WarSclerotic

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By Bob Ellis on June 30th, 2010

Diagram of Operation Opera, the Israeli strike on Iraqi nuclear facilities in 1981 (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

Now there is a second source claiming Israel is gearing up for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Unlike the British Times newspaper I mentioned yesterday, I don’t know much about The Daily Mail from Islamabad, Pakistan, so I can’t vouch for its credibility. Yet it is reporting something very similar to the Times article which claims Saudi Arabian sources say Israel has permission to overfly their territory to strike nuclear facilities in Iran.

From Pakistan’s Daily Mail:

THE Daily Mail has learnt that Israel is massing warplanes in the Caucasus for an attack on Iran. Preparations are underway to launch the military attack from Azerbaijan and Georgia, reports Akhbar Al Khaleej, quoting military sources. It has been reported that Israel was, in fact, training pilots in Turkey to launch the strike and was smuggling planes into Georgia using Turkish airspace, according to the sources.

And

Azerbaijan-based intelligence units, working under the cover of technicians, trainers and consultants, have helped with the preparations, the sources have revealed. Military equipment, mostly supplied by the US, was transported to a Georgian port via the Black Sea. Georgian coastguard and Israeli controllers are co-operating to hide the operations from Russian vessels, said the sources. They point out that according to Israel, it will not be in a position to launch a strike on Iran without using bases in Georgia and Azerbaijan due to the limited capabilities of its nuclear submarines stationed near the Iranian coast.

If accurate, could this be a “Plan B” to a planned strike from Israel flying over Saudi Arabia? Could it be a new and different plan, now that the strike across Saudi Arabia has been mentioned in the media? Could it be part of a two-pronged attack that doesn’t put all the eggs in one basket for taking out Iranian nuclear sites?

The Jerusalem Post is a publication I know more about, and I know it is reputable. The Post is also reporting on Israeli activity in Saudi Arabia:

Israel Air Force aircraft dropped off large quantities of military gear at a Saudi Arabian military base a week ago, in preparation for a potential attack on Iran, a number of Iranian and Israeli news outlets have reported.

The unconfirmed report, first published by the semi-official Iranian news agency Fars and the Islam Times Web site, claimed that on June 18 and 19, Israeli helicopters unloaded military equipment and built a base just over 8 km. outside the northwestern city of Tabuk, the closest Saudi city to Israel, located just south of Jordan. All civilian flights into and out of the city were said to have been canceled during the Israeli drop-off, and passengers were reportedly compensated by the Saudi authorities and accommodated in nearby hotels.

The article also mentions something I have seen reported in other media outlets over the past week or two:

Also last week, Egyptian sources told London-based Al- Quds Al-Arabi that an American fleet consisting of 11 frigates and an aircraft carrier, believed to be the nuclearpowered aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, passed through the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. Eyewitnesses told the paper that an Israeli frigate was among the passing ships and that Egyptian authorities had suspended all commercial boat traffic in the canal for several hours to enable the fleet to pass. Thousands of Egyptian soldiers and two helicopters were reportedly deployed to the area during the passage.

All of this adds up to a lot of reported Israeli activity throughout the Middle East. The preponderance of evidence is getting considerable.

Two things are certain: (1) Someone needs to prevent the maniacs in Iran from getting nuclear weapons, and (2) if Israel launches a strike against those nuclear facilities, they had better be sure they get the job done right–because there will be hell to pay afterward.

Is the hell to be paid worth it?  Yes.  But it still won’t be pleasant.

Asia Times Online :: Middle East News, Iraq, Iran current affairs.

By David Moon

In mid-June, Hugh Tomlinson in the Times of London wrote that the government of Saudi Arabia conferred on Israel the “green light” for use of its airspace for an attack on Iran. This revelation was said to be conventional wisdom inside the Saudi military. Tomlinson also quoted an unnamed United States military source stating to the effect that the US Department of State and the Defense Department had both said “grace” over this arrangement.
The Saudis and Israelis immediately denied the report, while US officials made no specific comments on the subject. The silence and denials nixed further media speculation.

