WarSclerotic

Jerusalem Issue Briefs-Can America Block Iran’s Drive for Regional Hegemony?.

Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor

• In the Arab-Israeli conflict, the addition of a religious layer to the conflict is new. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hizbullah are all religiously-based. When one speaks and acts for God, there is no compromise.
• Iran is a nation of merchants, and it needs the world and its financial system. This gives leverage to those who want to do something about its nuclear plans. If there is leadership, resolve, and persistence, with more sanctions, and more partners in the game, there is a chance that Iran will have to rethink its policy. Europe can do more. The volume of trade between certain European countries and Iran remains quite heavy.
• In the end, this battle will determine the standing of the United States and its power and role in the world in the 21st century. I believe that America has enough power to reinvent itself economically and restore the power that it had, but the perception that Iran is spreading is just the opposite.
• Israel is part of the camp that America has been leading for the last 70 years in terms of values, way of life, and democracy. It is important to us that this camp not lose its power in the world, and that is why a strong America is a very clear Israeli interest, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans are in power.

The Paradigm of War Has Changed

Compare the United States with its arsenal and al-Qaeda; of course the United States is much stronger. The Israeli army is much stronger than Hizbullah or Hamas, but the wars with Hizbullah in 2006 and Hamas in 2009 did not end in unconditional surrender of the other side. Success does bring deterrence, but not surrender.

Years ago it was important to know what was happening with your neighbor because he could attack you, but Manhattan was attacked from Afghanistan. The whole world becomes a potential enemy or ally. The modern technological era has reduced the importance of borders for barring information, people, or missiles. Nations can no longer control the flow of information. People are much more powerful, while states are less so. This also means that the bad guys become very potent as well.

This has meant a change in the nature of war. Wars are now fought where everybody sees them in real time on television. This puts limits on what you can do in an open world today. The stronger side becomes weaker because everyone can see what he does, while the weaker side becomes stronger because everyone can see what is done to him. It does not mean that the strong side is bad and the weak side is good, but it changes the nature of war.

The players also now include non-state actors. Most threatening to some Arab regimes is the Al-Jazeera television channel. Other important actors that are not states include the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Islamic Jihad, Hizbullah, and Hamas.

Another new factor is a return to religion in the Muslim world, as in other parts of the world. If you ask people how they identify themselves, in the past you would hear many people speak of their Arab identity as their first identity. Today more people will say that they are first of all Muslim. The Taliban, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hizbullah are all religiously-based. When one speaks and acts for God, there is no compromise. In the Arab-Israeli conflict, the addition of this religious layer to the conflict is new. Egypt’s Nasser never said that he fights for Allah against the Jews, nor did the Syrians or Jordanians. Now one hears from Iran, Hizbullah, and Hamas that there cannot be a non-Muslim state here.

The Iran-America Conflict

The most important conflict that is developing in the world today is the Iran-America conflict over the nuclearization of Iran. If Iran does go nuclear, this will have implications for the world order as we know it. First, it may spell the end of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. Some countries, such as Egypt, have said that if Iran goes nuclear, they would too. Others may do it without saying it. In a world in which more countries are going nuclear, rather than giving up on nuclear weapons or playing within the rules, the ability of the superpowers to intervene will be harder and perhaps non-existent.

The alliance between the West and the Arab Gulf area states has been based on those states giving access to oil – a key element in the world economy. At the same time, the West/America is leading the defense of those regimes against radical movements. Those countries have been concerned with Iranian nuclearization, which would mean Iranian hegemony, coupled with the declared Iranian policy of exporting its revolution. If America and the West cannot protect them, they might go along with Iran. Think of a world where Iran and its allies have such an influence over the price of oil.

Out of the 1.4 billion Muslims, the vast majority want, like every human being, a good life and stability, although not necessarily democracy. Yet in all these societies there are minority groups that want to destabilize this way of life and create something new and more religiously observant, as they understand it. They are fighting a battle against Western ideas, such as equality of women, and against basic freedoms, such as freedom of speech. All of them are looking at the Iran-America conflict to see who will win. A victory for Iran is a victory for all these groups. Think of how arrogant Hizbullah may become if Iran wins over America. Think of how arrogant Hamas will be vis-à-vis the PLO.

