WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

(While this does not relate to Iran,  if Egypt’s pro-Western government were to fall, Israel would be facing radical Islam not only from Hezbollah, but from its Southerner border as well.  Obama’s Mid-East policy is in a shambles, and Israel will be the one paying the price. – JW)

DEBKAfile Special Report January 27, 2011, 10:15 AM (GMT+02:00)

Egyptian Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has sent his defense minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi to Washington with an urgent request for US backing for his embattled regime against the street protest movement which gained in violence on its second day, Wednesday, Jan. 26.  debkafile‘s Washington sources report that in secret meetings, the Egyptian defense minister put the situation before President Barack Obama and a row of top US political, military and intelligence officials. He warned them that by advocating a soft hand with the demonstrators and responsiveness to their demands, American officials were doing more harm than good. Without a crackdown, he said, the regime was doomed.

Tantawi also warned that the radical Muslim Brotherhood, which has stood aside from the opposition protests, was merely biding its time for the right moment to step in and take over. He asked the Obama administration for an urgent airlift of advanced riot control equipment.

The American response to the case presented by Tantawi is not known. Disclosure of his trip to Washington might well add fuel to the fires of disaffection burning in cities across Egypt. The protests are spearheaded by a youth opposition coalition whose members are proud of their Arab and Egyptian identity. Evidence of the regime’s collaboration with a foreign power may well heighten their resolve to battle the regime and the million security services agents which Mubarak put on the streets Wednesday.
Slogans of “US out” and “Death to the US” have begun to appear on anti-Mubarak placards.

Wednesday night, debkafile reported:
The level of anti-government protest and violence escalated in the streets of Egyptian cities Wednesday night, Jan. 26 even after President Hosni Mubarak ordered a million security officers to back up the police and for the first time open fire on rioters in the town of Suez, leaving scores of dead and wounded. Western sources told debkafile that security forces lost control of the situation in the main Suez Canal port after protesters managed to break through a line of police defending the suburb housing government institutions and set them on fire.

They torched police headquarters and the regional premises of Mubarak’s ruling NDP.

The president who has not been seen in public since the outbreaks broke out Tuesday has placed four armored divisions on emergency standby and cancelled all leaves – two on operational preparedness outside Cairo and two near the towns on the banks of the Suez Canal. Officers and men on furlough were ordered back to their bases.

Security forces have made some 2,500 arrests of opposition activists without managing to quell the unrest. debkafile‘s sources report that the situation in Cairo Wednesday was extremely tense after thousands of demonstrators poured into the streets and made for the Tel Talat Harb Square on the way to Liberation Square city center, where 30,000 protesters gathered Tuesday. A demonstrator and a policeman were killed in clashes, raising the number of fatalities in two days to six, as police failed to stem the advancing tide.
Our sources also report from Western sources in Cairo that some 500 journalists are locked in the building of the press association in the capital, including many foreign correspondents. Security officers burst into the building, collected the journalists in the lower flowers of the building and prevented them from covering events, reporting or taking photos.

 

Analysis: Western Naval Fleets Heading to Lebanon – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

Elias Bejjani is spokesman for the Canadian Lebanese Human Rights Federation (CLHRF) and Media Chairman for the Canadian Lebanese Coordinating Council (LCCC).

Hizbullah, the armed Iranian-Syrian terrorist proxy, is resorting to all sorts of force, terrorism, intimidation, threats, bribery, division, sectarianism and instigation to install a new puppet government in Lebanon after toppling the Hariri national unity government January 13, in response to direct orders from its two Axis of Evil supporters, Syria and Iran.

In a report that was published Tuesday in the Kuwaiti daily Alseyiasi, veteran analyst and journalist Hamid Gheriafi wrote that many Western and Arabic countries have been lately issuing urgent travel warnings.

They have cautioned their citizens who are residing in Lebanon to take the highest required measures to avoid being targeted by Syria’s and Hizbullah’s armed groups and advising them not to travel deep into Lebanon’s southern and Bekaa Valley regions or to go to Beirut areas, where there are Sunni Shiite tensions.

