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DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 20, 2011, 11:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags: Libya Qaddafi Cyrenaica

Muammar Qaddafi

Around two million Cyrenaican protesters, half of Libya’s population who control half of the country and part of its oil resources, embarked Sunday, Feb. 20, on a full-scale revolt against Muammar Qaddafi and his affluent ruling Tripolitanian-dominated regime. Unlike the rights protests sweeping the Middle East and North Africa, in Libya, one half of the country is rising up against the other half, as well as fighting to overthrow a dictatorial ruler of 42 years.

Since last week, heavy battles have been fought in Benghazi, Al Bayda, Al Marj, Tobruk and at least two other two cities. In some places, debkafile‘s military sources report protesters stormed army bases and seized large quantities of missiles, mortars, heavy machine guns and armored vehicles – and used them. The important Fadil Ben Omar Brigade command base in Benghazi was burnt to the ground.

Our sources cite witnesses who spied Berber tribesmen among the insurgents, which bodes ill for Algerian and Morocco and their large Berber populations.
The reports of massacres and imported mercenaries, especially in Benghazi come mainly from opposition sources in West Europe and cannot be independently confirmed at this time. Neither could reports from the same sources Sunday night that Qaddafi’s rule had collapsed and the revolt had spread.

At the same time, there is no doubt that Qaddafi will not scruple to use brutal measures in desperation to save his regime, if he has not already. Hospital sources describe hundreds of dead and injured.
He has meanwhile put Ahmed Gaddaf Al-Dam, his cousin and security chief, in charge of the army’s effort to suppress the uprising in Benghazi. Most of the city appears to have fallen to the protesters, with the exception of its airport through which the ruler is pumping heavy reinforcements and sending them straight into battle.

So far, the Libyan Air Force and Navy have not been deployed. Helicopters sent in action to shoot into crowds are confirmed in only one place, Al Bayda.
Since Saturday afternoon, Qaddafi has not been seen or heard in public. According to some rumors, he has left Tripoli and made for the Saharan oasis town of Sebha, his tribal birthplace. So far, he has kept up the flow of military reinforcements to the six rebel cities because the towns of Tripolitania have been relatively quiet. But if Tripoli and its environs rise up too, he will be short of military strength to deal with trouble spots in both parts of the country.

Some Libyan would-be go-betweens proposed a ceasefire between Qaddafi and the protesters whereby the government would resign and the popular former prime minister Abdul Salam Jaloud be appointed caretaker prime minister until the crisis is resolved. But Jaloud declined the offer.
It is too early to determine in advance how the showdown between Qaddafi’s army and the protesters-insurgents of Cyrenaica turns out. Before it is over, Libya’s eastern provinces may be called on to sacrifice thousands more dead and wounded. If the Cyrenaicans do manage to hold on, they will be in a position to carve Libya in two and break away from Tripolitania and the Qaddafi regime.

Libya Protests: Benghazi ‘Liberated’ By Soldiers As They Defect From Gaddafi’s Forces | World News | Sky News.

Alex Rossi, in Cairo, and Katie Cassidy

Members of a Libyan army unit have told Benghazi residents they have defected and “liberated” the city from pro-Gaddafi forces.

Speaking from Benghazi, a local man named Benali, told Sky News members of the Libya’s armed forces have defected and that anti-regime protesters are now in control of the city.

Habib al-Oba, who heads the intensive care unit at the main Al-Jalae hospital, appeared to confirm the reports, saying the “Thunderbolt” squad arrived with soldiers who had been injured in clashes with Gaddafi’s men.

The Foreign Office has advised against all but essential travel to Libya as hospital reports suggest at least 200 people have been killed in four days of anti-government protests.The demonstrations, mainly in the second city of Benghazi, are the most serious against Colonel Gaddafi since he came to power 41 years ago.

However, it has been a confusing picture in Libya as foreign journalists are banned from the country.

Furthermore, telecommunications have been interrupted and the internet cut off.

The FCO has confirmed it is helping British nationals to leave the country and the embassy is offering them consular assistance.