First reported in the Times of London in July 2009 and referred to again in Tomlinson’s recent article is word of a supposed meeting between Israel’s Mossad chief Meir Dagan and unnamed Saudi intelligence leaders to discuss such an arrangement that both governments denied then and now.

Given the apparent regional political status quo, how might the

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Israeli Air Force (IAF) strike Iran undetected on approach and at the very least unacknowledged on return if the decision is made in Jerusalem that the existential threat posed by Iran’s arc of nuclear progress can no longer safely be tolerated?

Although the coordination of logistics and tactics of such a long distance mission – 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) on the straight line from Tel Aviv to Iran’s uranium enrichment facility in Natanz – is daunting, the strategic or political realities must be defined before all else.

Overflight of Iraq on a direct bearing to Iran is out of the question. Such a path would cause friction between the US, responsible for Iraq’s aerial sovereignty, and the next Iraqi government sure to be of delicate composition. It’s safe to assume that the US views stability in Iraq far higher on the national interest meter than say apartments in east Jerusalem, thus for Israel the straight line over Iraq comes at a price that it can ill afford to pay.

The likely route to Iran, beginning at regional dusk preferably in the dark a new moon, is to fly a great circle around Iraq. Only careful planning carried out with precision timing and execution will ensure success. For this route, almost every applicable IAF logistics and support asset would be utilized.

The first leg for any F-15I and F-16I fighter bombers is a low-level run up the Mediterranean in the area of the Syrian town of Latakin, where up to three KC-707s (aerial tankers) in race track orbit would top up the tanks of the strike group. This tankage is absolutely necessary for the shorter-legged F-16I (range 1,300 miles). Refueling the F-15I (range 2765 miles) is desirable but not a necessity unless intelligence suggests targets beyond eastern Iran.

To skirt Turkish airspace and the ability of the Turkish military to raise an alarm heard throughout the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the strike group with two pairs of Gulfstream G-550s: one of each outfitted as a network-centric collaborative targeting (NCCT) and one each employing Senior Suter technology must fly low across northern Syria. The G-550 is a small package with the range the speed to accompany the strike group round trip without refueling – therefore up to the challenge.

The NCCT aircraft ferrets out air defense radars. The Suter partner beams a data stream containing, what in computer parlance is called a a “worm”, into air defense radars with the capability of incapacitating an entire air defense network, if such a network is under centralized control.

This technology pioneered by the US Air Force and part of the code named the “Big Safari” program is heady stuff said to work wonders over Syria during the IAF’s strike on Syria’s North Korean-designed nuclear reactor in September 2007. The support of the G-550s will be instrumental every mile of the mission.

Non-networked anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) in states hostile to Israel may necessitate F-16Is in the tried and true AGM-88 high speed anti-radiation missile (HARM) mission.

Yet another application of high technology was the launch on June 11, 2007, of Ofek-7, as noted by Richard B Gasparre, also a source on G-550s in IAF service at airforce-technology.com, is a “… reconnaissance satellite, which gives Israeli intelligence specialists site and system mapping capability of unprecedented accuracy”. Ofek-7 undoubtedly contributed to strike planning for the IAF’s mission to Syria.

These powerful tools will be counted on to enable the strike package to skirt either Turkish or Iraqi airspace for a short jump of 150 or so miles to reach Iranian airspace undetected. The distance on a straight line from Latakin to Tabriz in Iran is 618 miles. The flight is shorter if the Israelis avoid Turkey and cut the Kurdish corner.

At a designated point over northern Iran, the strike group splits into Q and E-flights. Q-Flight flies southeast 348 miles to reach the known uranium-enrichment sites in Qom (under construction) and Natanz (operational). E-Flight homes in on the gas storage development site at Esfahan and the heavy water reactor complex at Arak on a more southerly path of 481 miles.