The report stated that the whole democratic and Free World and the majority of the Arab countries are extremely concerned that Tehran’s and Damascus’s allies could take full control of the Lebanese state and all of its institutions, including both the army and internal security forces.

The United States, European countries, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and many other countries have been conducting around the clock consultations on the highest level to abort this vicious Syrian-Iranian scheme. The Syrian-Iran full control of Lebanon will impose a dire threat to all the Arab countries, Israel, and Europe.

Gheriafi learned from reliable European Intelligence sources in Brussels that at least two well-equipped Western military fleets were urgently ordered to move from the Arabian Gulf to positions close to both Syria and Lebanon in the Mediterranean Sea.

They carried strict instructions to fully monitor and watch the unfolding events in Lebanon, especially in case Hizbullah, backed by Syria and Iran, succeeds in taking over the new Lebanese government.

The intelligence sources did not unveil the identity of the Western fleets but confirmed that they comprise two nuclear aircraft carriers with 210 jet fighter planes on board, and more than 30 ships carrying about 5,800 marines armed with the latest technologies.

The same sources said that the Israeli air and navy forces have been on a high alert status since last Friday after Lebanon’s Druze Leader, MP Walid Jumblatt, decided to join Hezbollah and Syria with his parliamentary bloc. His support gave them the upper hand and a parliamentary majority that enables them to form a new pro-Syrian and -Iranian government, killing all chances for caretaker PM Sa’ad Hariri to return as a prime minister.

A new Hizbullah-controlled government will cut all Lebanon’s legal and financial relations with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and force the country to fully join the Axis of Evil terrorist front comprised of Syria, Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah. The STL is expected to indict members from Hizbullah, Iran and Syria for the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and dozens of high ranking Lebanese politicians, clergy, journalists and intellectuals.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, his deputy and other high ranking officials expressed their very serious concerns in regard to the looming possibility that Lebanon will have a pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian government fully controlled by the terrorist Hizbullah and its allies.

The U.S. administration and both Houses of Congress are looking seriously into the dreadful hazards that could affect both the peace process and stability in the Middle East, in case Hizbullah succeeds in forming and fully controlling Lebanon’s new government. The Obama administration will most probably halt all kinds of aid to Lebanon and even impose harsh sanctions.

In this same context, all the 18 countries with troops participating in the UNIFIL forces deployed in South Lebanon on the Lebanese-Israeli border are extremely concerned about their safety. These countries are definitely going to reevaluate their participation in UNIFIL, as well as their aid to Lebanon once Hezbollah’s government is in office.

In conclusion: The Free World and the Arabic countries have an obligation to help the Lebanese people by all available means, including military forces in a bid to stop Iran and Syria, through its armed terrorist proxy, Hizbullah, from taking over Lebanon and turning it into an arena for evil wars against all the democracies in the world.

The confrontation with the Axis of Evil is inevitable and now it is the right time to act before it is too late and before a new Nazi dragon starts goose stepping in to devour all the Arab countries and Europe.

Logistics: Israel Digs In For The Big One.

January 26, 2011: Israel has ordered its military to fortify critical military installations against missile and rocket attack. This would mean a lot more underground (or partially so) storage facilities. Last year the military was ordered to disperse its stocks of supplies, equipment and spare parts to a larger number of (better protected) locations. Apparently, it was later determined that putting more stuff in bunkers was also necessary. This fortification program will begin next year.All this is old news for Israeli civilians. Fourteen years ago, Israel decided to upgrade its civil defense arrangements. As part of that effort, they passed a law mandating that new houses have at least one “bomb proof” safe room, to be used as a shelter during rocket attacks. But most builders have ignored the law. It’s expensive. To add such a room to existing houses costs about $25,000 per home. But many Israelis have designated one room in the house as the “safe room”, and perhaps reinforced it a bit, and stored emergency supplies there. But the danger is growing, and for the last five years Israel has accelerated the upgrading of defenses against rocket and missile attack.

