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DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 7, 2011, 1:47 PM (GMT+02:00)

Special Lebanon Tribunal jumps the gun on Hizballah

With no end of the Egyptian standoff in sight, a showdown in Lebanon looms large: Within days, the UN Special Lebanon Tribunal’sPretrial Judge Daniel Fransen is scheduled to publish indictments based on the findings of Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare’s probe of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafiq Hariri in 2005, debkafile‘s intelligence sources report.

The court’s accelerated schedule has caught suspects, chiefly security big shots of the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah, unprepared. There is not much it can do but openly flout the court’s expected summons for their extradition by force of arms.
The international judges have jumped the gun not only for Hizballah but also for its bosses in Damascus and Tehran and even up to a point in Washington, which has supported the court’s work but had hoped indictments would not be ready for some months. The last thing the Obama administration needs at this moment is a second Middle East bonfire.
But whether they like it or not, Monday, Feb. 7, the Special Tribunal held is first hearing in Leidschendam near The Hague.

It was called by STL President Antonio Cassese to address questions of legality and procedure raised by the pretrial judge Fransen. Monday’s session was to withhold the names of individuals contained in the sealed indictment document Bellemare filed with Fransen on Jan. 17. This and future sessions will be held in public, so the full list of accused may be only be a week or ten days away from release.

This finds the carefully crafted plan put together by Iran, Syria and Hizballah to make sure that point was never reached coming undone at the seams: They managed to get rid of pro-Western Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and replace him with Najib Miqati, friend to Hizballah and Syrian leaders, whose first task was to have been to disqualify the STL, nullify its indictments and sever ties with the tribunal.  But their handpicked candidate for prime minister has not managed to form a government because of three obstacles:

1.  Lebanese President Michel Suleiman insists he will only endorse a national unity administration, which would necessitate the participation of Saad Hariri’s March 14 bloc.

2.  Suleiman wants a March 14 candidate – not a Miqati man – appointed Interior Minister to head the most powerful government department which holds the levers of the national domestic security and intelligence services> He also has the authority to declare a national state of emergency.
3.  Miqati is not eager to head a narrow-based government either, because it would expose him as a Syrian-Hizballah rubber stamp and he would be ostracized by the United States and much of the West.

The Iran-Syrian-Hizballah alliance has consequently lost its race to beat the international Hariri tribunal to the draw. The court has begun its hearings, presenting them with a fait accompli.

Hizballah may still cast about for a fast worker to take over from Migati and rush a new government through or, alternatively, exercise force to seize control of Beirut and the government institutions and establish an alternative “Free Lebanon” administration that announce the severance ties with the STL.

These options are fraught with the threat of civil violence.

Will unrest in Egypt inspire another uprising in Iran? – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

As opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi makes a move, the Iranian regime is on alert.

By Zvi Bar’el

Both the Iranian leadership and citizenry are watching the events in Egypt and asking themselves: Where did we fail? Why did the demonstrations that took place in Iran after the 2009 elections fail to change the regime and remove the president, as the protests in Tunisia, and possibly Egypt, have done?

Iranian bloggers are back online, proposing the resumption of the Green Movement’s activities, under the direction of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. Consequently, the regime is on alert.

	Iranian women covering their faces with green niqabs in Noushabad, south of the capital Tehran, Iran, December 17, 2010.
	Photo by: AP

“If the regime in Egypt would not have cheated in the elections things, would not have come to this,” Mousavi recently said, hinting at the Iranian regime.

He also noted that while the Iranian regime talks about the poverty of the Egyptian citizenry, and says Egypt’s government is going down because of its links to the United States, the Iranian regime “forgets” to note that the same corruption which led to the impoverishment of the Egyptians is prevalent in Iran as well.

Returning the favor, the Websites of regime supporters have gone on the offensive, calling Mousavi and his supporters “green pharaohs” and claiming the uprising in Iran was carried out by secularists, “pro-American reformists and heathens like the Baha’is,” while in Egypt the main element is the Muslim Brotherhood – “and this is proof of where the region is heading.”

“Mousavi is drawing a parallel between Egypt and Iran, but forgets to say that [other] regimes in Arab states are bound to the United States,” according to a posting on a site affiliated with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Iran’s Supreme religious leader Ali Khamenei said Friday that the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries are indicative of an Islamic awakening in the entire region. Khamenei added that with the success of the uprisings in the Middle East, Washington is faced with an “irreversible defeat.”

