Archive for June 11, 2010

U.S. must support Israel unequivocally

June 11, 2010

YOUR VIEW: U.S. must support Israel unequivocally | SouthCoastToday.com.

It is time to get real. We need to work with and protect our friends and recognize our enemies for what they are and deal with them realistically. Israel is the lone democracy in the Middle East. Israel has been our only steadfast ally in the region since its birth 62 years ago. Compare Israel’s government with all the others in the region and you readily understand that it is the only one that shares and acts on our values.

David Ehrens’ recent essay in this newspaper (“Tough love for Israel,” June 3) recommends that the United States end financial aid to Israel to control it. Would the author have us give the money to Iran to pay for its nuclear weapons? Or perhaps to Hizbollah in southern Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, so they can build greater arsenals? Or perhaps to Syria, so that it can rebuild the nuclear reactor that North Korea was building for it?

We need to accept the fact that Islamist states will never be friends to Western countries. They are at war with our culture and religion. Osama bin Laden cared not one little bit about the Palestinians when he planned his attack on the Twin Towers, the Pentagon, and the White House or the Capitol. The Islamists and especially Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, like Hitler, use anti-Semitism and anti-Israeli sentiment to cynically increase their power. Israel is trying to defend itself in an increasingly perilous environment.

Although the blockade is an effective way to prevent smuggling of arms to Hamas, which is sworn to destroy Israel, this is not about the blockade. It is about a much larger war. Our enemies regard Israel as our proxy, so a blow against Israel is a blow against us. For the United States to do anything but express unequivocal support for Israel’s security invites aggression which would be bad for the United States as well as Israel.

North Korea has two nuclear weapons now. Recently, it sank a South Korean navy vessel, the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. No response. South Korea was paralyzed by the nukes. The International Atomic Energy Agency announced last week that Iran now has enough fuel for two nuclear bombs which can be built in several months. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, the world will change overnight.

We saw last week that Turkey, for years an ally of both the United States and Israel, has already been turned. It is in fear of Iran. Syria and Lebanon are already under Iranian control, and it is having a major influence in Iraq. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are rightly terrified.

This week the president signed a United Nations agreement ultimately requiring Israel to give up its nuclear defense under the guise of a “nuclear-free Middle East.” Last Friday’s White House statement against the Israeli blockade will increase, not reduce, the risk of violence. These steps and others signal American ambivalence and tend to create the impression that this president might not aid Israel if it is attacked.

What would North Korea do if we withdrew our 20,000 troops from South Korea? Iraq invaded Kuwait when our ambassador to Iraq on the instructions of the president equivocated when Saddam Hussein asked her whether we would respond if he invaded. An unequivocal statement guaranteeing Kuwait’s territorial integrity probably would have averted that war and spared thousands of lives. The president needs to do the equivalent, right now.

Yet this administration has been going in the opposite direction in this treacherous terrain. No good will come of it. It is a recipe for another very dangerous war in the Middle East. As soon as Israel concludes that the United States can or will not prevent Iran from building nuclear bombs, Israel will make an existential decision whether to attack Iran. It may opt for a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear program, as it has in Iraq and Syria for emotional as well as strategic reasons.

Israel has a deep and enduring collective memory of the Holocaust. It will not go quietly to the nuclear ovens repeatedly promised (even this week) by Ahmadinejad. We need to get realistic and learn from the past. The mistakes of Neville Chamberlain and their devastating consequences need to inform this debate.

The decision of the United States and South Korea to do nothing in response to the sinking of the Cheonan was an invitation to aggression by Iran. North Korea acted with impunity because of its new nuclear umbrella. Iran is close to opening its own umbrella.

We must act very soon or suffer dire consequences flowing from the reality of a nuclear checkmate in the Middle East as well as the Korean Peninsula. The mixed messages of the Obama administration are very dangerous indeed.

Major new development in Flotilla story? :: Weekly Blitz

June 11, 2010

Major new development in Flotilla story? :: Weekly Blitz.

I’ve written about how the Gaza flotilla issue and stirring up a hysterical hatred of Israel is playing a role in internal Turkish politics as the government tries to use this demagoguery to continue eroding Turkish democracy and to win the next election. And a little later I’m going to talk about a major new development in the flotilla story.

In addition, while Turks are united in anger and sorrow about the deaths of nine of their citizens, they do not necessarily agree with the current government’s extremist response which threatens to lead to involving Turkey in violence and damaging its reputation abroad.

The leader of the main opposition, Ataturkist and social democratic party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu stated that Prime Minister Erdogan, “Almost declared war against Israel in his party’s meeting….Our party displays a more moderate and careful approach. Foreign policy can’t be carried out with heroism but with reason. The Turkish Foreign Ministry should publicly disclose correspondence made with Israel so that we may all learn whether Israel warned Turkey or not.”

Now you might ask yourself what is Kilicdaroglu hinting at here? And the answer is important and potentially explosive. There is a widespread story, which cannot yet be verified but seems to be more than a rumor, for why this tragedy might have happened. People ask: Why did the Israeli soldiers land on a ship where they should have expected to be received with a violent attack?

According to some people who are in a position to know, here’s the reason: Erdogan assured Israel that the ship’s passengers were peaceful and there would be no violence. That’s why Israel approached taking and diverting the ship in the manner it did. Is this true? I don’t know but it is definitely a story to watch. And here–the important development I referred to above–is the most detailed account yet of the connection between the Turkish government and the IHH, a group with terrorist connections which organized the flotilla and initiated the violence. Don’t fail to check out this source, which I’ve found to be very reliable over the years.

It is understandable, especially given what they’ve been told by their government and media, that Turks are very upset about the deaths. Yet it is important to understand that there are different views in Turkey over how to handle this problem. The government wants a confrontation and has been moving into an alliance with Iran and Syria long before the latest events. The opposition wants to uphold Turkish honor but not to break with the West or turn this into a near-war situation with Israel.

Here’s an interesting example.

Erdogan said that Israel’s peaceful seizure of five boats and its self-defense on the sixth (you can imagine, these aren’t his words) was against Judaism, a subject on which he purports to be an expert.

Kilicdaroglu, responded:

Erdoganknows the Torah; we thank him. What does its sixth commandment say? Do not kill! But the holy book also has an eighth commandment, which says ‘Do not steal.’ And the ninth commandment says ‘Do not lie.'”

Kilicdaroglu has built his career on fighting the current government’s corruption and presumably will make a major election theme.