In addition to rockets fired by Hamas and Hezbollah, there is also concern that Syria would fire larger, and longer range, rockets armed with explosive or chemical warheads. Hamas has several thousand, mostly short (under 20 kilometers range) rockets stockpiled, while Hezbollah up in Lebanon is believed to have 40,000 rockets stored and ready to fire near the Israeli border. But Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria also have over a 1,500 larger rockets that can reach anywhere in Israel.

Syria has underground storage and launch facilities for its arsenal of over a thousand SCUD missiles. Armed with half ton high explosive or cluster bomb warheads, the missiles have ranges of 500-700 kilometers. Syria also has some 90 older Russian Frog-7 missiles (70 kilometer range, half ton warhead) and 210 more modern Russian SS-21 missiles (120 kilometer range, half ton warhead) operating with mobile launchers. There are also 60 mobile SCUD launchers. The Syrians have a large network of camouflaged launching sites for the mobile launchers. Iran and North Korea have helped Syria build underground SCUD manufacturing and maintenance facilities. The Syrian missiles are meant to hit Israeli airfields, missile launching sites and nuclear weapons sites, as well as population centers. Syria hopes to do enough damage with a missile strike to cripple Israeli combat capability.

Currently, the Israelis estimate that there would be as many as 3,300 Israeli casualties (including up to 200 dead) if Syria tried to use its long range missiles and explosive warheads against Israel. If the Syrians used chemical warheads, Israeli casualties could be as high as 16,000. Over 200,000 Israelis would be left homeless, and it’s believed about a 100,000 would seek to leave the country.

Analysis: Concern, but also opportunity in Lebanon.

In January 2006, after Hamas won general elections in the Palestinian Authority, Israeli intelligence officials spoke of a jealous Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah who was watching Ismail Haniyeh become prime minister as he continued moving among his different hideouts in Beirut as the head of a so-called guerrilla organization.

Following Tuesday’s announcement that Hizbullah confidant Najib Mikati would form the next Lebanese government, there is no question that Nasrallah is no longer the jealous one. Haniyeh is confined to the Gaza Strip, where he is busy trying to solidify his regime in the wake of Operation Cast Lead and continued diplomatic isolation. Nasrallah, on the other hand, got to play kingmaker in Lebanon on Tuesday.

For Israel, this is a troubling development and an example of how Iran is tightening its grip on Lebanon. It also demonstrates the continued formation of a Shi’ite crescent which begins in Iran, continues to Syria and ends in Lebanon.

A government led by Hizbullah will likely remove any prospect of a future normalization of ties with Israel and make even basic moves like the implementation of an Israeli withdrawal from the split town of Ghajar more difficult.

On the other hand, Hizbullah’s effective takeover of Lebanon also creates a window of opportunity for Israel and could actually bolster its deterrence and force Hizbullah to be more restrained.

From a military perspective, a Lebanon controlled by Hizbullah potentially changes the bank of targets Israel will have at its disposal in the event of a future war with the guerrilla group.

In the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006, Israel, for the most part, refrained from bombing Lebanese national infrastructure, as well as government and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) targets. Israel was willing to make the distinction in 2006, since it understood that Lebanon as a country was being held hostage by Hizbullah the guerrilla group.

This changed slightly after the war when Hizbullah entered the government, but on Tuesday it went a step further.

A future war with Hizbullah – either as a result of an Israeli attack on Iran, or unrelated – would be met by a different Israeli military response, one that could really set Lebanon back by several decades this time, as chief of General Staff Lt.- Gen. (res.) Dan Halutz threatened after reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were kidnapped on July 12, 2006.

Hizbullah’s position in the government will restrain the guerrilla group. Now that it is not only part of the government, but basically the official leader of Lebanon with a prime minister in Nasrallah’s pocket, Hizbullah will have to think twice before launching an attack against Israel – one that would bring devastating consequences to the Land of Cedars.

Air Force expands its UAV capabilities.

The IAF will inaugurate a new squadron of unmanned aerial vehicles in the coming months, in an effort to boost its intelligence-gathering capabilities.

The squadron will operate the Heron, made by Israel Aerospace Industries, which is capable of remaining in the air for two days without refueling. By comparison, a previous UAV used by the IAF, the Searcher Mk. II, can only remain airborne for 12 hours.