“These scenes of thugs on camels attacking peaceful demonstrators are proof of the sort of democracy the United States wants in the region. You, the Americans, have behaved with hostility toward the Iranian people for 32 years, but the Iranian people has countered all your threats,” Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and a political rival of Ahmadinejad, explained this week.

If Mousavi compares the demonstrations in Arab states to the Iranian uprising following the election, the Iranian regime compares them to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and to a model introduced by Iran. In general, official Iranian media avoided commenting on the events in Tunisia; and when reports began airing, it sought to give it an Islamic hue and compare the ousted president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to the Iranian shah who was overthrown.

But the question of whether the Green Movement is capable of resuming demonstrations, resembling those in Egypt, remains unanswered. There is a substantial difference between Egypt and Iran. While the Iranian regime did not hesitate to use millions of volunteers and Revolutionary Guards to suppress the demonstrations and directly target the leadership of the uprising, the Egyptian regime has held back, shown willingness to discuss the matter, and did not unleash the military against the demonstrators.

Top leadership resigns from Egypt’s ruling NDP party.

CAIRO — The top leadership body of Egypt’s ruling party resigned Saturday, including the president’s son, but the regime appeared to be digging in its heels, calculating that it can ride out street protests and keep Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in office.

Protesters rejected the concessions and vowed to keep up their campaign until Mubarak steps down, convinced that the regime intends to enact only superficial democratic reforms and keep its hold on power. Tens of thousands thronged Cairo’s central Tahrir Square in a 12th day of protests, chanting “He will go! He will go!”

But the United States gave a strong endorsement to Mubarak’s deputy Omar Suleiman’s handling of the transition, warning that order was needed to prevent extremists from hijacking the process. “It’s important to support the transition process announced by the Egyptian government actually headed by now-Vice President Omar Suleiman,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said at an international security conference in Munich, Germany.

Frank Wisner, the retired American diplomat sent by President Barack Obama to Cairo this past week to tell Mubarak that the U.S. saw his rule coming to an end, said Mubarak had to keep a leadership role at least temporarily if the “fragile glimmerings” of progress were to take hold as quickly as needed.

Mubarak insists he will remain in his post until his term ends in the autumn after presidential elections in September. Washington has said the transition should bring greater democracy to ensure a free and fair vote. But protesters fear that without an immediate Mubarak exit and the pressure from the streets, the regime will emerge with its authoritarian monopoly largely intact.

“What happened so far does not qualify as reform,” said Amr Hamzawy, a member of the Committee of Wise Men, a self-appointed group of prominent figures from Egypt’s elite that is unconnected to the protesters but has met with Suleiman to explore solutions to the crisis. “There seems to be a deliberate attempt by the regime to distract the proponents of change and allow the demands to disintegrate in the hope of (regime) survival.”

Wael Khalil, a 45-year-old activist protesting in Tahrir, greeted news of the party resignations with scorn, said they would “reinforce their (protesters’) resolve and increase their confidence because it shows that they are winning, and the regime is retreating inch by inch.”

The ruling party leaders who resigned included some of the country’s most powerful political figures — and its most unpopular among many Egyptians. State TV, announcing the resignations, still identified Mubarak as president of the ruling party in a sign he would remain in authority.

Among those on the six-member party Steering Committee that stepped down was the National Democratic Party’s secretary-general, Safwat el-Sharif, and the president’s son Gamal Mubarak, who has long been seen as his father’s intended heir as president. The turmoil has crushed those ambitions, however, with Suleiman promising in the past week that Gamal will not run for president in September.

Hossam Badrawi, a ruling party figure who is a physician and whose family owns one of Cairo’s exclusive hospitals, was named as the new secretary-general and as head of the party’s policies committee, replacing Gamal.

The move suggested that the military figures now dominating the regime — including Suleiman and Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq — judged that dumping party veterans was the price for convincing enough Egyptians that it is serious about reform to weaken the demonstrations to the point they die down.

On Saturday, authorities were projecting an air of confidence they can ride it out. Suleiman has invited all the protest groups and opposition parties into immediate negotiations on constitutional reforms. So far, the youth movements leading the protests have staunchly refused, saying Mubarak must leave and a broad-based transitional leadership put in place to ensure the ruling party and regime do not dominate the terms of constitutional change.

