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Archive for May 2010
YouTube – Will Israel attack Iran alone?
May 1, 2010Threatening Words | Before It’s News
May 1, 2010Threatening Words | Before It’s News.
The US is turning up the heat as more information is coming to light regarding Syria and Lebanon rearming Hezbollah. Israel is claiming that since the war in 2006 Hezbollah has stockpiled more than 40,000 rockets, some with the ability to strike Tel Aviv and other major cities in Israel. In a speech on Thursday to the American Jewish Committee, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke with a stern warning to Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad of the dangers he is creating if in fact they are transporting long-range Scud Missiles to the Lebanese terror organization. Of course, they are continuing to deny this.
In her speech Clinton stated that “these threats to Israel’s security are real, they are growing and they must be addressed.” She added: “over the past month we have attempted to remove any ambiguity. The President and his Administration have repeatedly reaffirmed our commitment to Israel’s security in word and deed.” But, it seemed from the audience’s response, as well as my own opinion, that her comments had little meaning or follow-up. Her purpose was purely to go on record that our government was making it perfectly clear to President Assad that the consequences of his actions could spark a regional war, destabilizing the region. The rest of her comments were purely blah, blah, blah, including her defense of the decision to return an ambassador to Syria after five years. Other than that, one has to note how impotent the Obama Administration has become in the Middle East.
On Friday we got to hear a response to Clinton’s comments from Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Rida Rahimi: “We will cut off Israel’s feet if they attack Syria.” And who should be standing next to Rahimi in Damascus when he made that remark? Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Naji al-Utri. Both were there in unity to show how “unshakeable” their bond really is. Rahimi continued his strong rhetoric saying the West is attempting to “isolate Iran economically” to gain control and Syria is a “strong country that is ready to confront any threat and Iran willback Syria with all its means and strength.”
Only hours later Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamdinejad spoke at a celebration being proclaimed ‘National Persian Gulf Day.’ After acknowledging that not only will he be attending the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference in New York, but he will also be part of the committee on the treatment of women (Are you shocked?), Ahamdinejad once again became emboldened and made this inflammatory statement: “Western powers want to dominate the Middle East because it is the center of civilization, culture, foreign affairs and control the world. That by dominating the Middle East, the West hopes to take control of the entire world.”
Folks, what we have here is an extremely volatile situation, waiting to be ignited at any time. Meanwhile, it was just announced by Clinton that the Mideast peace process will restart next week. However, these will not be direct talks with Israel and Palestinians, brokered by the US. Instead, special US envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, will be shuffling between the parties, without bringing them to the negotiating table at the same time. I have seen this stalemate several times already in my lifetime…and it feels like the useless dance is about to begin again.
gulfnews : Iran sends warning with naval exercises
May 1, 2010gulfnews : Iran sends warning with naval exercises.
Iran is anticipating a military attack against its nuclear facilities for a number of reasons, such as the memo presented by the Pentagon to Obama’s office, indirectly criticising the US president for not having a clear strategy for Iran.
- The UN Security Council members, Germany and Israel are the main source of the dangers that may confront Iran because of its insistence on pursuing its nuclear programme.
- Image Credit: LUIS VAZQUEZ/Gulf News
The Iranian naval manoeuvres that were conducted last month in the Gulf differed from the military exercises conducted over the past four years to mark the Revolutionary Guards’ anniversary. This, because they came amidst high tensions between Iran and the West due to Tehran’s nuclear programme and increasingly antagonistic role in the region.
Tehran has justified the manoeuvres by saying that it takes US threats to its national security seriously, especially those related to the new US Nuclear Posture Review. The document lays out a rationale that would justify the use of nuclear weapons, and Iran and North Korea are singled out as potential targets.
It seems the Iranian naval manoeuvres were intended to send a message to the West. Iran is under increasing pressure due to efforts to introduce a fourth round of sanctions and a growing conviction that it may ultimately be necessary to resort to force.