The Heron can fly at altitudes of 30,000 feet, making it a difficult target for standard anti-aircraft weapons.

It has the ability to carry a 250 kg. payload, compared to 100 kg. for the Searcher.

The Heron has a wingspan of 16.6 m. and weighs 1,200 kg., with an operation range of hundreds of kilometers – and the ability to fly in all weather conditions, during the day and night.

The new squadron will be a drone unit operated by the IAF.

Late last month, the air force launched the squadron – which operates the Heron TP, one of the largest UAV’s in the world – which is also made by Israel Aerospace Industries, and has a wingspan of 26 m.

The IAF’s other squadrons operate the Heron, as well as Elbit Systems’s Hermes 450.

In recent years, UAVs have played a dominant role in IAF operations on various fronts – primarily in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip – and account for a quarter of the IAF’s overall flight hours.

The drones are frequently used for reconnaissance and surveillance. According to foreign news reports, some of the UAVs used by the IAF also have the ability to fire air-to-surface missiles.

Israel Aerospace Industries is a world leader in the development of UAVs, and a number of NATO countries currently operate its systems in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Last week, the Singapore press reported that the Asian island country was operating IAI’s Searcher UAV in Afghanistan.

According to the report, the Singaporean troops were operating four Searcher UAV systems in Afghanistan.

MI head: Iran sanctions not affecting nuke program.

Head of Military Intelligence to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi on Tuesday said that sanctions imposed against the Iranian government have not harmed the country’s nuclear program or the strengthening of its military.

“The Iranian regime is maintaining stability despite the sanctions,” Kohavi explained. “It is maintaining its basis for its strength and the sanctions do not harm its nuclear program and the strengthening of its military.”

However, Kohavi explained that the sanctions have caused “an economic burden.” Economic sanctions have “resulted in it [Iran] only being able to supply its people with 25 percent of its gas. The Iranian regime recently drastically cut substantial gas subsidies to the people. Iran has made NIS 600 million from the rise in the price of gas, but it is not enough to make up from what they lost from the sanctions,” Kohavi continued.

‘Qom continues to be built’

“The sanctions have had an impact on the Iranian economy, but they have had no impact on Iran’s nuclear program,” Kohavi said. “Until now 3.2 tons of low-enriched uranium at 3% enrichment, 40,000 at 20%. Qom continues to be built and in 2011 will be filled with centrifuges.”

Addressing the timetable as to when Teheran will be capable of creating a nuclear weapon, Kohavi emphasized that, “The question is not when Iran will have a bomb but rather how much time until the leader decides to escalate to 90% [enrichment]. Based on their [the Iranian] infrastructure and the technical know-how and uranium they have, within a year or two after he [Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] makes that decision, they will have nuclear weapons. This timetable is not relevant for a nuclear missile since which can take a number of years,” Kohavi added.

Kohavi continued: “A decision of a leader to begin the race to finish the project is breaking with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and endangering themselves before the international community before increased steps like sanctions and military action.”

‘Iranian instability’

“Considering all of Iran’s considerations,” Kohavi told the FADC, “they [the Iranian government] do not intend to go forward and upgrade in 2011. This is because of the instability in Iran and the religious tension in the country in light of [Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei knowing that breaking it [the NPT] would harm Iran critically and open the country to a military strike.”

“Bushehr today is active today for civil capabilities and also has symbolic status,” Kohavi said. “With technical expertise, it can also be used to create materials that can be used on Iran.”

“A month ago, India joined the sanctions,” continued Kohavi. “The fact that last week’s talks failed will lead to the world escalating the sanctions. Iran got to the negotiations with the international community with great self-confidence. Today in the world, there is a growing understanding that Iran is seeking a nuclear military capability. However the world believes there is more time to deal with the threat.”

Hezbollah’s candidate to form Lebanese government – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Najib Mikati wins majority of parliament support in two days of voting. Caretaker prime minister urges calm after his supporters set fire to vehicle used by al-Jazeera television network during protests in northern city of Tripoli

News agencies

The candidate for prime minister backed by Iranian-allied Hezbollah won support from lawmakers Tuesday to form Lebanon’s next government, a choice that set off a “day of rage” by Sunnis who burned tires and a van belonging to Al-Jazeera to protest the Shiite militant group’s rising power.

