Archive for November 3, 2010

Hague’s visit sparks Israel-UK clash on Iran, Mid East, Palestinians

November 3, 2010

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report November 3, 2010, 8:10 PM (GMT+02:00)

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague ruffles feathers in Jerusalem

The sharp differences between Israel and Britain, similar in many respects to the unpublicized arguments between Washington and London, came to the fore Wednesday, Nov. 3, during William Hague’s first visit to Israel as UK Foreign Secretary.

He was informed that Israel had halted the strategic dialogue with the UK in protest against the failure of

successive British governments to repeal a law allowing private individuals to file war crimes suits against foreign dignitaries.

Since 2005, pro-Palestinian activists have used the concept of “universal jurisdiction” to threaten Israeli leaders with arrest for alleged war crimes.Severalserving and former Israeli leaders have cancelled trips to Britain after being warned they could be arrested. The latest was Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, who cancelled his trip to Britain last month to avoid prosecution for taking part in the government decision to intercept a Turkish vessel threatening to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Nine Turks were killed resisting an Israeli army raid.

“As long as they (Israeli delegates) can’t come to Britain without fearing arrest, they won’t come out,” said Andy David, a Foreign Ministry spokesman. “The ball is in their (Britain’s) court.”

Israel made this a public issue not only in protest against Britain being placed off-limits for one of its ministers, but out of deep resentment over the way the foreign secretary’s visit was managed.  According to an advance notice from London, Hague had asked for closed-door sessions at the British ambassador’s residence in Ramat Gan to sound out Israeli intelligence chiefs about the Israeli cabinet’s view on Iran’s nuclear program and their assessments.

Israeli officials pointed out that the British minister was being unbearably patronizing in acting as though London called the shots on the nuclear question rather than Washington and Jerusalem. One Israeli intelligence source complained that an ambassador’s residence was hardly a fitting venue for the discussion of this highly-charged issue, which is customarily aired in the offices of presidents, prime ministers or defense ministers on an equal footing.

Instead of going through the proper channels, Hague sought to summon the Mossad director Meir Dagan, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, Moshe Yaalon, minister for strategic affairs, Dan Meridor and the director general of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, Shaul Chorev to his presence.

The British Foreign Secretary is the authority in charge of MI6, the secret service which corresponds to the US CIA and Israeli Mossad. He is also competent to authorize its operations.
However, Hague pointedly avoided paying a courtesy call on his opposite number, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, or even meeting Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the chairman of Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Tzahi Hanegbi, who leads the strategic dialogue with London. When this was discovered, Jerusalem made it clear that the British Foreign Secretary could invite whom he wished to meet, but all his Israeli guests had been instructed to avoid discussing any substantial military, intelligence or strategic matters with him.

Rather than smoothing ruffled feathers in Jerusalem, Hague hit back by meeting with representatives of three groups at the forefront of the Palestinian civil disobedience movement. After visiting Ramallah, he talked to Palestinians and their supporters about their weekly demonstrations against Israel’s security barrier. Ignoring the violent nature of these protests, Hague praised the idea of “nonviolence” and listened to their arguments. Indeed, he is quoted as telling them that when “negotiations become an eternal promise that is never kept because of Israel’s unwillingness to accept a fair solution, popular resistance to the occupier becomes the only possible alternative remaining to the Palestinians to attain their rights without resorting to armed struggle.”
The British minister’s words were taken in Jerusalem as questioning the integrity of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s constantly rebuffed request for direct talks with the Palestinians and, moreover, as incitement of the Palestinians to turn to “popular resistance” (a term the Palestinians used for their 2000-2002 suicide terror war against Israel).

Hague, the first member of the British Conservative to visit Israel, will find before he leaves Thursday, that  Israeli officials have washed their hands of him.

What is Stuxnet doing, who is to blame and what has been learned from it?

November 3, 2010

What is Stuxnet doing, who is to blame and what has been learned from it? – SC Magazine UK.

A survey on the Stuxnet worm that is currently being run by McAfee has so far determined that 58 per cent of people believe that it ‘was an insider job’.

It is around six weeks since SC Magazine first looked at the worm and what it actually was. Since then it has come up in many conversations as evidence of the advancement of malware and as a major threat, but at the same time there has been conflicting views on how serious it remains to be.

Kaspersky Lab claimed at the end of September that it had ‘not seen enough evidence to identify the attackers or the intended target’ but it could confirm that it is a one-of-a-kind, sophisticated malware attack backed by a well-funded, highly skilled attack team with intimate knowledge of SCADA technology.

It claimed that it believed that this type of attack could only be conducted with nation-state support and backing. Eugene Kaspersky, co-founder and chief executive officer of Kaspersky Lab, called this the turning point to cyber terrorism.

He said: “This malicious program was not designed to steal money, send spam or grab personal data. This piece of malware was designed to sabotage plants, to damage industrial systems. I am afraid this is the beginning of a new world.  Twenty years ago we were faced with cyber vandals, ten years ago we were faced with cyber criminals, I am afraid now it is a new era of cyber wars and cyber terrorism.”

It also said that Stuxnet is a working and fearsome prototype of a cyber weapon that will lead to the creation of a new arms race in the world.

This view was supported by Alan Bentley, SVP international at Lumension, who called Stuxnet ‘one of the most complex pieces of malware ever detected and the first known to target real-world infrastructure such as water plants, power stations and industrial units’.