Coffins of protesters are carried through the streets. Photo: Flickr a7fadhomar

Over the past four days Colonel Gaddafi has appeared to crackdown on the protests with lethal force, including reports that troops have fired machine guns at crowds.

There was also widespread speculation within Libya that the regime had hired African mercenaries to suppress any anti-government action.

One doctor in Benghazi was quoted as saying his hospital has counted at least 200 dead since the unrest began.

The protesters’ coffins are lined up in Benghazi. Photo: Flickr a7fadhomar

Separately, a hospital worker in the city named Abdullah told Sky News: “(On Saturday) we had a heavy attack – gunshots by the army forces, especially at night.

“People were protesting… the forces just attacked to make them leave.”

A video posted on the internet on Saturday night apparently shows protesters in Benghazi being fired on – but it is unclear whether those shooting are Libyan troops.

Colonel Gaddafi came to power in Libya after a 1969 coup

A resident of the city, Mary, also told Sky News there had been a fierce confrontation between protesters and the military on Saturday evening.

“There was artillery fire back at young boys who were protesting infront of a big military compound where Colonel Gaddafi usually lives when he’s here,” she said.

“The boys are trying to take this from the army but I don’t think they’ll have any chance because of the heavy artillery they’re using against them.”

It followed reports that said snipers opened fire on a crowd of mourners during the day who had gathered to bury those killed in earlier protests.

Resident Mary said there was another demonstration infront of Benghazi’s courthouse on Sunday.

“There was 50 bodies taken for burial from the courthouse and I heard they were travelling to the funeral procession and there was very heavy gunfire,” she said.

“I don’t know if they were firing at them (the mourners), but it seemed like it.”

Protesters gathered outside the Libyan embassy in London

Separate reports backed her comments, indicating Libyan forces had again opened fire on mourners on Sunday.

Britian’s Foreign Secretary William Hague has condemned the violence unleashed by Colonel Gaddafi.

He told Sky’s Murnaghan programme: “It is such a closed society to the international media, nevertheless the world is watching.

Witnesses: Libya army says Benghazi ‘liberated’ from pro-Ghadafi forces – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(Wow! – JW)

Tens of thousands of demonstrators flooded the country’s second largest city after security forces reportedly killed 200 people during clashes.

By News Agencies

Members of a Libyan army unit told Benghazi residents on Sunday night that they had defected and “liberated” the city from forces supporting veteran leader Moammar Gadhafi, two residents said.

Habib al-Obaidi, who heads the intensive care unit at the main Al-Jalae hospital, and lawyer Mohamed Al-Mana, told Reuters members of the “Thunderbolt” squad had arrived at the hospital with soldiers wounded in clashes with Gaddafi’s personal guard.

	Pro-Gadhafi supporters gather in Green Square after traditional Friday prayers in Tripoli, Libya, Friday, Feb. 18, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

“They are now saying that they have overpowered the Praetorian Guard and that they have joined the people’s revolt,” Mohamed said by telephone. It was not possible to independently verify the report.

Libyans protesting against Gadhafi’s rule appeared to control the streets of Benghazi by Sunday evening, even after security forces killed scores in the bloodiest of multiple revolts now rocking the Arab world.

Witnesses said Libya’s second city was in chaos, with government buildings ransacked and troops and police forced to retreat to a fortified compound, from where they picked off demonstrators with sniper and heavy-weapons fire.

The security forces are in their barracks and the city is in a state of civil mutiny,” one witness told Reuters.

Tens of thousands gathered in Benghazi on Sunday for funerals of protesters killed by Libyan security forces. Human Rights Watch said overnight violence had doubled the death toll from four days of clashes to at least 200. Fifty of those deaths took place on Sunday afternoon and evening, local doctors said.

Libyan forces fired machine-guns at mourners marching in a funeral procession for anti-government protesters in the eastern city of Benghazi, resuming the violent pattern of the previous days.

The unrest, the worst in Gadhfi’s four decades in power, started as a series of protests inspired by popular revolts in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, but was met by a fierce response.

Reporters have not been allowed into Libya’s second city but piecemeal accounts suggest its streets are largely under the control of anti-government protesters, who periodically come under attack from security forces firing out of their high-walled compound.