But Shafiq, speaking to journalists on state TV, depicted the protest movement as weakening. He noted that a re-invigorated protest — estimated at around 100,000 people — had failed to force Mubarak out on Friday as organizers had hoped. “All this leads to stability,” he said.

He indicated the government hopes to convince enough factions to enter talks that the others will be forced to join in. “Once they find the others are negotiation, for sure they will or they will be left alone,” he said. “The level of aspirations is going down day by day.”

So far, however, only a couple of official opposition political parties have agreed to talks. The official parties, which operate with regime consent, are not involved in the negotiations, have little popular base and are viewed with contempt by many protesters.

Government officials, meanwhile, sought to depict that normalcy was returning to a capital that has been paralyzed for nearly two weeks by the crisis. State TV announced that banks and courts, closed for most of the turmoil, will reopen Sunday, the start of Egypt’s work week, though daily bank withdrawals will be limited to $15,000 and the stock market will remain shut at least through Monday.

In Tahrir, Elwan Abdul Rahman, a 26-year-old who came from southern Egypt on Friday to join protesters, dismissed the prime minister’s comments. “He’s laughing at the world, he’s laughing at all of us,” he said, pointing at the crowds and saying, “Do you think they’re gonna go away tomorrow? … People are here with their blood and their soul.”

The government and military have promised not to try to clear protesters from Tahrir, and soldiers guarding the square continued to let people enter to join the growing rally.

But there were signs of tension Saturday. At one point, army tanks tried to try to bulldoze away several burned out vehicles that protesters used in barricades during fighting this week with pro-regime attackers. The protesters say they want the gutted chassis in place in case of a new attack. Protesters clambered onto the vehicles and lay down in front of them to prevent soldiers from removing them, and only after heated arguments did the troops agree.

Also, there were reports for the first time of attempts by troops guarding the square’s entrances to prevent those entering from bringing food for protesters, thousands of whom have camped out for days and need a constant flow of supplies.

Mohammad Radwan, 31, said soldiers harassed him as he brought in supplies of bread, cheese and lunch meat and tried to confiscate some of the food until he shouted them down. “They want to suffocate the people in Tahrir and this is the most obvious attack on them without actually attacking,” he said.

So far, protesters have been willing only to start contacts with the government on terms of Mubarak’s exit. A group of youth activists organizing the protests met Friday with Suleiman.

One proposal floated by the “Wise Men” would have Mubarak “deputize” Suleiman with his powers and step aside in every way but name, perhaps keeping the presidency title for the time being at least. The Wise Men have met twice with Suleiman and Shafiq to discuss the proposal, which also involves the dissolving of the parliament monopolized by the ruling party and the end of emergency laws that give security forces near-unlimited powers.

But “the stumbling point remains that of the president stepping down,” said Amr el-Shobaki, a Wise Men member. The group comprises about a dozen prominent public figures and jurists.

One of the protest organizers who met with Suleiman Friday night said the proposal “could be a way out of the crisis.” But he too said there was no sign of Suleiman accepting. “The problem is in the president,” he said. “He is not getting it that he has become a burden on everybody.”

The protest organizers themselves are a mix of small movements who managed to draw broad-based support among a public disenchanted with Mubarak’s rule. The majority are young secular leftists and liberals, who launched the wave of protests though an Internet campaign, but the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood also has built a prominent role.

Suleiman and Shafiq say they want negotiations with all the factions, promising their voices will be heard.

Protesters, however, distrust a process conducted by the current government, given the regime’s overwhelming domination of the playing field, including a grip on security services and the media, a vast patronage system, a constitution that effectively enshrines its monopoly and a history of rigging elections.

Landau: Israel prepared for natural gas disruption.

Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau said that Israel is prepared for unexpected disruptions in the supply of natural gas from Egypt, such as the one experienced Saturday.

Landau said in a statement that a drill was held last June, in which exactly such a scenario was simulated. He added that Israel has the capabilities to immediately switch to alternative energy sources. The infrastructure minister said that his office is holding consultations with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and security officials as the events are monitored.

Earlier Saturday, an explosion or fire broke out in a natural gas pipeline in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Reports said that the explosion was an act of terrorism bu the Egyptian government said that the fire was caused by a leak.

