WarSclerotic

Syria’s referral to UNSC likely – Israel News, Ynetnews.

IAEA ready for potential Security Council action on Syria as it prepares report claiming Syrian target bombed by IDF warplanes was likely nuclear reactor

Associated Press

The International Atomic Energy Agency is setting the stage for potential UN Security Council action on Syria as it prepares a report assessing that a Syrian target bombed by Israeli warplanes was likely a secretly built nuclear reactor meant to produce plutonium, diplomats say.

Such a conclusion would back intelligence produced by Israel and the United States. Syria says the nearly finished building had no nuclear uses. It has repeatedly turned down IAEA requests to revisit the site after allowing an initial 2008 inspection that found evidence of possible nuclear activities.

interviews over the past week, three diplomats and a senior UN official said such an assessment – drawn up by IAEA chief Yukiya Amano – would be the basis of a Western-sponsored resolution at a meeting of the 35-nation IAEA board that condemns Syria’s refusal to cooperate with the agency and kicks the issue to the UN Security Council. They said reporting Syria to the council would likely come as early as a June board meeting and no later than in November.

All asked for anonymity in exchange for discussing confidential information.

In an apparent slip of the tongue that could have been a window on his plans, Amano on Thursday said for the first time that the bombed site was in fact a nearly finished nuclear reactor in taped comments at a news conference and later to The AP.

Suggesting that Amano had erred in making such comments publicly, the IAEA later put out a statement that “he did not say that the IAEA had reached the conclusion that the site was definitely a nuclear reactor.”

The rollback reflected previous, more circumspect, IAEA language. In a February report, Amano had said only that features of the bombed structure were “similar to what may be found at nuclear reactor sites.”

Once formally involved, the council has options ranging from doing nothing to passing its own resolutions demanding compliance with the IAEA, followed by sanctions to enforce such demands. This has been the scenario for Iran, under four sets of UN sanctions for ignoring council demands to stop activities that could be used to build nuclear arms and to cooperate with an IAEA probe of experiments that could be used to develop such weapons.

Syria sanctions are unlikely. While Tehran continues with its nuclear program, intelligence services believe that the Israeli bombing of the Al-Kibar site effectively ended Syria’s covert activities. As well, said the diplomats, forcing the issue with Syria would detract council attention from Iran, the main focus of nuclear concern, and could muddy efforts to focus on an end of the bloody crackdown by the Damascus government on the grass-roots pro-democracy movement.

Still Security Council involvement carries both symbolic weight and opens the path for concrete action later should new evidence be found.

Arab Spring? Not quite – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Arab world turmoil to prompt lethal geo-political twisters and floods in Mideast, not liberty

Yoram Ettinger

The 19th Century violence on the European street signaled the arrival of the Spring of Nations: National cohesion, liberty and rebellion against tyranny.

In contrast, the 2011 Middle East upheaval exposes the Arab Street: No “spring” and no “nations,” but the exacerbation of tribal-ethnic-religious-geographic loyalties, splits and power struggles, the intensification of domestic and intra-Arab fragmentation, the escalation of intolerance, violence and hate-culture, the absence of stability, the deepening of uncertainty, exposing the tenuous nature of Arab regimes, the ruthless submission of democracy-seeking elements and the perpetuation of ruthless tyrannies.

The 19th Century Spring of Nations was energized by waves of enthusiastic optimism. On the other hand, the 2011 delusion of the Spring of Nations is exposed by the impotence, despair and frustration of pro-democracy Arab activists, who are forced to emigrate as not to be persecuted.

The expectation for a near-term Arab Spring of Nations is detached from Middle East reality, could produce another victory of wishful-thinking over experience, already leads to a delusion-based policy and risks a lethal boomerang caused by delusional yearning.

In February, 2010 President Obama appointed a new ambassador to Damascus – following four years of diplomatic absence – “because Assad could play a constructive role in the Middle East.” In July 2000, Western policy-makers and public opinion molders cheered the prospect of Spring in Damascus upon the succession of Hafez Assad by his son, Bashar.

