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DEBKAfile Special Report March 19, 2011, 5:21 PM (GMT+02:00)

French Mirage, Rafale fighters fly over Beghanzi

debkafile‘s special sources report that French warplanes went into attack formation over Libya Saturday afternoon without waiting for the 22 world powers meeting in Paris to finish talking about military action against Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi. It was agreed that France, Britain, Norway, Qatar and Canada would take part in the offensive with 31 targets planned for first stage, 2 military airfields and Qaddafi’s palace in the second and Libyan forces in the third.
The coalition of powers plans to expand its operations in the next 24 hours and then wait for Qaddafi to respond.
The Libyan ruler last week threatened retaliation against the military and civilian targets of any nations attacking him in Europe and the Middle East. Saturday, he warned the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British premier David Cameron they would regret leading the group attacking his country.

Western intelligence experts calculate that he may he decide to strike back at French and British Middle East targets by air might, missiles and special forces, as well possibly as hitting civilian locations inside France. If this happens, the Americans are expected to join the anti-Qaddafi operation using their naval and air forces.
debkafile‘s military sources report that the Libyan ruler extensively prepared himself for attack in recent weeks, scattering his warplanes and ground forces in desert hideouts to minimize their vulnerability.
He, his family and elite officials have most likely gone to ground in secret hideouts.

In the last month, he bought up vast quantities of anti-air and other missile systems and sophisticated electronic hardware in order to withstand the offensive against him.

Sarkozy: Western forces have begun military action in Libya – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

French president says allied planes preventing air attacks by Gadhafi forces on rebel stronghold Benghazi, adds that action could be halted if Gadhafi stopped his forces attacking.

By News Agencies

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Western air forces, with Arab League approval, had gone into action on Saturday over Libya and were preventing Muammar Gadhafi’s forces attacking the rebel city of Benghazi.

“As of now, our planes are preventing air attacks on the city of Benghazi,” he said adding that military action supported by France, Britain, the United States and Canada and backed by Arab nations could be halted if Gadhafi stopped his forces attacking. French planes were also ready to strike Libyan tanks.

“It’s a grave decision we’ve had to take,” Sarkozy said after meeting British Prime Minister David Cameron, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other leaders in Paris.

“Along with our Arab, European and North American partners, France has decided to play its part before history.”

	An undated image made available by the Ministry of Defence in London, shows a Tornado GR4 of the Royal Air Force, one of the types of aircraft designated to take part in no-fly zone over Libya.
	Photo by: AP

Sarkozy said of the meeting: “Those taking part agreed to put in place all necessary means, especially military, to enforce the decisions of the United Nations Security Council.

“This is why, in agreement with our partners, our air forces will counter any aggression by Colonel Gadhafi’s aircraft against the population of Benghazi,” he said.

“As of now, other French aircraft are ready to intervene against armored vehicles which threaten unarmed civilians.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who opposes military action, was also present and said afterward that Berlin also agreed that violence in Libya must end.

Sarkozy, briefing reporters but taking no questions, said: “Colonel Gadhafi has scorned our warnings. In the past few hours his forces have intensified their murderous offensive.”

“The Libyan people need our aid and support. It’s our duty,” Sarkozy said.

“In Libya, a peaceful civilian population that is seeking only to be able to choose its own destiny has found itself in mortal danger. It’s our duty to respond to their appeal,” he said.

“Today we are intervening in Libya under the UN mandate with our partners and notably our Arab partners. We are doing it to protect the civilian population from the murderous madness of a regime that in killing its own people has lost all legitimacy.

“There is still time for Colonel Gadhafi to avoid the worst, by acting without delay and without reservations in accordance with all the demands of the international community. The door of international diplomacy will open again the moment attacks end.”

Syrian mourners call for revolt – Middle East – Al Jazeera English.

Israel lodges formal complaint with UN over barrage of Gaza mortars – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In message to UN, Lieberman warns against supporting a future Palestinian ‘terrorist state who’s first and foremost goal is the destruction of Israel.’

By Barak Ravid, Jonathan Lis and Haaretz Service

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman instructed Israel’s United Nations envoy to lodge a formal complaint with the organization after Israel was hit by over 50 mortars fired from Gaza on Saturday morning.

Two people were lightly wounded and a home was damaged by the mortars. Hamas has claimed responsibility for 10 of the mortars.

Lieberman, in a message to the UN, warned that a future Palestinian state would be a “terrorist state who’s first and foremost goal is the destruction of Israel.”

The offensive from Gaza took place while “Hamas and the Palestinian Authority were talking about reunification,” Lieberman’s message said.