Erdogan responded by accusing the leader of the opposition of being an apologist for Israel, saying among other things,: “He is acting like Tel Aviv’s lawyer.” The attempt is to paint the opposition leader as a flunky of the hated state, another step in the regime’s effort to transform Turkish politics into something more closely resembling those of Egypt, Syria, or Iran.

Flotilla was a Jihadist Attack not a “Humanitarian Operation”

June 11, 2010

Flotilla was a Jihadist Attack not a \.

by Barry Rubin
June 11, 2010

Bülent Yildirim, the main organizer of the Gaza Flotilla, explained at a Hamas rally in Gaza that the operation was no humanitarian effort but part of a global Jihad to overthrow governments and install Islamist dictatorships. He made no secret of that fact, as shown in the MEMRI translation and video.

Keep in mind as you read this that his group originated the project and was the main funder, that his followers controlled the biggest ship, and that they were most of those who attacked the Israeli soldiers. Thus, more than any other individual, Yildirim represents the thinking behind the operation, its direction, and the organization of a militarized group that started the violence in order to achieve the intended result. Notice, too, that he–and thus the organizers of the operation and those who created the violence–are totally indifferent to the loss of life they cause.

“My brothers,” he begins, “I have brought you the blessings of Saladin and Sultan Abd Al-Hamid. There are 70 million Sultan Abd Al-Hamids in Turkey, and they all support you. We congratulate you on your victory.”

Saladin, of course, defeated the Crusaders and destroyed their kingdoms, an analogy often drawn about Israel by Jihadists. Sultan Abd al-Hamid was the last of the Ottoman Empire’s Islamic-oriented rulers. He thus represents what Yildirim sees as an Islamist Turkish state. He was also a caliph, that is, the leader of the Muslim world as successor to Muhammad. Many Islamists want to reestablish the caliphate, a single Muslim ruler over the whole Muslim-majority world (or even the whole world period). The Turkish Islamists hate Kemal Ataturk for establishing a republic and ending the caliphate (along with the Young Turk secularists).

Their goal is not to succor the people of Gaza but to wipe out Israel and kill the Jews as “rightful” (his words, not mine) successors to Muhammad in continuing this task:

“Three to four years ago, some claimed that Hamas was a terrorist organization. When the Jews would kill our women and children, they would say: ‘Muhammad died and left only daughters.’ We are here, in Turkey, in Egypt, Syria, and everywhere, and our daughters and our boys can also defeat you.”

From this point it is interesting how the Arabic translator misstates what Yildirim actually says:

Arabic Translator: “We are here, in Egypt, in Sudan, in Syria, in Turkey, and everywhere. Our women, our children, and our men support you.”

Remember, Yildirim is explicitly talking only about Turks (though he does mean all Muslims also) but the translator turns it into a more Arab-oriented statement by mentioning three specific Arab countries. It’s a subtle sign of how even Arab Islamists don’t quite feel comfortable with the non-Arab Turks.

Bülent Yildirim: “Allah Akbar. Allah be praised. Allah Akbar. Allah be praised. Allah Akbar. Allah be praised. They have bombs, nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, but we have our hearts, we have our courage, and we are not afraid of anyone but Allah.”

This is the typical Islamist trope: they are stronger but we court martyrdom and we have the deity on our side. Of course, it is always better if the other side is never allowed to use its weapons in self-defense because that is deemed illegitimate and your Jihad is interpreted as a peaceful humanitarian effort by those who don’t listen to what you are actually saying.

Arabic Translator: “They have used their nuclear and chemical weapons, and all their weapons, but all we have, after Allah, are our courageous hearts and our men.”

Note the difference. Yildrim only says they have the weapons, but Hamas-in its decidedly non-moderate way-says these weapons have been used. I hesitate to say it but it is by no means impossible that in many places there will soon be claims that the Israeli soldiers used chemical weapons on the ship. Oh, yes, that claim has already surfaced in non-Muslim Portugal.

Bülent Yildirim: “Let me tell you that if it were not for the ceasefire, Istanbul, Ankara, Diyarbakir, and all of Turkey would be in Gaza.”

The ceasefire is that between Hamas and Israel. In other words, if the fighting renews, all Turks would go and fight for Hamas. This is not realistic, of course, but is a sign that Yildirim views the issue as a war of extermination against Israel. And, by the way, if he is advocating war this shows he puts Jihad and battle over the humanitarian well-being of Gazans. How many Gazans would be killed in that war? And what would those casualties be in terms of suffering compared to the delivery of outdated medicines and various other goods in the ships?

Yildirim continues by saying that if Allah so wills there will be no more embargo. This would mean, of course, that Hamas could get all the arms and military equipment it wants. Notice he doesn’t call for an easing of the embargo just to let in humanitarian needs and consumer goods. But wait! If Hamas spends the money on arms then that will reduce the living standards of Gazans!

So Yildirim, like Hamas, tells the people of Gaza: Don’t moderate! Don’t make peace with your neighbors! Fight the Jihad and be a martyr! Raise your children to be suicide bombers! And if the embargo is reduced and Western countries cozy up to Hamas there is good news and bad news.

The good news is that Gazans may get more consumer goods.

The bad news is that for the rest of their lives they will be forced to fight an endless war, suffer huge casualties, undergo material deprivations, lose their children to either mindless extremism or death, and live under an oppressive regime that will repress any freedom and turn women into chattel.

How humanitarian is that?

Then Yildirim threatens to overthrow any government that doesn’t support Hamas. Think of how the Egyptians, Saudis, and other governments feel about that:

Bülent Yildirim: “From here, I call upon all the leaders of the Islamic world, and upon all the peoples… Anyone who does not stand alongside Palestine – his throne will be toppled.”

Yildirim does not see the Western outpouring of criticism against Israel as increasing humanitarian sentiments but as a step toward Islamist revolution and the takeover of more countries:

Bülent Yildirim: “Last night, everything in the world has changed, and everything is progressing towards Islam. All the peoples of the Islamic world would want a leader like Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”

Here is a direct pledge of allegiance to Turkey’s prime minister, the man behind the operation. So if Yildirim is a revolutionary Islamist who wants to destroy Israel, favors Jihad, and threatens moderate Arab regimes does that mean Erdogan, that model of a “moderate” Muslim “democrat” agree? Would he dissociate himself from Yildrim’s remarks?

Of course not.

