WarSclerotic

The Pioneer > Online Edition : >> Taming Tehran.

Barry Rubin

Proposed sanctions are not enough to deter Iran

Since West Asia is so important nowadays, it’s a pity that a lot of people—including policy-makers and opinion-makers — don’t understand some basic concepts about the region. So let’s try to explain these things to them.

What is the use, at least potentially, of sanctions on Iran? We all know that any sanctions the world, or even the US Administration, is likely to apply won’t stop Iran’s nuclear programme. But there are many other potential goals for having sanctions. These include:

Making it harder for Iran to build these weapons and the missiles to carry them, slowing down the programme, reducing Iran’s economic assets which can be used for military spending, denying Iran other weapons, intimidating Iran into greater caution in its actual behaviour, and encouraging factions (both within the establishment and in the opposition) to conclude that the current Tehran regime is leading them to disaster and must be displaced.

Of these six goals, the plan largely accomplishes one of them — barring the sale of most conventional weapons (but not anti-aircraft missiles) — and does a small amount toward reducing Iran’s assets and slowing down the project. In general, though, it is a question of too little too late.

Again, the problem is not that the sanctions proposed (and which might still be watered down further) aren’t so huge as to make Iran stop but that they will not make Iran more cautious, promote internal conflict due to their high cost, or really put on economic pressure to reduce military spending and increase internal unrest.

Should the world stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons? In principle, the answer is “yes” but we now know that this will not happen. The task, then, is to prepare for a strong containment strategy. This is also not happening.

The US Administration seems to believe that “declaring” containment — for example, if Tehran gives nuclear weapons to terrorists we will do something; if Tehran attacks a neighbour we will do something — is sufficient at a time when US credibility and deterrence is at an all-time low in our lifetimes.

Why did Russia and China agree to the sanctions’ plan? Because it doesn’t stop them from doing everything they want, with the exception of selling conventional weapons to Iran (which they might smuggle into the country any way).

How do we know that US credibility and deterrence power is at an all-time low due to the current policy of “proud weakness” by the Obama Administration? Take a look at Lebanon, for example. Former champions of Lebanese sovereignty against Hizbullah, Iran, and Syria, now rush to Damascus to pledge allegiance to the Syrian dictatorship. US leaders also don’t notice the defection of the Turkish regime to the other side. Even with Brazil, despite Mr Obama’s lavish praise for that country’s radical president, Tehran’s view counted more than that of Washington.

There are many articles in Arabic-speaking newspapers and other sources about how they feel the US is too weak and undependable as a protector. Simultaneously, there are growing moves to appease Syria and Iran.

Is the concept of Iran using nuclear weapons as a “defensive umbrella” for aggression a viable one? Absolutely. Having nuclear weapons will make Iran “untouchable” in terms of retaliation. We already see this on a smaller scale with North Korea and Pakistan. North Korea is so confident that it torpedoed and sank a South Korean ship, knowing that its adversary can do nothing about it. That regime also ignores all the requests, demands, and pressures on it to change its behaviour even though its people are on the edge of starvation.

Pakistan is a stronger case. It has in the recent past seized Indian territory and continues to sponsor a full-scale terrorist war on India, knowing New Delhi has no military option. Since the bloody assault on Mumbai, Pakistan has done nothing and India is helpless to do anything.

This is all on a small scale compared to Iran’s capabilities, assets, and ambitions. The strategic idea is that Iran will not actually fire off nuclear weapons but having them gives it huge prestige that will help recruit many thousand Muslims in other countries into its client organisations, and intimidate the West and Arabic-speaking states into passivity or active appeasement.

Should Israel attack Iranian nuclear installations? I lean toward a “no” on this question for a number of reasons. We know that such an operation would not destroy Iran’s ability to rebuild its capability, or might not even damage it significantly. Too much can go wrong with the attack itself.

Moreover, Israel lacks the minimal international support for such an attack. I don’t mean Israel cannot do it, but on a cost-benefit basis — and in military operations one cannot assume everything will go right — the strategy doesn’t seem a good bet. All that is only true, of course, if Israeli assessments are that Iran is not going to attack Israel. And if those assessments ever change, then such an operation should be launched.

No one should underestimate the value of Israel’s own defensive system, which can be especially effective against the very small number of missiles Iran could launch even if it did decide to attack Israel.