In the past week, there have been rallies in Hamas-ruled Gaza and Fatah-ruled West Bank calling for Palestinian reunification. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas announced two days ago that he intends to go to Gaza to end the more than three years of internal division between his Fatah party and Hamas.

Liberman wrote that the talk of reunification during the barrage of rockets shows that “the international support that the Palestinians are trying to garner would be support for the creation of a terrorist state.”

The Palestinians have been pressing leaders worldwide to recognize an independent Palestinian state, an issue they plan on bringing to a vote at September’s United Nations General Assembly.

Other Israeli officials also responded harshly to Saturday’s bombardment, with Kadima head Tzipi Livni saying that “the right way to contend with Hamas is with force.”

Likud MK Danny Danon said it was up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to respond harshly to the morning’s offensive.

50 mortars fired into Israel, 2 injured; IDF strikes Gaza.

Civilian areas in southern Israel were heavily shelled by Palestinian terrorists in Gaza on Saturday morning, when more than 50 mortars were fired at the regional councils of Sha’ar Hanegev, Eshkol and Sdot Hanegev.

Two Israelis sustained light injuries by shrapnel and were transferred to Soroka Hospital in Beersheba.

Hamas’ armed wing, the Izzadin Kassam Brigades, claimed responsibility for a dozen of the mortars fired.

The IDF responded to the barrage of mortars with tank shells and helicopter strikes. Six Palestinians were reportedly injured in the strikes.

Following the attacks, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman instructed diplomats in New York to lodge a complaint with the United Nations over the mortar barrage.

One building sustained extensive damage in the Eshkol Regional Council although a majority of the projectiles landed in open areas, local officials reported.

The regional council is inhabited predominantly by farmers, and has been the target of Palestinian shelling for several years.

Eyal Brandeis, a kibbutz secretary in the Eshkol Regional Council, and the head of a local emergency response team, told The Jerusalem Post that the injured were a married couple who had been attempting to seek cover in a safe zone – a room reinforced with concrete to protect from projectiles.

“It happened just as they entered the room. The couple were responding to instructions we sent out on cell phone text messages calling on all residents to seek shelter. They ran to the room, and shrapnel went through the window just before they could close it,” Brandeis said.

The man suffered shrapnel injuries to his back, while the woman was injured in her hand, Brandeis added. The couple received medical attention on the spot before being evacuated by Magen David Adom paramedics to the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheva for further treatment.

“We are used to sporadic rocket and mortar fire, but this was not the daily show we are used to,” Brandais said, referring to the high number of mortars fired at his community on Saturday. “Luckily, we escaped with few injuries. We’ll have to get through this,” he added.

Southern communities cannot be alerted to mortars by the Color Red rocket alert system and have developed their own cell phone text messaging alert system. “When we heard the high number of explosions across the area, we knew this was not an ordinary attack,” he said.

Ronit Minaker, a spokeswoman for the Eshkol Regional Council, said residents had been ordered to stay indoors for the duration of the morning. “People were compliant with the safety instructions,” she said.

“We’re not used to this kind of massive fire. But we have experienced it before, and we know how to respond,” Minaker added.

“Our residents expect the government to do everything it can to end this. They also expect the government to construct safe rooms in the many communities that still lack them,” she said.

Local authorities said on Saturday that they were in the midst of a legal campaign aimed at forcing the government to deploy the Iron Dome anti-rocket and anti-mortar shield.

Officials are petitioning the Supreme Court to order the state to deploy the shield to protect communities situated at least 4.5 kilometers away from the border and beyond. The system is unable to neutralize projectiles fired at communities up to 4.5 kilometers from the border.

The Supreme Court has ordered the state to reply to the petition within 30 days.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 19, 2011, 12:27 PM (GMT+02:00)

IDF shows Iranian arms bound for Gaza

Israeli civilians living around the Gaza border woke up Saturday, March 19, to the most massive mortar attack in years – 50 rounds fired in 15 minutes. Two civilians were injured and substantial damage caused to property. Hamas unusually claimed responsibility, emboldened by the support it has won from a new ally, the new rulers of Cairo, which have now lined up with Syria and Iran.

The Netanyahu government has not informed the Israeli public about the ominous new winds blowing in fromCairo although they are already in motion: Cairo has given Hamas rule of the Gaza Strip de facto recognition, is about to lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip and is forging new understandings with Damascus and the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad radicals based there.

