WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 13, 2011, 9:41 AM (GMT+02:00)

Lebanese crisis over STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen

President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are determined to bring Hizballah officials to justice for their involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut five years ago – even after they toppled the Lebanese government by their ministers’ walkout Wednesday, Jan. 12. If a transitional government in Beirut declares the international tribunal – STL – invalid and refuses to honor its summonses for Hizballah security officials, Washington intends to obtain authorization for trying Hizballah suspects in absentia, debkafile‘s Washington sources report.

Hizballah and its Iranian backers would be cornered into deciding between intensifying the crisis in Lebanon or accepting international isolation.

Saad Hariri’s government fell while he was closeted with Obama in the White House Wednesday. He flew out of Washington and decided to stop over Thursday in Paris.
Last month, the administration assigned Jeffrey Feltman, Assistant Secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, to exploring with the United Nations the possibility of staging a trial in abstentia for Hizballah defendants refusing to appear in court. This procedure would break new ground in that it would make it possible for the first time to try missing defendants accused of assassination and terrorism.
The Hizballah case would therefore provide a landmark for trying fugitive leaders of Al Qaeda, Taliban and other radical Islamic terrorist organizations with known identities. International arrest warrants would override claims by countries like Pakistan and Iran that the whereabouts of wanted defendants are unknown. In this way, Osama bin Laden, Taliban leader Mullah Omar and others could be brought to justice in their absence on the basis of US and other intelligence data.

Our Washington sources report that the administration decided on this course after being convinced that

Special Lebanon Tribunal Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare had solid evidence against at least six high-ranking Hizballah security and intelligence officers – over and above records of cell phone conversations they made during the commission of the Hariri assassination in February 2005. In addition to those records, the international prosecutor has also obtained testimony from witnesses and documents which it has kept under close wraps until now.

The Obama administration believes that after Bellemare submits the results of his investigation and conclusions to the STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen, the judge will issue a brief, dry statement saying that the investigation has concluded and its findings have been submitted and are now under his review – without revealing their content.

It will then be up to the judge to decide how long he needs to study the file and when to issue extradition warrants. This will give Washington time to have the trial in absentia procedure approved by the bodies responsible for the international tribunal.

The Lebanese crisis which erupted dramatically Wednesday, Jan 12 (click here for the debkafile report which first broke the story) may therefore drag on for months.
For fear of further Hizballah violence, our sources in Beirut report that the members of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s close circle started taking precautions in the last week of December. Many of them took advantage of the holiday season to send their families out of the country to the US or Europe on “extended vacations” or in remote corners of Lebanon. Bodyguards were hurriedly hired.

Israel’s Nuclear Option in Iran by Bennett Ramberg – Project Syndicate.

Bennett Ramberg

LOS ANGELES – Revelations in former President George W. Bush’s recently published memoirs show that he declined an Israeli request to destroy Syria’s secret nuclear reactor in the spring of 2007. While the revelation may appear merely to be a historical footnote, more profoundly it raises new uncertainty about whether Israel now thinks that it can rely on the United States to apply military force to stop Iran’s nuclear program should diplomacy fail. The Syrian episode suggests that it cannot, which means that Israel may decide to go it alone once again, this time to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities.

If Israel did so, however, it would confront a conundrum. Unlike the attack on Syria’s nuclear plant, Israel’s conventional forces do not have the capacity to destroy Iran’s suspect installations. Portions of Iran’s nuclear program may be too heavily bunkered, dispersed, or concealed. This raises the question of whether Israel’s repeated refrain that “all options are on the table” implies that even a nuclear strike is possible. Israel’s nuclear history provides no clear answer, but the future may force the issue.

Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, let alone the size and scope of its arsenal. Israeli policymakers refuse to talk about the subject. Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, never discusses the program or appropriates money for it. Military censors quash public discourse about it.

Yet American and other intelligence services and strategic-research institutes around the world all agree that Israel possesses nuclear weapons. They disagree about how many, with estimates ranging broadly, from 40 to more than 400 warheads.

Israel’s reluctance to rattle its nuclear saber, even in dire circumstances, adds to the mystery. In the Yom Kippur War, as Syrian forces threatened to break the country’s defensive lines, Israeli decision-makers recoiled even from threatening to use nuclear weapons.

