WarSclerotic

Possible Israeli Cyber Attack Sabotaged Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Reactor.

Though the Stuxnet cyber-attack which likely targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities may’ve begun as early as 2009, computer security experts have only this month published their full analysis of one of the most sophisticated and powerful computers worms ever developed, and what industrial damage it may’ve done. Stuxnet is malware likely designed to infiltrate Iranian (60% of computers infected were in Iran) industrial computers which controlled numerous automated processes in factory production cycles.  The most likely target according to most experts consulted would be Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor complex, which last year was reported by Israeli media to have been sabotaged and faced extensive production delays.  The speculation is that the centrifuges refining uranium for use in the facility may’ve been undermined by deliberately erroneous commands, which may’ve either destroyed the equipment or corrupted the enrichment process.

By all accounts. the worm is so advanced, performs so many functions, and operates in such a complex fashion that it can only have been produced by the intelligence agency of a sovereign nation.  We can imagine which nations would have the capacity to mount such an operation and the motivation to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program.  The CIA and Mossad (or IDF military intelligence) spring to mind.  My money is either on Israel and a shared operation mounted in some way by both countries.

IDF military intelligence has such a capability, Unit 8200, which analyzes intercepted communications and performs all manner of cyber-warfare tasks.  A recent profile of the group described its operations in some detail though didn’t deal with the question of whether 8200 may’ve been involved in this attack.  Forbes published this warm and fuzzy profile as well making 8200 out to be a real cool version of Silicon Valley.

This military unit performs a similar role in Israeli society to that of the Silicon Valley here.  Since most Israelis serve in the army, this [8200] is where the techno-geeks among them gravitate.  And when they exit their military service with their advanced technical training, they not only create commerical technology start-ups, they also continue developing products for Israel’s security apparatus.  Such an 8200 alumnus founded Carmel Ventures, an Israeli venture capital outfit which funded Yuval Tal’s Payoneer, a U.S. company providing prepaid debit cards to its customers, who happened to be two of the Mossad hitmen who “hit” Mahmoud al-Mabouh in Dubai.

Since I don’t claim to be a computer security expert, but feel that Stuxnet is a very important development not only in and of itself, but also for the impact it will have on the Iran nuclear debate, I’m going to quote at some length from the recent technical articles about it in industry publications.  It’s really fascinating stuff even for a layperson.  Let’s start with PCWorld:

Researchers studying the worm all agree that Stuxnet was built by a very sophisticated and capable attacker — possibly a nation state — and it was designed to destroy something big…some of the researchers who know Stuxnet best say that it may have been built to sabotage Iran’s nukes.

…Last week Ralph Langner, a well-respected expert on industrial systems security, published an analysis of the worm, which targets Siemens software systems, and suggested that it may have been used to sabotage Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor...Bushehr reportedly experienced delays last year, several months after Stuxnet is thought to have been created, and according to screen shots of the plant posted by UPI, it uses the Windows-based Siemens PLC software targeted by Stuxnet.

…One of the things that Langner discovered is that when Stuxnet finally identifies its target, it makes changes to a piece of Siemens code called Organizational Block 35. This Siemens component monitors critical factory operations — things that need a response within 100 milliseconds. By messing with Operational Block 35, Stuxnet could easily cause a refinery’s centrifuge to malfunction, but it could be used to hit other targets too, Byres said. “The only thing I can say is that it is something designed to go bang,” he said.

…This is not something that your run-of-the-mill hacker can pull off. Many security researchers think that it would take the resources of a nation state to accomplish.

Last year, rumors began surfacing that Israel might be contemplating a cyber attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

It is common for such malware to exploit a single weakness to infect a computer or system, but Stuxnet uses four separate vulnerabilities, which is unheard of for such worms.  It also uses two forged digital certificates, which further indicates the highly sophisticated nature of the attack.

CNET’s report amplifies on Langner’s findings:

“With the forensics we now have, it is evident and provable that Stuxnet is a directed sabotage attack involving heavy insider knowledge,” he wrote. “The attack combines an awful lot of skills–just think about the multiple zero-day vulnerabilities, the stolen certificates, etc. This was assembled by a highly qualified team of experts, involving some with specific control system expertise. This is not some hacker sitting in the basement of his parents’ house. To me, it seems that the resources needed to stage this attack point to a nation state.”

Computerworld’s report quotes Symantec experts who have studied the worm extensively:

The Stuxnet worm is a “groundbreaking” piece of malware so devious in its use of unpatched vulnerabilities, so sophisticated in its multipronged approach, that the security researchers who tore it apart believe it may be the work of state-backed professionals.

“It’s amazing, really, the resources that went into this worm,” said Liam O Murchu, manager of operations with Symantec’s security response team.

“I’d call it groundbreaking,” said Roel Schouwenberg, a senior antivirus researcher at Kaspersky Lab. In comparison, other notable attacks, like the one dubbed Aurora that hacked Google’s network and those of dozens of other major companies, were child’s play.