Iran has responded in two main ways. Firstly, the Revolutionary Guards boarded two non-military ships — one Italian and the other French — in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessels were inspected under the pretext of ensuring that they were not carrying materials that could harm the Gulf environment. This move sent a loud and clear message that Iran is prepared to shut down the Strait, which is the vein that carries fuel to the West, and the lifeline of six Arab countries that overlook the Gulf and market their oil through the Strait.
Secondly, Iranian frogmen planted mines in the Strait and other locations in the Gulf in a first of its kind operation under the pretence of protecting the Gulf, as though it were a lake within Iran’s borders. Although the Iranians stressed that their manoeuvres were not intended to threaten their neighbours and were in the interest the region as a whole, it is very difficult to share this view.
Rather than seeking to magnanimously defend the Gulf, Iran is making a statement with these manoeuvres about its readiness to deter any possible aggression against it.
Military threat
The UN Security Council members, Germany and Israel are the main source of the dangers that may confront Iran because of its insistence on pursuing its nuclear programme. Countries such as Russia and China would not go further than supporting sanctions against Iran. However, other countries, such as the US and Israel, could conduct a military operation to terminate or at least hinder Iran’s nuclear programme. Countries such as France may be willing to offer support for such an operation because they are strongly opposed to Iran becoming a nuclear power.
Iran is anticipating a military attack against its nuclear facilities for a number of reasons, such as the memo presented by the Pentagon to Obama’s office, indirectly criticising the US president for not having a clear strategy for Iran. US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates has also said that Iran may be able to manufacture a nuclear weapon within a year. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has claimed that the US and Israel have plans in place to carry out an offensive against Iranian nuclear facilities, warning that such a strike would entail the use of nuclear weapons. And the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, said that a military strike would greatly hinder Iran’s nuclear programme, contrary to what some analysts have said about the ability of Iran’s fortifications to withstand a conventional military offensive.
If the military option is taken, what will Iran do?
Iran cannot defend against a military strike, as it does not have the air force to match the aerial capabilities of the US and Israel. It also does not have the anti-aircraft capabilities to bring down attacking warplanes, as it did not succeed in obtaining Russian S-300 missiles. Furthermore, it does not have the ability to shield itself from long-range missile attacks. It is also inconceivable that the small boats that took part in Iran’s naval manoeuvres would be able to target US warships, as envisaged in their exercises.
So, how will Iran respond in the event of an attack against it?
The US, the country that might conceivably carry out a military offensive against Iran, is far away geographically, out of its reach. But Iran is able to reach US interests and bases in the region, and this is exactly what it is threatening to do. However, these bases are located in the territories of Iran’s neighbours, such as Turkey, Iraq and other Arab Gulf countries. This would make it very difficult for Iranian officials to argue that attacks on them were not attacks on their host countries.
– Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
Syria warns U.S. on accepting Israel scud claims
May 1, 2010Syria warns U.S. on accepting Israel scud claims: Washington Post
Reuters
Saturday, May 1, 2010; 2:41 PM
Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Mualem was quoted by the country’s state news agency (SANA) saying Washington should reject the Israeli accusations that it had given the armed Lebanese Shiite political group the missiles.
“We warn the United States not to adopt false Israeli allegations and we say what destabilizes the security of the region is in fact beefing up Israel with all the latest U.S. weaponry and abetting Israeli allegations at our expense.”
Israeli President Shimon Peres last month accused Syria, which is allied to Iran, of sending Scuds to Hezbollah. Syria says it only gives Hezbollah political backing and that Israel may be using the accusation as a pretext for a military strike.
Israel and Hezbollah fought a month-long war in 2006 during which the guerrilla group fired thousands of mostly short-range Katyusha missiles into the Jewish state. Israel said Damascus and Iran were arming Hezbollah, but did not attack them.
Israel is worried the guerrillas have replenished their arsenal to attack it on Iran’s behalf should Tehran’s nuclear sites come under attack.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s office reiterated that his group would neither confirm or deny whether his guerrilla group had received any weapons.
“To own any weapon is our legal, moral and humanitarian right because we need it to defend honorable people oppressed and threatened by the cancerous existence of the State of Israel,” he told a committee responsible for logistical and financial support for the Iranian-backed group.