Bülent Yildirim: “In conclusion, let me tell you, oh my Palestinian brothers, who are guarded by Allah and the angels – I wish we could take you away from here to Istanbul, and bring Istanbul here to be hit by the bombs instead of you.”

I wonder how the people of Istanbul generally feel about that wish? But if Erdogan continues with his adventurist, pro-Jihadist policies of alliance with Iran and Syria, who knows how much violence, instability, and suffering it will bring to the Turkish people? And that’s not a threat, it is a genuine fear for the well-being of a Turkish nation in the grip of such mad men and their patrons.

And if you have any doubt left about the nature of these “peace activists” and “humanitarians” just watch thisin which the ship tells Israelis to go back to Auschwitz, remember September 11, and the operation’s goal is to hurt the United States.

Iran & Turkey are the actual threat to the Arabs


June 11, 2010

Iran.

By Elias Bejjani Friday, June 11, 2010

Mr. Erdogan cunningly and with malice endeavored to portray himself and his country as guardians for the Palestinian liberation cause

In his recent rhetorical salvo with the State of Israel in the aftermath of the maritime Flotilla confrontation, Turkish Prime Minister, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has proved par excellence his supremacy over Iranian and Arab leaders and their intelligence and media linguistic experts in the venomous usage of fabricated, misleading, camouflaged, deceptive and demagogical slogans. In his theatrical, emotional, religious speeches and statements, he appealed to the Islamic world, Arabs and Palestinians, and evilly resorted to all tactics and strategies of bragging, hatred, stirring of instincts, fundamentalism and hostilities.


In his hysterical anti-Israel rampage he did not only viciously attack Israel and defend the Palestinians, but he also boldly and stupidly humiliated and insulted the Arabs when he said in one of his fiery bragging statements: “Israel must know that Turkey is not like other countries, and definitely not a tribe”. What he was saying loudly and clearly is that he is not an Arab, but Turkish and Turkey is not like the Arab countries”.
Mr. Erdogan cunningly and with malice endeavored to portray himself and his country as guardians for the Palestinian liberation cause and as holy angels whom heaven has sent to work on lifting the sea blockade imposed by Israel on the Gaza strip.

What the whole world, and specially the Arabs, should know is that the Turkish government does not actually care about the Palestinians or about their cause, and historically Turkey never did. Erdogan and his government are trying to sell the Arab countries and people mere rhetorical merchandise that the Arabs sadly emotionally and religiously cherish.

This recent aggressive Turkish rhetorical maneuvers have been taking place through a forged theatrical show of hostilities and hatred against Israel and a deceitful support to the Palestinian cause. It is just an empty rhetoric that the Turks are smartly abusing as a vehicle to get into the Arab countries and have more power as a pretext to their expansion, hegemony and covert ploys for domination.

The Turks cannot deliver anything that they are offering, advocating for or bragging about. Their rhetoric is void of any actual context and has no credibility at all. Meanwhile, Iran has been playing the same game and using the same rhetoric, but also combined with force and terrorism through its two armed proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Both Iran and Turkey share the same anti-Arab and anti-Israel schemes of expansionism and a persistent quest for power and domination.  They are fighting their battles through different means and ways to gain more power and more control in the Arab countries and have a piece of the Arab oil cake.

Both countries believe that the USA is now weak and will get weaker after withdrawing from Iraq and that its withdrawal will leave a power vacuum in the region which both countries are working on very hard to fill. They are using the Israeli hostility tag and the bogus support for the Palestinians as a camouflage for their vicious schemes. Sadly, the Arabs love and cherish these two tags and have a weak spot for them.

In reality and actuality, both Iran and Turkey, and not Israel, have become the actual and lethal threat to the Arab countries and their natural resources, particularly the oil.

They are the real enemies that the Arab countries, especially the Arabian Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, should focus on seriously and work united to face and deter with no hesitation, dhimmitude or fear whatsoever.

Ironically, the moderate Arab countries are not yet openly standing together to stop and abort the Iranian and Turkish invasion attempts. Unless these countries unite, declare their intentions of confrontation and take all measures required for the confrontation, Iran and Turkey will gradually conquer their countries and resurrect both the dead Ottoman and the Persian empires.

So called “Freedom Fleet” was a mere jihadist mission and not a mission of peace

The whole world by now knows for a fact that the so called “Freedom Fleet” was a mere jihadist mission and not a mission of peace. It was fully orchestrated jointly by Turkey and Iran in a bid to serve their anti-Arab and anti-Israel plots and plans. Both countries couldn’t care less about the Palestinians and about their cause, but they are deviously abusing them as a mere vehicle of deception and camouflage.

Unfortunately, the Arabs love day dreaming and imaginary heroism.  Without a doubt, the Flotilla confrontation played on the Arabs’ wishful thinking and blurred their vision to see the actual hidden Turkish and Iranian agenda of hostility and expansionism.

Turkey’s deceitful Flotilla propaganda escapade was successful in selling the Arabs and fanatical Muslims a false grandiose feeling of heroism, while Iran was successful at the same time in temporarily diverting the world focus away from its nuclear activities.

In conclusion, Iran and Turkey, and not Israel, are the actual threat to the Arab countries. The time has come for all free world countries, especially the US Obamaadministration, Arab world, and Europe to start speaking to the rogue countries and organizations, including Turkey, using the only language that they know and understand, the language of strength and force. All other means are futile and a complete – and an existentially dangerous- waste of time.

Too little, very late

June 11, 2010

Too little, very late.


Parody of sanctions makes laughingstock of world.

The full half of the glass is that the international community has finally united to impose further sanctions on Iran. The empty half is that the package approved by the UN Security Council does not remotely constitute the crippling sanctions which might just have exerted a sobering effect on Teheran as it proceeds toward a nuclear weapons capability.

The sanctions voted through on Wednesday lack the bite of the package that was initially proposed. They were watered down, over protracted negotiations, to enlist the support of reluctant powers like Russia and China, with the goal of thereby creating the semblance of an international consensus. But what Moscow and Beijing proved willing to swallow is so diluted a package that Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad must be chuckling to himself, despite his outward show of sound and fury.

Primarily lacking from the sanctions concoction is anything that will impact Iran’s energy industry, when what was most critically needed was a ban on the export to Iran of refined petroleum products. Although Iran is one of the world’s prime sources of crude oil, it has never developed the adequate capacity to process its abundant black gold. Hence Iran is heavily dependent on foreign supplies. The prohibition of such supplies could dramatically weaken the ayatollahs’ regime, since it would directly impact the citizenry and would likely trigger a popular backlash. Three years ago, gas stations throughout Iran were set alight by angry protesters rioting against price hikes at the pump.