Here they analyze in greater details the particular ways in which Stuxnet operates and the technical ambition and complexity required to create it:

Once within a network — initially delivered via an infected USB device — Stuxnet used the EoP [elevation of privilege] vulnerabilities to gain administrative access to other PCs, sought out systems running the WinCC and PCS 7 SCADA management programs, hijacked them by exploiting either the print spooler or MS08-067 bugs, then tried the default Siemens passwords to commandeer the SCADA software.

They could then reprogram the so-called PLC (programmable logic control) software to give machinery new instructions.

On top of all that, the attack code seemed legitimate because the people behind Stuxnet had stolen at least two signed digital certificates.

“The organization and sophistication to execute the entire package is extremely impressive,” said Schouwenberg. “Whoever is behind this was on a mission to get into whatever company or companies they were targeting.”

O Murchu seconded that. “There are so many different types of execution needs that it’s clear this is a team of people with varied backgrounds, from the rootkit side to the database side to writing exploits,” he said.

The malware, which weighed in a nearly half a megabyte — an astounding size, said Schouwenberg — was written in multiple languages, including C, C++ and other object-oriented languages, O Murchu added.

“And from the SCADA side of things, which is a very specialized area, they would have needed the actual physical hardware for testing, and [they would have had to] know how the specific factory floor works,” said O Murchu.

“Someone had to sit down and say, ‘I want to be able to control something on the factory floor, I want it to spread quietly, I need to have several zero-days,’” O Murchu continued. “And then pull together all these resources. It was a big, big project.”

…Put all that together, and the picture is “scary,” said O Murchu.

So scary, so thorough was the reconnaissance, so complex the job, so sneaky the attack, that both O Murchu or Schouwenberg believe it couldn’t be the work of even an advanced cybercrime gang.

“I don’t think it was a private group,” said O Murchu. “They weren’t just after information, so a competitor is out. They wanted to reprogram the PLCs and operate the machinery in a way unintended by the real operators. That points to something more than industrial espionage.”

The necessary resources, and the money to finance the attack, puts it out the realm of a private hacking team, O Murchu said.

“This threat was specifically targeting Iran,” he continued. “It’s unique in that it was able to control machinery in the real world.”

“All the different circumstances, from the multiple zero-days to stolen certificates to its distribution, the most plausible scenario is a nation-state-backed group,” said Schouwenberg

Symantec has also published a more technically detailed analysis of Stuxnet for the more adept among you.

Let’s step back and ask a few questions.  While Stuxnet and other types of sabotage may’ve delayed Iran’s nuclear production and research, do we really believe that Iran’s scientists are so simple and naive that they would create only a single track for their work?  Do we really believe this will cause any more than a temporary delay for them in developing their nuclear technology?  No matter how damaging the worm is, no matter how impressive the technical achievement that brought it forth, it’s at best a stop-gap measure.  As such, it doesn’t get at the root issue or the root way to resolve the problem which, once again like a broken record, I proclaim to anyone who will listen is a negotiated diplomatic solution.

Whatever Iran is trying to do cannot be stopped except by negotiation or war, leading to toppling the regime and replacing it with a West-compliant one (and good luck with that).

In regards to the latter option, if Israel deliberately used cyber-sabotage in order to mess with the minds and facilities of Iranian scientists, they may’ve coupled such an operation with a more deliberate one to bomb the facilities later.  Such a two-pronged approach would make more sense from a military-intelligence perspective than simply messing up the production schedule of Bushehr for a year.  But again, what do I know, I’m only speculating.  Educated speculation by someone who has studied such minds at work for some time–but speculation nonetheless.

Ahmadinejad in Syria: Mideast states will foil U.S. plan to alter region’s politics – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iran, Syria presidents meet in Damscus after Assad-U.S. talks; Ahmadinejad says Israel has no place in the future of the region.

By The Associated Press

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday that Middle Eastern countries will disrupt American and Israeli efforts to change the political geography of the region, appearing to brush aside U.S. efforts to forge a regional peace deal between Israel and its neighbors.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made the comments during a brief stop in Syria where he held talks with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.

	Syria’s President Bashar Assad welcomes Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Damascus on September 18, 2010.
	Photo by: Reuters

The meeting comes two days after Assad sat down with the Obama administration’s special Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, in Damascus, to discuss starting separate Syria-Israel peace talks.

The back-to-back trips underscored the battle for influence in Syria between Washington and Tehran. Seeking to isolate Iran, U.S. President Barack Obama has tried – unsuccessfully, so far – to pry Damascus away from its alliance with Tehran.

Speaking in Damascus, Ahmadinejad appeared to dismiss U.S. efforts to forge a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians and a wider deal with its neighbors.

“Those who want to change the political geography of the region must know that they will have no place in the future of the region,” Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying by Iran’s state-run news agency IRNA.

“The waves of free nations to join this resistance is spreading every day,” he added.

Ahmadinejad said before his visit to Syria that he and Assad would discuss key areas of conflict and tension in the Middle East, including Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. He also told Iranian state TV Friday that he and Assad would discuss the West’s moves in the region, an apparent reference to the United States.

“We have to be ready and in harmony,” he said in the state TV interview, without elaborating.

