Archive for December 2010

Deputy FM: Iran-Venezuela ties threaten U.S., entire world

December 13, 2010

Deputy FM: Iran-Venezuela ties threaten U.S., entire world – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Reports of financial and military ties between Venezuela and Iran have raised U.S. concern, who is closely monitoring Iran’s activities in Latin America.

By Haaretz Service

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Monday that Iran’s ties with Venezuela posed a threat to the entire world, and in particular the United States.

“Venezuela is Iran’s advance outpost on the Latin American continent. The two countries have joined together to create an axis of conventional and nuclear terror [that threatens] not only the Middle East, but also the continent of America, and the United States in particular,” Ayalon told a group of some two dozen journalists from Latin American countries.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon
Photo by: Hagai Ofan

The deputy foreign minister said that Iran was the main problem threatening world peace, and stressed that the coming year would be a decisive one in dealing with country’s attempt to become a nuclear power.

Ayalon also referred to Palestinian efforts to increase diplomatic warfare against Israel on international fronts, including its efforts to achieve recognition of a Palestinian state without an agreement with Israel.

Last month, sources in Latin America told Haaretz that a border incident between Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and military pressure placed on Costa Rica, a country without an army, are the first step in a plan formulated by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, with funding and assistance from Iran, to create a substitute for the strategically and economically important Panama Canal.

The plan has aroused concern in Washington, and the U.S. has begun behind the scenes efforts to foil such a move.

Sources in Latin America consider these events, and the power demonstrated by Nicaragua, as a trial balloon by the creators of the “New Canal Plan” – Venezuela, Iran and Nicaragua. Western intelligence agencies are closely following the path of heavy machinery equipment to Nicaragua as well as the activities of Iranians in the Nicaraguan capital Managua.

Earlier this year, increasingly anti-Semitic commentary in Venezuela’s state-sponsored media prompted the heads of the country’s Jewish community to request an urgent meeting with President Hugo Chavez.

The verbal and written attacks have included hints that Jews are damaging the country’s economy, and follow the style of the notorious anti-Semitic fabrication, “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.”

Meanwhile, Argentina and Uruguay announced last week that they intend to join Brazil in recognizing an independent Palestinian state, provoking sharp criticism from Israel. The announcements by the three Latin American countries came as Middle East peace talks were on a hiatus since the temporary settlement freeze ended in late September.

Clinton: Iran’s dismissal of FM shouldn’t affect its ‘good start’ in nuclear talks

December 13, 2010

Clinton: Iran’s dismissal of FM shouldn’t affect its ‘good start’ in nuclear talks – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Clinton noted that Tehran had agreed to a follow-up meeting next month in Istanbul, and signaled that the so-called “P5+1” powers would continue to press Iran to give up what they believe is a nuclear weapons program.

By Reuters

Iran has made a good start in talks with big powers about its nuclear program and progress should not be affected by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s decision to sack his foreign minister, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Monday.

Clinton said Iran’s meeting this month in Geneva with representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany marked a return to substantive dialogue.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad conferring with his Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at the UN headquarters in N.Y. on May 3, 2010.
Photo by: AP

“It wasn’t more than that, but it was a good start to a return to serious negotiations,” Clinton said during an appearance in Canada with the Canadian and Mexican foreign ministers.

Clinton noted that Tehran had agreed to a follow-up meeting next month in Istanbul, and signaled that the so-called “P5+1” powers would continue to press Iran to give up what they believe is a nuclear weapons program.

“We remain committed to pursuing every diplomatic avenue available to us and our international partners to persuade Iran to forego a nuclear weapons program,” she said.

Asked if she had any reaction to news that Ahmadinejad had sacked long-serving Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and replaced him with one of his close allies, Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, Clinton said she had no insight into what might have caused the decision.

But she expressed confidence that the personnel change would not affect how negotiations may go forward.

“Whether one person or another is foreign minister is not as important as … what the policy of the Iranian government is in dealing with the international community on this very important matter,” Clinton said.

Both Clinton and Mottaki attended a security conference in Bahrain earlier this month at which she addressed him directly from the stage and said it was time for Tehran to deal seriously with concerns about its nuclear program.