All the while in Iranian airspace, the G-550 Suter and NCCT aircraft work in tandem and with F-16I aircraft to suppress radars and AAA, while F-15Is designated top cover guard against any air-to-air threat put up by Iran’s air force.

The strike package can count on aid in the form of Popeye Turbo cruise missiles launched by at least one Israeli submarine from the Arabian Sea against targets in Iran designed to shield the Israeli planes, degrade enemy responses and sow confusion among the Iranian military.

At some point, one of the three US Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint ELINT (electronic intelligence) platforms in the area will “see” Iranian air defense radars and hear an explosion of Iranian voices on open airwaves and quickly piece together events in Iran. This collected product will be immediately passed through Central Command to Washington for dissemination to the principles of the National Security Council, including US President Barack Obama.
Seven hours earlier, at least three IAF KC-707s would have flown the 3,500 miles around the Arabian Peninsula, likely painted up like commercial 707 cargo aircraft, transiting international airspace to a meeting point over the northern Persian Gulf. At this extreme range, each KC-707 carries only an estimated 85,000 lbs of fuel to pass to the hungry F-16Is flying 451 miles from Qom and 350 miles from Esfahan.

Each F-16I will require at least 5,000 lbs of jet fuel for the final leg of nearly 1,000 miles through northern Saudi Arabia then home. Thus, a hinge point in IAF planning; the Israelis must determine the mix of F-16Is and KC-707s committed to the mission.

On and over the Persian Gulf, given the presence of US Navy and Air Force AWACS platforms such as the EC-2 Hawkeye and E-3 Sentry along with SPY-1 radars of US Navy cruisers and destroyers, the Israelis can have no expectation at all that the refueling scrum of the F-16Is will go undetected. During this evolution, any IAF planes too damaged to make it home can ditch close to a US Navy ship with a reasonable expectation of rescue.

Much will depend on what the US does with the information in hand. Does Obama choose to inform Iraqi and Gulf Cooperation Council allies of the situation, or will various US radars simply go into “diagnostic mode”, as if operators cannot believe what they see?

If Obama’s decision is to watch and listen, the strike group can try a run for home across northern Saudi Arabia. Here, the Saudis have a decision. The Saudi Air Force can defend the kingdom’s airspace, possibly taking loses and handing out same, or the Israelis can bet on G-550s tricking out the kingdom’s air defenses in a manner that gives the Saudis an excuse to say they were blinded by the IAF and the non-cooperation of the US.

By flying north, the IAF reaps the benefits of plausible deniability, a political necessity for US and allied Arab states. These states can honestly say they had no prior knowledge of IAF planes winging it to Iran with full racks of missiles and bombs.

Another option is available to the Israelis to increase the IAF’s odds of flying the northern leg undetected. This choice is to strike the “Duchy of Nasrallah” – Hezbollah under Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon – to create cover and sow confusion. If the IAF is to strike Iran, immediate blowback is to be expected from Iran-supported Hezbollah’s extensive inventory of unguided missiles.

On June 18, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman and task group including the German frigate Hessen in the company of an unidentified Israeli naval vessel made a fast transit of the Suez Canal. The Egyptians not only closed the canal to all traffic, all fishing boats where docked, while the Egyptian military lined the banks of the canal. All facets of this passage rank as extraordinary.

It is readily apparent that the US Department of State and the Pentagon collaborated closely with an Arab country to create a lane of fast transit not only for US Navy assets and an attached NATO ally, but for an Israeli ship.

One more element, the IDF launched their improved Ofek-9 reconnaissance satellite on June 22. Is this a matter of timing or of coincidence?

Tensions are high in the region, yet little could precipitate a full diplomatic meltdown quicker than for Iran to directly challenge Israel’s blockade of Gaza. And this confrontation is in no way limited to Israel and Iran. Such a provocation could easily inflame public opinion in Sunni Arab states, where leaders are weary of Tehran’s grandstanding on the question of Israel. Tehran’s rhetoric of threats toward Israel politically undermines Arab governments seen as less fervent on the subject.