They were not alarmed by his 97% victory in two elections. They assumed that as an eye doctor, who interned in London, who is fluent in English and French, who was the chairman of the Syria Internet Association, and married to a London-educated wife who advocates women rights, he must be a moderate. They sacrificed documented facts – about the Assad family, the ruling Alawite minority, the Damascus vision and the centrality of the strategic cooperation between Syria and Iran – on the altar of the yearning of peace with Syria. The current turmoil in Syria exposes Western oversimplification and the authentic merciless nature of this Syrian despot.

In February 2011, President Obama and Secretary Clinton hastily proclaimed the ushering of democracy into Arab lands and the reincarnation of the spirit of MLK and Gandhi in the streets of Tunisia and Egypt. However, their expectations are thwarted by the thousands of moderate Tunisians who are escaping to the Italian Mediterranean island of Lampedusa and by the horrific campaign of killings, murder, torture, hate and corruption, which has accompanied recent volcanic eruptions in Arab countries.

Abbas’ track record ignored

In 1993, upon signing the Oslo Accord, the New Middle East visionaries announced Spring in Ramallah, the supremacy of standard-of-living over ideological and military considerations, the age of no-wars and the irrelevance of borders and military forces.

However, the conduct of the Palestinian Authority (epitomized by hate-education), the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the intensification of Islamic terrorism, the Iranian threat, the proliferation of advanced missiles, the murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri, the wars in Lebanon and Gaza and the current Middle East upheaval crashed the superficial New Middle East and Spring in Ramallah visions. Yet in order to sustain the “peace process,” Israeli and Western “elites” have ignored the unprecedented Arafat and Abbas-initiated hate-education and terrorism.

In January 2005, they were further encouraged by Abbas’ rise to the chairmanship of the Palestinian Authority. They would not be diverted from the pursuit of their visions by his track record: Introducing hate-education into Palestinian schools, mosques and media, subversion against Arab regimes, Holocaust denial, enrollment in KGB and Muslim Brotherhood schooling, the embracing of ruthless Soviet Bloc Communist regimes and centrality in the 1972 Munich Massacre.

The 1989 dismantling of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall triggered a Spring of Nations hope and a New World Order concept, which was swiftly transformed into a New World Disorder. While the Spring of Nations introduced democracy into Eastern Europe, it could not advance the cause of liberty in Arab lands. Some 1,400 years of Muslim-Arab tyranny, guided by an imperialistic, intolerant and violent religion, which embraces terrorism and tolerates “female circumcision” (genital mutilation), constitutes too high a hurdle for the Spring of Nations.

The British Empire attempted to democratize Arab countries – but failed, due to the lack of essential infrastructure of democratic values and education in Arab lands.

The turmoil in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Oman and Syria (and you ain’t seen nothing yet…), coupled with the expected US evacuation from Iraq and Afghanistan, the Iranian threat and the inherent non-reliability of international or Western guarantees and forces do not usher in Spring; they do usher in lethal geo-political twisters and floods, which require the retaining – and not the giveaway – of critical Israeli security assets.

Massacre in Syria: Dozens killed – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Syrian forces fire at thousands of villagers protesting in Deraa, scores hurt, activists say; official news agency says four soldiers killed in attack on checkpoint in restive city

Reuters

US, EU impose sanctions on Syria – Israel News, Ynetnews.

The United States announced in will imposed new sanctions on Syria over its brutal repression of mass protests, and again singled out Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which it said was aiding the crackdown.

Europe also imposed an arms embargo and considered additional sanctions against Bashar Assad’s government, hardening the international front against Damascus on another day of bloody violence in Syria.

President Barack Obama’s asset freezes and restrictions on financial transactions notably targeted Maher Assad, the powerful brother of the president, who commands Syria’s feared Fourth Armored Division.

Also named in Obama’s executive order enshrining the sanctions were Ali Mamluk, director of Syria’s Intelligence Directorate, and Atif Najib, the ex-head of intelligence in Daraa province, the epicenter of political violence.

The Syrian intelligence directorate as a whole was also targeted by the sanctions, which come after US calls for restraint in Syria went unheeded and as Obama came under increased pressure for a more robust response.