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator is Saeed Jalili, who last week in Geneva agreed to another set of talks next month but restated Iran’s refusal to discuss a halt to uranium enrichment.

Iran’s nuclear chief named foreign minister to pump up N-Bomb drive

December 13, 2010

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 13, 2010, 7:03 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s new nuclear foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi

Nuclear Energy Commission Director Ali Akhbar Salehi was appointed Iran’s new foreign minister Monday, Dec. 13 in midstream of resumed nuclear diplomacy – to make sure the Six World Powers headed by the United States understood that Tehran was determined to go full speed ahead with its nuclear weapon program without given Washington an inch on any related issue.

debkafile‘s Iranian sources expect that after Manoucher Mottaki’s sacking as foreign minister was announced Monday, Tehran’s campaign against the Obama administration will be more aggressive than ever before and it drive even harder hard to axe every American position of influence in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
By dropping Mottaki, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad strengthens his line-up of wholly dedicated pro-nuke advocates, headed by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Salehi, defense minister Ahmed Wahidi and intelligence minister Heidar Meslahi.

Only hours before Mottaki’s dismissal was announced in Tehran Monday, an Iranian military communiqué divulged that Iran’s ground forces had completed a large war game near the Iraqi border. Iran usually makes big propaganda play of its military exercises. This time it was kept secret and even the closing bulletin gave away very little. However, the two events in one day posted a message to Washington that Iranian military strength was arrayed to confront US forces in Iraq.
Ahmadinejad announced Mottaki’s dismissal with the impulsiveness which has become a typical feature of his behavior in the five years of his presidency. The day before, the foreign minister set out on an official tour of Africa to strengthen Iran’s ties on the continent and seek out purchasing opportunities for raw uranium ore. The president’s terse cable reached him shortly after he landed in Dakar, Senegal. It told him he was fired, instructed him to return home and wished him success in his future endeavors.

Salehi’s letter of appointment as new foreign minister was quite different. He was said to have earned his new honor “by virtue of his dedication to the Revolution, the breadth and wealth of his knowledge and his blessed experience.”

It has been common knowledge in Tehran, according to debkafile‘s Iranian sources, that Mottaki was foreign minister in not much more than name. Like Israel’s Avigdor Lieberman, important diplomatic assignments passed him by and were carried out by officials close to the president.

For example: The Deputy President Esfandyar Rahim was sent to Amman Saturday, Dec. 11, with an invitation for Jordan’s King Abdullah to visit Tehran.

Critics in the Majlis (parliament) often accused Mottaki of lack of enterprise in promoting Iran’s diplomatic relations and its international interests. Disclosures by the WikiLeaks secret-blowing website contributed to his undoing. US diplomatic cables exposed Arab rulers as deeply apprehensive of Iran’s nuclear plans to the point of pressing for military action against the Islamic Republic, whereas it was his job as foreign minister’ to allay their fears and quiet their unrest.
Tehran has showed its hand in a bid to cultivate the Jordanian king, the staunchest of America’s Arab allies in the Arab world.  One of Salehi’s first tasks as incoming foreign minister is to actively woo those allies, draw them away from Washington and lift Iran’s image in the Arab world. More cordial invitations to Tehran will soon be landing on the desks of other Arab rulers.

debkafile‘s Iranian sources disclose that a name to watch now is that of Mohammad Ghannadi Maraghee, head of Iran’s Institute for Scientific and Nuclear Technological Research. He takes over from Salehi as new Director of the Nuclear Energy Commission.

Time to reset Iran policy – Wash Post

December 13, 2010

Right Turn – Time to reset Iran policy.

By Jennifer Rubin

There’s a Woody Allen joke that reminds us that everything our mothers told us was good for us — milk, sun and red meat — isn’t, actually. After a week of feckless Iran diplomacy and discussion with some very smart Iran gurus, I’m thinking we need to start asking whether that isn’t true about our policy based on economic sanctions and fruitless discussion with the Iranian regime.