He said: “The worrying thing about Stuxnet is that mischief or financial reward wasn’t its purpose, it was aimed right at the heart of a critical infrastructure. Government organisations across the world need to think carefully about how they are protecting their power stations, water plants and industrial units, from malicious attack. Traditional security technologies that are on the look out for already identified malicious code, will fail during such sophisticated attacks.

“Stuxnet isn’t just another piece of malware. It is the most refined piece of malware ever discovered. It exploited four previously unknown and unpatched vulnerabilities in Windows. That said, the attack could have been stopped in its tracks at the very beginning. Step one of the infiltration was via a USB port and there is the technology called device and application control that when used, prevents unauthorised applications from uploading and executing.”

There is general acknowledgement in the information security community that malware is evolving. Francis deSouza, SVP of Symantec’s security group, said that modern malware such as Stuxnet was evidence of several man years of work and a collection of skills that were involved in putting it together. The next stage seems to be on where it is going and where it came from.

Graham Cluley, senior technology consultant at Sophos, warned against finger pointing without proof when proportioning blame, claiming that it was more appropriate (if the claims are true) to call this a state-sponsored cyber attack rather than cyber terrorism.

He said: “I think we will see more and more attacks which will be blamed on state-sponsored cyber attacks in the future. There have been numerous attacks in the past which could be said to have possible military, political or economic motives, but it is very difficult to prove that a hack was ordered by Mossad or instead dreamt up by a Macclesfield student.”

F-Secure’s chief research officer Mikko Hypponen told SC Magazine: “We have never found out who wrote it, who was the target and was it successful or not? It could have been written in summer 2009 and there is no way for us to know. It could be 100 per cent successful and we might not know about it. The Stuxnet binary is out and we will see how it works and modifies.”

Talking to SC Magazine, after he originally explained the threat, Patrick Fitzgerald from Symantec’s threat response centre, said that a paper was written ahead of the Virus Bulletin conference detailing the threat and an internal group called ‘Deepsight’ was created within Symantec, but he had not seen anything new released.

Asked if there was any change, he said: “The study is telling us that there is still something there so there are many different options but nothing new. There were two update instances in September: connection to the command and control centre (C&C) and via P2P. We closed down the C&C and expected something with the P2P but nothing happened, nothing updated itself, we still haven’t seen any other version and I think it will be around for a while.

“It is ahead of anything we have seen before, technologies used never seen before especially when you put the machinery version in. The creator would need to know SCADA, as it is very complex. I don’t expect an update, given that there is a lot of effort that has gone into it. I don’t think any more will happen.”

I suspect the next headlines written about Stuxnet will be on how to efficiently remove the worm followed by more finger pointing on who was behind it. While it is a remarkable piece of malware in all senses, its short lifespan will leave a legacy of what others will learn from it.

US About-Face on Syria; ‘Golan not Worth Lebanon’

November 3, 2010

US About-Face on Syria; ‘Golan not Worth Lebanon%u2019 – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

In a sign of another failure of U.S. President Barack Obama’s foreign policy of ”engagement,” a top US official said Syria can forget Israel’s surrendering the strategic Golan Heights while it damages American interests in Lebanon.

Jeffrey D. Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told the Washington Post Tuesday, “Syria has said that it wishes to have its territorial expectations met through a peace agreement with Israel and that Syria recognizes the essential role that we can play in achieving that… But our interest in a comprehensive peace doesn’t mean that we are going to start trading our other interests in Iraq or Lebanon in order to get Damascus to like us better.”

The Netanyahu government last summer passed a law that no part of the Golan Heights can be surrendered without a public referendum.

President Obama and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have sent Feltman several times to Syria, despite its being officially designated by the United States as a country that supports terror.

His statements to the Washington Post made it clear that the Obama administration is holding the Golan Heights, which Syria occupied until the Six-Day War in 1967, as a bargaining card. The area includes vast water resources and the Hermon Mountains, a key observation post and military assets. It overlooks Israeli communities around the Sea of Galilee and before the 1967 war, children in the area slept in shelters as there was constant Syrian shelling of their homes from the Heights.

Feltman said that ‘Syria’s friends are undermining stability in Lebanon….There is a cost to the potential in our bilateral relationship to what Syria’s friends are doing in Lebanon.”

Syrian President Bashar Assad withdrew thousands of Syrian soldiers from Lebanon due to American pressure following the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, a former anti-Syrian prime minister of Lebanon. Syria and Hizbullah have been widely accused of being behind the massive car bomb attack that killed Hariri.

Since the military withdrawal, Hizbullah – with the backing of Iran and Syrian President Bashar Assad – has increased its military presence, joining the Lebanese army as well as acting as a Syrian-proxy in the government, where it holds veto power over major legislation.

Feltman’s statements came one day after Assad accused the Obama administration of causing world chaos by interfering in Lebanon, Afghanistan and Somalia, among other countries and regions.

Syria also rejected “irresponsible” American accusations of undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty and said the charges are a “pure Israeli will,” apparently meaning that the United States is acting on behalf of Israel. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told reporters that Syria displayed a “flagrant disregard” for Lebanon’s sovereignty and political independence.

Iran Could Ignite Israeli-Palestinian Agreement

November 3, 2010

Iran Could Ignite Israeli-Palestinian Agreement | Iran | Jewish Journal.

Even before the bombs mailed from Yemen dominated the non-election news, talk around the coffee table was inevitably coming around to the Middle East. The phenomenon united news-savvy citizens sitting in a souk in Turkey; a hotel in Bethlehem or east Jerusalem;  and even a trendy LA restaurant.

