WarSclerotic

Saudi prince: Iran is on ‘explosive’ path in Middle East – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to the U.S., says Washington shouldn’t take military steps against Iran to reassure Israel.

By Reuters

Iran is on an “explosive” course in the Middle East with its pursuit of nuclear enrichment and needs to clear up questions surrounding its program, Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal said on Thursday.

Prince Turki, a former Saudi intelligence chief and former ambassador to the United States, said Washington should not take military steps against Iran’s nuclear program to reassure Israelis over the peace process with Palestinians.

“No one denies that a nuclear Iran is a major international danger, but claiming that the U.S. must take military action against Iran to push forward the Israeli-Palestine peace process is to attempt to harvest apples by cutting down the tree,” he said.

Prince Turki, discussing the Middle East peace process in a speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said a war over Iran’s nuclear program would be “calamitous and not just catastrophic.” It would turn back the clock on peacemaking across the Middle East, from Iraq to Israel, he said.

“The Iranians have to be aware of the explosive nature … of pursuing their present course of enrichment,” he said.

The United States last month announced plans to sell Saudi Arabia up to e60 billion in military aircraft, a deal designed to shore up Arab allies increasingly jittery over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The United States and other countries are concerned that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is aimed at developing atomic weapons, but Tehran denies that. It says the enrichment program is to produce fuel for atomic power.

While the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allows Iran to enrich uranium, “everybody recognizes that they have not lived up to the requirements” of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“They have to come clean on whatever it is that remains as question marks to the world community, and not just the United States and the West,” he added.

Iran has indicated it is willing to meet world powers involved in talks over the nuclear dispute — the United States, Germany, France, China, Britain and Russia — later this month at a time and place to be determined.

It would be the first meeting of the group in more than a year and the first since the United Nations, the United States and the European Union imposed tougher sanctions on Iran earlier this year.

The world powers are hoping Iran will agree to a swap of low-enriched uranium in exchange for nuclear fuel to power the Tehran Research Reactor.

“We do believe that the Tehran Research Reactor offer can create some confidence building,” U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said on Thursday.

He said the deal needed to be updated to account for additional uranium Iran has enriched over the past year, but Iran’s envoy to the IAEA in Vienna dismissed that proposal earlier this week.

	Iranian soldiers simulate battle to mark the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war, September 26, 2010.
	Photo by: Reuters

DEBKA.

Adm. James G. Stavridis

The White House and the Pentagon last week discreetly asked NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Adm. James G. Stavridis, and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to assign teams for drafting operational plans for US and NATO military action against the Iranian nuclear program.
This is reported exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘ sources in Washington.
Those teams would need to work with the heads of the US Armed Forces who would update them on American plans. Our sources add the wording of the request hints that unilateral US action against the Iranian nuclear installations is possible regardless of cooperation with NATO.
Our sources also say that the American request stressed three basic premises as guidelines for the NATO teams:
– NATO commanders were asked to draw up alternative operational plans for limited actions inside Iran.
– These plans must all fall short of precipitating total war with Iran. Any option that might generate all-out war with the Islamic Republic must be taken off the table.
– Regular exchanges will take place between US Armed Forces chiefs and the NATO drafting teams to coordinate any military actions against Iran.
This is the first time since the Cold War with Russia ended in the early 1990s that the United States is integrating NATO in its preparations for an armed conflict.
Ahead of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, President George Bush did not invite NATO to take part in the Iraq war. He also turned down a subsequent offer to join from alliance leaders. Instead, the Bush administration established the Multi-National Force-Iraq.
Now, seven years later, President Barack Obama has gone the internationalist route and asked NATO to assume a role in the preparations leading up to an American military operation in Iran.
Keeping the mullahs on tenterhooks
Whereas the White House does not intend to publish this request formally, it is not averse to any NATO- member government going public with a statement that it has sent officers to planning teams working at NATO headquarters in Brussels on preparations for a military strike against Iran.
This indirect publicity would serve the Obama administration in four ways:
1. Tehran would be made aware that the US president has taken another big step towards American military action against Iran.
2. The Iranians would understand they could be in for a confrontation not just with US forces but a coalition of Western allies.
3. It would turn the heat on Iran ahead of a new round of nuclear talks due to begin this month with the Six Powers (the five Permanent UN Security Council Members + Germany).
4. The knowledge that the US is preparing to destroy their nuclear installations – even though Washington was not seeking a full-scale war – would keep Iran’s rulers on tenterhooks for D-Day.
In the past week, some of the more influential US media have interpreted President Obama’s latest steps and military buildup opposite Iran as signifying he planned to respond to the widely-predicted failure of his Democratic party in the midterm elections of Nov. 3 by focusing on foreign policy.
A boost for Obama’s 2012 reelection race?
Some speculated that hammering Iran and its nuclear installations would give his prospects of reelection as president in 2012 a powerful shot in the arm.
The Washington Post carried a piece by David Broder on October 31 which said: “If Obama cannot spur that [economic] growth by 2012, he is unlikely to be reelected… Can Obama harness the forces that might spur new growth?… What are those forces?… One is the power of the business cycle… What else might affect the economy? The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy. Here is where Obama is likely to prevail… He can spend much of 2011 and 2012 orchestrating a showdown with the mullahs. This will help him politically because the opposition party will be urging him on. And as tensions rise and we accelerate preparations for war, the economy will improve.
“I am not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected. But the nation will rally around Obama because Iran is the greatest threat to the world in the young century. If he can confront this threat and contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he will have made the world safer and may be regarded as one of the most successful presidents in history.”
Broder came in for scathing criticism for these comments from many parts of the American media. But DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s Washington sources report his conclusions were practical and based on his knowledge of trends current in the Oval Office in the White House

