WarSclerotic

US says cyberworm aids effort against Iran.

Friday, Dec 10, 2010

The US has acknowledged that the Stuxnet computer worm helped slow Iran’s nuclear programme, and has come close to admitting the existence of a secret international drive to sabotage Tehran’s progress toward the bomb.

Asked about Tehran’s recent admission that Stuxnet has affected its enrichment plant at Natanz, which can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons grade material, Gary Samore, President Barack Obama’s top adviser on the Iranian nuclear file, welcomed the news.

“I’m glad to hear that they are having problems with their centrifuge machines,” he told a conference in Washington, referring to the centrifuges used to enrich uranium. “The US and its allies are trying to do everything that we can to ensure that we complicate matters for them.”

In a further apparent reference to attempts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear programme, Mr Samore added: “Their technical problems go beyond steps that outside countries are taking.” He highlighted Tehran’s dependence on outdated technology and a limited industrial base.

The US maintains it does not know the origin of the Stuxnet virus, which has affected companies across the world though some 60 per cent of cases have been in Iran.

“It’s hard to figure out where all these things are coming from,” William Lynn, deputy defence secretary and the Pentagon’s top official on cybersecurity, told the Financial Times this week.

There has been widespread speculation that Stuxnet was developed in Israel and recent technical analyses have suggested the worm was designed to destroy centrifuges at Natanz by spinning them so fast that they break.

Last month, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran’s president, said that “a limited number” of centrifuges had been hit by a “software” attack while the UN’s nuclear watchdog noted that the plant temporarily halted enrichment in mid-November.

Without commenting on the origin of Stuxnet, Mr Samore argued it was essential for the US to delay Iran’s programme to “buy time” for diplomacy and ramped up sanctions.

He emphasised Iran’s nuclear programme had made less progress than either the country’s missile programme or a recently revealed North Korean enrichment plant. Indeed, he argued that “one of the most important elements” in the US approach to Pyongyang was now to “ensure that North Korea does not sell or transfer nuclear technology or materials to countries in the Middle East” – precisely because the Stalinist state’s enrichment facilities appeared more advanced than Iran’s.

He added that the US and its allies were looking for more sanctions, since talks with Iranian negotiators in Geneva this week had failed to yield any progress. The next stage of the negotiations is set to take place in Istanbul in January.

“It’s important that we take additional measures,” Mr Samore said. “That’s a way of correcting any impression that the Iranians might have that just talking for the sake of talking is going to in any way get out of them out of the sanctions noose that is tightening around their throats.”

In a report on Stuxnet issued this week, the US Congressional Research Service said: “States appear to possess a motive to develop Stuxnet because, unlike other forms of malware, the worm is not designed to steal information, but rather to target and disrupt control systems and disable operations.”

It said the US, Israel, the UK, Russia, China and France were all thought to have the expertise and motivation to develop the worm, but added: “It is likely the developer did not consider the unintended consequence of the worm becoming widely available and subject to manipulation to make it less identifiable and more potent.”

By Daniel Dombey in Washington

U.S. and Allies Plan More Sanctions Against Iran – NYTimes.com.

WASHINGTON — Three days after the first nuclear talks with Iran in more than a year adjourned with no progress, President Obama’s chief nuclear adviser said on Friday that the United States and its allies planned a new round of sanctions against the country in coming weeks, part of an effort to test “how high Iran’s pain threshold is” and force the country into suspending its production of nuclear fuel.

Another session of talks with Iran is scheduled to take place next month, probably in Turkey. But at a conference on Friday held by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Mr. Obama’s coordinator for weapons of mass destruction, Gary Samore, suggested that Iran may have decided to resume talks with the with the members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany “because it believes it can manipulate the appearance of negotiations to weaken existing sanctions and avoid additional measures.”

“This ploy will not work,” Mr. Samore said. “In the wake of the Geneva talks, we and our allies are determined to maintain and even increase pressure. We need to send the message to Iran that sanctions will only increase if Iran avoids serious negotiations and will not be lifted until our concerns are fully addressed.”