Initially phrased in terms like, “Is there going to be peace in the Middle East…in my lifetime?,” the parameters quickly narrow and more often than not “the Middle East” becomes rightly defined as “the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”  Typically, the questions then become more in-line with, “Will there be a Palestinian state in a year?” or “Will the Palestinians bolt the U.S.-brokered talks and take their chances at the U.N.?” or for the better-informed, “Can Israel maintain its security if it swaps land?” or even “Are the Palestinians sure they want statehood now given all it implies?”  Yet, most recently, we’re hearing conversations beginning with Israel and Palestine quickly turn to Iran, its region and finally global threat.

While Iran holds the world hostage with its advancing nuclear proliferation and its savvy, methodical wooing of super powers Russia and China; vulnerable Islamic nations including Syria, Lebanon and even Turkey, are sufficiently concerned that each is doing its best to hedge their bets – making noises pleasing to the hardliners while taking advantage of the Obama administration’s determination to leave the diplomatic door open even as sabers are rattled and oratory turns nasty. Witness the warm and fuzzy Al-Asad visit to Ahmadinejad replete with vicious anti-American diatribes that came exactly while pressure on the president to disengage from Damascus was growing perceptibly.

Western interests, led by the U.S., are focusing on those Muslim nations that have earned the appellation “moderate” – a code-word meaning if nothing else, they share with the West the fear of a nuclear Iran. Or at least enough of a fear to signal Western policy planners that it’s not out of the realm of reality to count the subject nation on the right side of the “Iran or the Rest” line-in-the-sand. All while keeping mind that none of this is black-and-white. Arab nations will not easily cast a pro-American shadow absent an adequate return; and last year, China replaced the European Union as Iran’s largest trading partner because of its ability to supply it with oil and petroleum. Russia’s relations, too, are based on economic exchanges with Iran.

Far from being a one-way street, both China and Russia seek to maintain their respective positions as super powers in part through access to Iran’s rich and abundant natural resources. The recent signing of an energy collaboration between Iran and Russia spanning a 30-year period illustrates the point, while on the China front, Beijing is selling oil to Iran to the tune of 12% of the fuel it uses and has opened a missile plant in the Islamic Republic. Natural gas deals lie in the future. Such tangible ties render the U.S. more vulnerable in these strategic power plays – particularly in its attempt to slap sanctions on Iran with the necessary approval of both China and Russia increasingly difficult to come by.

Meanwhile, back at teatime in Ramallah and Jerusalem, officials from both sides opine that a deal between the Israelis and Palestinians would strengthen the moderate Arab alliance so badly needed as a regional block to the conflict Iran poses – the real mother-of-all-Mideast-conflicts. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf countries fear the doomsday combination of Iran’s military strength and fanatical political brain trust – arguably even more so than either Israel or the United States. It’s a perspective shared with me by dozens of Mideast sources, albeit most invoking anonymity although not a factor mitigating the veracity of the belief in a region where significant policy forms behind closed doors.

An old standard among Israel-Palestine arguing points suggests that Palestinians will not provoke or support Iran because Palestinians, too, reside within the bulls-eye of Iranian missile batteries.  Today’s realities include mock drills in Jordan centering around the aftermath of a fictitious nuclear attack in the area of the Dead Sea, complete with participating experts assembled by the Prepatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Ban Treaty Organization The stated goal: that no nuclear explosion goes undetected.

Short of nuclear involvement, Iran continues to foment hostilities in the Middle East through massive deliveries of conventional weapons to terror proxies HIzbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Iranian- treachery prepares the environment to support Al-Qa’ida – both in presence and in philosophy – replicating the clear field the world terrorist network enjoys in Yemen.  Extend to its logical conclusion where Prime Minister Erdogan’s blatant courting of Islamist hardliners threatens to take Turkey, and references to the world’s most dangerous region take on new meaning.

Fatah-Hamas reconciliation used to be an open-and-shut argument for supporters of Israel. But Iran’s unstoppable nuclear ambitions; Ahmadinejad’s incessant belligerence; and the abject fear the Islamic Republic is spreading throughout the Middle East is rapidly simplifying the equation, making choices and repercussions clear. In doing so, Iran appears to be more effective in illustrating the upside of an Israeli-Palestinian rapprochement than the American interlocutors have so far been able to do.

Felice Friedson is President and CEO of The Media Line Ltd., an American news agency specializing in coverage of the Middle East. She is founder of The Mideast Press Club. Felice Friedson can be reached at felice_friedson@yahoo.com.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles In The Service of the Israel Air Force

November 3, 2010

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles In The Service of the Israel Air Force :: Weekly Blitz.

The Israel Air Force (IAF) has a rich history of employing unmanned aerial vehicles in battle with excellent results, and is set to expand significantly its drone operations in the coming decades, as the increasing sophistication of these vehicles makes them suitable for a rapidly expanding set of roles. In the future, the IAF’s drone force could alter Israel’s strategic landscape, reinforcing both its nuclear and conventional deterrence, as well as making it less dependent on American military assistance.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), often referred to colloquially as drones, can claim a lineage that dates back to the dawn of air warfare. Though quite rare in comparison to the enormous numbers of manned aircraft involved in the first and second world wars, UAVs participated in both conflicts, especially the latter, mainly as attack vehicles armed with high-explosive warheads. Not until the Vietnam War, however, did drones really find a defined niche on the battlefield, when the United States Air Force conducted thousands of reconnaissance sorties over hostile territory with UAVs.