Billionaire businessman and former premier Najib Mikati won a majority of parliament support in two days of voting, defeating Western-backed Prime Minister Saad Hariri as the candidate for the next prime minister. The president will now ask Mikati to try to form a new government that could be controlled by Hezbollah and its allies and give the group an unprecedented level of political power in Lebanon.

Lebanon’s Saad Hariri said on Tuesday he rejected forms of violence and called for calm after his supporters took to the streets in protest against Hezbollah’s nomination of Mikati.

“My call for you is a national call. You are angry but you are responsible people. I understand your feelings,” he told supporters in a televised speech.

“This anger should not lead us to what disagrees with our values … our belief that democracy is our refuge,” he said.

Hariri’s supporters set fire to a vehicle used by Arab television channel al-Jazeera during protests in the northern city of Tripoli on Tuesday, witnesses said.

Journalists from the channel and other reporters said they were taking refuge in a nearby building.

“If the army does not hurry up and help us, we will be in danger,” al-Jazeera reporter Majed Abdel-Hadi said in a live call broadcast by the channel.

Thousands of Hariri loyalists called for a “day of rage” after Hezbollah and its allies, who toppled Hariri’s government two weeks ago in a dispute about indictments in the investigation of his father’s killing, won support for Mikati to replace him.

“Sunni blood is boiling”, chanted some protesters, burning pictures of Mikati, a Sunni, and waving blue flags of Hariri’s Future Movement, which says it will not serve in any government dominated by the militant Shiite group.

Al-Jazeera vehicle torched (Photo: Al-Jazeera)

Lebanon’s power-sharing political system calls for the post of prime minister to be held by a Sunni, and Hariri supporters said any figure who accepted the nomination from Hezbollah to form a new government would be considered a traitor.

In southern Beirut, protesters blocked a road with burning tyres and overturned garbage containers, and a security source said shots were fired in the air when the army intervened. No injuries were reported.

Lebanon’s President Michel Suleiman started a second day of consultations on Tuesday with Lebanese parliamentarians to name a prime minister to lead the new government.

Mikati has secured the crucial backing of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, swinging the balance of power in his favour and won endorsement on Tuesday from another prominent Sunni politician, Mohammed Safadi.

Hezbollah and its allies walked out of Hariri’s unity government on Jan. 12 in a dispute over still confidential indictments by a UN-backed tribunal which is investigating the 2005 killing of statesman Rafik al-Hariri, the premier’s father.

The political deadlock has deepened sectarian divisions in Lebanon, and Hariri supporters protested in several cities on Monday, burning tyres and blocking streets.

Politicians allied to Hezbollah have said the first priority of a government they form would be to cut links with the tribunal, which is expected to accuse Hezbollah members of involvement in the 2005 killing. Hezbollah denies any role.

The demonstrators in Tripoli called for Mikati, a telecoms tycoon who comes from the northern port city, to withdraw his nomination and said the investigation in Rafik Hariri’s killing could not be blocked.

One poster read, “Tripoli will not accept the overthrow of the international tribunal.”

AP and Reuters contributed to his report

Bill: Ban contact with firms working in Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

At least 30 MKs on board with Economics Committee chairman’s bill proposing to prohibit Israeli companies, citizens from maintaining contact with companies which trade in weapons, energy fields with Islamic Republic

Roni Sofer

Chairman of the Knesset’s Economics Committee MK Carmel Shama (Likud) submitted a bill Monday banning Israeli organizations and private citizens from engaging in business contact with Iran or companies that trade with it, directly or indirectly, in the fields of weapons and energy.

The bill, which will be presented to the Ministerial Committee on Legislative Affairs early next week, has already earned the support of 30 MKs from all Knesset factions.

Shama explained the basis for the bill: “Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair called his country to ‘take its head out of the sand’ this week and prepare for a conflict with Iran. Our own Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted last week that the world’s main concern is Iran. The US and Europe prohibit any contact with companies working in Iran, but strangely Israel, which supports boosting financial pressure on the Islamic Republic, has yet to legislate such a law.”

