WarSclerotic

Syrian forces shoot dead 10 protesters in Hama.

AMMAN – Forces loyal to President Bashar Assad shot dead 10 people on Tuesday in the Syrian city of Hama, activists said, and France called on the United Nations to adopt a firm stance in the face of “ferocious armed repression.”

Tanks were still surrounding Hama, days after it witnessed some of the biggest protests against Assad’s rule since a 14-week uprising erupted in March.

The attacks focused on two districts north of the Orontes River, which splits the city of 650,000 people in half. Residents said the dead included two brothers, Baha and Khaled al-Nahar, who were killed at a roundabout.

Troops raided towns to the northwest of Hama near the border with Turkey in Idlib province, and authorities intensified a campaign of arrests that has resulted in the detention of at least 500 people across Syria in the last few days, rights campaigners said.

In the eastern provincial capital of Deir al-Zor, security forces arrested Ahmad Tuma, a former political prisoner and secretary general of the Damascus Declaration, a grouping of opposition figures founded in 2005 to unify efforts to transform the country into a democracy.

“Heavily armed ‘amn’ (security police) came to Dr Tuma’s clinic and dragged him away in front of his patients,” one of Tuma’s friends told Reuters by phone.

Some residents of Hama, scene of a crackdown by Assad’s father nearly 30 years ago, had sought to halt any military advance by blocking roads between neighborhoods with garbage containers, burning tires, wood and metal.

Tuesday’s raid by security forces and gunmen loyal to Assad followed the killings of at least three people when troops and security police entered Hama at dawn on Monday.

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Romain Nadal said the world could not stand by “inactive and powerless” in the face of the violence.

“We are hoping that the Security Council adopt a clear and firm position and we call on all the members of the Security Council to take responsibility in light of this dramatic situation with a Syrian population subjected day after day to an unacceptable, ferocious and implacable armed repression.”

French MP Gerard Bapt, head of the French-Syrian Friendship Committee, told Reuters: “With the Arab League not moving and with a nation like Saudi Arabia saying nothing publicly to condemn the killings by the Syrian regime it is difficult to see international pressure rising beyond the economic.”

France, unlike its European partners and the United States, says Assad has lost legitimacy to rule. But a French campaign for UN condemnation of the crackdown has met stiff Russian and Chinese resistance.

Asked why there has been no international intervention in Syria like there was in Libya, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said a request from the Arab League to impose a no-fly zone on Libya was a major factor behind action there.

“Assad may wait to see whether large-scale protests in Hama continue. He knows that using military aggression against peaceful demonstrations in a symbolic place like Hama would lose him support even from Russia and China,” Syrian activist Mohammad Abdallah told Reuters from exile in Washington.

Abdallah said using tanks to attack Hama would “totally discredit” a promise made by Assad to seek dialogue with his opponents. Troops and armor were attacking villages and towns in the Jabal-al-Zawya region, north of Hama, which had been the scene of large protests against Assad’s 11-year rule, he said.

Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria for 30 years until his death in 2000, sent troops into Hama in 1982 to crush an Islamist-led uprising in the city where the Fighting Vanguard, the armed wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, made its last stand.

That attack killed many thousands, possibly up to 30,000, and one slogan shouted by Hama protesters in recent weeks was “Damn your soul, Hafez”.

Authorities have prevented most independent media from operating in Syria, making it difficult to verify accounts from activists and authorities.

Rights groups say Syrian security forces have shot and killed at least 1,300 civilians across the country since the protests started and arrested over 12,000.

Several troops and police officers have been killed for refusing to fire at civilians.

Authorities say 500 police and soldiers have been killed by gunmen, who they blame for most civilian deaths.

Assad has promised a national dialogue with the opposition to discuss political reform in Syria, which has been under the iron rule of the Baath Party for nearly 50 years. Many opposition figures reject dialogue while the killings and arrests continue.

IDF intel chief: Iran intervening in Egyptian … JPost – Defense.

  Head of IDF Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi warned of Iranian intervention in Egyptian elections, speaking about the regime in a Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meeting on Tuesday.

“Iran is attempting to influence the political process in Egypt through efforts to connect with the Muslim Brotherhood,” Kochavi said.

Kochavi also said that the Muslim Brotherhood is pressing for elections in Egypt to take place as soon as possible, because it is “the only group that’s ready for elections.”

“The international community is trying to delay the vote so more moderate groups can be better organized,” he explained.

In the meantime, the Egyptian army is losing control of the Sinai, according to Kochavi.

The IDF intelligence chief also reported that Iran will be able to produce a nuclear weapon within two years.

“Iran recovered from the last wave of sanctions, even though the international consensus surprised them,” Kochavi said.

He also emphasized Iranian influence throughout the region, including Turkey.

“We see closer relations between Iran and Turkey, which are focused mostly on trade, but also include military matters,” he said.

“Iran is taking advantage of the upheaval in the Middle East to deepen their infiltration into states and organizations in the region,” he added, saying that the Islamic Republic is working in Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Bahrain, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq and Gaza.