I would argue that there are at least five reasons to cut off the conversation. First, we bestow an aura of legitimacy on a regime already divided internally and facing pressure from certain clerics and the Green Movement. So long as we are talking, we are more inclined to pull our punches on issues like human rights atrocities when we meet, get no results and meet again. When you throw in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s scampering after the Iranian representatives, you realize that, at this point, we are doing more harm than good by engaging the despotic regime.

Second, the only acceptable outcome is a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, not another scheme, unverifiable and inconclusive, to allow Iran limited enrichment of nuclear materials. But the longer we talk, the more likely a “compromise” of this type will emerge. That happened last year, although the Iranians wouldn’t close the deal.

Third, the talks as currently constructed focus largely on nuclear issues, ground on which Iran is quite comfortable defending its position. We spend very little time discussing Iran’s support for terrorism and human rights abuses, subjects that exacerbate domestic tensions within Iran.

Fourth, there is no indication that the Iranian regime is capable of making a deal. Last October, we offered a very sweet deal to allow a portion of Iran’s nuclear material to be enriched and returned to the regime. If that deal fell prey to infighting among various factions within the Iranian government, there isn’t much hope for a better deal that can foreclose the possibility of Iran’s nuclear capability.

Fifth, with the exception of South Africa, it’s hard to come up with an instance in which economic sanctions that inflicted pain on the citizenry have forced an oppressive regime to capitulate on its geopolitical agenda. And in the case of South Africa, we had the support of two dozen other countries to render it a pariah state.

But we need to show our allies how reasonable we are and how recalcitrant the Iranians are, proponents of talks argue. But why? If sanctions are having little or no impact and engagement has become counterproductive, why do we need to impress anyone on our side?

So what should we do? I have four suggestions. First, we should give robust support to the Green Movement (financial, technological and rhetorical), which offers the only hope for positive change and the emergence of a regime that is less horrific on human rights and less aggressive on the world stage. The notion that we will “taint” the Green Movement by helping it is unsupported speculation and contrary to the movement’s stated desire for U.S. support.

Second, we should continue and enhance espionage and sabotage of the Iranian nuclear program. Every nuclear scientist who has a “car accident” and every computer virus buys us time, setting back the timeline for Iran’s nuclear capability, while exacting a price for those who cooperate with the nuclear program. Think of it as the ultimate targeted sanction.

Third, we need to make human rights a central theme in our bilateral and multilateral diplomacy regarding Iran. The spotlight on the noxious regime helps to undermine the regime’s legitimacy at home and emboldens the Green Movement. We should test the theory that the most effective disarmament strategy is a robust human rights policy, one that includes the EU and other nations exerting diplomatic pressure on the regime.

And fourth, we should begin to make the case and agree on a feasible plan for the use of force. When there is a credible threat of force — not occupation or invasion, but strikes sufficient to hobble Iran’s nuclear program, military and Revolutionary Guard — the decision-making calculus may change. What of the notion that the nation will rally around the flag if attacked? Well, that depends on the nature of the assault and, moreover, how far the regime has alienated the Iranian people by its serial killings, jailings and prison rapes. There is good reason to believe that a wide anti-government coalition views the regime as illegitimate and acting in ways contrary to its stated Islamic precepts. In these circumstances, an attack would serve as a tipping point rather than a rallying point.

The goal should be to do what we can to accelerate the regime’s collapse while we work to retard or force surrender of its nuclear program. Yes, this requires a complete rethinking of our strategy, such as it is, to use sanctions and talk to induce an ideologically driven regime to give up its calling card to international influence. We should get started as soon as possible, before the current approach does any further damage to the Green Movement and to our prospects for defanging Iran.

Iran nuclear showdown still in diplomacy stage: Barak

December 13, 2010

AFP: Iran nuclear showdown still in diplomacy stage: Barak.

WASHINGTON — The showdown over Iran’s nuclear pursuit is “still in the stage of diplomacy,” and extended sanctions against the regime could help prevent it from acquiring atomic weapons, Israel’s defense minister said in comments broadcast on Sunday.

“I think that it’s still in the stage of diplomacy,” Ehud Barak told CNN in an interview.