This analysis does not assume a nuclear Iran will not pose a huge and actual threat, but that the main problem is for Arabic-speaking states having to protect themselves from Iranian intimidation and subversion. It is also for the US having to create a credible system of containment.

— The writer is director of the GLORIA Center, Tel Aviv, and editor of the MERIA Journal.

Israel Defense Forces IDF Home Front Command Exercise Turning Point 4.

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By Joel Leyden
Israel News Agency

Jerusalem —- May 24, 2010 …. Part of the following briefing on the Israel Defense Forces IDF Home Front Command Training Exercise Turning Point 4 was provided to the Israel News Agency by the Israel Defense Forces.

IDF Col. Dr. Yechiel Soffer, Head of Population Control IDF Home Front Command speaks about the present national civil defense drill entitled: Turning Point 4.

IDF Col. Dr. Soffer said that Israel was now starting a national civil defense drill.

“We call it Turning Point 4. One of the conclusions reached after the 2nd Lebanon War was to better prepare the population for missile attacks and other emergent situations. This is the 4th year we are conducting this national drill. We exercise the population on Wednesday at 11 o’clock. Sirens will be heard all over Israel and we have told the civilian population to go to their shelters – public and private – just to practice the different times required to reach the shelter. For example, In Haifa we have one minute to go to the shelter. In Tel Aviv there are two minutes. In Jerusalem there are three minutes. We also practice the municipalities in Israel, all 225 of the. On Monday and Tuesday we practice the ministries such as Interior and Defense. Communications- all the ministries with the local municipalities. About 35 local municipalities’ altogether, in many different scenarios, for example: a missile attack, a plane crash, man casualties, etc. As I said, on Wednesday we drill the civilian population and on Thursday we continue the exercise with all the emergency organizations such as EMS, Home Front Command troops, the fire brigade, the Israel police.”

Col. Soffer was asked if he was just referring to acts of terrorism and or acts of war taking place in northern Israel, or also about the south of Israel.

“I’m talking about all kinds of attacks on Israel civilians. It doesn’t matter what the source of the missile is, every civilian has a predefined time to go into the shelter. If they hear an air raid siren, they must go inside the shelter. We don’t have peace with terror organizations in the Gaza Strip, so we must be prepared for a missile attack from the south, just as from the north.

Col. Dr. Soffer was asked how does one find out where their bomb shelter is?

“For everyone in Israel, since 1992, it is a mandatory regulation that when you build a house you have to build it with a private shelter- a protective room inside a room. It is one of the conclusions reached after the Gulf War in 1991. Approximately 30-35% of buildings in Israel have a Mamad- a protective room. Another 30% or so have either a public shelter or a private shelter in the bottom of the building. The rest, 20-25%, don’t have a regular protective shelter. We teach the public to choose the best solution they have in their building. For example, if they live on the top floor of their building, they have to go into the stairway one floor down and that is their protective area. If they are outside the building and don’t have enough time to go inside a shelter or building they have to lay down on the ground and that is the best solution that we can provide for them.

Col. Dr. Soffer was asked if one lived in Nachlaot and I didn’t have a shelter. What should they do?

“If you’re in a building you have to choose the interior room and will protect you. Not the best protection, but good protection.

Col. Dr. Soffer was asked why do you think Lebanon, Syria and Hezbollah are so afraid of this Israel nationwide drill that we’re going to have?

“I really can’t answer your question. It’s an Israel civil defense drill, not an offensive drill. I only heard from the media that Lebanon and Syria are afraid of this exercise. You can understand that it’s a civil defense drill, just to protect and prepare our population in Israel. I would like to add something- most countries prepare their population for all the disasters. In America and many other countries in Europe they prepare the public for earthquakes and other natural disasters because they’re afraid of those threats. But I’m afraid that other than natural disasters, we have threats from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.”

Col. Dr. Soffer was asked if the 2nd Israel Lebanon War had an effect on civilians that caused them to fear entering their safe rooms?

“Most of those killed during the 2nd Israel Lebanon War were killed in open spaces. Ninety percent were killed in open areas, ten percent were killed inside, but none were killed in their protection spaces.”

As part of the IDF exercise, IDF OC Home Front Command Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan informed Vilna’i of his decision to complete the draft of all IDF Home Front Command reservists after close to 200 rockets and missiles, included ones with chemical warheads launched from Syria, landed in the center of the country.

Under the IDF exercise, most of the missiles from Iran and Syria were landing in the Gush Dan region in the center of the country.