Washington is at odds with Iran over its nuclear program, which many Western nations fear is aimed at making weapons. Iran says its nuclear activity has only peaceful energy production aims.

The U.S. began reaching out to Syria soon after U.S. President Barack Obama took office, and has made repeated overtures to Damascus this year, including nominating the first U.S. ambassador to Syria since 2005 and sending top diplomats to meet with Assad.

Mitchell said during his visit Thursday that the U.S. was determined to reach a comprehensive peace in the Middle East and that the administration’s efforts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict did not contradict peace between Israel and Syria.

Syria and Iran are both under U.S. pressure because of their support for anti-Israel militant groups. The U.S. also accuses Syria of secret nuclear activities, which Damascus denies.

The two leaders stressed the need for Iraqi politicians to overcome arguments that have delayed formation of a new government there after national elections in March, according to Syria’s state news agency, SANA.

Ahmadinejad also called the new Israeli-Palestinian peace talks – revived this month with Washington’s mediation – a failure, according to Iran’s state-run Press TV. He said Israel had no place in the future of the region.

The Iranian president was also to stop in Algeria before heading to New York to attend the United Nations general assembly next week.

Solar flares could paralyse Britain’s power and communications, Liam Fox says – Telegraph.

Britain’s electrical system, financial networks and transport infrastructure could all be paralysed by a solar flare or a nuclear attack, Liam Fox will warn next week.

Natural events on the surface of the sun can cause electromagnetic disruption which can shut down electrical equipment and cripple orbiting satellites Photo: ALAMY

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report September 17, 2010, 9:33 AM (GMT+02:00)

Egypt nabs Hamas security chief Mohammed Dababesh

debkafile reports exclusively that Egyptian security detained Hamas’ head of security Mohammad Dababesh at Cairo international airport Friday, Sept. 17, the first high-ranking Palestinian held for questioning by Egyptian security. It is not clear whether Dababesh was on his way back to or from the Gaza Strip. Our sources report that he is no doubt being grilled on the Grad missile attack launched against Eilat and Aqaba from Sinai on Aug. 3, in which two Egyptian border posts were destroyed.
He is senior enough in Hamas  to have been in on that incident and knowledgable about the West Bank cells responsible for murdering four Israelis near Hebron on Aug. 30 and injuring a couple at the Rimonim junction two days later. The Egyptian authorities may therefore have acted to nab Dababesh on a tip-off from Israel.
debkafile reported earlier Friday, that a joint Israeli military-Shin Bet unit raided the Nur a-Shams camp in the West Bank town of Tulkarm and killed Iyad Assad Ahmad Abu Shalbaya, identified as deputy chief of the West Bank Hamas network responsible for those murders.
This was Israel’s first major operation against known Palestinian terrorist chiefs in some years. It was carried out after Palestinian security forces failed to catch up with the perpetrators.
Shalbaya was caught in the dragnet the IDF and undercover units have cast across the northern and southern West Bank areas since early this week to thwart the wave of terror Hamas threatened for the purpose of derailing talks with the Palestinians and hitting Israel over the Jewish Yom Kippur festival which begins Friday night.

The Palestinians claim Shalbaya was killed in his bed. The Israeli army spokesman reports he was shot as he ran toward them in a threatening manner and refused to stop.

His chief, Banshath al-Karmi, 34, of Hebron, is actively sought along with the Hamas cells preparing to strike in the next 24 hours, according to the latest intelligence input. Jerusalem appears to be a particular target. From Thursday night, Sept. 16, measures have been in place to keep bomb cars out of the capital, including a ban on the movement of vehicles from the Arab sector of East Jerusalem to the Israeli city as of Friday.

debkafile‘s military sources add that time will tell if Israel’s counter-terror operations have been effective in stalling Hamas’ plans or, just the opposite, galvanized Hamas into more extreme action, either on the part of their hidden West Bank cells in which the terrorist group invested great efforts, or in the form of another missile barrage from the Gaza Strip to follow the assaults of this week.

Shin Bet Director Yuval Diskin warned the Israeli cabinet session Sunday, Sept. 12 that the Hamas military arm Izz-e-din al-Qassam had given all its teams strict orders to go all-out in order to bring about the collapse of the Israel-Palestinian talks begun at Sharm el-Sheikh on Sept. 13.
Our sources disclose that Hamas’ West Bank commander, Al-Karmi, was arrested by the IDF in 1999, a year before the Palestinians launched their suicide killers’ war on Israel. He was held for three years. Shortly after his release in 2002, he was picked up again and held in administrative detention for three months.
In 2004, he was shot and seriously injured during an IDF operation in Hebron and restricted to a wheel chair for a long period. Nonetheless, Al-Karmi has always been the live wire of Hamas’ organs of terror on the West bank. Last year, he was appointed commander of the new clandestine network Hamas set up in the territory.

Report: US wants borders set in 3 months – Israel News, Ynetnews.