With the possible exception of the United States, Israel is the country most closely identified with UAV operations in the post-World War II period. The Jewish state has actually employed drones in a variety of roles since the early 1970s, but it initially gained worldwide attention for its operations during the 1982 Lebanon War, in which its UAVs played a substantial part in the destruction of the Syrian integrated air defense system (IADS) erected in Lebanon. Recent asymmetric conflicts—the 2006 Second Lebanon War against Hizballah and the 2008–2009 Operation Cast Lead against Hamas—sparked renewed global interest in Israeli drone operations.

Nevertheless, outside of the international defense community—professional soldiers, military analysts and journalists, arms designers, and so on—familiarity with the Jewish state’s UAV operations, past and present, is not widespread. A brief review of Israel’s experience with drones, as well as a few thoughts about the future of its UAV force, then, seems entirely in order. The employment of these vehicles is set to expand dramatically in the years ahead, if the fighting in places as diverse as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza is any indication of what is just over the horizon.

UAVS AND THE ARAB–ISRAELI CONFLICT

The Israel Air Force (IAF) first employed UAVs on a large scale in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. During the opening days of the conflict, the air force suffered heavy losses at the hands of the Egyptian and Syrian IADS. Instead of focusing its efforts on the destruction of these systems at the outset of hostilities, as envisaged in its prewar battle plans, the IAF was called upon to stem the advance of Egyptian and Syrian land forces in the Sinai and on the Golan, respectively, because the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), taken by surprise by the Arab assault, had not deployed to the fronts its reserve units, which constituted the bulk of its fighting power. The IAF, therefore, flew hundreds of sorties against the Egyptian and Syrian armies, regardless of the cost exacted by their IADS.

Once the IDF’s reserve units had reached the battlefields, blunted the Egyptian and Syrian offensives, and stabilized the fronts, the IAF sought to cut its losses to anti-aircraft fire. In its quest to do so, it began to employ its American-supplied Firebee and Chukar drones (Israel had yet to deploy any UAVs of indigenous design and manufacture) as decoys to draw this fire away from its aircraft, especially on the Sinai front. The fact that the IAF’s losses to anti-aircraft fire dropped dramatically after the first few days of hostilities suggests that the drones had a positive impact on the air war. Whether the IAF also employed its UAVs to gather photographic intelligence and to attack surface-to-air missile (SAM) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) batteries is not known. In any case, its Yom Kippur War experience appears to have convinced the IAF that drones could be effective tools on the battlefield.

During the late 1970s, Israel fielded its first generation of homegrown UAVs, the Scout and Mastiff. Though small and unsophisticated by the standards of later generations of drones—these compact, twin-tailed, propeller-driven vehicles carried very limited payloads of rather simple electronic systems, mainly video cameras and, perhaps, infrared detection equipment—they nevertheless proved quite effective in service. Prior to the Lebanon War, these vehicles, in tandem with IAF reconnaissance aircraft, routinely monitored the Syrian IADS in Lebanon. While expendable decoy drones drew anti-aircraft fire—a few of them were even shot down—other drones and reconnaissance aircraft gathered valuable information on the locations and electronic signatures of SAM batteries, which the IAF then integrated into its battle plan for destroying the Syrian IADS in a potential future confrontation.

With the commencement of hostilities in summer 1982, UAVs played a prominent part in the IAF’s spectacular elimination of the Syrian IADS in the Beqa’a, which saw about 20 SAM batteries knocked out on the first day of Operation Mole Cricket 19, the code name given to the plan to demolish that air defense network. Subsequent air strikes on following days wiped out additional batteries. The IAF also destroyed considerable numbers of AAA batteries.

The IAF’s drones filled several roles during the battle. First, decoy UAVs, especially the locally developed Samson, lured the Syrians into activating their radar systems. The radar systems then fell prey to air-delivered precision-guided weapons (PGMs), such as the American Standard anti-radiation missile (ARM), and ground-launched PGMs, such as the Israeli Keres ARM. Other air-delivered PGMs, like the Israeli Tadmit television-guided missile and the American GBU-15 television-guided glide bomb, added to this maelstrom. With the radar systems out of commission, aircraft and artillery smashed the SAM launch positions at will with a mixture of general-purpose bombs and shells, as well as cluster munitions. Second, one SAM battery may actually have been taken out by a UAV fitted with a warhead, perhaps a precursor to—or prototype of—the later Israeli Harpy attack drone. Third, the IAF undoubtedly employed UAVs for real-time surveillance and target acquisition during the battle, as well as for post-battle damage assessment.

During the Lebanon War, UAVs also engaged in other missions on behalf of the Israeli war effort. They provided constant, real-time surveillance of Syrian air force bases, alerting IAF air battle controllers to the take-offs of Syrian aircraft. This information helped the controllers to vector IAF aircraft to optimal intercept coordinates, contributing to the lopsided score in a series of air battles, in which Israeli pilots shot down 80–100 Syrian aircraft without incurring a single loss. One UAV even scored a “no weapons kill” of its own through wild maneuvering, when a Syrian aircraft attempting to shoot it down collided with the ground after the pilot lost control.