“I still believe that much more active sanctions can cause the regime to have a second thought” about pursuing a weapons drive, which is at the heart of the concerns by western powers over Iran’s nuclear program.

Barak’s comments came days after the first international talks in 14 months were held on the Islamic republic’s nuclear program, which concluded with an agreement to meet again in Istanbul in late January to discuss ways to resolve what the European Union described as “core concerns about the nuclear issue.”

But even as diplomatic efforts between Iran and the six international powers engaged once again, Barak reiterated a long-held Israeli principle — that the Jewish state would not sit idle if it felt a Tehran nuclear weapons drive was putting Israel under direct threat.

“As I’ve said earlier, we recommend to you (the Americans) and to the Europeans not to remove any option from the table and we mean it.”

When asked directly if Israel would authorize an attack on Iran should sanctions fail, Barak said: “I don’t think that we have to answer these questions.

“Of course, we have a right of self-defense, and it’s a basic right of individuals in any country, including this continent or in Europe, to live in safety and to live free of fear.”

Iran is currently under four sets of UN sanctions over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, the sensitive process which can be used to make nuclear fuel or, in highly extended form, the fissile core of an atom bomb.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called on the six countries — Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States — to lift international sanctions against his country if they want the talks to bear fruit.

On Friday western nations accused Iran of stepping up illegal arms trading and made calls for tougher UN sanctions, after the seizure of 13 containers of rockets, mortars and other weapons in Nigeria last month and up to seven tonnes of high explosive in Italy in September.

Italian PM Warns Israel May Nuke Iran

December 13, 2010

Italian PM Warns Israel May Nuke Iran — News from Antiwar.com.

Berlusconi Insisted Obama Couldn’t Stop Preemptive Nuking

by Jason Ditz, December 12, 2010

In a meeting with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi warned that he believed “no one including Obama” could stop Israel from launching an attack against Israel once it had made up its mind.

Berlusconi, who has publicly said previously that he absolutely believes Israel will ultimately attack Iran, was revealed in the new comments, part of a WikiLeaks cable, to be concerned that Israel was planning to use nuclear weapons in the attack.

Though it continues to officially take a position of “ambiguity,” Israel has a large nuclear weapons arsenal and is indeed the only nuclear weapons power in the Middle East. Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to attack Iran over its civilian nuclear program, claiming it constitutes an “existential” threat.

Berlusconi was said to have been briefed about a 2008 Israeli Air Force exercise in which warplanes flew a mock bombing run over Greece, apparently an attempt to simulate a flight to and attack against Iran. Others, including Australia’s intelligence community, have expressed similar concerns about the possible attack recently.

Iran conducts large military exercise near Iraq border

December 13, 2010

Iran conducts large military exercise near Iraq border.

Iranian anti-aircraft guns during an excercise

TEHERAN — Iran’s army has finished a large military exercise by ground forces near the Iraqi border, the official Iranian state news agency IRNA reported Monday. But unlike previous war games in which Iran boasted of weapons advances, the latest maneuvers were largely held under wraps.

The report by the IRNA news agency was the first public word that the maneuvers had been held, and even IRNA’s confirmation came only indirectly. The report was about the death of two military officers in a road accident as they came back from “large” exercises by ground forces.

IRNA gave no further details about the maneuvers.

Iran has been holding regular exercises by the various branches of its military and its elite Revolutionary Guard, considered the strongest fighting force in the country. Usually, Iran’s state media give them extensive coverage of military exercises to tout the country’s strength in the standoff with the United States and its allies over Iran’s disputed nuclear program. In November, air defense exercises were meant to showcase Iran’s capabilities in defending its nuclear facilities from possible attack.

Iran announced two months ago that it would hold war games in December in the southwestern provinces of Khuzestan and Ilam, both next to Iraq. But there had been no announcement that the maneuvers had begun.