The Egyptian military which has taken over in Cairo also turned a blind eye to at least two or three Iranian arms ships which, prior to the capture of the A.S. Victoria last week,  made it through the Israeli sea blockade and delivered weapons, including C-704 shore-to-sea missiles at El Arish. Hamas will be free to go out and collect them through the reopened Rafah crossing.
It is now obvious that Cairo’s permission for two Iranian warships to transit the Suez Canal on Feb. 22, knowing that at least one was laden with weapons for extremists, was in line with the new Egyptian policy.

Israel had earlier allowed two Egyptian mechanized infantry brigades to enter Sinai and deploy along its Mediterranean coast, although this opened up the demilitarization clause of the 1979 peace treaty. Israel expected these troops to guard the gas pipeline carrying gas to Israel and Jordan and block the Iranian arms deliveries to Hamas. But this did not happen.
This week, spokesmen on behalf of the pipeline company announced that Egyptian gas was again flowing. It was not. After Israel appealed to the White House and the heads of the Senate and House foreign relations committees to intercede with Egypt, just a trickle of gas reached the pipeline on the pretext that the pipeline needed testing after it was blown up by Hamas on Feb. 5.

The Egyptian charade is ably supported by the Israeli government and its defense spokesmen, who keep on assuring everyone that nothing has changed in Egyptian-Israeli peace relations.
According to debkafile‘s Cairo sources, the live wire behind the Egyptian policy U-turn is the new foreign minister Nabil Alaraby. Only two weeks on the job, the first tasks he set himself were to lift the Egyptian-Israeli embargo on the Gaza Strip, reopen the Fatah crossing to free passage of people and goods, downgrade relations with Israel and the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas, and open a new page with Syria.

During the two days US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spent in Cairo (March 15-16), the Egyptian Supreme Military Council sent the Mahabharat (Secret Service) chief Gen. Mourad Mwafi to Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad received him for a long conversation Friday, March 19, on the third day of his visit.

Thursday, the Egyptian general met Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal. He was not put off by Meshaal’s participation in the Iran-backed Islamist radical summit in Khartoum in the first week of March and its approval of two missions – to bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Cairo and to step up terrorist attacks on Israel.
So far, Israeli forces have had no success in tracking down the Hamas perpetrators of the vicious murders of five family members at Itamar on March 11. Considering the precipitous downturn in Israel’s political and military situation and the ostrich-like reactions of its leaders, it looks very much as though Hamas is now dictating Israel’s security agenda. Hamas, backed to the hilt by Iran, Syria and now Egypt, feels it can safely intensify its warfare on Israel without being slapped down.

Israel Now Has The Right To Attack Iran’s Nuclear Reactors :: Hudson New York.

by Alan M. Dershowitz
March 17, 2011 at 3:30 am

Iran’s recent attempt to ship arms to Hamas in Gaza is an act of war committed by the Iranian government against the Israeli government. The Israeli Navy seized the ship, loaded with weapons designed to kill Israeli civilians, and traced the weapons back to Iran. Nor is this the first act of war that would justify a military response by Israel under international law. Iran has sent other boatloads of anti personnel weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah. In addition, back in 1992, the Iranian leaders planned and authorized a deadly attack on Israel’s embassy in Argentina. That bombing, which was carried out by Iranian agents, constituted a direct armed attack on the state of Israel, since its embassy is part of its sovereign territory. Moreover, the Iranian government has publicly declared war on Israel by calling for it “to be wiped off the map.”

Under international law, these acts of war—known as Casus Belli—fully justify an Israeli armed response. Even the UN Charter authorizes a unilateral response to an armed attack. Providing weapons to a declared enemy in the face of an embargo has historically been deemed an armed attack under the law of war, especially when those providing the weapons intend for them to be used against the enemy’s civilians. So too is the bombing of an embassy.

Two other recent events enhance Israel’s right use military means to prevent Iran from continuing to arm Israel’s enemies. The recent disaster in Japan has shown the world the extraordinary dangers posed by nuclear radiation. If anybody ever doubted the power of a dirty bomb to devastate a nation, both physically and psychologically, those doubts have been eliminated by what is now going on in Japan. If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, the next ship destined to Gaza might contain a nuclear dirty bomb and Israel might not intercept that one. A dirty bomb detonated in tiny Israel would cause incalculable damage to civilian life.

Moreover, the recent killings in Itamar of a family including three children, demonstrate how weapons are used by Israel’s enemies against civilians in violation of the laws of war. Even babies are targeted by those armed by Iran. Hamas praised the murders.