“A massacre took place here last night,” one Benghazi resident, who did not want to be named, told Reuters by telephone on Sunday.

He said security forces had used heavy weapons, adding: “Many soldiers and policemen have joined the protesters.”

Another resident of Benghazi, about 1,000 km (600 miles) east of the capital Tripoli, told Reuters: “Some 100,000 protesters are now heading for a cemetery to bury dozens of martyrs.”

Benghazi has been a center of a six-day revolt by Libyans inspired by uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia and frustrated by Gadhafi’s more than 40 years of authoritarian rule.

A Benghazi hospital doctor said overnight victims had suffered severe wounds from high-velocity rifles.

Another witness, a leading tribal figure who requested anonymity, said security forces were confined to their compound.

“The state’s official presence is absent in the city and the security forces are in their barracks and the city is in a state of civil mutiny,” he told Reuters. “People are running their own affairs.”

The New York-based Human Rights Watch said about 90 people had been killed on Saturday in clashes in Benghazi and surrounding towns running into the night.

The witness who spoke of the funeral procession gathering said: “We fear a new massacre because the road leading to the cemetery is not far from a security barracks.

“We will not give up until the regime falls. We call on the United Nations to intervene immediately to stop the massacre.”

Another witness in Benghazi told Reuters thousands of people had performed ritual prayers in front of 60 bodies laid out near Benghazi’s northern court.

He said hundreds of thousands of people, including women and children, had come out onto the Mediterranean seafront and the area surrounding the port. “The protesters are here until the regime falls,” he said.

Libyan analysts say it is unlikely for the moment that Gadhafi will be overthrown because the unrest is largely confined to the eastern Cyrenaica region, where his support has traditionally been weaker than in the rest of the country.

The Libyan government has not released any casualty figures. A text message sent to mobile phone subscribers on Sunday said the protesters in the east were trying to break the region away from central rule.

“The deaths in Benghazi and Al Bayda [a nearby town], on both sides, were the result of attacks on weapons stores to use in terrorizing people and killing innocents,” it said.

“All Libyan sons, we have to all stand up to stop the cycle of separation and sedition and destruction of our beloved Libya.”

The crackdown prompted about 50 Libyan Muslim religious leaders to issue an appeal, sent to Reuters, for the security forces, as Muslims, to stop the killing.

“We appeal to every Muslim, within the regime or assisting it in any way, to recognize that the killing of innocent human beings is forbidden by our Creator and by His beloved Prophet of Compassion [peace be upon him] … Do NOT kill your brothers and sisters. STOP the massacre NOW!” the appeal said.

Foreign reaction to the unrest in Libya, a major energy producer with significant investment from Britain’s BP Plc, Exxon of the United States and Italy’s ENI among others, has so far been muted.
But Britain called on Sunday for a stronger response.

“The world should not hesitate to condemn those actions,” Foreign Secretary William Hague told Sky News.

“What Colonel Gadhafi should be doing is respecting basic human rights, and there is no sign of that in the dreadful response, the horrifying response, of the Libyan authorities to these protests.”

Libya was for decades under U.S. and European sanctions over its banned weapons program, so Gaddafi is unlikely to be alarmed at the prospect of new international isolation.

Sir Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Libya, told the Independent on Sunday newspaper that Gadhafi would find it hard to make concessions in order to survive.

“I think the attitude of the Libyan regime is that it’s all or nothing,” he said.

Conflicting: Israel sources say two Iranian ships in transit through Suez Canal – Bikya Masr.

Feb 20th, 2011 | By Marian Houk |

According to Israeli news sources on Sunday, two Iranian warships they have been closely monitoring are now in transit in the Suez Canal, or possibly already through.

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting Sunday that he views this “with utmost gravity”.

Netanyahu also said: “I think that today we can see what an unstable region we live in, a region in which Iran tries to exploit the situation that has been created in order to expand its influence by passing warships through the Suez Canal.”

He added that this was another indication that “Israel’s security needs will grow.”

It is not clear what will happen when the Iranian ships emerge into the Mediterranean and head, possibly, towards Syria, as Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman predicted last week. Lieberman called the move a “provocation.”