Iran is drying up – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Don’t buy into Iranian propaganda and Ahmadinejad’s diversionary visit to Lebanon. The sanctions are forming a chokehold around the Ayatollah regime and Tehran doesn’t know how to free itself.

November, for example, is supposed to be a dark month in Iran, yet authorities there are hiding it as much as possible, This month, the government will be forced to put an end to fuel subsidies, while Europe’s skies will be fully closed off to Iranian planes. Should the West persist with this move, it would lead to a complete boycott and total isolation of the Khomeinist state.

All European states, with the exception of Germany and Austria, closed off their skies to IranAir and private airlines in October. This important step was barely noted by the media here, yet once both Germany and Austria also join the boycott, no state would be willing to fuel Iranian planes – and without refueling they can’t fly. Some companies cancelled their contracts with Iran and others are waiting for them to expire, yet no dignified company would risk its permit to enter the United States. On top of this, all major energy companies already cut off their ties with Iran. This includes the British-Dutch Shell, the French Total, the Italian ENI, the Norwegian Statoil, and others. This means that Iran is already having trouble getting refined fuel. While Chinese and Russian companies are willing to replace Western companies, fueling in Europe for example will no longer be possible by any foreign company.Meanwhile, Lloyd’s, which insured the numerous trucks exporting fuel from Iran, ended its business relationship with Tehran. Now, these trucks cannot enter some states.

Revolution running out of energy

And there’s more to come. As the government in Tehran is facing a real crisis, it announced that on November 21st it shall put an end to fuel subsidies for private vehicles. Up until now, each driver received his first 60 monthly liters of fuel for a ridiculous price of 10 cents per liter, and dozens of more liters at a low cost. Yet in November this arrangement shall draw to an end, which may provoke the angry street.

Iranian citizens know that their government invests crazy sums of money in military equipment and distribution of funds worldwide, at their expense. For that reason, authorities have trouble subsidizing the fuel, a move that costs $100 billion a year.

The Khomeinist revolution is running out of the energy needed to meet the radical targets it set for itself. The world should continue focusing on the sanctions, and then it would be impossible for Ahmadinejad to free himself of the chokehold, which would only get tighter. As Iran persists in its refusal to renounce its nuclear program or even embark on negotiations, the next step should be a full boycott on Iranian airports – as was done to Gaddafi until he caved in. This can be done without a United Nations decision: A European Union decision would suffice, the UN shall follow, and many states would join in.So don’t buy into the shows put up in Tehran and southern Lebanon; they’re a diversion. The Iranian regime is very concerned, and now is the time to keep pressing it.

