WarSclerotic

Analysis: Western Naval Fleets Heading to Lebanon – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

Elias Bejjani is spokesman for the Canadian Lebanese Human Rights Federation (CLHRF) and Media Chairman for the Canadian Lebanese Coordinating Council (LCCC).

Hizbullah, the armed Iranian-Syrian terrorist proxy, is resorting to all sorts of force, terrorism, intimidation, threats, bribery, division, sectarianism and instigation to install a new puppet government in Lebanon after toppling the Hariri national unity government January 13, in response to direct orders from its two Axis of Evil supporters, Syria and Iran.

In a report that was published Tuesday in the Kuwaiti daily Alseyiasi, veteran analyst and journalist Hamid Gheriafi wrote that many Western and Arabic countries have been lately issuing urgent travel warnings.

They have cautioned their citizens who are residing in Lebanon to take the highest required measures to avoid being targeted by Syria’s and Hizbullah’s armed groups and advising them not to travel deep into Lebanon’s southern and Bekaa Valley regions or to go to Beirut areas, where there are Sunni Shiite tensions.

The report stated that the whole democratic and Free World and the majority of the Arab countries are extremely concerned that Tehran’s and Damascus’s allies could take full control of the Lebanese state and all of its institutions, including both the army and internal security forces.

The United States, European countries, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and many other countries have been conducting around the clock consultations on the highest level to abort this vicious Syrian-Iranian scheme. The Syrian-Iran full control of Lebanon will impose a dire threat to all the Arab countries, Israel, and Europe.

Gheriafi learned from reliable European Intelligence sources in Brussels that at least two well-equipped Western military fleets were urgently ordered to move from the Arabian Gulf to positions close to both Syria and Lebanon in the Mediterranean Sea.

They carried strict instructions to fully monitor and watch the unfolding events in Lebanon, especially in case Hizbullah, backed by Syria and Iran, succeeds in taking over the new Lebanese government.

The intelligence sources did not unveil the identity of the Western fleets but confirmed that they comprise two nuclear aircraft carriers with 210 jet fighter planes on board, and more than 30 ships carrying about 5,800 marines armed with the latest technologies.

The same sources said that the Israeli air and navy forces have been on a high alert status since last Friday after Lebanon’s Druze Leader, MP Walid Jumblatt, decided to join Hezbollah and Syria with his parliamentary bloc. His support gave them the upper hand and a parliamentary majority that enables them to form a new pro-Syrian and -Iranian government, killing all chances for caretaker PM Sa’ad Hariri to return as a prime minister.

A new Hizbullah-controlled government will cut all Lebanon’s legal and financial relations with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and force the country to fully join the Axis of Evil terrorist front comprised of Syria, Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah. The STL is expected to indict members from Hizbullah, Iran and Syria for the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and dozens of high ranking Lebanese politicians, clergy, journalists and intellectuals.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, his deputy and other high ranking officials expressed their very serious concerns in regard to the looming possibility that Lebanon will have a pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian government fully controlled by the terrorist Hizbullah and its allies.

The U.S. administration and both Houses of Congress are looking seriously into the dreadful hazards that could affect both the peace process and stability in the Middle East, in case Hizbullah succeeds in forming and fully controlling Lebanon’s new government. The Obama administration will most probably halt all kinds of aid to Lebanon and even impose harsh sanctions.

In this same context, all the 18 countries with troops participating in the UNIFIL forces deployed in South Lebanon on the Lebanese-Israeli border are extremely concerned about their safety. These countries are definitely going to reevaluate their participation in UNIFIL, as well as their aid to Lebanon once Hezbollah’s government is in office.

In conclusion: The Free World and the Arabic countries have an obligation to help the Lebanese people by all available means, including military forces in a bid to stop Iran and Syria, through its armed terrorist proxy, Hizbullah, from taking over Lebanon and turning it into an arena for evil wars against all the democracies in the world.

The confrontation with the Axis of Evil is inevitable and now it is the right time to act before it is too late and before a new Nazi dragon starts goose stepping in to devour all the Arab countries and Europe.

Logistics: Israel Digs In For The Big One.

January 26, 2011: Israel has ordered its military to fortify critical military installations against missile and rocket attack. This would mean a lot more underground (or partially so) storage facilities. Last year the military was ordered to disperse its stocks of supplies, equipment and spare parts to a larger number of (better protected) locations. Apparently, it was later determined that putting more stuff in bunkers was also necessary. This fortification program will begin next year.All this is old news for Israeli civilians. Fourteen years ago, Israel decided to upgrade its civil defense arrangements. As part of that effort, they passed a law mandating that new houses have at least one “bomb proof” safe room, to be used as a shelter during rocket attacks. But most builders have ignored the law. It’s expensive. To add such a room to existing houses costs about $25,000 per home. But many Israelis have designated one room in the house as the “safe room”, and perhaps reinforced it a bit, and stored emergency supplies there. But the danger is growing, and for the last five years Israel has accelerated the upgrading of defenses against rocket and missile attack.

In addition to rockets fired by Hamas and Hezbollah, there is also concern that Syria would fire larger, and longer range, rockets armed with explosive or chemical warheads. Hamas has several thousand, mostly short (under 20 kilometers range) rockets stockpiled, while Hezbollah up in Lebanon is believed to have 40,000 rockets stored and ready to fire near the Israeli border. But Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria also have over a 1,500 larger rockets that can reach anywhere in Israel.