One possibility is that international naval forces, possibly involving ships that have been added to the UNIFIL peacekeeping effort specifically to enforce UN Security Council resolution 1701 that ended the Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2006, may intercept and board to inspect the two Iranian ships — even if they do not go near Gaza’s maritime space, which has been under a formally-declared Israeli naval blockade since 3-4 January 2009.

The UNIFIL naval component has a mission “to assist the Lebanese government in preventing any unauthorized transfer of weapons into Lebanon via the sea, at its request.” It is unclear, however, if the current Lebanese government would now formulate such a request.

Another possibility [see below] is that international forces may intercept and inspect the two Iranian warships under provisions of UN Security Council resolutions that impose sanctions against Iran due to lack of confidence in its nuclear program.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz’s editor-at-large Aluf Benn wrote Sunday that “Egypt is signaling that it is no longer committed to its strategic alliance with Israel against Iran, and that Cairo is now willing to do business with Tehran … Since the uprising against Mubarak, the cold peace between Egypt and Israel has cooled even further. The delivery of natural gas to Israel, which was cut off after a terrorist attack on a station in northern Sinai, has still not been resumed”. This report is published here.

Various media reports suggest that Egypt has been diverting this gas supply to its own domestic uses, pending repairs on the damaged parts of the pipeline going to both Israel and Jordan.

The net effect of this disruption has, however, been a great increase of cost to both countries who are maintaining their electricity generation by using alternative fuels obtained through more expensive arrangements.

Another report on Sunday in Haaretz on Sunday, with material incorporated from Reuters, indicated here that Iranian state media confirmed the transit of the two warships, although Egyptian officials working in the Suez Canal Authority gave different information.

This Haaretz report stated that ” ‘Two Iranian warships have passed through the canal and are heading towards a Syrian port’, Al Alam said … The report by Iran’s state broadcaster Al Alam came after a Suez Canal official claimed that the Iranian vessels were to sail through the the Mediterranean on Monday, in what will be the first passage of Iranian naval ships through the canal since 1979. Suez Canal officials denied the Iranian report later Sunday, insisting that the voyage would take place, as planned, on Monday. The official said the vessels were to arrive at the southern mouth of the canal in the Red Sea’s Gulf of Suez on Sunday. They were then planned to enter the canal in the northern convoy on Monday morning and complete the journey to the Mediterranean by evening. An Egyptian army source said on Friday that the military, which has been running Egypt since President Hosni Mubarak was toppled from power on Feb. 11, had approved Iran’s request to send the ships through the canal”.

The circumstances in which Egypt could bar transit through the Suez Canal are limited, however.

Basically, Egypt could ban passage of ships flagged by a country with which Egypt might be in a state of war, or if the ships were carrying anything on board that is classified as toxic or hazardous.

The Haaretz report added that “The vessels, which are apparently not carrying any unconventional cargo, are expected to anchor in the Syrian port of Latakia. Israel believes the Egyptians had no choice but to allow the ships to pass through the Suez Canal, because the treaty to which it is a signatory obliges it to allow free passage through the waterway. However, during recently ousted President Hosni Mubarak’s regime, the Iranians did not make such a move, apparently due to clear opposition from Cairo. The Israel Navy is prepared in case the Iranian ships make a move toward the Israeli coastline, though the chances of that happening are at this point believed to be slim”.

The freewheeling Israeli website, DebkaFile, reported, in a somewhat different tone, that “Tehran connived to slip the two Iranian warships through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sunday, Feb. 20, after a series of fake delaying tactics agreed between them to cover the flotilla’s movements. Egypt’s military rulers approved the passage of Iranian flotilla through the Suez Canal without inspecting their freights for banned cargo, taking advantage of the sandstorm over the region which obscured them from spy satellites and helped them to give monitors the slip. Tehran marked this landmark event with an official state TV statement Sunday that the ships had entered the Mediterranean and were on their way to Syria. Sunday, Cairo was still saying they will only reach Suez Monday”.

This DebkaFile reports notes that “Cairo’s approval for Iranian warships transit of the Suez Canal has brought Israel and Iran closer than ever before to a naval collision at sea”, and added that “Israel has learned that the Iranian cruiser Kharg is carrying long-range missiles for Hizballah which it plans to unload at a Syrian port or Beirut harbor”.

