WarSclerotic

MI chief sees hope for Assad yet – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Military Intelligence chief says Syrian president promoting worthwhile reform packages, retaining loyalty of army; also notes Iranian role in ‘Nakba’, Naksa’ Day border riots as well as Tehran’s influence over Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

Moran Azulay

Military Intelligence chief Major-General Aviv Kochavi said Tuesday Iranian influence was growing in Middle Eastern countries experiencing unrest or upheaval – such as Egypt and Syria.

“Assad understands today that his solution cannot only come from military responses, and that is why he is turning to reform,” Kochavi told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, referring to the protest-plagued president of Syria.

In Egypt, meanwhile, Tehran is trying to influence the outcomes of elections by tightening relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, the MI chief added.

“We must not belittle the reform package Assad has begun to promote. These reforms regard the improvement of wages, subsidies, and the opening up of more jobs,” Kochavi said.

He added that Bashar Assad’s army has so far remained loyal because soldiers have retained the belief that the suppression of protests is a legitimate way to prevent total rioting.

MI chief Koachavi in Knesset (Photo: Gil Yohanan)

“There is no desertion from the army,” he said. “Only 20-30 officers have deserted so far.” But a significant change in regime will “weaken the radical axis considerably”, Kochavi explained.

He added that Russia, concerned over losing its influence in Syria, was attempting to stabilize Assad’s regime. Iran and Hezbollah are also concerned the president may fall, prompting Iran to “intervene profoundly in order to take the riots down a notch”. But Iran’s influence is mostly through “transfer of knowledge and means”, not combative forces, Kochavi said.

“Iran and Hezbollah’s motivation to assist (Syria) stems from its profound fear of the repercussions and mainly of losing the partnership with Syria and possible leakage (into the Islamic Republic).”

The MI chief noted that Iran also played a direct role in events on Israel’s border. “Iran acted directly in Lebanon in organizing ‘Nakba Day’ and ‘Naksa Day’. It is working to make sure these acts of protest will continue.”

‘Syrian protests contagious’

Kochavi is also concerned over the transfer of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. “We are concerned Syrian weapons are being transferred to Hezbollah or other agents in Syria. At the beginning of the riots two bases in Syria were broken into and light weapons were stolen,” he said.

He also called the protests in Syria “contagious”, causing “the people to be more daring and the regime less daring”.

But even if a democracy does emerge in Syria, Kochavi explained, it will take years and even then is most likely to be “light democracy”.

Kochavi also discussed the relations between Tehran and Ankara, saying Iran was tightening ties with both Egypt – through the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood – and Turkey.

He also addressed the threat of its nuclear program. “Iran is currently running 5,000 active centrifuges, and means to reach 8,000. Up until now it has accumulated uranium enriched to a level of 3.5, at a weight of 4,300 kg,” he said.

“Iran is capable of building a nuclear warhead within a short time. It has succeeded in recovering from the last wave of sanctions, despite the fact that international agreement on the sanctions in the last round surprised it.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Hama will not surrender

The United States, Britain, France and Turkey are spearheading a plan to preserve Bashar Assad as Syrian president while cutting away his support system of relatives and political and military chiefs and replacing them with “moderate opposition” figures, debkafile reports exclusively from Washington and Middle East sources.Assad is lending the move qualified cooperation. Last week, he let the first foreign correspondents into the country to report from Damascus and even interview opposition members – although never far from his minders. He has also allowed Western go-betweens to establish mechanisms for “national dialogue” with opponents and rebel representatives as a mark of his willingness to gradually pacify protest and begin the process of democratic reform.
This move accounts from Assad’s privileged position in US public statements. US President Barack Obama and other US officials have never said he must go – like the Egyptian, Libyan and Tunisian leaders – notwithstanding his uniquely brutal crackdown on dissent at the cost of thousands of lives.

This policy found public expression for the first time on July 1 when US National Security Adviser Tom Donilon told CNN:  “Al Assad has made terrible mistakes and obviously abused his people,” but increasing pressure from the United States and Syria’s neighbors may be pushing al-Assad toward more representative, responsive government.”

debkafile‘s military sources are less optimistic.  Profound mistrust on both sides raises huge obstacles in the path of this objective. Washington, London, Paris and Ankara suspect that the as-yet non-existent national dialogue will not stop Assad continuing to send tanks and live bullets against demonstrators. The Syrian leader suspects the West is using diplomacy to throw him off guard against Turkish military intervention backed by the United States.

