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Archive for May 25, 2011
Israeli Prime Minister Addresses Congress.
May 25, 2011‘Fin de Régime’ in Syria?
May 25, 2011Lion’s Den: ‘Fin de Régime’ in Sy… JPost – Opinion – Columnists.
The ongoing revolt in Syria offers great opportunities, humanitarian and geo-political. Western states should quickly seize the opportunity to dispatch strongman Bashar al-Assad and his henchmen. Many benefits will follow when they land in their appointed dustbins.
FOREIGN: The malign but tactically brilliant Hafez al- Assad blighted the entire Middle East with disproportionate Syrian influence for decades. His son, the feckless Bashar, has continued this pattern since 2000 by sending terrorists to Iraq, murdering Lebanon’s prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, overthrowing his son Saad, aiding Hezbollah and Hamas, and developing chemical and possibly nuclear weapons.
His disappearance will be a universal boon.
But Bashar’s main role internationally is serving as Tehran’s premier ally. Despite Westerners usually seeing the Syrian-Iranian alliance as a flimsy marriage of convenience, it has lasted over 30 years, through shifts in personnel and circumstances, due to what Jubin Goodarzi in 2006 called the two parties’ “broader, long-term strategic concerns derived from national security priorities.”
The Syrian intifada has already weakened the Iranian-led “resistance bloc” by politically distancing Tehran from Assad and fomenting divisions in the Iranian leadership. Syrian protesters are burning the Iranian flag; were (Sunni) Islamists to take power in Damascus, they would terminate the Iranian connection, seriously damping the mullahs’ grandiose ambitions.
The end of Assad’s rule can also have other important consequences. Bashar and the ruling Islamist AK party in Turkey have developed such close relations that some analysts predict the Assad regime’s removal will lead to a collapse of Ankara’s entire Middle East policy. Also, unrest among the Kurds of Syria could lead to their greater autonomy, which would in turn encourage co-ethnics in Anatolia to demand an independent state – a prospect that so worries Ankara, it sent a stream of high-level visitors to Damascus to urgently push a counter-insurgency accord.
Turmoil in Syria also offers relief for Lebanon, which has been under the Syrian thumb since 1976. Similarly, a distracted Damascus permits Israeli strategists – at least temporarily – to focus on the country’s many other foreign problems.
DOMESTIC: In a smug interview discussing developments in Tunisia and Egypt just weeks before his own country erupted on March 15, Bashar al-Assad explained the misery also facing his own subjects: “Whenever you have an uprising, it is self-evident that… you have anger [which] feeds on desperation.”
The word desperation nicely summarizes the Syrian people’s lot; since 1970, the Assad dynasty has dominated Syria with an iron Stalinist fist only slightly less oppressive than that of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Poverty, expropriation, corruption, stasis, oppression, fear, isolation, Islamism, torture and massacre have been the hallmarks of Assad rule.
Thanks to Western greed and gullibility, however, outsiders rarely realize the full reality. On one hand, the Syrian regime financially supports the Center for Syrian Studies at the University of St. Andrews. On the other, an informal Syria lobby exists. Thus, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton refers to Assad as a “reformer,” and Vogue magazine publishes a puff-piece on the tyrant’s wife titled “Asma al-Assad: A Rose in the Desert” (calling her “glamorous, young, and very chic – the freshest and most magnetic of first ladies”).
One potential danger of regime change must be noted. We can expect not a relatively gentle coup d’état as in Tunisia or Egypt, but a thoroughgoing revolution directed not only against the Assad clan but also the Alawi community from which it comes. Alawis, a secretive post-Islamic sect making up about one-eighth of the Syrian population, have dominated the government since 1966, arousing deep hostility among the majority Sunnis. Sunnis carry out the intifadas and Alawis do the dirty work of repressing and killing them. This tension could fuel a bloodbath and even a civil war – possibilities that outside powers must prepare for.
As the current impasse persists in Syria, with protesters regularly filling the streets and the regime regularly killing them, Western policy can make a decisive difference. Steven Coll of The New Yorker is right that “The time for hopeful bargaining with Assad has passed.”
The time has come to brush aside fears of instability for, as analyst Lee Smith rightly observes: “It can’t get any worse than the Assads’ regime.”
The time has come to push Bashar from power, protect innocent Alawis, and deal with “the devil we don’t know.”
The writer (www.DanielPipes.org) is director of the Middle East Forum, Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, and the author of three books on Syria.