“As Iran continues to work on its nuclear project, it works to transfer weapons and instill radical Islamic ideologies throughout the Middle East,” Kochavi explained.

In addition “the potential for a cyber-attack is growing, and will eventually be a greater threat than Iran’s other weapons.”

Kochavi also said that Iran was active in planning the “Nakba” and “Naksa” day demonstrations and border crossings from Lebanon.

“Iran is making efforts to ensure that such events will continue,” he explained, “but they were disappointed that [the border crossings] were not more successful.”

“Iran and Hezbollah are actively helping the Syrian regime in oppressing protesters,” Kochavi said. “They are transferring means for dispersing demonstrations, knowledge and technical aid.”

“They are motivated to help due to their deep fear of the demonstrations’ implications, especially losing their partnership with the Syrians and a trickling of protests into their territory,” he explained.

Kochavi estimated that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is stable, and will remain so as long as demonstrations do not reach Damascus and Aleppo.

“Assad understands that the way to end this situation is not only military, so he has turned to reform,” he explained, adding that the reforms include subsidies and job creation.

“Most of the Syrian army remains loyal to Assad, especially high-ranking Alawite officers, who believe that quelling the demonstrations is a legitimate mission, which will prevent the Alawites from losing control of Syria,” Kochavi said. “There is no major phenomenon of defection – only 20-30 officers and a few hundred soldiers have left the Syrian army.”

However, Kochavi also said that “if Assad remains in power after the riots, his position will be much weaker.”

The IDF intelligence chief stated that Syria continues to send weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite the demonstrations.

Kochavi also commented on the agreement between Fatah and Hamas, calling it “unstable.”

“The agreement is only for show, it doesn’t have any practical content,” he explained. “Fatah continues to arrest Hamas men in the West Bank, albeit in smaller amounts.”

“[Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud] Abbas wants to bolster [PA President Salam] Fayyad, because he is an asset internationally, but Hamas sees him as a red flag,” Kochavi added.

“Abbas prefers that we restart negotiations, so he doesn’t have to take Palestinian statehood to a vote in the UN,” Kochavi said. “He’ll negotiate if we accept his terms – ’67 borders and a settlement construction freeze.”

Syrian forces hit Hama as protestors erect barriers and set tires ablaze.

Al Arabiya

Tuesday, 05 July 2011

Syrian refugees shout slogans as they protest against Syrian President Bashar Al Assad at a refugee camp in the Turkish border town of Yayladagi in Hatay province. (File Photo)

MI chief sees hope for Assad yet – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Military Intelligence chief says Syrian president promoting worthwhile reform packages, retaining loyalty of army; also notes Iranian role in ‘Nakba’, Naksa’ Day border riots as well as Tehran’s influence over Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

Moran Azulay

Military Intelligence chief Major-General Aviv Kochavi said Tuesday Iranian influence was growing in Middle Eastern countries experiencing unrest or upheaval – such as Egypt and Syria.

“Assad understands today that his solution cannot only come from military responses, and that is why he is turning to reform,” Kochavi told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, referring to the protest-plagued president of Syria.

In Egypt, meanwhile, Tehran is trying to influence the outcomes of elections by tightening relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, the MI chief added.

“We must not belittle the reform package Assad has begun to promote. These reforms regard the improvement of wages, subsidies, and the opening up of more jobs,” Kochavi said.

He added that Bashar Assad’s army has so far remained loyal because soldiers have retained the belief that the suppression of protests is a legitimate way to prevent total rioting.

MI chief Koachavi in Knesset (Photo: Gil Yohanan)

“There is no desertion from the army,” he said. “Only 20-30 officers have deserted so far.” But a significant change in regime will “weaken the radical axis considerably”, Kochavi explained.

He added that Russia, concerned over losing its influence in Syria, was attempting to stabilize Assad’s regime. Iran and Hezbollah are also concerned the president may fall, prompting Iran to “intervene profoundly in order to take the riots down a notch”. But Iran’s influence is mostly through “transfer of knowledge and means”, not combative forces, Kochavi said.

“Iran and Hezbollah’s motivation to assist (Syria) stems from its profound fear of the repercussions and mainly of losing the partnership with Syria and possible leakage (into the Islamic Republic).”

The MI chief noted that Iran also played a direct role in events on Israel’s border. “Iran acted directly in Lebanon in organizing ‘Nakba Day’ and ‘Naksa Day’. It is working to make sure these acts of protest will continue.”

‘Syrian protests contagious’

Kochavi is also concerned over the transfer of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. “We are concerned Syrian weapons are being transferred to Hezbollah or other agents in Syria. At the beginning of the riots two bases in Syria were broken into and light weapons were stolen,” he said.

He also called the protests in Syria “contagious”, causing “the people to be more daring and the regime less daring”.

But even if a democracy does emerge in Syria, Kochavi explained, it will take years and even then is most likely to be “light democracy”.

