Archive for November 2010

FoxNews.com – Mystery Surrounds Cyber Missile That Crippled Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Ambitions

November 27, 2010

FoxNews.com – Mystery Surrounds Cyber Missile That Crippled Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Ambitions.

By Ed Barnes

Published November 26, 2010

| FoxNews.com

In the 20th century, this would have been a job for James Bond.

The mission: Infiltrate the highly advanced, securely guarded enemy headquarters where scientists in the clutches of an evil master are secretly building a weapon that can destroy the world. Then render that weapon harmless and escape undetected.

But in the 21st century, Bond doesn’t get the call. Instead, the job is handled by a suave and very sophisticated secret computer worm, a jumble of code called Stuxnet, which in the last year has not only crippled Iran’s nuclear program but has caused a major rethinking of computer security around the globe.

Intelligence agencies, computer security companies and the nuclear industry have been trying to analyze the worm since it was discovered in June by a Belarus-based company that was doing business in Iran. And what they’ve all found, says Sean McGurk, the Homeland Security Department’s acting director of national cyber security and communications integration, is a “game changer.”

The construction of the worm was so advanced, it was “like the arrival of an F-35 into a World War I battlefield,” says Ralph Langner, the computer expert who was the first to sound the alarm about Stuxnet. Others have called it the first “weaponized” computer virus.

Simply put, Stuxnet is an incredibly advanced, undetectable computer worm that took years to construct and was designed to jump from computer to computer until it found the specific, protected control system that it aimed to destroy: Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.

The target was seemingly impenetrable; for security reasons, it lay several stories underground and was not connected to the World Wide Web. And that meant Stuxnet had to act as sort of a computer cruise missile: As it made its passage through a set of unconnected computers, it had to grow and adapt to security measures and other changes until it reached one that could bring it into the nuclear facility.

When it ultimately found its target, it would have to secretly manipulate it until it was so compromised it ceased normal functions.

And finally, after the job was done, the worm would have to destroy itself without leaving a trace.

That is what we are learning happened at Iran’s nuclear facilities — both at Natanz, which houses the centrifuge arrays used for processing uranium into nuclear fuel, and, to a lesser extent, at Bushehr, Iran’s nuclear power plant.

At Natanz, for almost 17 months, Stuxnet quietly worked its way into the system and targeted a specific component — the frequency converters made by the German equipment manufacturer Siemans that regulated the speed of the spinning centrifuges used to create nuclear fuel. The worm then took control of the speed at which the centrifuges spun, making them turn so fast in a quick burst that they would be damaged but not destroyed. And at the same time, the worm masked that change in speed from being discovered at the centrifuges’ control panel.

At Bushehr, meanwhile, a second secret set of codes, which Langner called “digital warheads,” targeted the Russian-built power plant’s massive steam turbine.

Here’s how it worked, according to experts who have examined the worm:

–The nuclear facility in Iran runs an “air gap” security system, meaning it has no connections to the Web, making it secure from outside penetration. Stuxnet was designed and sent into the area around Iran’s Natanz nuclear power plant — just how may never be known — to infect a number of computers on the assumption that someone working in the plant would take work home on a flash drive, acquire the worm and then bring it back to the plant.

–Once the worm was inside the plant, the next step was to get the computer system there to trust it and allow it into the system. That was accomplished because the worm contained a “digital certificate” stolen from JMicron, a large company in an industrial park in Taiwan. (When the worm was later discovered it quickly replaced the original digital certificate with another certificate, also stolen from another company, Realtek, a few doors down in the same industrial park in Taiwan.)

–Once allowed entry, the worm contained four “Zero Day” elements in its first target, the Windows 7 operating system that controlled the overall operation of the plant. Zero Day elements are rare and extremely valuable vulnerabilities in a computer system that can be exploited only once. Two of the vulnerabilities were known, but the other two had never been discovered. Experts say no hacker would waste Zero Days in that manner.

–After penetrating the Windows 7 operating system, the code then targeted the “frequency converters” that ran the centrifuges. To do that it used specifications from the manufacturers of the converters. One was Vacon, a Finnish Company, and the other Fararo Paya, an Iranian company. What surprises experts at this step is that the Iranian company was so secret that not even the IAEA knew about it.

–The worm also knew that the complex control system that ran the centrifuges was built by Siemans, the German manufacturer, and — remarkably — how that system worked as well and how to mask its activities from it.

–Masking itself from the plant’s security and other systems, the worm then ordered the centrifuges to rotate extremely fast, and then to slow down precipitously. This damaged the converter, the centrifuges and the bearings, and it corrupted the uranium in the tubes. It also left Iranian nuclear engineers wondering what was wrong, as computer checks showed no malfunctions in the operating system.