Netanyahu wows Congress
May 25, 2011Netanyahu wows Congress – seattlepi.com.
In a muscular and well-received address to a joint session of Congress Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the case for why his nation should not return to its pre-1967 borders as part of a future peace agreement with Palestinians – a question over which he has jousted with President Barack Obama in the past week.
Speaking to a House chamber packed with lawmakers – rather than the usual complement of aides and student pages who fill in the back rows when foreign leaders visit – Netanyahu told Congress that any two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must take into account “the dramatic demographic changes” that have occurred since 1967, when Israel won territory and unified Jerusalem after being attacked in the “Six Day War.”
“Jerusalem must never again be divided,” Netanyahu said, echoing what he said in a 1996 speech to a joint session. He said that Israel would be “generous on the size of the Palestinian state” but will be careful about “where we put the border.”
Vice President Joe Biden, seated behind Netanyahu, did not applaud at the leader’s line on Jerusalem that won rousing suppport from Congress.
Netanyahu was interrupted by bipartisan, bicameral standing ovations 29 times during a speech that ran about 40 minutes.
The remarks were not as well received by Palestinian officials: One told the Associated Press that the path to peace outlined by Netanyahu amounted to a “declaration of war.”
Netanyahu, who was criticized for appearing to lecture Obama on the precariousness of the Jewish state during a visit to the White House last week, took no open swipe at Obama. That would have been bad form in front of Congress. Indeed, he even appeared to reach out to Obama at one point, noting that “as President Obama said, the border will be different than the one that existed on June 4, 1967.”
There have been different interpretations of what caused the latest bit of tension between Netanyahu and Obama – who have long had a testy relationship – leaving many to wonder the degree to which it’s simply a function of politics. But if it’s political, it isn’t entirely partisan. Republican and Democratic leaders both took to the podium at this week’s American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s annual policy conference to affirm their belief that Israel should not be forced to shrink to its pre-1967 borders as a prerequisite for peace.
“The place where negotiating will happen must be at the negotiating table – and nowhere else,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said at AIPAC‘s convention Monday night. “Those negotiations . will not happen – and their terms will not be set – through speeches, or in the streets, or in the media.”
But he left no question about his posture on the future borders of Israel: While some settlements will fall outside the new borders of Israel, the nation has no intention of leaving itself vulnerable to attack. “No distortion of history . can deny the 4,000-year-old bond between the Jewish people and the Jewish land,” he said.
He set down a marker that areas of “critical strategic and national importance will be included into the final borders of Israel.”
“It is my responsibility to lead my people to peace,” Netanyahu said. But that peace, he argued, must be based first on security. “The only peace that will hold is a peace that you can defend.”
He said that any Palestinian state must be demilitarized and that Israel would keep a “long-term military presence” along the Jordan River.
Netanyahu, who some joked would make a good GOP nominee for president had he not been born in Israel, impressed lawmakers with his command of the podium, the substance of his speech and his quick wit.
When interrupted by a protester high in one of the public galleries, Netanyahu noted that such demonstrations would not be permitted in Tehran or Tripoli.
He appealed to American lawmakers on the basis of commonalities between the two nations.
“You don’t need to do nation-building in Israel: We’ve already built. You don’t need to export democracy to Israel, we’ve already got it,” he said. “You don’t need to send American troops to Israel, we defend ourselves.”
He warned about the threat Iran poses to Israel and other nations.
“The greatest danger of all could soon be upon us: A militant Islamic regime armed with nuclear weapons,” he said.
Netanyahu to Congress: militant Islam threatening world, Iran’s nuclear plans must be halted – The Washington Post
May 25, 2011WASHINGTON — Israel’s prime minister, in an address to Congress on Tuesday, held out the threat of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying the only time Iran halted its nuclear program was when it feared such an attack.
Benjamin Netanyahu did not go so far as to say Israel would carry out such an assault. But he told Congress that militant Islam was threatening the world and urged the U.S. never to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
“The more Iran believes that all options are on the table, the less the chance of confrontation,” Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu has said before that Iran won’t curb its nuclear ambitions unless it thinks it is threatened with military action.
Israeli officials have said repeatedly that Iran must not be allowed to become a nuclear power and that all options to prevent that must remain on the table. But they have never explicitly said Israel would carry out such a strike.
Israel destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor in a 1981 airstrike. In that case, destroying that one target was enough to cripple the nuclear program.
But Israel’s recently retired spy chief said a military attack would be “stupid.”