IRNA said the two officers who died were returning from maneuvers “in the south,” an apparent reference to the same exercises. It identified the two as Gen. Rahman Forouzandeh , a ground force commander, and his aide, identified only by his rank and family name, Lt. Ordikhani. The report called Forouzandeh a war veteran of Iran-Iraq war in 1980s, saying funeral services will be held for the two on Tuesday in northwestern city of Tabriz where their division is stationed.

It was not clear why the maneuvers were held in secret.

Iran has been working for years to step up the capabilities of its armed forces, at a time when it is locked in a confrontation with the West over its nuclear ambitions. The United States and its allies say Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, an accusation Iran denies, saying its program is intended only for peaceful purposes.

Both the US and Israel have not ruled out military option against Iran’s controversial nuclear program. Iran also sees the presence of the US forces on its doorsteps in Iraq and Afghanistan as a threat. It regularly asks for evacuation of the US forces from the region.

Iran bent on punishing CIA, MI6, Mossad accused of attacking its scientists

December 12, 2010

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Mossad

Two nuclear scientists targeted in Tehran

US, British and Israeli secret services are getting set for Iran to retaliate for the attacks of which they are accused on its top nuclear physicists. debkafile‘s Iranian sources report that the last straw for Tehran were the attacks of Nov. 29, which killed Dr. Majid Shariari, head of the national offensive against cyber attack by Stuxnet, and injured Prof. Fereydoun Abbasi, director of centrifuge operation at Nananz, in the heart of the Iranian capital.

Iran also has an unsettled score for the murder eleven months ago of Prof. Massoud Ali Mohamadi, by the remote-control detonation of a booby-trapped motorbike parked outside his home.

In the last ten days, the Iranians have mounted a propaganda campaign of rising intensity accusing the CIA, MI6 and Mossad of combining forces to liquidate its senior nuclear scientists inside the country during 2010. A Western intelligence source commented Sunday, Dec.12 that Tehran would not have waged this campaign so publicly unless it was planning imminent retribution. He reported: “All three Western agencies have taken special measures to safeguard their scientists and senior diplomats across the world against assassins.”

The Iranians are fingering the US, Israel and the UK, in unfolding blasts of vilification:

The Six Power nuclear talks with Iran opened in Geneva on Dec. 12 with an 80-minute tirade by Iran’s representative Saad Jalili, Iran’s National Security Adviser and head of its delegation. He declared, “Iran has so far lost 13,000 citizens in terrorist attacks… that (are) supported by the West. The same trend is repeating again.” Turning to European Union executive Catherine Ashton, he said, “The recent assassination of the two nuclear scientists was a different case compared with the previous cases.”

To explain why they were different, he claimed that the MI6 director John Sawers and Israel had confessed they were behind those attacks. Jalili went on to ask: “Why has the world kept mum about the terrorist action and the straightforward confession of a number of countries about their involvement in this act”?

debkafile‘s intelligence source pointed out: No regime, and certainly not Iran, could think of openly charging that 13,000 of its citizens were murdered – and then let the culprits go unpunished.” By naming the head of the British secret service and Israel as the culprits, Tehran is telling London and Jerusalem they have crossed red lines and will have to face the consequences.
A day earlier, Alil Salehi, Director of Iran’s Nuclear Commission and Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi, both spoke sharply about the involvement of foreign agencies in the attacks on Iranian scientists and their modes of operation, such as “sticky bombs.”

Finally on Saturday, Dec. 11, Interior Minister Mostafa Najjar claimed that,”Arrested agents confessed that they received equipment and training from the Mossad, the CIA, and MI6.” He promised special measures to provide protection for the elite and scientists.

debkafile‘s intelligence sources: This is the first time Tehran has claimed the existence of a joint US, Israeli British clandestine mechanism collecting intelligence for assassinations in Tehran. It indicates that the country is wide open to such activities and its security services helpless to combat them.

Stuxnet Worm Still Out of Control at Iran’s Nuclear Sites, Experts Say

December 11, 2010

FoxNews.com – Stuxnet Worm Still Out of Control at Iran’s Nuclear Sites, Experts Say.

Iran’s nuclear program is still in chaos despite its leaders’ adamant claim that they have contained the computer worm that attacked their facilities, cybersecurity experts in the United States and Europe say.