He will not have missed the report Sunday, July 3 in Turkey’s largest daily Huriyet. The article captioned “A Turkish Buffer Zone inside Syria,” asks: “Could Turkish troops enter Syria without seeking Damascus’ permission first, and set up shop there? You bet.”
Our military sources point out that Turkish units have been deployed on the Syrian border ready to cross at a moment’s notice for more than two weeks.

The Syrian president’s Iranian military and intelligence advisers explain to him that a Turkish buffer zone would not just be there to care for Syrian refugees; it would become a stronghold for Syrian politicians claiming to speak for the opposition. They would establish a transitional administration there on the same lines as the anti-Qaddafi Libyan rebel authority in Benghazi which has already gained the recognition of 17 governments.
Assad’s Iranian advisers warn him that the US and Turkey are preparing to apply to North Syria the lessons drawn from the Libyan conflict.
debkafile‘s sources add that neither Washington nor Ankara were prepared for another obstacle to their plans for Syria. The 300,000 residents of Hama, unaware of the diplomatic balls in play, are standing firm, determined to forcibly resist any attempt by the Syrian army to occupy their city.
The Syria ruler has therefore deployed large units around Hama, which are gnawing at its outskirts, but avoided ordering them to go into the city center. He knows that this order will result in a bloodbath savage enough to halt the Western bid for dialogue in its tracks and end the respite it has given him. More Syrians would then head for the Turkish border in their tens of thousands, giving Ankara the pretext for sending Turkish troops streaming into northern Syria.
Once again, all parties are eyeing the coming Friday to watch the number of protesters turning out in Aleppo, Syria’s second largest town and its commercial hub. A sizeable outbreak of protest there would give Assad’s grip on power another hefty jolt.

Israel’s MI chief: Iran and Hezbollah actively helping Syria squash demonstrations – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi says Islamic republic and Lebanon-based militant group fear that the anti-government protests will slide into areas under their control.

Iran and Hezbollah are actively assisting Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime in cracking down on anti-government demonstrations, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi said on Tuesday.

The Islamic republic and the Lebanon-based militant group have been transferring  information, technical assistance and equipment to Syria to disperse demonstrators, said Kochavi.

“The great motivation Iran and Hezbollah have to assist [Syria] comes from their deep worry regarding the implications these events might have, particularly losing control of their cooperation with the Syrians and having such events slide onto their own territories,” said the MI chief.

Iran operated directly in Lebanon to help organize Nakba Day and Naksa Day events and was making every effort to prevent anti-government demonstrations in Syria from continuing.

“Iran is taking total advantage of the unrest in the Middle East to push itself deeper into the states and organizations in the [region], including Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Bahrain, Sudan, Yemen, Gaza and Iraq” said Kochavi.

Iran last week denied similar accusations made by the European Union and the United States.

	IDF Military Intelligence Chief Brigadier-General Aviv Kochavi.
	Photo by: Alon Ron

Syria forces enter Hama as residents take to streets – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Local resident reports at least 30 buses of soldiers and police enter Hama Monday; thousands of Hama residents on streets protesting despite recent regime crack-down on demonstrators.

By Reuters and DPA

Syrian troops stormed houses in the city of Hama on Monday as thousands of residents took to the streets shouting “God is greater” in defiance of a government crack-down on recent large protests, residents said.

“At least 30 buses carrying soldiers and security police entered Hama this morning. They are firing randomly in residential neighborhoods,” one of the residents, a workshop owner who gave his name as Ahmad, said by telephone.

	Syrian anti-regime protesters tearing down a poster of President Bashar al-Assad in Hama, north of Damascus.
	Photo by: AFP/YouTube

He said he had seen dozens of soldiers surround a house in the Mashaa neighborhood and make arrest.

Syrian government troops have pulled back from positions around the central city of Hama, a report said earlier on Monday.

Soldiers had deployed around the city of 650,000 late Saturday following protests by tens of thousands of people against President Bashar Assad, the opposition Local Coordination Committees of Syria told Al Jazeera news agency.

The troops withdrew late Sunday, after arresting dozens of people in outlying neighborhoods of the city, unidentified witnesses were quoted as saying.

The opposition said secret police were patrolling the city and that authorities had carried out arrests in Hama amid heavy gunfire and increased troop presence.