Egypt’s foreign minister to Iran: Mind your own business.

CAIRO — Egypt’s foreign minister has told Teheran to mind its own business after Iran’s top leader praised the Egyptian uprising as an appropriate response to dictatorial rule.

Ahmed Aboul Gheit told reporters Saturday that Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seems to have forgotten about the crushing of widespread protests in Iran two years ago.

Aboul Gheit said Khamenei should be more attentive to calls for freedom in Iran rather than “distracting the Iranian people’s attention by hiding behind what is happening in Egypt.”

The Egyptian foreign minister said that “Iran’s critical moment has not come yet, but we will watch that moment with great anticipation and interest.”

Egypt has been rocked by two weeks of protests seeking the ouster of its president, Hosni Mubarak.

During Friday prayers, Irans top leader said that Mubarak betrayed his people and the uprising against his rule is the appropriate response. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also told worshippers that widening unrest in the Arab world is a sign of “Islamic awareness” in the region.

Iran has portrayed the unrest in Egypt, which erupted Jan. 25, as a replay of the 1979 Iranian Revolution that toppled the pro-US Shah and brought Islamic militants to power.

In his speech, Khamenei accused Mubarak of doing America’s bidding, particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “America’s control over Egypt’s leaders has … turned Egypt into the biggest enemy of Palestine and turned it into the greatest refuge for Zionists,” he said.

“This explosion we see among the people of Egypt is the appropriate response to this great betrayal that the traitor dictator committed against his people,” Khamenei said, without mentioning Mubarak by name.

JPost.com staff contributed to this report.

Magazine | Opinion.

Photo by: Associated Press

The rise of the Egyptian people following Tunisia’s “Jasmine Revolution” has roused the Arab street, and signaled a new chapter of change for the Arab world. If the long-entrenched Arab regimes are to avoid the fate of those in Tunisia and Egypt, they must pay attention to the message being expressed.

Arab leaders across the region should now address their people’s aspirations and enable a stable transition to greater economic opportunity, better education, more human rights, and an end to rampant corruption. And they must guarantee political freedom.

When university graduate-turned-street-vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of a government building in Tunisia, he unleashed a torrent of long-repressed rage. The subsequent protests against rampant unemployment and corruption, and the ouster of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, have led to protests from Morocco to Yemen, with a united refrain: the Arabs want their leaders sent to join Ben Ali in his Saudi Arabian refuge.

These revolts have been organized via online social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter – much like the demonstrations against Iran’s presidential election last year. It is clear that change is afoot. Also clear is that for the Arab dictators to manage this change will require genuine reform, immediately.

To be sure, each nation has its own individual grievances.

Tunisia has a strong secular and nationalist foundation that has kept the revolution there essentially free of Islamist elements. Others in the Arab world may not be so fortunate.

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has remained on the sidelines only for fear that its involvement would lead to quick and violent retribution. But undoubtedly Islamists throughout the region will be looking to take advantage of the unrest and subsequent political upheaval.

In Jordan, where unemployment rests officially at 14% – but where many believe the actual rate is 30% – the Muslim Brotherhood has already vowed to “demand improved living conditions as well as political and economic reforms.”

Unlike Tunisia, Jordan lacks the secular or nationalist foundations that could guard against such Islamist influence.

The same can be said of Yemen, the Arab world’s poorest country, already gripped by civil war and home to Al Qaida operatives. Any Tunisia-style upheaval in such countries could easily lead to the kind of chaos that would pull the region even further from the political freedom being called for.

TO PREVENT the Tunisian and the Egyptian wave from becoming a tsunami, the Arab governments of the Middle East must listen to the people. Any rapid change from repressive dictatorship to transparent democracy is unlikely; and perhaps not ideal. Extremists are likely to exploit any stumbling blocks on the difficult path. Establishing the culture and infrastructure of democracy – especially where it is a foreign concept – takes time, as we have seen in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories.

However, to provide for their people and take the steam out of the protests, Arab leaders should begin by taking five essential steps: (1) provide for economic growth, (2) build the civil society and a culture of political pluralism, (3) institutionalize human rights, (4) improve education and (5) crack down on corruption.

Before any of these measures can take place, a transitional government supported by the military (especially in Egypt, where the military is held in high esteem) should be formed. Such a transitional government can be led by the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Dr.