Sanctions-generated fuel shortages would have meant deactivated vehicles, electricity blackouts, industrial and commercial paralysis. That would have sent a potent message that the world means business when it comes to thwarting Teheran’s nuclear ambitions.

A parody of sanctions, by contrast, makes a laughingstock of the international community. The best hope now is that the US and EU will quickly impose tougher sanctions of their own.

EVEN THE deficient sanctions that were approved at the UN aren’t likely to be stringently enforced.

If we ignore the predilection of some private concerns in the free world to keep trading with Iran regardless of its incitement and its aggression, we may assume that most of the West – i.e. the US and EU – will adhere to the new strictures and that whatever violations come to the fore will be dealt with.

Elsewhere, however, reluctant sanctions-backers like Russia and China are less likely to religiously abide by them. The situation in the radical segments of South America, where Ahmedinejad enjoys an incongruous following, is worse still, as it is throughout much of Asia, particularly the Muslim components. Worst of all are Iran’s allies in this region, beginning with Syria and its Lebanese puppet and reaching all the way to transformed Turkey (which voted against Wednesday’s package, along with Brazil, while Lebanon abstained).

Breaking and evading these sanctions ought to be a breeze for Ahmedinejad. A full year after Iran’s deceptive elections, which spurred countrywide demonstrations, he may be less popular but his position is stable. After the regime brutally quashed his opposition, it is very doubtful that stunted sanctions will destabilize his hold on power.

None of that will moderate his vehement anti-sanctions rhetoric. Ahmedinejad is putting on an extravagant spectacle of anger and outrage. Domestically, he derives much psychological benefit from appearing like the beleaguered patriotic warrior, facing off against the Zionist-lackey West.

Today’s resourceful and emboldened Iran is a very different entity from the pariah state
it was just a year ago, when credible sanctions would have been far more effective. Teheran has shielded its crucial interests from financial restrictions and its newly bolstered alliances may be valuable in deflecting pressure. The international community missed its best opportunity to apply economic pressure during 2009’s post-election unrest. In the interim, Iran has contracted game-changing deals and made strides toward self-sufficiency.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may speak of Wednesday’s package representing “the most significant sanctions that Iran has ever faced.” But Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been warning against “excessive” measures lest they cause “hardship” in Iran. The subtext is that Russian and Chinese commerce with Iran will proceed all but unhindered.

Wednesday’s sanctions, then, are not the antidote to the Iranian nuclear threat that Israel had hoped for and that the free world so badly needs.

In some ways, they may even exacerbate Israel’s predicament. They will lend the appearance of an international mobilization to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, but in actuality will achieve nothing – the worst of all worlds.

The first rule of strategy

June 11, 2010

via Column One: The first rule of strategy.


Israel’s leaders get bogged down in details while Iran plays distraction game.

The first rule of strategy is to keep your opponent busy attending to your agenda so he has no time to advance his own. Unfortunately, Israel’s leaders seem unaware of this rule, while Iran’s rulers triumph in its application.

Over the past few weeks, Israel has devoted itself entirely to the consideration of questions that are, at best, secondary. Questions like how much additional assistance Israel should provide Hamas-controlled Gaza, and how best to fend off or surrender to the international diplomatic lynch mob have dominated Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s and his senior ministers’ agendas. Our political leaders – as well as our military commanders and intelligence agencies – have been so busy thinking about these issues that they have effectively forgotten the one issue that they should have been considering.

Israel’s greatest strategic challenge – preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons – has fallen by the wayside.

In the shadow of our distraction, Iran and its allies operate undisturbed. Indeed, as our leaders have devoted themselves entirely to controlling the damage from the Iranian-supported, Turkish- Hamas flotilla, Iran and its allies have had a terrific past few weeks.

True, Wednesday the UN Security Council passed a new sanctions resolution against Iran for refusing to end its illicit uranium enrichment program. But that Security Council resolution itself is emblematic of Iran’s triumph.

It took a year for US President Barack Obama to decide that he should seek additional sanctions against Iran. It then took him another six months to convince Iran’s allies Russia and China to support the sanctions. In the event, the sanctions that Obama refers to as “the most comprehensive sanctions that the Iranian government has faced,” will have no impact whatsoever on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

They will not empower the Iranian people to overthrow their regime. And they will not cause the Iranian regime to reconsider its nuclear weapons program. They won’t even prevent Russia from supplying Iran with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to protect its nuclear installations from air assault.

THOSE LONG-awaited and utterly worthless sanctions underline the fact that life is terrific these days for Iran’s leaders and their allies. A year ago, the Iranian regime was hanging by a thread. After stealing the presidential elections last June 12, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his boss Ali Khamenei required the assistance of all their regime goons to put down the popular revolt against them. Indeed, they needed to import Hizbullah goons from Lebanon to protect themselves and their regime from their own people. European leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy were openly supporting the Iranian people as they announced their intention to overthrow the regime.

But then Obama sided with the regime against its domestic, democratic opposition. Intent on giving his appeasement policy a whirl, Obama took several days to express even the mildest support for the Iranian people. In the meantime, his spokesman continued to refer to the regime as the “legitimate” government of Iran.

Obama’s support for Ahmadinejad forced European leaders like Sarkozy to temper their support for the anti-regime activists. Even worse, by keeping the democracy protesters at arm’s length, Obama effectively gave a green light to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei to resort to brute force against them. That is, by failing to back the democracy protesters, Obama convinced the regime it could get away with murdering scores of them, and torturing thousands more.

A year on, although the regime’s opponents seethe under the surface, with no leader and no help from the free world, it will take a miracle for them to mount major protests on the one-year anniversary of the stolen elections. It is unimaginable that they will be able to topple the regime before it gets its hands on nuclear weapons.

A year ago Ahmadinejad was afraid to show his face in public. But this week he received a hero’s welcome in Istanbul. He had a bilateral meeting there not only with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

In the past year Iran has deepened its strategic ties with China and Russia. It has developed an open strategic alliance with Turkey. It has expanded its strategic web of alliances in Latin America. Now in addition to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia, Iran counts Brazil among its allies.

