WarSclerotic

Israel’s Nuclear Option in Iran by Bennett Ramberg – Project Syndicate.

Bennett Ramberg

LOS ANGELES – Revelations in former President George W. Bush’s recently published memoirs show that he declined an Israeli request to destroy Syria’s secret nuclear reactor in the spring of 2007. While the revelation may appear merely to be a historical footnote, more profoundly it raises new uncertainty about whether Israel now thinks that it can rely on the United States to apply military force to stop Iran’s nuclear program should diplomacy fail. The Syrian episode suggests that it cannot, which means that Israel may decide to go it alone once again, this time to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities.

If Israel did so, however, it would confront a conundrum. Unlike the attack on Syria’s nuclear plant, Israel’s conventional forces do not have the capacity to destroy Iran’s suspect installations. Portions of Iran’s nuclear program may be too heavily bunkered, dispersed, or concealed. This raises the question of whether Israel’s repeated refrain that “all options are on the table” implies that even a nuclear strike is possible. Israel’s nuclear history provides no clear answer, but the future may force the issue.

Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, let alone the size and scope of its arsenal. Israeli policymakers refuse to talk about the subject. Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, never discusses the program or appropriates money for it. Military censors quash public discourse about it.

Yet American and other intelligence services and strategic-research institutes around the world all agree that Israel possesses nuclear weapons. They disagree about how many, with estimates ranging broadly, from 40 to more than 400 warheads.

Israel’s reluctance to rattle its nuclear saber, even in dire circumstances, adds to the mystery. In the Yom Kippur War, as Syrian forces threatened to break the country’s defensive lines, Israeli decision-makers recoiled even from threatening to use nuclear weapons.

While Israel keeps its bomb in the basement, it has a long history of stopping its adversaries. As Iraq moved to complete the Osirak reactor by the early 1980’s, Israel applied diplomatic pressure and actions against foreign nuclear vendors, sabotaged atomic exports, and assassinated Iraqi scientists, before finally settling on the June 1981 air strike on the plant. In the Syrian case, with one caveat, Israel decided to dispense with the preliminaries and simply destroy the reactor.

The caveat consists in a plea that Israel made to the US. According to Bush’s memoir, in the spring of 2007, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made a blunt request of the US president regarding Syria’s reactor: “George, I am asking you to bomb the facility.”

After consultation with his staff, Bush responded that, absent a plutonium extraction facility, US intelligence could not confirm that the plant comprised a nuclear weapons program. “I told him [Olmert] I had decided on a diplomatic option backed by force” to stop Syria, Bush writes. An apprehensive Olmert responded, “I must be honest with you. Your strategy was very disturbing to me.”

Within months, Israel struck. One year later, it followed up by assassinating Mohammed Suleiman, the Syrian general in charge of resurrecting the nuclear enterprise.

Given its efforts to fend off an attack, Iran represents a far more difficult target for Israel than Iraq and Syria did. As a result, Israel ceded to the US and others responsibility to move the Iranian regime from its current path.

Since 2002, the US has applied a multi-pronged approach. It pressed the International Atomic Energy Agency for greater scrutiny. It got the United Nations Security Council to agree to impose increasingly onerous economic sanctions – and roped allies into even stronger sanctions. It adulterated nuclear-related exports from European vendors to perform poorly during operation. It may have inserted computer worms into Iran’s atomic infrastructure.

The result of all these efforts has been to slow, but not halt, Iran’s nuclear progress. And, even as the US and its allies attempt to restrain Iran, its regime continues to goad Israel, calling for its extinction and exporting military wares to its Lebanese and Gazan adversaries.

In May 2010, Israel responded with a new wrinkle. It leaked to the London Sunday Times that it had placed nuclear-armed submarines off Iran’s coast. In the months before and after, it continued to hold war games and practice air strikes on Iran. And it repeatedly uttered threats that “all” options are on the table. Iran remains unmoved.

Concerned that President Barack Obama will be less likely than Bush to use force to stop Iran, Israel must now contemplate its next steps should diplomacy continue to stall. One option would be to pursue a policy of “opacity plus”: a further lifting of the veil over its nuclear arsenal in order to caution Iran’s rulers about the potential consequences of their actions.

Another option would be to bring the country’s nuclear arsenal out of the basement altogether. Israel could then mimic other nuclear-armed states by flexing its capacity through announcement and transparent nuclear deployment on land and sea, thereby promoting deterrence.

But, for a country that has had little faith in deterrence when it comes to existential nuclear threats, relying on it now would mark a new, uncomfortable bet.

That leaves nuclear use as the final option. But nuclear attack carries its own heavy burden. Given Iran’s placement of strategic sites in or near population centers, the deaths of many thousands of people would forever tar Israel.