Nasrallah said in an interview broadcast on Thursday to Kuwaiti television al-Rai that he did not think the Israeli accusations were a pretext for war.
Speaking in the Estonian capital on Thursday ahead of a NATO meeting, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dodged questions about whether Iran might have given Syria Scud technology ultimately destined for Hezbollah.
“We have expressed directly to the Syrian government … in the strongest possible terms our concerns about these stories that do suggest there has been some transfer of weapons technology into Syria with the potential purpose of then later transferring it to Hezbollah,” Clinton said.
In 2007, Israeli warplanes destroyed a desert complex in Eastern Syria that the United States, Israel’s chief ally, said was an undercover nuclear installation.
Syria said the site was a regular military installation and did not strike back, reserving the right to respond in the appropriate place and time.”
Syria and Iran have also accused Israel of assassinating a top Hezbollah commander in Damascus in 2008.
Iran is going nuclear while Israel gets a bashing
May 1, 2010Iran is going nuclear while Israel gets a bashing – Haaretz – Israel News.
Just as Iran enters a decisive phase in its progress towards the ability to build a nuclear weapon, a bizarre reversal has put Israel’s nuclear program at the top of the agenda as the United Nations begins a review of its global non-proliferation regime in New York on Monday.
The Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which takes place every five years, gathers representatives from 190 countries. Only signatories of the treaty, which was drafted in 1968, came into force in 1970 and was extended in 1995, are entitled to attend. As a result, Israel ? along with Pakistan, India and North Korea ? is forbidden from taking part.
While Israel, through its diplomatic mission at the UN and its International Atomic Energy Agency, will no doubt keep a close eye on proceedings, there remains a fear that Egypt, along with partners in the Arab League and from across the Muslim world, will hijack the conference, turning it into a month-long exercise in bashing Israel.
Three main issues dominate the agenda: Nuclear disarmament, as demanded by paragraph four of the treaty; stopping the spread of atomic weapons; and enhancing the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
This year the treaty parties will meet in an atmosphere of high tension – between the majority bloc of states, known as the Non-Aligned Movement, and a small group of countries who between them have a near-monopoly on nuclear arms and technology. Put simply, this is the same old tension between rich countries and poor ones, between the developed West and the developing East.
The West, led by the United States, hopes to rein in proliferation by stiffening the IAEA’s powers of inspection. In this, they have in mind a dangerous precedent set by Iraq, Syria and Libya ? all signatories to the NPT, yet all of whom ran clandestine nuclear programs under the noses of international inspectors.
The West also has in mind North Korea, whose accession to the treaty did little to stop the country from carrying out two nuclear weapons tests and successfully building a bomb. Western nations also fear Iran, which has repeatedly mocked, defied and ignored both the UN Security Council and the IAEA, and is working systematically toward the point at which – if it chooses – it will be able to build a nuclear weapon.
To prevent this, Western states want to make the IAEA’s powers more binding by enforcing an ‘additional protocol’ to the treaty, allowing unscheduled and more intrusive inspections. They also want to toughen the terms under which a country could leave the NPT, to prevent a ‘break-out’ scenario in which Iran suddenly unveils a nuclear capability, just a North Korea did eight years ago.
Israel might well be happy with this sort of agenda, which chimes closely with its own position. But this year, Israel is not in luck: Egypt, as leader of the Non-Aligned bloc, is working to make its neighbor hostage to the global non-proliferation regime. The Egyptians plan to use this May’s conference to call on Israel to sign the NPT, open its reactor at Dimona to international inspectors and join regional talks to declare the Middle East a ‘nuclear-free zone’ ? talks that would also involve Iran. Cairo has signaled that if its demands are rejected, it may carry its 118 non-aligned allies to obstruct the West’s proposed reforms to the NPT.
Israel, for its part, has been left wondering why the conference has decided to pick on its own particular stance on the NPT, when India and Pakistan are in much the same position. Israel says it has no problem with the idea of a ‘nuclear-free’ Middle East, provided the declaration comes as part of wider package of peace deals and security agreements to rid the region of weapons of mass destruction in all forms, including chemical and biological agents and the missiles that would deliver them.