Mohamed ElBaradei, around whom other opposition groups appear ready to coalesce. The transitional government should commit itself to laying the groundwork for systematic changes in all five categories, and prepare the country for general elections in two years. Any free but premature elections, including the already scheduled Egyptian election for this September, could have disastrous results, because the winners at this stage may well be the already organized, extreme Islamic groups.

More than anything else, the immediate focus of the Egyptian caretaker government should be investments in sustainable development projects, particularly in rural areas. Sustainable development projects can provide millions of jobs, and are mostly cost-effective. Arab leaders should note the economic transformation of Asia in the past 20 years as an example of what investment in education and the economy can accomplish.

Following economic reforms, Tunisia’s economy soared to 5% annual growth, and Egypt’s exceeded 6%, despite the global recession. However, the youth boom in the Arab world demands an even greater, and more sustainable economic expansion.

Since civil societies have been consistently stifled throughout the Arab world, Egypt’s caretaker government must allow political parties to organize, as long as they remain peaceful. Without allowing time for such social and political movements to develop, not only would the better-organized Muslim Brotherhood and other religiously oriented groups gain the upper hand, but the country would basically move from secular despotism to religious dictatorship.

With elections in September, there is actually not enough time to organize or to first alleviate the abject poverty. Millions of Egyptians need the basic necessities first, before thinking of exercising their right to vote.

Although political reform and human rights go handin- hand, the focus of the caretaker government should be on ensuring that basic rights are fully addressed. To start, the emergency laws should be rescinded and an end put to arbitrary detentions and torture. The ban on discrimination and free speech must be lifted. A caretaker government that immediately announces its intention to grant and guard these basic rights would provide the clearest sign that real change is at hand.

Arab leaders must also provide their young people with the education needed to compete in a global economy.

Nearly one in five – or about 100 million people – in the Middle East and North Africa are between the ages of 15 and 24. In Hosni Mubarak’s 30 years in power, he has seen the population of Egypt double. Ensuring that young people obtain an education that translates into applicable skills is critical. While there have been improved literacy rates in the Arab world, and the gap between the education of boys and girls is narrowing, these issues remain of high concern.

The Arab world can now go in one of two directions: invest in increasing school standards, teacher quality, and research and development, or continue to maintain outdated school systems which will keep the people out of work, and their nations lagging behind the rest of the world. Furthermore, with a more educated and stable region, the Middle East could become a global manufacturing center.

FINALLY, THE corruption and opulent lifestyles of Arab leaders are not new, but their people have finally had enough. Tunisia’s revolution was exacerbated by recent WikiLeaks revelations by American diplomats describing the “quasi-mafia” of Ben Ali, in which members of his extended family headed prominent government institutions.

In one cable, a diplomat described the lavish home of the president’s son-in-law, writing “there are ancient artifacts everywhere: Roman columns, frescoes, and even a lion’s head from which water pours into the pool.”

The son-in-law also owned a pet tiger. During the protests, the tiger was slaughtered, and the home ransacked.

Ben Ali was in power for 23 years, Mubarak for 30; it is too late for them to merely offer reforms that would convince their people that political accountability would be genuine.

In short, the Egyptian “revolution” has been sparked by rampant corruption, abysmal education and a severe lack of economic opportunity. Since Egypt is pivotal to regional stability, the Egyptian military – the nation’s most respected institution – must choose between perpetuating the Mubarak regime by force or answering the yearning of the people. Only the military can maintain stability, allow Mubarak to depart gracefully, ensure a smooth transition, and make the Egyptian people feel proud of their country again, while working for a better and brighter future.

The writer is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

Head of Egyptian gas co. says explosion caused by leak.

(The beleaguered Egyptian government is also denying the reports of the assassination attempt on the VP.  They have also denied sending in the organized thugs to attack the protesters in Cairo.  They have no credibility whatsoever anymore.  I believe none of the above. – JW)

The head of Egypt’s natural gas company on Saturday said a fire at a gas terminal in the northern Sinai Peninsula was caused by a gas leak.

Saturday’s fire, preceded by an explosion, did not cause casualties. However, officials had to shut off the flow of gas to neighboring Jordan and Israel to contain the blaze.