Mr. Samore was not specific about the sanctions now being contemplated. He also would not comment on the effects of the Stuxnet worm, which appears to have been directed at disrupting Iran’s centrifuges.

“I’m glad to hear they are having troubles with their centrifuge machines,” he said with a smile, “and the U.S. and its allies are doing everything we can to make it more complicated.” But he said nothing about who was responsible for the worm.

U.S. Defense Secretary: Gulf Arab states back Iran nuclear sanctions – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Robert Gates says Iran’s neighbors are concerned about Tehran’s ‘aggressive behavior’ with respect to Hezbollah and Lebanon.

By Reuters

Iran’s neighbors are clearly concerned about Tehran’s “aggressive behavior” and support international sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Friday after a week of travel that included stops in two Gulf states.

“You can see the general support in the region for applying the sanctions and for doing what we can to make the sanctions effective and try to influence the Iranian government to walk away from their nuclear weapons program,” Gates told reporters on his plane home after visiting Oman, Afghanistan and the United Arab Emirates.

“There clearly is concern, not just in this region but elsewhere, about Iran’s overall aggressive behavior with respect to Hezbollah and Lebanon and other places around the world,” he said. “And I think that’s a broadly shared concern.”

Iran has moved to reassure Gulf Arab states in recent days after U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks showed great alarm in the region over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program, which the international community believes is aimed at producing atomic weapons but Iran says is for energy production.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a Gulf security conference in Bahrain last week that “our power in the region is your power.” But a senior Gulf Arab security official said concerns would remain until Iran dealt “openly” with the international community over its nuclear program.

Gates said he discussed the importance of maintaining diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran during a “very satisfactory” meeting at Mina Palace on Thursday evening with the Abu Dhabi crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan.

“We talked about our bilateral relationship, particularly our military-to-military relationship, as well as the desirability of greater multilateral cooperation in the Gulf on air and missile defense and maritime surveillance,” Gates said.

“We obviously talked about Iran and the importance of the sanctions and keeping the diplomatic and economic pressure on,” he said.

Gates said he and the crown prince, one of the UAE’s leading defense officials, also discussed the need to continue international support for Yemen and its leader in confronting a range of challenges. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is a growing threat in Yemen.

“We talked about Yemen and … the concerns we have about Yemen and President Saleh (Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh)… as he takes on the various challenges there,” Gates said.

Gates told a town hall meeting at the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan on Thursday that one of the main lessons to be learned from the conflicts the United States is now fighting is the need to address the underlying problems before they become a crisis.

“The hardest thing for us to sell to legislators is what we in the military call Phase Zero operations, getting into a place that’s got problems and addressing those problems, building the capacity of that government , both civilian and military, so it can deal with those problems so that we don’t subsequently have to send in our troops,” he said.

Forced to take command – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Netanyahu chalked up a few victories this week with a display of decisive leadership. But ultimately, this is exactly what he seeks to avoid.

By Aluf Benn

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s behavior this week exemplified the “paradox of the leader.” Going to the scene, issuing orders on live TV and displaying control as events unfold will win you popularity. But if Netanyahu and his government had reinforced the Fire and Rescue Services in advance, and had there not been a major fire, there would have been no political gain. In the army, too, medals are awarded for bravery in battle, not for preventing wars.

Netanyahu chalked up a few victories this week. He was seen as the commander-in-chief who brought to Israel the planes that fought the blaze on Mount Carmel. He employed a combination of stubbornness and cunning against the U.S. administration’s demand for a further construction freeze in the settlements, forcing U.S. President Barack Obama to back off. And he conducted advanced negotiations to end the crisis with Turkey.

	Netanyahu watching the flames from above the Carmel on Sunday.
	Photo by: Guy Assayag

The immediate results are clear: The coalition was spared a crisis over a construction freeze; and Shas, whose leader was scathed, as it were, in the fire, will now be clinging to its government seats. The Labor Party will latch on to the new peace plan, that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to present this evening, as an excuse to remain in the Netanyahu government.