Estimates are that this went on for more than a year, leaving the Iranian program in chaos. And as it did, the worm grew and adapted throughout the system. As new worms entered the system, they would meet and adapt and become increasingly sophisticated.

During this time the worms reported back to two servers that had to be run by intelligence agencies, one in Denmark and one in Malaysia. The servers monitored the worms and were shut down once the worm had infiltrated Natanz. Efforts to find those servers since then have yielded no results.

This went on until June of last year, when a Belarusan company working on the Iranian power plant in Beshehr discovered it in one of its machines. It quickly put out a notice on a Web network monitored by computer security experts around the world. Ordinarily these experts would immediately begin tracing the worm and dissecting it, looking for clues about its origin and other details.

But that didn’t happen, because within minutes all the alert sites came under attack and were inoperative for 24 hours.

“I had to use e-mail to send notices but I couldn’t reach everyone. Whoever made the worm had a full day to eliminate all traces of the worm that might lead us them,” Eric Byers, a computer security expert who has examined the Stuxnet. “No hacker could have done that.”

Experts, including inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, say that, despite Iran’s claims to the contrary, the worm was successful in its goal: causing confusion among Iran’s nuclear engineers and disabling their nuclear program.

Because of the secrecy surrounding the Iranian program, no one can be certain of the full extent of the damage. But sources inside Iran and elsewhere say that the Iranian centrifuge program has been operating far below its capacity and that the uranium enrichment program had “stagnated” during the time the worm penetrated the underground facility. Only 4,000 of the 9,000 centrifuges Iran was known to have were put into use. Some suspect that is because of the critical need to replace ones that were damaged.

And the limited number of those in use dwindled to an estimated 3,700 as problems engulfed their operation. IAEA inspectors say the sabotage better explains the slowness of the program, which they had earlier attributed to poor equipment manufacturing and management problems. As Iranians struggled with the setbacks, they began searching for signs of sabotage. From inside Iran there have been unconfirmed reports that the head of the plant was fired shortly after the worm wended its way into the system and began creating technical problems, and that some scientists who were suspected of espionage disappeared or were executed. And counter intelligence agents began monitoring all communications between scientists at the site, creating a climate of fear and paranoia.

Iran has adamantly stated that its nuclear program has not been hit by the bug. But in doing so it has backhandedly confirmed that its nuclear facilities were compromised. When Hamid Alipour, head of the nation’s Information Technology Company, announced in September that 30,000 Iranian computers had been hit by the worm but the nuclear facilities were safe, he added that among those hit were the personal computers of the scientists at the nuclear facilities. Experts say that Natanz and Bushehr could not have escaped the worm if it was in their engineers’ computers.

“We brought it into our lab to study it and even with precautions it spread everywhere at incredible speed,” Byres said.

“The worm was designed not to destroy the plants but to make them ineffective. By changing the rotation speeds, the bearings quickly wear out and the equipment has to be replaced and repaired. The speed changes also impact the quality of the uranium processed in the centrifuges creating technical problems that make the plant ineffective,” he explained.

In other words the worm was designed to allow the Iranian program to continue but never succeed, and never to know why.

One additional impact that can be attributed to the worm, according to David Albright of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is that “the lives of the scientists working in the facility have become a living hell because of counter-intelligence agents brought into the plant” to battle the breach. Ironically, even after its discovery, the worm has succeeded in slowing down Iran’s reputed effort to build an atomic weapon. And Langer says that the efforts by the Iranians to cleanse Stuxnet from their system “will probably take another year to complete,” and during that time the plant will not be able to function anywhere normally.

But as the extent of the worm’s capabilities is being understood, its genius and complexity has created another perplexing question: Who did it?

Speculation on the worm’s origin initially focused on hackers or even companies trying to disrupt competitors. But as engineers tore apart the virus they learned not only the depth of the code, its complex targeting mechanism, (despite infecting more than 100,000 computers it has only done damage at Natanz,) the enormous amount of work that went into it—Microsoft estimated that it consumed 10,000 man days of labor– and about what the worm knew, the clues narrowed the number of players that have the capabilities to create it to a handful.

“This is what nation-states build, if their only other option would be to go to war,” Joseph Wouk, an Israeli security expert wrote.

Byers is more certain. “It is a military weapon,” he said.

And much of what the worm “knew” could only have come from a consortium of Western intelligence agencies, experts who have examined the code now believe.