Saturday’s protests were the largest against the government since the unrest began three months ago, the Al Jazeera report said.

The crackdown in Hama came one day after Assad dismissed the governor when crowds started gathering in the provincial capital on Friday.

More than 1,365 civilians and 344 security personnel have been killed, according to local human rights groups, since the protests calling for Assad’s ouster began in mid-March.

Al Jazeera reported Monday that troops had killed two protesters in a suburb of Damascus.

At least 10,000 people have been detained, according to human rights advocates. Reports of casualties and arrests cannot be independently verified because most foreign media have been banned from Syria.

Last month, Assad said a national dialogue would start soon to review new legislation including laws on parliamentary elections, allow the creation of political parties other than the ruling Baath Party and to consider changes to the constitution.

Protesters and Western diplomats have called Assad’s promises for a national dialogue insufficient as the violent crackdown on the demonstrations continued.

Ex-Mossad Chief’s Iran Warnings May Backfire: Jeffrey Goldberg – Bloomberg.

In a country of hard men, Meir Dagan, the recently retired head of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, is one of the hardest. He is the Siberian-born son of Holocaust survivors, an ex- commando who has arranged the assassinations of many of Israel’s enemies.

He is devoted to the defense of his country, and, like most of Israel’s samurai class, sees Iran, and its Jew- hating, missile-obsessed leadership, as his country’s foremost threat, because of its nuclear intentions and its support for the Islamist terror groups that seek Israel’s destruction.

So a pressing question in Israel today is this: Why has Dagan called into question the wisdom — and, privately, even the sanity — of any Israeli leader who contemplates a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

The answer illuminates an enormous divide within Israel’s national-security establishment. It also suggests that Dagan, without peer as a saboteur, assassin and spy, is a bungling strategist.

In two recent speeches, Dagan called an Iran strike “a stupid idea,” and said “the regional challenge that Israel would face would be impossible.” He has made clear he believes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are driving Israel toward a war it can’t win. He has said that while in office he worked with other security officials to thwart “any dangerous adventure.” But, he went on, “Now I am afraid that there is no one to stop Bibi and Barak.”

Mossad’s View

Last year, while reporting on the possibility of an Iranian-Israeli confrontation — the world’s most serious latent crisis — I heard repeatedly from officials familiar with the Mossad’s views that the agency thought the costs of an Israeli strike on Iran would outweigh the benefits. The Mossad analysis held that such an attack would not be an echo of the 1981 Israeli bombing of Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, because Iraq had concentrated its nuclear program in one place.

Iran’s nuclear program is spread throughout the country, and Iran, of course, is farther from Israel. Mossad analysts are also certain that Iran would order its Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon to launch thousands of rockets at Israel. This could force the Israeli air force to break off its attack on Iran in order defend Israel in what could be a multifront assault.

Even so, the Mossad, like every agency in Israel’s national security establishment, views Iran’s nuclear program as a threat to Israel’s existence and understands that the mere possibility of an Israeli attack helps deter Iran’s ambitions.

Dagan’s Break

So what caused Dagan’s break with his former boss, and his decision to publicly undermine Netanyahu’s position that, in the now-familiar phrase, “all options are on the table”?

I spoke with several people familiar with Dagan’s thinking. They told me he believes that Barak, in particular, sees no great downside to a strike on Iran, and that Netanyahu is a prisoner to the idea that it’s his personal responsibility to stop a potential new Holocaust. They also suggested that Netanyahu wants to change the subject from his difficulties with the Palestinians.

It’s no secret that the prime minister has been outfoxed by the Palestinian leadership lately, and that Israel is desperately trying to stop a Palestinian independence initiative at the United Nations. Netanyahu is capable of great cynicism, and he has made clear that the peace process doesn’t interest him very much. But launching an airstrike on the Persian Empire? He would do such a thing only if he believed Israel’s existence was in danger, and that the U.S. was prepared to stand by as Iran went nuclear.

Competing Analysis

Today, there’s a war within the Israeli defense establishment, a war of competing analysis. Dagan leads the camp of officials and ex-officials who believe that Netanyahu should spend all his time trying to convince President Barack Obama that only the U.S. is capable of neutralizing the Iranian threat, and that Netanyahu should shelve the idea, once and for all, of launching an attack himself.