London-based Arabic-language paper al-Sharq al-Awsat says Washington hopes to overcome obstacle of settlement freeze: suggests Israel prolongs freeze by three months during which borders issue will be resolved

Roee Nahmias

Washington is trying to circumvent the obstacle posed by the settlement freeze in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, and has devised a compromise which will allow the sides to make progress on other issues.

The London-based Arabic-language al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Thursday that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has suggested a compromised according to which Israel will prolong the settlement freeze by three months and the time period wil be used by both parties to reach an agreement on the border issues.

According to the report, once new borders are set, Israel will be able to resume its settlement activity in the areas remaining under its control; and will cease all activities in areas it is expected to withdraw from.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat said Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has accepted the offer, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to give his answer.

American sources close to Clinton’s delegation said they believed this offer had the best chances of preventing a deadlock in the talks.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has already threatened to walk away from the negotiating table should Israel resume its settlement activity, when the current freeze ends, on September 26.

Abbas’ statement reportedly followed a previous one by Netanyahu, saying settlement activity will resume as planned.

Ahmadinejad criticizes threat of new US sanctions.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
09/16/2010 09:39

In NBC interview Iranian president says IAEA should focus attention on “illegal Zionist regime”; Israel constantly threatening its neighbors.

U.S. confirms intense efforts to restart Israel-Syria peace efforts – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

U.S. envoy Mitchell, arriving in Damascus Thurs., says Israeli-Palestinian talks could support simultaneous Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

By Barak Ravid and Zvi Bar’el

Special U.S. envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell confirmed at a press conference in Jerusalem on Wednesday that the United States is making intense efforts to restart negotiations between Israel and Syria.

	U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Mideast envoy George Mitchell announce re-launch of direct peace talks on August 20, 2010.
	Photo by: AP

Mitchell said U.S. President Barack Obama has been briefed on the results of these efforts.

Mitchell said Washington did not consider the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations a barrier to Israeli-Syria talks. On the contrary, he said, the two tracks could help each other.

He also said his deputy, Fred Hof, had recently been to Damascus and met with senior government officials about resuming the Israeli-Syria talks. On Hof’s return to Washington, he reported on the outcome of his meetings to Mitchell, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Obama.

Mitchell said efforts to restart the Israeli-Syrian track would continue Thursday when he arrives in Damascus for talks with President Bashar Assad.

Channel 10 television reported on Tuesday that Hof visited Israel this week and told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Assad wanted to resume talks with Israel without preconditions, but was seeking American assurances that Israel would withdraw from the Golan Heights.

Meanwhile, the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida reported that Netanyahu sent a message to Assad via the U.S. in which he said he believed Israel and Syria could reach an agreement within a year.

Turkey to do ‘everything possible’ for peace

Meanwhile, Ankara will do everything in its power to achieve peace between Israel and Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Wednesday.

Speaking at a conference in Istanbul, he also claimed that Turkey and the United States see eye to eye on the Iranian nuclear question. “Turkey will do everything possible for peace between Israel and Syria,” Davutoglu vowed.

Two days previously, Syrian President Bashar Assad had termed Turkey an essential partner in the diplomatic process between his country and Israel. In earlier statements, the Syrian leader had similarly said Damascus would not give up Turkish involvement in the process with Israel.

The Turkish foreign minister had been scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in May to discuss continuing the indirect talks between Israel and Syria. But the Israel Navy’s interception of a Turkish-sponsored flotilla to the Gaza Strip, in which nine Turkish citizens were killed, scuttled Davutoglu’s plans.

Davutoglu’s latest statements follow a meeting this week between Assad and France’s Middle East envoy, Jean-Claude Cousseran, a former French ambassador to Damascus. Cousseran is under orders from French President Nicolas Sarkozy to convince Syria to accept France as the lead mediator in Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

Turkey considers its role as mediator between Syria and Israel as a way of advancing its goal of becoming a key player in the Middle East peace process, and is thus concerned over the possibility of losing its standing to France. Turkish sources said Ankara will try to reestablish contacts between Israeli and Syrian officials in the coming months.

“A diplomatic process in which Turkey participates could significantly dissipate the impact of the flotilla affair on relations between the two countries,” a source in Turkey’s Foreign Ministry told Haaretz. “We do not see any contradiction between the talks that are being conducted between Israel and the Palestinians and the resumption of the Syrian-Israeli channel.”

Turkish mediation could also help Ankara reach agreement with the U.S. on an arms package it wants to procure, as well as improving its image after it refused to support further UN sanctions against Iran. But Turkey is still refusing to comply with an American request to deploy anti-ballistic missiles on its soil as part of a regional defense system against an Iranian missile strike.