Israel has the right to prevent its civilians from being murdered by Iranian weapons, especially weapons of mass destruction. Iran would have no legal standing to protest a surgical attack on its nuclear facilities that are designing weapons that could be used to achieve Iran’s declared goal of wiping Israel off the map and killing millions of its citizens. The leaders of Iran have publicly declared that a nuclear exchange, killing millions of Jews and Muslims, would be acceptable to them because it would destroy Israel while only damaging Islam. A suicide nation cannot be deterred by the threat of retaliation. Israel’s only realistic option may be a preventive military strike of the kind it conducted against Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981. That surgical attack may have saved countless lives at the cost of one single casualty. By the way, Iran too tried to destroy Iraq’s nuclear reactor, but failed. Certainly Israel has the right to do what Iran itself tried to do—namely prevent a lethal enemy from developing weapons capable of mass murder of its citizens.

This is not to say that Israel should attack Iran’s nuclear reactors now. That is has the right to do so does not mean that it should not wait for a more opportune time. The law of war does not require an immediate military response to an armed attack. The nation attacked can postpone its counterattack without waiving its right. The military option should always be a last resort after all other efforts have failed. It may well be that efforts to permanently disable Iran’s nuclear computers will succeed. Although it is unlikely that economic sanctions will ever persuade Iran’s ideological zealots to end their nuclear weapons program, a combination of quasi military, tough economic and diplomatic sanctions may slow it down to a point where the military option can be postponed. But under no circumstances should the military option ever be taken off the table. Israel must preserve its ability to exercise its fundamental right of preventive self defense. If possible, it should act together with other allies. But if necessary, it has the right to act alone to protect its citizens. Nearly everybody hopes that it won’t come to that, but hope is not a policy. As George Washington cautioned in his second inaugural address, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”

Israel to include weapons ship in UN panel on Iran arms smuggling – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Officials to discuss recently seized ship ‘Victoria’ during a UN review of the implementation of Resolution 1747, which forbids Iran to export arms.

By Anshel Pfeffer and Barak Ravid

The Foreign Ministry plans to file a complaint to the UN Security Council’s sanctions committee over Iran’s efforts to smuggle arms to the Gaza Strip.

On Wednesday, the navy showed off the arms it seized aboard the Victoria on Tuesday. The ship was intercepted en route from Syria to Egypt, whence the arms were slated to be smuggled overland to Hamas in Gaza.

	IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz, right, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak inspecting the haul of weapons discovered aboard an Egypt-bound vessel that was seized by naval
	Photo by: Nir Kafri

Also Wednesday, the air force attacked a Hamas training facility in Gaza. Palestinians said the attack killed two members of the Islamist organization.

Over the coming days, the Foreign Ministry plans to give the sanctions committee all the information in Israel’s possession about Iran’s involvement in the Victoria. It will argue that this was a gross violation of Security Council Resolution 1747, which forbids Iran to export arms.

Today, the committee will hear a survey of Iranian arms smuggling efforts worldwide. Foreign Ministry sources said that over the last half year, at least five Iranian arms shipments have been seized: in Nigeria, Afghanistan, Italy, the Mediterranean Sea and Southeast Asia.

Israel also wants the Security Council to discuss Iranian arms smuggling to Hamas and Hezbollah at its monthly meeting on the Middle East next week.

The 50 tons of arms seized from the Victoria were displayed at the Ashdod Port. They were found hidden under sacks of cotton and lentils in three of the dozens of containers aboard the ship. The others contained only produce.

The arms included six C-704 shore-to-sea missiles, two launchers, computerized operating stations and two British-made coastal radars. The shipment also included 230 powerful 120mm mortar shells, which have a range of 10 kilometers; 2,260 of the smaller 60mm mortars, whose range is 2.5 kilometers; and 74,889 Kalashnikov rifle bullets.

‘Shift the balance’

Navy commander Adm. Eliezer Marom said the C-704 missiles, made in Iran according to a Chinese design, are “a different type of weapon than what we have seen [in Gaza] to date. If you like, you could call them ‘weapons that shift the balance.’ These are weapons that can hit the navy, civilian shipping and some of the gas barges along Israel’s coast.”

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the missiles “could change the entire nature of the activity around Gaza’s coast, [could] hit ships and facilities. This is further proof that we’re up against an axis comprised of Iranians, Syrians and Hezbollah, whose goal is to boost terror from the Gaza Strip.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the arms seizure “is a reply to all those who questioned, assailed and criticized Israel over the fact that it intercepted and attacked ships headed to Gaza. It is our obligation, not merely our right, to stop these ships and unload their arms.”

Displaying an operating manual written in Farsi, he added, “These weapons originated in Iran. They were transferred to Syria and were en route to terrorists in Gaza, but their ultimate target was Israeli citizens.”

Iran’s military chief of staff denied yesterday that his country was behind the shipment.