There is much to credit in Dagan’s argument. Iran may be too large a problem for a small state to handle, even a small state with a potent air force. And he is certainly correct to say that Netanyahu and Barak, the only two men with the power to order a strike, are seriously contemplating military action. Dagan would not have spoken out in such dramatic fashion, and burned so many bridges, if he thought Netanyahu and Barak weren’t serious.

Undermining Deterrence

But Dagan didn’t count on one thing: His public denunciations may actually bring Israel closer to launching an attack. He has undermined the credibility of Israel’s deterrent posture. Western intelligence agencies, the Obama administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency all suspect that Iran’s leaders are moving steadily toward a nuclear bomb, less fearful of an Israeli strike than they were last year. The Iranians, intelligence officials told me, believe Dagan’s statements reflect the position of Israel’s defense establishment.

They don’t. But this perception is critical. If Israel does attack the Iranian nuclear program, it will in part be because Dagan undermined his country’s deterrent credibility.

Lately, it has become received wisdom that Israel is leaning against a strike and is instead pinning its hopes on Obama. But those who argue that Netanyahu would not attack Iran know nothing about the man, about his fears, his militancy, his belief that history has entrusted him with the survival of the Jewish people. Meir Dagan might not know strategy. But he knows to take Netanyahu’s preoccupation with Iran seriously.

(Jeffrey Goldberg, a national correspondent for The Atlantic, is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Rocket fired from Gaza Strip lands harmlessly in southern Israel.

Al Arabiya

Sunday, 03 July 2011

A rocket fired from the Gaza Strip struck open fields in southern Israel on Sunday, causing no damage or injuries, the Israeli army said.

“A rocket fired from Gaza fell this morning on open land in the Eshkol region,” an army spokeswoman said.

The rocket was the first fired from Gaza since June 16, when a projectile launched from the coastal enclave also landed in Eshkol, but the border between Gaza and Israel has been largely calm in recent months.

In early April, tensions increased after a rocket-propelled grenade fired from Gaza struck an Israeli school bus, killing a teenager.

Israel responded with a series of airstrikes that killed at least 19 Palestinians in the deadliest violence since Israel’s 22-day Operation Cast Lead on the Palestinian territory in 2008-2009.

The violence raised fears of another such assault, but on April 10 the Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip declared a return to the truce that ended Cast Lead in January 2009, and the calm has largely held since then.

Syria security forces deployed at Hama after mass protest – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Tanks deployed at entrance to city north of Damascus, two days after Hama saw largest anti-Assad protest since start of uprising.

By Reuters

Syrian tanks have deployed at the entrances to the city of Hama, activists and residents said on Sunday, two days after it saw the largest protest against President Bashar Assad since an uprising began three months ago.

“Tens of people are being arrested in neighborhoods on the edges of Hama. The authorities seem to have opted for a military solution to subdue the city,” Rami Abdel-Rahman, president of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told Reuters.

	Syrian anti-government protesters tearing down a portrait of late president Hafez Assad, right, and his son, President Bashar Assad, in Hama, April 29, 2011.
	Photo by: AFP

Hama, 210 km north of Damascus, was the scene of the bloodiest episode in Syria’s modern history, when troops killed up to 30,000 people in an assault in 1982 to put down an Islamist-led uprising against the iron rule of Assad’s father, the late President Hafez Assad.

On Saturday, President Bashar Assad sacked the governor of Hama province on Saturday, a day after tens of thousands of protesters massed in the provincial capital to demand the Syrian leader step down.

The demonstration in Hama, scene of a bloody crackdown by Assad’s father nearly 30 years ago, was part of nationwide protests which activists said were some of the biggest since the uprising against Assad’s rule erupted 14 weeks ago.

Another 10 people were shot dead by security forces who confronted demonstrators in the central city of Homs, Damascus suburbs and the Mediterranean city of Latakia, activists said.

Nasrallah implies Israel behind Hariri hit – JPost – Middle East.

  Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday defended the four members of the terrorist organization charged with the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, praising the men as “brothers” and implying that Israel’s hand was behind the UN tribunal that last week issued the indictments.

Speaking from an undisclosed location, Nasrallah addressed the allegations for the first time since the UN court announced the indictments on Thursday. Charges that Hezbollah was behind the 2005 killing of the prominent Sunni leader have already inflamed sectarian tensions in the small and fractious country.

Nasrallah lamented that charges had been brought against “brothers who have made history in resisting the Zionist occupation.”

“We mentioned the possibility of having Israel involved in the murder and the fact that [Israeli] agents were present at the murder scene one day before the murder,” he said, according to a translation provided by the website Now Lebanon.