THEN THERE is Lebanon. Like the regime in Teheran, Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hizbullah lost the Lebanese elections last June. And like the regime in Teheran, Hizbullah was able to use force and the threat of force to not only strong-arm its way back into the Lebanese government, but to guarantee itself control over the Lebanese government.

Now in control, with Iranian and Syrian support, Hizbullah has an arsenal of 42,000 missiles with ranges that cover all of Israel.

Then, too, Hizbullah’s diplomatic situation has never been better. This week former US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker called for the US to initiate a policy of diplomatic outreach to the Iranian-controlled illegal terrorist group. Ryan is the second prominent US official, after Obama’s chief counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan, to call for the US to accept Hizbullah as a legitimate actor in the region.

As for Syria, it too has only benefited from its alliance with Iran. The Obama administration has waived several trade sanctions against Damascus.

As it battles the Senate to confirm its choice for US ambassador to Syria, the administration has become the regime’s champion.

Assuming the Senate drops its opposition, Syria will receive the first US ambassador to Damascus in five years as it defies the International Atomic Energy Agency and openly proliferates nuclear technology. Today Syria is both rebuilding its illicit nuclear reactor at Dar Alzour that Israel reportedly destroyed on Sept. 6, 2007 and building additional nuclear installations.

Luckily for Bashar Assad, the IAEA is too busy trying to coerce Israel into agreeing to international inspections of its legal nuclear installations to pay any attention. Since June 2008, the IAEA has carried out no inspections in Syria.

AND THAT’S the heart of the matter. The main reason that the past year has been such a good one for Iran and its allies is because they have managed to keep Israel so busy fending off attacks that Jerusalem has had no time to weaken them in any way.

It is true that much of the fault here belongs to the US. Since entering office, Obama has demonstrated daily that his first priority in the Middle East is to force Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians. As for Iran, Obama’s moves to date make clear that his goal is not to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Rather, it is to avoid being blamed for Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Moreover, Obama has used Iran’s nuclear weapons program – and vague promises to do something about it – as a means of coercing Israel into making unreciprocated concessions to the Palestinians.

The problem is that despite overwhelming evidence that Obama is fundamentally not serious about preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Israel’s leaders have played along with him. And in so doing they have lost control over their time and their agenda.

When Obama first came into office, he was committed to three things: appeasing Iran, attacking Israel for constructing homes for Jews in Judea and Samaria, and condemning Israel for refusing to support the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Obama was only partially dissuaded from appeasing Iran when Ahmadinejad rejected his offer to enrich uranium for the mullahs last December. As for his other goals, he coerced Netanyahu into agreeing to support Palestinian statehood last June and coerced him into ending Jewish home building in Judea and Samaria last September.

Ahmadinejad’s rejection of Obama’s outstretched hand forced Obama to launch his halfhearted drive for worthless UN sanctions. But he used this bid to coerce Israel into making still more unreciprocated concessions. After pocketing the prohibition on Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria, Obama moved on to Jerusalem.

From there he moved to forcing Israel to accept indirect negotiations with the Palestinians through his hostile envoy George Mitchell. And once he had pocketed that concession, he began pressuring Israel to surrender its purported nuclear arsenal.

Following that, he has moved on to his current position of pressuring Israel to accept a hostile international investigation of the navy’s enforcement of Israel’s lawful blockade of the Gaza coast. He also seeks to weaken Israel’s blockade of Hamas-controlled Gaza and force Israel to accept a massive infusion of US assistance to Hamas-controlled Gaza.

This last Obama action plan was made explicit on Wednesday when the US president announced that his administration would give $400 million in assistance to Gaza, despite the fact that doing so involves providing material aid to an illegal terrorist organization controlled by Iran.

OBAMA’S ACTIONS are clearly disturbing, but as disturbing as they are, they are not Israel’s main problem. Iran’s nuclear program is Israel’s main problem. And Netanyahu, his senior cabinet ministers and the IDF high command should not be devoting their precious time to dealing with Obama and his ever-escalating demands.

To free himself and Israel’s other key decisionmakers to contend with Iran, Netanyahu must outsource the handling of the Palestinian issue, the Obama administration and all the issues arising from both. He must select someone outside active politics to serve as his special envoy for this purpose.

Netanyahu’s envoy’s position should be the mirror image of Obama’s Middle East envoy George Mitchell’s role. He should be given a suite of fancy offices, several deputies and aides and spokesmen, and a free hand in talking with the Palestinians and the Obama administration until the cows come home.

In the meantime, Netanyahu and his senior cabinet ministers and advisers must devote themselves to battling Iran. They must not merely prepare to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.

They must prepare the country to weather the Iranian counter-attack that will surely follow.

Those preparations involve not only fortifying Israel’s home front. Netanyahu and his people must prepare a diplomatic and legal offensive against Iran and its allies in the lead-up, and aftermath, of an Israeli strike against Iran.

The most obviously qualified person to fill this vital role is former defense minister Moshe Arens.

Aren has the experience, wisdom and gravitas to handle the job. Bereft of all political ambitions, Arens would in no way pose a threat to Netanyahu’s leadership.

Whoever Netanyahu chooses, he must choose quickly. His failure to bear in mind the first law of strategy places Israel in greater and greater peril with each passing day.

The first rule of strategy

June 11, 2010

Column One: The first rule of strategy.


Israel’s leaders get bogged down in details while Iran plays distraction game.

The first rule of strategy is to keep your opponent busy attending to your agenda so he has no time to advance his own. Unfortunately, Israel’s leaders seem unaware of this rule, while Iran’s rulers triumph in its application.

Over the past few weeks, Israel has devoted itself entirely to the consideration of questions that are, at best, secondary. Questions like how much additional assistance Israel should provide Hamas-controlled Gaza, and how best to fend off or surrender to the international diplomatic lynch mob have dominated Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s and his senior ministers’ agendas. Our political leaders – as well as our military commanders and intelligence agencies – have been so busy thinking about these issues that they have effectively forgotten the one issue that they should have been considering.

Israel’s greatest strategic challenge – preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons – has fallen by the wayside.

In the shadow of our distraction, Iran and its allies operate undisturbed. Indeed, as our leaders have devoted themselves entirely to controlling the damage from the Iranian-supported, Turkish- Hamas flotilla, Iran and its allies have had a terrific past few weeks.

True, Wednesday the UN Security Council passed a new sanctions resolution against Iran for refusing to end its illicit uranium enrichment program. But that Security Council resolution itself is emblematic of Iran’s triumph.