The “hour of decision” has been postponed, and who can say when it will return? The prime minister proved to his voters on the right that he can “safeguard the Land of Israel” despite American pressure, enjoy mass popularity and avert a confrontation with Obama. The settlers can feel pleased. They believe the West Bank Jewish population is approaching a critical mass of hundreds of thousands, putting paid to any ideas of an Israeli withdrawal.

Judging from Netanyahu’s behavior, he believes that currently there is no partner for peace and no target for war. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is refusing to talk to him and is promoting a diplomatic effort to bypass negotiations, involving international recognition of Palestine within the borders of the territory occupied by Israel in 1967. Netanyahu’s response was to lift restrictions on the export of goods from Gaza, a move that strengthens “Hamastan.” Abbas turned to Argentina for recognition, Netanyahu turned to Ismail Haniyeh.

Netanyahu has two wild cards, should pressure to make peace intensify: renewing the negotiations with Syria and a partial withdrawal from the West Bank. The defense establishment is recommending the Syrian track as a political tool against Iran. But Netanyahu has no reason to hurry. The U.S. administration has been weakened and there is no public pressure to advance the political process.

The Mount Carmel fire and the collapse of the firefighting services showed that the home front is not prepared for a war with Iran and Hezbollah, in which thousands of missiles would strike Israeli cities. In such a situation, Netanyahu would hesitate to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The exposure of Israel’s vulnerability entails risks: The enemy might be tempted to attack before the “Elad squadron” of firefighting planes enters service (and before next spring, at which time, according to the Air Force Journal, Israel will achieve initial operational capability to use the new bunker-buster bombs acquired by the F-15I squadrons ). In the coming months, Netanyahu will be torn between the assessment that Obama is too weak to thwart an Israeli attack, particularly after the WikiLeaks revelations, and the evaluation of the enormous risks entailed in an operation that could wreak destruction and devastation on Israel’s civilian population.

All of this leaves Israel in a “no war no peace” situation, as in the days of Golda Meir. An economic boom in the shadow of a volcano. “You are always looking for big decisions,” one of Netanyahu’s advisers told me a year ago. “Why can’t we get through this term with a little freeze, a little settlement activity, a few quarrels and a little reconciliation with Obama?” So far, Netanyahu has succeeded pretty well with that approach. The events of the past few days showed again that he’s a lot better at responding to events that are forced on him than at demonstrating initiative.

Israeli envoys warned of Iranian revenge – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Defense officials urge country’s representatives abroad to take increased precautions for fear of attack aimed at avenging killing of two scientists

Itamar Eichner

Israel’s envoys abroad have received a particularly alarming warning in recent days: “You may be targeted by Iran and Hezbollah as an act of revenge following the assassination of nuclear scientists in Tehran,” said a message sent from Jerusalem.

The warning was conveyed by Israeli security officials, alongside a request to take increased precautions, to all of the country’s emissaries abroad: Ambassadors and diplomatic staff, scientists and academics, and hundreds of representatives of Zionist organizations worldwide.

The fear of revenge attacks stems from the fact that Iran accuses Israel of assassinating two of its senior nuclear scientists and attempting to kill a third one.

Two of the assassination attempts took place in broad daylight on November 29. The assassins attached an explosive device to the parked car of Prof. Majid Shahriari, one of the founders of the Iranian nuclear program, and escaped on a motorcycle. When Shahriari and his wife entered the vehicle, the device was detonated by remote control, killing the scientist and injuring his wife.

Several minutes later, another explosion rocked Tehran: A device attached to the car of Prof. Fereidoun Abbasi injured the scientist and his wife.

It was the third time Iranian nuclear scientists had been targeted in the past year. Dr. Masoud Ali-Mohammadi was assassinated in January in the exact same way.