CNN reported on June 24 on Iran’s canceled designs to directly test the Gaza blockade. Hossein Sheikholeslam, secretary general of the International Conference for the Support of the Palestinian Intifada, said, “In order not to give the Zionist regime an excuse, we will send the aid through other routes and without Iran’s name.”

Sheiholeslam’s comment makes little sense, as the point of Iran’s aid exercise was to win the propaganda war against Israel and Arab states. Whatever Iran’s “excuse”, there is reason now to suspect the Tehran regime will back down if decisively confronted by a motivated and unified coalition of area states.

Hezbollah vows to ‘defend Lebanese gas’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

In interview with al-Manar television, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said that organization will not hesitated to use ‘all means’ in order ‘to exercise Lebanon’s sovereignty over its natural treasures.’ He accuses US of being biased towards Israel

Roee Nahmias

Published: 06.30.10, 15:15 / Israel News

.a share

via Israel, China cooperate on response measures to missile war.

TEL AVIV — Israel and China have found another field of cooperation between their two militaries — civil defense.

An Israel military delegation has conducted briefings in China on civil defense measures meant to counter a missile war. The delegation, which visited China in late June, was led by Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, head of the military’s Home Front Command.

“This is another area of non-combat cooperation that serves both our interests and those of China,” a military source said.

During the visit, Golan and his delegation met leading Chinese commanders and defense officials. The source said discussions ranged from civil defense measures to the munitions employed by such adversaries as Hamas, Hizbullah, Iran and Syria, all of which have been reported to acquire military support from Beijing.

The Israeli delegation also briefed the Chinese hosts on the latest nationwide civil defense exercise, Turning Point-4. The exercise had envisioned an Iranian and Syrian missile attack on Israeli cities.

This marked the second Israeli military delegation to China in 2010. In April, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin and planning director Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel arrived in Beijing and briefed Chinese leaders on the Iranian nuclear threat.

Military sources acknowledged that Israel has sought to improve defense and security cooperation with China. They said the cooperation, closely monitored by the United States, would be restricted to non-combat issues.

Iran: Rumors of war reach fever pitch – UPI.com.

Iran declares boycott on Coca Cola, Intel and ‘Zionists’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Ahmadinejad signs law forbidding Iranian broadcast authority from airing advertisements for ‘Zionist’ companies. Black list include American companies owned by Jews and firms that do business with Israel. Nestle, IBM, others in crosshairs

Dudi Cohen

Oren: Iran may unleash wave of terrorist violence – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Pessimistic Scenario

Oren. ‘Don’t fall into trap’ Photo: AP

Qassam rocket fired from Gaza destroys Negev packing plant – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Rocket also seriously damages other structures in the Sdot Negev Regional Council; no one hurt.

By Yanir Yagna

A Qassam rocked fired from the Gaza Strip hit the western Negev before dawn Wednesday, seriously damaging a packing plant and other structures in the Sdot Negev Regional Council, but causing no casualties.

	A Qassam rocket.
	Photo by: Albert Sadiko

“Tonight we took the hit, but the [rocket] fire is constant,” the plant’s manager said. “On the whole, we are a peaceful and quiet community,” he continued. “People got up and went to work and are trying to continue the day’s routines.”

“The biggest problem is that that our houses are not protected [against rocket fire]; I hope [the government] speeds up the fortification work,” he concluded.

The rocket attack comes one day after Israel Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Eitan Dango who oversees civilian operations in the West Bank told the Palestinian Authority that Israel plans to significantly boost the number of aid trucks allowed into the Gaza Strip.

Israel Army Chief Of Staff: Gaza Will Not Turn Into Iranian Port – The Philadelphia Bulletin.

By DAVID BEDEIN, Middle East CorrespondentTuesday, June 29, 2010

JERUSALEM – “If the flotilla arrives from Lebanon we will deal with it, whether its intentions are peaceful or hostile. We will not let Gaza become Iran’s home port.”

This was the statement released this week by Israeli Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi.