The American and European experts say their security websites, which deal with the computer worm known as Stuxnet, continue to be swamped with traffic from Tehran and other places in the Islamic Republic, an indication that the worm continues to infect the computers at Iran’s two nuclear sites.

The Stuxnet worm, named after initials found in its code, is the most sophisticated cyberweapon ever created. Examination of the worm shows it was a cybermissile designed to penetrate advanced security systems. It was equipped with a warhead that targeted and took over the controls of the centrifuge systems at Iran’s uranium processing center in Natanz, and it had a second warhead that targeted the massive turbine at the nuclear reactor in Bashehr.

Stuxnet was designed to take over the control systems and evade detection, and it apparently was very successful. Last week President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, after months of denials, admitted that the worm had penetrated Iran’s nuclear sites, but he said it was detected and controlled.

The second part of that claim, experts say, doesn’t ring true.

Eric Byres, a computer expert who has studied the worm, said his site was hit with a surge in traffic from Iran, meaning that efforts to get the two nuclear plants to function normally have failed. The web traffic, he says, shows Iran still hasn’t come to grips with the complexity of the malware that appears to be still infecting the systems at both Bashehr and Natanz.

“The effort has been stunning,” Byres said. “Two years ago American users on my site outnumbered Iranians by 100 to 1. Today we are close to a majority of Iranian users.”

He said that while there may be some individual computer owners from Iran looking for information about the virus, it was unlikely that they were responsible for the vast majority of the inquiries because the worm targeted only the two nuclear sites and did no damage to the thousands of other computers it infiltrated.

At one of the larger American web companies offering advice on how to eliminate the worm, traffic from Iran has swamped that of its largest user: the United States.

“Our traffic from Iran has really spiked,” said a corporate officer who asked that neither he nor his company be named. “Iran now represents 14.9 percent of total traffic, surpassing the United States with a total of 12.1 percent. Given the different population sizes, that is a significant number.”

Perhaps more significantly, traffic from Tehran to the company’s site is now double that of New York City.

Ron Southworth, who runs the SCADA (the Supervisory Control and Data Access control system that the worm specifically targeted) list server, said that until two years ago he had clearly identified users from Iran, “but they all unsubscribed at about the same time.” Since the announcement of the Stuxnet malware, he said, he has seen a jump in users, but few openly from Iran. He suspects there is a cat-and-mouse game going on that involves hiding the e-mail addresses, but he said it was clear his site was being searched by a number of users who have gone to a great deal of effort to hide their country of origin.

Byres said there are a growing number of impostors signing on to Stuxnet security sites.

“I had one guy sign up who I knew and called him. He said it wasn’t his account. In another case a guy saying he was Israeli tried to sign up. He wasn’t.”

The implication, he says, is that such a massive effort is a sign of a coordinated effort.

Ralph Langner, the German expert who was among the first to study and raise alarms about Stuxnet, said he was not surprised by the development.

“The Iranians don’t have the depth of knowledge to handle the worm or understand its complexity,” he said, raising the possibility that they may never succeed in eliminating it.

“Here is their problem. They should throw out every personal computer involved with the nuclear program and start over, but they can’t do that. Moreover, they are completely dependent on outside companies for the construction and maintenance of their nuclear facilities. They should throw out their computers as well. But they can’t,“ he explained. “They will just continually re-infect themselves.”

“With the best of expertise and equipment it would take another year for the plants to function normally again because it is so hard to get the worm out. It even hides in the back-up systems. But they can’t do it,” he said.

And Iran’s anti-worm effort may have had another setback. In Tehran, men on motorcycles attacked two leading nuclear scientists on their way to work. Using magnetic bombs, the motorcyclists pulled alongside their cars and attached the devices.

One scientist was wounded and the other killed. Confirmed reports say that the murdered scientist was in charge of dealing with the Stuxnet virus at the nuclear plants.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/12/09/despite-iranian-claims-stuxnet-worm-causing-nuclear-havoc/#ixzz17o22VDy0

Iran, Israel and the Arab Contradiction – WSJ.com

December 11, 2010

Ronen Bergman: Iran, Israel and the Arab Contradiction – WSJ.com.