‘Our enemies are in for a painful fate’

The Islamic Republic rushed to accuse Israel. “There is no doubt that the Zionist regime and other Western governments are involved,” said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

His spokesman focused on the outgoing Mossad chief: “Meir Dagan has never concealed his real intentions regarding Iran. He plotted against us and shared some of his criminal plans with the American CIA.”

Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi threatened this week that Tehran would not turn a blind eye to the recent incidents. “There is a limit to our nation’s patience,” he said. “Our enemies are in for a painful fate.”

These accusations join Hezbollah and Iran’s unsettled account with Israel following the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Imad Mugniyah in Damascus almost three years ago.

Israel estimates that Iran views the scientists’ assassinations as a red line which has been crossed, as these operations took place on the Islamic Republic’s sovereign territory rather than in a third country.The fear that Iran would try to act against Israeli officials have prompted the defense establishment to warn all of Israel’s representatives worldwide to take extra safety measures.

WikiLeaks exposes Obama – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Leaked documents refute US President Obama’s fundamental assumptions

Yoram Ettinger

DEBKA.

The rulers of the Islamic Revolutionary Republic of Iran make no secret of their objectives. World representatives taking part in the resumed nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva this week are invited to read a new book in Arabic out in Beirut, sponsored by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and funded by the Iranian government, which confirms for the first time in print Tehran’s prime goal of a nuclear weapon in the belief that it will hasten the coming of the Shiite messiah.
Entitled “Ahmadinejad and the Coming World Revolution,” one of the book’s first sentences is: “When Iran officially announces it has a nuclear bomb, the whole world will rejoice.”
The writer, Shahdi Faqih, a Lebanese Shiite journalist and researcher, calls Ahmadinejad the “Military Mahdi” and asserts that the Mahdi himself (the Shiite Messiah), known also as the Invisible Imam, will arrive soon because 13 out of the 15 preconditions for his coming have been fulfilled.
With his arrival, says the writer, all the worlds’ inhabitants will convert to the Shiite brand of Islam and the Shiah will dominate the world and rule mankind.
The book has been printed in hundreds of thousands of copies and secretly circulated across the Arab world.
After spending months in Tehran with the Iranian president, Faqih affirms Ahmadinejad’s profound belief that the imminent coming of the Mahdi is closely bound up with Iran’s success in arming itself with a nuclear weapon.
A nuclear bomb is part of the destiny the Mahdi assigns Iran
The West takes the president’s aggressive prediction that the world will soon come under Shiite domination as a performance designed to enhance Iran’s bargaining position against the world powers. This gambit is expected to disappear when its usefulness is exhausted. However, the book makes it clear that far from being a gambit, it is the faithful expression of the president’s consuming belief that a nuclear bomb is the key to the messiah’s coming and Iran’s destiny. Iran is called by that destiny to impose its will on the nations of the region and destroy Israel. This conviction – and no other – guides Ahmadinejad’s actions at home and in the international arena, says the author.
The Iranian president is responsible for the construction of the magnificent complex around a sumptuous hotel at the Jamkaran well near Tehran, where Shiites and all Iran believe the Invisible Imam (Emaam-e Zaman) is hiding until he emerges to save the world. Ahmadinejad is certain that only two pre-conditions still keep him from emerging from the well:
Pre-condition Number One: Iran must be in possession of a nuclear bomb. According to the book, Ahmadinejad is convinced that the Madhi must be furnished with the most destructive of weapons to carry forward his promised world revolution. Iran and its president have been entrusted with the sacred mission of laying in a store of nuclear arms, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction for the Invisible Imam’s use.
Pre-condition Number Two: The Mahdi’s assistants must come out of the Jamkaran well to find out if conditions are right for his coming. Their first task will be to ascertain that an Iranian nuclear weapon awaits him.
He is sure he is the Mahdi’s General
Depicted on the book’s cover is a photo of Ahmadinejad against the background of US soldiers fighting in Iraq and two lines of fictional text fancifully attributed to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei, founder of Iran’s Islamic revolution and contemporary spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
They are quoted as ordaining the Iranian president as the military leader charged with the mission of “liberating Al-Quds (Jerusalem)” and telling him to hurry up and produce a nuclear weapon so as to hasten the messiah’s coming. This mission may not be compromised by concessions.
The book praises the Iranian president and his noble qualities to the skies as “the Mahdi’s General” and “the shining star of world politics.” Ahmadinejad’s ascension to power is said to have struck fear in the world at large whereas it caused Muslims to celebrate the rise of a man with the courage to lead them to deliverance.
He goes on to describe how the president receives secret guidance from the Madhi in the well. Every morning, they hold a question-and-answer session at the Jamkaran fountain. Ahmadinejad throws in his requests and questions. He alone is privileged to hear the answers.
If he shares them with anyone, it is most likely with his two clerical allies, Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi and Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Bahjat, the most radical members of Iran’s religious establishment and its most ardent supporters of Tehran’s nuclear drive.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources report that as the book’s 216 pages unfold, the impression is gained that the 15 pre-conditions laid down for the messianic appearance were dreamed up by this trio.
The Mahdi sent the Americans to Iraq for their downfall
Revealed here are seven of the 13 pre-conditions that have been realized:
1. The settling of the Jews in Palestinian.
2. The emergence of an Islamic leader (Ayatollah Khomeini) from the holy city of Qom in central Iran to start the Shiite Revolution.
3. The establishment of an authentic Muslim army, namely, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.
4. The rise of a revolutionary Islamic regime on Iranian soil.
5. The strengthening of the seed of the Prophet Muhammad. This is a reference to the Shiite clerics who sport black turbans. DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s Iranian experts explain that these religious men bear the title of Sayyed and are considered direct descendants of Muhammad.
6. Warfare waged against the enemies of Islam in the Holy Land. Ahmadinejad has identified this warfare as Hizballah’s battles across the borders of Israel. The Lebanese Shiite organization’s successes are interpreted as signifying the Mahdi’s approval.
7. The US army’s invasion of Iraq and its difficulties there. The Iranian president maintains the Mahdi sent America to Iraq in order to drive it into a steep decline as a world power – a process quickened by the momentum of military defeats.
According to the book, Ahmadinejad does not believe the world’s Islamic revolution will be achieved by means of weapons bought from the infidels. They must all be manufactured by Iranian hands, including nuclear arms.