Originally, all eyes turned toward Israel’s intelligence agencies. Engineers examining the worm found “clues” that hinted at Israel’s involvement. In one case they found the word “Myrtus” embedded in the code and argued that it was a reference to Esther, the biblical figure who saved the ancient Jewish state from the Persians. But computer experts say “Myrtus” is more likely a common reference to “My RTUS,” or remote terminal units.

Langer argues that no single Western intelligence agency had the skills to pull this off alone. The most likely answer, he says, is that a consortium of intelligence agencies worked together to build the cyber bomb. And he says the most likely confederates are the United States, because it has the technical skills to make the virus, Germany, because reverse-engineering Sieman’s product would have taken years without it, and Russia, because of its familiarity with both the Iranian nuclear plant and Sieman’s systems.

There is one clue that was left in the code that may tell us all we need to know.

Embedded in different section of the code is another common computer language reference, but this one is misspelled. Instead of saying “DEADFOOT,” a term stolen from pilots meaning a failed engine, this one reads “DEADFOO7.”

Yes, OO7 has returned — as a computer worm.

Stuxnet. Shaken, not stirred.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/11/26/secret-agent-crippled-irans-nuclear-ambitions/#ixzz16Ty2Za4x

U.S. military: Engagement on Iran must be realistic

November 27, 2010

U.S. military: Engagement on Iran must be realistic – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

U.S. Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Mullen prefers dialogue with Iran, believing that a military strike would only delay, not halt, its nuclear plans.

By Reuters

The United States needs to be realistic about its efforts to engage Iran, whose leaders are lying about Tehran’s nuclear program and are on a path to building nuclear weapons, the top U.S. military officer said.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in comments released on Friday that the U.S. military has been thinking about military options on Iran “for a significant period of time” but added that diplomacy remained the focus of U.S. efforts.

mullen - AP - November 11 2010 U.S. Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen.
Photo by: AP

“I still think it’s important we focus on the dialogue, we focus on the engagement, but also do it in a realistic way that looks at whether Iran is actually going to tell the truth, actually engage and actually do anything,” Mullen said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria due to air on Sunday.

Iran has agreed to meet with a representative of the six big powers over its uranium enrichment drive, but diplomats and analysts see little chance of a breakthrough in the long-running dispute.

Still, U.S. officials, including Mullen, have warned that a military strike will only delay, not halt, Iran’s nuclear program and say convincing Tehran to abandon its nuclear program is the only viable long-term solution.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates went further last week, warning a strike would also unite the divided country and saying sanctions were biting harder than expected.

The West believes that Iran aims to use its uranium enrichment program to build atomic weapons, which Iran denies. Both Israel and the United States have said all options remain on the table to deal with its nuclear ambitions, a position Mullen reaffirmed to CNN.

Asked whether he believed Tehran’s vows that its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes, Mullen said: “I don’t believe it for a second.”

“In fact, the information and intelligence that I’ve seen speak very specifically to the contrary,” he said.

“Iran is still very much on a path to be able to develop nuclear weapons, including weaponizing them, putting them on a missile and being able to use them.”

IDF stronger than ever

November 25, 2010

IDF stronger than ever – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: New developments grant Israel unprecedented military advantage over enemies
Guy Bechor

Published: 11.25.10, 11:29
Balance of Power
Photo: AFP

Alexander the Great, the man who conquered the ancient world, said that those who develop new combat methods or who possess new arms will be triumphant. Indeed, at this time Israel is creating strategic military advantage that is unprecedented in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

A series of innovations at sea, in the air and on the ground that the enemy does not possess – and will not possess – is completely changing the balance of power in the Middle East. With these innovations, the IDF is turning into an unquestionably powerful and deterring army. This year and next year, we’ll be receiving two more German-made Dolphin submarines, which together with the Israeli technological developments installed in them are no doubt among the world’s most advanced subs. This will bring the number of advanced submarines possessed by the Navy to five; according to foreign reports, these subs can fire ballistic (and potentially nuclear) missiles. According to foreign reports, this is the most effective nuclear deterrent power we have vis-à-vis Iran. Only five other states possess ballistic submarines with nuclear potential: The United States, Russia, China, France, and Britain. Upon the arrival of the two new subs in Israel, we’ll be the world’s third-strongest power on this front, ahead of China, France, and Britain. The submarines are mobile and elusive, they cannot be eliminated easily, and they can get very close to their target. For those reasons, France decided to completely annul its ground-based nuclear missile arsenal and make do with nuclear power in the air and at sea. The territorial element, which was always problematic in Israel, is resolved through the subs. Germany took part in funding all the Dolphin submarines thus far: It bore all the production costs of the first and second subs, half of the third’s, and one-third of the fourth and fifth ones, according to German media reports.