Iran tightens internal security prior to subsidy cuts.

Photo by: ASSOCIATED PRESS  

By JPOST.COM STAFF
11/04/2010 14:11

Thousands of armed police stationed around Teheran to deter any potential resistance to government’s five-year food, energy plan.

The Iranian government is employing heightened internal security measures in advance of food and energy subsidy cuts this month, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

There are fears of resistance to these cuts, as they will result in rising expenses and inflation for most of the population.

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At a rally on Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned that any businesses that raise consumer prices in reaction to the cuts would be caught, and that they would “regret it forever.”

A police task force has been set up especially to deal with any potential issues and according to the report, several thousand police officers are ready and armed in 2,000 temporary bases around Teheran.

The Iranian governement is planning to eliminate $100 billion in food and energy subsidies each year for the next five years through the cuts. The measures will affect the majority of Iranians, and the goverment will be making cash payments to help ease initial difficulties.

Iran’s opposition leader recently said the country’s president would be unable to successfully implement a plan to slash the subsidies.

Mir Hossein Mousavi was quoted by a prominent opposition web site as saying that Ahmadinejad’s government has sidelined experts who would have been key to enacting the plan aimed at saving the government billions of dollars by bringing prices of key commodities more in line with international norms.

Mousavi also criticized the government for the stationing police and security forces around Teheran ahead of the implementation of the cuts. He said the heavy security presence was intended to intimidate Iranians.

At the same rally, the Iranian president also addressed the nuclear talks, and heavily criticized Russia for reneging on a deal to provide the country with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.

AP contributed to this report.

Iran celebrates 31 years since US embassy takeover.

Photo by: ASSOCIATED PRESS  

By JPOST.COM STAFF AND ASSOCIATED PRESS
11/04/2010 15:42

Rally attended by thousands carrying signs with anti-US and anti-Israel slogans; local security forces on high alert in case of clashes.

Thousands of Iranians participated in a mass rally on Thursday to mark the 31st anniversary of the US embassy takeover in Teheran, news agencies reported.

In November 1979, Islamic students seized the embassy and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

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Thursday’s rally was an anti-US protest with attendees chanting “death to America” as well as anti-Israel slurs.

This year’s annual rally was held under tight security but without challenges from opposition groups. Last year, the pro-government event outside the former embassy compound brought clashes and chaos to central Teheran after protesters held counter-marches over their claims of massive vote rigging in the June 2009 presidential election.

But it was among the last major displays of opposition anger on the streets as embattled authorities stepped up crackdowns and threats to quell the most serious domestic unrest since Iran‘s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

This year, security forces were on high alert for any hints of dissent.

Abbas accuses Iran of trying to sabotage Mideast peace – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In interview with Kuwait newspaper, Palestinian leader also says he may ask U.S. to help draft framework agreement for permanent settlement if peace talks stay stalled.

By Haaretz Service

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday accused Iran of trying using local Islamist elements to sabotage the Middle East peace process, according to media reports.

The Palestinian leader also told a Kuwaiti newspaper during his visit there that peace negotiations could not continue with Israel as long as construction continued in West Bank settlements.

	Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaking at a ceremony in the West Bank city of Ramallah on August 8, 2010.
	Photo by: AP

He said that if the negotiations remained stalled, the Palestinians were considering asking the United States to draft a framework agreement for a permanent Middle East agreement.

Abbas also hinted that he might resign from his post if Israel continued its policies in the West Bank.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 4, 2010, 1:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Missile struck Al Qaeda operative’s car in Gaza

A missile fired from an American warship in the Mediterranean hit the car in which Muhammad Jamal A-Namnam, 27, was driving in the heart of Gaza City Wednesday, Nov. 3 and killed him, debkafile‘s exclusive counter-terror sources report. Namnam was an operational commander of the Army of Islam, Al-Qaeda’s Palestinian cell in the Gaza Strip. He was on a mission on behalf of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula – AQAP to plan, organize and execute the next wave of terrorist attacks on US targets after last week’s air package bomb plot.