DEBKA.

Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev

US diplomats were astonished to hear a new tune from their Russian interlocutors when they met privately in advance of the world power negotiations with Iran which opened in Geneva Monday, Dec. 6.
For five years, Moscow had persisted in denying there was any proof that Iran was running a secret military nuclear program or that the ayatollahs were surreptitiously building the infrastructure for the manufacture of nuclear bombs and warheads. The Kremlin always insisted Iran lacked long-range ballistic missiles and had no plans for producing any projectiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
Even in July, when they were persuaded by the US to vote for international sanctions, it was only for the sake of a quid pro quo. Moscow extracted from Washington an undertaking not to interfere with the inauguration on Aug. 28 of the nuclear reactor Russia had installed at Bushehr in southern Iran as well as a guarantee to prevent any interference by Israel. The Obama administration was required further to obtain a direct commitment from Israel guaranteeing the reactor immunity from attack.
Moscow’s reward for this self-restraint was a pledge to hold back S-300 missile interceptors from Tehran and Damascus, notwithstanding a signed contract for its supply to guard Iran’s nuclear sites from missile or air attack.
Even when the horse-trading was at its most intense, the Russians refused to credit the mounting layers of intelligence in American and Israeli hands attesting to Iran’s burgeoning arms and missile programs.
Moscow scorns Iran’s missiles as outdated
But then, in early November, the Russians suddenly changed their tune. DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s exclusive Washington and Moscow sources report that a surprising new message came through their diplomatic channels, notably in Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov‘s off-the-record video conferences with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The Russians were now saying that they had come to the conclusion that nothing could stop a big country like Iran – with a population of 70 million and rich oil and gas resources and the high technological ability to run nuclear reactors, uranium enrichment processing and produce nuclear fuel rods – from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Once it had decided on this course, it was bound to succeed.
This surprise flip flop finally brought Moscow around to the conclusion, reached long ago by Washington, Paris, Berlin and Jerusalem, that Iran was well on the way to its goal of a nuclear weapon or warhead.
Our military sources add that, even so, Moscow still refuses to believe Iran is capable of producing a ballistic missile sophisticated enough to carry a nuclear warhead. Its experts insist that Iranian missile production has never managed to get past Scud technology, a reference to the World War II Russian surface missile of that name.
Trust us, say the Russians to the Americans: We designed the Scuds and we spent decades upgrading them before moving on to more advanced weaponry. So no one can pick up faster on the weaknesses betrayed by a military machine which is not up to mastering any missile technology beyond the outdated Scuds.
The Russian experts recently confirmed this diagnosis with the discovery that the missiles Iran used to boost its first miniature spacecraft Safir (Messenger) 1 and 2 and Kavoshgar (Explorer) 1 in 2008 and 2009, consisted of three stages, the first two of which were old Scuds.
Let’s go all the way with a sea and air blockade
Having changed its mind about Iran’s nuclear motives, the Kremlin was suddenly ready to turn the screw in earnest when it became clear that UN, US and European sanctions lacked the punch for curbing Iran’s drive for a bomb. According to our sources, the Russians offered to work with the Americans on a penalty painful and costly enough to daunt Iran from going all the way to a bomb. The Iranians must be convinced, they explained, that their potential strategic benefit from joining the world’s nuclear club was not worth having their economy go into meltdown.