The report added that “US State Department spokesman P.J Crowley said [last week] he was ‘highly skeptical’ of the Syrian claim that the two ships’ visit was for training … [Crowley was] indicating that the US and all other UN members were authorized by UN sanctions against Iran to board and search Iranian ships suspected of carrying illegal weapons”…

The DebkaFile report added that “Heavy US and Israeli pressure failed to dissuade Egypt’s military rulers from letting the Iranian flotilla through Suez. So now the waterway has been opened wide for Iran to consign heavy weapons deliveries to Syria and Lebanon – in the first instance, and eventually to try and break Israel’s naval blockade on the Gaza Strip and bring Hamas the heavy munitions that were impossible to transport through smuggling tunnels”…

Financial analysts reported last week that tensions about the possible passage of the two Iranian warships through the Suez Canal had caused world oil prices to rise, and had also affected stock market trading.

BM

Report: Hezbollah fighting Iran protestors; 2 killed – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Anti-regime protests resume in Islamic Republic. Opposition elements report 1,500 Hezbollah men assisting local forces to disperse protests. At least two demonstrators killed in clashes. Daughter of former President Rafsanjani arrested and released

Dudi Cohen

Iranian anti-government protests resume. Two people were killed Sunday during protests in two Tehran squares, unofficial reports suggest. At least five people were injured in Shiraz. The protestors are marking one week to the death of two demonstrators.

Meanwhile, Iranian exiles reported that Hezbollah has joined the security forces in suppressing the protests. Opposition groups claimed that as many as 1,500 Hezbollah operatives are taking part in clashes. Members of the terrorist organization, which reportedly receives training and aid from Iran, assisted the authorities to disperse the demonstration in Tehran’s Azadi Square last week.

Also Sunday, Iran arrested the daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani for taking part in a banned opposition rally, the official IRNA news agency reported. Shortly thereafter, the semi-official Fars news agency reported she was released after being detained briefly.

“Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani was released after claiming that she was out shopping for cloths,” Fars reported.

Eye witnesses told opposition websites that security forces were trying to disperse the demonstrators using tear gas and live fire. An unofficial report said one man was killed during a protest in Theran’s Haft-e-Tir Square. A website affiliated with Iranian student unions also reported that live fire used by security forces left one man dead. Another report said that a protestor was killed in the Vanak square. CNN reporter Reza Sayah tweeted that he saw security forces beating at least 15 people with batons in Tehran’s Revolution Square. He added that at least four protestors were arrested.Farsi BBC reported shots were fired in Abbas Abad in north Tehran. Unofficial reports suggest that thousands of protestors clashed with security forces in Vali-Asr Square and called “Death to the dictator.”

Meanwhile, the pro-government Fars news agency said that “calm” prevailed in Tehran in the face of the presence of security forces in “full strength.”

“The police was in control of the situation and there was peace in the city with no reports of any incidents,” Fars said.

YouTube video shows demonstrators fleeing from police in Shiraz

Many websites blocked

Social network users reported that many websites were blocked Sunday including the Gmail service. Opposition website Rahesabz.net reported that the cell phone network in central Tehran had been cut off. Another report said that overseas calls to Tehran were also blocked in order to restrict the flow of information to foreign media outlets.

Earlier on Sunday, opposition activists gathered in several areas in Iran’s capital.

Iran warned the opposition on Saturday against staging demonstrations after calls were posted on websites for a rally on Sunday to commemorate two people killed during protests this week, state media reported.

Opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi’s and Mehdi Karoubi’s websites have called for nationwide rallies on Sunday, which they also said were intended to show “decisive support to the pro-reform movement and its leaders.”

Mousavi and Karoubi, who both lost to Ahmadinejad in the vote, have been placed under house arrest after calling for the rally. AFP and Reuters contributed to this report

Iran protester killed in clashes with police, say witnesses – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Foreign media in Tehran were again prohibited from covering Sunday’s protests, making it impossible to verify the reports by the opposition websites and witnesses.