It took a year for US President Barack Obama to decide that he should seek additional sanctions against Iran. It then took him another six months to convince Iran’s allies Russia and China to support the sanctions. In the event, the sanctions that Obama refers to as “the most comprehensive sanctions that the Iranian government has faced,” will have no impact whatsoever on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

They will not empower the Iranian people to overthrow their regime. And they will not cause the Iranian regime to reconsider its nuclear weapons program. They won’t even prevent Russia from supplying Iran with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to protect its nuclear installations from air assault.

THOSE LONG-awaited and utterly worthless sanctions underline the fact that life is terrific these days for Iran’s leaders and their allies. A year ago, the Iranian regime was hanging by a thread. After stealing the presidential elections last June 12, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his boss Ali Khamenei required the assistance of all their regime goons to put down the popular revolt against them. Indeed, they needed to import Hizbullah goons from Lebanon to protect themselves and their regime from their own people. European leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy were openly supporting the Iranian people as they announced their intention to overthrow the regime.

But then Obama sided with the regime against its domestic, democratic opposition. Intent on giving his appeasement policy a whirl, Obama took several days to express even the mildest support for the Iranian people. In the meantime, his spokesman continued to refer to the regime as the “legitimate” government of Iran.

Obama’s support for Ahmadinejad forced European leaders like Sarkozy to temper their support for the anti-regime activists. Even worse, by keeping the democracy protesters at arm’s length, Obama effectively gave a green light to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei to resort to brute force against them. That is, by failing to back the democracy protesters, Obama convinced the regime it could get away with murdering scores of them, and torturing thousands more.

A year on, although the regime’s opponents seethe under the surface, with no leader and no help from the free world, it will take a miracle for them to mount major protests on the one-year anniversary of the stolen elections. It is unimaginable that they will be able to topple the regime before it gets its hands on nuclear weapons.

A year ago Ahmadinejad was afraid to show his face in public. But this week he received a hero’s welcome in Istanbul. He had a bilateral meeting there not only with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

In the past year Iran has deepened its strategic ties with China and Russia. It has developed an open strategic alliance with Turkey. It has expanded its strategic web of alliances in Latin America. Now in addition to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia, Iran counts Brazil among its allies.

THEN THERE is Lebanon. Like the regime in Teheran, Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hizbullah lost the Lebanese elections last June. And like the regime in Teheran, Hizbullah was able to use force and the threat of force to not only strong-arm its way back into the Lebanese government, but to guarantee itself control over the Lebanese government.

Now in control, with Iranian and Syrian support, Hizbullah has an arsenal of 42,000 missiles with ranges that cover all of Israel.

Then, too, Hizbullah’s diplomatic situation has never been better. This week former US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker called for the US to initiate a policy of diplomatic outreach to the Iranian-controlled illegal terrorist group. Ryan is the second prominent US official, after Obama’s chief counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan, to call for the US to accept Hizbullah as a legitimate actor in the region.

As for Syria, it too has only benefited from its alliance with Iran. The Obama administration has waived several trade sanctions against Damascus.

As it battles the Senate to confirm its choice for US ambassador to Syria, the administration has become the regime’s champion.

Assuming the Senate drops its opposition, Syria will receive the first US ambassador to Damascus in five years as it defies the International Atomic Energy Agency and openly proliferates nuclear technology. Today Syria is both rebuilding its illicit nuclear reactor at Dar Alzour that Israel reportedly destroyed on Sept. 6, 2007 and building additional nuclear installations.

Luckily for Bashar Assad, the IAEA is too busy trying to coerce Israel into agreeing to international inspections of its legal nuclear installations to pay any attention. Since June 2008, the IAEA has carried out no inspections in Syria.

AND THAT’S the heart of the matter. The main reason that the past year has been such a good one for Iran and its allies is because they have managed to keep Israel so busy fending off attacks that Jerusalem has had no time to weaken them in any way.

It is true that much of the fault here belongs to the US. Since entering office, Obama has demonstrated daily that his first priority in the Middle East is to force Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians. As for Iran, Obama’s moves to date make clear that his goal is not to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Rather, it is to avoid being blamed for Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Moreover, Obama has used Iran’s nuclear weapons program – and vague promises to do something about it – as a means of coercing Israel into making unreciprocated concessions to the Palestinians.

The problem is that despite overwhelming evidence that Obama is fundamentally not serious about preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Israel’s leaders have played along with him. And in so doing they have lost control over their time and their agenda.

When Obama first came into office, he was committed to three things: appeasing Iran, attacking Israel for constructing homes for Jews in Judea and Samaria, and condemning Israel for refusing to support the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Obama was only partially dissuaded from appeasing Iran when Ahmadinejad rejected his offer to enrich uranium for the mullahs last December. As for his other goals, he coerced Netanyahu into agreeing to support Palestinian statehood last June and coerced him into ending Jewish home building in Judea and Samaria last September.

Ahmadinejad’s rejection of Obama’s outstretched hand forced Obama to launch his halfhearted drive for worthless UN sanctions. But he used this bid to coerce Israel into making still more unreciprocated concessions. After pocketing the prohibition on Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria, Obama moved on to Jerusalem.

From there he moved to forcing Israel to accept indirect negotiations with the Palestinians through his hostile envoy George Mitchell. And once he had pocketed that concession, he began pressuring Israel to surrender its purported nuclear arsenal.

Following that, he has moved on to his current position of pressuring Israel to accept a hostile international investigation of the navy’s enforcement of Israel’s lawful blockade of the Gaza coast. He also seeks to weaken Israel’s blockade of Hamas-controlled Gaza and force Israel to accept a massive infusion of US assistance to Hamas-controlled Gaza.

This last Obama action plan was made explicit on Wednesday when the US president announced that his administration would give $400 million in assistance to Gaza, despite the fact that doing so involves providing material aid to an illegal terrorist organization controlled by Iran.

OBAMA’S ACTIONS are clearly disturbing, but as disturbing as they are, they are not Israel’s main problem. Iran’s nuclear program is Israel’s main problem. And Netanyahu, his senior cabinet ministers and the IDF high command should not be devoting their precious time to dealing with Obama and his ever-escalating demands.

To free himself and Israel’s other key decisionmakers to contend with Iran, Netanyahu must outsource the handling of the Palestinian issue, the Obama administration and all the issues arising from both. He must select someone outside active politics to serve as his special envoy for this purpose.