While Israel keeps its bomb in the basement, it has a long history of stopping its adversaries. As Iraq moved to complete the Osirak reactor by the early 1980’s, Israel applied diplomatic pressure and actions against foreign nuclear vendors, sabotaged atomic exports, and assassinated Iraqi scientists, before finally settling on the June 1981 air strike on the plant. In the Syrian case, with one caveat, Israel decided to dispense with the preliminaries and simply destroy the reactor.

The caveat consists in a plea that Israel made to the US. According to Bush’s memoir, in the spring of 2007, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made a blunt request of the US president regarding Syria’s reactor: “George, I am asking you to bomb the facility.”

After consultation with his staff, Bush responded that, absent a plutonium extraction facility, US intelligence could not confirm that the plant comprised a nuclear weapons program. “I told him [Olmert] I had decided on a diplomatic option backed by force” to stop Syria, Bush writes. An apprehensive Olmert responded, “I must be honest with you. Your strategy was very disturbing to me.”

Within months, Israel struck. One year later, it followed up by assassinating Mohammed Suleiman, the Syrian general in charge of resurrecting the nuclear enterprise.

Given its efforts to fend off an attack, Iran represents a far more difficult target for Israel than Iraq and Syria did. As a result, Israel ceded to the US and others responsibility to move the Iranian regime from its current path.

Since 2002, the US has applied a multi-pronged approach. It pressed the International Atomic Energy Agency for greater scrutiny. It got the United Nations Security Council to agree to impose increasingly onerous economic sanctions – and roped allies into even stronger sanctions. It adulterated nuclear-related exports from European vendors to perform poorly during operation. It may have inserted computer worms into Iran’s atomic infrastructure.

The result of all these efforts has been to slow, but not halt, Iran’s nuclear progress. And, even as the US and its allies attempt to restrain Iran, its regime continues to goad Israel, calling for its extinction and exporting military wares to its Lebanese and Gazan adversaries.

In May 2010, Israel responded with a new wrinkle. It leaked to the London Sunday Times that it had placed nuclear-armed submarines off Iran’s coast. In the months before and after, it continued to hold war games and practice air strikes on Iran. And it repeatedly uttered threats that “all” options are on the table. Iran remains unmoved.

Concerned that President Barack Obama will be less likely than Bush to use force to stop Iran, Israel must now contemplate its next steps should diplomacy continue to stall. One option would be to pursue a policy of “opacity plus”: a further lifting of the veil over its nuclear arsenal in order to caution Iran’s rulers about the potential consequences of their actions.

Another option would be to bring the country’s nuclear arsenal out of the basement altogether. Israel could then mimic other nuclear-armed states by flexing its capacity through announcement and transparent nuclear deployment on land and sea, thereby promoting deterrence.

But, for a country that has had little faith in deterrence when it comes to existential nuclear threats, relying on it now would mark a new, uncomfortable bet.

That leaves nuclear use as the final option. But nuclear attack carries its own heavy burden. Given Iran’s placement of strategic sites in or near population centers, the deaths of many thousands of people would forever tar Israel.

The only worse stain on Israel would be if survivors of an Iranian nuclear strike were to lament that, had their country acted proactively, “the third destruction of the Temple” – the end of the Jewish state – could have been avoided.

These sobering prospects should prompt all involved to seek a peaceful resolution. Time is growing short.

Bennett Ramberg served in the Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs in the George H.W. Bush Administration. He is the author of several books on international security.

The effective Iranian deterrent – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

To date Iran has managed to deter Israel against military action, but will that continue to hold true in 2011?

By Aluf Benn

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 12, 2011, 12:28 PM (GMT+02:00)

USS Enterprise heads for Lebanese shores

With backing from Tehran, Hizballah and its Christian ally Michel Aoun abruptly quit the Lebanese unity government Wednesday, Jan. 12, in a move that could pave the way for their seizure of power in Beirut. They struck as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s prosecutor Daniel Bellemare prepared to hand over to the pre-trial judge “within hours or days” indictments naming Hizballah officials in the case of the former premier Rafiq Hariri’s assassination in 2005.

Hizballah is committed to defying those indictments and refusing to hand over its top officials for extradition by the government.

As the Lebanese crisis raced towards it climax, President Barack Obama, Saudi King Abdullah, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri held intense consultations in Washington and New York on a united front against Iran-backed disruptions in Beirut by Hizballah and its allies.
Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said repeatedly that the STL and its rulings are “null and void” because they serve “foreign interests.”

As the US, France and Israel made military and diplomatic preparations to thwart a clash, Obama scheduled a meeting with the Lebanese Prime Minister for Wednesday night, Jan. 12, to decide how the US, France and its allies would act in a conflagration.