“The United States strongly condemns the Syrian government’s continued use of violence and intimidation against the Syrian people,” the White House said in a statement.

“We call upon the Syrian regime and its supporters to refrain from further acts of violence and other human rights abuses against Syrian citizens seeking to express their political aspirations.”

The statement also singled out Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, saying the Corps was acting as a conduit for material support for the Syrian government which was helping it enforce the crackdown.

“Iran’s actions in support of the Syrian regime place it in stark opposition to the will of the Syrian people,” the White House said.

The Revolutionary Guards have previously been sanctioned by Washington for providing support to terrorism.

The new measures block any property in the United States or in the possession or control of Americans belonging to the named individuals and entities and prevents them entering transactions with US individuals.

State Department Policy Planning Director Jacob J. Sullivan said that Washington was specifically targeting individuals and entities it believed responsible for violence.’

“If they continue this violence…., we have the flexibility to add additional designations,” said Sullivan.

Washington has repeatedly called on Assad to change course, embrace reform and allow Syrians their human and political rights, but has so far not called for Assad to go.

Obama also renewed previously imposed sanctions on Syria, imposed by former president George W. Bush in 2005 as Washington accused Damascus of involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

The sanctions were unveiled as tens of thousands of protesters poured onto the streets across Syria following a call for a “day of rage” against the Assad government after weekly Muslim prayers.

Earlier, the 47-nation UN Human Rights Council voted for a revised US-led resolution on the crackdown in Syria that asked the UN rights chief to send an investigative mission to the country.

The resolution also “unequivocally condemns the use of lethal violence against peaceful protesters by the Syrian authorities… and urges the Syrian government to immediately put an end to all human rights violations.”

It also “requests the office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to urgently dispatch a mission to the Syrian Arab Republic to investigate all alleged violations of international human rights law,” according to the text released by the United Nations.

Twenty-six countries, mainly Western, African and Latin American nations, voted for the text, and nine voted against.

Seven countries abstained, while five were absent at the time of the vote, including Bahrain, Jordan and Qatar.

Iran cleric warns Ahmadinejad not to overestimate his power – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Ahamdinejad is reportedly involved in a dispute with Iran’s clergy for allegedly having ignored the orders of Ayatollah Khamenei over the dismissal of the intelligence chief.

By DPA

A senior Iranian cleric on Friday warned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to overestimate his power.

Ahmadinejad is reportedly involved in a dispute with the country’s clergy for allegedly having ignored the orders Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the dismissal of the intelligence chief.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
	Photo by: AP

According to the Iranian constitution, Khamenei has the final say on all state matters and can even veto decisions by the president on certain cabinet matters.

“The president should know that the majority vote for him was not absolute but conditional on his obedience towards the orders by the supreme leadership,” the influential Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said at the Friday prayer ceremony.

“The top of the system is the constitution, which has clarified the power structure,” said Khatami, who is deputy head of the Experts Assembly, a clergy body.

The controversy started earlier this month after Ahmadinejad dismissed his intelligence chief Heydar Moslehi but faced a veto by Khamenei, who insisted that Moslehi should stay in his post.

Ahmadinejad has not yet reacted to the issue and for more than week has avoided any public appearance and reportedly has not attended the weekly cabinet session.

There are even rumors that Ahmadinejad is at his home in eastern Tehran and no longer at the presidential office and plans to resign.

These rumors have not been officially confirmed but, according to the local press, Ahmadinejad is supposed to hold a speech on state-run television within the next days.

Khamenei last week reiterated his constitutional right to veto any decisions by Ahmadinejad he considered as not being in line with national interests.

The leader firmly supported Ahmadinejad following his 2009 re-election, although the vote itself was overshadowed by fraud charges. Khamenei is reportedly not satisfied by some of the president’s economic and political decisions.

According to observers, one of the main disputes between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is the president’s chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, who has stressed the Iranian rather than the Islamic status of the country.

The clergy reacted with anger to his remarks and also blamed the president for supporting Mashaei, whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad’s son, for his anti-Islamic and nationalistic remarks.

