WarSclerotic

Army Chief Ashkenazi: Prepare for all-out war – Israel News, Ynetnews.

In his final days on the job, Chief of Staff Ashkenazi warns about growing radicalization in region; given recent changes across Middle East, Israel must prepare for a battle in several theaters, he says

Boaz Fyler

Given recent changes in the Middle East, Israel must prepare for a battle in several theaters, outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi said Monday at the Herzliya Conference.

“The connection between the different players requires us to contend with more than one theater,” he said.

The radical camp in the Middle East is gaining strength, Ashkenazi warned, adding that “the moderate camp among the traditional Arab leadership is weakening.” He also made note of what he characterized as the “fascinating phenomenon” whereby power is shifting to the people of the region thanks to online social networks.

Army chief warns about growing threats (Photo: Uri Porat)

The army chief said that in the wake of the growing threat of radical Islam among Israel’s neighbors, the defense budget would have to be boosted in the coming years. The main change faced by the army is the widening spectrum of threats, he said.

“Because of this spectrum, we must prepare for a conventional war…it would be a mistake to prepare for non-conventional war or limited conflicts and then expect that overnight the forces will operate in an all-out-war,” he said.

Praising Israel’s youngsters

However, Ashkenazi said that both Hamas and Hezbollah pose only a limited threat to Israel at this time.

“I do not underestimate Hamas or Hezbollah, but they cannot take over the Negev or Galilee,” he said.

Hezbollah and Hamas understood that encountering the IDF on the classic battlefields is lethal, and are therefore fighting out of urban areas, the army chief added.

Ashkenazi also praised Israel’s youths and said they possess impressive qualities despite their lowly image. The army chief also highlighted the growing desire among Israel’s youngsters to join combat units. “We are going to the schools, and I want to tell you that these young people, with the piercing and tattoos or whatever you call it, are enlisting,” he said. “These are incredibly high-quality youths.”

Analysis: Iran resumes steady atom enrichment after mystery halt | Reuters.

VIENNA (Reuters) – Iran has resumed amassing enriched uranium at a steady pace after possible cyber sabotage and a mysterious albeit brief halt in its nuclear activities late last year, diplomats and experts say.

Technical woes, toughened international sanctions and the Stuxnet computer worm may all have figured in hampering Iran’s nuclear progress, potentially pushing back estimates for when it might be able to assemble an atomic bomb if it decided to do so.

But despite such problems, the Islamic Republic is pressing ahead with its disputed nuclear energy program and its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) is continuously growing.

It is now believed to have enough material for one or two nuclear bombs if refined much further, even though it is unclear how soon it could build such a weapon, which would entail the technical feats of compressing highly-enriched uranium (HEU) into a missile cone and assembling a delivery vehicle.

Iran denies that its aim is to “weaponize” enrichment, saying it seeks only an additional source of electricity.

Assessments of delays or advances in Iran’s nuclear work have profound political significance as they can influence the amount of time major powers believe they have at their disposal to try to resolve the dispute diplomatically.

The risk of the row escalating into a military conflict appeared to recede last month when the departing head of Israeli espionage agency Mossad said Iran, the Jewish state’s arch-foe, might not have a nuclear weapon before 2015.

But that was later contradicted by the new head of Israel’s military intelligence, who said sanctions had not held up Iran’s nuclear program and it could produce bombs within two years.

“On the whole, I do have a feeling that the enrichment program is not in fantastic shape,” one senior Western diplomat said. But Iran keeps accumulating LEU and “there is no sense that … that increasing trend is under threat,” he said.

“MOUNTING SETBACKS”

Iran’s centrifuges producing enriched uranium, which can be used to fuel power plants or provide material for weapons if refined to a high degree, have been plagued by breakdowns since a rapid expansion of the process in 2007-08.

Western officials say stiffened sanctions on Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, are interfering with its enrichment program by making it more difficult to obtain vital equipment and parts from abroad.