Iran has added the religious element to the conflict in a very detrimental way, playing its hand through the proxies it has in this area. Hizbullah is a unique phenomenon,  a Lebanese party that is also Syrian and Iranian. Hizbullah leader Nasrallah calls himself the personal emissary of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Here you see more evidence of a change from a national to a religious identification. Nasrallah is an Arab and Lebanese by nationality, and a close friend and military ally of a non-Arab, non-Lebanese, Persian Iranian called Ahmadinejad, fighting against other Arabs and Lebanese. This is because Nasrallah and his followers are first and foremost Shiites, which is more important to them than all the other components.

Iran and Syria support Hizbullah with weapons systems, intelligence, training, and an ideology of delegitimizing and liquidating Israel. Hizbullah has 50,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel from the north, more than any other country in the world. Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, which are Sunni, have more than 5,000 rockets aimed at Israel, some of them from Iran and Syria.

Preventing Iranian Hegemony

What is the exact point at which we say that Iran is nuclear? Every day of enrichment, Iran gets closer to its goal. Every day in which they build more missiles with which to launch warheads, they get closer. Every day they proceed with the weaponization process, they get closer. It has not happened as quickly and as successfully as they wanted it to happen, but the world needs to act so that the world order is not totally undermined by an Iranian nuclear capability as well as its possible hegemony within the Muslim world.

This ongoing battle between America and its allies and Iran is of major importance to all of us. We should not ask others to fight for us. However, if there is real world interest in stopping Iranian hegemony and its nuclear capability, then they may do something about it in time.

As the Iranians continue with their nuclear plans, they defy the West, the UN, and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran is an ancient nation with a proud history and culture. It is a nation of merchants, and it needs the world and its financial system. This gives leverage to those who want to do something about its nuclear plans. Last year we began seeing some steps that were quite important: UN sanctions, EU sanctions, and U.S. sanctions.

If there is leadership, resolve, and persistence, with more sanctions, and more partners in the game, there is a chance that Iran will have to rethink its policy. The United States has been quite successful in getting the Russians on board for the UN resolution. Somewhat reluctantly, even the Chinese got on board. Europe appears determined in declaring the importance of putting an end to the Iranian attempt to go nuclear, but Europe can do more. The volume of trade between certain European countries and Iran remains quite heavy. An organized world has the ability to act in a concerted manner to make it clear to Iran that it needs to change its policy.

In the end, this battle will determine not only the standing of Iran, but, to a large extent, the standing of the United States and its power and role in the world in the 21st century. Iran says that America is an empire of the past, and that the American economy, the bedrock of American strength, is weak. I believe that America has enough power to reinvent itself economically and restore its power, but the perception that Iran is spreading is just the opposite.

Israel did not need WikiLeaks to know what some neighboring regimes think of Iran. In meetings with an important American politician who was in Israel after having visited six or seven Arab countries regarding the Palestinian-Israeli issue, he said that on average each meeting was 10 percent about the Palestinian issue and 90 percent about Iran. If the countries which oppose Iran get weaker, it is better for Iran. Egypt was one of those countries which stood against Iran with the West. We do not want to see the strengthening of the radical axis and the weakening of the moderate axis.

The role of the free world is to support the Iranian opposition. Not that support will immediately bring them victory, but support is the main source of their confidence in the possibility of victory. Many people who lived in the Soviet Union and fought against the Soviet regime to let the Jews out have said that as long as nobody in the world knew about them, from the time of Stalin to Brezhnev, there was little chance of success. When the world started to know and react, the Jews knew there was a chance of success and this reinforced their struggle.

A Strong America is a Very Clear Israeli Interest

It is important that Iran’s perception does not gain a hold on the thinking of people in the Middle East and around the world. If America takes an openly stated, clear lead and coalesces with its natural partners in this campaign, this can improve America’s role in the world order that all of us want to see. Even though we all have different state interests, we are part of the camp that America has been leading for the last 70 years in terms of values, way of life, and democracy. It is important to us that this camp not lose its power in the world, and that is why a strong America is a very clear Israeli interest, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans are in power.

Negotiating with Syria?

Syria is the main political ally of Iran in the Arab world. I am one of those few Israelis who think that we should negotiate with Syria, not that I like what the Syrian regime is doing. Will there be an agreement in the end? I know what they want from me, but what I want from them is a full peace, like Jordan and Egypt. They must stop the support of terror organizations, including Hizbullah, and cut away from the Iranian axis. It  is an open question whether we can get all of this. It has to do with the strength of America and Iran. There is not just an Israeli-Syrian closed circle; there is a bigger circle of power relationships that needs to be taken into account.