Meir Dagan reasoned that an effective attack on Iran would be difficult because Iranian nuclear facilities are scattered and mobile, and because a strike would be liable to trigger war with Iran and possibly Syria.
Israel considers Iran to be its most formidable foe and like the West, does not believe Tehran’s claims that it is not developing nuclear weapons.
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
IAEA, Syria: Nuclear report on Syria may augur punitive action
May 25, 2011IAEA, Syria: Nuclear report on Syria may augur punitive action – latimes.com.
IAEA findings that Syria ‘very likely’ pursued a secret program may add to foreign pressure on Damascus amid a government crackdown on protesters. A separate report says Iran has expanded its nuclear capacity and stockpile.
Reporting from Beirut— The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog released a detailed report saying Syria “very likely” pursued a clandestine nuclear program, an assertion that is expected to add pressure on a regime already reeling from protests at home and sanctions imposed abroad. A confidential report published Tuesday by the International Atomic Energy Agency said Syria was building a nuclear reactor at a site in Dair Alzour that was bombed by Israel in September 2007 and had not declared the project to international inspectors, as required by Syria’s international treaty obligations. The details of the previously reported IAEA allegation that Syria was seeking to build a reactor will come as no surprise to the United States. U.S. intelligence agencies in April 2008 presented evidence asserting that Syria was building a clandestine plutonium reactor at Dair Alzour. But the report paves the way for possible punitive action against Syria at the U.N. Security Council at a time when the West is seeking ways to increase pressure on President Bashar Assad over his regime’s brutal crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. “The agency finally weighed in and came up with a conclusion that most governments came up with years ago,” said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who now heads the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington arms control watchdog. “This is laying down the gauntlet against Syria.” The report stops short of bluntly accusing Syria of being in noncompliance with its treaty obligations. But with Damascus already under intense international pressure, it may be enough to assemble a resolution against the nation, Western diplomats said. “You can’t ignore the timing,” said Albright. “Syria is politically weaker than it was six months ago, and it might be easier to muster the votes at the [IAEA] board to refer this to the Security Council.” Although no text of a proposed resolution has been passed around among members of the agency’s Board of Governors or among Security Council members, discussions involving the U.S. and other countries on a possible resolution were ongoing, said a Western diplomat. “As soon as the report is out, we will begin putting a text down to paper,” said another Western diplomat. The inspectors’ report notes the challenges of assessing a site that was bombed by Israel, bulldozed by the Syrian government afterward and blocked to inspection since June 2008, when traces of uranium particles were found that Syria alleged must have come from Israeli bombs. Based on the particles and historical satellite imagery showing the site’s progression and its layout, the agency concluded that “the site could not have served the purpose claimed by Syria,” which had maintained it was an unused military installation. A separate report on Iran’s nuclear program obtained by The Times says that the Islamic Republic, Syria’s strategic partner, had steadily increased the number of centrifuges producing enriched uranium and expanded its production of nuclear fuel. According to the report, Iran increased its total stockpile of reactor-grade nuclear fuel enriched to about 3.5% purity by 14% in the last three months, to 9,050 pounds, apparently overcoming any lingering effects of a computer virus attack on its nuclear infrastructure. Iran also increased the number centrifuges refining uranium by 13% to 5,860 machines at its facility near the city of Natanz. In addition, it has produced 125 pounds of medical-reactor-grade uranium enriched to 20% purity for a research facility in Tehran, up by about 30 pounds from the last reporting period, according to a copy of the U.N. inspectors’ report. Iran says it needs the higher-grade fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor after international proposals to recharge the ailing plant collapsed. But the report could ease tensions between Iran and the West, which accuses Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons, because Iran has not yet installed centrifuges at its previously undisclosed enrichment facility at Fordow nor launched a set of much-touted advanced centrifuges, Albright said. daragahi@latimes.com Special correspondent Julia Damianova in Istanbul, Turkey, contributed to this report. |
Hizballah to pull its heavy missiles from Syrian safekeeping
May 25, 2011DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 1, 2011, 9:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

The Lebanese Shiite Hizballah has obviously decided the Assad regime is sinking. debkafile‘s military sources report the organization is preparing to pull its heavy, long-range weapons out of storage in Syrian military facilities – no longer sure they are safe there – and risk transporting them to Lebanon.
Last year, Syrian President Bashar Assad agreed to store Hizballah’s incoming Iran-made Fatah-110 surface missiles and its Syrian equivalent the M-600 and the mobile SA-8 (Gecko) anti-air battery which holds 18 warheads with a maximum range of 12 kilometers. Tehran paid for the upkeep of the Hizballah hardware on Syrian side of the border after Israel threatened to bomb these potential game-changers if they crossed over.