Ankara has also rejected Israel’s request that the captain of the Mavi Marmara – the flotilla ship on which all the deaths occurred – provide testimony to the Turkel Committee, which is investigating the May raid. Turkey maintains that Captain Mahmut Tural’s testimony is already in the report that a Turkish committee investigating the incident prepared for a UN probe of the affair.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 16, 2010, 8:28 AM (GMT+02:00)

Netanyahu’s Golan withdrawal map

Following the two-day Israeli-Palestinian face-to-face supervised by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, US Middle East envoy George Mitchell prepared for a major US diplomatic breakthrough during his visit to Damascus Thursday: The possible revival of Syrian-Israeli peace talks. He carries with him for Syrian president Bashar Assad a detailed map drawn up by Binyamin Netanyahu to represent Israel’s proposed withdrawal from much of the Golan. This map is a DEBKA-Net-Weekly Exclusive.
The Israeli prime minister refused to go into borders between Israel and the future Palestinian state at the talks he held with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas at Sharm el-Sheikh Tuesday, Sept 14. First he wanted to dispose of other issues such as security.

His tactics for Syria are quite different. Three months ago, Netanyahu showed President Barack Obama detailed maps of the Golan showing how far he was willing to pull Israel forces back, provided Assad followed in the footsteps of the late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat who visited Jerusalem in November 1977 and was rewarded with a full peace accord with Israel and the recovery of the entire Sinai Peninsula and its demilitarization.

Two conditions for Syria
A second Israeli condition for negotiating a peace-plus-withdrawal pact is the severance of the Assad regime’s strategic and military ties with Iran and termination of its backing for Hizballah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and a host of Palestinian terrorist organizations enjoying Syrian sanctuary and hospitality.

When he last visited the White House on July 6, Netanyahu presented this plan to Obama as his ultimate objective. However, debkafile‘s sources in Washington report that the US President, Hillary Clinton and George Mitchell have adopted it as giving them enough leeway to tempt Assad into peace diplomacy with an active American hands-on.

Our sources report that France has been brought aboard the initiative.

When French President Nicolas Sarkozy saw the Netanyahu map, he appointed the eminent diplomat Jean-Claude Cousseran as special envoy for promoting an Israeli-Syrian peace accord. Cousseran was in Damascus on Monday, September 13, and spoke privately with Assad. Right after that conversation, the Elysee told the White House and Hillary Clinton that the door was open for Mitchell to present Netanyahu’s proposals and map.

This week the Obama administration has embarked on two major Middle East diplomatic projects in the hope that by striking gold on at least one, its mediators can stimulate a second.
debkafile‘s Jerusalem sources note that while the US and French presidents have been made privy to Netanyahu’s peace initiatives and maps (shown exclusively here on debkafile), the prime minister has never shown them to his own government, his security cabinet or his inner Forum of Seven – excepting only for Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

debkafile‘s Exclusive Map represents Netanyahu’s proposed lines of withdrawal

In territorial terms, Israel and the IDF would pull back to what is known as the Ridge Line, thereby ceding to Syria the entire Golan plateau together with most of the communities living there. In military terms, Israel would be left with the comfortable option of quickly regaining control of the territory if the peace accords break down.

Geographically, Golan plateau is 1,800 square kilometers in area. Syria commands a third and Israel roughly 1,200 square kilometers. Netanyahu’s proposed withdrawal line (see attached map) is located 2.5 kilometers from the Jordan River. It is the last high-altitude area before the land on the western face of Golan drops steeply down to the Jordan River, the Hula Valley and Sea of Galilee.
Even after the bulk of the territory is restored to Syria, the Ridge Line offers Israel two major advantages compared with a total withdrawal up to the Jordan River.

1. Israel would retain control of the western and eastern banks of the Jordan River, a major source of its water supply. A troop presence on the two banks would make it easier to transfer military forces back to Golan in the event of war.

2. The Ridge Line is a natural barrier to passage in and out of the Golan. It would give the population centers of the Hula and Sea of Galilee valleys below with an Israeli military firewall against the Syrian shooting attacks plaguing them before the 1967 war and place an obstacle in the path of Syrian tanks trying to break from Golan to the lowlands of northeastern Israel.

According to our sources, Netanyahu has been trying for three months to convince Obama to place the Syrian peace track ahead of the fairly hopeless Palestinian process. He has shown the president how far Israel is prepared to go in ceding territory for drawing Assad to the negotiating table.

The prime minister also argued that, barring minor differences, his plan was very similar to one put forward by Frederic Hoff, the Syrian expert on Mitchell’s team, which proposes a two-stage Israeli withdrawal to the Ridge Line.

Stage One:  After pulling back to central Golan, Israel would still retain its early warning stations and surveillance posts on Mt. Hermon and so command the vista from Golan to Damascus 40 kilometers away. Israel would also control both eastern and western banks of the River Jordan, making it easier to redeploy troops on the Golan in the event of a war.
Stage Two: Israel would also continue to hold the rim of the sheer rocky southern slopes dropping down to the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers which are impassable to armored units. This would act as a firewall against the Syrian shooting attacks which plagued Israel from 1948 until the Golan was seized in 1967 and a barrier against Syrian tanks breaking through to Israel’s northeastern lowlands.

Israelwould not have to withdraw west of the Jordan for a number of years – until Syria’s commitment to peace is proven.
According to our sources, Netanyahu is ready to buy into the Hof plan with the necessary adjustments.