Israel’s tank revolution

Meanwhile, President Obama promised Israel another 20 stealth F-35 aircraft in connection with the freeze. In any case, Israel will receive the first 20 such planes, paid for with US military aid funds. The advantage of these aircraft, which cost $2.7 billion, is that they cannot be detected by enemy radar and can land and take off vertically. The planes will only arrive in four years, yet at that time the Air Force would be able to fly through the Middle East undetected.

According to reports this month, the IDF is also starting to receive the new anti-missile defense system for its advanced tanks. For the time being, the advanced Merkava 4 tanks had been reinforced with the system, and the intention is to gradually equip all IDF tanks with it. This innovative system, which is made by Israel’s armament authority Rafael and was developed in Israel, is the only one of its kind in the world. Its quality is attested to by the fact that the US wants to purchase it for its troops in Afghanistan.

So why is it a strategic revolution and not just another weapons system? Because it may eliminate the superiority of states like Syria and groups like Hezbollah in respect to anti-tank missiles. Hezbollah premised its entire combat doctrine following the Second Lebanon War on thousands of anti-tank missiles. It did not bother acquiring any tanks because of this missile tactic. Yet should these missiles be neutralized, Hezbollah shall remain vulnerable in the face of the advancing Israeli armored corps. The same is true for Syria and its outdated tanks.And so, the strategic balance in the region is completely changing, and the enemy clearly understands the implications of a new regional war.

 

Brits declare war on Stuxnet. Americans say: Use it on North Korea

November 25, 2010

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report November 25, 2010, 1:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

Stuxnet is back – only in Iran

The Stuxnet virus which has crippled Iran’s nuclear program has suddenly become the object of a British MI6 Secret Service campaign to convince the British and American public that it is the enemy of the West and sold on the black market to terrorists, debkafile‘s intelligence sources report. Thursday morning, Nov. 25, Sky TV news led with a story claiming Stuxnet could attack any physical target dependent on computers. An unnamed Information Technology expert was quoted as saying enigmatically: “We have hard evidence that the virus is in the hands of bad guys – we can’t say any more than that but these people are highly motivated and highly skilled with a lot of money behind them.”

No one in the broadcast identified the “bad guys,” disclosed where they operated or when they sold the virus to terrorists. Neither were their targets specified, even by a row of  computer and cyber-terrorism experts who appeared later on British television, all emphasizing how dangerous the virus was.
Our intelligence sources note that none of the British reporters and experts found it necessary to mention that wherever Stuxnet was discovered outside Iran, such as India, China and Indonesia, it was dormant. Computer experts in those countries recommended leaving it in place as it  was harmless for computer programs and did not interfere with their operations. The fact is that the only place Stuxnet is alive and harmful is Iran – a fact ignored in the British reports.
Indeed, for the first time in the six months since Stuxnet partially disabled Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr, Iran has found its first Western sympathizer, one who is willing to help defeat the malignant virus.

debkafile‘s sources note that the British campaign against Stuxnet was launched two days after Yukiya Amano, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, reported that Iran had briefly shut down its uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, apparently because of a Stuxnet assault on thousands of centrifuges.  According to our Iranian sources, the plant had to be closed for six days, from November 16-22.
Our sources also reported that the virus raided Iranian military computer systems, forcing the cancellation of parts of its large-scale air defense drill in the second week of November. Some of the systems used in the exercise started emitting wildly inaccurate data.

The Hate Stuxnet campaign London launched Thursday carried three messages to Tehran:

1.  We were not complicit in the malworm’s invasion of your systems.

2.  We share your view that Stuxnet is very dangerous and must be fought and are prepared to cooperate in a joint program to destroy it.

3.  Britain will not line up behind the United States’ position in the nuclear talks to be resumed on Dec. 5 between Iran and the Six Powers (the five Permanent UN Security Council members + Germany). It will take a different position.
In the United States, meanwhile, debkafile‘s Washington sources report that Stuxnet’s reappearance against Iran’s nuclear program is hailed.  A number of American IT experts and journals specializing in cyber war have maintained of late that if the malworm is so successful against Iran, why not use it to disable North Korea’s nuclear program, especially the 2,000 centrifuges revealed on Nov. 20 to be operating at a new enrichment facility?

The popular American publication WIRED carried a headline on Monday, November 22, asking, “Could Stuxnet Mess With North Korea’s New Uranium Plant?” The article noted that some of the equipment North Korea was using for uranium enrichment was identical to Iranian apparatus and therefore perfect targets for the use of Stuxnet by American cyber experts.