Kochavi also discussed the relations between Tehran and Ankara, saying Iran was tightening ties with both Egypt – through the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood – and Turkey.

He also addressed the threat of its nuclear program. “Iran is currently running 5,000 active centrifuges, and means to reach 8,000. Up until now it has accumulated uranium enriched to a level of 3.5, at a weight of 4,300 kg,” he said.

“Iran is capable of building a nuclear warhead within a short time. It has succeeded in recovering from the last wave of sanctions, despite the fact that international agreement on the sanctions in the last round surprised it.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Hama will not surrender

The United States, Britain, France and Turkey are spearheading a plan to preserve Bashar Assad as Syrian president while cutting away his support system of relatives and political and military chiefs and replacing them with “moderate opposition” figures, debkafile reports exclusively from Washington and Middle East sources.Assad is lending the move qualified cooperation. Last week, he let the first foreign correspondents into the country to report from Damascus and even interview opposition members – although never far from his minders. He has also allowed Western go-betweens to establish mechanisms for “national dialogue” with opponents and rebel representatives as a mark of his willingness to gradually pacify protest and begin the process of democratic reform.
This move accounts from Assad’s privileged position in US public statements. US President Barack Obama and other US officials have never said he must go – like the Egyptian, Libyan and Tunisian leaders – notwithstanding his uniquely brutal crackdown on dissent at the cost of thousands of lives.

This policy found public expression for the first time on July 1 when US National Security Adviser Tom Donilon told CNN:  “Al Assad has made terrible mistakes and obviously abused his people,” but increasing pressure from the United States and Syria’s neighbors may be pushing al-Assad toward more representative, responsive government.”

debkafile‘s military sources are less optimistic.  Profound mistrust on both sides raises huge obstacles in the path of this objective. Washington, London, Paris and Ankara suspect that the as-yet non-existent national dialogue will not stop Assad continuing to send tanks and live bullets against demonstrators. The Syrian leader suspects the West is using diplomacy to throw him off guard against Turkish military intervention backed by the United States.

He will not have missed the report Sunday, July 3 in Turkey’s largest daily Huriyet. The article captioned “A Turkish Buffer Zone inside Syria,” asks: “Could Turkish troops enter Syria without seeking Damascus’ permission first, and set up shop there? You bet.”
Our military sources point out that Turkish units have been deployed on the Syrian border ready to cross at a moment’s notice for more than two weeks.

The Syrian president’s Iranian military and intelligence advisers explain to him that a Turkish buffer zone would not just be there to care for Syrian refugees; it would become a stronghold for Syrian politicians claiming to speak for the opposition. They would establish a transitional administration there on the same lines as the anti-Qaddafi Libyan rebel authority in Benghazi which has already gained the recognition of 17 governments.
Assad’s Iranian advisers warn him that the US and Turkey are preparing to apply to North Syria the lessons drawn from the Libyan conflict.
debkafile‘s sources add that neither Washington nor Ankara were prepared for another obstacle to their plans for Syria. The 300,000 residents of Hama, unaware of the diplomatic balls in play, are standing firm, determined to forcibly resist any attempt by the Syrian army to occupy their city.
The Syria ruler has therefore deployed large units around Hama, which are gnawing at its outskirts, but avoided ordering them to go into the city center. He knows that this order will result in a bloodbath savage enough to halt the Western bid for dialogue in its tracks and end the respite it has given him. More Syrians would then head for the Turkish border in their tens of thousands, giving Ankara the pretext for sending Turkish troops streaming into northern Syria.
Once again, all parties are eyeing the coming Friday to watch the number of protesters turning out in Aleppo, Syria’s second largest town and its commercial hub. A sizeable outbreak of protest there would give Assad’s grip on power another hefty jolt.

Israel’s MI chief: Iran and Hezbollah actively helping Syria squash demonstrations – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi says Islamic republic and Lebanon-based militant group fear that the anti-government protests will slide into areas under their control.

Iran and Hezbollah are actively assisting Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime in cracking down on anti-government demonstrations, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi said on Tuesday.

The Islamic republic and the Lebanon-based militant group have been transferring  information, technical assistance and equipment to Syria to disperse demonstrators, said Kochavi.

“The great motivation Iran and Hezbollah have to assist [Syria] comes from their deep worry regarding the implications these events might have, particularly losing control of their cooperation with the Syrians and having such events slide onto their own territories,” said the MI chief.

Iran operated directly in Lebanon to help organize Nakba Day and Naksa Day events and was making every effort to prevent anti-government demonstrations in Syria from continuing.

“Iran is taking total advantage of the unrest in the Middle East to push itself deeper into the states and organizations in the [region], including Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Bahrain, Sudan, Yemen, Gaza and Iraq” said Kochavi.

Iran last week denied similar accusations made by the European Union and the United States.

	IDF Military Intelligence Chief Brigadier-General Aviv Kochavi.
	Photo by: Alon Ron