Covert operations by Israel or the United States, which have not ruled out military action to make sure Iran does not obtain an atomic bomb, may also have damaged its atomic activities.

Speculation that the Stuxnet computer worm was a state-directed cyber attack on Iran’s Natanz enrichment site was fueled by revelations in November that it temporarily stopped refining uranium there in the middle of that month.

But the head of the U.N. atomic watchdog, which is due to issue its next, quarterly report about Iran’s nuclear program by early March, told Reuters last week that the halt lasted only for a “short period of time.”

Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said he did not know the reason for the move but that LEU production was “continuing steadily.”

He did not give details. But diplomats believe Iran stopped feeding material into its centrifuges used to make LEU for at most a few days. Iran has not commented on the incident.

“This is a very difficult facility to operate,” Amano said.

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a Washington-based think-tank, said Iran’s nuclear program was “suffering mounting setbacks,” giving more time for diplomacy.

That may well be needed. Two rounds of talks between Iran and six world powers — the United States, France, Germany, China, Russia and Britain — in December and January made no headway and ended without any agreement to meet again.

SECRET SITES?

But despite disruptions, including centrifuge breakage and the assassination of two nuclear experts in 2010, ISIS said Iran had made some progress, increasing its monthly LEU output and boosting the number of working centrifuges late last year.

The senior Western diplomat said Iran’s nuclear program presented a “patchy picture,” with both good and bad months for its LEU output. But whatever problems it might have, “when the guy has come to read the meter, it keeps on ticking over.”

Iran’s stockpile now exceeds three tonnes and it is estimated to grow by roughly 100 kg per month.

Proliferation analyst Mark Fitzpatrick said Iran experienced technical woes but that it already had a sizable amount of LEU.

“If further enriched, the current stockpile would be enough for one or two nuclear bombs,” Fitzpatrick, a former senior U.S. State Department official now at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank, said.

ISIS experts David Albright and Andrea Stricker said most analysts believed that Iran had not yet decided whether to build nuclear weapons, but that Tehran’s actions increasingly appeared to be working toward that capability.

“Predicting when Iran might obtain nuclear weapons is highly uncertain,” Albright and Stricker wrote in an analysis.

They cited U.N. experts as saying Tehran already has enough knowledge to assemble a crude weapon but that it faced problems in missile delivery. “If Iran built a secret site using more advanced centrifuges, it could be ready to build a bomb as soon as 2012 or 2013,” Albright and Stricker added.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Egypt: Investigator says pipeline explosion caused by bomb.

The chief investigator into the gas terminal explosion in Egypt’s northern Sinai Peninsula said it was caused by four masked gunmen who set off a bomb.

Egyptian Judge Abdel Nasser el-Tayeb said in a report Monday that the terminal’s guards testified that the men stormed the terminal in two cars, briefly restrained the guards and then set off the explosives by remote control.

Egypt’s natural gas company had blamed the Saturday blast on a gas leak.

The blast and fire at the gas terminal in the Sinai town of El-Arish did not cause casualties.

The explosion sent a pillar of flames leaping into the sky, but was a safe distance from the nearest homes, said regional governor Abdel Wahab Mabrouk on Saturday. He added the fire was brought under control by mid-morning, after valves controlling the flow of gas were closed.

The terminal is part of a pipeline system that transports gas from Egypt’s Port Said, on the Mediterranean Sea, to Israel, Syria and Jordan. The Sinai Peninsula, home to Beduin tribesmen, has been the scene of clashes between residents and security forces.

‘Turkey and Iran to triple bilateral trade despite nuclear sanctions’ – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iranian FM says two countries determined to raise trade relations to $30 billion in five years, in areas such as transport, industry and customs.

By Reuters

Turkey and Iran aim to triple their bilateral trade to $30 billion in five years, Iran’s foreign minister was reported as saying, despite U.S. attempts to constrict ties between Tehran and its closest neighbors.