Hof, our sources note, is the high-ranking American diplomat dispatched recently to Assad with a warning of serious consequences if he gave Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist organizations like Hamas for major free rein for terrorist attacks against Israeli targets with the aim of torpedoing the direct Israeli-Palestinian talks.

This same diplomat was also sent to Beirut last month with Washington’s warning that a repetition of the firefight provoked by Lebanese troops with an Israeli border unit on Aug. 3 would result in the IDF wiping out the Lebanese army in the space of four hours.

Gloria Center: Millions of Virgins; Millions of Martyrs. These Guys Have Followers and They Really Mean It [Article].

Yes, it’s true; a fringe minister with just fifty followers in America wanted to burn a Koran. But he didn’t. Meanwhile another nut wants to kill all Jews, wipe Israel off the map, destroy the United States, eliminate all Christians, indoctrinate children into being suicide bombers, and carry out a revolutionary war of terrorism for decades no matter how many die and how much destruction occurs.

Oh, and by the way, he and his colleagues have several hundred thousand followers and are ruling what amounts to an independent state bordering on the Mediterranean.

When you study the Middle East seriously you get used to this kind of rhetoric, yet somehow the seriousness and importance of such talk doesn’t seem to register with many Western government officials, journalists, and academics who explain away these movements and regimes as somehow rational and moderate.

Maybe that’s because when you look at the situation honestly it’s really rather scary. Another word for finding something scary is to have a “phobia” toward it.

So it wasn’t some silly, obscure guy who said this but…well, please wait just one more paragraph to find out.

In the speech, this fellow said that it was really great to be a martyr for Islamic revolution because there are 2.5 million black-eyed virgins waiting at the gates of a palace–just one, so presumably there are more–in the Garden of Eden just waiting for them. You do the math: 500 gates, 5,000 virgins per gate.

Who said this? Ahmad Bahr, a Hamas leader and speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council. In other words, he’s the Palestinian equivalent of Nancy Pelosi.

Bahr and his colleagues aren’t just joking; they aren’t just telling tall tales to titillate the yokels. Nor are they making this stuff up, since Bahr is quoting one of Muhammad’s chief lieutenants and a caliph in his own right. This speech was broadcast on al-Aqsa television on September 5, 2010. It was intended to mobilize the masses to go out and die for Hamas and the Islamic revolution. So presumably a good number of Palestinians take this seriously, too.

Now how is this plan going to be implemented? Basically, Bahr said that every Muslim should have a lot of sons and train them to be terrorists and hence martyrs. He concluded:

“If this is the culture of the nation today, who will be able to stop it?…As long as we continue on this path, nobody on Earth will be able to confront the resistance, or to confront the mujahideen, those who worship Allah and seek martyrdom.”

So it doesn’t matter how hopeless the odds seem, how many will die, how much suffering will take place. Peace is not more attractive than war; having a nice future for your children is not the top priority. Goals are not set by a cost/benefit analysis but on the basis that the creator of the universe is calling the shots, insists on this path, and will ensure its victory.

OK, you say, but maybe Bahr just hates Israel and would be satisfied if it is wiped out and then the struggle would end? Nope. Maybe he just wants an independent Palestinian state and then will leave everyone else alone? Again, nope.

Here’s what he said in 2007 in a speech broadcast on Sudan television:

“‘You will be victorious’ on the face of this planet. You are the masters of the world on the face of this planet. Yes, [the Koran says that] ‘you will be victorious,’ but only ‘if you are believers.’ Allah willing, ‘you will be victorious,’ while America and Israel will be annihilated, Allah willing. I guarantee you that the power of belief and faith is greater than the power of America and Israel. They are cowards, as is said in the Book of Allah: ‘You shall find them the people most eager to protect their lives.’ They are cowards, who are eager for life, while we are eager for death for the sake of Allah. That is why America’s nose was rubbed in the mud in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Somalia, and everywhere….

“America will be annihilated, while Islam will remain. The Muslims ‘will be victorious, if you are believers.’ Oh Muslims, I guarantee you that the power of Allah is greater than America, by whom many are blinded today. Some people are blinded by the power of America. We say to them that with the might of Allah, with the might of His Messenger, and with the power of Allah, we are stronger than America and Israel.”

Again, this is one of Hamas’s top leaders, and others in the leadership–not to mention their Iranian, Hizballah, and Syrian allies–have said similar things. This is not a joke. Middle East: This is your life!

Do you mind if I’m perfectly frank with you? I suspect that deep down most Westerners think people like Bahr are as corrupt and hypocritical as an Upper-West-Side-of-Manhattan progressive thinks is true for a Southern televangelist. They probably expect Bahr steps out of the pulpit then goes to a bar for a scotch and a ham sandwich.

If they would only apply to Bahr–whose extremism they tend to ignore, feel overrated, or can easily be turned into moderation–the same standards as they do to Christian Pentecostals–who they despise without tolerance–that would be one step in the right direction. Then keep going, adding on that, unlike Christian “fundamentalists” in America, revolutionary Islamists have murdered tens of thousands of people and want to kill many more; unlike those Christians they command thousands of armed soldiers; unlike those Christians they will kill anyone who changes to another religion or who doesn’t behave as they want; and, too, their program is to seize state power, establish totalitarian states, and attack other countries.