The head of the Egyptian company for natural gas, Magdy Toufik, said in a statement that the fire broke out “as a result of a small amount of gas leaking.”

Earlier, a regional governor in the Sinai, Abdel Wahab Mabrouk, told Egyptian media he suspected sabotage, but did not explain further.

Flames raged at the scene for three hours before they were successfully put out, Al-Jazeera reported.

Israeli officials said it was not clear whether the explosion affected the pipeline leading to Israel.

“At this stage, the gas supply to Israel was stopped according to procedure in emergency scenarios,” said Chen Ben Lulu, spokesman of Israel’s Infrastructure Ministry. “We are not sure what caused the explosion.”

The pipelines transport gas from Egypt’s Port Said on the Mediterranean Sea to Israel and Jordan. The gas pipeline to Jordan was damaged in the blast, according to Israel Radio.

The Prime Minister’s Office stated that “Israel is prepared for stoppages in the gas supply from Egypt and has immediate access to alternative sources of energy.”

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu met with Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau on Saturday to discuss the explosion and the subsequent cutting off of the gas supply through the pipeline.

The Infrastructure Ministry does not foresee problems with the country’s electricity supply as a result of the explosion.

Israel Radio reported that security on the country’s energy facilities has been increased in the aftermath of the El-Arish incident.

The gas pipeline has come under attack in the past.

Beduin tribesmen of the Sinai Peninsula attempted to blow up the pipeline last July as tensions intensified between them and the Egyptian government, which they accuse of discrimination and of ignoring their plight.

Russian FM opposes further sanctioning Iran.

MUNICH — Russia’s foreign minister on Saturday indicated that he opposes slapping more international sanctions on Iran in the standoff over its nuclear program.

Iran has been hit with several rounds of UN sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Teheran again rebuffed UN-drafted proposals at talks in Istanbul in January, generating speculation about more economic pressures.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Saturday that “any new proposals … would basically be aimed at suffocating the Iranian economy.”

He said that “was not part of the agreement” when the UN Security Council’s five permanent members and Germany started trying to allay doubts over Iran’s nuclear intentions with a combination of incentives and pressure.

Lavrov argues the Istanbul meeting was “not a total failure.”

Western negotiators expressed deep disappointment last month following talks with Iran in Istanbul, which ended without yielding progress or even paving the way for another round of negotiations.

“We had hoped to embark on a discussion of practical ways forward, and have made every effort to make that happen,” EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said in a statement after the conclusion of two days of discussions in Istanbul over international efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. “I am disappointed to say that this has not been possible.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 5, 2011, 2:19 PM (GMT+02:00)

Egyptian-Israel gas pipleline sabotaged

Egypt’s suspension of gas supplies to Israel after the North Sinai pipeline was blown up Saturday, Feb 5 has suddenly cut Israel off from 25-30 percent of its gas neds and 80 percent of Jordan’s. A few hours after the blast, Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq announced the gas supplied to both countries under contract would henceforth be diverted to domestic requirements.

With Egyptian gas cut off for the foreseeable future, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu went into hasty non-stop consultations with ministers and energy military and security officials. Alongside the emergency declared by Israel’s electricity corporation, those consultations centered on three additional facets of the crisis: The expanding occupation of North Sinai by Palestinian Hamas extremists from Gaza and anti-Egyptian Bedouin tribesmen, culminating in the gas pipeline explosion; the failure of joint Israeli and Egyptian military efforts to contain it and, thirdly, concerns that Hamas may cross into Israel and sabotage Israeli power stations or fuel reservoirs to bring about the collapse of Israel’s electrical power system.

The pipeline supplying Egyptian gas to Israel and Jordan was blown up near the North Sinai town of El Arish early Saturday Feb. 5.  Egyptian state TV reported “terrorists” had carried out the attack which caused a huge explosion and fire. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu conferred urgently with Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau and energy firms over the abrupt cutoff of 25 percent of Israel’s gas needs and ordered security beefed up at energy installations.

The Egyptian and Israeli accounts are contradictory.

An Israeli official spokesman said the explosion was nowhere near the Israeli section of the pipeline and closer to the Jordanian branch. The Egyptian spokesman spoke only of supplies to Israel which he said had been suspended as a precaution because there had been several smaller explosions along the pipe.