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu used the opening of the cabinet meeting Sunday to send a public message to Syria that the IDF Home Front exercise was a routine security event, and that Syria did not need to feel threatened by it.

“This is the fourth year in which we are holding this IDF homefront exercise,” said Netanyahu.

“I would like to make it clear that it is not the result of any exceptional security development. On the contrary, Israel wants calm, stability and peace.”

PM: Radical Islam with nukes – danger to mankind – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Netanyahu tells Russian-speaking journalists, ‘Great tragedies occurred when dangers were not recognized in time’; calls on Moscow to help efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions

Attila Somfalvi

“Radical Islam with nuclear capabilities poses a grave danger to mankind,” he said, adding, “What is currently regarded as terror will be completely different if it will have a nuclear umbrella.”The PM also told the conference, “We are at a historical crossroads. The greatest tragedies to befall the Jewish, Russian and Ukrainian people, occurred when they did not recognize danger in time. I expect all peace-seeking nations to join hands to stop evil.” Cooperation between Israel and Russia could help in this regard, he added.

Addressing the twin bomb attacks in Moscow’s subway system last March, Netanyahu offered his condolences to the Russian people and said, “Your enemy is our enemy, and vice versa.” He urged Russia to help block of radical Islam.

Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer also commented on the Iranian nuclear threat on Sunday during a conference on the Israeli-Syrian conflict and said Israel has the ability to shutdown Tehran’s nuclear program.

“Things that are currently changing in the Middle East are so dramatic that a new regional order is being formed with Iran becoming a nuclear power. I don’t see anyone stopping it,” he said, “It is not as though we don’t have the capabilities to stop the Iranian nukes, but I don’t see anyone who is capable of allowing Israel to sleep calmly.”

The Minister added, “Iran is a central link in the creation of a terror network in Iraq, Syria and Turkey, which is slowly joining this axis despite my efforts to conduct dialogue with them.

“Peace with Syria would have an even greater significance than the peace treaty with Egypt,” said Ben-Eliezer. “The Sinai Peninsula is a very effective buffer between us and Egypt, but we don’t have this kind of buffer (along the border with Syria).”

(Iran continues to give a new meaning to the word chuzpah every time it issues a statement.  Emboldened by what it perceives as Obama’s weakness and Israel’s subservience to the US, they think they can say anything they want and the world will cow tow.  I truly doubt they understand how the people of civilized nations see through their blustering subterfuge.  The governments may crawl, but ultimately the people of the world will put an end to this disgraceful chapter of human history. – Joseph Wouk)

Iran to West: Accept nuke deal as is.

Israel Insists a Drill Is Just a Drill – NYTimes.com.

JERUSALEM — As Israel embarked on a large-scale civil defense exercise on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to reassure Israelis and some jittery Arab neighbors that the nationwide drill was not meant to signal a deterioration in security or an imminent war.

“This is a routine exercise that has been scheduled for some time,” Mr. Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting. “I would like to make it clear that it is not the result of any exceptional security development. On the contrary, Israel aspires towards calm, stability and peace.”

The five-day exercise, designed to test the readiness of citizens, the emergency services and local authorities in the case of war, is taking place for the fourth consecutive year. It comes amid growing concern in Israel about the rocket and missile capabilities of militant groups on its borders, and the potential threat of a nuclear Iran.

But the exercise appears to have rattled nerves in Lebanon, where Israel fought a month-long war against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, in 2006. Prime Minister Saad Hariri told reporters in Cairo on Saturday that “to launch military exercises at such a time runs counter to peace efforts” with the Palestinians.

Hezbollah’s deputy head, Nabil Qaouk, said Friday that the military exercise was a sign of Israel’s aggressive intentions and that Hezbollah had gone on alert. Mr. Qaouk was speaking during a meeting at his home in southern Lebanon with the Jewish American intellectual Noam Chomsky, a fierce critic of both of American and Israeli policy who was barred by Israel from entering the Israeli-occupied West Bank from Jordan last week.

The Israeli military said the drill will include the sounding of sirens throughout the country on Wednesday and will “replicate emergency scenarios” in more than 30 local authorities, in cooperation with the Home Front Command.

In Gaza, unidentified gunmen attacked the site of a United Nations children’s summer camp before dawn on Sunday, burning empty water tanks and plastic sheds.

The Hamas government that rules the Palestinian enclave condemned the attack and said it had opened an investigation.