Stakelbeck on Terror – Iran & Venezuela

November 24, 2010

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Stuxnet knocks Natanz out for a week, hits Iran’s air defense exercise

November 24, 2010

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report November 24, 2010, 9:02 AM (GMT+02:00)

Stuxnet still marching

Despite Iranian claims in October that their nuclear systems were cleansed of the Stuxnet virus, debkafile‘s intelligence and Iranian sources confirm that the invasive malworm is still making trouble. It shut down uranium enrichment at Natanz for a week from Nov. 16 to 22 over breakdowns caused by mysterious power fluctuations in the operation of the centrifuge machines enriching uranium at Natanz.
The shutdown was reported by the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Amano to the IAEA board in Vienna on Tuesday, Nov. 23.

Rapid changes in the spinning speed of the thousands of centrifuges enriching uranium to weapons-grade can cause them to blow apart suddenly without the monitors detecting any malfunction. The Iranian operators first tried replacing the P1 and P2 centrifuges used at Natanz with the more advanced IR1 type, but got the same effect. They finally decided to shut the plant down until computer security experts purged it of the malworm.

But then, when work was resumed Monday, about 5,000 of the 8,000 machines were found to be out of commission and the remaining 2,500-3,000 partially on the blink.

Tuesday, Ali Akbar Salehi, Director of Iran’s Nuclear Energy Commission tried to put a good face on the disaster. “Fortunately the nuclear Stuxnet virus has faced a dead end,” he said. However, the IAEA report and Western intelligence confirm that the virus has gathered itself for a fresh onslaught on Iran’s vital facilities.

According to an exclusive report reaching debkafile, Stuxnet is also in the process of raiding Iran’s military systems, sowing damage and disorder in its wake.

On Nov. 17, in the middle of a massive air defense exercise, Iranian military sources reported six foreign aircraft had intruded the airspace over the practice sites and were put to flight by Iranian fighters. The next day, a different set of military sources claimed a misunderstanding; there had been no intrusions. Iranian fighters had simulated an enemy raid which too had been repulsed.
debkafile‘s military sources disclose there was no “misunderstanding.” The foreign intruders had shown up on the exercise’s radar screens, but when the fighter jets scrambled to intercept them, they found empty sky, meaning the radar instruments had lied.

The military command accordingly decided to give up on using the exercise as a stage for unveiling new and highly sophisticated weaponry, including a homemade radar system, for fear that they too may have been infected by the ubiquitous Stuxnet worm.

If we aren’t going to bomb, we have to deter

November 24, 2010

If we aren’t going to bomb, we have to deter. THE MEDIUM-RANGE Shihab-3 ballistic missile’s


Looking at the existing constellation of realities – the fact that the regime is led by a spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, who was appointed by and receives his instructions directly from Allah; the fact that its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is of arguable sanity, systematically abuses the rights of minority groups, denies that the Holocaust took place, and calls for the destruction of Israel; and the fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran, from its very establishment in 1979, took up Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s decree to “export the Islamic revolution” as the heart of its worldview – all these facts spell danger for the Middle East and Central Asia.

Once this malevolent regime harnesses its resources in a race to become a nuclear power, the safety of the entire world will be at risk.

When the sun rises the day following Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear bomb, the world will awaken to a highly combustive reality: The US, the dominant nuclear superpower, will instantly lose its international hegemony, as we will witness the emergence of a radical Islamic nuclear superpower. Many Middle Eastern and Asian states will race toward nuclear proliferation.

But the most immediately threatened and first to capitulate will be the oil emirates of the Gulf and Arab states, like Iraq and perhaps even Saudi Arabia, whose oil reserves will be swiftly conquered by Iranian forces.

Who would dare block the “messenger of Allah,” armed with a nuclear bomb, from attaining regional hegemony from Lebanon to Oman? To be sure, we will see an outpouring of protests and condemnations, but the world will likely sit back as Iran marches toward realizing its strategy of enslaving the oil-dependent West.

Iran will match its military conquests with intensified support of subversive activity in other states. A nucleararmed Iran will reach out to local Islamic fundamentalist movements in Arab and Muslim countries and assist their takeover through either democratic elections or violence, and then will sign pacts with its new allies.

Iran will not hesitate to use vassal terror organizations – Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian arena, Shi’ite elements in Iraq and elsewhere – to promote its interests. Under the Iranian nuclear umbrella, these organizations will be immune to reprisal.