No, Bahr isn’t just speaking for effect. He’s dead serious, and that expression isn’t chosen by accident, betting his life on his cause while much of the Western elite trembles at merely being unfashionable. And what Bahr says and believes word-for-word also applies to Hizballah; the Egyptian and Jordanian Muslim Brothers; Iran’s regime; the Taliban; Islamists in areas of Russia; Islamists in Indonesia and Pakistan; clerics in Syria and many other countries; and is heard in certain meetings and mosques throughout Europe and North America.

By no means all Muslims, or even most, but a heck of a lot do talk like Bahr. Not a very small minority of believers; a very big minority of believers. And if they are not stopped they will be the majority of believers and the rulers of multiple countries.

Given the number of martyrs that have been and are going to be generated, there’s going to be a need for all 2.5 million of those virgins Bahr mentions. Actually, that won’t be enough because at 99 per (male) martyr that’s only enough for about 25,000.

Very few Muslims are publicly making fun of such statements or battling against them, though many are fighting the Islamists on political grounds.

Doesn’t all of this matter a bit? Shouldn’t this be something people in the West know about, the mass media cover fully? Mightn’t this kind of talk and thinking convey something of why nobody should try to bring Hamas or similar groups into the diplomatic process, give it aid, or help it in any way? Isn’t this a bigger threat than some marginal haters of everything Muslim who just aren’t going to become martyrs? In the face of this threat should people be demonized and intimidated if they dare talk about it?

I can’t imagine why there should be any doubt about the answers to these questions.

Jerusalem Issue Briefs-New Developments in Iran’s Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East.

Click here to down the powerpoint presentation that accompanied the briefing.

• Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievements. The Iranians have upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite launchers. To orbit a satellite is a highly sophisticated endeavor. It requires proficiency in stage separation and advanced guidance and control systems to insert the satellite into a stable, desired trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended it a bit, added a new lightweight second stage, and now they have the Safir space launch vehicle. The very capability to build a two-stage satellite launcher, rather than the usual three-stage rockets for space-lift vehicles, is quit remarkable by itself – an impressive engineering achievement.

• In spite of the Missile Technology Control Regime and in the face of sanctions, Iran has succeeded in acquiring the needed infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and engineers backed by academic research institutes. Iranian missile technology now seems to be more advanced than that of North Korea.

• The solid-propellant Sejil missile signifies a technological and strategic breakthrough. This missile already poses a threat to a number of European Union countries. Based on its demonstrated achievements in solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejil into a compact, survivable intermediate-range ballistic missile. A range of 3,600 km. will be sufficient to put most of the EU under threat.

• Contrary to a recent report by U.S. and Russian scientists published by the EastWest Institute in Washington, D.C., the solid-propellant technology demonstrated by the Sejil gives the Iranian a key for longer-range missiles that could be deployed in a survivable manner from Western Iran. The report claims that it will take the Iranians just six years to develop a nuclear warhead that could be carried by a ballistic missile. By that time the Iranians might already have the appropriate missiles to carry such warheads. The West would do well to start preparing its defenses right now.

Iran Invests in Nuclear and Missile Technology

The cumulative weight of Iranian missile development achievements in the last two years puts Iran’s programs into a context which might be wider than the Middle East. Up to now, the Iranian programs could fit only a local scenario. However, recent developments may show not necessarily the intention but at least the capability of the Iranians to extend their missile program to potential targets beyond the Middle East.

The Iranians love to show their hardware in parades. They have two armed forces: the army and the Pasdaran, the Revolutionary Guard. The army holds its parade on April 22 every year, while the Pasdaran holds its parade in December. During the big parade the army held in 2008, they displayed guns and artillery, all of which had been purchased before 1979 during the time of the Shah. They showed a modern tank that they make in small numbers, but most were Soviet T55s, a tank from the 1950s. Obviously they are not investing much money in ground forces or in new armament.

During the air show, some 220 planes flew above Tehran, but, again, they were F5s made in America and bought during the Shah’s time, Mirage F1s, and Iraqi aircraft which were flown to Iran during the Gulf War. There were F4 Phantoms, F14 Tomcats, and MIG 21s. The most modern fighter aircraft they flew was a MIG 29 from 1992.

So we see that the money is not being invested in the ground forces or in the air force. Where is the money going? It goes into nuclear technologies and missiles. They can make all the excuses in the world that everything is for peaceful purposes, but the fact is that Iran’s biggest budgets are going to nuclear technology and missile technology.

Iran’s Engineers Become More Advanced than North Koreans

In 1988 the Iranians had only Scud B and Scud C missiles. Ten years later they had their first operational Shahab III. The Iranians bought the Shahab, which has a range of 1,300 km., from North Korea, including the production line. We now see the Iranians building underground silos for the Shahab, to make it more survivable.

The Iranians are also now capable of taking an unguided rocket like the Zalzal – that Hizbullah also has – and turning it into a guided rocket with a range of 200 kilometers. This is an original Iranian project; we don’t see it anywhere else.