The Israeli Infrastructure Ministry spokesman reported that Egyptian gas, which covers 25 percent of Israel’s needs, had been cut off at 0900 Saturday morning. He did not foresee regular power supplies being disrupted.

debkafile‘s counter-terror sources report that the attack on the El Arish gas facility was planned on military lines by a special Hamas team which infiltrated Sinai from Gaza last week. It was a major Hamas operation against on Israel (which incidentally supplies most of the Gaza Strip’s power), and blatant Palestinian interference in Egypt’s domestic unrest. It was also a fiasco for the joint IDF-and Egyptian military effort to police Sinai during the turbulence in Egypt and secure this strategic peninsula against destabilization by terrorists.

Muslim Brotherhood spokesmen in Cairo were quick to attach responsibility for the pipeline attack on disaffected Bedouin – a clumsy attempt, say debkafile‘s sources, to clear their offshoot, Hamas, of blame for a well-planned act of which they must have had prior knowledge.

Jordan is badly hit by the loss of Egyptian gas which covers 80 percent of its energy consumption. The Hashemite kingdom will have to resort to the far more expensive heavy oil and diesel to keep its power supply running and raise fuel prices after the king yielded to Islamist-back protesters’ demands to reduce prices.

The close rapport between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist organizations came to light earlier in the Hizballah-led operation to release Lebanese Hizballah, Palestinian Hamas and Egyptian Brotherhood convicts from Wadi Natrun jail north of Cairo Sunday, Jan. 30, first revealed by debkafile.

While the Hamas and Hizballah escapees headed for Sinai and Gaza, the MB activists made straight for the hubs of disturbance in Egypt. (Click here for this story.)

The embattled Mubarak administration in Cairo may well find it politic to indefinitely put off repairing the pipe and restoring supplies to Israel for two reasons:

1. The incident will support Mubarak’s argument that his immediate departure as demanded by Obama would throw Egypt into chaos – and not only Egypt, but resonate devastatingly across the entire region. Not just Israel, but its second peace partner, Jordan, is badly hit too by the loss of Egyptian gas which covers 80 percent of its energy consumption. Amman will have to convert to the far more expensive heavy oil and diesel to keep its power supply running. Fuel prices will have to be raised shortly after the king dropped them to quell the Islamist-back protests shaking the kingdom.

2. Some of the opposition factions backed by the US for a role in future government, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, are fiercely opposed to Egypt’s peace relations with Israel which he has promoted for 32 years. The sale of Egyptian gas to Israel has come under constant attack in the street, which has accused the government of undercutting world prices and defrauding the Egyptian treasury.

The Mubarak regime and Egyptian army may want to show they respect popular opinion and are not American or Israeli pawns by not repairing the pipeline and keeping the gas supply to Israel cut off.

debkafile reports that the Israeli Infrastructure Ministry’s assurance that no power disruptions were foreseen glosses over the serious repercussions of the loss overnight of a quarter of Israel’s gas consumption for manufacturing electricity and its lack of gas reserves.

Israel’s power stations will have to switch immediately from gas to heavy oil or coal, a complicated technical process that will have a bad effect on the environment. Energy officials told debkafile Saturday that the power stations affected are Hadera, Haifa (which is partly gas-fueled) and the Tel Aviv Reading facility which was only recently converted to gas. All Israel’s emergency electricity stations are also powered by gas.

Therefore, the Infrastructure Ministry’s assurance may have been premature.

 

DEBKA.