Finally, UAVs also assisted the IDF’s ground campaign. Drones furnished real-time intelligence on the location and movement of Syrian and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) units. Such data clearly assisted IDF commanders in planning and executing impressive tactical engagements, such as the large-scale defeat inflicted on Syrian armor by Israeli tanks and infantry around Lake Karoun. The employment of drones as part of the IDF’s ground campaign, in short, opened up a whole new avenue in air-land battlefield cooperation.

Buoyed by the accomplishments of its UAV force in the Lebanon War, Israel continued to develop more sophisticated and specialized drones over the following decades. During the 1990s, the IAF deployed both the Searcher 1 and 2, essentially significantly bigger and more capable versions of the earlier Scout and Mastiff, fitted with broader and more advanced arrays of electronic systems, as well as the Harpy attack drone intended primarily to destroy air defense radar systems. In the same decade, the Jewish state tinkered with the idea of developing a long-range, missile-launching drone to shoot down ballistic missiles in their “boost phase,” but apparently abandoned the effort on cost grounds.

Since the early twenty-first century, the IAF has fielded the Hermes 450, Hermes 900, Heron, Heron TP, and, possibly, other (classified) UAV models. The Heron TP is an especially large vehicle—it has the wingspan of a Boeing 737 aircraft—that can carry a state-of-the-art suite of sensors, including electronic warfare systems. Some of these drones can apparently be armed with small missiles (such as the American Hellfire or the Israeli Spike) for attack missions. The Heron TP is supposedly able to carry a one-ton bomb. Israel’s aerospace industry has also developed several models of hand-launched “micro-UAVs,” a number of which have been field-tested by IDF infantrymen for short-range intelligence-gathering missions.

Naturally, the accumulated knowledge gained by Israel in UAV design and deployment has not gone unnoticed by other countries. Israeli drone technology has been exported around the globe. Countries like the United States, India, Turkey, Great Britain, and Germany either have bought UAVs directly from the Jewish state or they have manufactured them at home under license. Furthermore, IAF drone operators routinely share their experiences with their foreign counterparts. American drone operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in particular have benefited heavily from Israeli input.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the main operational theater of the IAF’s UAV force remained south Lebanon. The air force’s drones played an especially active part in the Jewish state’s two large-scale anti-Hizballah incursions, Operation Accountability in 1993 and Operation Grapes of Wrath in 1996. Even before the incursions, the IAF employed UAVs to locate Hizballah training camps, arms depots, command posts, and rocket launchers. During the fighting, drones provided real-time data on various targets, including moving vehicles in the process of transporting insurgents from one location to another and rocket launch sites. Air and artillery units then engaged these objectives with precision fire. It is unclear whether UAVs also “lit up” targets with laser designators for air-delivered PGMs to home in on. It is certain, on the other hand, that the round-the-clock, real-time intelligence furnished by drones proved effective in many instances in knocking out Hizballah targets, even if the incursions themselves ended inconclusively.

The participation of the IAF’s UAV force in IDF operations has grown ever larger in the latest rounds of Arab-Israeli hostilities, namely the so-called al-Aqsa Intifada, the Second Lebanon War, and Operation Cast Lead. During the intifada, drones, most prominently, relayed real-time intelligence on terrorist positions and movements to air and ground units in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza around the clock. Though no information has been made public on specific UAV missions, it is likely that drones played an integral part in many “targeted attacks” by helicopter gunships on terrorist operatives and Qassam rocket launch sites. These attacks, collectively speaking, killed considerable numbers of high-ranking terrorists and disabled many Qassam batteries. Armed drones may even have executed some of these targeted attacks.

Perhaps the most extensive deployment of drones, however, occurred during the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead. During the first night of the Second Lebanon War, IAF aircraft essentially destroyed Hizballah’s long-range rocket force in 30 minutes of intensive air strikes. UAVs, quite likely, not only helped to pinpoint the launch vehicles prior to this air assault, but also took part in target acquisition during the strikes and in battle-damage assessments after them. Real-time surveillance of medium- and short-range rocket launch sites by drones throughout the fighting also drastically shortened the “sensor-to-shooter” loop by the end of the war; IAF aircraft and helicopter gunships were able to destroy launchers within a mere two minutes of launch detections by UAVs. Armed drones may have carried out some attacks on Hizballah targets, while other UAVs may have “painted” these objectives with laser designators for air-delivered PGMs.

Drone deployment in Operation Cast Lead more or less followed the pattern established in the Second Lebanon War. The IAF’s UAV force primarily provided real-time intelligence to air and ground units for them to act upon in engaging Hamas targets, whether command posts, transport vehicles, rocket launchers, arms storage depots, or even individual terrorist operatives. Armed drones may once more have executed some strikes with Hellfire or Spike missiles, while other UAVs may have actively assisted aircraft or helicopter gunships by lighting up targets for PGMs.

Interestingly, around the time of Operation Cast Lead, unconfirmed news reports surfaced to the effect that IAF drones had engaged in sorties very far from Israel’s borders. One story reported that they were conducting electronic warfare missions over Iran in order to interfere with ballistic missile tests by jamming telemetry systems. Another story claimed that they were flying surveillance and battle-damage assessment missions over Sudan in support of an air strike there that destroyed a Hamas-bound Iranian arms convoy. The Heron and Heron TP drones are capable of staying in the air for at least 24–36 hours (most likely much longer), which means that they certainly have the range to engage in such missions.