At first, Russian diplomats refused to explain what they were talking about. In the third week of November, they unveiled a plan which consisted very simply and brutally of an international naval and air blockade against Iran to choke off its oil and gas exports to world markets. The plan’s success depended on three key steps:
The blockade must be watertight and impossible for Iran’s friends, including China, Venezuela, Syria and Turkey, to breach.
Washington and Moscow must cooperate in steps to avert a global energy crisis.
The two powers must guarantee a steady fuel supply to countries dependent on Iranian oil like Japan and major importers like China in case of shortages on the international market.
The Americans could hardly believe their ears when they heard this proposal. The Russians had fought tooth and nail against any proposed embargo – even a partial one – on selling Iran oil products and especially refined oil. They had also been up in arms against any damage to Iran’s energy industry, financially or otherwise. Now, all of the sudden, Moscow was proposing the ultimate punishment, more radical than any US President Barack Obama had ever contemplated.
Washington probes Moscow’s ulterior motives
After Moscow’s cat was out of the bag, the White House put a team to work on the motives underlying the Kremlin’s radical change of face. It was instructed to explore three alternative hypotheses:
One, the Kremlin had truly come to believe in Iran’s drive for a nuclear bomb and felt compelled to protect its military and energy interests by cutting down the potential threat a nuclear-armed Iran would pose to Russia and the Central Asian nations which Moscow regards as it strategic hinterland.
Two, The rise of Chinese influence and its expanded investments in Iran’s energy industry are the cause of deep concern to the Russians and they will go a long way to thwart it.
Three, Iran is only second to Russia as the world’s top holder of gas reserves (971 trillion cubic feet -Tcf compared with Russia’s 1,680 Tcf). Moscow may suspect the Obama administration of opting for diplomacy – not just to curb Iran’s nuclear aspirations but as the long way round toward hauling US-Iranian relations back to level they attained between the 1950s and mid-1970s, when American influence reigned supreme in Tehran. The Russians fear America also aims at eventually challenging Russia’s primacy as the sole natural gas supplier for Central and West Europe by supporting the projected Nabucco gas pipeline from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March in Austria and so diversifying gas suppliers and delivery routes to Europe.
Tehran is onto Russia’s new stance
Iranian intelligence proved itself on the mark in the way Tehran responded to the first round of its resumed negotiations with six world powers ((US, Russia, UK, France, China and Germany) which ended in Geneva on Tuesday, Dec. 7. It came typically in the form of an ultimatum for round two to proceed, spelled out by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: “If you come to the negotiations by cancelling all the nasty things and wrong decisions you have adopted – lift resolutions, sanctions and some other restrictions that you have created, then the talks will definitely be fruitful.”
Moscow sensed in this warning a challenge: For the negotiations to continue, the Russian blockade proposal (“other restrictions”) must be scrapped along with sanctions. The Russians got their first taste of the tough bargaining tactics Tehran routinely employs against the United States.
Before going forward, the Obama administration must determine which of the three hypotheses about the motives behind Moscow’s volte face is the correct one – genuine concern about a nuclear-armed Iran or a tactical move to preserve its oil and gas empire.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 9, 2010, 10:19 AM (GMT+02:00)