“Israel is a regime based on a lie, and it manufactures lies and fabrications,” Gen. Atallah Salhi said.

Hamas similarly denied that it was the intended recipient.

The Hamas facility that Israel attacked yesterday was located on the ruins of the former settlement of Netzarim. Palestinians said the attack was in response to a Qassam rocket launched at Israel yesterday morning.

Nevertheless, the Israeli response was unusual in that it took place during the day, when people would be inside the building. The army said this was a warning to Hamas against further attempts to smuggle in sophisticated weapons.

Meanwhile, the government has decided to release the Victoria and allow it to continue its journey to the Egyptian port of Alexandria.

An Israeli military spokeswoman in Tel Aviv would not confirm the report.

‘Victoria’ served as ‘first test’ of Iranian infrastructure.

The Victoria cargo ship that was seized by navy commandos on Tuesday filled with Iranian weapons may have been destined for Hamas or other terrorist organizations.

“Hamas does not fire rockets into Israel and gets very upset when other organizations do it, even though there is little it can do,” a senior IDF officer said.

A power shift in the Gaza Strip began after Operation Cast Lead and following Hamas’s decision to suspend its military operations against Israel. Islamic Jihad did not agree with the decision and has continued to attack Israel on a regular basis.

In 2010, for example, some 200 improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were planted along the Israeli-Gaza border by Islamic Jihad. In most cases, the IEDs – some antipersonnel and others against armored vehicles – were found in groups of three and four.

Islamic Jihad is also behind the recent rocket attacks against Israel, including the two Grad-model Katyusha rockets that struck Beersheba last month.

The weapons aboard the Victoria were supposed to be unloaded at the Egyptian port of Alexandria and transferred into the Gaza Strip via the hundreds of tunnels that are scattered under the 14-kilometer strip of land known as the Philadelphi Corridor.

The IDF is concerned that Iran, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are looking to take advantage of the current regime change in Egypt by establishing new terror and smuggling infrastructure in the Sinai Peninsula.

The arms aboard the Victoria were likely supposed to serve as one of the first tests of the new infrastructure.

At the same time, however, the Egyptians are continuing to operate against smuggling in the Sinai and along their southern border with Sudan, where the military recently intercepted a number of trucks trying to smuggle ammunition into Egypt.

The Egyptians have completed about 80 percent of a steel underground wall along the Philadelphi Corridor which goes some 15 meters down and has made it more difficult for smugglers to dig tunnels. Work on the wall was recently suspended due to the upheaval in Egypt, but the IDF is confident that it will be renewed soon.

The Unraveling Middle East | FrontPage Magazine.

To this can be added the upheaval in Yemen. Iran supports Shia rebels in that country, and can be expected to provide support for a new government if the current regime falls. Then there’s Bahrain. With its large Shia population, and given that it is headquarters for the U.S. 5^th Fleet, the overthrow of the island emirate would transform the power balance in the Gulf. Already reports indicate that a Facebook group has been formed to call for protests in Qatar for March 16. Among the demands are the closing of a U.S. base and the Emir’s resignation. While there are calls for breaking ties to both Israel and Iran, events in Egypt are showing that Islamist forces—which would be backed by Iran here—can certainly gain stature, reversing any anti-Iranian positions.

The upheaval in Kuwait together with the probability of unrest in Saudi Arabia, would also benefit Iran, since there are large Shia populations in these Gulf States.

These developments would see Iran, by proxy, exercising control over several vital areas. The Red Sea could in effect be shut off to the West. The impunity with which Iranian ships passed through Suez means that even a pro-Western Egypt would be unlikely to return to Mubarak’s policy of blocking such transits. One hostile to the West could see the Canal closed off, with severe repercussions given that 20 percent of the world’s oil and 40 percent of its seaborne trade pass through it. A pro-Iranian Yemen could also jeopardize the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, gateway to the Indian Ocean. Worse, Shia uprisings in the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, would directly threaten the key source of the global oil supply. Given the spike in prices that occurred after the upheaval in Libya, such a development would be catastrophic for the world economy. There is evidence that some of this is occurring. On February 5, Hamas saboteurs blew up Egypt’s main natural gas line to Israel and Jordan, causing massive increases to these countries’ energy bills. A February 26 attack on Iraq’s Baiji oil refinery, its largest, by al Qaeda cells controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, caused severe damage, which could see it closed for weeks. All this helps increase world prices and, more importantly, add to instability in the region.

Such a chain of events could see Iran in a much stronger position than it was just a month ago. Given the messianic views of the current leadership, and its perception that the balance of power is shifting in their favor, a confrontation with the West becomes ever more likely.