UAVS AND THE IAF’S FUTURE FORCE STRUCTURE

In terms of the technological sophistication of its UAV force, Israel is unquestionably well ahead of the pack. Only the United States is in the same league. Likewise, in terms of the scope and effectiveness of the tactical uses to which it has put its UAV force, the Jewish state is far ahead of other countries. Again, only the United States is a peer in this regard. Nevertheless, even though the IAF considers drones to be an extremely valuable and cheap “force multiplier,” it has not divulged any concrete information about whether it intends to develop its UAV force into an instrument that will equal, or even surpass in certain respects, its manned aircraft fleet in the coming decades.

The IAF, according to foreign reports, presently fields three drone squadrons in its order of battle. These same sources credit it with possession of 15 fighter-bomber squadrons, four helicopter gunship squadrons, as well as a whole range of transport, training, intelligence-gathering, and electronic warfare squadrons. Moreover, the air force intends to add to its arsenal in the next decade from one to three fighter-bomber squadrons of the new F-35 Lightening II fifth-generation stealth aircraft (which would likely replace its oldest jets). Thus, at least for the near future, the air force order of battle appears as if it will be weighted heavily in favor of manned aircraft.

Such an emphasis would seem to make sense for now. Drones, after all, will not possess the capabilities to fulfill many of the roles of manned aircraft for years to come and may never be able to fill some of them. UAVs (with the potential exception of the very largest among them) cannot presently carry the types of—not to mention the quantities of—bombs and missiles necessary to destroy large, heavily fortified targets, such as Iran’s nuclear installations. Nor can they defend airspace against hostile aircraft and drones. Nor can they move soldiers and supplies around the battlefield or deep into an opponent’s hinterland. Nor can they provide as thorough intelligence-gathering and electronic warfare coverage as dedicated manned aircraft in some situations. The list of missions that drones either cannot yet execute at all or can only carry out less effectively than manned aircraft, of course, could be extended well beyond this handful of examples.

Still, the list of missions for which UAVs are fit has grown substantially over the past few decades, a reality to which the IAF is sensitive. Furthermore, not only are drones much cheaper to build, equip, and fly than manned aircraft, but they also do not risk the lives and limbs of the men and women who operate them. And, unlike manned aircraft, they can remain over a target area for long periods of time in order to gather intelligence, to disrupt communications, or even to launch attacks. For these reasons alone, it would seem to make a great deal of sense for the Jewish state not only to expand considerably its drone force in size and capabilities, but also to formulate a general battle doctrine for their employment alongside its manned aircraft fleet. Whether in a full-scale conventional war, an asymmetric conflict, or a low-intensity counterinsurgency campaign, a massed UAV force able to swarm the battlefield with whole squadrons of drones dedicated to specific roles—such as attack, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare—would clearly be of tremendous assistance to the IAF in achieving Israel’s military objectives.

The IAF, naturally enough for an air force of a state perpetually in conflict with its neighbors, is a very security-minded organization. Its long-range work plan with respect to building up the numbers and capabilities of its drone squadrons is thus a carefully guarded secret. Similarly, though it is likely that the air force has given sustained, in-depth thought to the formulation of a general battle doctrine for their employment, its thinking on this issue as well is a closely held secret.

For clues—albeit circumspect and sporadic—as to the direction in which the IAF may be headed in the realm of UAV warfare, however, one can turn to Israel’s premier aerospace think tank, the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, the research arm of the Israel Air Force Center (IAFC), a nongovernmental organization with close ties to the air force. The institute has a study center devoted to thinking about how drones can be employed on current and future battlefields. Much of the Fisher Institute’s research on UAVs is also secret, but it has published some literature on drone warfare and has hosted at least one conference partially open to the public on the topic. At this gathering, active and retired senior IAF officers indicated that, while the air force does not yet have quite enough confidence to entrust drones with its most vital missions, it is definitely committed to the process of making them an ever larger part of future operations, including attack sorties.

UAVS AND ISRAEL’S STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE

A large and robust UAV force has the decided potential to alter Israel’s strategic landscape in the future, with implications for both nuclear and conventional deterrence. In respect to the former, drones could buttress deterrence in two distinct ways. First, a sizable fleet of long-range, highly advanced reconnaissance drones could supplement the Jewish state’s growing surveillance satellite capabilities. The ability of UAVs to hover over a target area for long periods means that they could effectively serve as “gap fillers” for space-based platforms that almost certainly could not remain “on station” for the same duration of time. This capacity would be particularly valuable during a crisis situation. Drones, for example, could continually monitor Iranian ballistic missile launch sites. If linked to active (e.g., the Arrow anti-ballistic missile interceptor) and passive (e.g., warning sirens) defenses, UAVs could enhance Israel’s ability to counter a nuclear (or biological or chemical) weapons strike with ballistic missiles. Aware of this capability, a potential attacker, such as Iran or Syria, would have to add this consideration to its decision-making calculus before deciding upon a strike.

Second, drones could enhance the Jewish state’s nuclear deterrence by reinforcing its “second strike” capability. Though Israel, according to media reports, already possesses a potent retaliatory capability—one based upon a triad of submarine-based, nuclear-armed cruise missiles; land-based, nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles; and air-delivered nuclear bombs—UAVs could nevertheless bolster this asset. Drones configured either to deliver nuclear weapons (e.g., via air-launched cruise missiles) or to serve as the actual attack vehicles (e.g., as super-smart, super-destructive descendants of the German V-1) could strengthen the aerial component of the triad. UAVs require much less ground infrastructure than manned aircraft and can therefore operate from comparatively small and remote sites that would be hard to locate, let alone hit. They would thus be highly likely to survive a first strike. Once again, a potential attacker would have to take this consideration into account before deciding upon a strike.