USS Truman is distanced from Iranian waters

Shortly before the Six Power talks with Iran resumed this week, US President Barack Obama ordered the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier to withdraw from Gulf waters opposite Iran and redeploy in the Aegean Sea. This action signaled Washington’s switch to diplomacy and the search for middle ground on the nuclear controversy with Iran through engagement, debkafile‘s US and military sources report.

The mighty carrier with more than 70 warplanes on its decks was accordingly instructed to exit the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet Command which covers US military operations in the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea and join the Sixth Fleet which is responsible for US naval and air activity in the Mediterranean and Black Seas.

Obama thus abandoned the military posture he adopted only six weeks ago to bring its rulers to heel by a buildup of naval strength opposite Iran’s waters. It was then that he consigned the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Persian Gulf, raising the number of aircraft carriers deployed there to three, including the French Charles de Gaulle.

But the US president decided to change tactics before the new round of nuclear negotiations between the six powers ((US, Russia, UK, France, China and Germany) and Iran took off. By the time the delegations had sat down in Geneva Monday, Dec. 6, the Truman had been relocated to the big American naval base in Souda Harbor on the island of Crete. Only one carrier remains in the Persian Gulf, the Abraham Lincoln.

The visit Defense Secretary Robert Gates paid to Oman Sunday, Dec. 5 was another conciliatory gesture. Gates speaks for the administration faction opposed to US or Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear sites. His visit broadcast a message from the White House that the military option had been set aside in favor of engagement to which high hopes of progress toward solving the nuclear controversy were now attached .

When he visited the Lincoln the next day, Gates praised its crews’ contribution to the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, but did not mention Iran.

The first day of the Geneva talks was taken up with an 80-minute harangue by Iran’s lead negotiator Saad Jalili, which omitted mention of his country’s nuclear projects, but railed instead against American and Israeli “crimes” of terrorist attacks on Iranian nuclear physicists.

The American delegate William J. Burns, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, chose not to respond to those charges, a course emulated by the European Union’s external affairs executive Catherine Ashton.

That first encounter yielded a single decision, to meet again in Istanbul. That was Washington’s third concession to Tehran. It meant that after long objections to co-opting Turkey to the dialogue, the US had caved in. The six powers will in future face Iran much strengthened by the presence of its ally, Turkey.

Iran will produce an atomic bomb when the Supreme Leaders say so – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

The near consensus among experts is that in 2009 Iran passed the technological threshold in its nuclear program.

By Yossi Melman

The meeting that concluded on Tuesday in Geneva between the big powers, Germany and Iran brought up a feeling of deja vu. If anyone still harbored any doubts, the meeting removed them – Iran’s leaders are acting as they have for years. They create a virtual reality, an appearance of negotiations, but they use the cloak of diplomacy to confuse the international community and gain time to develop their nuclear project in secret.

So the question arises: When will Iran produce its first atomic bomb?

	Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Up and running?
	Photo by: Reuters

Israel’s intelligence community has yet to determine when that will happen. U.S. State Department documents on WikiLeaks provide an interesting look at how views change on this topic every few years. According to the documents, in March 2005 Israeli officials discussed various timetables about when they believed Iran would have a full capability to enrich uranium.