THIS IS not a worst-case scenario, but a completely reasonable estimate of what will happen from the moment Iran achieves nuclear capability. Efforts to persuade it to forgo its nuclear aspirations through negotiation or sanctions are doomed to fail. This is a regime which sent its own children to their deaths during the Iran-Iraq war. At that time, thousands of children were ordered to obey a “divine command” and march directly into Iraqi minefields, paving the way for Iranian troops with their young corpses. Such a regime would not even blink when it comes to jeopardizing its economy or sacrificing its international interests for the sake of its ultimate goals.

The only way to prevent this scenario is through a sweeping military operation. Only one country has the power to take on an operation of this scale; it is the country with the most at stake and the greatest interest in preventing this new world disorder. That country is the United States.

US motives for preventing a nuclear Iran are numerous, starting with the direct threat already posed by an Islamic fundamentalist state openly developing long-range missiles capable of reaching any target in the Western world. Add the fact that Hizbullah has already infiltrated American soil, cultivating sleeper terror cells.

Yet by far the greatest motive is that a nuclear Iran will signal the instant loss of support from its traditional Middle Eastern allies, beginning with Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states. Iran’s intensive courtship of these countries has long been in full force, lobbying them to cut their American ties and transfer allegiance to the rising regional nuclear power. This trend will only intensify once Iran has the Bomb. Having felt that they have bet on the wrong horse by opting for a special relationship with the US, we will see one country after the other cash in its American chips to buy Iranian favor.

A parallel and no-less-dangerous process will be the wave of nuclear proliferation across the Middle East and central Asia. Iran’s traditional adversaries, fearful of an Iranian invasion, will do everything possible to acquire their own nuclear weapons. This process obviously flies in the face of the Obama administration’s openly declared objective to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Worse yet is the clear and present danger of Iranian Islamic radical terrorist affiliates, armed with a divine command, unleashing nuclear weapons far beyond Iran’s borders.

Should President Barack Obama refrain from taking proactive steps and attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, every country in the world will be thrown into a new, much more complicated and dangerous Cold War-like situation, triggered by the multi-polar nuclear environment.

Next to the tough dilemmas this new state of affairs will pose, the Cuban missile crisis will seem like child’s play.

ONLY THE fear of instant annihilation might dissuade a nuclear Iran from pursuing its expansionist goals.

Western states pitted in conflict against a fundamentalist adversary that follows a divine authority will have a hard time predicting Iran’s next moves or creating deterrents. There is but one option in the face of the Iranian nuclear threat: a new American-led nuclear alliance.

The “second-strike nuclear alliance” would include Western states, pro-Western states and others who fear being targeted by an Iranian nuclear attack. Unlike NATO, the SSNA would not oblige members to supply mutual assistance in the event of a conventional war, but would provide vital strategic backup: the guaranteed destruction of any aggressive nuclear attacker of any of its members – the “second strike” capability. Making an SSNA nuclear umbrella available to members could even prevent a nuclear proliferation trend; it could neutralize Iran’s military advantage over its weaker neighbors, strengthen the West and like-minded countries, and might even deter Iran from threatening to put its nuclear capability to use.

The more determination we see on the part of the Obama administration to avoid military confrontation, the more it must establish doctrines for a new, multipolar Cold War, of which the SSNA would be a pillar.

These principles must become clearly articulated, and set into motion from the moment we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Iran has attained nuclear weapons.

The writer is deputy dean of the Lauder School of Government Diplomacy and Strategy and director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at IDC Herzliya.

Opinion: The strange case of Iran’s centrifuges

November 24, 2010

Opinion: The strange case of Iran’s centrifuges – Michael Adler – POLITICO.com.

A nuclear power plant in Iran is pictured. | AP Photo 

The author writes that Iran’s technical woes pushed the military option of an Israeli or U.S. attack off the table — for now. Close
Iran suspended uranium enrichment for at least one day in November, a new United Nations report reveals. This was, however, the result of technical problems — not because Iran decided to honor calls to rein in its atomic ambitions. 

Still, the news is a surprise, according to the report Tuesday from the U.N. nuclear watchdog. It comes amid speculation about whether sabotage and sanctions are now working against Iran’s atomic program and whether serious talks can be kick-started to assuage fears that Iran is working to make nuclear weapons.

The condition for starting negotiations is that Iran stop uranium enrichment, the process that makes the explosive core of the bomb. Iran has vowed not to halt this strategic work.

The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency’s nine-page confidential report describes the suspension in two discrete footnotes. On Nov. 5, the report notes, some 4,800 centrifuges were spinning at Iran’s Natanz plant, churning out low-enriched uranium. But “on 16 November 2010, no cascades [of centrifuge] were being fed with” uranium feedstock gas. Then the report states, “On 22 November 2010 [however], Iran informed the agency that 28 cascades were being fed.”