At the first nuclear review conference in 1995, the Clinton administration approved the meeting’s joint closing statement in its entirety, including a call for a non-nuclear Middle East ? in return for extending the treaty indefinitely. In 2000, Israel did not even make it onto the agenda; while in 2005 the Bush administration was prepared to scotch any Egyptian-Arab-Muslim attempt to engineer ‘linkage’ with Israel, even at the price of the conference failing altogether.
The big question now is how the Obama government, which has made non-proliferation a cornerstone of its foreign policy, will behave. The coming month will reveal how far the United States is prepared to go to protect Israel by blocking resolutions against it, or at least softening their tone.
Abbas asks China to support Iran sanctions as Palestinians would die in ME war
May 1, 2010DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 1, 2010, 11:16 AM (GMT+02:00)

Chinese president Hu Jintao was taken by surprise by the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas’s plea to support tough sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program when they met in Shanghai Saturday, May 1, debkafile‘s Middle East sources reveal. He was even more taken aback by the argument that a Middle East war, a realistic peril in the absence of sanctions, would cost the lives of many Palestinians who would find themselves caught between the belligerents.
Hu received the Palestinian leader after the gala opening of Shanghai World Expo. According to Chinese sources, Abbas explained that for once, most Arab nations – and the Palestinians, most of all – are ranged on the same side as Israel and the West in their profound anxiety about Iran’s nuclear program and the threat it poses of regional violence.
Abbas told the Chinese leader that he spoke on behalf of a majority of Arab rulers, in particular, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, United Arab Emirates president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zaed al-Nahyan and King Abdullah II of Jordan.
Palestinian cities have no defenses against their rockets should Iran and its allies, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas wage war against Israel, he said, and thousands of Palestinians in the line of fire would pay with their lives. He therefore pleaded with President Hu to drop his objections to harsh sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council as the only way to avert a conflict that could spark a Middle East conflagration.
Our sources note that this was the first time a Palestinian leader supported Israel’s position on any Middle East issue, undertaking a mission to China in which several Israeli officials failed earlier this year.
The Chinese leader’s response is not known. However, one of Beijing’s main considerations in opposing painful sanctions against Iran, including an embargo on refined fuel products and arms, is its championship of the Third World nations’ position that Security Council sanctions are a blunt instrument all too often applied by the big powers, especially United States, to bend them to their will.
Abbas’ petition, in fact, complemented and underscored the Obama administration’s case for harsh sanctions against Iran, in terms of economic benefit. Beijing need not fear repercussions from Tehran in terms of its oil supplies, US officials have told Beijing, since Saudi Arabia would be willing to make up any shortfall – and at cheaper prices, to boot.
Abbas’ arguments to Hu reinforced that pledge.
Saturday, too, the Arab League’s monitoring committee was expected to endorse the Palestinian leader’s acceptance of the US plan for launching indirect peace negotiations with Israel. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also voiced confidence Friday, April 30, that proximity talks would begin next week. Next Monday, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu meets Mubarak in Sharm el-Sheikh, before the return to the region of the American Middle East envoy, George Mitchell later in the week.
DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
U.S. Mum During Iran Vote to U.N. Women’s Commission
May 1, 2010FOXNews.com – U.S. Mum During Iran Vote to U.N. Women’s Commission.
High off its success in keeping Iran from joining the U.N.’s Human Rights Council, the U.S. appears to have missed its chance to object to Iran’s selection to the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women, which was affirmed during a so-called U.N. vote this week.
No gesture of disapproval came during an acclamation vote affirming the Islamic Republican’s appointment to the 45-nation group.
A senior official with the U.S. Mission to the U.N. told FoxNews.com that “there is no opportunity” to object. “That is not how the procedure works,” the official said.
The official said that the United States was powerless to stop the selection because Iran faced no competition — a scenario that Iran took advantage of in the 2005 election too.
Iran was one of only two nations that put forward candidates to fill two empty seats for the Asian bloc for the 2011-2015 period during a round of “elections” in which no real votes were cast. The other nation was Thailand.