The MK further added that the bill aims to prevent a situation similar to that noted two months ago when outgoing Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer ordered to freeze a contract between the Israel Electripc Corporation and a Danish company which was found to be trading with Iran.

Among the MKs who endorse the new bill are Nachman Shai, Eitan Cabel, Otniel Schneller, David Rotem and Alex Miller.

Punishment: 1 year in prison

According to the bill, any Israeli citizen or company owner found to be engaging in business contact with Iranian bodies will be sentenced to one year in prison and a NIS 5 million ($1.39 million) fine or three times the expected profit from the deal.

The bill aims to prevent oil and gas companies with Iranian ties entering the Israeli drilling market. It targets small companies, some of which drill in Iran and are currently able to obtain a license to drill in Israel.

“This is a very important bill. There is a growing trend of mega European companies halting business in Iran and it is unthinkable that Israel be any different,” Michele Gur Arie, director of the Israel lobby in Europe said. “Israel is currently shooting itself in the leg. There is talk in Europe that there are Israeli companies that trade with Iran via third parties and this disrupts the promotion and enforcement of the sanctions.”

Lebanon: Tensions mount as Hezbollah promotes PM candidate – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Estimates say Shiite movement will secure parliament majority needed to appoint businessman Najib Mikati as next Lebanese prime minister on Tuesday. PM Saad Hariri’s supporters declare ‘day of rage’, expected to hit streets

Roee Nahmias

Lebanon may mark an historic day Tuesday as Hezbollah scrambles to secure a majority for its candidate for prime minister. Should the group succeed, caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Hezbollah’s arch nemesis, will be forced to step down.

Hezbollah has thus far managed to obtain the support of 59 parliament members for business tycoon Najib Mikati, while Hariri has the support of only 49 lawmakers.

It is estimated that the Shiite group will manage to secure the rest of the necessary votes as part of two days of consultations conducted by Lebanese President Michel Suleiman. In order to earn the right to form a government one of the candidates will have to secure a 65 vote majority out of the parliament’s 128 seats. The Hezbollah camp is only six votes away from their goal, which is estimated to be reached Tuesday.On Monday, riots broke out in the northern Lebanese city of Triopli. Sunni demonstrators torched tires in protest of Mikati’s candidacy.

Hariri supporters burn tires in Lebanon (Photo: Reuters)

Also Monday, Sunni parliament members declared a series of protest events as part of a “day of rage” to be held across Lebanon on Tuesday. “Hezbollah is trying to hand over control of the prime minister’s bureau to Iran,” they warned. A statement issued by the protest organizers said: “Any person who will accept Hezbollah’s prime minister’s appointment will be considered a traitor.” Mustafa Alush, a parliament member from Hariri’s camp said in a press conference that the Sunnis oppose the “Persian patronage” in Lebanon but stressed that protest events scheduled for Tuesday will be calm in nature. Recent protests in Lebanon are particularly noteworthy as such outrage has yet to be seen in Lebanon over the process of forming a government.Meanwhile, Hariri continues to stand his ground and has not lifted his candidacy in favor of an alternative candidate who will be acceptable on both camps. “There is one candidate whose name is Saad Hariri and one candidate on behalf of March 8 (nickname for the Hezbollah camp),” he said. He also stressed his faction will not be part of any government formed by Mikati.

Going home? Hariri supporters kisses sign (Photo: Reuters)

Last week, 11 Hezbollah ministers resigned from Hariri’s government and effectively toppled it. This was an act of protest over Hariri’s refusal to withdraw his support from an international tribunal investigating his father’s murder, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The tribunal is expected to indict Hezbollah militants for the assassination. The indictments were filed last week, but it won’t be for another few weeks before their content is officially exposed to the public.On Sunday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah claimed that Hariri’s supporters were trying to “politically assassinate” his movement.

“We have noticed recently that the matter of the indictments has been accelerated in order to put pressure on us and our allies out of political aims. After the indictments are filed we will not capitulate to any political conditions imposed on us,” Nasrallah said.