This would mean that Iran resumed enrichment with roughly 4,600 centrifuges, out of some 8,400 now installed in Natanz.

IAEA officials gave no explanation for this suspension, but a senior diplomat close to the agency did note that Iran has shut down its centrifuges for short periods of time before, namely “on two or three occasions” since full-scale enrichment began at Natanz in February 2007. The diplomat said the agency could not verify exactly how many centrifuges are turning, since IAEA inspectors did not examine centrifuges one by one, just by cascades of 164 or 174 centrifuges each.

To this unsettling detail was added an expected one. Iran is giving only minimal cooperation under its international obligations for monitoring. When the IAEA asks the Iranians why centrifuges are turned off, their answer is predictable and succinct: None of your business.

One wonders. There have been reports that a computer virus, the Stuxnet, launched by either the United States or Israel, has caused Iranian centrifuges to vibrate out of sync and thus crash. But the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency, Ali Akbar Salehi, denied Tuesday that the Stuxnet worm had brought the centrifuges down.

Meanwhile, some analysts wonder whether international sanctions are keeping Iran from getting crucial parts for its centrifuges or whether parts the Iranians have bought abroad were booby-trapped to malfunction — and so cause centrifuge cascades to break down.

Or perhaps Iran has just invested too much in its centrifuge model, the fragile P-1, which is an early design that countries like Pakistan abandoned on their way to building the bomb. Iran may be reining in its P-1 program to clear the way to replace it with a more advanced centrifuge.

The irony is that North Korea has just revealed that it built an enrichment plant outfitted with the advanced centrifuge model known as the P-2. North Korea skipped the P-1 stage entirely, leapfrogging ahead of its ally Iran.

What is certain is that Iran has fewer centrifuges turning now than it did a little more than a year ago. This slowdown has U.S. officials convinced that Iran’s technical problems grant some two years’ delay before Iran can move decisively forward toward making a nuclear weapon. This leaves time for diplomacy, the officials say.

Yet that diplomacy is stalled — even if talks are expected sometime in December. Iran is stubbornly continuing to enrich, the IAEA says, and it has now amassed 3,183 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, or LEU.

These facts on the ground make first steps more difficult. Washington had wanted Tehran in October last year to ship out 1,200 kilograms of LEU, when it had only about 1,600 kilograms. The goal was to get Iran to swap LEU for a promise of fuel for a research reactor making medical isotopes.

This would have left Iran with only 400-500 kilograms of LEU, just below the amount needed to refine out enough high-enriched uranium to make a bomb. LEU is uranium enriched to less than 5 percent — the refinement level required for power plants. Weapons require uranium enriched to more than 90 percent.

Since Iran now has so much more enriched uranium, the fuel swap deal would have to be significantly modified, that is, if it is to be the confidence-building measure that the United States and its five negotiating partners — Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia — are seeking in order to get talks going.

Another wrinkle is that the atomic agency revealed Tuesday that Iran has now produced 33 kilograms of uranium enriched to almost 20 percent, which Tehran says it is doing to make fuel for its research reactor. The six world powers would want Iran to cease this higher level of enrichment — a major step toward weapons-grade uranium — if talks proceed.

The IAEA report lays out the facts. But it is not much of a crystal ball for those trying to see where this crisis is headed.

The answer, of course, is political rather than technical. The key stress point is not how many centrifuges are breaking down but the cost to leaders of pursuing their policies.

The good news is that there may be some wiggle room for compromise. Iranian officials say they want to talk, to bargain, and Washington’s fuel swap offer lets the Iranians keep enriching — at least in a first confidence-building stage.

It’s a long, and maybe unbridgeable, way from this state of affairs to a settlement. But it’s the road we are on.

The good news is that Iran’s technical woes push the military option of a U.S. or Israeli attack off the table — at least for now.

Michael Adler, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, is working on a book about the Iranian nuclear crisis.

 

Stuxnet Virus ‘Warheads” Could Knock Out Iran’s Utility Systems

November 24, 2010

Stuxnet Virus ‘Warheads” Could Knock Out Iran’s Utility Systems – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

A secret report bt the International Atomic Energy Agency leaked on Tuesday said that Iran had been forced to suspend activity on enriching uranium, because of “technical problems” that have surfaced in thousands of centrifuges at its Natanz nuclear reactor.