Another controversy is Ahmadinejad’s alleged plan to make Mashaei his successor in the 2013 presidential election. Asked by the local press, Mashaei only said he would comment on the issue when time was ripe.

62 said killed in bloody ‘Day of Rage’ clashes in Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Opposition reports over 50 civilians killed by Syrian authorities in protests throughout the country Friday; Syrian news agency says ‘armed terrorist group’ killed four soldiers; Muslim Brotherhood officially endorses protests.

By Avi Issacharoff and News Agencies Tags: Israel news Bashar Assad

At least 62 protesters were killed in in pro-democracy demonstrations throughout Syria on Friday, including 15 in the south Syrian town of Daraa, according to opposition members.

Casualties have been reported throughout the country in Homs, Latakia and Rastan, in Syria’s latest ‘day of rage’.

	Syrian anti-government protesters holding banners calling for an end to a military siege in Nawa near the southern town of Daraa, on April 28, 2011.
	Photo by: AFP

Earlier Friday, a hospital source reported that Syrian security forces killed 15 villagers at the entrance to the south-Syrian city of Daraa on Friday, saying they received the bodies of the villagers that were riddled with bullets.

A source at the hospital in Tafas, 12 km (8 miles) north west of the city, told Reuters that in addition to those killed, 38 villagers were injured and in hospital.

The official state news agency SANA said an “armed terrorist group” killed four soldiers and kidnapped two others in Daraa where Assad sent tanks and troops to crush resistance on Monday.

Syrian forces fired at thousands on protesters heading for the south Syria city that has become the epicenter of the six-week long protests that are shaking the rule of authoritarian President Bashar Assad, wounding dozens, witnesses said.

Protests erupted throughout Syria on Friday’s ‘day of rage’, defying violent repression which a Syrian rights group says has killed 500 people. The Muslim Brotherhood took an unprecedented step, officially endorsing and participating in demonstrations.

The latest violence broke out after Friday prayers as thousands of people hit the streets across the country demanding Assad’s removal and pledging support for the residents of Daraa, a city of 120,000 where the unrest originated on March 18.

“The people want the overthrow of the regime!” demonstrators chanted in many protests, witnesses said.

About 10,000 Syrians marched in support of Daraa from the old Midan district of Damascus on Friday in the biggest protest in the capital since the mass democracy movement began six weeks ago, rights campaigners said.

The protest, which started from Midan and surrounding districts and grew, was dispersed by security forces firing tear gas at protesters around Mujtahed hospital near the main Umayyad Square, they said.

More demonstrations flared in the central cities of Homs and Hama, Banias and Latakia on the Mediterranean coast, Qamishly in eastern Syria and Harasta, a Damascus suburb.

Al Jazeera television aired footage from the village of Mahala near Daraa and from Banias and Homs. Protesters waved Syrian flags and banners saying: “No to the siege of Daraa,” “A powerful country is the one whose people are free” and “We are preachers of freedom and peace, not saboteurs”.

A witness in Daraa said Syrian forces fired live rounds at thousands of villagers who descended on the besieged city.

“They shot at people at the western gate of Daraa in the Yadoda area, almost three km (two miles) from the center of the city,” he said. Another contacted by phone said he saw dozens who were injured being taken away by protesters in their cars.

A resident of Banias, Abdel Karim, said the demonstrations started from two mosques and were joined by nearby villagers.

A witness in Latakia said about 1,000 people turned out for an anti-government rally when plainclothes security agents with automatic rifles opened fire. He said he saw at least five people wounded. Like many witnesses contacted by The Associated Press, he asked that his name not be used for fear of reprisal.

Syrian state-run TV said one of its cameramen was injured in Latakia during an attack by an armed gang. The government has blamed the unrest on armed gangs – not true reform-seekers.

The government had warned against holding any demonstrations Friday and placed large banners around the capital that read: “We urge the brother citizens to avoid going out of your homes on Friday for your own safety.”

Assad has said the protests – the gravest challenge to his family’s 40-year ruling dynasty – are a foreign conspiracy carried out by extremist forces and armed thugs.

But he has acknowledged the need for reforms, offering overtures of change in recent weeks while brutally cracking down on demonstrations.