According to our sources, the Palestinian cell members were planning to infiltrate northern Sinai from the Gaza strip over the coming weekend and strike American personnel serving with the Multinational Force and Observers Organization – MFO, which is under American command and is stationed at North Camp, El Gorah, 37 kilometers southeast of El-Arish.

In a coordinated operation, Al Qaeda fighters hiding up in the mountains of central Sinai were to have attacked US Marines and Air Force troops stationed at the South Camp in Naama Bay, Sharm el Sheikh.
The twin attacks were scheduled for Sunday, Nov. 7, or the following day.

Our sources say that, just as US-Saudi intelligence cooperation led to the interception of package bombs from Yemen last week, so too US intelligence-sharing with Egypt and Israel foiled a major Al-Qaeda terrorist attack on American personnel in Sinai. Egyptian intelligence picked up on Namnam’s scouting forays of US forces and discovered him caching weapons and explosives ready for the Al Qaeda strike force’s arrival from Gaza.

Israeli intelligence tracked Namnam’s movements in Gaza City. It is quite likely, said a high-ranking Western military source in the Middle East, Thursday, Nov. 4, that the Israelis pinpointed Namnam for targeting by the US ship-borne missile that killed him.

Hamas security sources in Gaza now suspect that Israel had its own reasons for permitting new cars to be imported to the Gaza Strip for the first time in two years, knowing that they would be commandeered for the personal use of the chiefs of armed organizations, including Namnam. They believe Israel planted tracking devices in those vehicles.

The Palestinian sources also say that the blast which killed the Army of Islam man was unusually powerful and reverberated through most of the enclave. Witnesses denied sighting Israeli UAVs or other aircraft over the skies of Gaza.

The Al Qaeda operative’s death by a US missile is the first American targeted assassination in the Gaza Strip against an Al Qaeda target. Up until now, US missions of this kind took place in Iraq, Yemen and Somalia.

debkafile‘s military sources report that, even after the abrupt passing of Al Qaeda’s operational commander in the Gaza Strip, the two MFO camps in Sinai remain on high terror alert. The Al Qaeda cell or cells assigned to hit the South Camp in Sharm el Sheikh are still at large, the objects of a massive manhunt by Egyptian forces. It is also feared that Namnam’s own cells could split and sections head out to North Camp in northern Sinai to complete his mission.

Not just another warning – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: IDF intelligence chief’s grim prediction for next regional war should be taken seriously

The IDF intelligence chief provided a thick hint regarding Israel’s interest in two nuclear programs in enemy countries; he was not only talking about Iran. Was it a slip of the tongue? Hard to believe.

When Israelis woke up the day after the nuclear reactor in Syria was attacked and heard that Israel was suspected of carrying out the strike, officials here were gravely concerned about a looming Syrian missile offensive. They estimated that the Syrians would have to respond to the very revelation of the strike, if only to maintain their honor.

However, for a while now, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been addressing Syria as a state that attempted to produce nuclear weapons in the bombed reactor. Hence, as he is about to complete his tenure, Major General Amos Yadlin was able to let his tongue loose and boast of his achievements. Why not? He deserves it.So this is not just another general warning. This is solid intelligence information. It’s the real thing.

In the past, Yadlin also boasted of the IDF’s capabilities on the cyber warfare front (without anyone understanding why). So why did he expose that secret? Actually, why not? Let the enemy know.Yet we were barely able to digest the first secret, when Yadlin told us, almost in the same breath, that soon the Iranians will possess enough enriched uranium to produce two nuclear bombs. The IDF intelligence chief is not yet another academic expert providing his assessments. His words have operative significance. And when the intelligence chief exposes such information to the world, this is his way of calling on someone to do something. The real thing

However, the most surprising revelation in the intelligence chief’s speech was in fact a warning. Yadlin described what the next war would look like. He said it will not be managed in one theater only – we will not enjoy the luxury of facing Lebanon alone. The war will simultaneously take place in two, three, or even four different theaters.