They have also upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite launchers. To orbit a satellite is a very complicated project. There are missile stages, and a careful guidance and control system to insert the satellite into a stable, desired trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended it a bit, added more propellant, and now they have the Safir space launch vehicle. They launched it twice and the second time it was successful; for a while they had a test satellite in orbit. They built a two-stage satellite launcher with a very elegant upper stage, incomparable to anything we know – an impressive engineering achievement.

Up to now, North Korea has been the fountainhead of technology to Iran. In the 1990s and the early 2000s we saw the North Korean No-dong missile appearing in Iran, as well as the Shahab II and Shahab III, which in North Korea are called the Wassong V and Wassong VI. The Scud is a North Korean invention which was also exported to Iran. But looking at April’s North Korean satellite launch attempt, they used a satellite launcher that looks nothing like what we see in Iran. It was completely different, much bigger and heavier, and with three stages.

This means that the connection between Iranian and North Korean technology is not that tight anymore, and the pupils are now the teachers. The Iranians have reached a level of proficiency which has disconnected them from North Korea and in some cases they are more advanced than the North Koreans. The Iranians are now going to deploy a missile which is nothing like what the North Koreans have, so a connection may now be the other way around. Start watching Iran not as a market for North Korean merchandise but as an exporter of Iranian missile technologies.

Iranian Breakthrough: A Solid Fuel Missile

On May 19, 2009, the EastWest Institute issued a report entitled Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Potential: A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and Russian Technical Experts, claiming that “There is no reliable information at the present on the state of Iran’s efforts to develop solid propellant rocket motors.” The next day, on May 20, the Iranians successfully fired a solid fuel Sejil rocket. Solid propellant leaves a trail of particles behind, while liquid propellant has transparent flames that don’t leave any trail, so video reports of the launch are quite revealing.

What is also impressive here is the pace of development. In 2005 we heard for the first time about the coming of the Sejil. The first flight occurred thirty months after the end of development of the solid propellant motors. Iran’s space program is even more impressive.

They have the engineers to understand what they are doing. They have the system engineers to engineer fixes and they have the program managers to run the whole program. They have demonstrated the ability to manufacture a 14-ton solid propellant rocket motor, and they have the infrastructure they need. To build such a rocket you need big, expensive installations. They are not available for sale, they are controlled by the Missile Technology Control Regime, but Iran has managed to acquire them. All of this infrastructure is in Iran. Another point on the proficiency of their engineers: I received a list of Iranian technical publications from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, all of them dealing with big solid propellant rocket motors.

The Iranians conducted six major tests of multi-stage missiles in eighteen months by two different teams from two different test ranges with all the instrumentation and flight control guidance system telemetry. When there is a challenge, they overcome the challenge.

Europe Coming into Iranian Missile Range

The Iranian defense minister has spoken of two missiles: the Kadr I that goes 2,000 km. and the Sejil that goes more than 2,000 km. Why is 2,000 km. significant? Less than 2,000 km. does not threaten Europe. Beyond that you are starting to threaten Europe.

Two weeks after the EastWest Institute report came out, Ted Postol of MIT, one of its authors, published an addendum to the report. Based on data he presented, our calculations show that the Sejil has an actual range of about 2,500 km. Such a range could reach Warsaw and, indeed, six European Union countries: Poland, Slovakia, Rumania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Greece. The Tabriz launch area in Iran is as big as Azerbeijan, bigger than Israel and half of Jordan. It’s about 50,000 sq. km., full of mountains, valleys, and canyons. You can hide thousands of ballistic missiles there with a very high probability of survival. So the capability to make a survivable missile that can threaten Europe now exists in Iran.

Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile programs and a space program at a feverish rate. No one else, except the Chinese perhaps, is working at such a speed. In spite of all the sanctions, the Iranians have managed to acquire all the needed infrastructure to make advanced missiles and develop a technology cadre. They are building up technological universities. They have been in the business for twenty years.

The solid propellant Sejil is the watershed breakthrough. The Iranians have the technology right now to produce an intermediate range ballistic missile that can threaten Europe. Whether they do it or not involves the question of intention, but they are capable of doing it. The EastWest Institute report estimates that it will take Iran about six years to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile. If this is true, then the time to start missile defense in Europe is now. The fact that the Iranians are building that capability is something that should be brought to public view.

The distance from Iran to Israel remains the same no matter what missiles the Iranians develop. From an Israeli anti-missile defense perspective, the threat remains more or less the same, whether it’s a Shahab III or a Sejil. But while the implications of Iran’s continued missile development are not so great from an Israeli point of view, they may be quite significant for those who live beyond the Middle East.

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Uzi Rubin has been involved in Israeli military research, development, and engineering programs for almost forty years. Between 1991 and 1999 he served as head of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization, and in that capacity he oversaw the development of Israel’s Arrow anti-missile defense system. He was awarded the Israel Defense Prize in 1996. This Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on his presentation to the Institute for Contemporary Affairs in Jerusalem on August 6, 2009.