*     *     *

Dan Meridor was first elected to the Knesset in 1994, serving continuously until 2003. During this period he served as Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, twice as Minister of Justice, Minister of Finance and Minister without Portfolio in charge of the intelligence community. Upon returning to the Knesset in 2009, he was appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy. This Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on his presentation to the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs on February 3, 2011.

Hamas makes rare appeal to Israel to halt fighting – KFVS12 News & Weather Cape Girardeau, Carbondale, Poplar Bluff.

Posted: Apr 10, 2011 7:57 AM JDT Updated: Apr 10, 2011 4:38 PM JDT

The Iranian Armageddon – OpEd « Eurasia Review.

Written by: Alan Caruba

April 10, 2011

In the months and years leading up to the beginning of World War Two, all the parties knew full well Hitler’s intention to start a war. When he struck a deal with Stalin to divide Poland, the die was cast. The invasion came in September 1939. Previously, diplomats had met with the Nazis to offer them the former Czechoslovakia and turned a blind eye to other provocative events.

World War Two was preceded by Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” that spelled out his plans for Europe’s Jews and the torrent of lies that led to war and the genocide that became known as the Holocaust.

It is not surprising that history is repeating itself as in the case of an April 7 letter to The Wall Street Journal by Alireza Miryousefi of the Iranian Mission to the U.N. “There is no evidence of any military diversion” in Iran’s nuclear facilities claimed Mr. Miryousefi, who went on to assert that “the real threat of nuclear proliferation” was Israel which he described as “the Zionist regime.”

Despite Iran’s support for two terrorist organizations, Hezbollah and Hamas, it was Israel, said Mr. Miryousefi, that was “the biggest terrorist and apartheid regime.”

Today, everyone knows the Iran’s crazed ayatollahs intend to secure nuclear weapon capability and everyone knows that, when they do, they will attack Israel with them. They have never ceased to call for its destruction. It is not a question of if, but when.

How close is “when”? The Iranians just released a video titled “The Coming is Near” that describes the current events in the Middle East as the prelude to the coming of the Twelfth Imam, the Mahdi, a figure particular to the Shiite branch of Islam and one that Islamic scriptures say will lead the armies of Islam to victory over all non-Muslims in the last days.

In a nuclear age, as Nikita Krushchev, a former Premier of the Soviet Union, once said, “The living will envy the dead.” Those were the days of the Cold War and, with both the U.S. and Russia possessing nukes, the concept of mutually assured destruction, MAD, was understood. This, however, does not apply to the ayatollahs. They need massive destruction to bring about their Islamic End Times scenario.

Iran

In a recent Wall Street Journal interview with Bernard Lewis, the West’s leading scholar on the Middle East, he pointed out that the mullahs “are religious fanatics with an apocalyptic mindset. In Islam, as in Christianity and Judaism, there is an end-of-times scenario—and they think it’s beginning or has already begun.”

The result, said Lewis, is that “mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent—it’s an inducement.”

In the days leading up to World War Two, the diplomatic choice was appeasement. Today, hope is that the mullahs can be deterred long enough that Iranians will somehow bring about regime change from within. The computer virus, Stuxnet, had the affect of interfering with the enrichment process necessary to weaponize uranium, but may not now be a factor.

In the meantime, the Gulf Cooperation Council, composed of six GCC states are discussing a proposal to identify and deport an estimated 20,000 Shiites linked to Iran. In Kuwait the plan would focus on Lebanese Shiites with links to Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

It is believed that many Iranian agents have been activated this year and, as such, pose a security threat. Said one GCC insider, “For years, the GCC knew of these people, but looked the other way. We can’t look the other way anymore.”

The news, unfortunately, just keeps getting worse and worse. In the muddle that represents the effort to overthrow Libya’s Gadhafi, DebkaFile reports that the “rebels” have sold thousands of chemical shells found in Benghazi to Hezbollah and Hamas, two puppet organizations funded by Iran.

When you add to that the thousands of rockets cached in Lebanon by Hezbollah and the rocketing that has been reinstituted from Gaza by Hamas, you have a trigger for a wider war.

Specifically, you have the elements of the destruction of Israel by the Iranians and the so-called Palestinians, a stateless group that have been the pawns of Iran and Arab nations for more than six decades.

In late March, Senators Mark Kirk (R-Ill) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) were joined by twenty-five other Senators who sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asking her to identify specific steps the administration is taking to press the Palestinian Authority to end the “dangerous incitement against Jews and Israel.” The letter was sent in the wake of the terrorist murder of the Fogel family in Itamar and a bombing of a civilian bus in Jerusalem. A school bus has since been attacked.