Netanyahu’s envoy’s position should be the mirror image of Obama’s Middle East envoy George Mitchell’s role. He should be given a suite of fancy offices, several deputies and aides and spokesmen, and a free hand in talking with the Palestinians and the Obama administration until the cows come home.

In the meantime, Netanyahu and his senior cabinet ministers and advisers must devote themselves to battling Iran. They must not merely prepare to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.

They must prepare the country to weather the Iranian counter-attack that will surely follow.

Those preparations involve not only fortifying Israel’s home front. Netanyahu and his people must prepare a diplomatic and legal offensive against Iran and its allies in the lead-up, and aftermath, of an Israeli strike against Iran.

The most obviously qualified person to fill this vital role is former defense minister Moshe Arens.

Aren has the experience, wisdom and gravitas to handle the job. Bereft of all political ambitions, Arens would in no way pose a threat to Netanyahu’s leadership.

Whoever Netanyahu chooses, he must choose quickly. His failure to bear in mind the first law of strategy places Israel in greater and greater peril with each passing day.

Russia to freeze missile sale to Iran, Putin tells Sarkozy – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

June 11, 2010

Following meet, Sarkozy spokesman says Putin confirmed scrapping of planned weapons deal with Iran despite Iranian threats to impose penalties against Russia.By Reuters and Haaretz Service

via Russia to freeze missile sale to Iran, Putin tells Sarkozy – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Putin and Sarkozy

French President Nicolas Sarkozy speaking with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Paris, June 11, 2010.

Photo by: Reuters

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has told France that Moscow will freeze a delivery of surface-to-air missiles to Iran, French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s office said on Friday following talks between the two men.

Russia has a contract to sell S-300 missiles to Tehran and there was confusion whether the deal could go ahead under the terms of a fourth round of United Nations sanctions introduced earlier this week to penalize Iran over its nuclear program.

However a spokesman for Sarkozy told reporters that Putin had confirmed the delivery would be frozen. The official quoted the Russian leader as saying Iran was “very unhappy” and wanted to impose penalties on Moscow for breaking the contract.

The French spokesman also said that France and Russia wanted to speed up talks on the possible sale of French-made helicopter carriers to Moscow.

Russia wants to buy the Mistral class warship to modernise hardware that was exposed as outdated during its war against Georgia in 2008. France has said it is willing to sell the ship, but talks have got bogged down over technology sharing.

“Negotiations are going on at a technical level and there is a desire on both sides to speed things up,” the French official told reporters.

Since the UN sanctions resolution against Iran was approved on Wednesday, Russia has released several contradicting reports regarding it missle deal with Iran. Russia said on Thursday it was in discussions with Iran on possible new nuclear power plants in the Islamic state, the country’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters.
“We are discussing these [new plants] with our Iranian partners, we are practically discussing this now,” Lavrov said.

Earlier Thursday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that new United Nations sanctions against Tehran over its contentious nuclear program do not oblige Moscow to scrap a controversial deal to deliver surface-to-air missiles to Iran.

The clarification came after the Russian Interfax news agency cited an arms industry source as saying Russia would freeze its unfulfilled contract to sell S-300 missiles to Iran after the UN Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on the Islamic Republic Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko told journalists, however, that the UN resolution does not apply to air-defense systems, with the exception of mobile missiles.

The report citing an unidentified source in Russia’s arms industry contradicted Russian officials and others who have said the sanctions approved on Wednesday with Moscow’s support would not affect the air-defense missile deal.

“The UN Security Council decision is binding for all countries and Russia is no exception,” Interfax cited the source as saying. “Naturally, the contract to deliver S-300 missile systems will be frozen.”

Russia has used its unfulfilled deal to provide Iran with S-300 missiles as a lever in its delicate diplomacy with Tehran and Western powers seeking to rein in Iran’s nuclear activity, which they say is aimed at acquiring atomic weapons.

Israel and the United States have asked Russia not to deliver the missile systems, which can shoot down several aircraft or missiles simultaneously and could potentially be used to protect nuclear facilities.

Western diplomats in Moscow believe Russia is eager to keep the deal in reserve as a bargaining chip. Iran has expressed increasing frustration over the unfulfilled contract.
Russia’s move toward support for the new sanctions against Iran has been accompanied by repeated assurances that the measures would not affect the S-300 deal.

The latest came on Thursday from the Kremlin-allied chairman of the International Affairs committee in Russia’s lower parliament house. Konstantin Kosachyov said the S-300 is a defensive weapon and would not be affected, Itar-Tass reported.

In Washington, Republican U.S. Senator Jon Kyl criticized the UN sanctions resolution on Wednesday for excluding the S-300 deal and Russia’s construction of Iran’s first nuclear power plant near Bushehr.

Russia has close ties with Iran and has worked with China, also a veto-wielding UN Security Council member, to water down Western-backed sanctions resolutions against Tehran, including the latest one.

But Moscow has been increasingly critical of Tehran’s rejection of a proposal to ease concerns about the purpose of its nuclear program by having uranium shipped to Russia for enrichment.

U.S. President Barack Obama has courted Russian support for the new sanctions, and administration officials have pointed to Moscow’s backing as a positive result of a “reset” aimed to improve long-strained ties.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday warned Russia not to side with “Iran’s enemies” by supporting the sanctions.

Rabbi who filmed Helen Thomas told to ‘go back in the oven’

June 11, 2010

Rabbi who filmed Helen Thomas told to ‘go back in the oven’ – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Rabbi David Nesenoff tells Haaretz the incident opened his eyes as to the extent of anti-Semitism in the world and how central it was in certain social groups.

By Natasha Mozgovaya

“Hitler was right. Time for you to go back in the oven,” is one of the more subdued expressions to be found in the thousands of missives received by the rabbi whose interview with Helen Thomas included the veteran White House correspondent sending the Jews back to Poland and Germany.

“I asked everyone the same question about Israel, since I wanted to make a video supporting Israel,” Rabbi David Nesenoff told Haaretz, saying his encounter with Thomas on May 27, too place as the White House celebrated Jewish Heritage Month, the first such event to organized by U.S. President Barack Obama and his wife Michelle.

“I was very surprised when Thomas told me that not only was she opposed to the two-state solution, but that she thought that the Jews should leave Israel and return to the final solution, more or less,” Nesenoff said.

