help before Israeli jets destroyed the site in late 2007. U.S. and U.N. nonproliferation officials continue to worry that Pyongyang may have provided Syria with additional nuclear-related equipment.

“We are very concerned about the status of Syria’s WMD, including chemical weapons,” Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, said in an interview. “Together with the U.S. administration, we are watching this situation very carefully.”

Israel has historically held concerns about the fall of the Assad regime, which has largely kept the Syria-Israel border quiet for the past 40 years. Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has increasingly voiced support for democratic change in Damascus.

“We see a lot of opportunity emerging from the end of the Assad regime,” Mr. Oren said.

A senior U.S. official said Syria’s suspected chemical weapons arsenal “is of great importance and…under intense study.”

U.S. and Israeli officials won’t disclose exactly how they are keeping tabs on Syrian weaponry. But in the past, the U.S. and Israel have tracked activities at Syrian military installations using satellites and human spies. In 2008, the George W. Bush administration released detailed photographs and other intelligence of a reactor allegedly set to produce weapons-grade plutonium on the Euphrates River in eastern Syria.

Washington’s concerns about Syria mirror in some ways those held about Libya, where U.S. intelligence agencies are trying to help rebels secure mustard gas, shoulder-fired missiles and light arms amassed by Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s regime in recent decades. The Obama administration is concerned these weapons could fall into the hands of militant groups and terrorist organizations operating across North Africa and the Middle East.

During a short-lived détente with the U.S. that began in 2003, Col. Gadhafi gave up the equipment needed to develop nuclear weapons.

Mr. Assad’s government has repeatedly denied that it has developed any nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. It accuses Israel of having developed the largest nuclear and chemical weapons arsenal in the Middle East, a charge Israel neither confirms nor denies.

Syria is one of six nations that isn’t a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, which bans the production and stockpiling of chemical weapons.

U.S. and Western intelligence services view Damascus as a central player in a global proliferation network that includes North Korea, Iran and the militant groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

U.S. officials believe North Korea has assisted both Damascus and Tehran in developing medium- and long-range missile systems. U.N. investigators also concluded in a recent report that Syria and Iran oversee sophisticated smuggling networks that move light arms and Katyusha missiles into Lebanon and the Palestinian territories via sea and land. Last year, the U.S. charged Syria with transferring long-range missile technologies to Hezbollah, a charge Damascus has denied.

A 2009 report by the Central Intelligence Agency said: “Syria has had a [chemical weapons] program for many years and already has a stockpile of CW agents, which can be delivered by aircraft, ballistic missiles and artillery rockets.”

Current and former U.S. officials said Syria has at least five sites where it produces chemical-weapons agents, including mustard gas, Sarin and VX. Mustard gas is a blistering agent used extensively in World War I. Sarin and VX are nerve agents that are considered more lethal.

But the officials said these facilities are difficult to track as they are spread across Syria and centered in such cities as Damascus, Hama, Latakia and Aleppo. Some production facilities are at military facilities that also store Syria’s Scud missiles.

U.S. officials said there are no indications that the Assad regime has transferred chemical weapons to Hezbollah or Hamas. They also stressed that there are no indications that any Syrian weapons facilities have been compromised or are vulnerable.

Still, U.S. officials said there are worries that this situation could change if Syria follows Libya into a period of prolonged unrest or civil war. There have already been reports of some Syrian military units splintering into pro- and antiregime elements, although the overall structure of the armed forces appears intact, U.S. officials said.

The level of U.S. concern about the stockpiles would grow should Syria descend into even deeper chaos or full-blown civil war, a U.S. official said. “That scenario is on the radar screen, and a lot of people are watching this closely, but we’re not there right now,” the official said.

Nonproliferation experts are particularly concerned that Syrian army units could be diverted away from guarding the weapons sites if the instability in the country continues. There are also fears that elements of the Syrian army could seek to sell artillery shells tipped with chemical or agents.

“The fear is fragmentation,” said Leonard Spector, head of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, an independent think tank in Washington. “If you have a situation where the military fragments, or where some of the locations are overrun, then you have all these other contingencies you have to plan for.”