The Israeli Army Chief of staff commented on the flotilla that is scheduled to arrive from Lebanon, saying: “We will not let the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] soldiers be attacked; we have an inherent right to prevent arms from being brought into the country.” The chief of staff also commented on the events of the flotilla from Turkey, saying: “The combatants responded properly and acted in an extraordinary manner, and I salute them.”

Contradictory reports continued regarding the departure date of the Lebanese flotilla and the Iranian ships to Gaza. One of the organizers, Samar al-Hajj, said that this was deliberate. The Iranian media reported that a ship belonging to the Iranian Red Crescent called the “Gaza children’s ship” would leave for Gaza this coming Sunday, bearing 1,100 tons of aid supplies.

The Arab media also reported that the Julia and the Miriam were scheduled to leave at the beginning of next week from the port of Tripoli in northern Lebanon for Cyprus — and from there sail towards the Gaza Strip.

Jamal al-Khudari, a Palestinian Legislative Council member and head of the Popular Committee Against the Siege, said yesterday that the Lebanese ships would also have on board 12 former senior members of the U.S. administration, Lebanese citizens and peace activists from all over the world. He said that in mid-July another flotilla would leave Lebanon for Gaza, consisting of 15-20 ships.

Israeli officials are not taking any chances in advance of the anticipated flotillas and are seriously examining every possible scenario. One such scenario that was addressed in a meeting in the Prime Minister’s Office involved the presence of a suicide bomber on board the ship who would be waiting for the Naval Commandos.

In that scenario, it is not at all certain that the women on board the ship would be aware of the presence of a suicide bomber, whose goal would be to carry out a high-profile terror attack. Given the concerns about the presence of a suicide bomber on board, a number of additional steps will be taken prior to boarding the boat.

A senior Lebanese official in Beirut said in an interview to Al-Jazeera that despite all of Hezbollah’s denials that it had any connection to the flotilla to Gaza, Prime Minister Saad Hariri took the matter up with Nasrallah and asked him to cancel the flotilla. Nasrallah rejected the Lebanese prime minister’s request, claiming that Hezbollah was not responsible for the flotilla. Nasrallah said that Hariri needed to make his request to the organizations, activists in the Free Palestine organization and Journalists Without Borders.

Israeli government officials have already submitted a request to Cyprus not to allow Lebanese ships that intend to sail to Gaza to leave its ports.

Flotilla Organizer: “Our Ships Will Take The Israelis Back To Europe”

The financier of the Lebanese flotilla, the Syrian businessman of Palestinian extraction Yasser Kashlak, gave an interview to Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television station, in which he left no room for doubt as to the nature of the “Lebanese peace flotilla.” Kashlak said that, “I become more and more optimistic every time the Israelis, that band of criminal pirates, confiscates a ship because the day will come when those ships will transport the remains of that European trash that came to my homeland and will return them back to their homeland. Let Gilad Shalit return to Paris, and those murderers return to Poland, and then we will pursue them until the end of the world to bring them to justice for the massacres that they have committed from Dir Yassin to this very day.”

Kashlak called Israel a “stray dog that was sent to the region to frighten the Arabs,” and added: “I have a message for the Israelis: get on the boats that we’re sending you and go back to your countries. Don’t let the moderate Arab leaders deceive you. You won’t be able to make peace with us. Our children will return to Palestine. There is no reason for coexistence. Even if our leaders have signed peace agreements with you, we will not sign them.”

Israel has warned the United Nations (UN) about the danger posed to the Middle East by the flotilla that is being planned.

Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gabriela Shalev sent a personal letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the current president of the UN Security Council in which she warned against the “provocative flotilla” that was liable to have an impact on security in the entire region. Shalev wrote: “The organizers of the flotilla have repeatedly declared their intention to be shahids, and there appears to be a direct link between them and Hamas activists. The possibility that either terrorists or weapons will be smuggled on board the ship to Gaza cannot be ruled out. Given that and on the basis of the departure of the ship from Lebanon—and in light of the ongoing conflict between the terrorist organization Hamas, which controls Gaza, and Israel, Israel announces that it reserves the right to use all necessary means, and this is in keeping with international law, to prevent those ships from breaking the maritime blockade,” wrote Shalev.