By News Agencies

Opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi had used their websitels to issue for nationwide rallies to commemorate two people killed in protests last week and show “decisive support to the pro-reform movement and its leaders”.

	People in Tehran take part in the funeral of Sanee Zhaleh, a student who was shot dead during an opposition rally, February 16, 2011.
	Photo by: Reuters

Mousavi’s website “Kaleme” reported that there had been gatherings of opposition supporters in various parts of Tehran.

The demonstrator was hit by shotgun fire in the Haft Tir square in central Tehran and died almost instantly, the websites said, as police used tear gas on the crowds in the capital.

A senior government official denied the report. Foreign media in Tehran were again prohibited from covering Sunday’s protests, making it impossible to verify the reports by the opposition websites and witnesses.

The official IRNA news agency said Iran’s police chief had confirmed that security forces were out in numbers in Tehran but denied that there had been any significant incidents.

The daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was briefly detained for “chanting provocative slogans” while taking part in a rally, IRNA reported.

The semi-official Fars news agency later said she had been released after saying that she was “out shopping for clothes”.

The former president, who remains a powerful figure as head of Iran’s Expediency Council, supported Mousavi in the disputed 2009 presidential election, won by Ahmadinejad.

The authorities, seeking to avoid a revival of the mass anti-government rallies that erupted after the 2009 vote, had warned on Saturday that any illegal gatherings by the opposition would be confronted.

Two people were killed and dozens arrested on Monday when thousands of opposition supporters in Tehran and other cities took to the streets in sympathy with uprisings that toppled the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia.

On Sunday, the Kaleme website said that “a large number of riot police, security forces, members of the Basij militia and plainclothes forces can be seen in Tehran’s streets”.

Karoubi’s website Sahamnews said security forces were out in large numbers in other cities including Isfahan and Shiraz.

The Fars agency said “seditionists” had unsuccessfully tried to gather in the holy Shi’ite city of Mashhad in northeast Iran.
Foreign media were not provided with the required permits to cover protests from the streets.

The accreditations of text and visual journalists working for foreign media including Agence France-Presse, Al Jazeera and the New York Times were revoked after they covered Monday’s anti-government protests without permits.

Iran’s police chief was quoted by IRNA as saying there had been no significant incidents on Sunday. “Despite the efforts of enemies who wanted to foment tension in Iran, nothing happened in the country,” Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam said.

But Mousavi’s website said there had been “sporadic gatherings”. “Generally they are silent but sometimes the crowd chants ‘Allahu Akbar’ (God is Great) and ‘Death to the Dictator’,” it said.Mousavi and Karoubi, who both ran against Ahmadinejad in
2009, have been placed under house arrest since calling for Monday’s rally. Hardliners have urged the judiciary to hand down death penalties to opposition leaders.

In response, Karoubi urged the judiciary to put him on public trial, Sahamnews reported on Saturday.

The opposition leaders said Monday’s rally, the first big show of opposition on the streets since December 2009, showed
Iran’s pro-democracy movement was still alive.

Iran’s hardline rulers have repeatedly accused opposition leaders of being part of a Western plot to overthrow the Islamic system. Mousavi and Karoubi deny the claim.

‘Forces clash with anti-gov’t protesters in Iran’.

Thousands of demonstrators in Iran poured into the streets of Tehran Sunday in nationwide protests against the government on Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Protesters clashed with security forces trying to disperse them, according to witness accounts.

Protesters targeted government landmarks such as the national broadcast company chanting “God is great,” and “Death to the dictator,” witnesses reported on opposition websites, according to the report.

The reports come after an Iranian pro-government news agency claimed armed opposition groups planed to shoot at people at the protest.

The news agency said that teams of the Mujahedeen Khalq, an Iraq-based Iranian opposition group, entered the country to shoot people during the protest rally.

The report by Fars was seen as a warning to potential protesters that the demonstration will become violent.

Sunday’s rally marked a week since the deaths of two people in Feb. 14 clashes between security forces and opposition protesters in Tehran. It was the largest demonstration by the opposition in more than a year.

The opposition blamed the deaths on government forces.