You don’t have to be a CIA analyst to know that events in the Middle East will be exploited by the Iranians to bring about their apocalyptic End Times aspirations and that the destruction of Israel is, in their view, the trigger. After Israel, the United States and Europe will be next.

Analysis: Iron Dome changes the Gaza equation.

On Sunday, schoolchildren go on their annual Pessah vacation, and the real countdown begins – to end the current round of violence between Israel and Hamas before the start of the holiday.

The IDF had prepared for this current round and accurately predicted that it would take place after it bombed the car in southern Gaza last Friday night, killing three senior Hamas operatives who were planning attacks against Israelis in Sinai. The answer came on Thursday with the anti-tank missile that hit the school bus near Kibbutz Sa’ad.

The IDF has been warning for several months of the growing rift within Hamas between the political echelon, led by Ismail Haniyeh, and the military wing, led by Ahmed Jabari.

Haniyeh and the rest of the Hamas government are mostly interested in solidifying their regime, and are currently more concerned about the possibility that the unrest in the Arab world will spread to Gaza than they are with Israel. For this reason, Hamas has cracked down hard in recent weeks on any signs of demonstrations and, like Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, has not hesitated to use brutal force to quell the riots.

Jabari has other interests.

First, he apparently felt the need to avenge the Israeli strike against his fellow Hamas operatives. It didn’t help that one of the men killed in last week’s strike was a personal friend of his.

Secondly, he has prevented his fighters from using their weaponry against Israel since Operation Cast Lead two years ago, allowing Islamic Jihad to steal most of the show and gain prominence as an up-and-coming organization and power player in the Gaza Strip. His subordinates have felt real frustration.

After all, they smuggled powerful and high-quality weaponry into Gaza, but were not allowed to use it.

There are two main differences between this current escalation and the one that led to Operation Cast Lead two years ago.

First, Israel is not agreeing so quickly to a cease-fire, and has made clear that it will not accept one in which Hamas fires rockets and Israel refrains from firing back.

“It will either have to be a full cease-fire, or nothing,” a senior defense official explained Saturday night.

The second difference is the successful operation of the Iron Dome counter-rocket system.

Many people from within and outside the defense establishment had questioned its capabilities.

They were wrong. Based on the 10 interceptions since Thursday, Iron Dome works.

While it does not intercept every rocket fired into Israel, that is because it is designed to intercept only those set to strike populated areas. If the system detects a rocket falling in an open field, it will not fire an interceptor. At the same time, there are still only two batteries – deployed outside Beersheba and Ashkelon, respectively – hardly enough to provide an adequate defense for southern Israel.

Nevertheless, this does provide Israeli leaders with unprecedented diplomatic maneuverability.

While rockets are hitting within Israel, the damage and number of casualties is lower than it would have been in the past, due to Iron Dome. This means the government does not feel as much domestic pressure to launch a larger offensive against Hamas, and can consider its options more slowly and more carefully.

It also means that the government feels it can continue to strike at terrorists it detects in Gaza, even at the risk of more rocket attacks.

The clock will be ticking, though, with Seder night approaching. What will likely happen is that Israel and Hamas will try to find a way to end this cycle before it escalates any further, so Israelis can celebrate Pessah and Jabari and his men can go back to the drawing board and plan for tomorrow.

Syrian tanks deploy in force to deter more unrest.

By OREN KESSLER AND REUTERS
04/10/2011 13:42

Live ammo, tear gas used to disperse thousands; several youths injured; crackdown comes amid reports of at least 37 killed over weekend.

Syrian tanks deployed overnight in flashpoint areas, residents said on Sunday, in an effort to prevent further outbreaks of pro-democracy unrest, intensifying a crackdown on mass protests now in their fourth week.

On Saturday, Syrian security forces opened fire on mourners near a mosque in the flashpoint city of Deraa after a mass funeral for pro-democracy protesters, two witnesses said.

That clash came a day after at least 37 people were killed nationwide, Syrian rights groups said, in the largest and deadliest rallies since the unrest began three weeks ago.

The National Organization for Human Rights in Syria said 26 protesters were killed in Deraa on Friday, after earlier reporting the deaths had occurred on Saturday.

A statement on its website on Sunday listed the names of 26 people killed in Deraa and two in Homs, and also provided the names of 13 people arrested over the last 10 days.

State television said armed groups had killed 19 policemen and wounded 75 in the city.
Syria has prevented international news media from reporting from Deraa and mobile phones lines there appeared to be cut.