Last week, Syria’s Cabinet abolished the state of emergency, in place for decades, and approved a new law allowing the right to stage peaceful protests with the permission of the Interior Ministry.

Separately, the United States and the European Union urged the UN Human Rights Council to investigate possible abuses in Syria and insist that Assad allow in foreign journalists and ease Internet restrictions. Diplomats from Nigeria and China, however, warned that any council action could be interpreted as meddling.

The U.S. and Western diplomats also plan to rally opposition to Syria’s unopposed candidacy to join the 47-nation council.

50 members of Syria’s ruling party in besieged town submit resignation – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Resignation comes on day of rage that left 62 dead; White House calls Assad to ‘change course now,’ saying his actions warrant ‘strong international response.’

By Reuters

At least 50 members of the ruling Ba’ath Party in the besieged Syrian town of Rastan have resigned, a human rights campaigner in contact with the town said on Friday.

The Ba’athists’ resignation declaration was being read out at a demonstration in the town, 20 km north of the city of Homs, when members of military intelligence and gunmen loyal to President Bashar al-Assad fired at the crowd, killing 13 of them, he added.

	In this citizen journalism image made on a mobile phone and acquired by the AP, a Syrian boy carries a banner during an anti-government demonstration in Syria, April 22, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

A resident of Rastan, which has been surrounded by Syrian troops backed by armor for several days, also said that at least 13 people were killed at the demonstration, at which he said people demanded the “overthrow of the regime”.

Casualties have been reported throughout the country in Homs, Latakia and Rastan, in Syria’s latest ‘day of rage’ which left 62 protesters reportedly killed.

Earlier Friday, a hospital source reported that Syrian security forces killed 15 villagers at the entrance to the south-Syrian city of Daraa on Friday, saying they received the bodies of the villagers that were riddled with bullets.

A source at the hospital in Tafas, 12 km (8 miles) north west of the city, told Reuters that in addition to those killed, 38 villagers were injured and in hospital.

The official state news agency SANA said an “armed terrorist group” killed four soldiers and kidnapped two others in Daraa where Assad sent tanks and troops to crush resistance on Monday.

Syrian forces fired at thousands on protesters heading for the south Syria city that has become the epicenter of the six-week long protests that are shaking the rule of authoritarian President Bashar Assad, wounding dozens, witnesses said.

Protests erupted throughout Syria on Friday’s ‘day of rage’, defying violent repression which a Syrian rights group says has killed 500 people. The Muslim Brotherhood took an unprecedented step, officially endorsing and participating in demonstrations.

The latest violence broke out after Friday prayers as thousands of people hit the streets across the country demanding Assad’s removal and pledging support for the residents of Daraa, a city of 120,000 where the unrest originated on March 18.

In light of the ‘day of rage,’ the United Nations Human Rights Council held an emergency session on Friday by request of the United States.

The 47-member forum condemned Syria for using deadly force against peaceful protesters and launched an investigation into killings and other alleged crimes.

It also endorsed a U.S.-sponsored resolution by 26 votes to 9 with 7 abstentions.

“Member states came together to condemn the brutal tactics used by the Assad regime to silence peaceful dissent,” U.S. human rights ambassador Eileen Donahoe said in a statement.

Later Friday, the Whiter House, which issued new sanctions on Syria on Friday, called for President Bashar al-Assad to “change course now.”

“In addition to actions that we are taking, the United States believes that Syria’s deplorable actions toward its people warrant a strong international response,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said in a statement.

Anonymous to target Iran with DoS attack | InSecurity Complex – CNET News.

Anonymous says its next target is Iran.

The hacker group Anonymous has its next denial-of-service (DoS) target in sight: Iran, CNET has learned.

Members of the loosely organized group are planning “Operation Iran,” an attack designed to shut down Iranian Web sites beginning Sunday, according to their latest online proclamation. May 1 is International Worker’s Day.

“The people of Iran have the admiration of Anonymous, and the entire world,” the statement says. “We can see that Iran still suffers at the hands of those in power. Your former government has seized control, and tries to silence you. People of Iran–your rights belong to you.”