In respect to conventional deterrence, drones could augment Israel’s overall qualitative edge over its opponents on the battlefield in the decades ahead. Many experts maintain that fifth-generation aircraft, such as the F-35, essentially represent the end of the line for manned fighter-bomber development. Though UAVs may never entirely displace manned aircraft over the battlefield, they are in many ways the wave of the future with respect to aerial warfare. This trend augurs rather well for the Jewish state, as it is presently far ahead of its opponents in the realm of drone warfare. Moreover, this technological and doctrinal gap, in all likelihood, will only grow wider in the coming years, as Israel is in a position to expand its capabilities in this area at a much faster pace than its opponents.

Finally, over time, UAVs could modify somewhat the dynamics of the American-Israeli patron-client relationship. The national security threats faced by the Jewish state are quite long-standing, multifaceted, and serious. This dangerous political environment, coupled with the state’s limited economic capacity, means that Israel will remain dependent on American security assistance indefinitely; however, the build-up of a large and powerful drone force could lessen the magnitude of that dependence. Israel, after all, is most dependent on the United States in regard to the supply of advanced fighter-bombers. To the extent that these aircraft are replaced in the future by indigenous UAVs, there will be a concomitant reduction in Israel’s reliance on American assistance. Less dependence on security assistance from the United States, in turn, could lead to greater freedom of action for the Jewish state in a crisis situation where its national interests and those of its benefactor do not necessarily coincide.

Former IAF commander David Ivri has commented that:

Changes in force structure must come about by evolution, by selecting the proper pace for activating these changes. The selection of the pace of change in itself demands serious thought and an orderly decision process, and such a process will result in the optimal decisions. If this is not done, we may find ourselves in combat situations in which we will be required to perform immediate upheavals—that is, drastic changes in doctrine and courses of action that will generally be less effective and more expensive. Therefore, it will be preferable to make changes in force structure at preliminary stages, so that they can be done at the correct evolutionary pace.

The limited amount of information about the IAF’s drone force in the public domain suggests that the air force has taken Major General Ivri’s advice to heart.

David Rodman is the author of Arms Transfers to Israel: The Strategic Logic Behind American Military Assistance (Sussex Academic Press, 2007) and Defense and Diplomacy in Israel’s National Security Experience: Tactics, Partnerships, and Motives (Sussex Academic Press, 2005).

Ahmadinejad: Russia has sold us out to our enemies

November 3, 2010

Ahmadinejad: Russia has sold us out to our enemies.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned Russia‘s decision not to supply Iran with S-300 missiles in accordance with a previous agreement on Wednesday.

Speaking at a rally that was broadcast live on Iranian television, Ahmadinejad told his gathered audience that “some people who are under the influence of Satan [the US] thought that if they can unilaterally and illegally cancel some defense agreements that they have with us, it will hurt the Iranian nation”

He went on to accuse Russia of “selling out” to Iran’s enemies and said that in his eyes, the original deal is still valid and therefore should be executed.

In September, Russia canceled plans to supply Iran with the anti-aircraft missiles due to UN sanctions imposed against the country.

“A decision has been taken not to supply the S-300 to Iran, they undoubtedly fall under sanctions,” the ITAR-TASS news agency quoted Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov as saying at the time.

The system, the S-300, is one of the most advanced multi-target anti-aircraft-missile systems in the world, with a reported ability to track up to 100 targets simultaneously while engaging up to 12 at the same time. It has a range of about 200 kilometers and can hit targets at altitudes of 90,000 feet.

Iran signed a deal with Russia to buy the system in 2007.

Yaakov Katz contributed to this report.


 

What is Israel really doing about Iran?

November 3, 2010

MESS Report-Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

Most of Israel’s intelligence activity remains a deep secret, including its efforts to stop Tehran’s nuclear program and the smuggling of arms to Gaza and Lebanon.

In his final briefing to the Knesset as head of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin summed up the security situation on Tuesday, at the end of his five-year term, by saying the security front is unusually quiet and that Israel’s intelligence coverage of its enemies has improved – but that the next war, if and when it erupts, will be worse than its predecessors, especially for the home front.

Yadlin, who is retiring after 40 years in the Israel Defense Forces, warned Knesset members “not to be misled” by the current calm.

Ahmadinejad in Lebanon - AP - Oct 13, 2010 Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives at Beirut International Airport on Oct. 13, 2010.
Photo by: AP

He gave them new details about the anti-aircraft missiles Syria is acquiring and Iran’s plans to build two new uranium enrichment facilities. And he warned that if another war breaks out, it is likely to be a much wider conflict than the last two, and said the casualties will almost certainly be much higher.

During Yadlin’s tenure, Military Intelligence obtained a bigger budget, and broadened and deepened its intelligence activities. It also set up a new unit to improve the operational aspects of MI’s work, one of the lessons it learned from the Second Lebanon War. And despite occasional crises, Yadlin maintained close cooperation with the other intelligence agencies.

But most of Israel’s intelligence activity remains a deep secret. What is Israel really doing to delay Iran’s nuclear program or thwart arms smuggling to Lebanon and Gaza? We don’t know.