Over the weekend, the US president ordered US vessels to buttress the Sixth Fleet stationed in the eastern Mediterranean with the USS Enterprise carrier and its strike group with 6,000 sailors and marines aboard and 80 fighter-bombers. Already deployed there is the USS Bainbridge missile destroyer.

On Monday, Jan. 10, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on a tour of the Persian Gulf, expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon. Clinton said: “I’m deeply worried about the efforts to destabilize Lebanon. We should do everything we can to make sure those warnings are not accurate.”

American military moves in the Mediterranean are intended to signal to Tehran and Hizballah that Washington will be prepared to use force to defend the Saad Hariri government in Lebanon and if necessary deploy aerial forces and the marines to avert a Hizballah takeover in Beirut. The French fleet was also ordered to bolster its naval strength opposite Lebanon.

But Hizballah got its move in first. Its resignation from the Hariri government showed that its leaders and Iranian sponsors were not fazed by the US-French military moves off the Lebanese coast and were moving ahead with their plans.

debkafile‘s military sources add that a comment by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu Tuesday, Jan. 11, fit into the picture taking shape in Washington, New York and Paris. He remarked to foreign journalists that 60,000 missiles and rockets, all of Iranian and Syrian origin, were now pointing at Israel.

Last week, Meir Dagan, at a ceremony marking the end of his tenure as head of the Mossad, said that only 10 countries in the world have firepower on a par with that of Hizballah.
According to our sources, it is definitely on the cards for an Iranian-Hizballah move in Lebanon provoking a US-French military response to evolve into a clash between Hizballah and Israel, providing an opportunity for the destruction of Hizballah’s might missile arsenal.

IDF commander warns Tel Aviv will be target in next war – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

IDF Home Front Command officer also says that Israel’s preparedness to deal with incoming missiles has improved.

By Anshel Pfeffer

Exactly 20 years after Iraqi missiles fell for the first time in central Israel at the start of the first Gulf War in January 1991, the commander of the Dan region in the IDF Home Front Command says that “danger has returned to Tel Aviv. Under any war scenario, it will be hit by a large number of missiles, missiles that are precise and lethal. However, our preparedness to deal with such missiles has also improved.”

Apart from the 20th anniversary date, the willingness of Colonel Adam Zussman to be interviewed about threats posed to the region under his command, comprised of 16 local councils and Tel Aviv, with 1.5 million residents, underscores IDF concerns about possible war scenarios. Such scenarios point to a large number of missiles that are expected to fall on cities in the Gush Dan region, hundreds of casualties and destroyed buildings. Such scenarios encourage the municipalities to develop emergency plans.

	Emergency workers practicing for a mass casualty event in case of war at a school in Kibbutz Dafna, Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011.
	Photo by: Dror Artzi

The Home Front Command now recognizes that the time has come to clarify to the public what might be in store. “Clearly, the Dan region is the most threatened area,” Colonel Zussman says. “All districts are now in range of the enemy, but terror organizations have the ability and motivation to target the Dan region. This time, in contrast to the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead, long-range weapons are in large quantity, and they are more lethal. We know what the missiles and rockets will do, in terms of the scope of casualties and destruction to infrastructure and buildings.”

Regarding Tel Aviv, Zussman does not mince words. “We know that this city will be hit during the next round. We don’t know whether it will happen on the first day of the fighting; that is the enemy’s decision, and it has the ability.”

The anticipated dimensions of damage feature several dozen missiles with large warheads, hundreds of casualties, dozens of destroyed buildings and major infrastructure damage. The scenario, which has been relayed to Tel Aviv-Jaffa municipality, relates to a situation in which Israel engages in war with Syria and simultaneously faces Hamas and Hezbollah, and possibly also attacks from the outer rim of hostility, namely Iran. But Zussman stresses that even if the warfare is limited to just one front, in the north or south, Hamas or Hezbollah has the capability to fire dozens of missiles at Tel Aviv. “[Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah says categorically that Tel Aviv is the State of Israel’s socio-economic center, and that he is making every investment to reach it,” Zussman explains.

The Home Front Command divides local councils in Israel into two groups, those which are liable to “endure attacks,” and those which should “absorb [vacated] population” groups. All the Gush Dan councils are now listed in the first category. Colonel Zussman says that he is satisfied with preparedness steps taken by local councils under his authority. “We presented the scenario to [Tel Aviv Mayor Ron] Huldai and his aides. They are not surprised; they knew that this is the situation and that they have to take steps that go beyond the routine.”