“No one in the STL [Special Tribunal for Lebanon] even asked the Israelis anything. This is normal, why? Because the tribunal, since its formation, had a precise goal and no one was allowed to talk to the Israelis … Instead of investigating the Israelis, [the STL] gathered information from them,” he said.

Nasrallah dismissed the tribunal as “politicized,” and said the arrest warrants issued against the Hezbollah operatives “are a step in a long journey whose course is becoming clearer, following Israel’s defeat and the victory of the resistance in the [Second Lebanon] war.”

The 2005 assassination of Hariri, seen as a Sunni leader, plunged Lebanon into a series of crises which included killings and brief internal fighting.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Jamal Wakim of Lebanese International University defended Nasrallah’s comments. “It would be in the interest of Israel to implicate Hezbollah in such an act so that it’s viewed not as a resistance moment but a terrorist movement involved in acts not only against Israelis but Lebanese,” he said. “That would mean it is a Shia movement that killed a Sunni leader … In order to engender civil strife that could lead to a civil war.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Iran: UN sanctions can’t slow missile advancements – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iranian defense minister’s comments come amid ten days of war games; Iran recently unveiled underground silos that can carry missiles capable of hitting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf.

By The Associated Press and Amos Harel

Iran’s defense minister says the country’s missile development shows that UN sanctions are ineffective and won’t hinder defense programs.

Gen. Ahmad Vahidi says Iran’s missile program is “indigenous” and has no reliance on foreign countries.

	The purported launching of a Shahin missile during war games in Iran.
	Photo by: AP

Saturday’s comments come amid ten days of war games, the country’s latest show of military force amid a standoff with the West over its disputed nuclear program. Vahidi’s statement was posted on the official website of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s most powerful military force.

Iran on Monday unveiled underground silos that can carry missiles capable of hitting Israel and U.S. bases.

State TV broadcast footage of deep underground silos, claiming that medium- and long-range missiles stored in them are ready to launch in case of an attack on Iran. The silos are widely viewed as a strategic asset for Iran in the event of a U.S. or Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.

An unidentified officer in Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard told state TV that “only few countries in the world possess the technology to construct underground missile silos. The technology required for that is no less complicated than building the missile itself.”

Israel, which views Iran’s as an existential threat, has accused Tehran of receiving assistance from North Korea in building underground missile sites.

But Col. Qelichkhani said the silos are based on local technology developed by Iranian experts.

Iran is under four sets of UN sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. The U.S. and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to build a nuclear weapon, a claim Iran denies.

‘US accuses Iran of sending weap… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

  US senior officials have accused the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s elite military unit, of sending military weapons to its allies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.

According to the report, Iran supplied the Taliban in Afghanistan with weapons that have increased the insurgents capabilities of striking US troops and targets from a farther distance.

The accusation comes as tensions between Tehran and Washington continue to escalate. Last Wednesday, the US Treasury Department said that it would impose greater sanctions on Iran following its support for another ally in the region: Syria.

The report of arms shipments from Iran to groups engaging in military conflict with the US heightens the competition for influence in the region playing out between the US and Iran.

And despite US sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Republic last week carried out a large-scale military drill called “Great Prophet Mohammad War Games 6” to allegedly test out Iran’s defense capabilities as well as practice the use of advanced equipment.

Besides the US, different nations in the Middle East have expressed growing concern over Iran’s military aspirations and regional influence.

Israel last week expanded economic sanctions against Iran, following a controversy over the late Israel shipping tycoon Sami Ofer’s supposed trade with the Islamic Republic.

Israel has long claimed that Iran arms and funds Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, two Islamist groups hostile to the Jewish State.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu claimed that the sanctions were “an important step in the struggle against Iran’s nuclear program.”

Saudi Arabia also expressed concern over Iran’s military projects, including the contentious issue of nuclear arms development. A senior Saudi Arabian official said on Thursday “We cannot live in a situation where Iran has nuclear weapons and we don’t. It’s as simple as that.”

“If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, that will be unacceptable to us and we will have to follow suit,” the official said.

Saudi Arabia has long been an opponent of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, and as a Sunni Muslim country sees a Shi’ite Iran as an threat of influence in the region as well.

Saudi Arabia has frequently accused Iran of engaging in pro-Shi’ite activities in neighboring Bahrain, Syria and Lebanon.