The beachside camp, which was still under construction, was set up by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which provides assistance to Palestinian refugees and their descendants. It was scheduled to open next month.

More than 20 masked militants were said to have taken part in the attack. The camp’s guard, Ibrahim Eliwa, 37, said he was awake at 3 a.m. when he saw “an army of gunmen approaching the camp.”

Mr. Eliwa was handcuffed. He said the gunmen tucked an envelope into his coat containing a letter and three bullets. “The letter carried threats to senior staff officials at UNRWA,” he said.

John Ging, operations director of the United Nations agency, promised to rebuild the camp and said that the agency would not be intimidated.

“It is a disgraceful situation,” he told reporters in Gaza. “There is no doubt in my mind that it is vandalism linked to a certain degree of extremism.”

The agency has been running summer programs for the past five years for some 250,000 children who study in its schools in Gaza. Hamas, the Islamic militant group, has been running its own camps since it took over Gaza in 2007.

In the Hamas camps, strict, bearded men, sometimes waving sticks, teach children the basic tenets of Islam. In the more popular United Nations camps, children’s activities have included painting, singing and swimming.

Last summer, Younis al-Astal, a Hamas lawmaker, accused the United Nations agency of “implementing a plan to spoil the growing generation of Gaza.”

Massive US Naval Build-Up Off the Shores of Iran | Editorial.

We urge you to read the article and form your own opinion as to what is going on off the shores of Iran. (and also this and this)

So – what IS going on?  Is the stage being set for the long expected attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities?  Well, nobody is going to admit that, even if it were true.  Is the US stationing itself, strategically, between Iran and Israel – as a clear warning to Israel NOT TO ATTACK IRAN?  With the Obama Regime clearly showing no favor for Israel, one must consider that possibility.

As one looks at the Iranian defense, especially the new Russian “Surface to Air Missiles,” one must consider the option of boots on the ground, inside Iran, to take out those mobile missiles by either hands-on destruction or painting the targets with lasers for aircraft to take out. Of course, we are describing a task, which would be undertaken by Special Forces troops.  Both Israel and the US have outstanding Special Forces who certainly have the capability to complete such a mission.

On the other hand, the US has the option of using its stealth aircraft to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities.  The Russian SAM’s can’t shoot ’em if they can’t see “em!

If stealth aircraft are to be involved in this mission, whatever it is, there will likely be no reports on their movement for they fly out of US bases, here in the states, and return to those same bases after their mission is complete.

Whatever the mission, this is a very large and a very visible task force assembling off Iran. SOMETHING IS going on.

It is important to remember the value of keeping the Straits of Hormuz open for the world’s flow of oil to continue, unimpeded, when the strike on Iran begins.  Iran has made it clear they will make an effort to block the straits immediately when the shooting begins.  Certainly one task of the US armada will be to secure the straits from attack by the Iranians.

Remember, too, that when THIS war begins it will be fought in the air, on land, and at sea. I should think that depending upon the intensity of the conflict and the durability of the Iranian forces, the use of tactical battlefield nukes would certainly be considered.  We KNOW the US has them and we THINK Israel has them as well.

With the American public signaling their war weariness it is unthinkable that the current regime would undertake another war unless they were sure it could be ended successfully and quickly.  Tactical nukes would do that.

Whatever is up, this naval flotilla gathering off the shores of Iran, sends a very strong signal that the US is not intimidated by Iran’s military posturing.  And it is never, ever, wise to thumb one’s nose at the IDF.  As the biblical story of David and Goliath points out, all too clearly, Israel has a very long record of defeating superior military forces.

Iran has rattled the tiger’s cage far too often.

Assad: Israel trying to ignite war – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Syrian president meets with French foreign minister, makes harsh accusations on backdrop of Israeli home front drill. He pleads with West to restrain Jewish state ‘in light of its dangerous tendencies and attempts to spark wars and conflicts’

Roee Nahmias

Top IDF general: It hasn’t been this quiet in north since 1948 – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

	GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot
	Photo by: Tomer Appelbaum

GOC Northern Command issues calming message to residents of north as Israel launches 5-day homefront defense drill to prepare for possible war.

GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot announced Sunday that “the Galilee hasn’t known a period of quiet such as this one almost since the establishment of the State of Israel.”