These steps include the identification of underground facilities that can be used temporarily by civilians who live in old or unprotected houses. Large parking garage facilities are expected to serve as temporary shelters for tens of thousands of foreign workers who live in regions that lack protected structures. However, every resident of Tel Aviv is liable to need temporary underground space, in cases where a warning siren finds him or her outside the home or at work.

The Home Front Command faces a special challenge in Tel Aviv: providing security for, and protecting the continued activity of essential institutions, including the defense ministry, the IDF General Staff compound, central offices of large banks, the stock market, hospitals and more.

“The first missile will come as a boom,” says Zussman, who would effectively become military governor of the Dan region the moment a state of emergency is declared. “It will certainly surprise the apathetic citizen who is sitting and drinking coffee … but this boom will come quickly, and everything will rapidly enter a state of emergency

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report January 11, 2011, 8:33 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran exhibits handguns, one fitted with silencer, allegedly used by Mossad agents

Iran’s intelligence minister Heidar Moslehi called his second news conference in two days inTehranTuesday, Jan. 11, to pour abuse on Israel and its spy agency and accuse them of trying to retard “scientific progress in Muslim nations.” He went on to elaborate on his charge Sunday that Mossad was behind the killing of nuclear scientist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi last January with a display of handguns – one fitted with a silencer – allegedly seized from the suspects, of whom “more than 10” had been arrested.

He also exhibited communications and filming devices which he said Mossad had given its Iranian agents and a “sticky bomb” like the ones attached to the cars of two Iranian scientists attacked in Tehran last month.
Monday, Iran’s state TV broadcast a purported confession by a young man identified as Majid Jamali who said he had undergone training at a Mossad facility in Israel on how to place bombs on cars.
The Iranian minister went on to warn “regional and neighboring countries that have interactions with Israel to pay attention that any facility they provide to the Zionist regime is considered against the region and the Islamic Republic.” He said Israel-linked networks had set up bases in countries neighboring Iran. “We … created intelligence bases next to them through which we could strike heavy blows against the group,” he said.

debkafile‘s Iranian sources note that although Moslehi did not name those countries, implicit in his threat was an offer for them to join Iran in setting up a close-knit intelligence front against Israel, instead of risking Tehran’s ire by providing the Zionists with facilities. Iranian media have noted that Israel maintains military and intelligence ties with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan and Qatar, all neighbors of Iran. The minister’s threat to countries hosting Israeli facilities apparently referred to the electronic surveillance stations set up there for tracking the nuclear and military activity inside Iran as legitimate targets for one of its “heavy blows.” It was the first blunt warning ever to come from Tehran against its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, the Caspian region, the Caucasian and Central Asia.

Of late, Iran has been progressively deepening its intelligence and military ties with Turkey and Qatar.

Monday, debkafile itemized the three-front intelligence campaign Iran has just launched against Israel. (click here for the full article). It is expected to keep going with a further spate of “revelations” about alleged Mossad operations in the country and try to draw a response from Jerusalem.
So far, Israel’s Foreign Ministry and the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have declined to comment on the allegations.

Western intelligence sources told debkafile that Tehran would not have launched this offensive against Israeli intelligence unless it had enough incendiary material to cause Israel and its spy service serious strategic damage and embarrassment.

Israel reconsiders deployment of Iron Dome in South – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Israel may station two batteries in the Negev after coming under heavy criticism from Israeli public.

By Amos Harel

In light of harsh criticism from the Israeli public, Israel’s defense establishment has announced that it may reconsider its policy regarding the Iron Dome missile defense system, created by Israel to counter rockets from Gaza. A final decision regarding whether the Israel Defense Forces will station two batteries in the Negev will be made public in the near future.

This past February Haaretz reported that the IDF said it had no intention of permanently deploying the Iron Dome system to protect the southern Israel city of Sderot against rocket attacks, causing uproar throughout the country.

	Anti-missile system Iron Dome, meant to protect Israeli towns from rocket attacks.
	Photo by: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems LTD.

The IDF stated that it planned to leave the Iron Dome batteries on a Southern air force base and would only use the missile defense system in the event of intense escalation. This went against initial IDF commitments, promising to use the system to protect Sderot residents from incoming Qassams.

Last month the High Court announced that it will look into the appeal from residents of communities near the Gaza border and city council heads from the Negev who have implored the State and the IDF to uphold its promise to deploy Iron Dome for their protection.