The operation seemed to already have begun late today with Web page defacements ostensibly targeted at Iranian hackers. Anonymous left messages on several Web sites that had allegedly been previously attacked by the Iranian Cyber Army, including the site of a Canadian information systems firm and the site of a Ukrainian dancing group, according to an observer on an Anonymous Internet Relay Chat channel that members use to coordinate their operations.

Anonymous is known for its renegade cyberattacks in defense of perceived underdogs or to support freedom of expression or other anti-establishment causes. In defense of whistle-blowing site WikiLeaks, the group targeted PayPal, Visa, MasterCard, and other companies late last year that had stopped enabling WikiLeaks to receive contributions.

Earlier this month, Anonymous targeted Sony in protest of the company’s treatment of Sony PlayStation hacker George Hotz. Hotz and Sony have since settled the lawsuit Sony filed, and Anonymous has denied any involvement in a recent serious breach that exposed information of millions of Sony PlayStation Network customers.

Other Anonymous targets have been: Broadcast Music Inc., the Church of Scientology; the governments of Egypt, Iran, and Sweden; the Westboro Baptist Church; conservative activist billionaires Charles and David Koch and their companies; as well as security firm HBGary Federal, which had reportedly been working with the FBI to identify the leaders of Anonymous.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 27, 2011, 11:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Palestinian reconciliation

The deal initialed by the two rival Palestinian factions, Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah and the Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip in Cairo Wednesday, April 27, hailed by the Israeli media as “historic,” drew an instantaneous critical response from Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu:  “You can’t have peace both with Israel and Hamas,” he warned the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority. It raises concerns about the Palestinian Authority’s weakness and a possible Hamas takeover of Judea and Samaria like the coup it staged in the Gaza Strip, he said. “Hamas aspires to destroy the state of Israel and is quite open about it. Hamas shoots rockets at Israeli cities and our children,” he added.

At least three Fatah-Hamas reconciliation pacts have been signed with loud acclaim in the past, only to crash into oblivion. Netanyahu has himself to blame if the latest draft accord which caught him by surprise survives Palestinian fractiousness and actually produces a transitional government and elections a year hence.

This time, the interests of both Palestinian factions are served: It fulfills PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ ambition to appear before the UN General Assembly in September demanding recognition of Palestinian statehood within the 1967 borders on behalf of a united people. Hamas’ political chief Khaled Meshaal is looking for a new address for his Damascus headquarters away from President Bashar Assad’s bloody crackdown on dissent.
But the deal struck in Cairo Wednesday was galvanized most of all by Netanyahu’s secret track with Washington and Ankara for patching up the Israeli-Turkish quarrel.

debkafile‘s sources report that in quiet shuttles between the offices of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and Netanyahu, unofficial American figures obtained Ankara’s consent to postponing the Gaza-bound flotillas due to sail in the coming months. They are now parked on the Israeli leader’s doorstep for the quid pro quo demanded by the Turks.

The comment by the Hamas official Abu Marzuk on April 14 about a fresh mediation channel for negotiating the release of the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit was in fact a signal from Ankara that Turkey could be helpful on that sensitive issue as well.
While Netanyahu and his advisers believed that their exchanges with the Turkish government had gone unnoticed behind the sound and fury of the Arab revolt, they missed two intent observers: the new Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Alaraby and Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). The two decided to work together on what they reckoned would be the most effective scheme for pulling the rug from under the US-Turkish-Israeli track which left them out in the cold. It entailed a rapid move for getting Fatah-Hamas reconciliation in the bag before anyone realized what was happening.

To attain this goal, Abbas was pressed into major concessions to Hamas. If the initialed pact is finalized and he eventually delivers on those concessions, his dominant position and that of his Fatah on the West Bank will be seriously compromised, not to mention Israeli security interests.

Its terms provide for the two factions to establish a supreme security council with final authority on matters of security. It would override the Palestinian-Israeli coordinating panel operating under US supervision because neither Washington nor Jerusalem would agree to Hamas oversight, even if only indirect, of their security and undercover activity.