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The centrifuges, which are used in the enrichment project, were taken out of service, with the entire enrichment project there on hold, the report said – indicating, observers said, that Iran’s problems with the particularly malignant Stuxnet computer virus were not yet over.

A weekend article in The New York Times quoted German security expert Ralph Langer as saying that the Stuxnet virus, which he identified in September as the worm that has caused major problems at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, was still alive and well, despite Iranian denials. But instead of just disabling centrifuges, the virus can also “confuse” frequency convertors that control all sorts of mechanical and industrial processes, Langer wrote – giving Stuxnet not one, but two “warheads” that could cause severe damage to infrastructure, including water, gas and electric systems.

The virus is also far more virulent than had been thought, Langer said; it was designed to attack control systems manufactured by Germany’s Siemens, which are in use in infrastructure throughout the world. The Times article quoted a U.S. security expert who said that “computer security organizations were not adequately conveying the potential for serious industrial sabotage that Stuxnet foretells,” implying that many of the world’s power plants, water facilities, and other basic infrastructure that are dependent on automated control systems, are at serious risk.

But while that is possible, says Israeli security expert Rafael Sutnick, there seemed to be little likelihood that Stuxnet would “leak out” to other facilities, based on what we know about it so far.

“Whoever unleashed it on Iran seems to have a tight rein on it,” Sutnick said. “So far, Iran is the only place we’ve seen the virus active, indicating that it was a specific target and did not reach the country’s computer network by chance or accident. Whoever designed this knew what they were doing, and the experts who have analyzed the code say that years of work went into designing it. So I don’t see it disabling infrastructure randomly.”

His comments again raise the question of just who might have produced the virus. Already in September, experts were saying that Stuxnet appeared to have been far too sophisticated to have been designed by amateur hackers, and the latest information published by Langer seems to confirm this. Which brings around what has become a perennial question in the Stuxnet saga: If Iran, as Sutnick and other experts say, is being deliberately targeted, does that mean that Israeli experts designed the virus?

“No one knows, and no one will probably ever know,” says Sutnick. “It’s interesting that the IAEA report mentions the Natanz facility as having been compromised. Natanz was built eight meters underground and was topped with dozens of meters of reinforced concrete and earth in 2004, in anticipation of a possible attack by Israeli or American ‘bunker buster’ bombs.

“In other words, Natanz was designed to be the most secure Iranian nuclear site – but it has proven to be as vulnerable as an open computer network, apparently.” Whether Israel was behind the attack is impossible to know, he said – but there’s no doubt that the IAEA report has made Israelis happy.

UN report confirms: Iran halted nuke work in November

November 24, 2010

UN report confirms: Iran halted nuke work in November – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Confidential report: Iran temporarily stopped uranium enrichment earlier this month

Reuters

Published: 11.23.10, 19:37 / Israel News

 

Iran temporarily halted lower-level uranium enrichment work earlier this month, a UN nuclear watchdog report said, after Western diplomats said Tehran’s nuclear program was suffering technical problems. 

The confidential report, obtained by Reuters on Tuesday, did not give any reason for the unusual move by Iran to briefly stop feeding material into centrifuge machines used to refine uranium.

Nuke Threat
Report: Troubles stop Iran enrichment / Associated Press
Diplomats say Islamic Republic’s nuclear program has suffered recent setback, with major technical problems forcing temporary shutdown of thousands of centrifuges enriching uranium. Suspicions focus on Stuxnet computer virus
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It also said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remained concerned about possible activity in Iran to develop a nuclear payload for a missile.

Despite the temporary halt of enrichment work in mid-November, Iran’s total output of low-enriched uranium (LEU) rose to reach 3.18 tons, the report said, suggesting Iran had maintained steady production in recent months.

Experts say that amount could be enough for at least two bombs if refined much further.

A diplomat close to the IAEA said none of the centrifuge units, or cascades, at Iran’s Natanz plant were being fed for enrichment to lower-levels when inspectors visited the site on Nov 16.

“They weren’t enriching uranium,” he said.

Computer virus to blame?

About a week later, Iran informed the UN agency that 28 cascades – each normally containing 164 centrifuges – were enriching uranium again.

The diplomat said he did not know why Iran had temporarily stopped the work or for how long it had lasted. But he suggested a technical issue was the likely reason. He said it had happened a few times in the past, without giving details.

Western diplomats earlier on Tuesday said it was unclear whether the Stuxnet computer virus may have been to blame for technical problems they said Iran had been experiencing.

Iran is using an old centrifuge model which has been dogged by previous breakdowns.

Security experts have said the release of Stuxnet could have been a state-backed attack, possibly from Israel or another foe of Iran, to sabotage the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.