Navy Command Ready For Next Flotilla

The Israeli Navy is already on high alert for the possibility that another flotilla will set sail for Gaza, this time from Lebanon. Last Friday, Naval Commando combat troops assembled at the unit’s base in Atlit and, in the presence of Navy Commander Maj. Gen. Eliezer Marom, the orders of Operation Sky Winds were read to them.

In the wake of media reports from Lebanon, the IDF went on alert in order to track the flotilla and gather intelligence that would assist the IDF’s response. IDF officials believe that the flotilla from Lebanon will not set sail over the next several days. “As of now, we know that activists are gathering and that one ship is being organized in Lebanon,” a Navy officer said. “They intend to purchase additional ships. However, we are prepared to set out on an operation within hours.”

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah: Barack Obama’s most important friend – Telegraph Blogs.

Barack Obama with King Abdullah at the G20 conference (Photo: AFP/Getty)

President Obama meets King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia later today, and though I don’t suppose it will be picked up much it’s probably far more important than any White House meetings he will have with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinians, or even David Cameron.

There’s something so weird to Western eyes, obsessed with youth and the cut of your suit and the colour of your tie, about seeing an 86 year-old in a white robe turn up at the White House that it doesn’t compute into importance in our minds. Saudi Arabia, too, is a subject that makes both liberals and neo-cons nervous. Nervous? Apoplectic with rage, more like.

But the facts have to be faced: Saudi is America’s second-most important ally in the Middle East, and nowadays a lot easier to deal with than the number one. It is certainly a strategic asset, and King Abdullah represents a better hope for a Saudi Arabia we can grow to respect than most other leaders it has had. Abdullah may be an absolute monarch of a state where Christianity is banned, executions are public, jihadism is rife and women are, well, not given to overt displays of “Girl Power”. But he argues for a Middle East that tackles fundamentalism head-on but humanely, that is willing to accept the existence of Israel, even if it does not actively welcome it, and above all is tough on Iran. Tough on Iran? If Saudi Arabia poses a real problem to America it is that its hatred of Iran is so intense that sometimes it cannot think straight about it.

There are many rumours, all denied, suggesting that Saudi Arabia is prepared to cooperate in an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. That may all be a clever game of bluff. What is undeniably true is that Riyadh cannot accept the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran, which would enable it to exert its regional influence, particularly in countries like Saudi Arabia with substantial Shia populations, and at the same time does not believe sanctions will work.

Obama, his advisers and his generals – and, I truly think, the entire Washington establishment except for a handful of particularly gung-ho neo-cons like John Bolton – do not think they have any realistic solution to the Iran dilemma. The fall-out from a military attack, either by the States itself or by Israel, would be horrendous and, in the wake of Iraq and Afghanistan, currently unimaginable. In a year or two, they might just believe it worth taking a risk, but I have a hunch that Obama, and perhaps most Republicans too, now acknowledge that this it is a risk that cannot be taken without the implicit approval of Iran’s neighbours, in the same way that an attack on North Korea’s nuclear facilities was never going to happen because South Korea would never allow it. Hence the importance of King Abdullah’s visit, while he is only 86 and still whizzing around the world.

The standard AFP diplomatic round-up I link to here quotes a Dubai-based analyst, Mustafa Alani, interestingly and amusingly: “The Saudis believe strongly that economic sanctions will have no effect.” But, he says, “they have no answer” as to an alternative. Dr Alani is both astute and an excellent interpreter of Saudi thinking – his base, the Gulf Research Centre, is part Saudi-funded. And he’s right to say that this is the impression we have of Saudi thinking – a lot of bluster about the inadequacy of the world’s response to Iran, but not much on what it would have done differently.

I do wonder though whether, in the strictest privacy, King Abdullah will be telling Mr Obama exactly how far he’s prepared to see him go.