What operations is it conducting in other countries? We don’t know that either – though we do know an MI officer was decorated by the chief of staff this week for an unspecified secret operation. Did Lebanon really succeed in breaking up an Israeli spy ring? That, too, is unknown.

And here’s something else we don’t know: Was this really Yadlin’s final briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee? That is far from certain.

Yadlin has been well-regarded by his political and military superiors – both the last Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and the current one, both the last government and the current one – and is considered a leading candidate to replace Meir Dagan as head of the Mossad either this year or next (depending on whether Dagan’s term, which is scheduled to end in December, is extended for another few months ). Yadlin may not be eager for the job, but one can assume he would accept it if the prime minister and defense minister offer it to him.

The key factor in determining whether such an offer is made is likely to be his view of an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Yadlin, the last of the pilots who carried out the 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor who is still in active service, has never expressed an opinion on this matter in public; indeed, he has given few interviews and made few public appearances in general.

Dagan and IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi have repeatedly been described over the last year as leading advocates of a moderate approach to Iran. But both of them will soon leave office. Their successors’ views on this issue will presumably to have a major impact on all senior defense appointments in the coming months.

Outgoing MI head: Iran can already produce a nuclear bomb – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

November 3, 2010

Outgoing MI head: Iran can already produce a nuclear bomb – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In final security briefing, Amos Yadlin hints Syria also has nuclear installation and expresses concern over consequences related to acquisition of anti-aircraft weapons.
By Jonathan Lis

Iran is busy setting up two new nuclear installations, according to the head of Military Intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin. Speaking before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yadlin said that MI has indications that work has began on the installations, but did not comment on the sources.

Yadlin also told the MKs that Iran has sufficient enriched uranium to manufacture a single nuclear device and may soon have enough for making another bomb.

Yadlin Military Intelligence Major General Amos Yadlin.
Photo by: Olivier Fitoussi

Tuesday was Yadlin’s last meeting before the Knesset committee in his role as head of MI. He is due to step down after five years in the post.

Yadlin’s briefing covered the entire spectrum of the security situation facing Israel and the region. “The recent security calm is unprecedented but there should be no mistake that there are efforts [by elements] in the area to grow stronger. The next military confrontation will not be between Israel and another country, but between Israel and two or three different fronts at the same time. It will not be similar to anything we have grown accustomed to during the Second Lebanon War or Operation Cast Lead,” he warned.

Yadlin also said that Syria has undertaken an intensive procurement program of advanced military hardware from Russia, and that nearly everything that comes off the manufacturing line is being delivered to the Syrians. “The systems in question are advanced, mostly mobile, and are capable of hitting air force aircraft. The effective, deadly missiles will make it more difficult for the air force to have freedom of operations,” he said.

Syrian’s acquisition of anti-aircraft weapons will substantially hinder the ability of the air force to gain command of the air over Syria in time of war.

“In the past we estimated that within 48-72 hours we would command the sky over Syria. Currently the assessment is that it will take more time and we will have more losses,” Yadlin said.

Referring to Iran, Yadlin said that there are an estimated 3,000 to 4,000 centrifuges busy enriching uranium to levels of 20 percent. “It is only a matter of time and continuously running the centrifuges until they reach 90 percent enrichment and could make military use of the material,” sources who participated in the briefing said.

The Iranian nuclear installation at Qom, which was uncovered by western intelligence a year ago, is still being built under the supervision of inspectors. Iran has declared that it intends to construct 10 more installations, and information is emerging that currently two are underway.

Yadlin said that Israel continues to deter its enemies on three levels: air power, technological edge and intelligence. He said that in order to overcome these Israel’s enemies have invested in offensive missiles and improvement of their air defenses.

The head of MI said that Hezbollah is continuing to grow stronger in Lebanon and has acquired advanced weaponry. Assessments in Israel are that the advanced weapons being transferred to Syria may make their way to Hezbollah in due time.

Yadlin revealed yesterday that a great deal of data collected by the investigators of the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was stolen by Hezbollah when its men attacked investigators who came to question a doctor who had been at the scene of the killing.

The outgoing head of MI also hinted at the strike on the purported Syrian nuclear installation, when he said that during his tenure he had faced two nuclear programs.

“I changed three defense ministers, two chiefs of staff and two prime ministers, I had two wars and confronted two nuclear programs in enemy countries. I headed a team of thousands who work 24 hours a day to collect information that the enemy is not handing out freely, information that must be taken out of difficult places and that needs to be processed, questioned and prepared in the form of insights that can be passed on to be used by my clients,” Yadlin said.

With regards to the Palestinians, Yadlin said that reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is unlikely, and that tensions between the two groups are only getting worse. Also, he does not believe that the PA has a real chance of returning to power in the Gaza Strip. He said that the breakout of a new intifada is also not expected to occur any moment. However, he warned that in view of the armaments available to Hamas, “an Operation Cast Lead II will be much more complicated.”

“The crisis between Israel and the U.S. is a given, but the Palestinians took it out of all proportion – in an effort to bypass the direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and achieve international recognition of a Palestinian state,” Yadlin said.

He said that the Palestinian Authority security forces are operating against Hamas in the West Bank because they want to avoid a repetition of what took place in the Gaza Strip. Yadlin estimates that PA President Mahmoud Abbas does not intend to resign, at least not in the foreseeable future, and remains steadfastly opposed to the use of terrorism.

Yadlin believes it is possible to reach an agreement with Abbas on the refugees issue based on quotas of refugees that Israel will allow into its territory.