Nesenoff said he knew Thomas had been critical of Israel in the past, but “the most I was expecting was that she would say something about a pullout from the Golan Heights. I wasn’t provoking or asking anything on purpose. I asked a very simple question, but I guess ‘Israel’ was the code word that burst the dam.”

Nesenoff said he was invited to the White House almost by accident, citing his teenage son Adam, who runs the Jewish video-chat website Shmoozepoint.com, as the reason for the invitation, saying, “everyone needs a seventeen year-old.”

“I’m less focused on her resignation,” Nesenoff told Haaretz, “than on the fact that this incident opened my eyes as to how much anti-Semitism there was in the world and how central it was in certain social groups.”

Nesenoff added, however, that as a rabbi he was interested in making the world better (Tikkun Olam) and repentance, saying that “Helen Thomas has the opportunity to make amends. She is still alive and could still do a lot of good.”

The rabbi also said that he had received approximately 25,000 missives, many of which he said were hate mail, following news of the incident and Thomas’ resignation.

They were threats, saying things such as ‘death,’ ‘you better watch out,’ and ‘will do to you things that were done to other people in history.’ According to Nesenoff, the letters spelled out threats not only against him and his family but also against the Jewish people as a whole.

The rabbi was reluctant to go into the security measures he had taken as a result of the threats, but said that “as people in Israel know – you can defend yourself, but the situation is still dangerous.”

Nesenoff added he received advice from some very prominent individuals, saying he spoke with former White House Press Secretary for U.S. President George W. Bush, Ari Fleischer, “who gave me some useful tips. I talked to Elie Wiesel yesterday, who told me ‘yasher koach’ [may you have strength]. When Elie Wiesel says something like that, you know you did something right.”

The rabbi also told Haaretz he believed the Helen Thomas affair was not incidental, saying he thought “it was fate.”

“I’ve always asked myself what I as an individual could do for Eretz Israel. I’ll turn 50 this year, and I ask myself what is my purpose in the world, how I could take advantage of the things that I have already learned and accomplished. I’ve always fought against racism and anti-Semitism – I started an anti-discrimination group in New York, I advised in largest case against restaurants that wouldn’t serve African-Americans, I met Mel Gibson following his anti-Jewish comments.”

Nesenoff said he had also participated in the production of films that had participated in many Jewish film festivals across the United States, using pieces he composed to convey a message of tolerance. “I will convey messages through art in this case as well,” he said.

According to Nesenoff, he no longer sees a difference between anti-Semitic and anti-Israel behavior, saying that Israel was “a legitimate state and if there’s any criticism it must be specific. But people keep returning to the question: Why are the Jews living there? They took over that country.’ It is a re-writing of history while ignoring the centuries-long Jewish presence in Israel. Those are statements against Jews, with anti-Israel sentiment being only a part of it.”

Nesenoff has uploaded some of the hate mail he had received to his website Rabbilive.com. “It may be vulgar and repulsive, but I don’t want to censor it,” he said.

U.S. President Barack Obama and veteran White House reporter Helen  Thomas U.S. President Barack Obama bringing birthday greetings to veteran White House reporter Helen Thomas, who shares a birthday with him, on August 4, 2009
Photo by: AP

ANALYSIS / Ahmadinejad has become a danger to Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

June 11, 2010

ANALYSIS / Ahmadinejad has become a danger to Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

As the Iranian regime’s control over the country’s streets and the universities crumbles, the likelihood of a revolution is steadily increasing.

It has been a year since the reelection in Iran of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The international controversy surrounding the Iranian leader suddenly comes down to one question: What has Iran done to the United States, and what has the United States done to Iran over the past year? Has Ahmadinejad laughed in the world’s face and has U.S. President Barack Obama saved the world from Iran?

Iran, a country of more than 70 million people, has not become a symbol of evil due to its support for terrorism or because it is run by a religious cleric, or for that matter because it has oppressed liberal political movements, closed newspapers and executed homosexuals. Neither Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, Egypt nor Israel are perfect democracies.

Human rights are not usually a basis for imposing sanctions, and dangerous terrorist movements exist in every Muslim country. Iran’s evil image is related to its uranium enrichment program and its denial of the Holocaust.

While the past year has been a year of conflict over the uranium enrichment program, and much less so over Ahmadinejad’s denial of the Holocaust and Israel’s right to exist, it has been a revolutionary year for the Iranians themselves. True, there has been no actual revolution, but it apparently took a huge election fraud last year to incite the largest protests in the country since the 1979 revolution and criticism of the president from conservative members of parliament. These events reflect a new chapter in Iran.

This is the story of a regime that, after 30 years in power, is facing uncertainty over its continued hold on power due to the Iranian people themselves. It is not some external enemy that has threatened the authorities. It is not the sanctions that the regime has become used to for about 30 years, and which it has managed to evade relatively successfully, or the Arab front suddenly arrayed against the country.

The regime is beginning to be consumed from within, and as a result, Ahmadinejad has become a danger to Iran itself, to such an extent that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has on several occasions had to contravene the president’s decisions and set down a policy that did not square with Ahmadinejad’s pretentious aspirations.

This is because the Iranian economy has been wrecked not so much by sanctions as by Ahmadinejad’s distorted economic policies. Many things have turned the people against the regime: the huge waste of Iran’s monetary reserves, the investment in ostentatious projects that enriched many companies from countries that have signed onto sanctions against Iran, the failure to create jobs for the millions of Iran’s unemployed, and the iron fist employed against the president’s rivals. This has only strengthened the influence of the Revolutionary Guards in every possible location, especially in response to the events of the past year. This process can be seen from economic projects to military surveillance over the Persian Gulf, from the airport to uranium enrichment.

In the face of the disintegration of control over the streets and the universities, Iran has become a country over the past year where the army is afraid of the people. That is a new phenomenon in Iran in the period since the fall of the Shah, but in no way is it new to Iranian history. During the Shah’s rule, a quiet civilian rebellion built up, and the security forces imposed a stranglehold on the civilian population until the people took to the streets and got rid of the regime. It was a matter of 25 years until the Islamic revolution actually occurred, and now the Islamic regime is discovering a similar threat to its existence on those same streets.

Now the question is how long can the regime convince the public of the need for unity in the face of an external enemy. Ahmadinejad will complete his term as president in another three years, and then has to wait four years before he can run again. These four years will be an important period during which the Iranian public must be taught that the disaster called Ahmadinejad cannot be repeated.