The only worse stain on Israel would be if survivors of an Iranian nuclear strike were to lament that, had their country acted proactively, “the third destruction of the Temple” – the end of the Jewish state – could have been avoided.

These sobering prospects should prompt all involved to seek a peaceful resolution. Time is growing short.

Bennett Ramberg served in the Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs in the George H.W. Bush Administration. He is the author of several books on international security.

The effective Iranian deterrent – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

To date Iran has managed to deter Israel against military action, but will that continue to hold true in 2011?

By Aluf Benn

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 12, 2011, 12:28 PM (GMT+02:00)

USS Enterprise heads for Lebanese shores

With backing from Tehran, Hizballah and its Christian ally Michel Aoun abruptly quit the Lebanese unity government Wednesday, Jan. 12, in a move that could pave the way for their seizure of power in Beirut. They struck as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s prosecutor Daniel Bellemare prepared to hand over to the pre-trial judge “within hours or days” indictments naming Hizballah officials in the case of the former premier Rafiq Hariri’s assassination in 2005.

Hizballah is committed to defying those indictments and refusing to hand over its top officials for extradition by the government.

As the Lebanese crisis raced towards it climax, President Barack Obama, Saudi King Abdullah, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri held intense consultations in Washington and New York on a united front against Iran-backed disruptions in Beirut by Hizballah and its allies.
Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said repeatedly that the STL and its rulings are “null and void” because they serve “foreign interests.”

As the US, France and Israel made military and diplomatic preparations to thwart a clash, Obama scheduled a meeting with the Lebanese Prime Minister for Wednesday night, Jan. 12, to decide how the US, France and its allies would act in a conflagration.

Over the weekend, the US president ordered US vessels to buttress the Sixth Fleet stationed in the eastern Mediterranean with the USS Enterprise carrier and its strike group with 6,000 sailors and marines aboard and 80 fighter-bombers. Already deployed there is the USS Bainbridge missile destroyer.

On Monday, Jan. 10, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on a tour of the Persian Gulf, expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon. Clinton said: “I’m deeply worried about the efforts to destabilize Lebanon. We should do everything we can to make sure those warnings are not accurate.”

American military moves in the Mediterranean are intended to signal to Tehran and Hizballah that Washington will be prepared to use force to defend the Saad Hariri government in Lebanon and if necessary deploy aerial forces and the marines to avert a Hizballah takeover in Beirut. The French fleet was also ordered to bolster its naval strength opposite Lebanon.

But Hizballah got its move in first. Its resignation from the Hariri government showed that its leaders and Iranian sponsors were not fazed by the US-French military moves off the Lebanese coast and were moving ahead with their plans.

debkafile‘s military sources add that a comment by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu Tuesday, Jan. 11, fit into the picture taking shape in Washington, New York and Paris. He remarked to foreign journalists that 60,000 missiles and rockets, all of Iranian and Syrian origin, were now pointing at Israel.

Last week, Meir Dagan, at a ceremony marking the end of his tenure as head of the Mossad, said that only 10 countries in the world have firepower on a par with that of Hizballah.
According to our sources, it is definitely on the cards for an Iranian-Hizballah move in Lebanon provoking a US-French military response to evolve into a clash between Hizballah and Israel, providing an opportunity for the destruction of Hizballah’s might missile arsenal.

IDF commander warns Tel Aviv will be target in next war – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

IDF Home Front Command officer also says that Israel’s preparedness to deal with incoming missiles has improved.

By Anshel Pfeffer

Exactly 20 years after Iraqi missiles fell for the first time in central Israel at the start of the first Gulf War in January 1991, the commander of the Dan region in the IDF Home Front Command says that “danger has returned to Tel Aviv. Under any war scenario, it will be hit by a large number of missiles, missiles that are precise and lethal. However, our preparedness to deal with such missiles has also improved.”

Apart from the 20th anniversary date, the willingness of Colonel Adam Zussman to be interviewed about threats posed to the region under his command, comprised of 16 local councils and Tel Aviv, with 1.5 million residents, underscores IDF concerns about possible war scenarios. Such scenarios point to a large number of missiles that are expected to fall on cities in the Gush Dan region, hundreds of casualties and destroyed buildings. Such scenarios encourage the municipalities to develop emergency plans.

	Emergency workers practicing for a mass casualty event in case of war at a school in Kibbutz Dafna, Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011.
	Photo by: Dror Artzi

The Home Front Command now recognizes that the time has come to clarify to the public what might be in store. “Clearly, the Dan region is the most threatened area,” Colonel Zussman says. “All districts are now in range of the enemy, but terror organizations have the ability and motivation to target the Dan region. This time, in contrast to the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead, long-range weapons are in large quantity, and they are more lethal. We know what the missiles and rockets will do, in terms of the scope of casualties and destruction to infrastructure and buildings.”