Like most other authoritarian Middle East leaders, the ayatollahs of Iran are looking nervously over their shoulders for fear the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt may infect their own disaffected population.
They have successfully suppressed the Green opposition which first challenged the Islamic regime in mid-2009 and, in the last two months, put down the street protests against rising prices and spreading unemployment.
They achieved this by having the security forces keep a close eye on organized activity and judicious government handouts to offset soaring prices. But they are not sure for how long they can keep the lid on all Iran’s cities and villages where so many of the ingredients of the revolts that put Tunisia’s Zine Ben Ali to flight and almost felled Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak are present.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources in Tehran report that senior political and security officials have been in conference since last Tuesday, Jan. 25, the day the Egyptian troubles flared, to work on instantaneous measures for nipping similar waves of protest in the bud.
Hanging over their heads is the imminent approach of the 32nd anniversary of the Islamic Shiite Revolution on Feb. 12, for which the regime is traditionally eager to bring millions of celebrants out on the streets. This time, the authorities have received intelligence that opposition groups plan to take advantage of the event and turn it into a massive protest against the regime, primarily in Tehran. This will be hard to control when the regime itself encourages a large popular display of support for the revolution.
The regime can normally count on an army of informers to alert it in good time to avert emerging opposition activities. Following the latest tip-off, the Interior Ministry’s emergency command center has posted legions of security personnel to patrol city high streets and keep people away from the main squares. Keeping the town centers deserted is not an option for Revolution Day in eight days – or even for much longer.
Iran depends on the massive presence of informants and thugs
The emergency center plans to deploy security officials in civilian dress at strategic points inside the town squares, ready to identify and arrest on the spot instigators of anti-regime slogans and cheerleaders calling on demonstrators to chant denunciations of the regime – before any real demonstration gets underway.
From the beginning of next week, about 100,000 Basij “volunteers” – the reserve force of the Revolutionary Guards – will be brought to Tehran from villages and outlying cities. Mostly illiterate religious fanatics, these toughs have received special guidance in methods for suppressing anti-government outbreaks. They were told that enemies of the regime were essentially enemies of the Koran, Muhammad and Allah. Still they were instructed not to shoot into crowds or kill anyone – only cause enough injuries to break up a demonstration.
Tuesday, Jan. 31, Internet and mobile telephone users ran into difficulties as the authorities, like the Mubarak regime before them began disrupting the communications tools serving potential protest organizers.
The noted jurist Ardeshir Amir-Arjmand, a law professor at Tehran University and adviser to the opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mussawi, said this week: “A dictatorship is a dictatorship, whether it’s in Cairo or Tehran. He revealed something of the opposition’s secret tactics for Revolution Day when he said: “If the authorities claim that their regime is not a dictatorship, they must allow free demonstrations on the anniversary of the revolution. They will then see for themselves how little support their regime commands.” He advised Iran’s rulers “to relinquish power before it is too late.”
The conditions which infuriated Tunisians and Egyptians are present in Iran
Many of the conditions which stirred the Tunisian and Egyptian peoples into mass protest exist ostensibly in Iran too – economic hardship, for instance.
In recent months, the cancellation of subsidies caused the prices of goods and services to skyrocket. Fuel prices shot up tenfold, electricity was seven times higher and the price of bread quintupled.
To offset them, President Ahmed Ahmadinejad transferred a derisory 44,000 toman ($40) into every citizen’s bank account each month. This covers a small fraction of the price increases and so people are poorer and hungrier than ever before.
The jobless rate is much higher than in Tunisia, Egypt or any other Arab country. It is officially admitted to be 12 percent, but estimated by experts as closer to 30 percent in Tehran and among young people and university graduates as high as 50 percent.
The prevalence of galloping corruption in every government department is an open secret to the people. The regime is also weakened by a growing rupture between Ahmadinejad and parliament. It is less than seven weeks until the end of the budget year, yet the president has not yet submitted the annual budget bill to the Majlis, an unprecedented delay and an expression of Ahmadinejad’s contempt for the lawmakers.
They are more than ready for revenge for the many humiliations they have suffered at his hands. Tuesday, they mustered a majority to sack Transport Minister Hamid Behbahani, holding him responsible for several airliner crashes in which hundreds of people were killed.
Israeli spy scare covers extreme unease
The outcry against alleged Israeli spies in recent weeks is another symptom of the regime’s extreme unease.
This week, Iranian intelligence minister Heydar Moslehi again broadcast the arrest of “dozens of spies on behalf of the Zionist regime.”
Our sources say he was referring to contacts between Iranian citizens and the Born for Freedom foundation which is investigating the mystery of the Israeli navigator’s disappearance in 1986 after being shot down by Hizballah over Lebanon and other missing persons believed to have vanished in Iran. The foundation is offering a $10 million award for reliable information leading to discovering what happened to them.
The Iranian citizens who contacted the foundation were accused of spying for Israel.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s Iranian sources expect the Iranian authorities in the end to crush any opposition attempts to take over Revolution Day rallies for demonstrations massive enough to imperil the Islamic regime. However, Tunisia and Egypt have taught everyone that no one can tell when the next upheaval will erupt in the streets and squares of Tehran.