NATO member Turkey and Iran, its second biggest gas supplier, have built up strong trade and political ties over the last decade to the concern of Washington, which has pushed an international campaign to isolate Tehran over its disputed nuclear program.

	Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (R) and his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi in Ankara on Jan. 17, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

“There is a political determination in the two countries to develop relations further,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, was quoted by state-run Anatolian news agency as saying on Sunday, when Turkey and Iran signed a joint economic commission accord in Tehran.

The cooperation talks spanned areas such as transport, industry and customs, Anatolian said.

Turkish State Minister Cevdet Yilmaz also set a target of $30 billion trade volume, without specifying a time frame.

Their bilateral trade volume rose to $10.7 billion last year from about e1 billion in 2000, Yilmaz said. Turkey’s exports to Iran stood at $3.44 billion last year, making it Turkey’s 10th biggest export market.

Washington has increased pressure on Ankara to enforce sanctions against Iran.

Turkey says it observes United Nations sanctions against Iran but declares it is not obligated to adhere to a separate U.S. embargo that targets Iranian energy.

The U.S. Treasury last week blacklisted six individuals and five business entities in Iran and Turkey for providing materials and support to Iran’s ballistic missile development efforts.

Western powers suspect Iran is trying to secretly build a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran denies.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 7, 2011, 1:47 PM (GMT+02:00)

Special Lebanon Tribunal jumps the gun on Hizballah

With no end of the Egyptian standoff in sight, a showdown in Lebanon looms large: Within days, the UN Special Lebanon Tribunal’sPretrial Judge Daniel Fransen is scheduled to publish indictments based on the findings of Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare’s probe of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafiq Hariri in 2005, debkafile‘s intelligence sources report.

The court’s accelerated schedule has caught suspects, chiefly security big shots of the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah, unprepared. There is not much it can do but openly flout the court’s expected summons for their extradition by force of arms.
The international judges have jumped the gun not only for Hizballah but also for its bosses in Damascus and Tehran and even up to a point in Washington, which has supported the court’s work but had hoped indictments would not be ready for some months. The last thing the Obama administration needs at this moment is a second Middle East bonfire.
But whether they like it or not, Monday, Feb. 7, the Special Tribunal held is first hearing in Leidschendam near The Hague.

It was called by STL President Antonio Cassese to address questions of legality and procedure raised by the pretrial judge Fransen. Monday’s session was to withhold the names of individuals contained in the sealed indictment document Bellemare filed with Fransen on Jan. 17. This and future sessions will be held in public, so the full list of accused may be only be a week or ten days away from release.

This finds the carefully crafted plan put together by Iran, Syria and Hizballah to make sure that point was never reached coming undone at the seams: They managed to get rid of pro-Western Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and replace him with Najib Miqati, friend to Hizballah and Syrian leaders, whose first task was to have been to disqualify the STL, nullify its indictments and sever ties with the tribunal.  But their handpicked candidate for prime minister has not managed to form a government because of three obstacles:

1.  Lebanese President Michel Suleiman insists he will only endorse a national unity administration, which would necessitate the participation of Saad Hariri’s March 14 bloc.

2.  Suleiman wants a March 14 candidate – not a Miqati man – appointed Interior Minister to head the most powerful government department which holds the levers of the national domestic security and intelligence services> He also has the authority to declare a national state of emergency.
3.  Miqati is not eager to head a narrow-based government either, because it would expose him as a Syrian-Hizballah rubber stamp and he would be ostracized by the United States and much of the West.

The Iran-Syrian-Hizballah alliance has consequently lost its race to beat the international Hariri tribunal to the draw. The court has begun its hearings, presenting them with a fait accompli.

Hizballah may still cast about for a fast worker to take over from Migati and rush a new government through or, alternatively, exercise force to seize control of Beirut and the government institutions and establish an alternative “Free Lebanon” administration that announce the severance ties with the STL.

These options are fraught with the threat of civil violence.