Speaking ahead of a massive five-day homefront defense drill dubbed “Turning Point 4” Eisenkot said that the Israel Defense Forces were going to “continue to act to maintain this quiet.”

The drill was due to last five days and be carried out in all parts of the country. During the first three days the drill was to involve IDF’s various command centers, the police, emergency services, ministries and other government offices.

Eisenkot made these remarks during a briefing for municipality heads along the confrontation line near Israel’s northern border.

“The big fear that emanates from the newspaper headlines comes from the behavior patterns of the [Lebanese militia] Hezbollah, which are a little reminiscent of the cold war” Eisenkot went on to say. “The pattern of mutual deterrence creates immense tension. The question, when the next conflict will arise, does not depend on one thing, but rather on a number of components, not all of which are up to us.”

“The only question that remains,” he continued, “is what will be the event that will spark the next conflagration. In my opinion, today, neither side has any interest in further conflict.”

“However,” Eisenkot went on to say, “The IDF knows how to handle simultaneous fronts in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. The question is how we’ll handle it as a people, as a public, as a homefront that supports its soldiers. We can deter states, and groups from taking action, but we can’t deter states from getting stronger, and that is why we are prepared for all out war within hours, both on the command level and the draft level.”

During the briefing, several municipality heads raised concerns that the tensions along the border with Lebanon will escalate, and asked Eisenkot to keep them up to date so that they too can prepare and issue appropriate instructions to their constituents. “I hope that the only heat this summer will be the weather, and not wars like the media keeps suggesting,” the head of the Hatzor Glilit council said. “I feel that there is a growing fear among my constituency and I they need to receive a calming message that the routine is being preserved.”

The head of the Upper Galilee regional council remarked that “in order to avoid tension, civilians living near the border have developed sharp instincts over the years. Therefore, the IDF needs to keep officials and civilians in the area up to date.”

As tensions rise, Israel launches air raid drill | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Israel launched its biggest air raid exercise Sunday to test its preparedness against possible missile strikes from Iranian-sponsored militant groups as international tensions rose over Tehran’s nuclear program.

World

Israel has called for strong economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear plans but, in a hint of possible military action, has said all options were on the table should diplomacy fail to resolve the dispute.

Israeli officials said the exercise, which will include sounding air raid sirens Wednesday, would focus on municipal authorities’ responses to a scenario in which missiles were launched from the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas Islamists, and by Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. Both are allies of Iran.

In public remarks at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Israel’s biggest civil defense exercise as a routine, protective move and said the government sought only “quiet, stability and peace.”

The air raid sirens will sound Wednesday nationwide in a signal to Israelis to take cover in shelters or designated secure areas for 10 minutes, and much of the public is expected to take part in this drill.

In a test of an emergency warning system, the military’s Home Front Command will also send text messages that read — “Have a nice day” — to cellphone owners in certain areas of the country, the army said in a statement to test communications.

Rescue services will be put on a practice emergency footing, while a partial distribution of gas masks is also planned, in addition to air raid drills to be held at schools and hospitals.

FIVE-DAY DRILL

The five-day drill dubbed “Turning Point 4” has sparked nervousness in the region as diplomatic efforts intensify to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which the West and Israel believe are aimed at building atomic weapons.

Iran denies its uranium enrichment program is a quest for nuclear arms and says it is purely for power. Israel is widely believed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal.

Itamar Rabinovitch, an expert on Middle East affairs and a former Israeli ambassador to Washington, said Israel must prepare for the possibility Iranian leaders would encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to fire on Israel in the event of stiffer U.N. sanctions against Iran.

“We must show we don’t intend to be sitting ducks in the event of such an attack,” Rabinovitch said.

Hezbollah fired more than 4,000 rockets into Israel during the 2006 Lebanon war. Hamas carried out numerous cross-border rocket attacks in the past, and Israel launched a war in the Gaza Strip in late 2008 with the aim of ending such strikes.

Israel has held a country-wide civil defense exercise annually for the past three years and military officials said the current drill is the most extensive in its 62-year history.

Hezbollah rockets did cause significant casualties during the Lebanon war, and Israeli officials have said that since the conflict ended, the group has bolstered its arsenal with more powerful and longer-range weapons.

Rockets fired from the Gaza Strip have rarely caused fatalities in Israel and carry a relatively small warhead. But Hamas has said it now has rockets that can reach deep into Israel.

Hizbullah Charges Massive Israeli Defense Drill a Plan for War – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.