Central Israel will be attacked by missiles not only from the north, but also from the Gaza Strip, which is home to missiles that today threaten Tel Aviv and its environs. Yadlin made it clear that Operation Cast Lead and the Second Lebanon War are both a scenario from the past. The next regional war would be of different scope, and the casualty toll would be of different dimensions than we’ve known so far.

So this is not just another general warning. This is solid intelligence information. It’s the real thing.

NTI: Global Security Newswire – Tel Aviv to Receive Antimissile Battery.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report November 3, 2010, 8:10 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags: Britain Israel William Hague

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague ruffles feathers in Jerusalem

The sharp differences between Israel and Britain, similar in many respects to the unpublicized arguments between Washington and London, came to the fore Wednesday, Nov. 3, during William Hague’s first visit to Israel as UK Foreign Secretary.

He was informed that Israel had halted the strategic dialogue with the UK in protest against the failure of

successive British governments to repeal a law allowing private individuals to file war crimes suits against foreign dignitaries.

Since 2005, pro-Palestinian activists have used the concept of “universal jurisdiction” to threaten Israeli leaders with arrest for alleged war crimes.Severalserving and former Israeli leaders have cancelled trips to Britain after being warned they could be arrested. The latest was Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, who cancelled his trip to Britain last month to avoid prosecution for taking part in the government decision to intercept a Turkish vessel threatening to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Nine Turks were killed resisting an Israeli army raid.

“As long as they (Israeli delegates) can’t come to Britain without fearing arrest, they won’t come out,” said Andy David, a Foreign Ministry spokesman. “The ball is in their (Britain’s) court.”

Israel made this a public issue not only in protest against Britain being placed off-limits for one of its ministers, but out of deep resentment over the way the foreign secretary’s visit was managed.  According to an advance notice from London, Hague had asked for closed-door sessions at the British ambassador’s residence in Ramat Gan to sound out Israeli intelligence chiefs about the Israeli cabinet’s view on Iran’s nuclear program and their assessments.

Israeli officials pointed out that the British minister was being unbearably patronizing in acting as though London called the shots on the nuclear question rather than Washington and Jerusalem. One Israeli intelligence source complained that an ambassador’s residence was hardly a fitting venue for the discussion of this highly-charged issue, which is customarily aired in the offices of presidents, prime ministers or defense ministers on an equal footing.

Instead of going through the proper channels, Hague sought to summon the Mossad director Meir Dagan, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, Moshe Yaalon, minister for strategic affairs, Dan Meridor and the director general of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, Shaul Chorev to his presence.

The British Foreign Secretary is the authority in charge of MI6, the secret service which corresponds to the US CIA and Israeli Mossad. He is also competent to authorize its operations.
However, Hague pointedly avoided paying a courtesy call on his opposite number, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, or even meeting Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the chairman of Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Tzahi Hanegbi, who leads the strategic dialogue with London. When this was discovered, Jerusalem made it clear that the British Foreign Secretary could invite whom he wished to meet, but all his Israeli guests had been instructed to avoid discussing any substantial military, intelligence or strategic matters with him.

Rather than smoothing ruffled feathers in Jerusalem, Hague hit back by meeting with representatives of three groups at the forefront of the Palestinian civil disobedience movement. After visiting Ramallah, he talked to Palestinians and their supporters about their weekly demonstrations against Israel’s security barrier. Ignoring the violent nature of these protests, Hague praised the idea of “nonviolence” and listened to their arguments. Indeed, he is quoted as telling them that when “negotiations become an eternal promise that is never kept because of Israel’s unwillingness to accept a fair solution, popular resistance to the occupier becomes the only possible alternative remaining to the Palestinians to attain their rights without resorting to armed struggle.”
The British minister’s words were taken in Jerusalem as questioning the integrity of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s constantly rebuffed request for direct talks with the Palestinians and, moreover, as incitement of the Palestinians to turn to “popular resistance” (a term the Palestinians used for their 2000-2002 suicide terror war against Israel).

Hague, the first member of the British Conservative to visit Israel, will find before he leaves Thursday, that  Israeli officials have washed their hands of him.