Syria has underground storage and launch facilities for its arsenal of over a thousand SCUD missiles. Armed with half ton high explosive or cluster bomb warheads, the missiles have ranges of 500-700 kilometers. Syria also has some 90 older Russian Frog-7 missiles (70 kilometer range, half ton warhead) and 210 more modern Russian SS-21 missiles (120 kilometer range, half ton warhead) operating with mobile launchers. There are also 60 mobile SCUD launchers. The Syrians have a large network of camouflaged launching sites for the mobile launchers. Iran and North Korea have helped Syria build underground SCUD manufacturing and maintenance facilities. The Syrian missiles are meant to hit Israeli airfields, missile launching sites and nuclear weapons sites, as well as population centers. Syria hopes to do enough damage with a missile strike to cripple Israeli combat capability.

Currently, the Israelis estimate that there would be as many as 3,300 Israeli casualties (including up to 200 dead) if Syria tried to use its long range missiles and explosive warheads against Israel. If the Syrians used chemical warheads, Israeli casualties could be as high as 16,000. Over 200,000 Israelis would be left homeless, and it’s believed about a 100,000 would seek to leave the country.

Analysis: Concern, but also opportunity in Lebanon.

In January 2006, after Hamas won general elections in the Palestinian Authority, Israeli intelligence officials spoke of a jealous Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah who was watching Ismail Haniyeh become prime minister as he continued moving among his different hideouts in Beirut as the head of a so-called guerrilla organization.

Following Tuesday’s announcement that Hizbullah confidant Najib Mikati would form the next Lebanese government, there is no question that Nasrallah is no longer the jealous one. Haniyeh is confined to the Gaza Strip, where he is busy trying to solidify his regime in the wake of Operation Cast Lead and continued diplomatic isolation. Nasrallah, on the other hand, got to play kingmaker in Lebanon on Tuesday.

For Israel, this is a troubling development and an example of how Iran is tightening its grip on Lebanon. It also demonstrates the continued formation of a Shi’ite crescent which begins in Iran, continues to Syria and ends in Lebanon.

A government led by Hizbullah will likely remove any prospect of a future normalization of ties with Israel and make even basic moves like the implementation of an Israeli withdrawal from the split town of Ghajar more difficult.

On the other hand, Hizbullah’s effective takeover of Lebanon also creates a window of opportunity for Israel and could actually bolster its deterrence and force Hizbullah to be more restrained.

From a military perspective, a Lebanon controlled by Hizbullah potentially changes the bank of targets Israel will have at its disposal in the event of a future war with the guerrilla group.

In the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006, Israel, for the most part, refrained from bombing Lebanese national infrastructure, as well as government and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) targets. Israel was willing to make the distinction in 2006, since it understood that Lebanon as a country was being held hostage by Hizbullah the guerrilla group.

This changed slightly after the war when Hizbullah entered the government, but on Tuesday it went a step further.

A future war with Hizbullah – either as a result of an Israeli attack on Iran, or unrelated – would be met by a different Israeli military response, one that could really set Lebanon back by several decades this time, as chief of General Staff Lt.- Gen. (res.) Dan Halutz threatened after reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were kidnapped on July 12, 2006.

Hizbullah’s position in the government will restrain the guerrilla group. Now that it is not only part of the government, but basically the official leader of Lebanon with a prime minister in Nasrallah’s pocket, Hizbullah will have to think twice before launching an attack against Israel – one that would bring devastating consequences to the Land of Cedars.

Air Force expands its UAV capabilities.

The IAF will inaugurate a new squadron of unmanned aerial vehicles in the coming months, in an effort to boost its intelligence-gathering capabilities.

The squadron will operate the Heron, made by Israel Aerospace Industries, which is capable of remaining in the air for two days without refueling. By comparison, a previous UAV used by the IAF, the Searcher Mk. II, can only remain airborne for 12 hours.

The Heron can fly at altitudes of 30,000 feet, making it a difficult target for standard anti-aircraft weapons.

It has the ability to carry a 250 kg. payload, compared to 100 kg. for the Searcher.

The Heron has a wingspan of 16.6 m. and weighs 1,200 kg., with an operation range of hundreds of kilometers – and the ability to fly in all weather conditions, during the day and night.

The new squadron will be a drone unit operated by the IAF.

Late last month, the air force launched the squadron – which operates the Heron TP, one of the largest UAV’s in the world – which is also made by Israel Aerospace Industries, and has a wingspan of 26 m.

The IAF’s other squadrons operate the Heron, as well as Elbit Systems’s Hermes 450.

In recent years, UAVs have played a dominant role in IAF operations on various fronts – primarily in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip – and account for a quarter of the IAF’s overall flight hours.

The drones are frequently used for reconnaissance and surveillance. According to foreign news reports, some of the UAVs used by the IAF also have the ability to fire air-to-surface missiles.

Israel Aerospace Industries is a world leader in the development of UAVs, and a number of NATO countries currently operate its systems in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Last week, the Singapore press reported that the Asian island country was operating IAI’s Searcher UAV in Afghanistan.

According to the report, the Singaporean troops were operating four Searcher UAV systems in Afghanistan.