Deployed at Hizballah bases in Lebanon, the Fatah-110 and M-600 would place almost every corner of Israel within range of bombardment, while the SA-8 would seriously restrict Israeli Air Force operations over southern Lebanon and Galilee.
However, as the uprising against Assad rolls ever closer to Damascus, Hizballah see a very real threat of it infecting the Syrian army and has decided that now might be its last chance to get hold of the core arsenal it has standing by for war with Israel before events get out of hand in Syria.
Hizballah’s headquarters in Dahya, Beirut, became alarmed when they heard about strong resentment building up in the Syrian 11th Division over the Assad crackdown against the dissidents – among officers as well as other ranks.
The 11th Division, which is camped outside Aleppo, is the best trained and organized of all Syrian army units, equipped as its strategic reserve with the most advanced weaponry. If the unrest has reached this elite unit, Hizballah reckons there is no time to losing for pulling its missiles out of Syrian military safekeeping.
Meanwhile, top Hizballah and Iranian offices in Tehran are working on the best way to transport the missiles into Lebanon without exposing them to Israeli attack, debkafile‘s Iranian sources report. Some of them calculate that Israel would not venture to strike them while still on Syrian soil because it would lay itself open to interfering, or even getting in the way of, the revolt against President Assad and playing into his hands.
A security emergency might well take the wind out of protest movement’s sails.
But already, Tehran’s Lebanese surrogate is beginning to distance itself from Bashar Assad, its longtime strategic partner and arms supplier, having decided he has his back to the wall. April 28, the Hizballah-controlled Lebanese Al Akhbar newspaper started criticizing the Assad regime on its op-ed pages.
Turkey ditches Assad, calls off participation in Gaza flotilla
May 25, 2011DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 25, 2011, 9:18 AM (GMT+02:00)

Syrian President Bashar Assad’s Arab and Muslimsupport is melting fast. debkafile‘s intelligence sources report that his second most steadfast supporter after Iran, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, has secretly ordered his government officials to dump Ankara’s ties with Damascus with all speed.
This change has several consequences which may also indirectly affect Turkey’s relations with Israel. For now, Erdogan has given Syrian opposition leaders permission for the first time to hold a meeting in Anatalia from May 31 to June 2 to turn over ways of intensifying the three-month popular uprising to the right pitch for finally toppling Bashar Assad.
After three months of unstinting support for the Assad regime, Turkish government circles seek to shun finding themselves “backing a regime which shoots to kill Muslims in the street.” After the number of Syrian deaths rose past 1,100, one high-ranking official commented to debkafile, “Turkey is a Muslim democracy. It must not lend support to dictators who murder their citizens.”
This change of policy has taken form in three additional steps:
1. The following message was posted to Damascus on Tuesday, May 24: Turkey is not a member of the European Union and is therefore not bound by its sanctions it has imposed freezing Assad’s assets and barring him and his regime heads from travelling. Nonetheless, the Syrian ruler is advised not to try and test its intentions by trying to visit Turkey.
2. Assad’s repression of the uprising in the Kurdish regions of northern Syria is causing ferment among the Kurds of southern Turkey. Unless it is stopped forthwith, Ankara will take overt action against the Syrian ruler.
3. Erdogan has discontinued his almost daily phone conversations with Assad. In any case, his advice to the Syrian ruler on how to overcome the uprising against him was never heeded.
Our sources report that he also ordered the Hakan Fidan, chief of Turkish MIT intelligence service, to stop traveling to Damascus with updates on Syrian opposition activities. Assad has thus lost his key source of information about what the opposition is up to.
As a by-product of this radical policy change in Ankara, the Turkish Prime Minister is reported by our sources to have reconsidered the dispatch from Turkish ports of a large anti-Israel flotilla for breaking the Gaza blockade. It was scheduled for the last week of June.
Fifteen vessels carrying 1,500 activists from several countries were due to take part, led by the Mavi Marmara, the Turkish vessel aboard which nine people were killed in a violent clash with Israeli commandos a year ago. Erdogan decided to withdraw Turkish participation lest Syria exploit another possible Israel-Turkish clash at sea to launch an attack on Israel’s northern border as a show of Syrian-Turkish solidarity.
These days, Ankara is working hard to avoid any suggestion of solidarity with Syria.



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