Oren Kessler and The Associated Press contributed to this report

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 19, 2011, 12:37 AM (GMT+02:00)

Iranian Kharg with missiles for Hizballah

Cairo and Tehran connived to slip the two Iranian warships through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sunday, Feb. 20, after a series of fake delaying tactics agreed between them to cover the flotilla’s movements. Egypt’s military rulers approved the passage of Iranian flotilla through the Suez Canal without inspecting their freights for banned cargo, taking advantage of the sandstorm over the region which obscured them from spy satellites and helped them to give monitors the slip. Tehran marked this landmark event with an official state TV statement Sunday that the ships had entered the Mediterranean and were on their way to Syria.  Sunday, Cairo was still saying they will only reach Suez Monday.

From earlier debkafile reports: Cairo’s approval for Iranian warships transit of the Suez Canal  has brought Israel and Iran closer than ever before to a naval collision at sea. debkafile reports: Israel has learned that the Iranian cruiser Kharg is carrying long-range missiles for Hizballah which it plans to unload at a Syrian port or Beirut harbor.

US State Department spokesman P.J Crowley said he was “highly skeptical” of the Syrian claim that the two ships’ visit was for training. “If the ships move through the canal, we will evaluate what they actually do. It’s not really about the ships. It’s about what the ships are carrying, what’s their destination, what’s the cargo on board, where’s it going, to whom and for what benefit,” Crowley told a news conference.
He was responding to questions in the wake of debkafile‘s disclosure that the Karg was carrying missiles for Hizballah and indicating that the US and all other UN members were authorized by UN sanctions against Iran to board and search Iranian ships suspected of carrying illegal weapons.

Heavy US and Israeli pressure failed to dissuade Egypt’s military rulers from letting the Iranian flotilla through Suez. So now the waterway has been opened wide for Iran to consign heavy weapons deliveries to Syria and Lebanon – in the first instance, and eventually to try and break Israel’s naval blockade on the Gaza Strip and bring Hamas the heavy munitions that were impossible to transport through smuggling tunnels.
Israel was closely monitoring the Iranian flotilla, whose visit to the Saudi Red Sea port of Jeddah on Feb. 6, preparatory to transiting Suez, was first revealed exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 481 on February 10.

Up until now, Saudi Arabia, in close conjunction with Egypt and its President Hosni Mubarak, led the Sunni Arab thrust to contain Iranian expansion – especially in the Persian Gulf. However, the opening of a Saudi port to war ships of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the first time in the history of their relations points to a fundamental shift in Middle East trends in consequence of the Egyptian uprising.  It was also the first time Cairo has permitted Iranian warships to transit Suez from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, although Israeli traffic in the opposite direction had been allowed.
Iran made no secret of its plants to expand its naval and military presence beyond the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to the Mediterranean via Suez: On February 2, Iran’s Deputy Navy Commander Rear Admiral Gholam-Reza Khadem Biqam announced the flotilla’s mission was to “enter the waters of the Red Sea and then be dispatched to the Mediterranean Sea.”

However, Israeli military intelligence which failed to foresee the Egyptian upheaval and its policy-makers ignored the Iranian admiral’s announcement and its strategic import, just as they failed to heed the significance of the Iranian flotilla’s docking in Jeddah.
debkafile‘s military sources report that Iran is rapidly seizing the fall of the Mubarak regime in Cairo and the Saudi King Abdullah’s falling-out with President Barack Obama (see debkafile of Feb. 10, 2011) as an opportunity not to be missed for establishing a foothold along the Suez Canal and access to the Mediterranean for six gains:

1. To cut off, even partially, the US military and naval Persian Gulf forces from their main route for supplies and reinforcements;
2. To establish an Iranian military-naval grip on the Suez Canal, through which 40 percent of the world’s maritime freights pass every day:
3. To bring an Iranian military presence close enough to menace the Egyptian heartland of Cairo and the Nile Delta and squeeze it into joining the radical Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi-Turkish alliance;
4. To thread a contiguous Iranian military-naval line from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and the Gaza Strip and up to the ports of Lebanon, where Hizballah has already seized power and toppled the pro-West government.
5. To eventually sever the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, annex it to the Gaza Strip and establish a large Hamas-ruled Palestinian state athwart the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea.
By comparison, a Fatah-led Palestinian state on the West Bank within the American orbit be politically and strategically inferior.
6. To tighten the naval and military siege on Israel.