Abu Mazen agreed to a full exchange of prisoners, meaning all the Hamas operatives jailed on the West Bank would go free, especially those captured in the last two years as a result of two years of US-Israel-Palestinian counter-terror operations on the West Bank. Their release will make it harder than ever for Netanyahu to argue that he can’t release all the dangerous terrorists Hamas is demanding in return for Gilead Shalit.
Hamas also beat Abbas down on a critical point at issue, that within a year of signing a formal agreement, elections are held for all the Palestinian institutions including the presidency, the legislative council (the Palestinian parliament) and also for PLO institutions.

Hamas will final gain membership of the PLO after being shut out for many years.

Since any Israel-Palestinian peace accord would be with the PLO rather than the Palestinian Authority, the way is opened for the Oslo Interim Peace Accords to be revoked in the same ways as future elections in Egypt would enable a future legislature and administration to revoke the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel.
The draft initialed in Cairo provides for the establishment of a joint transitional government of apolitical technocrats to serve until elections. Ministerial appointments from prime minister down would be subject to the approval of both parties. In other words, Hamas will have veto power over these appointments, which places the continued tenure of the incumbent Prime Minister Salem Fayad in great doubt.

debkafile‘s intelligence sources report that neither Washington nor Ankara, and especially Jerusalem, had the slightest inkling that a Palestinian accord was in the works or achievable at such high speed. They were all caught napping as a result of overconfidence, the absence of strategic forethought and planning and failed intelligence.
Substantial adjustments will have to be made in the three capitals to prepare for the pictures to be broadcast from Cairo next week of Abbas and Khaled Meshal kissing and embracing with Egyptian Foreign Minister al-Arabi, after affixing their signatures to the final version of their accord.

Israel: No talks with Fatah-Hamas government – Israel News, Ynetnews.

In light of truce agreement being formed between rival Palestinian factions, top ministers decide not to hold talks with any government that includes Hamas. ‘If situation changes, Hamas recognizes Israel, then we’ll see,’ says source

Attila Somfalvi

The forum of seven senior ministers decided Thursday it would not hold peace talks with a joint Fatah-Hamas government, which is expected to be established after the two rivals declare reconciliation.

The decision contrasted a statement by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas earlier in the day, who said that his government would continue to pursue peace negotiations with Israel despite the truce agreement.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and the other ministers of the forum held a number of consultations Thursday on developments in the Palestinian Authority’s leadership, at the end of which they decided not to hold talks with any government of which Hamas is a part.

“If the situation changes and Hamas alters its ways and recognizes Israel, then we’ll see,” a political source said. “In the meantime there will be no talks or negotiations with the Palestinians until the picture becomes clearer.”

In an interview with Channel 10 news Thursday evening, Hamas spokesman Mahmoud al-Zahar belittled Israeli intelligence agencies for failing to detect that a deal between the rival factions was in the works.

Al-Zahar described the covert talks in Cairo that led to the deal, which Cabinet ministers have said passed somehow “under the radar”. He said the delegations had visited Cairo, Sudan, and Damascus in the past month.

“In order to refrain from repeating past failures, everything was conducted far from the media’s eye, but it did not come from nowhere,” he said.

  Netanyahu expressed outrage Wednesday with the deal formed in Cairo, and said Abbas must decide on “either peace with us or with Hamas”.

President Shimon Peres also called on Abbas not to sign a deal with Hamas. “The agreement between Fatah and the terrorist organization of Hamas is a fatal mistake which will prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, and destroy the chances of achieving peace and stability in the region,” he said.

Opposition Chairwoman Tzipi Livni expressed reservation about the deal as well. “It is still unclear what the terms of this agreement will be, but the test of the Palestinian government will be the acceptance of the international community’s conditions,” she said. “A Palestinian government will have to accept the Quartet’s conditions if it intends to keep peace with Israel.”

But the Palestinian president said Thursday that “the new government and the peace talks are two different things.” On the case of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, Abbas said that Fatah “expressed sympathy and have spared no efforts in trying to release him. So have the Egyptians. His family is suffering, but please remember that we have 8,000 prisoners. We are not comparing the two cases, but our case is important, too.”