He also thanked Druze leader Walid Jumblatt for his support of the Hezbollah candidate.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report January 25, 2011, 9:51 AM (GMT+02:00)

Najib Mikati, Iranian-Syrian appointee as Lebanese PM

The two days Iran’s new foreign minister Ali Salehi spent in Damascus from Saturday night, Jan. 22, were enough to keep Syrian president Bashar Assad in place for Tehran’s final steps in its grab for Lebanon: the installation of a puppet government in Beirut, debkafile‘s intelligence sources report.

Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s performance Sunday, Jan. 23, was a crucial piece of misdirection: He stepped out of character to call in dulcet tones for a unity government in Beirut. This sounded as though he was following Assad’s orders last week to go for a broad coalition which left the prime minister he toppled Saad Hariri out in the cold and strengthened Syrian influence in Beirut. But meanwhile, a parliamentary majority had been put together to install as prime minister Najib Mikati, a 55-year old Lebanese tycoon, who was willing to pledge in advance to cut Beirut’s ties with the UN tribunal – STL – investigating the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri and declare its summonses and rulings null and void.

Mikati has built a business empire in Europe, Africa and the Middle East through his personal connections with the Syrian president and Hizballah leader and the use of their intelligence facilities to promote his interests. He was awarded the premiership in return for a commitment to disqualify the STL as his first order of business, thereby saving Iran, Damascus and Hizballah the embarrassment of a head-on clash with the international court over its summonses – not only for the extradition of Hizballah’s top security officials, but also against Iranian and Syrian regime officials suspected of complicity in the Hariri assassination.

By having the duly appointed Lebanese prime minister delegitimize the tribunal, all three can insist they are obliged to disobey its decrees in respect of the Lebanese government and the will of its people and barred from following the orders of a body declared illegitimate and operating at the behest of Washington and Tel Aviv.

By a single stroke, therefore, Tehran has checked one of President Barack Obama’s most critical Middle East policy moves, one which hinged on support for the Hariri tribunal and the strengthening of a pro-West administration in Beirut. Instead, Washington wakes up to find an Iranian puppet ruling Lebanon. Tehran accomplished this two days after fatally stalling the world powers’ attempt to bring Iran around to a diplomatic resolution of its drive toward a nuclear bomb. In two days of talks with six powers in Istanbul, ending Friday, Jan. 21, the Iranian delegation refused to budge an inch.

A day later, Iran’s foreign minister was already in Damascus tying up the ends of its grab for Lebanon.

Monday night, realizing the Mikati appointment was in the bag, supporters of the ousted prime minister Saad Hariri and his March 14 alliance, were out in the streets, burning tires, firing off shots and trying to block the highways from Beirut to the north, south and east to Damascus. They declared Tuesday, Jan. 25, a day of anger and called for mass rallies in support of their pro-Western leader.

But there is not much they can do beyond this for three reasons:

1. The Sunnis and Christians who find themselves in opposition a Shiite-dominated government backed will be reluctant to go all the way and ignite another civil war of which Lebanon has had more than its fill – especially when the national army will obey the pro-Iranian government.

2.  Although the Obama administration pledged its support for Saad Hariri in his struggle against Hizballah, Tehran and Damascus, and Friday, Jan. 21, the USS Strike Force with 6,000 marines and sailors aboard moved into place opposite Lebanese shores, not a single marine has landed in Beirut to save the day. And Tehran was not impressed.

Two days later, Iran dared the US, Israel and Egypt to do their worst by provocatively announcing the dispatch of an Iranian war fleet to the Red Sea, Suez Canal and Mediterranean. (Click here for debkafile report.)

3.  The Netanyahu government, though aware of the tectonic change making its northern neighbor an Iranian vassal, refrained from even a demonstrative step that might have made Iran and Syria hesitate before going through with the total subjection of Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt likewise, though heads of the moderate Arab Sunni bloc of nations committed to curbing radical Iran’s domination of the Middle East, have held silent and not lifted a finger to help their Arab ally survive the pro-Shiite tide swamping Lebanon.