Facebook, not fighter jets, can topple Iran’s regime – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

The moment the country digests that without permanent borders it is not sustainable, the time will come to talk to its computer.

By Yoel Marcus

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 18, 2011, 7:39 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iranian Kharg with missiles for Hizballah

Cairo’s approval Friday, Feb. 18 for two Iranian warships to transit the Suez Canal on their way to the Mediterranean has brought Israel and Iran closer than ever before to a naval collision at sea. debkafile reports: Israel has learned that the Iranian cruiser Kharg is carrying long-range missiles for Hizballah which it plans to unload at a Syrian port or Beirut harbor.

Friday, Israeli government and military officials were urgently casting about for a way to prevent those missiles reaching the Lebanese terrorists.  Heavy US and Israeli pressure failed to dissuade Egypt’s military rulers from letting the Iranian flotilla through Suez. So now the waterway has been opened wide for Iran to consign heavy weapons deliveries to Syria and Lebanon – in the first instance, and eventually to try and break Israel’s naval blockade on the Gaza Strip and bring Hamas the heavy munitions that were impossible to transport through smuggling tunnels.
On February 16, debkafile reported:

Twenty-four hours after Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the Egyptian upheaval had no military connotations for Israel, Tehran applied for the Iranian frigate Alvand and cruiser Kharg to transit the Suez Canal on their way to Syria Wednesday night, Feb. 16. Their passage was termed “a provocation” by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. In Beirut, Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah said he was looking forward to Israel going to war on Lebanon because then his men would capture Galilee.
Israel was closely monitoring the Iranian flotilla, whose visit to the Saudi Red Sea port of Jeddah on Feb. 6, preparatory to transiting Suez, was first revealed exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly481 on February 10.

Up until now, Saudi Arabia, in close conjunction with Egypt and its President Hosni Mubarak, led the Sunni Arab thrust to contain Iranian expansion – especially in the Persian Gulf. However, the opening of a Saudi port to war ships of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the first time in the history of their relations points to a fundamental shift in Middle East trends in consequence of the Egyptian uprising.  It was also the first time Cairo has permitted Iranian warships to transit Suez from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, although Israeli traffic in the opposite direction had been allowed.
Iran made no secret of its plants to expand its naval and military presence beyond the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to the Mediterranean via Suez: On February 2, Iran’s Deputy Navy Commander Rear Admiral Gholam-Reza Khadem Biqam announced the flotilla’s mission was to “enter the waters of the Red Sea and then be dispatched to the Mediterranean Sea.”

However, Israeli military intelligence which failed to foresee the Egyptian upheaval and its policy-makers ignored the Iranian admiral’s announcement and its strategic import, just as they failed to heed the significance of the Iranian flotilla’s docking in Jeddah.
debkafile‘s military sources report that Iran is rapidly seizing the fall of the Mubarak regime in Cairo and the Saudi King Abdullah’s falling-out with President Barack Obama (see debkafile of Feb. 10, 2011) as an opportunity not to be missed for establishing a foothold along the Suez Canal and access to the Mediterranean for six gains:

1. To cut off, even partially, the US military and naval Persian Gulf forces from their main route for supplies and reinforcements;
2. To establish an Iranian military-naval grip on the Suez Canal, through which 40 percent of the world’s maritime freights pass every day:
3. To bring an Iranian military presence close enough to menace the Egyptian heartland of Cairo and the Nile Delta and squeeze it into joining the radical Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi-Turkish alliance;
4. To thread a contiguous Iranian military-naval line from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and the Gaza Strip and up to the ports of Lebanon, where Hizballah has already seized power and toppled the pro-West government.
5. To eventually sever the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, annex it to the Gaza Strip and establish a large Hamas-ruled Palestinian state athwart the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea.
By comparison, a Fatah-led Palestinian state on the West Bank within the American orbit be politically and strategically inferior.
6. To tighten the naval and military siege on Israel.