The Iron Dome project has been delayed due to both technical as well as financial difficulties. Last month some problems were found with the operation of the Iron Dome system, however, reports have shown that these were no more than minor mishaps.

A larger issue is that of funding; although United States President Barack Obama has promised to give Israel 205 million dollars to assist with Iron Dome, the US budget is yet to be approved-as is the aid to Israel. The earliest possible approval will be in March of this year.

Iran vows to bring Israel to justice over alleged murder of nuclear scientist – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iranian foreign ministry says Tehran will follow up Israel’s ‘crimes against humanity’ in international legal bodies.

By Haaretz Service

The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman said Tuesday that Tehran intends on bringing Israel to justice over “crimes against humanity and our scientists,” Iran’s Press TV reported on Tuesday.

Iran accused Israel’s Mossad for the murder of a nuclear physicist last year, and Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that “we will definitely utilize all our means and capabilities to follow up the case in international legal bodies.”

“The issue that we will actively pursue is the condemnation of this illegal regime (Israel) and its punishment as the perpetrator of crimes against humanity and our scientists,” Mehmanparast said at his weekly press briefing on Tuesday.

Iran also condemned Western support of Israel, saying they sponsored Israel’s “terror efforts.”

Mehmanparast spoke in light of Iran’s recent claim that it had arrested a spy network linked to the Mossad, who was allegedly involved in the 2010 assassination of physics professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi.

	Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast.
	Photo by: Reuters

Earlier Tuesday, Iran’s intelligence chief revealed more details about the investigation into last year’s killing of a nuclear physicist, saying that more than 10 suspects have been arrested and all were members of networks linked to Israel’s Mossad spy agency.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Heidar Moslehi warned any nations cooperating with Israel in such plots that Iran would consider them “bases for terrorist jobs” and threats to the entire Middle East.

On Monday Iran announced its probe into the January 2010 slaying of Mohammadi had led its agents to infiltrate the Mossad and uncover other plots.

Mohammadi was killed by a bomb-rigged motorcycle parked outside his house. Possible explanations have never been clear, particularly as he had no known link to Iran’s nuclear work.

Iran intelligence chief: 10 suspects linked to Mossad.

(Impossible to know how much credence to lend this story.  Iran has lost a lot of face recently and this could just be so much disinformation. – JW)

Iranian intelligence chief Heidar Moslehi on Tuesday revealed more details about the investigation into last year’s killing of a nuclear physicist.

Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Moslehi claimed that more than 10 suspects had been arrested and all were members of networks linked to the Mossad.

Moslehi warned any nations cooperating with Israel in such plots that Iran would consider them “bases for terrorist jobs” and threats to the entire Middle East.

In a possible blow to the Mossad on Monday, Iranian intelligence services announced they had succeeded in penetrating the Israeli spy agency’s operations in that country.

According to a statement put out by the Iranian Intelligence Ministry, Iran had arrested a network of spies linked to the assassination of one of the country’s top nuclear scientists a year ago, and the spies had revealed information on additional anti-Iran Israeli plots.

Iran blames the Mossad for the assassination last January of Teheran University physics professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi, who was killed by a bomb-rigged motorcycle that exploded outside his house as he was leaving for work. Possible explanations as to why he was targeted have never been made clear, particularly as he had no known link to Iran’s nuclear work, although some reports have indicated that Mohammadi was involved in the country’s nuclear weapons program.

“After months of silent struggle, offensive, multi-layered and complicated operations and penetration into the depths of the Zionist regime’s intelligence led to the uncovering of very important and sensitive information about Mossad spies and operations,” the Intelligence Ministry statement said. “Heavy blows were inflicted on the structure of the Zionist intelligence and security services.”

Yaakov Katz contributed to this report

Thick Plot, Thin Facts | Iranian.com.

(It’s gratifying to see that my work is infuriating the right people… JW)

When President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, thinking of the primacy of a forward looking, solid and unified team to overcome the U.S. diplomatic and economic blockade, appointed the country’s vice-president and secretary of the National Atomic Energy Agency Ali Akhbar Salehi as interim foreign minister and asked hitherto Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who has held the position for five years, to step down, the yellow journalists of the military corporate media such as Willian Yong of the New York Times, the Israeli Iran hater Joseph Wouk of Worldpress.com and a turn-coat and traitor to his own people Mohammad Reza Heidari saw an opportunity to once again demonize the Iranian government.  They deviously characterized the Islamic Republic as capricious and whimsical and, furthermore, they claimed that Iran under the current administration has a high propensity toward militarism.