“Yes, the U.S. government was aware this was a possibility,” said the senior official, who requested anonymity because the agency is not publicly commenting on it. “Procedurally, there was no blocking this.”
As at most such commissions in the U.N., backroom deals determined who would gain new seats at the women’s rights body.
The decision to move to the commission was something of a booby prize for Iran, which the United States lobbied against when Iran sought a seat on the 47-member Human Rights Council. The United States worked with a broad range of other countries “to make it clear to Iran” that it was not going to win a seat on the Human Rights Council.
“We considered that a success,” the official said. “But progress takes time in undoing their seat on the women’s commission.”
Iran has served on the women’s commission for successive terms since 1990.
The Obama administration sought a seat on the Human Rights Council last year, reversing the Bush administration’s policy to boycott the body to protest the influence of repressive states.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice said Friday that U.S. engagement on the council helped prevent Iran from gaining a seat.
“I think it’s notable that many countries joined with the United States in making the point to a broad swath of countries around the world that country such as Iran, which had sought a seat on the Human Rights Council in the upcoming election next month and campaigned hard for it, did not merit membership given its human rights record in general, and in particular what has transpired over the course of last year,” she said.
Rice didn’t comment on Iran’s selection to the women’s commission.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Right and Oversight, blasted the silence of the U.S. to Iran’s selection, saying it is the U.S official position “to be pleasant with gangsters.”
“Iran is the best example. This is yet another example of that strategy. It’s part of the theory of hug-a-Nazi-make-a-liberal. If you treat gangsters in a pleasant way and watch out for their sensitivity, they’ll reform their ways,” he told FoxNews.com.
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the U.S. should leverage its contributions to the U.N. “to help produce effective, transparent, and accountable U.N. programs which can help women and others around the globe.”
“The U.N.’s apologists must have thought that since Iran withdrew, under pressure, from the Human Rights Council race, we would not notice this latest abomination. They were wrong,” she said in a written statement.
“That an Iranian regime that shoots and stones women would be ‘elected’ to a U.N. body supposedly dedicated to women’s rights adds a whole new disgusting twist to the ongoing saga of Iran exploiting the U.N,” she said.
A high-ranking State Department official told FoxNews.com that Iran’s selection to the commission isn’t as bad as it appears.
“We’re not going to stand up and cheer,” the official said. “By the same token, that is less onerous than the Human Rights Council because women in Iran, relative to other countries in the region, actually have greater rights.”
“You don’t have women placed in head-to-toe burkas in that country,” the official said. “You have women elected to the legislature in the country.”
The official acknowledged the death Neda Agha-Soltan, an Iranian woman who was killed during a post election anti-government protest.
“She was killed because she was a protestor, not because she was a woman,” the official said. “I’m not saying we can take Iran and compare them to the human rights record of any country in the developed world. But in that region, women in Iran have a greater opportunity for education, for business and to participate in politics.”
The official with the U.S. Mission told FoxNews.com that the United States is trying to make elections to U.N. seats more competitive.
Membership on the status of women’s commission is based on the number of countries in a region, no matter how small a country’s population or how scant its respect for rights. The commission is currently made up of 13 members from Africa, 11 from Asia, nine from Latin America and the Caribbean, eight from Western Europe and North America and four from Eastern Europe.
Iran’s election comes just a week after one of its senior clerics declared that women who wear revealing clothing are to blame for earthquakes, a statement that created an international uproar — but had little effect on Tehran’s bid to become an international arbiter of women’s rights.
“Many women who do not dress modestly … lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which (consequently) increases earthquakes,” said Iranian cleric Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi.
That was followed by threats from Tehran’s police chief that women who are tan will be arrested and imprisoned for violating the spirit of Islamic law.
The Commission on the Status of Women is supposed to conduct review of nations that violate women’s rights, issue reports detailing their failings and monitor success in improving women’s equality.
Yet critics of Iran’s human rights record say the country has taken “every conceivable step” to deter women’s equality.
The official with the U.S. Mission told FoxNews.com that the United States takes the commission seriously.
“It’s important,” the official said. “They do important work for issues crucial to women all over the world. It’s something that we certainly pay attention to.”



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