Around this time, Iran, then led by “moderate” President Mohammad Khatami, agreed to suspend uranium enrichment. A document indicates that a month earlier, in February, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice he believed there was still time to pressure Iran, although the window of opportunity was closing.

In contrast, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz warned that Iran was “less than a year” from attaining an enrichment capability. And Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, the head of Military Intelligence’s research division, is quoted as saying that Iran would attain the full technological ability to enrich uranium by the start of 2007.

Handle with caution

Some Israeli officials, however, were honest enough to admit to their American colleagues that the various estimates on Iran’s nuclear efforts “should be handled with caution.” One official, Miriam Ziv (only her title is cited in the WikiLeaks document ), head of strategic affairs at the Foreign Ministry, mentioned that already back in 1993 Israel warned that the Iranians would attain nuclear weapons no later than 1998.

Another State Department document disclosed by WikiLeaks relates to a 2009 meeting between the head of Military Intelligence’s research division, then Yossi Baidatz, and a Pentagon official. Gen. Baidatz claimed that Iran would need one year to produce a nuclear bomb and another two and a half years to build up an inventory of three bombs, the document says. The author inserted a warning in the margin: It wasn’t clear if the Israelis really believed this estimate, or whether they were circulating a worst-case scenario to create a sense of urgency.

Clearly, as the country that feels particularly threatened by Iran, Israel retains an interest in persuading world leaders of the huge danger posed by an Iran with nuclear weapons. So it’s reasonable to assume that even if they did not fabricate estimates, Israeli officials have had a natural tendency to sketch frightening scenarios.

Technological threshold

In any case, it’s worth remembering that the estimates relate to two distinct and parallel processes in Iran’s nuclear program. The first involves attaining the technological ability. This is the stage the Israeli intelligence community originally defined as the point of no return; in 2005, they changed the name to “technological threshold.”

The second stage is the time between technological proficiency and the bomb’s assembly. This stage features the ability to mine and “mill” uranium to produce “yellow cake” and eventually convert and enrich it. In the second stage, which is known as weaponization, the uranium is enriched to a level of 90 percent. It it thus turned into a fissionable material ready to be assembled in an engineering process into a bomb.

Intelligence officials observing these two stages must consider whether Iran has enough experts, materials and equipment to accomplish its technological aims, and whether it has the political will to proceed. Israeli intelligence has no doubt that Iran’s leaders want to attain nuclear weapons.

The issue is more complicated regarding technical ability. Foreign reports refer to intense efforts by the Mossad, assisted by Western intelligence agencies, to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program. These efforts include the sale of defective equipment to “poison” the system by spreading computer viruses, attempts to sabotage centrifuges and the killing of key figures in the nuclear project.

Just two weeks ago, Dr. Ali Shahriari, who supposedly was an innocent nuclear scientist at Shahid Beheshti University but was actually involved in the secret weaponization of the project, was assassinated. Previously, the activities of the physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi in Iran’s secret uranium enrichment program, Project 111, were exposed. Iran refused to let officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency visit sites reportedly linked to Project 111. Iran also didn’t allow the IAEA inspectors to question Dr. Mahabadi.

The UN Security Council took note of Mahabadi’s name; it appears he is no longer connected to Iran’s nuclear efforts. These efforts that are attributed to the Mossad have indeed delayed Iran’s nuclear program, so Israeli intelligence estimates on Tehran’s nuclear project have varied.

Yet there is a near consensus among experts that Iran passed the technological threshold, i.e. mastered the first stage, in 2009; it knows how to enrich uranium and can reach the 90 percent enrichment level needed to make the fissionable material. But it faces obstacles regarding weaponization and miniaturizing the bomb as a warhead. When will it produce its first bomb? The intelligence community lacks an answer. It will happen next year, or maybe in two years. What does it depend on? Less on scientists and more on ailing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – if and when he decides to go ahead with the program.