Regarding Tel Aviv, Zussman does not mince words. “We know that this city will be hit during the next round. We don’t know whether it will happen on the first day of the fighting; that is the enemy’s decision, and it has the ability.”

The anticipated dimensions of damage feature several dozen missiles with large warheads, hundreds of casualties, dozens of destroyed buildings and major infrastructure damage. The scenario, which has been relayed to Tel Aviv-Jaffa municipality, relates to a situation in which Israel engages in war with Syria and simultaneously faces Hamas and Hezbollah, and possibly also attacks from the outer rim of hostility, namely Iran. But Zussman stresses that even if the warfare is limited to just one front, in the north or south, Hamas or Hezbollah has the capability to fire dozens of missiles at Tel Aviv. “[Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah says categorically that Tel Aviv is the State of Israel’s socio-economic center, and that he is making every investment to reach it,” Zussman explains.

The Home Front Command divides local councils in Israel into two groups, those which are liable to “endure attacks,” and those which should “absorb [vacated] population” groups. All the Gush Dan councils are now listed in the first category. Colonel Zussman says that he is satisfied with preparedness steps taken by local councils under his authority. “We presented the scenario to [Tel Aviv Mayor Ron] Huldai and his aides. They are not surprised; they knew that this is the situation and that they have to take steps that go beyond the routine.”

These steps include the identification of underground facilities that can be used temporarily by civilians who live in old or unprotected houses. Large parking garage facilities are expected to serve as temporary shelters for tens of thousands of foreign workers who live in regions that lack protected structures. However, every resident of Tel Aviv is liable to need temporary underground space, in cases where a warning siren finds him or her outside the home or at work.

The Home Front Command faces a special challenge in Tel Aviv: providing security for, and protecting the continued activity of essential institutions, including the defense ministry, the IDF General Staff compound, central offices of large banks, the stock market, hospitals and more.

“The first missile will come as a boom,” says Zussman, who would effectively become military governor of the Dan region the moment a state of emergency is declared. “It will certainly surprise the apathetic citizen who is sitting and drinking coffee … but this boom will come quickly, and everything will rapidly enter a state of emergency

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report January 11, 2011, 8:33 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran exhibits handguns, one fitted with silencer, allegedly used by Mossad agents

Iran’s intelligence minister Heidar Moslehi called his second news conference in two days inTehranTuesday, Jan. 11, to pour abuse on Israel and its spy agency and accuse them of trying to retard “scientific progress in Muslim nations.” He went on to elaborate on his charge Sunday that Mossad was behind the killing of nuclear scientist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi last January with a display of handguns – one fitted with a silencer – allegedly seized from the suspects, of whom “more than 10” had been arrested.

He also exhibited communications and filming devices which he said Mossad had given its Iranian agents and a “sticky bomb” like the ones attached to the cars of two Iranian scientists attacked in Tehran last month.
Monday, Iran’s state TV broadcast a purported confession by a young man identified as Majid Jamali who said he had undergone training at a Mossad facility in Israel on how to place bombs on cars.
The Iranian minister went on to warn “regional and neighboring countries that have interactions with Israel to pay attention that any facility they provide to the Zionist regime is considered against the region and the Islamic Republic.” He said Israel-linked networks had set up bases in countries neighboring Iran. “We … created intelligence bases next to them through which we could strike heavy blows against the group,” he said.

debkafile‘s Iranian sources note that although Moslehi did not name those countries, implicit in his threat was an offer for them to join Iran in setting up a close-knit intelligence front against Israel, instead of risking Tehran’s ire by providing the Zionists with facilities. Iranian media have noted that Israel maintains military and intelligence ties with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan and Qatar, all neighbors of Iran. The minister’s threat to countries hosting Israeli facilities apparently referred to the electronic surveillance stations set up there for tracking the nuclear and military activity inside Iran as legitimate targets for one of its “heavy blows.” It was the first blunt warning ever to come from Tehran against its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, the Caspian region, the Caucasian and Central Asia.

Of late, Iran has been progressively deepening its intelligence and military ties with Turkey and Qatar.

Monday, debkafile itemized the three-front intelligence campaign Iran has just launched against Israel. (click here for the full article). It is expected to keep going with a further spate of “revelations” about alleged Mossad operations in the country and try to draw a response from Jerusalem.
So far, Israel’s Foreign Ministry and the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have declined to comment on the allegations.

Western intelligence sources told debkafile that Tehran would not have launched this offensive against Israeli intelligence unless it had enough incendiary material to cause Israel and its spy service serious strategic damage and embarrassment.