On Saturday, security forces used live ammunition and tear gas to disperse thousands of people chanting freedom slogans after assembling near the old Omari mosque in the old quarter of the city, near the border with Jordan and the Golan Heights, the witnesses said.

The Guardian website posted a mobile-phone video shot on Friday in the Syrian city of Homs showing protesters chanting in support of the people of Deraa, calling Syrian President Bashar Assad a “coward” and urging him to direct his soldiers toward the Israeli-held Golan Heights rather than at fellow Syrians.

Residents in the coastal city of Latakia said security forces used live ammunition on Saturday to disperse hundreds of people, causing scores of injuries and possible deaths.

Richard Haass, president of the New York-based Council for Foreign Relations, wrote on Thursday on Time magazine’s website: “Syria could well be ripe for upheaval. Like Egypt and Libya, it has been run by a single family, one that lacks the legitimacy of a bona fide monarchy, for 40 years. And like Bahrain, Syria is ruled by a minority: its controlling elite (the Alawi sect of Shi’ite Islam) represents less than 15 percent of the total population of just over 22 million.”

But Haass, a former high-level US State Department and National Security Council official, wrote that Libya-style intervention was out of the question, as neither the international community nor the Arab states would support such a move. Nor, Haass wrote, would Israel.

“The two countries are sworn enemies, and Syria is close to Israel’s deadliest foes: Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran,” he wrote. “But for all that, the border between the two countries remains mostly quiet.

While Israelis would welcome a European-style democracy for a neighbor, they fear Bashar would more likely be succeeded by radical Islamists. As they say in Tel Aviv, ‘Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.’” European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton condemned the violence on Saturday, urging Syria to implement substantive political reform.

“The Syrian people must be allowed to express their grievances without fear of intimidation, repression and arrest. Meaningful political reforms guaranteeing freedom of expression, fundamental rights and the rule of law must begin now,” she said.

Syria’s National Organization for Human Rights said 30 people had been killed on Friday in Deraa, the epicenter of protests, three in the central city of Homs and four in the Damascus suburbs of Harasta and Douma.

Kurdish activists said rallies were held in Syria’s northeastern Kurdish region, a day after Assad offered citizenship to an unspecified number of Kurds.

“The citizenship gesture only helped fuel the street [protests]. The Kurdish cause is one for democracy, freedom and cultural identity,” Hassan Kamel, a senior member of the Democratic Kurdish Party in Syria, told Reuters.

Activists and witnesses said thousands of mostly young Kurds marched in the northeastern city of Qamishli on Friday chanting: “No Kurd, no Arab, the Syrian people are one,” and “We salute the martyrs of Deraa.”

Foreign Minister Walid Muallem told ambassadors in Damascus that “subversive elements infiltrated the protesters and opened fire on the police and the protesters to drag the country into violence and cause chaos.”

The Interior Ministry accused “plotters pushed by known foreign sides” of firing at protesters to create a rift between people and police. “[They] have infiltrated the ranks of the demonstrators to sow discord between the citizens and the security forces. There is no more room for leniency or tolerance in enforcing law…

“We will not allow sabotage… and damage to national unity,” the ministry said. “Syrian authorities, in order to preserve the security of the country, citizens and the governmental and services establishments, will confront these people and those behind them according to the law.”

Osman Mirghani, editor-at-large of the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, wrote on Thursday that attributing popular unrest to Israeli intervention “is an insult to the people and their demands for freedom and dignity.

“What Israel fears the most is Washington moving closer to Arab states in order to support the democratic transformation, and putting pressure on Tel Aviv to put forward a serious initiative to move the stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace process,” Mirghani wrote.

“Israel would rather deal with individuals or despotic regimes, rather than democratic regimes that respond to the voters’ opinions and public pressure, particularly after it has seen that the peace agreements that were signed with Egypt and Jordan have failed to result in complete normalization of relations due to the opposition of public opinion,” he wrote. “Israel prefers stability and the status quo, because it has already adapted itself to the peace equation with the existing despotic regimes, rather than the people of the region.”

PM: Iron Dome isn’t a complete solution to Gaza attacks.

By JPOST.COM STAFF
04/10/2011 11:34

Security establishment says US to transfer additional $205m. for more Iron Dome batteries; Netanyahu promises “much harsher” response if citizens attacked; Grad intercepted near Ashkelon, Kassam explodes in Eshkol.

Yaakov Katz contributed to this report.

Saudi Columnist: The Alliance Between Hamas and Iran is Hurting Arabs.