The WikiLeaks cables reveal that Egypt and Saudi Arabia can’t decide if they fear a Shiite bomb more than they hate the Jewish state.

Tel Aviv, Israel

Speaking recently to the heads of his country’s major media outlets, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to contain his glee at the revelations from the latest WikiLeaks documents (a reaction that elicited a private protest from the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv).

The main reason for Mr. Netanyahu’s satisfaction was that the highly classified State Department documents present a picture of an Arab world that despises Hamas, believes that Hezbollah is a danger to Lebanon, and fears Iran. Arab leaders take the last matter so seriously that they even appear to be doing their best to persuade the United States to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.

Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak, for example, “hates Hamas, and considers them the same as Egypt’s own Muslim Brotherhood, which he sees as his own most dangerous political threat,” states one February 2009 memorandum to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Another memo, dated July 2008, reports that Mr. Mubarak informed Sen. John Kerry that the Iranians “are big, fat liars and justify their lies because they believe it is for a higher purpose.”

According to this report, Mr. Mubarak views Iran as the primary long-term challenge facing Egypt. Omar Suleiman, Mr. Mubarak’s intelligence chief and right-hand man, told Gen. David Petraeus in July 2009 that Iran is running agents inside Egypt in an effort to subvert the Egyptian regime in collusion with members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Associated Press

The latest WikiLeaks documents show that Arab Leaders share Mr. Netanyahu’s concern over Iran.

The tenor of these confidential statements echoes the concerns that Israeli leaders have long raised about Iran. So Mr. Netanyahu and other Israelis are happy to point to the documents as proof that Israel’s existential worries are shared by many of its neighbors. And with Iran perceived as a clear danger both to Israel and to numerous Arab governments, it might be expected that the Arabs and Israel would join forces to confront their common enemy.

A closer look at the documents, however, presents a political reality that is far more complex. WikiLeaks reveals that the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.

Transcripts of meetings between Gulf Arab leaders and U.S. officials show that while Arab hatred and fear of Iran is considerable, hostility toward Israel is just as great. In addition, because the Palestinian problem has not been solved, open Arab-Israeli cooperation is a nonstarter. The documents do confirm the existence of covert intelligence contacts between Israel and certain Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but the ties are tenuous and cooperation is strictly ad hoc.

For such ties to have any political impact, they would have to be open—and this is simply not about to happen. Mr. Mubarak may despise Hamas, but he points out to his American interlocutors that he cannot act against Hamas in Gaza for fear of appearing to collaborate with Israel.

Both the Egyptians and the Jordanians state that they fear Iran and would like to see economic sanctions against it until its nuclear project is scrapped. But in the same breath officials from both countries declare that no Arab state could openly join in such sanctions, for fear of being seen as betraying an Islamic nation. Needless to say, no one is willing to come out publicly in support of military action against Iran even by the United States, let alone Israel.

What should concern Israel even more, however, are the contours of American foreign policy that emerge from WikiLeaks. Israeli political leaders act as if they believe that there is a high degree of confluence between Israeli and American strategic goals in the Middle East. Anyone who reads the WikiLeaks documents discovers otherwise.

The United States faces serious difficulties in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Gulf. Israel has very little to offer the U.S. in resolving these problems. By contrast, some of Israel’s adversaries do, notably Saudi Arabia. Not surprisingly, the cables of American representatives in the Arab world reveal a list of priorities in which Israel does not figure highly, if at all.

The bottom line is this: Having a common foe—or even more than one—is not enough to turn long-term enemies into friends. History teaches us that it is impossible to run an effective campaign against rogue states without a wall-to-wall coalition of responsible partners who are aware of their role in preserving the safety of the family of nations. Unless the concerned states of the Middle East drastically change the way they collaborate (with the U.S. acting as mediator), the campaign to stop Iran from getting the bomb will be lost.

Mr. Bergman is a senior military and intelligence analyst for Yedioth Ahronoth, an Israeli daily. He is currently working on a book about the Mossad and the art of assassination.